Week 18 is where the NFL diehards are truly tested. It’s been a long season, mentally and emotionally. If you’re a fan of one of the 16 teams already eliminated, now is probably a good time to start those New Year’s resolutions. If you’re in a fantasy league that uses Week 18 and you’re wondering how your season came down to Trey Lance at quarterback, your bewilderment is justified. You should send a message to your fantasy commissioner and tell them to stop doing that.
For most fans, the focus will be obvious: Panthers-Buccaneers, Seahawks-49ers, and Ravens-Steelers. Three games with real stakes, real urgency, and real playoff consequences. Divisions will be decided. Seasons will end.
For bettors, though, those games are only part of the puzzle.
The real challenge of Week 18 is everything else. Trying to figure out who’s going to play. Which teams care and do not care.
Here are my thoughts on the entire Week 18 slate, including my favorite five bets. (All lines are from FanDuel as of Thursday morning.) Let’s start with the Saturday doubleheader.
Saturday
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (–3)
Even a win on Saturday may not be enough to get the Buccaneers into the postseason anymore. Their falloff closely mirrors Baker Mayfield’s decline, and now Tampa Bay needs a win on Saturday and a Falcons loss to the Saints on Sunday to win the division against Carolina.
At one point in the season, Mayfield ranked eighth in EPA + CPOE efficiency and had Raymond James Stadium chanting “MVP” as he pulled off a miracle scramble to convert a third-and-14 in a Week 6 win against the 49ers. Since that win, Mayfield is 33rd in the same metric out of 40 quarterbacks and one spot behind 44-year-old Philip Rivers.
The Bucs are not only 1-7 in their last eight games, but they’ve also failed to cover the spread in all eight. At what point has the market bottomed out on the Bucs to the point where they become a buy low? Is that time right now?
These teams just played each other two weeks ago in Carolina in a game that was basically even in the box score. Tampa Bay had more total yards and more first downs, but lost the game after Mayfield threw an interception on the edge of field goal range in the final minute.
So much of Carolina’s offensive success hinges on their ability to establish their running game, and that’s very difficult to do against a high-quality Bucs run defense. Tampa Bay ranks sixth in rushing success rate allowed, and Carolina’s leading rusher in the first meeting was Rico Dowdle with just 29 yards.
Tampa Bay closed –3 in Carolina two weeks ago. As bad as the Buccaneers have been, the fact that they are now the same price at home is a clear signal that this is the time to buy the dip.
Verdict: Bet Bucs –3 (–102)
Seattle Seahawks (–1.5) at San Francisco 49ers
These two offenses are trending in opposite directions entering the final week of the season, and the betting odds have taken notice. Since Week 12, the 49ers are second in EPA per play offensively while the Seahawks have drifted to 19th. The Seahawks offense has certainly been creaking lately—especially in the red zone—but I still think the difference in pressure generated on the two quarterbacks will ultimately make the difference here.
Sam Darnold has had his fair share of big-game struggles and that will be a narrative entering this game, but it’s hard to imagine a more favorable matchup for him than this Niners defense. San Francisco’s defense has allowed 89 points in the past three weeks to the Bears, Colts, and Titans. They rank 30th in pressure rate. When Darnold has crumbled in big spots, it’s come from very aggressive defenses (like the Vikings last year) or excellent pass rushes (Rams this year). The Niners are neither of those.
Brock Purdy is playing some of the best football of his career right now, but it has come in a stretch of games against some of the lowest pressure generators in the league. Chicago, Tennessee, and Indianapolis are some of the league’s worst at getting to the quarterback, and Seattle is a considerable step up in class for them.
Verdict: Bet Seahawks ML (–115)
Sunday
Colts at Texans (–10.5)
Riley Leonard is making his first NFL start on the road against the Texans defense. The Philip Rivers comeback will forever live in our hearts for the three games of drama and fun he brought us, but the Colts have opted to throw the rookie in and see what he has. Leonard came on in relief against the Jaguars last week, and he finished 18-for-29 for 145 yards and an interception. To the eye test, he wasn’t totally overmatched and he used his legs to generate a moment or two out of structure.
I know that I have been parroting Texans unders all season long, but this game has all the makings of a Week 18 over zag game. The Colts always play really fast, their defense is not healthy (Sauce Gardner did not practice on Wednesday), and you have to wonder whether the Houston defense will play with the same intensity knowing that they’re getting ready for the playoffs and don’t really need to win this game.
Then there’s also the turnover and short field risk, which is elevated because Leonard is hypothetically more prone to making mistakes than the veteran Rivers would be.
Verdict: Lean Over 39.5 (–110)
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (–3)
Tyler Shough’s Offensive Rookie of the Year candidacy hinges on both this game and the performance of Panthers rookie receiver Tetairoa McMillan on Saturday against the Bucs. Shough’s odds of winning OROY were as long as 60/1 preseason, but he’s now only a slight underdog (+150) to win the award, according to FanDuel. Shough became the starting quarterback full time in Week 9, and since then he ranks 10th out of 35 quarterbacks with at least 100 plays in efficiency.
