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The Ringer’s NBA Odds Machine

Will your team advance to the next round? Who has the best chance of winning the title? Our model has you covered.

Getty Images/Ringer illustration

Welcome to The Ringer’s NBA Odds Machine for the 2021-22 season. Based on team strength as measured by point differential—a historically strong predictor of future success—with adjustments for individual wrinkles like injuries and schedules, the Odds Machine outlines postseason probabilities, including each team’s likelihood of winning the title. The Odds Machine will update every day until a champion is crowned, so check back throughout the coming weeks as the league’s best teams battle for a title.

Thursday’s Game

Home Team Winning Odds Road Team Winning Odds Expected Margin
Home Team Winning Odds Road Team Winning Odds Expected Margin
Celtics 59% Warriors 41% Celtics by 2.5

Right now, the Celtics are favored to win the series 28% of the time. If they win on Thursday, those odds will increase to 46%.

We’re simulating the postseason every day. This chart shows each team’s likelihood of winning the 2021-22 title.

Postseason Odds

Team Win Title
Team Win Title
Warriors 72%
Celtics 28%

How likely is the Celtics or Warriors winning in six, or going all the way to a nail-biter Game 7? These charts show the chances for each possible outcome in the Finals.

Celtics vs. Warriors

Outcome Odds
Outcome Odds
Celtics in 4 n/a
Celtics in 5 n/a
Celtics in 6 n/a
Celtics in 7 28%
Warriors in 4 n/a
Warriors in 5 n/a
Warriors in 6 40%
Warriors in 7 32%
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