The Hot Read, Week 10: The AFC Playoff Picture Has Never Been More Crowded
There are more Super Bowl contenders than there are playoff spots in the AFC. Plus: why Trevor Lawrence isn’t the problem in Jacksonville, Kyler Murray’s return, the end of Mac Jones in New England, award picks, and more.
This is the Hot Read. In this column, you’ll find everything and anything I found interesting from the NFL Week 10 Sunday action. There’s the stuff that everyone’s talking about, and the stuff that nobody’s talking about; the stuff that makes football incredible, and the stuff that makes football fun. I hope you enjoy it and learn something cool—and if you do, I hope you’re back next week, when we do it all again.
The Big Thing: AFC? More Like A-Mess-C
A lot happened in the NFL on Sunday. If there’s one thing you need to know, it’s this.
In the preseason run-up to the 2023 NFL season, the top-loaded AFC was the talk of the town. Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert—five of the six or seven best quarterbacks in the league were in the same conference. Throw in Trevor Lawrence and the ascending Jags, Tua Tagovailoa and that Dolphins offense, and the Aaron Rodgers–led Jets, and the AFC had more potential Super Bowl teams than it had playoff spots to offer.
Ten weeks into the regular season, and the conference is delivering.
Throw out the AFC West, which the 7-2 Chiefs (best record in the conference, by the way) are winning by 2.5 games. Every other division in the AFC is a one- or half-game race. In the North, the Ravens were one of the hottest teams, and on Sunday they led the divisional-rival Browns 31-17 with 11 minutes left in the fourth quarter. One unfortunate Obo Okoronkwo helmet PBU turned Greg Newsome II pick-six turned the tide, and the Ravens dropped to 7-3, only a half game ahead of 6-3 Cleveland.
It was inevitable that the Ravens would drop a game or two down the stretch, given how tough their remaining schedule is—especially the divisional games. They’ve already dropped one to the Steelers, who are 6-3 after (another!) one-score victory over the Packers, 23-19.
The Steelers have now been outgained in every single game they’ve played this season, yet they are currently slated to make the playoffs. Mike Tomlin is now 48-22-2 in one-score games over the past seven seasons. It’s safe to say that the Steelers are immortal. Tomlin could jump off a cliff, and he’d inevitably land safely thanks to a key second-half turnover.
That puts the 5-4 Bengals last in the division. (Though Cincinnati was 5-4 through nine games last season and ended on a 7-0 tear to win the North, so who’s really counting them out?) Cincinnati dropped its game on Sunday to the greatest AFC disruptor this season: the Houston Texans.
The Texans are uproarious fun. Everything that is good about modern football—quarterbacks in command, high-octane passing offenses, aggressive defenses, sick pass rushers—is on this Texans team. Jonathan Greenard and Will Anderson Jr. are one of the top pass-rushing duos; Sheldon Rankins (who went off against Cincinnati) and Jerry Hughes help fill out the unit. Young defenders like Derek Stingley Jr., Jalen Pitre, and Christian Harris are flying around and hitting in the spirit of their head coach, DeMeco Ryans, whose defenses in San Francisco always did exactly that: fly around and hit like mad.
And on offense? Rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud delivered his second game-winning drive in as many weeks. Noah Brown delivered his second 150-yard receiving performance in as many weeks (he had never had over 100 yards in 69 previous career games). The Texans are shredding opposing defenses with Devin Singletary and Dalton Schultz.
Now 5-4 with wins this season over the Bengals and Jaguars (who are 6-3 after an enormous loss to the 49ers), the Texans must be taken seriously. They get the Kyler Murray–led Cardinals this upcoming Sunday, which is not an opponent to be taken lightly; the following week, they get the Jaguars at home. With a win, they’d own the tiebreaker against Jacksonville for the division title. Besides Jacksonville, the only team remaining on the Texans’ schedule with a winning record is the Browns.
Houston has a schedule that would turn even an average team into a 10-win team. But they also play like a legit 10-win team. And in a poor division with a vulnerable Jacksonville squad, they might have a home playoff game, too.
