When you bet on sports long enough, most of your gambling stories end up blending together and fading from memory. It takes a true outlier event, a stunningly bad beat or a historically improbable win, for a betting memory to become a “where were you” moment. And while most normal sports fans will forget about Daniel Carlson’s 46-yard field goal as time expired in the Raiders’ 24-17 loss to the Broncos last Sunday, I will remember and cherish that kick forever.
It was one of the most improbable betting wins of my life. I called Cousin Sal in excitement to talk about how we had just pulled off an incredible gambling heist. I’ll probably never understand why Pete Carroll chose to kick that field goal. Or why Broncos safety Brandon Jones lay on top of Raiders receiver Tyler Lockett when time was about to expire. All I know is that the Raiders lost by fewer than 7.5 points. He might not be in the job for much longer, but Sunday was the moment that Carroll truly became Las Vegas’s football coach.
Now that we’re onto Week 15, bye weeks are over. This is the final normal scheduling week of the NFL regular season. That means 16 games, a loaded Sunday slate, and, unfortunately, some very one-sided matchups on paper.
Here are my thoughts on the entire Week 15 slate, including my favorite five bets. (All lines are from FanDuel as of Thursday morning.)
The Favorite Five
I’ll be highlighting my favorite five picks each week throughout the season, which will serve as a preview for my picks on The Ringer 107—a season-long contest between The Bill Simmons Podcast, The Ringer NFL Show, The Ringer Gambling Show, and The Ringer Fantasy Football Show. I’ll be partnering with Cousin Sal to make the Gambling Show’s Friday picks. Through 14 weeks, this column is 52-54-1 overall and 33-37 on the Favorite Five.
Buffalo Bills (–1.5) at New England Patriots
Like the Broncos, the Patriots are another team with an excellent record, and the betting market continues to be skeptical about this team. It’s highly unusual that the Broncos and Pats, the top two seeds in the current AFC playoff picture, both of which have multiple game leads over everyone else in the conference, would be home underdogs in the same week. Even though the Patriots dismantled the shoddy Giants defense with a superb Drake Maye performance the last time we saw them play, I think that it’s time for Buffalo to get its revenge for their first meeting earlier this season.
Let’s start with my concerns about New England: The Patriots run defense has been slipping in recent weeks. Before Milton Williams’s injury, New England had a top five run defense in rushing success rate allowed (Weeks 1-10). Since Williams left the Jets game with an injury in Week 11, the Patriots have slipped to 28th. The post-injury sample is admittedly only three games, but there have been real cracks in the foundation that Buffalo will be looking to exploit through James Cook and the power run game.
The Patriots have also struggled in the red zone, and that’s an area where Buffalo has a definite advantage because of its ability to unleash Josh Allen as a runner. The Patriots rank 24th in red zone touchdown percentage, while Buffalo sits at ninth. Against the Bengals in Week 12, the Patriots’ red zone issues nearly cost them late in the game, and it could happen again in another high-leverage close game. Their struggles stem from their inability to consistently run the ball.
Verdict: Bet Bills moneyline (–115)
Green Bay Packers (–2.5) at Denver Broncos
The Broncos and Packers enter Week 15 with two of the league’s three best defenses when it comes to preventing explosive plays. Both defenses excel at tackling underneath and have such dominant pass rushes that it’s difficult to consistently push the ball down the field or generate yards after the catch against them. Sunday will be a battle of which offense is able to be more methodical about moving the ball down the field with consistent first downs. Green Bay has had a few puzzling offensive performances this year, but the Packers are more reliable in series conversion rate—a metric that examines how often an offense moves the chains. The Packers rank fifth, while the Broncos sit at 19th.
The Broncos defense plays a lot of man coverage, and Jordan Love has been the league’s most efficient quarterback against that type of coverage. Love tries to push the ball downfield as much as any quarterback in the NFL, too, but Denver won’t make that as easy as Chicago did last week.
