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Welcome to The Ringer’s NBA Odds Machine for the 2021-22 season. Based on team strength as measured by point differential—a historically strong predictor of future success—with adjustments for individual wrinkles like injuries and schedules, the Odds Machine outlines postseason probabilities, including each team’s likelihood of winning the title. The Odds Machine will update every day until a champion is crowned, so check back throughout the coming weeks as the league’s best teams battle for a title.
Thursday’s Game
| Home Team | Winning Odds | Road Team | Winning Odds | Expected Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home Team | Winning Odds | Road Team | Winning Odds | Expected Margin |
| Celtics | 59% | Warriors | 41% | Celtics by 2.5 |
Right now, the Celtics are favored to win the series 28% of the time. If they win on Thursday, those odds will increase to 46%.
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We’re simulating the postseason every day. This chart shows each team’s likelihood of winning the 2021-22 title.
Postseason Odds
| Team | Win Title |
|---|---|
| Team | Win Title |
| Warriors | 72% |
| Celtics | 28% |
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How likely is the Celtics or Warriors winning in six, or going all the way to a nail-biter Game 7? These charts show the chances for each possible outcome in the Finals.
Celtics vs. Warriors
| Outcome | Odds |
|---|---|
| Outcome | Odds |
| Celtics in 4 | n/a |
| Celtics in 5 | n/a |
| Celtics in 6 | n/a |
| Celtics in 7 | 28% |
| Warriors in 4 | n/a |
| Warriors in 5 | n/a |
| Warriors in 6 | 40% |
| Warriors in 7 | 32% |