If Shough manages to pull off this upset, that will be five straight wins for the Saints’ rookie signal caller. If you do like New Orleans in this game, you should probably just bet Shough to win OROY too.
Verdict: Pass
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (–7.5)
The Browns have played six true road games this season. Here are their results in those games:
- Lost 41-17 at Baltimore
- Lost 34-10 at Detroit
- Lost 32-13 at New England
- Lost 27-20 at New York Jets
- Won 24-10 at Las Vegas
- Lost 31-3 at Chicago
They have been blown out four times, and this has all the makings of yet another lopsided result on Sunday. As impressive as the Browns have been in front of their home fans this year (6-2 against the spread), it has not translated on their travels at all.
Cleveland already lost Quinshon Judkins for the season two weeks ago, and now may be without both Harold Fannin Jr. and David Njoku on Sunday.
The Cincinnati defense has quietly turned a corner in the second half of the season, too. After the Bengals were by far the worst defense in the NFL in the opening nine weeks of the year, Cincinnati has improved its efficiency to 18th since Week 10. Cleveland totally dominated the box score in the Week 1 matchup, even though they ended up losing the game. As the venue shifts to Southwest Ohio, I expect a considerably different result this Sunday.
Verdict: Bet Bengals –7.5 (–110)
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (–7.5)
The Packers have no incentive to win this game, as they are locked into the seventh seed in the NFC playoffs. Green Bay is already decimated by injuries on the defensive side of the ball and will be treating this like a glorified scrimmage. This market price is reacting accordingly to third-stringer Clayton Tune starting at quarterback for the Packers. Brian Flores’s Vikings defense is a tough assignment for your first Green Bay start.
It’s one thing when a team has nothing to play for. It’s another when that team almost has incentive to lose and get out as quickly as possible, so Minnesota is the only way I could ever bet this game.
Verdict: Pass
Dallas Cowboys (–3.5) at New York Giants
Dak Prescott will play on Sunday for the Cowboys as Dallas looks to finish 8-8-1 this season. This game is “meaningful to some,” as Al Michaels always says, given that the Cowboys’ preseason over/under win total was 7.5 and they currently sit on seven wins. Prescott is also clinging to the NFL passing title for 2025, just barely ahead of Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff.
The market has moved solidly toward the Giants during the week after the Cowboys opened as a five-point road favorite. The Giants still grade out as one of the worst run defenses in the NFL and two starters in their secondary (Cor’Dale Flott and Jevon Holland) didn’t practice on Wednesday, either.
It’s always a risk to lay points with the Cowboys’ awful coverage unit defensively, so maybe this also ends up as a classic Week 18 no-stakes game with a ton of high-flying offense and optional defense.
Verdict: Pass
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (–12.5)
All-Pro defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons should be able to help the Titans hold up in the run game, but the Tennessee secondary is completely decimated by injuries. The Titans’ CB1 on Sunday is expected to be Kaiir Elam, a former second-round pick whom they added after Dallas waived him early this year. Tennessee has struggled all season with giving up big plays, and even if you’re not a fan of Tyler Shough, the ease with which he carved up this depleted Titans secondary last week should stop you from betting anything on Tennessee.
Jacksonville should score at will—they rank top five in dropback EPA and success rate in the second half of the season as head coach Liam Coen continues to cook. It’s a massive matchup advantage for the Jaguars through the air.
Verdict: Bet Jaguars team total over 30.5 (–105)
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (–7.5)
Josh Allen is going to play only one snap on Sunday to preserve his streak of consecutive games played, and then it will be the Mitch Trubisky show in Orchard Park. The Bills cannot win the AFC East and they will most likely land as the 6-seed in the AFC playoffs with a potential road game at Jacksonville loading.
As for the Jets, since 2016, there have been only three individual quarterback seasons (minimum 100 attempts) with a lower EPA per dropback than Brady Cook this season.
Those three were 2024 Dorian Thompson-Robinson, 2016 rookie-year Jared Goff, and 2021 Mike Glennon (Giants). Cook is one spot ahead of Josh Rosen on a list you definitely do not want to be on.
If I thought Buffalo would play any of its skill players, I’d probably still lay the points with them here. But trying to figure out who is going to play, and when, is quite difficult at this point.
Verdict: Pass
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (–3)
The Bears do have an incentive to win this game and try to guarantee themselves at least two home games. A win for Chicago would wrap up the no. 2 seed and set up a rubber match with the Packers in the opening round of the playoffs. The market moved from Chicago –2.5 openers out to –3, and that reflects the continued support for the Bears in the market.
Chicago’s offense has steadily trended up all season long, while Detroit’s has trended down. If you want an example of the Ben Johnson effect, just take note of how much the betting market has shifted on these two teams. Detroit closed –6.5 at home in Week 2, and is now +3 on the road. That’s a seismic shift given that neither team is dealing with a significant injury.
Similar to how Kansas City did not show up in Tennessee a few weeks ago, you do have to wonder how the Lions will respond to playing their first meaningless football game in almost three years.