Despite Denver’s impressive 11-2 record, the betting markets still don’t believe that it is a truly elite team. The Broncos are the 11th-best team based on betting market odds, which is why they are a home underdog to Green Bay (third) by nearly a field goal.
Verdict: Bet under 43.5 (–110)
Cleveland Browns at Chicago Bears (–7.5)
If you’re the kind of person who believes in trap games, there’s no better example of a bad situational spot for a team than the Bears’ home game against Cleveland on Sunday. The lowly Browns come to Chicago and catch the Bears in the middle of their Green Bay twofer. One week after a heartbreaking last-minute loss, Chicago surely has one eye on the rematch with its rival at Soldier Field next week, which could very well decide the NFC North title.
The Bears should win this game. But this is still the first time all season that they have been favored by more than a touchdown. Chicago has vastly improved from Week 1 to now, but it is not without flaws. The passing game is not consistent. The pass rush ranks 28th in pressure rate. The Bears have been the late-game darlings of the NFL this year, but winning by margin doesn’t come easily to them.
The Browns defense might not be as dominant away from home, but this remains a good matchup for their run defense, which can slow Chicago down and keep the game within a score. Chicago does have the fifth-highest rush rate, and the steady improvement and recent explosion of their run game has been the primary driver of their 9-4 record. But Cleveland ranks first in the NFL in rushing success rate allowed.
Verdict: Bet Browns +7.5 (–110)
Las Vegas Raiders at Philadelphia Eagles (–11.5)
A wise man would not be dying to jump back in to bet on the Raiders after their absolute miracle cover on Sunday. A wise man would take the money he made last week and run. But I am not a wise man. And I am not sure that this price can be justified given the current state of the Eagles offense. The Eagles have played 13 football games this season, and they have been above average in EPA per drive in only three of them. Their offense cannot consistently move the ball and is heavily reliant on explosive plays to be successful.
The Raiders defense is not good, but it is sixth best at preventing big plays. Defensive coordinator Patrick Graham likes to sit in zone defense and keep his safeties high. Last year, the Eagles would have been able to run the ball effectively and force Graham to change his looks. They have not shown that they can do that this season.
If you can stomach a bet on the Raiders and Kenny Pickett, I’d consider the under instead, but the Eagles need to prove that they can win by margin first. They’ve won one game all season by multiple scores.
Verdict: Bet Raiders +11.5 (–110)
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (–5.5)
The Chargers pulled out the win against the Eagles in dramatic fashion on Monday night, but it’s hard to feel good about how their offense looked after a clearly hampered Justin Herbert finished 12-of-26, with just 5.3 yards per attempt. Herbert’s accuracy seemed limited by his left hand injury, and while he scrambled for 66 yards to keep the offense afloat, the constant pressure on him will likely continue to affect his performance. Herbert was pressured on 63.4 percent of his dropbacks on Monday night, and he had multiple turnovers. Now, he’ll face a defense that will bring pressure as much as possible. A healthy Herbert with a nearly full-strength offensive line carved open the Chiefs defense in the first week of the season, but now they’re facing a much different challenge at a raucous Arrowhead Stadium.
It seems like the dam could break for the Chargers offense in this game. They’ve kept afloat in most games—Jacksonville in Week 12 aside—since Joe Alt got injured again. But how long can they keep sustaining the offense with turnstile offensive lineman who are allowing absurd pressure rates?
I hate to sound like a broken record in this column, but the market continues to have immense respect for the quality and pedigree of the Chiefs. The betting markets still rate the Chiefs as the best team in the AFC, even if it is highly unlikely that they’ll make the playoffs now. If you were hoping for a discount to bet Kansas City, the betting markets won’t give you one.
The path to beating the Chargers defense is committing to the run game and methodically moving the ball. I’m not sure that the Chiefs can do the first part without making this game quite slow and low scoring.
