The 2023 NFL season gets underway Thursday night as the Detroit Lions take on the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs. But before we think about whether Patrick Mahomes can lead his team to back-to-back titles, The Ringer’s NFL writers came together to predict which teams will make the playoffs and who will come away with awards at the end of the season. Here’s what they came up with.
Playoff Predictions and Super Bowl Winner
Nora Princiotti: I tried pretty hard to talk myself out of picking the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl because it’s a little boring on paper. You’re the best team in football, we get it already! But … they’re the best team in football. The Cowboys, despite the fact that they are always doing weird stuff like having Dak Prescott call plays during the preseason or trading for Trey Lance, have the best roster in the NFC and made impactful additions on both sides of the ball this offseason with Brandin Cooks and Stephon Gilmore. The defense should be ready to cook, and the biggest problem on offense last year, Prescott’s habit of throwing interceptions, is an outlier compared to the rest of his career. [Looks nervously at Mike McCarthy.]
Ben Solak: I am picking the team with Patrick Mahomes to win the Super Bowl, and I will likely do so for the foreseeable future.
Steven Ruiz: We can save everyone a bunch of time by penciling in the Chiefs as my Super Bowl pick every season for the next decade. Actually, let’s say two decades just to be on the safe side. I went with chalk across the board in the AFC but picked new division winners in three of the four NFC divisions. It might take Kyle Shanahan a month or two to realize that the best quarterback on his team is currently riding the bench. That’s a tease for my award picks.
Sheil Kapadia: It’s the Bengals’ time. Joe Burrow has been knocking on the door the last two seasons, and now he’s ready to pocket his first Lombardi Trophy. Cincinnati has a great trio of wide receivers, this will be the deepest offensive line that Burrow has played behind, and defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo has shown an ability to get creative with his game-planning against the NFL’s best quarterbacks. The Bengals are a complete team that can win in different ways, and they’re willing to evolve when necessary. But let’s be real. The bottom line here is that I just trust Burrow.
Danny Kelly: The Eagles lost a few key defensive pieces in free agency, but their high-powered offense should be able to pick up some of the slack this year. With Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert leading the way, Philly’s going to impose its will on opponents from start to finish.
Danny Heifetz: Everyone is out on the Bills after they got rocked by Cincinnati in the divisional round. But the Bills haven’t had their three best defenders—safeties Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer plus cornerback Tre’Davious White—all on the field in nearly two years. With that trio together again and working behind a deep stable of pass rushers, plus a sharper red zone offense in 2023, Buffalo can reach juggernaut status.
Lindsay Jones: We have reached “I am not betting against Mahomes” territory. If last year taught me anything, it’s not to underestimate the Chiefs, and while the AFC playoffs will be a gauntlet this season, it feels foolish (albeit boring) to pick anyone else. Mahomes is the best player on the planet, and it’ll take a perfect game from any of the other quarterbacks in the league to knock him and the Chiefs off their perch.
Austin Gayle: It’s Mahomes’s league until proven otherwise, and I like the Cowboys to upset the Eagles in the NFC championship game this season. Prescott has quickly become one of the most underrated quarterbacks in football.
MVP
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Gayle: Mahomes is the obvious choice here. The only reason to bet against him is voter fatigue. He has now won it twice in five years and would be just the seventh player of all time with at least three MVPs if (when) he earns his next one. But screw the voters who are losing interest in Mahomes. Enjoy his peak with the rest of us, and hand him all the MVPs he deserves.
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Jones: The bar for Mahomes to win his third MVP award is unbelievably high. Not only does he have to be better than every other quarterback in the league, he also has to be markedly better than the previous versions of himself. For that reason, I think a new quarterback will win it this year, and it’s Burrow. He’s got the elite receivers to help him put up big numbers, he’s playing behind an upgraded offensive line, and he’ll play big in big moments. Plus, the Bengals are going to be good—all the things you need for a strong MVP case.
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
Heifetz: Fourteen of the past 16 MVPs have been quarterbacks whose teams earned a first-round bye. So to find the next MVP, just look at the teams you think will earn a first-round bye and pick the one whose quarterback will get the credit. That’s Hurts.
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Kelly: Hurts is one of the most unique and multitalented playmakers in the NFL, combining big-play prowess as a passer and toughness as a runner. His skill set is a force multiplier for Philly: His ability to freeze unblocked defenders on option run plays buys the Eagles a de facto extra blocker on offense, and his ability to convert on fourth downs with the “tush push” play can give the team an extra down to work with. He’s the straw that stirs the drink for one of the best offenses in the NFL, and he is the edge Philly needs to win it all this year.
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
Kapadia: The Jaguars got Lawrence a competent coach last year, and he threw for 4,113 yards, with 25 touchdowns and eight interceptions. That was his age-23 season! With wide receiver Calvin Ridley now in the fold, the offense should be even more potent. Lawrence will put up monster numbers, and the Jaguars have a chance to be a top-two seed in the AFC. Those are generally the pieces you need to get into the MVP conversation.
