Even though I had previously thought that the NFL schedules too many international games, I woke up last Sunday an hour early (thanks, daylight saving time) with a feeling of emptiness. There was no football to watch. Liverpool and Arsenal didn’t start until 11 a.m. ET, either.
Somehow, last Sunday marked the only week for two months without international football in the morning. When we needed it most, the NFL abandoned us. I’m not a “football must be on every hour of every day” guy, but I am glad that we have a compelling international game this Sunday morning.
And like Michael Penix Jr., it can’t possibly go worse for me than it did last week. Both Penix and I had our worst weeks of the season, and now we’re both fighting for our futures.
After a 3-5 record last week, the column is clinging to a winning record at 31-28. The Favorite Five is 21-19. Will the inevitable and looming specter of .500 finally overcome us? Or can we continue to remain above water?
Thursday Night Football
Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens (+9.5)
The Ravens were 3-point favorites on the lookahead line, and the line has moved nearly 13 points following Sunday’s results, plus injuries to both Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley. The Ravens traded for Jacoby Brissett on Wednesday, but he cannot play on Thursday and will be a medium-term fix for the team. That leaves the Ravens with third-stringer Joe Fagnano and Kedon Slovis, whom they signed off the Packers’ practice squad after Slovis played in the preseason with the Cardinals.
Fagnano finished 10-of-21 for 91 yards in emergency backup action against one of the league’s worst defenses on Sunday. Most of the throws were not competitive. When you add in that this is a rookie head coach (Jesse Minter) on a short week, and that Fagnano is dealing with a heavy brace on his injured ankle, this is the single worst spot of the NFL season so far.
It’s extremely hard to draw up a scenario in which the Ravens are a competitive NFL offense on Thursday. The Jaguars did lose run-stopping defensive tackle DaVon Hamilton to injury for the rest of the season in their win against Indianapolis, but they remain a pass funnel defense that allows next to nothing on the ground.
Since Anthony Campanile became Jaguars defensive coordinator at the start of 2025, the Jaguars are second only to Seattle in EPA per rush allowed.
While the Ravens offense is drawing dead, the Jaguars offense is also unlikely to have top running back Bhaysel Tuten after he again missed practice on Wednesday. He and Chris Rodriguez Jr. actually have comparable metrics in the rushing game, but Tuten’s prowess as a receiving back would be missed in this game. The Ravens defense hasn’t been as great at taking away explosive plays as expected under Minter, but the absence of Tuten is a notable downgrade in the Jags’ offensive big play potential if they’re playing with a lead in the second half.
The Ravens should get an all-in effort from their defense at home, and a very run-heavy script for their offense to protect Fagnano to begin the game.
Bet: First half under 20.5 points (–120)
The Favorite Five (21-19)
New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs (–9.5)
Look, no one ever wants to bet on the Jets. Especially after yet another brutal loss, this time at home against the Raiders in a favorable spot after another blown lead. In fact, I actively look for reasons to not have to bet the Jets every single week. Through eight weeks, I have only wagered on them twice. However, I can’t pass up this price on them to be competitive against the Chiefs on Sunday. Garrett Wilson went into concussion protocol and probably won’t play, but the Jets offense has numerous explosive players that can separate downfield against a Kansas City secondary that is likely to be without star rookie corner Mansoor Delane yet again. The Chiefs defense has not been able to generate consistent enough pressure this year, and New York’s offensive line still grades out as one of the league’s best in pass protection. That’s a recipe for an efficient Geno Smith dropback game, especially since the Chiefs are just 20th in EPA per pass allowed when not blitzing.
Kansas City should be able to control this game through its rushing attack. The dropoff from playing the Seattle and Denver run defenses to the Jets is significant and will present more opportunities for Kenneth Walker III after two consecutive mediocre games. However, the Chiefs’ pass offense still isn’t consistently hitting downfield throws, and is reliant on heavy YAC production from Rashee Rice or even Emmett Johnson to generate big pass plays. This feels like a textbook Chiefs comfortable home win where they win by a score, but fail to cover the spread that’s still too high after coming down from Jets +10 on Monday.
