Players like Bill Russell, Jerry West, and Tim Duncan bolstered their legends by spending their entire playing days with a single organization. It’s a romantic notion, but stars of that vein have long been the exception. In the modern era, it’s rare for a player to spend even their entire prime with one team, never mind the duration of their career. From Kevin Durant to Kawhi Leonard, there has been a wave of All-Stars to leave in free agency or coerce trades in just the past few years. With so much movement, big-name players changing places at the height of their abilities has become the norm, and the reverberations that these stars create have changed the way we think about the NBA. A season is no longer solely about the 82 games on the schedule, not when the results and decisions made today can affect the events that transpire a year or two down the road.
Pre-agency is now a part of the NBA’s fabric. Anthony Davis is already the talk of the league, and given the Pelicans’ woes this season, he could request a trade sooner rather than later. The earlier that Davis’s agency, Klutch Sports, asks the New Orleans front office to trade their client, the more that pressure will build by the offseason. But even once the Davis drama resolves—whenever it does—the carousel will continue to spin. Teams will plan ahead for the next cycle of stars on the move, just like they have for years for Davis. By retaining cap flexibility and with smart, forward-thinking management in the form of accumulating assets, teams can be ready for the next crop. Here’s a look at five players blossoming into stars in volatile situations—five players whom other teams should begin pursuing.
Karl-Anthony Towns, Timberwolves
Sunday’s firing of Timberwolves head coach Tom Thibodeau was a shock for many in the Wolves’ organization, and according to league sources, staffers are stuck in limbo with no idea about what will happen next. As Adrian Wojnarowski first reported, league sources expect ex-Bulls coach Fred Hoiberg to be a top candidate for the position. As of Monday evening, however, I’m told that Hoiberg and Wolves owner Glen Taylor had no official conversations about the head-coaching gig and that the Wolves will wait until the offseason to make decisions on their vacant positions. Ryan Saunders will serve as interim head coach, and Scott Layden will remain general manager for now.
Saunders will be center Karl-Anthony Towns’s head coach, the third since Towns was drafted first overall in 2015. Last May, ESPN’s Zach Lowe reported that Towns and the Timberwolves were “not in a good place internally.” A portion of that discontent was due to Towns’s poor relationship with Jimmy Butler. Things have been better lately, but without a long-term head coach in place, the team is no closer to overcoming its organizational dysfunction. It’s too bad for them: Towns is finally blossoming into a two-way star. Over the past six games, Towns is posting averages of 29.7 points, 16.5 rebounds, 5.0 assists, and 3.3 blocks. It’s not the first time he’s produced similarly. Over his final 41 games of the 2016-17 season, he averaged 28.4 points, 12.7 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 1.0 blocks. Then that summer the Timberwolves acquired Butler, who would take the ball out of KAT’s hands. Now that Butler is gone, Towns is finally back on track as a devastating scorer from every inch of the court. The big difference now is that Towns is playmaking and playing better defense.
Towns averaged only 1.1 assists as a freshman at Kentucky, but his knack for passing was apparent. Towns made smart, quick decisions and delivered accurate passes when double-teamed. Now in his fourth NBA season, his latent abilities as a playmaker are manifesting. With Butler gone and Derrick Rose and Jeff Teague recently out with injury, Towns has shown he can handle more of the playmaking burden. It’s unlikely he’ll maintain his recent passing numbers with Rose and Teague back, but he has the ability.
Defense was Towns’s strength at Kentucky: He blocked 2.3 shots per game and contained both larger and smaller players using his long wingspan and quick feet. Towns often got into foul trouble, though, falling for pump fakes and chasing blocks instead of boxing out, bad habits that carried into the NBA. Thibodeau was supposed to be a positive for Towns, but that wasn’t the case until fairly recently. The Wolves have begun hedging more frequently on pick-and-rolls instead of “dropping,” which has empowered Towns to lean on his mobility and aggression.