Verdict: Bet under 41.5 (–110)
Thursday Night Football
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (–4.5)
It would be easy to call this a must-win for the Buccaneers, but the reality is that their season will come down to their two matchups against Carolina in Weeks 16 and 18. The Bucs are activating wide receivers Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan from injured reserve before this game. I suspect that they are trying to ease Evans and McMillan in so that both will be ready for the more important upcoming games.
This Tampa Bay season started with a ton of promise; Baker Mayfield was rescuing a bunch of games in the final moments, but he’s been one of the worst quarterbacks in the entire league since Week 7. Some of that is certainly a result of all the injuries to the skill group and maybe even an injury to Mayfield himself, but we’re at a point where Tampa Bay is extremely vulnerable week to week. I still want to keep fading the Buccaneers until Mayfield shows the league that he can put together a consistent four-quarter performance again.
The Falcons enter this game shorthanded on offense, as wide receiver Drake London is out yet again and tight end Kyle Pitts is questionable. But schematically, this is a great matchup for Bijan Robinson in the receiving game. The Bucs love to bring pressure, but Kirk Cousins has held up well against the blitz, and the Bucs are allowing the most receiving yards in the league to running backs.
Verdict: Bet Falcons +4.5 (–110) and Bijan Robinson over 36.5 receiving yards (–110)
The Rest of the Slate
Indianapolis Colts at Seattle Seahawks (–13.5)
Look, I’m not saying that I want to bet on some combination of Philip Rivers, Riley Leonard, and Brett Rypien at quarterback on Sunday. But it’s really hard to justify the market laying this many points on Seattle. The look-ahead line was Seattle –3.5. Even with the acknowledgment that look-ahead lines don’t have high liquidity and aren’t the best barometer of the real betting market, it’s quite a drastic one-week adjustment for this spread to jump 10 points. That said, the Colts will be without their top corners, as Charvarius Ward and Sauce Gardner are out, and they’ll have to protect their quarterback of choice without right tackle Braden Smith, who is in concussion protocol.
If the Colts do start Rivers, who practiced on Wednesday, it would basically be unprecedented. The only other quarterback who’s returned from a five-year hiatus to play football was Steve DeBerg in 1998. Forty-four-year-old DeBerg rejoined the Atlanta Falcons as the backup quarterback that season and finished 9-of-17, with two turnovers and three sacks, in his lone start. Even if Rivers and head coach Shane Steichen remain close friends who talk football all the time, there has to be some learning curve if you’re walking into an NFL offense during a game week and playing on Sunday. But Rivers might still be the best option if the alternative is a physically compromised Leonard (who has a knee injury).
This is a fascinating football experiment and a compelling human interest story. I might even find myself betting the Colts on the moneyline just in case Rivers does get the start. But much like we saw with the Vikings’ Max Brosmer start against Seattle two weeks ago, there’s a ton of variance in possible outcomes, and it’s worth investing in alternate spreads, depending on whether you think Phil can still sling it.
You also have to wonder whether the Seahawks will have one eye on their critical division clash against the Rams coming up on Thursday.
Verdict: Bet on alternate spreads in either direction, depending on whether you want to hate- or nostalgia-watch Rivers
Arizona Cardinals at Houston Texans (-9.5)
Five weeks ago, the Texans season was on life support; they sat at 3-5 following a loss at home to the Broncos. Houston had just lost starting quarterback C.J. Stroud to a concussion and faced a gauntlet of an upcoming schedule. The underlying metrics always suggested that Houston was better than its record, and as it turns out, everyone—including the betting markets—was underrating the Texans. Houston has won five in a row (and covered the spread in four), beating the Jaguars, Titans, Bills, Colts, and Chiefs to surge into the heart of the AFC South race.
Given the current state of the AFC—both the Chiefs and Ravens are in grave danger of missing the playoffs altogether—how many teams in the conference are definitely better than Houston? The offensive line went from abysmal to passable. The offense is hardly consistent, but running back Woody Marks and wide receiver Nico Collins have just enough explosive spark to put some points on the board consistently. Given that Houston’s defense is the best by EPA per drive of any unit since 2021, the offense doesn’t have to score much for the Texans to be a tough team to beat in the AFC playoffs.
