Just 10 days remain in the MLB regular season, and, somehow, it’s possible that we might see a division champion with a losing record, a team that lost 121 games two years ago earn a first-round bye, and a winner-take-all showdown on the final weekend.
The final week of regular-season baseball usually promises more chaos than it actually delivers. Expanded playoffs have zapped some of the juice from pennant races that once defined September, while the league’s best teams are mostly focused on arranging their rotations and keeping everyone healthy for October.
This year, the playoff field has mostly taken shape already, but the final 10 days will determine what the bracket looks like—and whether several pieces of baseball history are made along the way. Here are the seven biggest stories to follow before October begins.
The Enshittification of the AL West Race
No team has ever won a division with fewer than 82 wins in a full 162-game season. The 2005 Padres established the current (low) standard by winning the NL West at 82-80 before being promptly swept out of the division series. This year, the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers have a legitimate opportunity to lower that bar and become the first team to win a division with a losing record.
This is the NFC Southification of Major League Baseball.
These two flawed teams have taken turns declining control of a race that someone is obligated to win, even if no one quite deserves it. The eventual champion will likely receive the no. 3 seed in the AL playoff bracket and host a wild-card series against an equally mediocre no. 6 that could well be the West division runner-up.
The most remarkable part is that neither team was expected to be here. Seattle entered the season as the clear division favorite and had the second-best odds to win the American League after reaching the ALCS last year. Instead, the Mariners stumbled through the first half and have collapsed after the All-Star break, going just 23-32 since.
By contrast, the Astros and Rangers were expected to be slightly above .500 when the season began … and that’s basically what has happened. Entering Friday, the Astros sit at 77-76, one game ahead of the 76-77 Rangers. Houston owns the head-to-head tiebreaker, but also has the more difficult remaining schedule, beginning with a weekend series against Atlanta. FanGraphs gives Houston a 77.9 percent chance to win the division, compared with 21.7 percent for Texas.
The White Sox’s Pursuit of History
Two years after setting the modern MLB record with 121 losses, the Chicago White Sox are nine games away from potentially earning a first-round bye and hosting a playoff series.
That sentence alone makes the AL Central worth watching until the final day.
Oddsmakers set Chicago’s preseason win total around 65.5 and priced the White Sox at roughly 20-to-1 to win the division. Those expectations were hardly unreasonable for a franchise only beginning to emerge from one of the most miserable stretches in baseball history. Instead, the White Sox have already cleared their projected win total by double digits and transformed a rebuilding year into an ahead-of-schedule division race.
There is something beautifully absurd about watching the White Sox arrive this quickly. Young players like Colson Montgomery, Kyle Teel, Miguel Vargas, and Munetaka Murakami have given Chicago a real long-term core to build around, while a patchwork pitching staff has done just enough to keep the season alive.
Chicago enters Friday at 78-75, tied with Cleveland, after the Guardians took two of three in their final head-to-head series. Chicago at least owns the season-series tiebreaker, meaning the Sox effectively need only to finish even with Cleveland to win the division. FanGraphs gives them a slight 50.5 percent edge to pull it off and an 80 percent chance to reach the playoffs.
This would be one of the fastest two-year turnarounds in recent MLB history. And in an American League with so much mediocrity outside of the top three teams, one of Chicago, Cleveland, Texas, or Houston is probably going to find itself in the ALCS.
Yordan Alvarez’s Hunt for the Triple Crown
Not only are the Astros in the midst of a division and playoff chase, but their superstar slugger and soon-to-be-MVP has a chance at the first batting Triple Crown since Miguel Cabrera in 2012 and just the second since Carl Yastrzemski did it in 1967. Yordan Alvarez enters Friday ranked second in the American League with 40 home runs, one behind Junior Caminero. He is tied with Chandler Simpson with a .311 batting average, and he is three RBIs behind Pete Alonso.
Alvarez led all three categories for a good portion of the summer, but he’s lost his grip on the rare feat because he’s struggled (relatively) over the past several weeks. Alvarez still has a well-above-average .269/.405/.455 slash line since the trade deadline, but he’s only had four homers and 16 RBI in that span.
The margins are narrow enough to make every Alvarez plate appearance matter. One big series could erase the home run and RBI deficits, while one 0-for-4 could knock him several points behind Simpson in the batting race. Houston’s playoff chase ensures Alvarez should receive every available opportunity, creating the possibility that the final week of the AL West race will double as a nightly Triple Crown scoreboard watch. Even if he falls short, Alvarez has already produced the defining offensive season of 2026. If he gets hot again, he can turn it into one that echoes throughout history.