Towns still has a frustrating tendency to lose focus—which only improves with experience—but at least it’s happening less frequently; his progress may be a reflection of his improved environment. Successful team defense has so much to do with chemistry, and Minnesota’s culture is certainly better with Robert Covington and Dario Saric instead of Butler. But now Towns must undergo another change at coach—and possibly systematic changes that come with it.
There’s a lot at stake this season for Towns; he signed a five-year, supermax contract this summer. If he makes the All-NBA team (or is named MVP or Defensive Player of the Year), he’ll earn $189.7 million over the duration of the deal. If he doesn’t, he’ll earn $158.1 million. Towns likely wouldn’t make the All-NBA team if the season ended today because of his slow start, but there’s still half a season to change that.
Karl-Anthony Towns’s Contract
Perhaps more important than the hire at head coach is the next team president of basketball operations. The Wolves have a lot of work to do on their roster after Thibodeau seemed more interested in signing ex-Bulls and retreads than developing young players. The next head honcho must learn from Thibodeau’s mistakes—and from the short-term sins of Dell Demps and the Pelicans, who are dealing with a similarly prodigious talent in Davis—by taking a long view.
Towns will turn 29 in 2024, the same year he’ll hit unrestricted free agency. Minnesota has never been a top free-agent destination, and one of Towns’s best friends and teammates from Kentucky, Devin Booker, has already been not-so-subtly recruiting him by posting a photo of Towns wearing a Suns jersey. The Wolves need to start building a contender around him, or by 2024, there’s a chance Towns becomes the next Davis: a superstar big man stuck on a losing team in a smaller market, looking for an escape.
Ben Simmons, 76ers
Though league sources say that Jimmy Butler has developed a good relationship with Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons, his reported problems with the Sixers system are real. Results aren’t everything. Even without the benefits of building chemistry during the offseason and training camp, the Sixers are outscoring teams by 8.8 points per 100 possessions with at least two of the trio on the court. Still, the internal conflict is relevant. Butler’s main gripe with Brown is that the team doesn’t run pick-and-roll and isolation sets, according to ESPN’s Ramona Shelburne and Adrian Wojnarowski. The Sixers finish only 16.5 percent of their possessions using the pick-and-roll, which ranks last by a wide margin behind the Warriors at 21.2 percent, per Synergy. Only the Heat (4.2 percent) use the isolation less frequently than the Sixers (5 percent). Butler could prefer to sign with a team that plays his style, ranking closer to the top of the NBA in both pick-and-roll and isolation frequency, like the Clippers or Nets. Butler is right, though: In an ideal world, the Sixers should run more pick-and-roll and isolate to attack mismatches. One big problem: It’d require Simmons to sacrifice touches and adapt by setting more on-ball screens and improving as a shooter.
Simmons either hasn’t shown the willingness or the team hasn’t asked him to set on-ball screens regularly. The potential is there for him to devastate defenses by scoring off those plays like Blake Griffin does or making passes off the short roll à la Draymond Green. Unfortunately, optimizing a pick-and-roll also requires spacing.
It’s probably not a coincidence that Butler’s reported displeasure was followed by encouragement by Brown and Embiid for Simmons to shoot more jumpers and develop a corner 3. “To get to the level we wanna get to, he’s gonna need to [shoot],” Brown told The Athletic’s Jackson Frank. “The time has always been now and it will continue to be an emphasis from me to him. And seemingly, and more importantly, from him to himself.” It’s a tension that gets to the heart of who Simmons is as a player.
If the Sixers change their offense by putting the ball into Butler’s hands and Simmons suddenly becomes a rich man’s Draymond on offense, there could be problems. Simmons is represented by Rich Paul of Klutch Sports, the same agency that represents LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Klutch views Simmons as one of the NBA’s future faces of the league, as they should. Even without a jumper, Simmons is a magical passer who can rebound and defend multiple positions. The 22-year-old has a lucrative shoe contract with Nike, multiple endorsements, and a best-selling jersey, in the top 10 in sales during his rookie season. It’s no secret that Simmons loves the limelight: He dates Kendall Jenner, has earned celebrity treatment, and spends nearly all his off time in Los Angeles. If Philadelphia’s situation turns sour, it would come as a surprise to no one if they someday pushed for a trade.