Could this game serve as a bit of a breakout for the Houston offense? It’s one thing to struggle on the road against playoff-caliber defenses, but we have seen that when Stroud faces a defense that doesn’t generate much pressure, the offense becomes highly efficient. Houston moved the ball up and down the field against the very injured Ravens and 49ers defenses and now gets to face another shorthanded unit this Sunday. The Cardinals rank 27th in pressure rate, so Stroud should be kept relatively clean.
I wouldn't be surprised if Houston scores more than anticipated, but I’ll pass here.
Verdict: Pass
Tennessee Titans at San Francisco 49ers (–13.5)
Only the Panthers generate pressure at a lower rate than the San Francisco 49ers. The Niners posted quality defensive showings against Carolina and Cleveland over the past two weeks, but their underlying vulnerability remains. It’s next to impossible for me to lay that many points on a defense that creates so little havoc. Even if the Titans don’t score a lot of points, they should be able to move the ball somewhat consistently in this game, bleed the clock, and stay competitive. One of Cam Ward’s biggest problems has been his sack rate. That concern is somewhat alleviated by a matchup with this San Francisco defense.
Friends usually don’t let friends bet on the Titans, but they can also prevent you from laying nearly two touchdowns on a very flawed defense.
Verdict: Lean Titans +13.5 (–110)
Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5)
The haters wrote J.J. McCarthy off this season. But last week, against the Commanders, he didn’t write back.
McCarthy had by far his best game as a professional quarterback last week and finally made the bettors who’d been blindly fading him pay up. On paper, Minnesota’s skill position players against the Dallas secondary is one of the biggest mismatches of the entire season. The Cowboys run defense may be improved, but their secondary still has serious holes that can be exploited by a capable offense.
On the other side, we’ve seen Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores get the better of plenty of great quarterbacks, but it will be difficult for him to scheme up pressure to rattle Dak Prescott. Prescott, especially at home, is elite at diagnosing defenses pre-snap. He excels against the blitz, has two elite wide receivers (when George Pickens cares), and loves to throw over the middle of the field. Flores's defenses will leave the middle open, and Prescott is sure to throw into the windows vacated by extra rushers. He ranks fourth in success rate against the blitz this season.
This has all the makings of a high-scoring matchup, if McCarthy can exploit a bad secondary.
Verdict: Lean over 47.5 (–110)
New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars (–13.5)
There are too many games with real intrigue and consequence in Week 15 for me to dive deep into a December matchup that might be started by Jets rookie QB Brady Cook. After a week of national media gushing about Trevor Lawrence, it would be very fitting if this game were close in the fourth quarter, even if it shouldn’t be.
Verdict: Pass
Carolina Panthers (–2.5) at New Orleans Saints
Tyler Shough had a ton of success in his first meeting with Carolina on the road this season, in part because the Panthers are dead last in pressure rate in the NFL. Shough threw for 282 yards on 27 attempts, and the Saints shut down the Carolina offense en route to a comfortable 17-7 win. Last week, we even saw a different dimension of the Saints rookie quarterback when he added two touchdowns with his legs. This is as friendly of a matchup as you can draw up for Shough, and I think that the Saints will be a very lively home underdog on Sunday as a result. Like the Buccaneers, the Panthers have a more important game coming up next Sunday.
While Carolina does have a rest advantage coming off the bye, it offers a pretty simple matchup for New Orleans to solve right now. If you can effectively stop the run and force Bryce Young into obvious passing downs, you can slow down the Panthers offense. New Orleans ranks 10th in rush success rate allowed, and Young is 41st out of 44 quarterbacks in EPA per dropback in obvious passing situations (third or fourth down and 6-plus yards).
Verdict: Bet Saints ML (+120)
Washington Commanders at New York Giants (–2.5)
Both teams began with varying degrees of promise but have quickly devolved as they've been infected by the injury bug. Jayden Daniels has more notable injuries than wins this season, and this hollowed-out version of the Giants offense without running back Cam Skattebo and wide receiver Malik Nabers is lacking any juice.