Bet: Jets +9.5 (–105)
Los Angeles Rams at Washington Commanders (+4.5)
The Rams lack a downfield passing threat without Davante Adams in the lineup. Puka Nacua is unstoppable underneath as a high-volume pass catcher, and the Rams can generate the occasional big run play, but there’s no one threatening to rip the top off an opposing defense. Add in that Matthew Stafford has a sore throwing arm, and it’s time to sound some alarm bells about the state of the Rams offense.
Los Angeles dominated indoors against the Raiders with its run game two weeks ago and slogged past an anemic Chargers team last week, but the passing game still isn’t operating near the heights we saw last season. The Rams can and should be able to run the ball in this matchup, so I expect them to lean on that extra heavily to try to protect their aging quarterback.
If the Commanders have a defensive weakness, it’s their secondary’s proclivity to allow big passing plays downfield. Washington has allowed the fifth-most EPA on passes of at least 10 yards in the league, but, hey, that doesn’t matter as much on Sunday with Adams out.
Washington’s offense ended up with decent stats at home against the Eagles, but that unit doesn’t pass the eye test at all. The run game is based on a handful of mediocre running backs, and the offense doesn’t have a true no. 1 without Terry McLaurin. They found an explosive play to Treylon Burks to break open the game against the Eagles, but their red zone issues and lack of drive consistency are growing concerns. Unless Jayden Daniels is able to run like Josh Allen did against Chris Shula’s defense, this total is a couple of points too high.
Bet: Under 47.5 points (–106)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears (–6.5)
For the third week in a row—and the fourth time in six games—this is a Tampa Bay Buccaneers fan column. The Bucs have rescued their season from an 0-4 start and won three of their last four to move within a half game of first place in the NFC South. As I wrote last week before their 16-0 smothering of Atlanta in monsoon rains, I have the Bucs rated as the best team in the division going forward. Their defense proved again why it’s the best unit in the division, and their elite run defense (second in EPA per rush allowed) will create a fascinating strength-on-strength matchup against a usually excellent Chicago running game on Sunday.
The Bears are on a short week after a dominant performance in all three phases in Seattle that vaulted their power rating into the tier of elite NFL teams. The defense had poor metrics early in the season, but it’s clear the returns of slot corner Kyler Gordon and pass rusher Montez Sweat and the trade for All-Pro defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons should make them an average or maybe even above-average defense the rest of the season. However, the Bears defense isn’t without holes. It’s allowed the second-highest explosive play rate in the league and allowed numerous big plays to the Seahawks last week. This remains a massive problem for them when they’re asked to lay points as a big favorite.
We also need more data on the Bears with Simmons to see how they’re going to hold up in the run game. Chicago had no issues bottling up an anemic Seattle run offense last week, but this is a much different test. Who knows if Baker Mayfield can throw downfield accurately; he’s barely thrown the ball in the last two weeks. But Tampa Bay is still the most underrated team in the NFL, and I’ll take them catching nearly a touchdown as they avoid getting run over by Chicago.
Bet: Buccaneers +6.5 (–110)
Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots (–3)
Hunter Henry, TreVeyon Henderson, and A.J. Brown once again did not practice for the Patriots on Wednesday, which leaves the team severely lacking in downfield passing playmakers. The Patriots slogged their way past a terrible Miami defense last week, but at no point did New England’s offense look efficient, even in a favorable matchup.
Green Bay’s defense does two things that will make life much more difficult for the Patriots. First, it limits big plays and downfield throws. Green Bay has allowed the third-least EPA on passes of at least 10 air yards in the NFL (behind only Seattle and our Bucs). The Packers also take away both the slot and tight ends as capably as any defense in the league. The way to beat Green Bay’s secondary is to throw to the outside boundary receivers, and the Patriots don’t have any receivers who can reliably win their matchups there. Drake Maye won’t be able to force-feed his tight ends, as the Packers are seventh in DVOA against that position.