Arizona’s Bid to Steal the Final NL Wild-Card Slot
The Diamondbacks have nine games to erase a four-game deficit. That would ordinarily make Arizona’s pursuit of San Diego an extreme long shot, but the schedule has provided one possible escape hatch: The Snakes finish the season with three games at Petco Park.
If Arizona can arrive in San Diego within three games of the Padres, it will control its own destiny. A sweep would erase the deficit and give the Diamondbacks the season-series tiebreaker. Baseball could effectively have a play-in series before the playoffs actually begin.
Arizona’s challenge is surviving long enough to make that final weekend matter. Arizona first hosts the Yankees before traveling to Coors Field for three games against the Rockies. The Diamondbacks have already lost ground by losing two of three at home to Miami, including Wednesday’s game after the Marlins used Sandy Alcantara in relief for the first save of his career.
Arizona has an outside chance of catching Philadelphia or Chicago too. But without another head-to-head opportunity, those paths are extremely unlikely. And given that San Diego has won nine of 10 and is surging, the Snakes need to hope the Dodgers help them play spoiler next week when the Padres visit Los Angeles.
Pete Crow-Armstrong Putting a Bow on His Ridiculous Year
Crow-Armstrong is having one of the best seasons of the century. There is no single eye-popping stat like Barry Bonds’s .609 on-base percentage, Ronald Acuña Jr.’s 73 stolen bases, or Aaron Judge’s 62 home runs, but PCA’s season has stretched the imagination of what a center fielder can be.
Crow-Armstrong plays with such overwhelming physicality that the term “five-tool player” actually applies. He’s about to have a 45-plus-homer season with 40-plus steals while playing the best outfield defense in the majors and getting on base at one of the highest rates. His 10.4 WAR ranks among the greatest individual seasons of the 21st century, placing him on a leaderboard populated almost exclusively by Bonds, Judge, Alex Rodriguez, Mookie Betts, Bobby Witt Jr., and Mike Trout.
Crow-Armstrong has already sewn up the NL MVP award, but he’s still worth watching as he produces electric baseball nightly. And right now, he’s trying to help secure the Cubs a wild-card series at Wrigley Field. He is the ultimate must-watch player entering the 2026 playoffs.
The Three True Outcomes of Kyle Schwarber’s Historic Season
Schwarber enters the final nine games of the regular season with 212 strikeouts, placing him uncomfortably close to a record that no hitter wants. Mark Reynolds set the single-season high-water mark with 223 strikeouts in 2009, meaning Schwarber can strike out only 10 more times if he wants to avoid ignominy. Given that Schwarber has averaged nearly one and a half strikeouts per game, avoiding history may require an abrupt change to his approach at the plate.
But why should Schwarber change anything? Despite all the empty swings, Schwarber has remained tremendously productive. He leads the majors with 45 home runs, owns an .870 OPS, and has once again turned the three-true-outcomes philosophy into an entire offensive identity.
There is competition for the strikeout title, too. White Sox slugger Colson Montgomery sits just one K behind Schwarber, creating an accidental race that both players would love to lose. As the Phillies fight for playoff position and Schwarber tries to hold off Crow-Armstrong for the home run crown, every swing will carry two completely opposite historical possibilities.
The Health of Baseball’s Two Biggest Stars
Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani have defined the 2020s more than any other baseball players. And unfortunately, neither is healthy at the moment. Ohtani hit the injured list on Sept. 8 with three different injuries—biceps, knee, and neck—and the Dodgers have already said that he will not pitch again in 2026, instead focusing entirely on his role as designated hitter. Ohtani has begun a hitting progression during his rehab, but it’s now a race against the clock to have him ready to face playoff pitching when the Dodgers begin their hunt for a three-peat on October 3 in the NLDS. Even if he does return before the end of the regular season, how many tune-up ABs will he get? If he’s not 100 percent at the plate, can the Dodgers win with less production from him, given all the holes in their lineup right now?
As for Judge, he’s played in only 66 games this season. New York nursed his return from a stress fracture in his rib with the idea that he’d be back in time to get in rhythm for the playoffs. Everything was going according to plan when Judge returned on September 8, but Judge left Wednesday’s game against Minnesota early with lower leg tightness. It’s unlikely the injuries are connected, but any injury that Judge suffers between now and the start of the playoffs is scary for the Yankees’ prospects.
Judge and Ohtani are the two most recognizable players in baseball, starring for two of the biggest franchises. They are also essential for their teams’ quests to return to the World Series. Judge finally had a super productive playoffs last October, even as the Yankees faltered in the ALDS against Toronto. The Yankees pitching has carried them while he’s been out, but his absence leaves a gaping hole in the AL’s best offense on paper.