Ruiz: I cashed in all the “Trevor Lawrence is actually good” stock I bought last offseason, and now I’m investing that into “Trevor for MVP” stock. Lawrence was playing like a fringe top-five quarterback by the end of last season and has looked even sharper during the preseason. Now he has a legit no. 1 receiver in Ridley; he’s in his second year in Doug Pederson’s offense, which should naturally lead to improvement; and the Jaguars will win enough games to keep him in the race. I could go on and on about why he will win the award, but just take my word for it: It’s happening.
Princiotti: Quietly, Lawrence picked up a couple of MVP votes last year after leading the Jaguars on an 8-2 tear to end the 2022 season. With that experience, the addition of Ridley to an offense that needed a speedy, savvy route runner to stretch the field, and an easy path through the AFC South, Lawrence is ready for a coronation.
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Solak: All things being equal, Mahomes is the player who’s most likely to win MVP. But I picked the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl, and that’s already boring. So I’ll cast a vote for Jackson here. He has already won the award once, so we know he’s capable—and if the reconstruction of the Ravens’ passing game is successful in year one, Jackson should reestablish himself as the greatest dual-threat quarterback in the league.
Offensive Player of the Year
Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings
Jones: The weirdest award on the NFL ballot. If Tyreek Hill backs up his talk and goes for 2,000 receiving yards, he’ll win this. But I don’t think that’ll happen, so I’m picking the NFL’s best and most complete receiver: Jefferson.
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Kapadia: A nugget I’ve repeated roughly 400 times this summer: There are three examples in NFL history of a quarterback who threw for at least 4,000 yards and rushed for at least 700. Cam Newton did it in 2015, and Allen has done it in back-to-back seasons. Oftentimes, this award goes to the best running back or wide receiver. But if there’s a dual-threat quarterback who puts up monster numbers and doesn’t win MVP, he should get consideration. I think Allen could fit that description.
Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers
Ruiz: After McCaffrey settled in with the 49ers last season, Shanahan just started repeatedly pounding the “Feed CMC” button on his play-calling sheet. OK, that’s a little reductive; Shanahan did some other things, too. But the 49ers offense was certainly McCaffrey-centric down the stretch. Not much has changed with San Francisco’s QB situation since then. Brock Purdy was the starter for most of those games, and the offense will likely look the same as it did when we last saw it in January. Shanahan will ride McCaffrey all year, in both the run and pass games. If he’s healthy, a 2,000-all-purpose-yard season is not out of the question.
Solak: I think McCaffrey might have another 1,000-1,000 season—something he did in 2019 for only the third time in league history. Last year, in 11 games with the Niners, McCaffrey was on pace for 1,100 rushing yards and 700 receiving yards. It’s doable, and it would win him the award.
Heifetz: McCaffrey and these 49ers might have the best mix of skill set, coaching fit, and surrounding talent since Randy Moss on the 2007 Patriots.
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Kelly: Jackson’s numbers will explode in the up-tempo, spread-out schemes that Todd Monken is bringing to Baltimore. He’ll benefit from having the best pass-catching group of his career around him, too.
Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints
Princiotti: It’s a little dramatic to proclaim this as the year the league finds out about Olave since it’s only his second season. But … this will be the year the league finds out about Olave.
Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals
Gayle: No player has won back-to-back Offensive Player of the Year awards since Marshall Faulk did it with the St. Louis Rams in 1999, 2000, and 2001. That’s at least part of the reason why Chase, not Jefferson, is the narrow favorite to win OPOY for 2023. Chase is one of the league’s premier talents, he has yet to win the award, and now Burrow is back practicing after suffering a calf injury early in camp. Let Chase be the voters’ change-of-pace pick even when Jefferson goes for another 1,400-plus yards.
Defensive Player of the Year
Micah Parsons, Dallas Cowboys
Princiotti: The Dallas defense will be a force this season under Dan Quinn, and Parsons has been building to this kind of leaguewide recognition.
Gayle: I’d take Parsons over any defensive player in the league right now. He hasn’t even played the same position in back-to-back seasons yet and is still as much of, if not more than, a game wrecker as recent DPOY winners like Myles Garrett, T.J. Watt, and Nick Bosa. Parsons finished second in voter share for DPOY in each of his first two years in the league; the 24-year-old phenom is—somehow—long overdue.
Ruiz: He was already the best edge defender in the league as a part-timer. Now that he’s finally outgrown the linebacker phase and is fully focusing on rushing the passer, he might mount a challenge to Aaron Donald’s best NFL defender title. Parsons is a prototype for the edge position. He’s a long athlete with overwhelming strength and a motor that never stalls out. He’s also obsessed with getting better, so I’d expect to see him add a few new moves to his bag this season.
