It took about 200 days of being kicked down the road for a jagged piece of granodiorite found by a Portland thrift shop owner to become almost perfectly spherical. The act of literally kicking rocks was documented daily on social media last year—one of those innocuous balms for (or insidious causes of, depending on your vantage) scrolling-induced brain rot. Makes you wonder what a can kicked down the road might look like over a longer period of time. Would it be recognizable? Could it be salvaged?
In related news, with just hours remaining before closing time, the Milwaukee Bucks informed teams that they’re keeping franchise player Giannis Antetokounmpo past the trade deadline and will resume talks in the offseason. But unlike the case of the rock, there is no real set objective or expectation for what shape an eventual trade is meant to take—if anything, the real hope for Milwaukee is likely that there is no trade to be made at all. "They were never serious," a team executive hoping to trade for Antetokounmpo told NBA reporter Jake Fischer. Luckily for all of us, we didn’t need an anonymous source to get the picture. The Bucks’ social media account dunked on Shams Charania’s rumormongering. Giannis posted the I’m not fucking leaving meme 32 minutes after the deadline. “Legends don’t chase,” he wrote. “They attract 💯😎”
As expected, the Bucks went the prudent route of stirring up interest at the deadline, evaluating the options, and ultimately holding off until more suitors are available. It’s not that the market was barren. It’s just that, for now, the Bucks are setting the pace. According to The Athletic, specific offers were made: Golden State reportedly shot its shot with a package of Draymond Green, a since-traded Jonathan Kuminga, four first-round picks, a first-round swap, and salary-matching fodder. The Warriors were met with radio silence. So they moved on.
There will be renewed discussions come May, after the draft lottery, when teams will find out where they stand and how much predraft value they can use as leverage. The Atlanta Hawks stand out as a team with higher aspirations for next year; they could leverage the New Orleans first-rounder they control into a considerable package, if winning now is an imperative. As do the Indiana Pacers, though there is now a not-insignificant chance they won’t even be in control of their first-rounder by the end of the draft lottery. With their eyes set on next year, the Pacers made a massive gamble at the deadline by acquiring Clippers big man Ivica Zubac, with the centerpiece of their package being a 2026 first-round pick that is protected from one through four and 10 through 30. At their current record, the Pacers have a little better than a coin-flip chance (52.1 percent) of landing a top-four pick.
By June, some of the teams that sat out the Giannis deadline sweepstakes might rethink their positions. The playoffs are where expectation gets rear-ended by reality; there will be some contenders at the All-Star break that will realize how far they are from the ultimate prize come May. The Detroit Pistons have coasted atop the Eastern standings all season long, but what if there isn’t enough firepower to support the team’s second-ranked defense? The Orlando Magic had designs of becoming a titan out East but have routinely fallen flat—what if it’s finally time to break up the Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner dynamic duo? If Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs sputter in the best-of-seven format, would the front office chalk that up to inexperience, or would it revisit potential scenarios that involve trading youth and draft capital for a sure-handed superstar? The Houston Rockets know that dilemma well; it’s why they pushed some of their chips in for Kevin Durant last summer. They’ve had some tough, dispiriting losses in 2026 so far; would they go all in for Giannis if they were teetering on the precipice?
What the above phylum of possible Antetokounmpo destinations introduces to the sweepstakes is the potential for young, blue-chip stars to enter the conversation. The Bucks weren’t swayed by the Warriors’ basket of picks, but could Banchero turn their heads? Stephon Castle or Dylan Harper? Jalen Duren? A Thompson twin? Alperen Sengun? It’s been a drag of a saga, but don’t let the tedium take away from the league-shifting implications of any potential trade.
Beyond that, when the league turns the page into the 2026-27 season after the Finals, a whole fleet of first-round picks will become unlocked due to the constraints of the Stepien Rule, which stipulates that every franchise must be in possession of at least one first-round pick in the two upcoming drafts. Milwaukee is wisely waiting for as many teams to approach the negotiating table with as loaded an offer as possible. The Warriors’ offer of four presumably post-Steph first-rounders was enticing, but once the calendar rolls over into the 2026-27 campaign, teams like the Los Angeles Lakers, New York Knicks, Minnesota Timberwolves, Miami Heat, and Cleveland Cavaliers will all be able to offer more future first-rounders than they could at the deadline.
This is the phylum that we’ve been conditioned to respect most as superstar buyers—the over-leveraged teams that are ready and willing to go superstar-or-bust. And it’s the group that is most reliant on Antetokounmpo’s desires. If Antetokounmpo stays true to his declaration that he’ll never specifically demand a trade, then there’s no reason for Milwaukee to kowtow to the mega-markets. But Antetokounmpo’s player option in 2027-28 looms. He’ll want security one way or another before then, and it gives him significant leverage over the summer’s proceedings if he wants it.
Two and a half hours before the deadline, the Bucks’ social media accounts posted a yawning emoji. Yep, we’re all tired. With Giannis off the table, perhaps the Bucks could have clarified their intentions with increased efforts along the margins. Instead, all that transpired was a sole trade that sent Cole Anthony and Amir Coffey to the Phoenix Suns for Nick Richards and Nigel Hayes-Davis, with no additional draft capital added. The Bucks are currently three games out of the play-in and at least seven games ahead of the Boozehounds and Darryn/Dybantsa demons at the bottom of the Eastern Conference. That last team hanging on by a thread at the 10-seed? The Chicago Bulls, who are basically a collective of 10 guards stacked on top of one another inside a trench coat. If the Bucks are going to tank, they’re going to have to do it in earnest.
And so it begins—or maybe not. The Hawks own the rights to whichever first-round pick is more favorable between the Bucks and the Pelicans. It may be impossible for the Bucks to land the first pick, but they can still get lucky and land in the top four. In every possible timeline, that should be the most coveted outcome. But it’s hard to fight against the inertia that comes with not wanting to do wrong by their star. ESPN’s Brian Windhorst suggested that the Bucks could opt to shut Antetokounmpo down for the rest of the season; Antetokounmpo himself expressed the desire to play once his calf strain has healed. While Giannis estimated a four-to-six-week recovery timeline, the Bucks never explicitly gave an estimate. That’s not nothing. That’s plausible deniability. The Bucks owe it to themselves to fight for the best possible odds at a top-four pick; but does Giannis owe it to the Bucks to let that happen?
It’s been a whole-ass year since the Luka Doncic trade, the kind of cultural and societal phenomenon that irrevocably rewrites the expectations—hell, the social contract—within professional sports. What the Bucks are doing is the opposite of whatever happened between Rob Pelinka and Nico Harrison. The Bucks aren’t trying to operate under the cover of darkness. They want the world to know that it’s going to hurt to acquire Giannis’s services. The offer that it’ll take to pry him from Jon Horst’s cold, dead hands will scare you. And if it isn’t good enough, the Bucks will do the old-fashioned ignoring of a trade offer sent to the inbox, like a fantasy football manager who has a nine-to-five and an 8-month-old crying in the other room. At least that’s the hope for Bucks fans. No stone left unturned—especially not the one that could involve Giannis staying put after all. Again, who knows what a can could look like when it’s kicked that far down the road?
