An unpredictable NBA season has, fittingly, brought us to the doorstep of a Finals matchup that no one expected: the Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat. Either the Heat will become the only 8-seed ever to win the NBA title, or the Nuggets will capture the Larry O’Brien Trophy for the first time. So who will make history? Our staff answers the most pressing Finals questions and makes their series picks below.
Who is the biggest X factor in Nuggets-Heat?
Michael Pina: How could it be anyone but Caleb Martin? He was either Miami’s best or second-best player in the conference finals, capping off the name-making series with a Game 7 for the ages. If Martin can continue to swish seemingly every open 3, make sensational things happen when driving hard closeouts, create turnovers, and hound whoever he’s matched up against, the Heat will have a puncher’s chance.
Rob Mahoney: Bam Adebayo. Maybe it’s wrong to think of a proper star as an X factor in a series like this one, but Nikola Jokic can turn even great players into variables. Bam hasn’t had any luck whatsoever slowing down Jokic in their regular-season bouts, but all eyes will be on him as Miami’s first line of defense—and the Heat’s best, considering the alternatives. If he can’t make Jokic’s work difficult, the Heat won’t stand a chance. And if Bam isn’t a real scoring presence, it’s hard to imagine how Miami will be able to keep up with a Denver team firing on all cylinders. All roads to a championship for the Heat go through him in some form or fashion, and yet the matchup is stacked against him.
Zach Kram: Tracking data suggests that Aaron Gordon has been by far the best defender against Jimmy Butler over the past three seasons. Imagine if Gordon successfully navigates a playoff gauntlet of Kevin Durant, LeBron James, and Playoff Jimmy all in a row—Denver’s trade for the former Magic forward could have been a title-winning move.
Seerat Sohi: Miami’s 3-point accuracy. The Lakers and Suns attacked Jokic in the drop but they lacked the 3-point shooting to effectively punish Denver’s defensive style. The Heat will be anything but shy about pulling up from deep, especially if Tyler Herro, who shot 37 percent on pull-up 3s in the regular season, can make a healthy return.
Justin Verrier: Tyler Herro. Will he play? If he does, will he wear a bucket hat? The Heat haven’t missed Herro’s shooting, or the problems caused by his lacking individual defense. But Miami will need all of the firepower it can get to keep up with Denver’s blistering offense, and the will-he, won’t-he questions only heighten the Heat’s biggest advantage all postseason: unpredictability.
Tyler Parker: Caleb Martin’s scoring has been one of the biggest bright spots of these playoffs and one of the biggest surprises. After averaging just 9.6 points per game during the regular season, he’s gone volcanic. Shooting the ball like a lost Splash Brother, dumping hell on the defense’s head, and guarding like mad. In their rough stretches, Miami’s offense can get stuck in the mud. They can’t afford to start buffering against the Nuggets incendiary offense. If the Heat want to keep pace with the Denver Demigod of Passing and Exploitation, they need Martin. They need him to be his switchy, pesky, guard-whoever-you-want-me-to self on defense, and then they need that aggression to channel itself to the other end. For the Heat to have any chance to pull off this upset, he needs to be in attack mode. He needs to be firing.
J. Kyle Mann: For Miami, the natural inclination is to look over at Tyler Herro (God knows what he must’ve been thinking as the Heat’s slew of underdog, lesser-paid supporting cast members have stepped in and efficiently replaced him in the aggregate), the team’s most prolific shooter and primary ball handler during its ho-hum regular season, and think, “That guy will do something.” Yet it seems like catapulting him into battle on this stage would be an unnecessary vibe disruption and more likely a “break glass in case of desperation” option should the Nuggets blitz the Heat early in the series.
For me, Denver’s handful of large and versatile forwards is one of the critical elements of its roster build, and the extra oomph that helps the Nuggets be highly effective in a number of styles. Aaron Gordon is a tough-assignment maven, Michael Porter Jr. is an insatiable shot taker (and usually maker), and Jeff Green blends both of those ideas. We all rightfully focus on the quandary of Nikola Jokic, but their collective impact on the series could be the thing that ultimately puts back-breaking stress on Miami.
Matt Dollinger: Jimmy Butler. Being a gutsy top-20 player won’t be enough to carry the Heat past the Nuggets. Then again, it wasn’t enough to beat the Bucks, Knicks, or Celtics, either, which is why we saw Butler transform into Playoff Jimmy, a bona fide top-10 player. Can Butler be the best player in a series that features a well-rested two-time MVP in his prime? Miami’s chances pretty much depend on it.
