The Tampa Bay Buccaneers made sports betting history on Sunday with their seven-point loss to the Minnesota Vikings.
Never before in the Super Bowl era has a team failed to cover the spread in 12 consecutive games. The Bucs were favored in eight of those games too! This isn’t a simple case of a bad team being worse than expected. This is an example of a formerly above-average football team combusting in a dramatic free fall that spans multiple seasons. Now without Baker Mayfield, the Bucs will face an uphill challenge to win a home game against the also free-falling Packers on Sunday. But most importantly, for betting history, can they cover as four-point home underdogs?
The insertion of undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels into the lineup is another example of a fascinating trend that has been developing this season. There are five backup quarterbacks who have started games this season following an injury to the starter.
- Jameis Winston led the Giants to a win and cover in his first start after replacing Jaxson Dart.
- Case Keenum led the Bears to an upset win in his first start after replacing Caleb Williams.
- Drew Lock led the Seahawks to a win and cover in his first start after replacing Sam Darnold.
- Carson Wentz led the Vikings to an upset win in his first start after replacing Kyler Murray.
- Marcus Mariota led the Commanders to an upset win in his first start after replacing Jayden Daniels.
This Bucs-Packers matchup is bad. The loser’s head coach could be fired following the game. Yet it may also be the most interesting betting game of the week.
After a middling 4-4 record last week (thanks for nothing, Tampa), my picks in this column are now 15-9 through three weeks. We’ve got a loaded slate with the return of early-morning international football. Here are my thoughts on all 16 games, starting with Thursday Night Football.
Thursday Night Football
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (+2.5)
Since the start of the 2022 season, Cleveland is a full standard deviation better than every other pass defense in the NFL on its home turf. You could attribute much of that to Myles Garrett, Jim Schwartz, and some bad weather. But sure enough, the Browns shut down Carolina’s red-hot pass offense in their home opener last week.
We all wondered what would happen to the Browns’ pressure rate numbers following Garrett’s departure. And through three weeks, Cleveland is in the top five in pressure rate.
As we know, this is the kryptonite of the Pittsburgh offense. They reshuffled their offensive line last week to great success against the Bengals. But the offensive line needs a real upgrade going forward, and the Browns’ defensive line will probably apply more pressure than Cincy’s did. And don’t expect Aaron Rodgers to be successful when pressured given his track record.
Since the trench matchups favor the defensive lines on both sides, I’ll take a small bet against these two offenses.
Bet: Under 38.5 points (–110)
The Favorite Five (9-6)
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (–6.5)
Drake Maye’s problems run a whole lot deeper than the fact that he’s playing against much better opposing defenses than he did last year. Maye went from being the league’s most efficient deep passer last year to ranking 25th in expected points added per dropback on passes of at least 15 yards so far this season. Maye’s footwork and decision-making have dropped off dramatically, and he’s not in sync with his skill players enough to consistently complete passes downfield. His receiver room is generating no separation downfield and has no explosiveness to create big plays. A road game against a good defensive line won’t make it any easier for the Patriots to solve their many issues.
The Patriots rank dead last in points per possession. There’s some positive regression coming because the offense is converting a league-worst 16 percent of red zone appearances into touchdowns, but the market is still pricing this unit as league average when it is simply much worse than that right now.
The biggest weakness of the Bills defense is the secondary. C.J. Stroud and Jared Goff carved up that unit in the first two weeks. But the Patriots are not the offense to exploit this weakness.
The Bills will probably play with a lead for most of the second half. And they’ll be able to run the ball efficiently. With New England’s defense taking away explosives well through three weeks, all signs point to this total being way too high at 48.5.
Bet: Under 48.5 points (–110)
Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants (+1.5)
The Giants gave Jameis Winston a multiyear contract extension this offseason, which indicated that they believed he was a highly competent backup quarterback. Yet after he made one appearance in relief of the injured Jaxson Dart in Week 2, the Giants began looking for a quarterback replacement and settled on a trade for reclamation project J.J. McCarthy. I’m willing to give Winston a bit of a pass for another poor showing in Week 3’s monsoon conditions against the Titans, but I have seen nothing these past two weeks to suggest that Winston’s arm still has life.