There is a case to be made right now that Marcus Mariota is running the Commanders offense better than Daniels was and that their run game should be able to move the ball against the porous Giants run defense. Even when teams have nothing to play for, you would expect the Commanders to respond after their absolute shellacking in Minnesota last week. Teams are 97-68-4 all time against the spread (59 percent) following a loss of 30-plus points, per Action Network.
Verdict: Lean Commanders +2.5, bet at +3
Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
These two teams played on Thanksgiving, and the Ravens closed as a 7.5-point favorite. The Bengals ended up winning comfortably in Baltimore, and both teams lost close coin-flip games last week. The question you have to answer now is whether it makes sense for oddsmakers to downgrade the Ravens by two or three points.
Given the current state of both Lamar Jackson and the Ravens pass rush, I think that the adjustment is correct. The Ravens were completely unable to pressure Aaron Rodgers effectively last week, and the Steelers had five plays of 20-plus yards. In the 12 weeks before that game, the Steelers offense had 30 total.
Until we see a healthier and more mobile version of Jackson, it’ll be hard to bet money on the Ravens. However, there’s a way to target Cincinnati’s awful tight end coverage by betting on the Ravens’ three tight ends—Isaiah Likely, Mark Andrews, and even Charlie Kolar—in the prop markets. Baltimore and Likely will be out to right a wrong after he fumbled while running into the end zone in that crucial Thanksgiving-night first half.
Verdict: Pass the game, but bet Likely to score a touchdown (+260)
Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Rams (–5.5)
The Rams’ slipup against the Panthers on the road two weeks ago was more a product of some poor plays by Matthew Stafford than an indication of true flaws within the roster. Stafford and his offense proved that when they pummeled the Cardinals last week, and the betting market now sees the Rams as the best team in the NFL. The Lions still have a quality run defense that can slow down the emerging one-two punch of running backs Kyren Williams and Blake Corum, but the Lions’ problems in this matchup are in the secondary. We know that Detroit likes to play a lot of man coverage, and the Rams rank third in the NFL in EPA per dropback against man coverage. The Packers and Cowboys are both in the top six in the same metric, and they just combined to score 61 points in two games against Kelvin Sheppard’s defense.
I’m not really sure what the Lions’ path is to get any real stops in this game, unless Stafford throws the ball to the other team a couple of times. I’d be tempted to play the over, assuming the Lions get extremely pass heavy while they’re trailing, but this total is 54.5 for a reason.
If I had to bet this, I’d lay the points with the Rams. But I don’t have to, so it’s just a lean to their side for me.
Verdict: Lean Rams –5.5 (–110)
Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers (–3.5)
Mike Tomlin needs only two more victories to secure yet another winning season in Pittsburgh, and this is a prime opportunity for him to move one step closer. Aaron Rodgers had one of his best games of the season last week and completed four passes of 20 yards or more.
The Steelers had an uncharacteristically explosive showing last week, but both of these offenses love to use the short pass underneath to move the football consistently and methodically. Rodgers and Tua Tagovailoa are in the bottom six among QBs this year in average depth of target, yet it’s Pittsburgh whose defense is considerably better at defending against these types of passes.
The Steelers rank 14th in EPA per dropback allowed on passes within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage, while the Dolphins are way down at 28th. If this becomes a dink-and-dunk battle, I may trust the schematic chops of Mike McDaniel more, but I favor the talent and production of the Steelers. At 3.5, I’d lean with Miami, but not enough to bet on it.
Verdict: Lean Dolphins +3.5 (–105)
The Favorite Five
Bills ML (-115)
Raiders +11.5 (–110)
Browns +7.5 (–110)
Chargers-Chiefs under 41.5 (–110)
Packers-Broncos under 43.5 (º110)
Other Bets
Saints ML (+120)
Falcons +4.5 (–110)
Isaiah Likely to score +275