What’s one reason people are sleeping on this matchup?
Parker: Watching Jokic and Jamal Murray problem-solve against Adebayo, Butler, and Erik Spoelstra’s all-hands-on-deck-no-stone-unturned-we’ll-try-anything-once approach to defense. The two-man game from Denver’s leaders has been consistently gnarly, packs quite the wallop, dices you up. Spo will throw a phone book of coverages at them, plus like 30 kitchen sinks. The taps will pour fire. It’ll be fun to watch Jokic and Murray try to figure out how to dance among the flames.
Verrier: Well, to be fair, this is a sleepy-ass matchup on paper. The Nuggets were the fourth-best team in the league, even after sleepwalking through the last month-plus; the Heat were the eighth-best team in their own conference. But here’s the thing: We’ve been saying some version of that all postseason! Miami has pulled off one of the most improbable runs in NBA history. This is the type of juggernaut vs. underdog contrast that often produces the most memorable championship bouts.
Kram: Nikola Jokic is already one of the greatest offensive players in NBA playoff history, and these Finals could be a true international coronation for the two-time MVP and current best player in the world.
Mahoney: The battle-within-the-battle between Jimmy Butler and Aaron Gordon. In this corner, we have one of the postseason’s most sensational performers—a force of will and nature who obliterated the Bucks, worked over the Knicks, and outlasted the Celtics. Butler has walked the line all playoffs long between dominating one-on-one matchups and playing a perfectly tuned team game. In the opposite corner is Gordon, whose matchup progression in these playoffs has taken him from defending Durant to LeBron to Butler. Those other superstars learned what Butler will soon: that Gordon is too big to muscle and too cagey to be discarded easily. There’s going to be a war for every angle and inch between those two, with the sport’s ultimate prize on the line. Ring the bell and enjoy the show.
Sohi: The abundance of newcomers. With the NBA script-writers on strike, the battle for 17 never came to be. As much as fans bemoan the predictability of the playoffs, they secretly like it. The fact that very few people guessed Miami and Denver would be facing off in the postseason should probably pique more interest, but that’s not always how it goes. On the bright side, the two-time MVP has an opportunity to show the world all the passing angles they’ve been missing.
Dollinger: Unless you’re a Lakers fan or you just watched Butler dismember your favorite team, these two squads are pretty damn likable. This series will be entertaining no matter the outcome. Jokic will be seen as an all-time great if the Nuggets can win a championship. And Butler and the Heat will go down as one of the biggest underdog stories in sports history if they pull off the upset. What’s there to lose?
Mann: I’d imagine people are sleeping on this matchup because their lazy asses haven’t watched the Nuggets all year. Maybe practice some self-care and do that next time around?
Pina: Nikola Jokic vs. Bam Adebayo. It’s the best offensive player in the NBA vs. someone who, on most nights, looks like the best defensive player in the NBA. The Heat will constantly change their coverage in an attempt to confuse Jokic. They’ll hard double. They’ll feint help. They’ll dig and recover and almost definitely do a better job than the Lakers of getting back in transition. But Adebayo’s one-on-one coverage matters. He can’t foul or allow offensive rebounds. How all this impacts Miami’s penchant to switch ball screens will be fascinating as the series evolves.
If you have one gripe about the 2023 NBA playoffs, register it here.
Verrier: Michael Malone hasn’t complained enough about disrespect.
Dollinger: Please don’t make the play-in tournament even more of a thing after deep postseason runs by the Lakers and Heat. Ten out of 15 teams in each conference already make the play-in or playoffs as it stands. The Lakers (a no. 7 seed) and the Heat (a no. 8) still would have made the playoffs without it. Expanding the play-in any further would basically make the regular season into a six-month exhibition slate.
Pina: Injuries. Kawhi Leonard’s knee, Giannis Antetokounmpo’s back, LeBron James’s foot, Chris Paul’s groin, Joel Embiid’s knee, Jayson Tatum’s ankle, Paul George’s knee, Jimmy Butler’s ankle, Ja Morant’s hand, and several other physical ailments to key players that were a bummer to witness.
Parker: I would like less Scott Foster on my television. He’s a smug, unhappy little man, and his eyes make me cold.
