Welcome to The Ringer's quarterback notebook, where I’ll cover the past week in NFL quarterbacking—from the most interesting passers, plays, and story lines, to some other stuff that caught my eye watching film. In this week’s notebook, we’ll be dissecting the case against Matthew Stafford’s MVP candidacy, examining what makes Drake Maye so much fun to watch, and more. Let’s talk quarterbacks.
The case against the case against Matthew Stafford for MVP
Matthew Stafford is still the MVP favorite after the Rams lost in Seattle on Thursday night, but the fact that L.A. has dropped out of first place in the NFC West has cast some doubt on his qualifications for the award. Based on historical precedent, winning your division is kind of a prerequisite for winning MVP, so finishing third in the NFC West could derail Stafford’s campaign. Only three quarterbacks have ever won the award after their teams failed to win their division: Peyton Manning in 2008, Steve McNair in 2005 (who was co-MVP with Manning) and Johnny Unitas in 1967.
I don’t know how much that argument resonates, though, given the year Stafford is having. The idea that he hasn’t won enough to deserve the award is absurd. The Rams have won 11 games and will likely end the season with 13 victories, with matchups left against Atlanta and Arizona. Since 2000, teams with the eventual MVP winners have won an average of 12.9 games, per TruMedia. Division winners have averaged under 12 over that same span, so Stafford and the Rams have won more than enough games to forgo typical voting standards.
Had Stafford played a bigger role in L.A.’s losses, the division argument would be stronger. But he leads the NFL in expected points added and yards per dropback and ranks third in success rate, per TruMedia, and no quarterback in the NFL has been better in his team’s losses this year than Stafford. That was true again in the Rams’ biggest L of the season. Stafford may have played his best game of 2025 in Seattle, dropping 457 yards and three touchdowns on one of the NFL's best pass defenses. That performance should debunk the idea that he’s been propped up by his (very good) supporting cast. Sean McVay’s play-calling, the offensive line, and Puka Nacua and Davante Adams have certainly made Stafford’s job easier, but the veteran quarterback has elevated all of those pieces around him. We saw several examples of that against the Seahawks. On this 54-yard play, he fools linebacker Ernest Jones with a no-look pass, leaving Nacua open for a long catch and run.
He got Nacua open again for an early touchdown with another no-looker—and be sure to check out Stafford’s little shimmy after the play.
You could convince me Stafford is using the Dune voice to control these defenders. Watch Julian Love, the safety to the bottom of the screen, in this next clip. Stafford turns him around with a quick head nod, which prevents Love from making a play on a deep throw to the sideline.
Here Stafford escapes pressure and makes no-look throws on the move to his left.
The misdirection slows up Ty Okada just enough to get Konata Mumpfield open for another chunk play. Stafford looks as if he’s gearing up to throw back inside before leading Mumpfield with a perfectly thrown ball.
Then Stafford capped off the night with a 41-yard touchdown to Nacua, another no-look throw on a deep in-breaker.
Most quarterbacks don’t put five plays like this on film all season. Stafford packed them all into one night. There isn’t another passer playing the position quite like this, and he’s doing it on the best offense in the league. How’s that for an MVP case?
Nobody throws a better ball than Drake Maye
There’s so much to Maye’s game that’s just awesome. The way he moves in the pocket, the way he throws with anticipation, his efficient decision-making—all the subtleties of quarterbacking that get us football nerds flustered. But by far the coolest aspect of his game is one even the most casual fan can appreciate: he just has an aesthetically pleasing way of throwing. He’s the kind of quarterback you see a few passes from and know exactly what you’re witnessing.
Maye has the big arm that all of the modern dual-threat quarterbacks possess, but he’s also got the touch and precision of the pocket passers who dominated the NFL’s last generation. It’s a rare combination that creates a sort of optical illusion when the ball leaves his hands. Maye’s able to generate touch without really altering his throw motion.
His delivery is consistent across throws, no matter how much effort they might require. He can drive a ball to a receiver running a deep in-breaker with a flick of his wrist:
Or snap off a quick pass to the perimeter, in a tight window, without adding extra oomph to the throw. This came on fourth down in crunch time:
The delivery always looks the same. That’s why he’s so remarkably accurate. Watching him throw is like watching a great 3-point shooter maintain their form no matter how tight the defense is. Maye is the Steph Curry of NFL quarterbacks. He’s not just an expert marksman—from any range—he can also create his own shot when needed.
This may come off as a hot take, but based on what I’ve seen on tape this season, I think he’s the most accurate quarterback in the NFL right now. There are a few passers who can match his touch and precision, and there are some who can generate more velocity, but nobody is throwing a more catchable ball.
The futility of Justin Herbert’s MVP hope
If they handed out MVP awards based on overcoming obstacles, Herbert would be the overwhelming favorite. He’s led the Chargers back to the playoffs for a third time in four years and still has a shot at earning the first division title of his career, all while playing behind the worst offensive line in the NFL. Herbert’s been pressured and hit more than any quarterback in the league. He’s faced quick pressure (under 2 seconds) on more dropbacks than any quarterback, per Pro Football Focus. The Chargers are last in ESPN’s pass block win rate and only the Browns have been worse in pass protection based on PFF’s grading. If that poor play weren’t bad enough, this unit might lead the league in mental mistakes. Sometimes, you can’t help but laugh.