Under the collective bargaining agreement, if Simmons were traded before the end of the 2020-21 season, he’d retain his eligibility to sign a designated veteran contract after eight or nine years of service. It shouldn’t matter to the Sixers: They shouldn’t trade Simmons unless it’s for a player better than him, like Davis. Simmons isn’t a perfect fit next to Embiid, but the pairing works well. He’s also cornerstone insurance; if Embiid ever suffers another major injury, Simmons would promptly be elevated into the no. 1 role. When Simmons is a restricted free agent in 2020, the Sixers can sign him to a designated rookie extension offer worth five years, $171.1 million, or up to $205.3 million if he’s named to an All-NBA team next season, or wins MVP or Defensive Player of the Year.
The Sixers are aiming to contend for championships into the 2020s with Embiid and Simmons as their centerpieces, but Philadelphia’s dysfunction, Klutch’s power, and the long history of NBA stars butting heads are collectively enough for teams to monitor the Simmons situation, which begins with the fate of Butler.
Kristaps Porzingis, Knicks
The last time we saw Porzingis on the court, he was amid a roller-coaster season that started with a high: The Latvian 7-foot-3 center was averaging 30 points over his first 10 games until elbow and knee injuries hindered his production. On February 6, a torn ACL in his left knee ended his season. As Porzingis continues to rehabilitate after his injury, teams around the league are looking ahead to his restricted free agency this offseason. With the Knicks looking to create enough cap space to sign Durant, which will require renouncing free agent rights and trading either Tim Hardaway Jr. or Courtney Lee, teams are wondering what will happen with Porzingis.
The Knicks can give Porzingis a contract worth up to $158.1 million over five years. But last week Stefan Bondy of the New York Daily News cited sources who believe the Knicks will offer Porzingis an incentive-based contract similar to the one that Embiid received. The Sixers guaranteed only $84.2 million of Embiid’s $147.7 million, which set the precedent for a player prone to major injury. Porzingis hasn’t suffered as many major injuries as Embiid, but his list is getting long. Since 2015, Porzingis has had many leg injuries, lower-back tightness, shoulder and elbow strains, while also missing games due to infections and flus. Porzingis is confident in his ability to recover; it’s why he calls himself The Lizard (but over the course of his four-year career, he’s been more like Mr. Glass).
The Knicks could take inspiration from the way the Sixers have handled Embiid’s contract negotiations, but the approach comes with risks. It was less than two years ago that Porzingis skipped his exit interview because he was upset with the front office led by Phil Jackson. Negotiating an incentive-based deal with Porzingis could risk alienating him. All it takes is one team—like the Nets, as Bondy mentioned—to make Porzingis a max offer sheet worth four years and $122.1 million. The Spurs are also viewed as a team with significant interest in Porzingis, according to league front office sources, though it’d be difficult for San Antonio to create enough cap space this summer. In any case, signing a max offer sheet would make him an unrestricted free agent in 2023 (or in 2022 if it included a player option). If the Knicks keep Porzingis, they’ll likely have to pay him the max one way or the other.
If Durant signs with the Knicks, it’s easy to see things working out in New York. KD and KP are a perfect fit on the court and a marketable duo. The NBA doesn’t have many superstars to fill the early prime-time national TV time slot now that LeBron is on the Lakers. Durant, Porzingis, and the Knicks would essentially carve out a permanent residence in the 7:00 or 8:00 p.m. time slot. If the Knicks haggle with Porzingis, don’t sign Durant, and the team keeps losing, it might not be long until Porzingis’s irritations about the franchise return and he develops a wandering eye.