Sohi: I have zero gripes. One of Jimmy Butler or Nikola Jokic is going to have a ring after this. How could I be mad at that? Plus, here’s one for Canada: One of Kyle Lowry or Jamal Murray is going to have a ring after this. Win-win, baby.
Mann: These kinds of things are inevitable, but one minor bone I’d pick is the role that injuries have played. It’s nobody’s fault. You play who’s in front of you, and year by year, rarely do we get a landscape of teams that are each at full strength and firing on all cylinders. It doesn’t discredit or diminish anyone—the victors will be celebrated accordingly—I just wish that we would’ve gotten the opportunity to see Kawhi have more than a few fleeting measures of dominance, I wish Giannis hadn’t had such terrible luck with his back, and I wish Jayson Tatum wouldn’t have sprained his ankle immediately in what turned out to be an ass-whipping of a Game 7 in Boston. I like this sport, and I want to see the best players play! It’s a novel concept.
If Erik Spoelstra called you seeking advice for how to defend Nikola Jokic, what would you tell him?
Pina: There is no way to solve Jokic. Making him a scorer one-on-one is death. Squeezing the ball from his hands with an aggressive double-team is death. Letting him catch it on a short roll is death. Letting him pop to the perimeter is death. Putting a wing on him and letting a shot blocker roam off Aaron Gordon is death. Going zone is death. The Nuggets are generating 123.1 points per 100 possessions when Jokic is on the court. That is absurd. The best strategy, then, is to limit transition opportunities, and make him work as much as possible on defense. Put Jokic in pick-and-roll after pick-and-roll and hope Butler can get him in foul trouble. Besides that, pray.
Dollinger: Sorry, wrong number.
Kram: Sign a Morris brother and try to goad the two-time MVP into another altercation and suspension.
Sohi: What Darvin Ham said: kidnap him. But seriously, and this may sound counterintuitive: keep it simple. Boston could never crack Miami’s zone defense, but Jokic was practically lab-designed to read and bust it. He can post up from anywhere, has shot a blistering 49 percent from midrange in the playoffs, and cranks out passes to the opposite weakside corner with ease.
No one man can handle Jokic on his own, but Bam Adebayo, a physical post defender with the quick feet to defend face-ups and a 7-foot-2 wingspan to contest shots, held Jokic to 0.714 points per chance on 17 actions this season, according to Second Spectrum. Miami has little choice but to avoid switching—unless it’s Haywood Highsmith or Butler who end up on Jokic, and even that could be a mini-catastrophe—and hope Adebayo’s best is good enough. It probably won’t be, though.
Parker: I would tell him to lose my number. It’s for family and friends. I think you’re a fantastic coach, but I’m a private person and will not be strong-armed into helping you beat Nikola Jokic. Another thing: undo a couple of those polo buttons. You’re in Miami. Let the chest breathe. Also don’t run zone. History says Big Honey tears that thing up.
Mann: Off court, my first suggestion would be to take a jaunt over to the Cathedral of Saint Mary in Miami (beautiful building) every two to three hours to light as many prayer candles as possible. Get the spiritual forces on your side, if possible. Tithe if you haven’t in a while. On court, it’s obviously tricky. The Serbian Saddler, the Sombor Savant is one of the great offensive shape-shifters of our time, and his dismissal of Anthony Davis should be ample proof that he’s likely too mentally and physically taxing a task for one person to take on. Recent history suggests that (barring a surprise move) Adebayo will shoulder the initial responsibility, and understandably so. He’s as long, mobile, and strong as any defender we have in the league, and he’s a deviant as a screener. His and Jimmy’s personas define so much of who the Heat happen to be.
In the past three seasons Bam has logged 215 half-court defensive possessions against Jokic, which is more than anyone else on the Heat roster and it’s not particularly close. The straight-up options are extremely limited, here. Cody Zeller? In this economy? The Heat would probably be best served by sticking with the mentality of dictating the game with their style and lineups as a way of tiring him out, making him move in space, and bringing fouls into the equation.
Verrier: [Adjusts chumming gloves. Jams toothpick into back molar.] “We’re gonna need a bigger bench.”
Mahoney: Study quantum physics. Invent a time machine. Travel back to 2005, but be sure not to run into your past self. Fly to Belgrade, and take the train to Sombor. Locate the Jokic family home, ask to speak to this kid, and gently convince him to take up water polo. Or maybe tennis? A racket sport feels safer.