On the other side of the matchup, Green Bay’s offense continues to be the biggest boom-or-bust unit in the league. It moved the ball at will against a badly injured Carolina defense on a short week, but New England will present a tougher test than recently fired Panthers defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero did. The Patriots are vulnerable to teams with effective downfield passing attacks, and this is a high-variance matchup where I don’t mind taking a shot on the Packers to win. For one, the NFC North has dominated out of division this year. Plus, most Green Bay toss-up games come down to whether or not Jordan Love connects with Christian Watson and Matthew Golden downfield enough. Either way, the total is too high at 46.5.
Bet: Under 46.5 points (–118)
Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers (+4.5)
Every week I write in this column about how I’ve never seen a worse offensive situation than the one Justin Herbert is currently in. The lack of synergy between quarterback and play caller. The collection of turnstiles known as his offensive line. The cluster of injuries at the skill positions. It all was completely overwhelming for Herbert by Week 3, and I’ve said as much while also deciding not to bet against the Chargers every week in this column. Well, I got tired of sitting on the sideline.
I have an irrational belief in the Texans defense, even as it continues to make me look stupid each and every week. Compared to last season, the tackling is worse. The run defense is worse. It’s allowing more big downfield throws. Houston is worse by every single defensive metric. But you know what, when you play the Chargers, throw out the metrics. Herbert is seeing ghosts and donating one or two ridiculous turnovers per game.
Houston has the rest advantage. There’s virtually zero home-field advantage in Los Angeles. And I think key nickel corner Jalen Pitre will return for the Texans. The Chargers’ offensive line against this ferocious and rested Texans pass rush is one of the biggest mismatches of the entire NFL season.
Now that I’m joining the party and fading the Chargers, they’ll probably play inspired ball on Sunday. But it’s more likely that Herbert will be under siege for three straight hours and the Texans will win by a touchdown or more.
Bet: Texans –4.5 (–118)
Other Bets
Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins (+7)
The dream of an improved Lions back seven unfortunately lasted only two weeks before the injury bug got them again. Jack Campbell suffered a scary neck injury in the win against Minnesota. Brian Branch is in concussion protocol. D.J. Reed is listed as questionable and did not practice on Wednesday. That’s most of the Lions’ best back-seven players, and now it’s a third consecutive week in which the Dolphins should be feisty as an underdog because their offense can keep them in the game. Miami has been able to generate big rushing plays in the two games since its bye week. Malik Willis has been effective as a scrambler and runner, which should be an option given how vulnerable Detroit is to those types of quarterbacks. The Lions also struggle massively against tight ends—they’ve allowed the most EPA against them in the NFL. In the past three weeks, Dolphins tight end Greg Dulcich has been the top receiving option for Willis.
Miami’s defense won’t offer much resistance given the state of its back seven, and no offense in the NFL (OK, maybe Buffalo’s) is better built to be a high-floor, flat-track bully than Detroit’s. The weather looks nice on Sunday in Miami, and as a result, this total should be north of 51.
Bet: Over 50.5 points (–105)
Games I’m Considering
Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts (+5.5)
My early opinion is that this is too many points for Dallas to be favored by and that this total is way too high for two offenses that have shockingly little explosiveness right now. The Colts are 31st in explosive play rate and still committed to playing Daniel Jones every week. The Cowboys are sneakily bad in this category, ranking 24th. The Cowboys have been fine as a running team, but the lack of big plays to George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb (outside of one game against Philly) is one of the biggest surprises of the 2026 NFL season for me.
The Colts defense matches up pretty well with Dallas too. It has strong outside corners to match up with Dallas’s wide receivers, and the Cowboys aren’t getting much from the tight end position, which has killed Indy all season long. As a result, the under seems appealing.
