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The Ringer’s NBA Odds Machine

Will your team advance to the next round? Who has the best chance of winning the title? Our model has you covered.

Getty Images/Ringer illustration

Welcome to The Ringer’s NBA Odds Machine for the 2021-22 season. Based on team strength as measured by point differential—a historically strong predictor of future success—with adjustments for individual wrinkles like injuries and schedules, the Odds Machine outlines postseason probabilities, including each team’s likelihood of winning the title. The Odds Machine will update every day until a champion is crowned, so check back throughout the coming weeks as the league’s best teams battle for a title.

Today’s Game

Home Team Winning Odds Road Team Winning Odds Expected Margin
Home Team Winning Odds Road Team Winning Odds Expected Margin
Warriors 56% Mavericks 44% Warriors by 2

Right now, the Warriors are projected to win their series 89% of the time. If they win today’s game, the series will be over. But if they lose today’s game, those odds will fall to about 76%.

We’re simulating the postseason every day. This chart shows each team’s likelihood of advancing in each round and winning the 2021-22 title.

Postseason Odds

Team Make Finals Win Title
Team Make Finals Win Title
Celtics 84% 58%
Warriors 89% 29%
Heat 16% 9%
Mavericks 11% 3%

How likely is your favorite team to win in a sweep? What about losing in five, or winning in six, or going all the way to a nail-biter Game 7? These charts show the chances for each possible outcome in every series.

Heat vs. Celtics

Outcome Odds
Outcome Odds
Heat in 4 n/a
Heat in 5 n/a
Heat in 6 n/a
Heat in 7 16%
Celtics in 4 n/a
Celtics in 5 n/a
Celtics in 6 66%
Celtics in 7 18%

Warriors vs. Mavericks

Outcome Odds
Outcome Odds
Warriors in 4 n/a
Warriors in 5 56%
Warriors in 6 20%
Warriors in 7 13%
Mavericks in 4 n/a
Mavericks in 5 n/a
Mavericks in 6 n/a
Mavericks in 7 11%
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Are the Finals Set? Plus, Debating the No. 1 Pick and Kyrie’s Future in Brooklyn.

2022 NBA Playoffs

The Heat Still Can’t Solve the Celtics Defense. They’re Almost Out of Time to Find Answers.

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