What will be the next “Heat Culture” magic trick?
Sohi: Over the course of two games, Haywood Highsmith will play three quarters of Rui Hachimura–esque solid defense on Nikola Jokic while Bam Adebayo patrols the backside. The key for Miami will be to steal one of those games before Jokic susses him out.
Verrier: Can Pat Riley conjure up a capable reserve big out of thin air? The Heat play bigger than their listed measurables, but asking Bam Adebayo to bang with Nikola Jokic—who’s got 30 pounds and 20 bags of tricks on his side—for 40-plus minutes ain’t gonna cut it. The Kevin Love revival was fun while it lasted, and Cody Zeller is a hope and a prayer at this point. But if Omer Yurtseven starts drilling 3s, I’m ready to worship Spo like a spiritual wood god from Yellowjackets.
Kram: Ah, but does Denver’s altitude advantage cancel out Heat Culture? It’s a battle of intangibles!
Miami Heat coach Erik Spoelstra on impact of Denver altitude:”If Denver wants to tip off on Mt. Everest, we’ll do that.”
— Jeff Zillgitt (@JeffZillgitt) May 31, 2023
In typical Spoelstra fashion.
Pina: It’s all about the 3-point line. If the Heat can continue to have historic success behind the arc, then they can ride a mathematical advantage to the title. If not, it’s hard to see how they can manufacture enough points to keep up with an offense that’s an assembly line of cutting layups, dunks, open corner 3s, and Jokic wreaking havoc in the paint.
Dollinger: Part of me wants to say Cody Zeller becoming the Jokic Stopper, just to see Rob Mahoney have to write about it. But I’ll go with someone on the Heat (truly, no one in particular) remembering what Jokic did to their teammate two years ago and seizing some cheap-shot revenge.
Mann: Kyle Lowry’s intense bursts of game action are like Pym Particles at this point—they help him come up huge in critical moments, but it feels like once he uses them, they’re gone forever. They’ve proved yet again that they can get shit done, as he was awesome in Game 7 against Boston. I think we might see a big scoring output from him, or a grifting opus as he aims to steal a second title.
Mahoney: Gabe Vincent has already set a new playoff career high in scoring three different times in these playoffs, so I’m fully expecting a fourth, and probably a fifth. I can’t explain how or why a smaller guard with a come-and-go jumper is torching playoff defenses, but with the run Miami is on, the fact that it’s mystifying makes it feel only more likely.
Parker: Pat Riley gets Tyler Herro to wear a suit.
Who wins and in how many games?
Mahoney: Nuggets in five. Maybe that’s disrespectful to the world-beating Heat, and maybe that disrespect plays right into their hands. It just seems like an awful lot to expect Miami’s makeshift rotation to keep up with not only Jokic, but also the most complete starting lineup in basketball.
Kram: Nuggets in five. Because I also thought the Bucks and Celtics would beat the Heat comfortably, and look how those predictions turned out.
Pina: Nuggets in five.
Mann: Nuggets in six. The last time Miami was in the finals (2020, in the bubble), we saw Jimmy and his boys go all out and take two games against a physically imposing Lakers squad. I’m not putting anything past him at this point, but Denver is not the sputtering offensive engine that Milwaukee, New York, and Boston were at times. The Nuggets’ options are more plentiful, and they have the best basketball player in the world on their side.
Dollinger: Nuggets in four. It’s almost unfathomable to imagine Miami has anything left after its incredible run. The Nuggets are a nightmare matchup coming off a week of rest and own the best home-court advantage in the league. I’m not trying to be disrespectful, just realistic.
Parker: Would love for it to go longer but Nuggets in five. Nobody has solved Jokic-Murray. Spo’s a warlock, and Bam and Jimmy are not to be trifled with, and Caleb Martin will never die, but Jokic has the Nuggets playing like world-eaters. Denver’s enormous and playing with a lot of feel. The Heat are mighty but a hair too small. The Nugs feel inevitable.
Verrier: Nuggets in five. All the evidence suggests a Denver romp, yet we’re rooting for chaos. We’ve seen how Jimmy treats data.
Sohi: Nuggets in seven. The more I think about this series, the more I reflect on what Butler, Spoelstra, and an overmatched Miami team have been capable of, the more I feel like this isn’t going to be a short series.