Herbert’s been getting pummeled all season, but he just keeps showing up every week and doing stuff like this:
Herbert might be the only quarterback in the league who’s built for this particular brand of hell. His pocket movement, processing, and tolerance for punishment is a rare combination, and he needed all of that on Sunday as his line was beaten up by the Cowboys’ crappy defense. Despite being pressured on 42.4 percent of his dropbacks, per TruMedia, Herbert wasn’t sacked once and had just two throws charted as off target. He averaged 0.46 EPA per dropback when pressured, the third best mark of the week behind only Caleb Williams and Brock Purdy.
There isn’t a quarterback who’s more valuable to his team than Herbert, which is the crux of his MVP argument. And it’s a damn good one considering what the “V” in the acronym stands for. Unfortunately, that’s not how this award is typically handed out. Voters measure value by statistical production, and Herbert’s league-average numbers aren’t going to satisfy them.
There’s a world in which I’d feel more compelled to argue on Herbert’s behalf, but it feels like a worthless endeavor given what he’s about to face over the next two weeks. The Chargers get the Texans on Saturday, and Houston’s unstoppable defensive line could set records for pressure and sack rate against L.A.’s very movable offensive line. Then, if Herbert can get through that game in one piece, he’ll see a Broncos defense that pressured him on nearly 50 percent of his dropbacks in their Week 3 matchup. Herbert’s already been sacked 49 times this season; he could hit the 60 mark after those two games. So enjoy the MVP buzz while you can, Herbert fans. It may not last much longer.
The Panthers have figured out what a Bryce Young offense looks like
Young notched the biggest win of his career on Sunday, a 23-20 victory over the Buccaneers with a division lead on the line, so I figured I’d show him and the Panthers some love this week. The 2023 first-overall pick is playing solid football, and Carolina’s coaching staff has set him up for success. Those are the sorts of things other fanbases may take for granted, but it’s been awhile since they’ve happened for the Panthers—hell, probably since David Tepper bought the team in 2018.
I’ll admit I didn’t believe it was possible. Young’s size and lack of top-end physical talent felt like barriers to building a viable offense, but second-year coach Dave Canales has proven me wrong this season. And he did it using a familiar model for offenses that are led by quarterbacks of average ability: honing in on the thing they do best and maximizing their opportunities to do it. For Young, that’s throwing perimeter go balls. Only five quarterbacks have targeted go routes more often this season, per TruMedia. He’s up to 47 go-ball attempts on the season after throwing seven in the win over the Bucs. Young hit on three of them in the win, including a 22-yard touchdown pass to rookie receiver Tetairoa McMillan.
And the 34-yard pass to Jalen Coker that put Carolina in range for the game-winning field goal.
Like a lot of shorter quarterbacks, Young is more comfortable seeing and making throws outside of the numbers. Here’s a passing map of all of his “big-time throws,” via Pro Football Focus. Just two of them have been aimed inside the numbers, and only one was thrown to the intermediate part of the field.
Compare that to this map of his “turnover-worthy throws” over the past two seasons, where there’s a higher concentration of attempts to the middle of the field.
I see a lot of similarities between Young and Jalen Hurts, another quarterback who avoids the middle of the field, and how their respective offenses function around them. Both lead run-first attacks where the primary goal isn’t to set up play-action passes (which typically attack the middle of the field) but rather one-on-one matchups for receivers on the outside.
The Panthers lack the top-end talent Philadelphia has around its quarterback, so the ceiling for Young’s production is much lower. But they’ve figured out how to make Young’s skill set work for them by leaning into what he does well and avoiding what he doesn’t do so well. What a novel concept.
This Next Gen Stats passing map made me Google Malik Willis’s contract
Willis’s contract expires this offseason, if you’re wondering, and I bet a few NFL general managers were after watching Willis fill in for Jordan Love against Chicago. Packers coach Matt LaFleur wasn’t dialing up the most complex of passing concepts for Willis, but the fourth-year pro made some genuinely impressive throws. Here’s a cut-up of all 17 of his dropbacks from Saturday night:
It will be fascinating to see how the market for Willis shakes out in the offseason, assuming the Packers don’t try to sign him to a backup deal. I’d imagine Willis will be looking for an opportunity to compete for a starting job, and there should be a few teams willing to give him a shot at being a bridge quarterback with the potential to develop into a long-term option. He has a lot of rough edges in his game that need smoothing out—pocket presence and accuracy are the big ones—but he’s got a 95th-percentile arm and 99th-percentile rushing chops. He’ll also be coming off two years of development under LaFleur, who runs a version of the Shanahan offense that’s so popular across the league.
I’ll call my shot right now: in the offseason, Willis will team up with LaFleur’s old coaching buddy Mike McDaniel in Miami and will wind up starting for the Dolphins in Week 1.
The best throw I saw this week (that didn’t count)
I shrieked when I saw Dak Prescott make this throw on Sunday. And I don’t care that it was negated by a holding call, it deserves to be celebrated. Prescott is tripped up by his own left tackle—who also got flagged for the hold, by the way—and still manages to generate enough velocity to get the ball to the back of the end zone. This is the point right before Prescott releases the throw. Ryan Flournoy hasn’t cleared the defender yet.
You’re a madman, Dak.
The worst throw I saw this week
I’m still not sure what Bo Nix saw here. The Jaguars have one zone defender working underneath Courtland Sutton and one working over the top. With no receiver running to the flat, the cornerback, Jarrian Jones, can sink with Sutton’s route. I’m not in the meeting rooms with Sean Payton and Nix, but I can’t imagine the Broncos coach wants his quarterback working the single receiver side when the defense has the numbers advantage there. These are the mistakes that make it difficult to fully buy Denver as championship contenders, no matter how good the roster and coaching staff may be.