But then you remember that this is the Cowboys and Colts, indoors, and you probably don’t want to bet the under anymore. That sounds like a miserable experience. I narrowly avoided a brutal overtime beat on Cardinals-Cowboys last week by simply not betting the under. And I will probably exercise restraint with this game, too.
Bet: Consider under 51.5 points
Notes on the Rest
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Atlanta Falcons (+3) in Madrid
- You could make a case that the Bengals and Falcons are the two most Jekyll-and-Hyde teams in the NFL this year.
- Add in the international factor, and I’m ready for just about any scenario here.
- The Falcons’ pass rush should be considerably upgraded because of the return of James Pearce Jr. from suspension (for violating the league’s personal conduct policy following a February arrest on domestic violence charges), but the Bengals have an overwhelming talent advantage against the Falcons’ secondary, which will be without A.J. Terrell.
- It’s a good instinct to want to reflexively bet on a team after a shutout loss, but this game is perfectly priced for me. I have Cincinnati 2.5 points better than an average team and Atlanta just below average. I don’t expect this line to move off three by kickoff.
- The Bengals haven’t been throwing downfield much this year, which could support an under. But it’s not like they can’t do that if they want or need to.
Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers (+3)
- Carolina was in a nightmare schedule spot on the road at Lambeau last week with most of the secondary out. Will Lee III missed practice on Wednesday, which makes their corner situation untenable.
- However, if there’s any team you want to play while dealing with corner injuries, it might be the Broncos and Bo Nix. Denver’s passing game plays only one quarter per game, after all. I wrote at length about Nix’s (pre-fourth-quarter) struggles last week and will save repeating that.
- The Panthers could introduce some new defensive wrinkles since they fired Ejiro Evero, but they’re still a bad run defense on paper and may again be without top pass rusher Jaelan Phillips (DNP Wednesday).
- The biggest mismatch in this game looks like a struggling Panthers offensive line against this Denver defensive line. Bryce Young could take a lot of sacks for the third consecutive week given how much quick pressure Carolina is allowing.
- Even though I hate this matchup for Carolina, I’ll be damned before I lay three on the road with Nix against a team on extra rest.
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (+3)
- The Eagles announced a quarterback change, with Joe Milton taking over for Tanner McKee, but it’s hard to imagine anyone could do worse at quarterback than McKee did in the last three games.
- The market did not move at all upon the announcement of Milton in for McKee. The more important development for the Eagles is whether they can get any of their offensive skill-position players healthy.
- DeVonta Smith, Saquon Barkley, and Dontayvion Wicks all missed practice on Wednesday and are trending toward being out or compromised on Sunday. Philly has no chance to get big plays against a bad Giants secondary without them.
- The Eagles have never won as a home underdog with Nick Sirianni (0-8), and he’s in serious danger of bottoming out here. I’ll probably just wait to play the Giants in the second half.
Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints (–3)
- Deshaun Watson is in concussion protocol, which means that Shedeur Sanders will probably start on Sunday.
- Sanders’s numbers were absolutely dreadful at the end of last season, but he had a significantly less talented group of offensive skill-position players at his side for those games.
- The betting odds moved from New Orleans –2.5 to –3 after the Sanders news, but even at home off a bye, I couldn’t lay three points with a Saints offense that looks incapable of running the ball consistently.
- Cleveland’s biggest weakness is its run defense, but the Saints can’t exploit that.
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (–8.5)
- The Seahawks ruled out Sam Darnold with a quad injury, and the line moved from 11.5 to 8.5 on Wednesday.
- We’ve seen Drew Lock be completely fine operating this offense, but we do not know whether Lock is healthy as he recovers from an elbow injury. Mike Macdonald said that Lock will start, but he will be managed throughout practice. He was the third-string quarterback each of the last two weeks.
- I try to avoid betting games with this much quarterback health uncertainty, especially with a team laying 8.5 points.
- Gardner Minshew is almost certain to try to force the ball downfield against an elite Seattle secondary, and that will probably lead to an interception or two. But I have little confidence here since Lock is so uncertain.