He’s been bad in ways that are unusual for him. Instead of making the occasional reckless decision or overly aggressive throw into coverage, Winston is flat-out missing open receivers and throwing way off target. His completion percentage over expected is minus-16.3, which puts him behind every other quarterback in the league thus far. That’s worse than Cooper Rush’s CPOE!
My read of the McCarthy trade is that the Giants no longer believe Winston can be a long-term starter in the NFL. He’s not a natural fit for the offense either, since he won’t be involved in the running game like Dart was.
On paper, this is a favorable matchup for the Giants. The Cardinals defense is dealing with secondary injuries and has generated almost no stops for the past six quarters against the Niners and Seahawks. But in a matchup of two bad secondaries and two bad pass rushes, I’m much more confident in Jacoby Brissett’s ability to run a consistent and sustainable NFL passing offense right now.
The Cardinals have the better skill group, better QB, and better offensive play caller. They should win this football game.
Bet: Cardinals –1.5 (–110)
Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers (+3.5)
The Panthers are expected to get critically important linebacker Devin Lloyd back from a calf injury in Week 4, but the injury situation as a whole is bleak for them entering this game against the Lions. Both of Carolina’s top corners—Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson Jr.—were placed on injured reserve. Jalen Coker also picked up a quad injury, and his absence for the remainder of the game really limited their offense last week in a loss to Cleveland.
Carolina defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero runs a zone-heavy scheme. Given the personnel limitations, he’ll have no choice but to try to sit in softer zones and force Detroit’s explosive offense to be more methodical.
Early signs for the Lions offense indicate that new coordinator Drew Petzing has improved that unit’s down-to-down consistency considerably. The sample is only three games, but that unit looks much closer to the pre-2025 offenses under OC Ben Johnson.
The Panthers still don’t generate much pressure, and while they have prevented explosive plays well the past two weeks, I suspect that had a lot to do with playing against the Deshaun Watson and Cooper Rush offenses. This is an ideal matchup for Jared Goff and the Lions offense to score a ton of points.
Bet: Lions team total over 27.5 (–110)
Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings (–10.5)
Miami has the league’s worst early-down offensive success rate through three weeks. And now they’re without De’Von Achane for the remainder of the season. And they haven’t played a single defense near the caliber of Brian Flores’s Vikings yet. That’s a recipe for disaster on Sunday.
The Dolphins actually moved the ball pretty well last week against the Chiefs because their offense went an unsustainable 8-for-16 on third down. The offensive line held up enough on those passing downs against an underwhelming Kansas City pass rush, and they sustained drives better than expected. However, those conversions didn’t lead to points. The Dolphins are second-worst in the league at scoring touchdowns in the red zone, and I don’t think they’re going to be able to survive on third downs against Flores enough to even get there much.
Flores is spamming blitzes this season and generating a ton of pressure on them.
Eventually a team will figure out how to solve the excessive blitzing of the Flores defense and expose the Vikings for numerous explosive plays. I don’t think the Dolphins are that team.
The Dolphins’ red zone offensive personnel issues and generationally bad pass defense mean that they’re going to continue to underperform the fundamentals. Eventually, they’ll keep a game within 10 points. But this game is not that game.
Bet: Vikings –10.5 (–110)
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+4)
Look, I get it. No one actually wants to bet on the Bucs. Because that means you’ll be more inclined to watch this football game than you normally would be. And I still haven’t recovered from the scarring experience of watching Tampa Bay and Minnesota play one of the worst offensive games in recent NFL history last week.
This one could be just as bad. The Packers offensive line is completely useless right now. Jordan Love has the second-quickest time to throw in the league, and he’s still getting pressured at the second-highest rate in the league. That shouldn’t even be possible, and it shows how unfathomably bad the line is. Green Bay brought in veteran guard Kevin Zeitler this week, but I fear they’re rearranging deck chairs on the sinking ship of their season now that RT Zach Bako-Bewele is done for the year.
The Packers’ run game is completely nonexistent too. It won’t be effective against a very stout Tampa Bay run defense. So now you’re expecting this Packers offense to find enough one-off explosive plays down the field to generate margin on the road.
