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The Ringer’s NBA Restart Odds

A new predictive model that forecasts every game inside the Orlando bubble and how each result affects the playoff picture

Welcome to The Ringer’s NBA Restart Odds, which will update every night through the end of the 2019-20 postseason to help fans navigate the unprecedented playoff structure. Based on team strength as measured by point differential—a historically strong predictor of future success—with adjustments for individual wrinkles like player absences and injuries, the Restart Odds include four main features: single-game odds for each day’s games, an explanation of the importance of each individual game, postseason odds for all 16 playoff teams leading up to the championship round, and series possibilities that show how many games each matchup is likely to run. Read more about the model here, and be sure to check back throughout the rest of the postseason as the odds update each night.

Playoff Picture

Team Make Second Round Make Third Round Make Finals Win Title
Team Make Second Round Make Third Round Make Finals Win Title
Lakers 100% 100% 100% 100%
Heat 100% 100% 100% 0%
Celtics 100% 100% 0% 0%
Nuggets 100% 100% 0% 0%
Bucks 100% 0% 0% 0%
Raptors 100% 0% 0% 0%
Clippers 100% 0% 0% 0%
Rockets 100% 0% 0% 0%
Pacers 0% 0% 0% 0%
76ers 0% 0% 0% 0%
Nets 0% 0% 0% 0%
Magic 0% 0% 0% 0%
Thunder 0% 0% 0% 0%
Jazz 0% 0% 0% 0%
Mavericks 0% 0% 0% 0%
Trail Blazers 0% 0% 0% 0%

Lakers vs. Heat

Outcome Odds
Outcome Odds
Lakers in 4 n/a
Lakers in 5 n/a
Lakers in 6 100%
Lakers in 7 n/a
Heat in 4 n/a
Heat in 5 n/a
Heat in 6 n/a
Heat in 7 n/a
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