If the Texans are the great overachiever of the 2023 AFC playoff race, the Buffalo Bills are perhaps the great underachiever. Buffalo doesn’t play until Monday night against the Broncos, but at 5-4, it currently sits outside the playoff picture, with games against the Eagles, Chiefs, and Cowboys all remaining on its schedule. In the AFC East the Bills are a game behind the Dolphins, whom they’ve beaten head-to-head, and their offense is one of the best by most metrics—but so is the Dolphins offense, and while Buffalo’s defense suffers unending injuries, Miami’s is improving.
The Ringer’s 2024 NFL Rankings
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Eleven of the 16 teams in the conference are .500 or better. But it isn’t just the record of the teams; it’s the quality of the quarterbacks. The list of quarterbacks whom you can never count out of any game is pretty short, but at least four of them—Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, and Jackson—are in the AFC. Sure, two of them lost on Sunday, but one of those losses was to a rising star at the position in Stroud; the other to Deshaun Watson and the Browns, who have spent the money and acquired stars to build an elite offense themselves, even if it hasn’t happened yet.
The upper echelon is so crowded, someone who deserves to go far is gonna get knocked off in the wild-card round; heck, someone who deserves to go far won’t even make the playoffs. Someone will have a stellar passing performance in a decisive game late in the regular season or early in the playoffs, and it just won’t matter at all—think Allen and Mahomes in the infamous 42-36 game, but every week, around every corner. It’s as Syndrome told Mr. Incredible: When everyone’s super, no one is.
For now, this is very stressful for me. It’s my job to figure out who’s gonna win this conference, and I’ve got no idea. But come wild-card weekend, when I get to watch Ravens-Bills, Dolphins-Jags, and Texans-Bengals—or some other group of matchups that are equally exciting—on consecutive days? I’ll absolutely love it.
Until then? Bengals-Ravens on Thursday Night Football. Yes, please.
The Little Things
It’s the little things in football that matter the most—zany plays, small victories, and some laughs. Here’s where you can find them.
1. THE MOVE David Montgomery hit on this 75-yard touchdown run
The Lions’ two-headed backfield of Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs finally looks how the Lions long envisioned it would, now that Montgomery is healthy and Gibbs has settled into his rookie season. This was always supposed to be a thunder-and-lightning approach, but Montgomery brought his own lightning on a largely untouched 75-yard touchdown run.
Two things to watch for here. The first is the move that Montgomery puts on corner Deane Leonard and safety Alohi Gilman at the 40-yard line. Nothing sicker than a pileup left in your wake, especially for a back not known for his speed or agility. It’s lost in the Gibbs pick and his injury, but Montgomery is playing the best ball of his career.
The second thing: the speed of Jameson Williams to get ahead of Montgomery and seal off his alley for the touchdown. Williams’s career has been really rough, but that’s a high-effort, heady play for a second-year pro.
2. JUSTIN HERBERT throwing the seam
I’m pretty done trying to defend Herbert, who is clearly doing his best on a 4-5 Chargers team that can’t protect, can’t run the football, can’t keep healthy wide receivers on the field, and certainly can’t defend. (I’m not at all done defending him and will do so, fervently, at the drop of a hat. He isn’t the problem!)
What nobody can argue against is that this dude throws one of the prettiest seam balls in the NFL. When the Chargers get to the red zone, they run more patterns up the seams than any other offense because Herbert is one of few quarterbacks with a quick enough processor and strong enough arm to hammer those throws into such tight windows.
So, no more Chargers takes. No more explanations and contexts. Just sitting happily and watching the big quarterback throw the little ball real fast.
Look at the running start the safety has as he rotates pre-snap! He’s coming in with velocity!
Wait. No. That’s context. None of that. Happy big-arm throw man.
3. THE CORRECT HAND with which to carry the football
Do you remember this fumble for Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder? And, more important, do you remember what your peewee coach taught you about which arm to carry the ball in?
Always carry the ball with the sideline arm! All to avoid plays like this one, from Week 7.
Ridder lost his starting job in large part because of his red zone turnovers, but on Sunday, Taylor Heinicke went down with an injury and Ridder was thrust back into the action, and look at what the young quarterback did on his go-ahead touchdown run.