Solak: I really thought Parsons won this award last year. So much so that I’ve said, on multiple podcasts this offseason, that he won the award. Turns out it was Nick Bosa. Anyway, Parsons should win it this year.
Myles Garrett, Cleveland Browns
Kapadia: He’s pretty much been an elite defensive player since he entered the league in 2017. Garrett had 16 sacks in 16 games last season. I think he can be even better this year, now that the Browns have given him more help with their additions on the defensive line. Cleveland’s defense will be one of the NFL’s surprise units this year, and Garrett will lead the way with a career season.
Jones: Garrett is the most accomplished defensive player in the league not to have won this award, and I think with the coaching change from Joe Woods to Jim Schwartz, he will be set up for a ridiculous season. He’ll have to be in the 18-plus sack range to take this home, especially if the Browns are merely average to above average overall, but I like his chances.
T.J. Watt, Pittsburgh Steelers
Kelly: A torn pectoral robbed Watt of a chance for back-to-back Defensive Player of the Year awards, but the Steeler defender can secure the honors again this year. Watt led the NFL in both sacks and tackles for loss in his last two healthy seasons (2021 and 2020), and if he can stay on the field this year, he’ll have a shot at doing that again.
Heifetz: DPOY is about (1) being Aaron Donald or (2) leading the NFL in sacks. Donald’s surrounded by so many rookies on defense this season that he is basically babysitting. That leaves Watt, who won this award in 2021.
Coach of the Year
Sean Payton, Denver Broncos
Kapadia: Important life lesson for the kids reading: You always want to be replacing the train wreck. Expectations will be low, and even a little bit of success will feel like a miracle. Enter Payton! The Broncos were a bad team last year, but they were also an unlucky team. Payton’s one of the best coaches of the last 25 years. The pieces are in place for a quick turnaround. It feels like if the Broncos make the playoffs, Payton’s a lock. I just hope he doesn’t flame Nathaniel Hackett during his acceptance speech.
Kelly: I have a hard time believing Russell Wilson is completely cooked. If Payton can resurrect Wilson’s career after his atrocious 2022 season—and breathe new life into this Broncos team—he’d be my pick here.
Matt LaFleur, Green Bay Packers
Jones: I picked the Packers to be a wild-card team out of the NFC, and this pick is an extension of that. If Green Bay is even good this year, it will be because of the job LaFleur has done coaching Jordan Love. (If Love is bad or merely mediocre, please forget I said anything.)
Ruiz: LaFleur nearly got his team to the playoffs with a broken version of Aaron Rodgers and a disjointed offensive roster last season. I don’t think Love has to be that good for the Packers to make a run at the postseason, and if they do in their first season without the four-time MVP under center, LaFleur is the obvious pick for the award.
DeMeco Ryans, Houston Texans
Heifetz: The real Coach of the Year award is called the Lombardi Trophy. This award is usually for coaches who take over a team we thought was awful and that still surprisingly makes the playoffs. If there’s a team that can do that, it’s Ryans’s Texans.
Mike McDaniel, Miami Dolphins
Princiotti: No team that’s been through as much recent turmoil as the Dolphins have (much of it their own creation) has aspirations as high as Miami’s, a Super Bowl contender if Tua Tagovailoa is healthy. The offense can build on what it did in 2022 if Tagovailoa is on the field. And McDaniel, unlike, say, Robert Saleh, is positioned to get the credit if this goes well.
Arthur Smith, Atlanta Falcons
Solak: I think Smith is a great coach. His offenses impress me every year, and he often squeezes more production out of less firepower than any other coach in the league. Well, this year, Bijan Robinson joins Drake London and Kyle Pitts. There’s enough here for Smith to build a top offense—an NFC South–winning offense. And if he does, he deserves the award to acknowledge it.
Dan Campbell, Detroit Lions
Gayle: Campbell is FanDuel’s favorite to win Coach of the Year, and his team is favored to win a division it’s literally never won. (In 1993, the last time the Lions won their division, it was called NFC Central.) What could go wrong?
Comeback Player of the Year
Damar Hamlin, Buffalo Bills
Jones: It’s Hamlin, and the Associated Press should probably just collect our ballots in this category today.
Princiotti: Has there been an easier call in NFL award history?
Kapadia: What is there to say, really? I don’t care if he plays a snap for the Bills. I’m just thrilled that he has the choice to decide how he wants to live his life and what makes him happy after last season’s scare.
Heifetz: Can you imagine someone voting against Hamlin for this award?
