The Phoenix Suns were staring at a tailspin. About five weeks ago, they’d just lost their third straight game on a Christmas-night clash that saw Devin Booker reaggravate a groin injury that’s kept him sidelined ever since. They lost nine of their next 11 games, and regularly trotted out lineups that featured Duane Washington Jr., Josh Okogie, and Ish Wainright.
Their championship window seemed fleeting—but Phoenix’s past couple weeks have brought a cause for optimism as a collective that’s two short seasons removed from a 2-0 lead in the NBA Finals. The Suns have won six of their last eight games and, despite being right in the thick of Western Conference morass (27-26 and in seventh place), they have offensive continuity, defensive pedigree, and the hopeful, buoyant upside of a healthy roster heading their way in the future. Booker is expected to return as soon as Tuesday after missing 24 of Phoenix’s last 27 games.
This team hasn’t been whole all year. Their actual starting five, which features Cam Johnson in Jae Crowder’s place, has only appeared together in six games and is plus-43 in 67 minutes. Beating them four times in seven tries won’t be easy if their rotation can stay intact.
It might be a bridge too far to call Phoenix a sleeping giant, but it’s also too soon to dismiss them entirely as a legitimate title contender. And Chris Paul, who’s still very good albeit less reliable on a night-to-night basis, is a big reason why. When he plays well, it’s a reminder of why the Suns are guaranteed to strike a deal before the February 9 trade deadline, be it a minor one-off involving Crowder or something more aggressive that includes draft picks. Earlier this week I proposed this mini-blockbuster for OG Anunoby.
It’s hard to say what else they need, with a roster that won 64 games last season and—occasional chemistry-related issues aside—had the feel of a well-oiled machine. But bolstering their depth and maybe adding another ball handler would be convenient (new owner Mat Ishbia is likely taking over before the trade deadline, too).
They could and should also make a run at Alex Caruso, someone who can function as Paul’s backup and also complement every member of Phoenix’s starting five on both sides of the ball.
Squeezing everything out of Paul’s twilight is worthwhile—especially with Booker operating as an MVP candidate when healthy, and with Mikal Bridges making strides when the ball’s in his hands.
Paul’s season began with sagging shot splits and droopy defense. At 37 years old, this wasn’t the same player who finished 14-of-14 in a close-out road playoff game last April. That version of Paul appeared to be extinct. He couldn’t crack 40 percent shooting from the floor over the season’s first 10 games, looked a step slow on defense, and wasn’t getting to his spots as easily as he used to.
But Paul has (somewhat) bounced back. In 15 games after returning from a heel injury that sidelined him for most of November, the Point God was sprightly, averaging 16 points and 8.1 assists per game and making 44.6 percent of his 3s. (After a down season behind the arc, Paul is up at 40.4 percent this season, with a much higher 3-point rate.)
In a smaller, six-game sample size upon recovering from a sore hip, Paul has mostly looked like an All-Star: 18.5 points, 9.2 assists, 5.0 rebounds, and only 2.2 turnovers. His shooting splits? 51.3/42.4/93.8. Pretty good!
From one perspective, the injuries are why it’s OK to be skeptical. Paul can’t stay healthy, and relying on him to thrive through four playoff rounds is unrealistic. There are nights like Wednesday’s loss against the Hawks where he just doesn’t have anything in the tank and pretty much resembles a 6-foot Ben Simmons, reluctant to shoot, happy to kick the ball ahead and let teammates work as he saunters towards the corner. The Suns are moving slower this year with Paul on the court—only three teams are below Phoenix’s pace in those minutes—and are less likely or willing to seek open-floor opportunities off missed shots. Even with his quick hands, Paul is understandably nowhere near the defender he once was. The Suns hide him on that end as much as they can; he hardly ever matches up with opposing point guards.
But the mere fact that he’s able to hit the offensive highs he has is as remarkable as it should be relevant. Paul’s most recent positive stretch includes games in which he went toe-to-toe against Ja Morant in a win over Memphis, then expertly picked his spots against the Raptors.
Paul has never averaged fewer field goal attempts per game—and the percentage of his buckets that are assisted is up 10 percent from the last couple years—but he’s still creating space for himself in the midrange, Lydia Tár-ing Phoenix’s pick-and-roll–heavy system, and ranking fourth in points created by an assist per 100 possessions (only Tyrese Haliburton, Nikola Jokic, and James Harden are above him). In most games, Paul still manipulates like the mastermind he is.
It’s the little things, like when he frantically called timeout to avoid an 8-second violation as a teammate held the ball near the end of Monday’s win. He might be the NBA’s savviest player as he is always aware, forever seeking an edge that may or may not exist. Jayson Tatum, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Giannis Antetokounmpo have all played hundreds more minutes than Paul, yet all four have drawn the same number of fouls while in the bonus.
Doubt this man at your own peril. His midrange pull up remains one of the most devastating weapons in the league. According to Second Spectrum, Paul is shooting 55.1 percent on 2-point jumpers off the dribble. That’s sixth-best among all players who’ve taken at least 50 shots. Against drop coverage, whether the screen is set 30 feet from the rim or at the top of the key, he’s completely unbothered:
He can still skip to that trusty baseline fallaway when he needs it, too:
The trend of picking Paul up in the backcourt as a way to wear him down has unsurprisingly continued this season. There are nights when that has a clear effect. And there are moments when he shrugs the pressure off and makes the opposing head coach reconsider his strategy:
This season, the Suns generate 1.21 points per direct play when a defense switches on a Paul pick-and-roll. That’s the most efficient he’s been in any year against any coverage in Second Spectrum’s database. Watch these sequences and they don’t look anything like, say, how Luka Doncic deals with a switch. Paul doesn’t stare down his new defender and go one-on-one. Instead, he leverages his own threatening ability to score by exploiting all the cuts and screens and newly formed mismatches created elsewhere on the floor.
Watch Dillon Brooks over-help behind Steven Adams on this play. This late in the clock, another player in this situation would shoot. Paul waits for the movement:
At his relative best, Paul reminds me of Ace Rothstein describing his psychotic mob partner’s, um, mentality in Casino: “No matter how big a guy might be, Nicky would take him on. You beat Nicky with fists, he comes back with a bat. You beat him with a knife, he comes back with a gun. And you beat him with a gun, you better kill him, because he’ll keep coming back and back until one of you is dead.”
But nobody, even Paul, really knows how much longer that will last. Heading toward the trade deadline, the Suns have no choice but to cross their fingers, upgrade their roster, and hope everyone can stay healthy. Their offense still hums when Booker and Paul share the floor, and there’s reason to believe Phoenix can still come out of the West if the mightiest floor general of his generation has one final ride left.