He got the ball in the correct arm! It really is the little things.
The Zag: Trevor Lawrence Isn’t at Fault in Jacksonville
I tend to be a little contrarian. It’s not so much a personal choice as it is an occupational hazard. Here’s where I’ll plant my flag.
The Jaguars got molly-whopped by the 49ers: 34-3 in their home stadium. The Niners were trying to force-feed Christian McCaffrey a touchdown late just to keep his streak alive. Just a straight disrespectful beatdown.
Now, the Jaguars are 6-3—going back to last season, the Jaguars are 14-6 in their past 20 games, including the 7-2 finish to last season that gave them their playoff berth and the huge comeback win against the Chargers in the wild-card round. They have been, in general, a very good team over a sizable sample. This week, they ran into a 49ers team that had lost three straight but had used its bye week to return key offensive stars in Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams. Sometimes, you’re on the receiving end of some other team’s get-right game.
That has not stopped some folks from using this game as the final straw in a Lawrence referendum.
Overall, this isn’t the worst take. The Jaguars are 10th in defensive turnover expected points added, so they’re getting above-average value out of takeaways. And Lawrence has been remarkably less productive this season than he was last season.
Trevor Lawrence by Year
Now, because Lawrence was billed as a generational prospect entering the league, it feels like he’s underperforming anytime he doesn’t, well … do generational things. Win all of the games, score all of the points, et cetera.
The hope was that Lawrence would enter the league in his rookie season with a bang—think the way his divisional contemporary C.J. Stroud did this season. But Lawrence was on a noxious Urban Meyer–led team as a rookie, so his ballyhooed debut fell flat. Year two was supposed to be a get-right year for Lawrence, and after a bumpy start, it was. Lawrence was playing star-level football down 2022’s stretch.
So why the step back in year three? Well, in his third season as a pro, Lawrence has his third play caller: Press Taylor. Taylor, who was Jacksonville’s offensive coordinator last season, was given play-calling duties this season by head coach Doug Pederson, who called the plays in 2022. Pederson once bolstered his head-coaching résumé by calling plays under Andy Reid in Kansas City, and now he’s trying to pass that same benefit on to Taylor, who simply doesn’t have the stuff.
Taylor was involved in the play-calling to some degree in 2020, Pederson’s last and worst season as head coach of the Eagles, and he has similarly hampered the 2023 Jaguars. Lawrence’s numbers aren’t the only thing suffering this year. The Jaguars are averaging almost 1 yard less per rush this year than they did last year; their explosive rush rate, dropping from 9.8 percent to 5.5 percent, has almost been halved. Third-down conversion rates are down 7 percentage points, and fourth-down conversion rates are down 19 percentage points. Red zone efficiency, down. Goal-line efficiency, down.
All this with functionally the same personnel from last season. The only major loss is Jawaan Taylor. Fundamentally, wholesale offensive deterioration starts and stops with the offensive designer and play caller—especially when the only big change from last season to this season was the offensive play caller. This is on Taylor—and, by proxy, Pederson.
What specifically is Taylor struggling with? For one: The Jaguars don’t know how to get Calvin Ridley activated. Per Next Gen Stats, Ridley is one of only two receivers leaguewide to face press coverage on more than 40 percent of his snaps (46.8 percent, dramatically above third place, at 39 percent). And Ridley is struggling; he averages half as many yards per route run against press coverage. Yet the Jaguars line Ridley up as an outside receiver on the line of scrimmage, rarely motioning him (only 6.4 percent of his snaps) or hiding him in bunches and stacks to free him off the line.
This is particularly frustrating given the absence of Zay Jones, who has missed time with a knee injury. Jones is usually the opposite outside receiver who can win one-on-ones while Ridley is drawing the opposition’s best cornerback—if Kirk and Ridley are your only two dangerous wide receivers, why aren’t you scheming up more plays to maximize Ridley?
And if the Jaguars aren’t deploying the clever and helpful shenanigans that most teams do to assist their star receivers, what are they doing? Just running traditional West Coast ideas: the sort of stuff that dominated the 2000s. They ask Lawrence to sit in the pocket, pick a side of the field, process post-snap, and make defenders wrong constantly. It’s big-boy football—but it’s a lot of work for little reward.