Verdict: Lean Bears –3
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos (–11.5)
Denver needed a Week 18 win last season to clinch a playoff berth. The Broncos benefited from a resting Kansas City to dominate that game 38-0 and book their playoff spot. Fast-forward one year later, and the Broncos have clinched the AFC West and will be the top seed in the AFC playoffs if they can beat the resting Chargers. Justin Herbert won't play in this game, so I’d be surprised if many key Chargers players are featured.
I’m at least moderately concerned for the health outlook of fill-in quarterback Trey Lance, given the state of the Chargers offensive line and the elite Denver pass rush.
As much as Denver should have no issues romping the Chargers on Sunday, there is a reason that the Broncos have won only two games by double digits all year long. You can’t trust them to win by margin. Just look at last week’s game as a perfect example of this. Facing the depleted Kansas City squad as a 13.5-point favorite, Denver was tied late in the fourth quarter before finding the winning score.
Verdict: Pass
Kansas City Chiefs (–5.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
If you’re still reading the column at this point, you really cannot expect me to have a cogent analysis of this football game. The Raiders will clinch the first pick in the 2026 NFL draft with a loss, which means they’ll probably win this game and screw it all up. Who needs a potential franchise quarterback, anyway? Travis Kelce has some wedding planning to get to.
Verdict: Pass
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (–7.5)
The Rams have been eliminated from NFC West contention, but Sean McVay says the Rams will play their starters anyway. This is an interesting switch-up from McVay, given that he decided not to play for seeding last year and rested their top players in an eventual loss to Seattle in Week 18. This season, there is a substantial difference in potential playoff opponents depending on the result of this game. If the Seahawks win on Saturday, then the Rams would need to win on Sunday to secure the 5-seed and a road trip to the lowly NFC South champion in Round 1. If the Rams find themselves in the 6-seed after a loss (or a 49ers win), then it’s a likely first-round trip to Philadelphia, who knocked them out of the playoffs last year and won on a dramatic last-second kick block in September.
McVay’s squad started each of the last two games slowly on offense; maybe he’s hoping to get the team more in sync before the playoffs. But I am dubious that McVay is actually going to play his starters for the entire game; perhaps only the first half. Arizona, meanwhile, has allowed an average of 35 points per game during their eight-game losing streak.
Verdict: Lean Rams first half –4.5
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (–10.5)
There’s a strong correlation between the situation in the Denver game and the potential load management of the Patriots in this game. The Broncos host the Chargers, who have nothing to play for and have already clinched, during the same time slot as the Patriots. If the Broncos are considerably ahead in that game, then the Patriots are blocked from the top seed in the AFC and don’t really have a reason to keep Drake Maye and other key starters in this game.
However, if the Chargers somehow keep the game close, it’s a good stress test to see how Mike Vrabel will handle his star sophomore quarterback. Maye is also on the verge of the MVP (–340 at FanDuel), but all of this uncertainty about playing time makes this matchup a potential live betting game.
Verdict: Pass
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (–3.5)
The Eagles are expected to rest most of their key starters, including Jalen Hurts, on Sunday. I’m not going to go all WIP brain and make the outlandish case that the offense runs better with Tanner McKee, but the Eagles had no issues winning in Week 18 last year with McKee as the starter. The offense used more play-action, passed over the middle of the field more, and beat the Giants 20-13. The Eagles can still jump up to the no. 2 seed if they win and the Bears lose, but the most likely scenario is that Philadelphia is the 3-seed and hosts either the Rams or 49ers next weekend.
If the Eagles decide to play defensive stars Quinyon Mitchell and Jalen Carter, this spread is certainly too low.
Verdict: Lean Eagles –3.5 (–110)
Baltimore Ravens (–3.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Without D.K. Metcalf and Darnell Washington, the Steelers’ cupboard of receiving options is bare. A receiving group that features Scotty Miller, Marques Valdes-Scantling, Adam Thielen, and even tight end Jonnu Smith is roughly five years outdated. It would be easy to write off Pittsburgh (again) after the Steelers turned in an absolute clunker with the division on the line in a difficult road spot at Cleveland. But I think the market has overreacted and moved too far toward Baltimore here. The Steelers are hardly the first team to struggle offensively at Cleveland this year, and the market jumped across the key number of three as a result of the Ravens’ dominant win in Green Bay and that Steelers result.
I’m not saying Pittsburgh is the better team, but the Steelers did have an efficient and explosive offensive performance in Baltimore in the first meeting between these two teams. Aaron Rodgers was consistently able to push the ball down the field, as the Ravens pass rush continued to struggle. The Ravens rank 24th in pressure rate this season, which should provide a real reprieve for Rodgers. For as much as the Ravens’ offensive woes have received criticism, this Ravens defense has also allowed the second-most plays of 20-plus yards.
Verdict: Bet Steelers +3.5 (–110)
Favorite Five (37-43):
Buccaneers –3 (–102)
Seahawks ML (–120)
Steelers +3.5 (–110)
Bengals –7.5 (–110)
Jaguars team total over 30.5 (–110)