Bradley Beal, Wizards
If the Wizards are Queen’s 1982 album Hot Space, then Beal is “Under Pressure”—the lone bright spot on an otherwise forgettable release that shouldn’t exist. Now 25 years old, the shooting guard has improved every offseason and transformed into an All-Star. Beal extended his range off the dribble to shoot more 3s instead of long 2s, tightened his ballhandling to generate more offense for himself and others, and he mastered finishing angles around the rim. Beal has long been a stellar secondary scorer, and now with John Wall out for the rest of the season due to season-ending heel surgery, the Wizards are empowering Beal to handle more of the load. For the first time, the whole league will see what Beal can do as the man.
Beal is off to an impressive start: In eight games this season without Wall, Beal averaged 30.1 points, 7 assists, and 6.1 rebounds in 41.1 minutes per game. It’s a small sample, but it’s consistent with his numbers on a per-minute basis. With Wall off the floor, Beal is averaging 26 points and six assists per 36 minutes this season, compared to 22.1 points and 4.1 assists per 36 minutes with Wall. Beal is shooting more while maintaining his efficiency. Beal’s playmaking has also translated.
Beal does a good job of using different speeds in the pick-and-roll: He can go fast while staying under control or use hesitations to keep defenders off balance. In eight games this season without Wall, Beal is finishing 17.9 possessions per game using the pick-and-roll, compared to 8.4 when Wall plays, per Synergy Sports. Beal still needs to gain experience making tough reads in traffic off the dribble and putting better velocity on cross-court passes, but he looks fully capable of carrying more offensive responsibility.
It’s no wonder the Wizards are reluctant to trade Beal. Beal is still getting better after signing a five-year, $127.2 million contract in 2016. The Wizards have plenty of time before Beal, who will turn 28 in 2021, can decide whether he wants to raise his young family in the D.C. metro area.
The 2021 unrestricted free-agent class could also feature Blazers teammates Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum and Thunder forward Paul George, but they will all be in their 30s by then, which diminishes their overall appeal. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Victor Oladipo, and Rudy Gobert could also join them in the market, but they all are happy in their respective situations. Meanwhile in Washington, during the infamous volatile practice earlier this season, Beal reportedly lashed out at team officials and said he’s been “dealing with this for seven years.” Beal is already a versatile scoring guard with many suitors; he might end up the top acquirable target of his class if his recent play is any indication of what’s to come.
Devin Booker, Suns
Booker became just the 11th player to average over 24 points before turning 22 years old last season—everyone else who has is either in the Hall of Fame or on the path to it. Now, at 22, the Suns guard has continued his rapid ascension: Booker is averaging 24.8 points and 6.9 assists. If he maintains these numbers, he’ll join Derrick Rose, LeBron, Tracy McGrady, Michael Jordan, and Oscar Robertson as the only players to average over 24 and 5 before turning 23, per Basketball Reference. Booker’s 56.3 true shooting percentage reflects his impressive efficiency given his age and heavy usage.
The Suns have a bright future. Booker is blossoming, and center Deandre Ayton is having one of the best seasons for a rookie center in recent memory. With T.J. Warren, Mikal Bridges, and Josh Jackson at wing, plus De’Anthony Melton and Elie Okobo at guard, the Suns have young and talented complementary pieces. Factor in upcoming cap flexibility and another top pick in the 2019 NBA draft, the Suns could soon be viewed as a destination. Booker told Yahoo Sports earlier this season that he wants to “build a superteam” in Phoenix. Someday, Booker might get his wish.
Robert Sarver still owns the team, though, and Booker has also already expressed frustration about losing. During his exit interview with the media last season, Booker said that he’s “done with not making the playoffs.” Too bad: The Suns are 9-32, and the Western Conference isn’t getting any weaker any time soon. Potential isn’t always realized. The Suns’ youth could always fail to develop, or they might find themselves maxing out in the same playoff bubble the Pelicans are in now. Would that be enough to keep a potential superstar like Booker happy?
Booker made a commitment to the Suns by signing the same contract that Towns did in Minnesota, and his talent gives the franchise a strong chance to build a winner by 2024. It may feel like there’s a lot of time until then, but that summer two close friends in the prime of their career will both hit the free-agent market. The planning starts now.