The Bucs clearly saw enough from Jalon Daniels in the preseason to warrant him being the backup quarterback. And a matchup with a passive Packers defense that won’t bring much pressure is an ideal landing spot for your first NFL start. It’s ugly, and sometimes betting the NFL is ugly. After all, I bet on Case Keenum in Week 3. But here we are. Either the Bucs extend their historic streak of not covering football games, or we’re 6-0 with backup quarterbacks in the NFL this year.
Bet: Buccaneers +4 (–110)
Other Bets
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (+3)
Through three weeks, the Eagles are a fully mediocre team. The offense is averaging fewer points per drive than it did last year under dismissed offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo. The Eagles haven’t had a functional early-down running game in five of the six halves they’ve played this season, and all three games were against clearly below-average defenses (Washington, Tennessee, and Chicago).
It’s not shocking that the Eagles have an inconsistent offense, given what we saw from them last year. The bigger surprise is how inconsistent the Eagles defense has been. The run defense ranks 19th in EPA per rush allowed. They’ve had issues with their new safeties and linebacker Jihaad Campbell in coverage. The Rams offense could have issues if Puka Nacua isn’t playing again, but the spread is still too low at Rams –3. And if Nacua is in, I expect this line to move closer to –3.5.
Nick Sirianni is 4-0 against Sean McVay head-to-head in his career, but Sirianni’s Eagles haven’t looked this weak since the end of the 2023 season. And the Rams are so much more well-schemed offensively that I’m willing to ignore a second-half collapse against Denver and a bizarre Week 1 performance in Melbourne.
Bet: Rams –3 (–115)
Games I’m Considering
New York Jets at Chicago Bears (–3.5)
The Jets’ injury report remains a major question mark entering this week. Adonai Mitchell, Breece Hall, Mason Taylor, and Dylan Parham all did not practice on Wednesday. All are considered week-to-week, which would suggest they will all miss Sunday’s game in Chicago, but it’ll be worth waiting until later in the week to get a clearer picture here.
On paper, the Bears are laying an extra half point than they should if the Jets have most of their offense healthy. New York’s offensive line against Chicago’s defensive line is a major mismatch in favor of the Jets. I think the Bears’ defensive performance against the Eagles said a lot more about the Eagles’ second-half offensive dysfunction than anything else.
Previously, the Eagles hadn’t been able to consistently run the ball on Washington or Tennessee. Their early-down run offense was a mess. Yet Saquon Barkley averaged 5.5 yards per carry on Monday. It sounds ludicrous to write, but it’s not absurd to say that the Jets have a better offense right now than the Eagles.
On Monday night, the Bears closed +3.5 at home. Now laying 3.5 on a short week is a much tougher task. I’ll wait for more injury news, and I don’t want to make a habit of betting against Ben Johnson, but the Jets +3.5 is too many points.
Bet: Consider Jets +3.5
Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans (–2.5)
The Cowboys hit the reset button after a disastrous 2025 season, building a whole new defense with new coordinator Christian Parker. It didn’t work. They remain one of the league’s worst defenses, and now they’re dealing with a medley of injuries at multiple levels. Only the Lions and Dolphins have allowed more points per drive than the Cowboys. Since the season began, they’ve lost defensive tackle Jonathan Bullard, linebacker DeMarvion Overshown, corner Cobie Durant, and multiple safeties. They’ve been decimated at all three levels and are in a difficult travel spot coming back from Rio de Janeiro. The only defense I currently have rated worse than Dallas’s is Miami’s.
Even though the Texans offense has its various issues, the Dallas defense is the worst of the four main units on the field.
Meanwhile, the matchup between the elite Texans defense and stellar Cowboys offense is fascinating. Dallas has a quarterback willing to throw the ball down the field against tight man-to-man coverage. Dak Prescott is also willing and able to exploit the weaknesses that Houston has over the middle defensively now that Azeez Al-Shaair is out.
The big question for this matchup is the status of Texans wideout Nico Collins. The drop-off from Collins to every other skill player on the offense is massive. The market is sitting at Houston –2.5, and if Collins plays, I suspect this line will close at Texans –3. It’s a clear lean their way for me, but laying points with the 2026 Texans isn’t something I want to do often.
Bet: Consider Texans –2.5
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals (–2.5)
The Jaguars played one bad half in Denver—a notoriously difficult second-half spot at altitude—but have otherwise dominated their opening three games of the season.
