One more game! Super Bowl LVII is finally here. After two weeks of hype and analysis, it’s time to go on the record with a winner between the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs.
Lines are from FanDuel as of Thursday night. Stats are from TruMedia/Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted.
Championship round: 1-1
Season record: 146-130-7
Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5)
What’s the case for the Chiefs?
It’s not all that complicated. There’s a scenario where the Eagles defense simply doesn’t have an answer for Patrick Mahomes. As I outlined earlier this week, Mahomes doesn’t have bad games. His worst game this season qualified as an average game for most starting quarterbacks. The Eagles defense has been very good all season, but they haven’t been tested by great quarterbacks. In Week 16, Dak Prescott threw for 347 yards against the Eagles, and the Cowboys put up 40 points. An offensive performance like that by the Chiefs would not be surprising.
Two years ago, the Chiefs lost the Super Bowl to the Bucs because they couldn’t protect Mahomes, and the decisions they made to rebuild their offensive line in the seasons since were a direct result of that game. Andy Reid will go into this matchup with priority no. 1 being to not let the Eagles’ pass rush wreck the game. That could mean getting the ball out of Mahomes’s hands quickly or helping the tackles in protection. I feel irrationally confident that we’ll see a running back screen on the first possession.
Bottom line: The Chiefs have had the best offense in the NFL all season, and it hasn’t been close. There’s no real reason to think they will struggle to move the ball in this game, unless Mahomes’s ankle injury turns out to be a major issue.
Defensively, the Chiefs are not great. But defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will do his best to mess with the Eagles’ protection and set up one-on-one opportunities for defensive tackle Chris Jones. And don’t be surprised if the Chiefs blitz more than they have all season. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles offense have struggled at times to find answers against pressure looks. Spagnuolo has a history of coming up with one-off game plans that are effective. They don’t need to completely shut the Eagles offense down; they just need to get enough stops for Mahomes to work his magic.
The Chiefs are a nearly impossible team to put away. No team has beaten them by more than four points all season. Mahomes has started 93 games in his career, and his teams have either had a lead or been within one score in 90 of those games. A win for Kansas City would likely mean Mahomes delivering an MVP performance and Spagnuolo coming up with enough wrinkles to keep the Eagles offense in check.
What’s the case for the Eagles?
They’re 16-1 with Hurts as their starting quarterback. What’s been most impressive about the Eagles offense is that it always manages to find answers. There have been occasions this year where it has seemed like opposing defenses figured out ways to stop them, but the Eagles’ coaching staff always found a counter. In the 17 games they played this year with Hurts, including two postseason contests, the offense ranked second in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric—behind only the Chiefs.
The backbone of the Eagles is their offensive line. Because of the five guys up front and Hurts, they’ve shown they can run on pretty much anyone. It’s a diverse run game too. They can employ different schemes based on the defensive looks they’re getting. But if an opponent is going to load up to stop the run, the Eagles aren’t going to keep running just to run. They’ll turn to their run-pass options or take shots one-on-one on the outside to A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.
Defensively, the Eagles’ profile sets them up well for this matchup. They rank first in DVOA against the pass, and the game plan here will likely be to dare Andy Reid and the Chiefs to lean on their run game. Expect the Eagles to play with light boxes and deep safeties. Mahomes had 73 completions of 20-plus yards during the regular season—16 more than any other quarterback. The Eagles, as they always do, will prioritize limiting explosive plays in the passing game.
Meanwhile, they’ll rely on their pass rush to produce negative plays. The Eagles have sacked opposing quarterbacks on 11.5 percent of their pass plays—the highest mark of any defense since at least 2000. The difference in sack rate between the Eagles and no. 2 Patriots this season was the same as the difference between the Patriots and the no. 29 Bengals. This game isn’t about getting Mahomes off his spot or making him feel uncomfortable. He is a master at escaping pressure and creating out of structure. For the Eagles, it’s all about finishing and bringing him down when they get the chance.
The Eagles have shown that they can win in different ways. But the most likely path to victory is one where their offensive line dominates, they run the ball well, and they take advantage of one-on-one chances with Brown, Smith, and tight end Dallas Goedert. Defensively, it’s not about shutting Mahomes down, because that’s an impossible task. It’s about producing enough negative plays with their pass rush to give the offense a chance to win it.
Who you got?
This is such a tough game to pick. Betting against Mahomes as an underdog feels foolish and uncomfortable. Just having him on the field gives the Chiefs such a high floor. They can be down big, but there’s always a chance that Mahomes could do something miraculous to get them right back in it.
But the Eagles have a few things going for them. One, they’re the more talented team. If you put together a starting lineup of 22 players from both these teams, I think you’d probably end up with 13 or 14 Eagles and eight or nine Chiefs. Two, the Eagles have benefited from some of the best injury luck you’ll ever see. They are expected to have all 22 regular starters available for this game. And three, they should have an in-game coaching edge. I think Andy Reid has the advantage with game-planning during the week, but in terms of making smart, aggressive in-game decisions, Nick Sirianni has been better.
I think both offenses will move the ball consistently in this game, but there could be a lot of long drives that limit the total number of possessions. I see a tight game in the fourth quarter, but the Eagles get the ball back while trailing 25-24 with about four minutes left. They grind away and never give Mahomes another chance. Kicker Jake Elliott nails the game-winning field goal as time expires. Eagles 27, Chiefs 25.
The pick: Eagles (-1.5)