Because Lawrence has been relegated to the role of half-field supercomputer, he’s throwing the ball in 2.44 seconds; only Tua Tagovailoa is distributing it faster. He’s also throwing underneath constantly—6.9 air yards per attempt is seventh lowest in the NFL.
Some of this is likely because Taylor wants to protect an offensive line that, during Cam Robinson’s suspension, was missing both of its tackles from last season. Even since Robinson has returned, rookie right tackle Anton Harrison has taken his share of lumps on the outside. But even if Taylor is running the offense this way to protect the line, he has dramatically overreacted. According to Next Gen Stats, only 7.4 percent of the Jaguars’ routes go further than 20 yards downfield—that’s last in the league by a comfortable margin. When looking at routes from just wide and slot alignments (i.e., removing routes that are typically shallow, from inline tight ends and backs in the backfield), the Jaguars are the only team with an average route depth (9.9 yards) under 10.
The Jags just don’t run receivers downfield. Taylor has the bones of a good offense—the familiar concepts that work from down to down—but he has none of the designer stuff, the extra zest, the oomph that really makes top offenses sing. That’s why the Jaguars can’t find any shot plays; it’s why the Jaguars are terrible in the red zone, where creative play design is an absolute must.
Throw in the turnovers, and that methodical, plodding quick-game offense ends up tripping over its shoelaces before finishing drives. Neither of Lawrence’s interceptions in this loss to the Niners was the result of poor reads or inaccurate balls or bad decisions; one was on a deflected ball, and on the other, Lawrence was hit as he threw.
In the same way that I can’t fault Lawrence too much for what his offensive coordinator is giving him, I can’t fault him too much for what Lady Luck is giving him. Lawrence absolutely fumbles the ball in the pocket too often (that was true last year, too!) and should work on that. But a 31-point loss to the 49ers all falling on his shoulders? That simply isn’t reflected in the film from Sunday, or from any point in the season.
Lawrence isn’t failing the Jaguars offense. It’s the other way around.
(Mostly Real) Awards
I’ll hand out some awards. Most of them will be real. Some of them won’t be.
Offensive Rookie of the Year (of the Week): Baltimore Ravens RB Keaton Mitchell
As if the Ravens offense weren’t scary enough, the past two weeks have been an explosive debut for rookie running back Mitchell, an undrafted free agent out of East Carolina who started the season on injured reserve. Fourteen of Mitchell’s 15 touches have come in the past two weeks, and four of those 15 touches have gone for at least 30 yards, as the speedster is running faster than any other Ravens skill-position player this season. Mitchell ended the day with 66 yards and a score on four touches. Even though he dropped a would-be touchdown pass, he should continue to be an additional playmaker on the multifarious Ravens offense.
Behaving Like I Would If I Were an NFL Quarterback Award: Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott
I suppose, when you’re up 21-0 on the Tommy DeVito–led Giants, you can try a few things. Careening back on your plant leg, falling away from pressure, eh, CeeDee’s down there somewhere. Watch Prescott launch this prayer and then get caught on camera acting a fool afterward.
Worth remarking: This isn’t the only thing Prescott did against the Giants that I would also do, were I an NFL quarterback. I would also have thrown for 400 yards and accounted for five total touchdowns.
Defensive Back of the Week: Tennessee Titans WR DeAndre Hopkins
Did this play have a huge impact in what ended up being a multi-score Titans loss? No. Is it still extremely cool and I want to show it? Yes.
Most defensive backs don’t find the hands and play the ball this well! That straps celebration at the end is well earned for Hopkins—and probably a very therapeutic thing for a wide receiver to do.
Future Backup Quarterback for the San Francisco 49ers That Everyone Thinks Would Play Well Enough to Earn the Starting Job If Forced Into Action Award: Patriots QB Mac Jones
A lot of people want the Jones career arc to mean something incredible; I’m not sure that it does.