Sam Darnold, San Francisco 49ers
Ruiz: I refuse to believe that we live in a world where Purdy is a longtime starter. I will not let Shanahan gaslight me! Purdy was a seventh-round pick for a reason! Darnold is the most talented quarterback Shanahan has had in San Francisco! That’s too many exclamation points. I need to settle down. But, really, I’m concerned that Purdy’s runaround style will get him into trouble. Especially in this system, which can expose quarterbacks to hits. Darnold will play at some point this season, and Shanahan has a habit of bringing the best out of quarterbacks. If we do see Darnold’s best—remember, he was the third overall pick in 2018 for a reason—he’s probably not giving that job up.
Odell Beckham Jr., Baltimore Ravens
Kelly: We haven’t seen Beckham since he tore his ACL midway through Super Bowl LVI. But reports out of training camp have been terrific, and Beckham should be a go-to guy for Jackson in the team’s new offensive scheme. If he can post his first 1,000-yard season since 2019, he may get this award.
Mekhi Becton, New York Jets
Solak: Becton is a hugely important player for the Jets this year. Offensive tackle is the biggest question mark on their roster, in large part because Becton has missed 33 of the last 34 games with knee injuries. But man, when Becton can play, at his size, with his movement skills? It’s a sight to see; it really is.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
Solak: Richardson will start 17 games and rack up some wild yardage as a rusher. If he’s even halfway functional as a passer, then the production is gonna be impressive. There are lots of great candidates for Offensive Rookie of the Year, but Richardson’s splashiness might separate him from the rest.
Kelly: Richardson will take his lumps as a passer, I’m sure, as most rookie quarterbacks do. But I think with Shane Steichen calling plays for the Colts, Richardson will get tons of opportunities to run the ball. A 1,000-yard rushing season isn’t out of the question.
Princiotti: If Jim Irsay doesn’t find a way to mess this up, the things Richardson and Steichen should be able to do together are exciting, and Richardson had the most exciting flashes from a rookie QB in preseason action.
Ruiz: Richardson fulfills all of my requirements for this award:
- Quarterback ✓
- Doesn’t play for the Texans ✓
- Not historically tiny ✓
Gayle: Richardson will throw a ton of picks, but he’ll also put up a ton of points. He has the best supporting cast of any of the starting rookie quarterbacks, and his significant rushing upside should only help him get an edge over the current favorite to win the award, Bijan Robinson.
Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons
Jones: I went through a lot of mental gymnastics trying to make the case for each of the rookie quarterbacks, but I just couldn’t get there. Ultimately, it’ll come down to two rookie running backs (See, running backs do matter! But only if they’re on a rookie deal, apparently.), and I’ll take Robinson over the Lions’ Jahmyr Gibbs, if only because I have confidence in the cool and interesting ways the Falcons will use Robinson.
Heifetz: Rookies of the year are either QBs or skill players who are cool. The rookie QBs are in tough spots to win games. Robinson is cool.
Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings
Kapadia: He should get plenty of advantageous matchups playing opposite Jefferson, and I expect the Vikings to field a competent offense. Adam Thielen had more than 100 targets last year, and Addison’s replacing him. In other words, the opportunities will be there. I think he’ll take advantage of them.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
Will Anderson, Houston Texans
Kelly: These awards are all about filling up the stat sheet, and Anderson should do that as a day one starter for the Texans. He’s a twitched-up rusher who can play on all three downs.
Christian Gonzalez, New England Patriots
Princiotti: Gonzalez put on a show during training camp in New England before a minor leg injury slowed him down. As long as that doesn’t affect him during the regular season, the interception opportunities he should get as a man cornerback in Bill Belichick’s defense could make him a household name very quickly.
Ruiz: This race was dominated by two cornerbacks last year, and I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s the case this year. I’ll take Gonzalez as my pick. He’s playing under Belichick, who can still coach up a defensive back with the best of them, and he’s playing on what should be one of the better defenses in the NFL this year. Gonzalez has a habit of finding the ball, which should also help his case. Voters love interceptions.
Jalen Carter, Philadelphia Eagles
Kapadia: Rookie defensive tackles don’t typically put up big numbers right away, but Carter has a chance to be an exception. The Eagles lost Javon Hargrave in free agency and need to find an interior pass rush from somewhere. Teams were obviously scared off by Carter’s off-field issues at Georgia, but this summer has gone well for him, and Eagles veterans have been buzzing about how impressive he’s been on the field.
Solak: Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh won this award with nine and 10 sacks, respectively. I don’t know whether there are 10 sacks to go around on the Eagles’ loaded pass rush, but I do know that coming out of college, Carter reminded me of Suh. If he hits double-digit sacks in year one—and boy, are the Eagles excited about his preseason momentum—he’ll join those elite defensive tackles with this award.
Jones: Carter is athletic and explosive and will have the opportunity to play in high-profile moments that will capture voters’ attention.
Heifetz: It is hard to imagine another rookie making a larger impact immediately than Carter, who will create havoc on Philly’s defensive line.
Gayle: This was Jalen Carter’s first NFL snap. I’ve seen all I need to see.