Since Anthony Campanile became defensive coordinator at the start of last season, Jacksonville ranks top five in points allowed per drive. It’s not an overly talented defense with great pass rushers or corners, but it’s impressive how well-coached the Jaguars are. And they’re flying under the radar as an AFC contender as a result. Just look back to January, when the Jaguars nearly toppled the Bills in the wild-card round.
The Jaguars are better than the Bengals on early downs on both sides of the ball. By combined success rate on early downs, Jacksonville is seventh, while Cincinnati sits at 18th. The question that defines this matchup is whether Joe Burrow and his elite wide receiver duo can win enough on late downs to overcome what I think is Jacksonville’s better-schemed offense.
The market has sat at Cincy –2.5 all week, and I don’t expect it to get to three. The Jaguars would be a bet for me at +3, but it’s just a lean for me at +2.5.
Bet: Consider Jaguars +2.5, bet at +3
Notes on the Rest
Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers (–2.5)
- The 49ers are finally facing a great defense. Their gaudy EPA numbers are inflated by games against the Cardinals’ backup secondary and the Dolphins.
- The weakest group in this matchup is the 49ers’ defensive line, but the Broncos have been a middling run team this season. Their lack of an explosive back limits their offense considerably.
- Every time the market moves toward San Francisco –3, sharp money buys it back to 2.5.
- In Week 3, its first game without Nick Bosa, the 49ers defense had the third-lowest pressure rate of any team. That stat should alarm anyone who has any faith in the SF defense.
- I’ll be looking to live bet Denver once it falls behind in this game given the lack of a pass rush from San Francisco.
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders (+4.5)
- Maxx Crosby has been one of the best defensive players in the league, and he could really test a Kansas City offensive line that hasn’t faced a real pass rusher in the past two weeks.
- Patrick Mahomes’s downfield passing accuracy and zip are much better than they were in both the 2023 and 2024 seasons, and the offense is much more explosive as a result.
- The Chiefs offense ranks top five in explosiveness through three weeks, while the Raiders are in the bottom five. That kind of gap will be hard for the Raiders to overcome to win this game.
- I am extremely dubious of the Raiders’ defensive EPA numbers and suspect they are very much opponent- and turnover-driven.
- If I had to bet the game, I’d be looking into betting on the Chiefs offense early.
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens (–11.5)
- This is a textbook spot where the Ravens could come out flat following an international game and a difficult travel schedule, even though the Titans are one of the worst teams in the league.
- The Titans’ special teams rank 31st in DVOA and are almost 2025 Rams–level bad through three weeks.
- Baltimore’s offensive line is down to its third-string center and may not have Ronnie Stanley. Given that the Titans’ biggest strength is their defensive line, there’s a risk that the Ravens offensive line will get caved in and they won’t live up to the lofty market expectations for them in this game.
- It’s dog or pass for me, but I’ll pass betting on Cam Ward.
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (–2.5)
- What a difference a week can make for the Falcons. After two embarrassing offensive showings in the first two weeks, the Falcons will probably be alone in first place in the NFC South if they win in New Orleans on Monday night.
- The Falcons’ offensive line has allowed the lowest pressure rate in the NFL. Michael Penix Jr. should be very comfortable given how little pressure the Saints have produced.
- If you were hoping to bet the over with two explosive and fun offenses playing indoors, you may have missed your moment. The total sits four points higher than the look-ahead line prior to last week.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Washington Commanders (+3.5) in London
- Washington beat the Seahawks in an upset last week, but Kevin Cole’s adjusted score for the game was 28-17 in favor of Seattle. The Commanders won because they were essentially plus-4 in turnovers. They were crushed from a success rate and down-to-down perspective.
- The market moved from Indianapolis –3 to –3.5 early in the week, and there’s been very little resistance to that move.
- The Colts’ explosive play rate was among the best in all of football when Daniel Jones played last year. But in the first three weeks of the season, with Jones’s mobility and downfield passing limited and Alec Pierce out, they’ve been forced to be a lot more methodical.
- While the secondary has struggled, Washington’s run defense has graded out as one of the league’s best by EPA.
- I would lean Washington +3.5, but I’m not betting this game.