Mac was the QB5 of the 2021 class by draft position. He was a solid but unspectacular prospect. He was accurate, managed the pocket really well, and was willing and able to push the ball deep, but he had a poor arm, had little to no creativity, and responded poorly to pressure.
His rookie season with the Patriots showed what the ceiling often is with such a player—run a spread system, let Mac pick and choose his spots, give him some designed shot plays, ensure the protection is sound, and he’ll be fine. Then Josh McDaniels, who is a good offensive designer (all head-coaching shenanigans notwithstanding), left for Las Vegas, and Mac’s offensive coordinator quality dropped dramatically. His weapons and protection regressed. This—a six-point outing against the Indianapolis Colts ending in a benching for Bailey Zappe—is the floor.
There’s still a spot for Mac in the league. I’d imagine, if the Patriots were to put him on the trade block next offseason while they spend their early draft pick on a top quarterback, that Mac would be a highly sought-after QB2. He has a quick processor and is obedient to the offensive system. Much of what makes him good is what has made quarterbacks good in the Shanahan offense for several years.
This game probably marks the end of Mac Jones in New England. But I doubt it marks the end of Mac Jones in the NFL.
Next Ben Stats
What it sounds like: Next Gen Stats, but I get to make them up.
0.006 percent: The percent chance that the Ravens would lose all seven of the games they’ve lost with Lamar as their starter over the past two seasons
The Ravens have done some incredible things this season. Beat the Lions and Seahawks by more than 30 points apiece; pushed Lamar to the top of the MVP odds; put up defensive numbers that only the 2000 Ravens could rival. But perhaps nothing has been more impressive over the past two seasons than the games they’ve lost.
If I just name a few of these games, you’ll likely remember them off the cuff. The Miami game early last year, in which Tua had four touchdowns in the fourth quarter. The fourth-and-goal attempt against the Bills last season. This year: the rainy Colts game in which Justin Tucker actually missed a field goal. It is hard to lose games like this.
If we say the Ravens had a 75 percent chance to win each game (which is very conservative!), then losing all seven games is 25 percent to the seventh power. That’s 0.006 percent. Six thousandths of a percent.
That’s truly historic stuff. Almost as historic as this:
0.005 percent: The chance that I would hit a walk-off game-winning kick
Five walk-off kicks make for great television on an NFL Sunday. The Cardinals won Kyler Murray’s first start this season; the Browns completed a huge comeback; and the Lions, Seahawks, and Texans all stymied valiant comeback efforts with a clutch kick in the waning seconds.
I feel nothing but secondhand terror for these poor kickers. Riley Patterson is 24! When I was 24, I was doing … well, it was two years ago, so I was basically doing this, but still! Matt Ammendola was signed off the street this week after an injury to Ka’imi Fairbairn and was tasked with hitting the game winner for the Texans. Does he have any friends in the locker room? Will they be nice to him if he misses? (Though, I will admit: I felt no stress for Matt Prater in Arizona. In my head, Matt Prater is 56 years old and has never missed a kick. Everyone else, though? Real worried.)
Kudos to all the kickers for pulling through in the clutch. Five game-winning kicks—but, perhaps more importantly, zero missed game-winning kicks on the day.
1: That’s how many plays it took Kyler Murray to remind us why he was a first pick who got an enormous contract
Listen. I have enjoyed Murray trade mongering. I have piloted Murray to basically every quarterback-needy team at this point. And who knows—maybe that will still happen!
But I’ll be honest: I had forgotten just how sick it is when Murray does this.
Yeah … maybe the Cardinals should keep this guy around. See what the young guy’s got, yanno?
500: That’s exactly how many yards CeeDee Lamb has over the past three weeks, which I find very pleasing
Lamb set an NFL record this week for consecutive 10-catch, 150-yard games, with three. Preposterous production. With 34 catches for 500 yards in the past three weeks, Lamb has practically done in three games what Tank Dell (34 for 510), George Pickens (33 for 566), and George Kittle (35 for 559) have done on the season.
You know how Tyreek Hill is on pace for the best receiving season ever? Through nine games, he has 1,076 yards. Lamb is only 101 yards off: 975. And with the way he’s playing, he just might catch up.