When you have broken records once thought to be unbreakable, won championships on every team you’ve ever played on, and built a legacy that will stand as one of the most decorated in professional sports history, it can be tough to know where else to go from there. But LeBron James appears ready to figure that out on his own terms. On Tuesday morning, James and his representation informed the Los Angeles Lakers that he would not be returning to the team and instead will explore unrestricted free agency to determine how he’ll spend his record 24th season in the NBA.
His decision will invariably create shock waves across the league, but maybe just as crucially, it’ll give the world a glimpse into what the King values most at this stage in his life. Is it the best chance at a championship, wherein a fifth ring would tie him with the likes of Kobe Bryant, Magic Johnson, and Tim Duncan? Is it a chance to team up with the only other player of his generation who is arguably as influential to the modern game? Or is it simply the opportunity for a storybook ending that few sports legends have actually lived out on their own accord?
It’s all in play. The greatest player of his generation will soon make a decision that could be the true bookend to one of the most compelling eras in sports history. Let’s lay out some possibilities. —Danny Chau
Golden State Warriors
What’s the case for choosing Golden State?
LeBron ending his career beside Stephen Curry would generally be received as the most poetic capper imaginable—like Larry Bird and Magic Johnson riding off into the sunset on the same side. On a Warriors team that would still sit well below the Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs, and a couple of others in the Western Conference, James would elude any “ring chaser” criticism. Instead, he’d be climbing into a situation that actually needs and wants everything his soon-to-be 42-year-old self has to offer. There’s a decent chance James would sign for only the taxpayer mid-level exception—less than half what he’d earn from a team that has the full mid-level available—but at this stage in his career, money should probably take a back seat to whatever lets James end his career in the most ideal basketball situation.
How much do the Warriors need him?
The Warriors are desperately clinging to their incredibly successful recent history, and, having exhausted so many other options without entirely mortgaging their future, paying James $6.1 million would be a coup. Part of LeBron’s greatness lies in his portability. His game makes sense just about anywhere, beside anyone, plugged into almost any system. He can be the point guard, he can be the center, he can score in transition, he can overwhelm smaller defenders in the paint. With basketball geniuses like Curry, Draymond Green, and, eventually, Jimmy Butler, Golden State would have the skill, experience, and brainpower to hang with any team in a seven-game series.
What’s their hypothetical ceiling?
Beating any team in a seven-game series is cool. Unfortunately, the rigors of an 82-game season would not be Golden State’s friend, which affects playoff seeding, homecourt advantage, and other variables decided by six months’ worth of games. Would they even be a lock to finish in the top six? If not, they could end up staring down an impossible gauntlet. And even if they somehow make the playoffs at full strength, sustaining their collective health for two or three rounds would be, in a word, difficult. Did I mention that this team is old? —Michael Pina
Cleveland Cavaliers
What’s the case for choosing Cleveland?
This is where it all started; this is where it should end. If this is it—and if the serenity that LeBron appears enshrouded in is any indication—this last run isn’t about records left to break or championships not won. It’s about the story he’s been writing for the past 25 years and how he wants to be remembered. Cleveland is the one place where he would be universally celebrated for his contributions, both past and present. And that would be true whether the Cavs exceed or fail to meet expectations after his return. There is real symbolic weight to retiring and being remembered as a Cleveland Cavalier, and no real downside, given how little he has left to prove. If we’re seeing the last of LeBron James on the court, it has to be in Cleveland.
How much do the Cavs need him?
Well, the Cavs need something. LeBron wouldn’t exactly solve Cleveland’s size concerns in the frontcourt, especially if it’d mean sending away Jarrett Allen in a sign-and-trade scenario. But he has had some of the best success of his career playing next to a dynamic scoring guard. How about two in Donovan Mitchell and James Harden?
What’s their hypothetical ceiling?
Analytically? Maybe the galvanizing effect of LeBron's farewell tour would be enough to help the Cavs squeeze their way through to the Finals in a suddenly crowded Eastern Conference. In these past playoffs, James showed that he can still dominate a series with his mind. The Cavs should sleepwalk into the postseason on the backs of the Mitchell-Harden offense, but James’s accumulated wisdom and experience in attacking four straight best-of-seven series might be what gets two playoff-cursed stars across the finish line. Wouldn’t that be a perfect ending? —Chau
Miami Heat
What’s the case for choosing Miami?
Among many things, LeBron is a storyteller—and taking his talents to South Beach once again would make for an incredible story. The Heat can blend a version of the Warriors’ nostalgia play with legitimate basketball appeal. Next to Giannis and Bam Adebayo, LeBron would be empowered as a playmaker in jumbo lineups that could cover for him on the defensive end. He is already familiar with Erik Spoelstra, Pat Riley, and the sacred commandments of Heat Culture. And as for the sentimental factors—forming a new Big Three in Miami would evoke an obvious symmetry with the Decision in 2010, which transformed the NBA almost as much as LBJ’s on-court exploits did. Why play second fiddle to Steph in a brand-new situation when you could revisit one of the defining team-player pairings of the century? Competitive basketball, symbolic appeal, and an exit ramp out of the loaded Western Conference are awfully hard to pass up.
How much do the Heat need him?
A lot. Miami’s roster is gutted in the wake of the Giannis trade, and it is particularly devoid of playmaking and shooting. LeBron is the most gifted passer of his generation, and his evolution into a deep 3-point marksman would pair well with Antetokounmpo’s ability to get downhill and spray the ball out to the perimeter. At 41 years old, James isn’t the star he once was, but he would still slot into a starring role for the Heat.
What’s their hypothetical ceiling?
To borrow a phrase from Kirk Goldsberry, the Antetokounmpo trade made the Heat contenders to be contenders. Adding LeBron would give them a puncher’s chance of competing at the top of the East. They would be particularly reliant on their stars’ health—LeBron didn’t play more than 71 games in any of his seasons in L.A., and Giannis has suffered a concerning string of leg injuries. But the Heat’s overall talent, size, and problem-solving would make them an intriguing counterbalance to the other best teams in their conference. —Isaac Levy-Rubinett
