Every week this NFL season, we will break down the highs and lows—and everything in between—from the most recent slate of pro football. This week, a prime-time game finally delivered the drama, the Panthers pulled off a massive upset to shake up the NFC playoff race, the Texans surged past the Colts, Max Brosmer had a very unfortunate NFL debut, and more. Welcome to Winners and Losers.
Winners: Bryce Young and Dave Canales
Double-digit underdogs are now 2-14 in 2025, and the winners in both of those games have been the Panthers, who knocked off the Rams on Sunday in one of the biggest upsets of the season. Carolina was outgained and gave up 7.4 yards per play to Matthew Stafford’s Rams, but won the turnover battle 3-0 and controlled the clock with over 35 minutes of possession. Head coach Dave Canales’s strategy was to shorten the game and essentially turn the contest into a series of dice rolls. It worked. The Rams got only three drives in the second half. They went three-and-out on their opening possession of the third quarter, scored a touchdown on their second, and their third ended with a Stafford sack-fumble just before the two-minute warning. The Panthers killed the clock and ran off with a 31-28 win.
The turnovers won Carolina the game, but with Los Angeles scoring on almost every other drive—the Panthers forced only one punt all game—the Panthers’ offense also played a big role in the outcome. Bryce Young’s clutch play ended up making the difference. He was unproductive and inefficient on early downs, but saved his best for high-leverage situations on third and fourth downs.
Bryce Young, Week 13 vs. Los Angeles (TruMedia)
Young threw two of his three touchdowns on fourth down, including the game-winner to Tetairoa McMillan on fourth-and-2. Carolina’s offensive line held up admirably against L.A.’s havoc-wreaking pass rush, and Young took advantage of the extra time in the pocket. On the game-winner, he got through his full progression without finding an open receiver, but McMillan broke open late in the play and Young lofted it up and over the defender in a trail position.
Earlier in the game, Young hit Jalen Coker deep down the right sideline for his other fourth-down touchdown, and also found Coker over the middle for the third-down conversion that clinched the game. On the latter play, the window was wide open thanks to a botched coverage, but Young delivered an accurate throw with good timing.
Young didn’t really push the ball downfield outside of those three plays on a wet and windy day in Charlotte. Canales preferred a schemed-up approach in the passing game with screens and quick passes to the flat.
Canales cooked up Young’s first touchdown with a swing screen to Chuba Hubbard.
No matter how this season ends for Young, who is playing to get his fifth-year option picked up, Canales has earned himself another season in Carolina. He hasn’t turned Young into a star, but he’s helped the former no. 1 pick get to the point where he can turn in this kind of performance every so often. Most impressively, Canales has gotten a mediocre Panthers roster to 7-6 and within a game of the Buccaneers for first place in the NFC South, with Tampa Bay coming to Charlotte in three weeks. It’s been seven years since this team has had something to play for so late in the season. That ought to be good for a few Coach of the Year votes on its own.
A division title may be in the realistic range of outcomes, but it’s still not the most likely outcome. The truth is, this Panthers team isn’t nearly as good as its record—or Sunday’s result against one of the league’s best teams—implies. They’ve been outscored by 50 points this season. Only nine teams have a worse point differential, per TruMedia. They also rank in the bottom 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The win over the Rams was impressive, but this is the same Panthers team that got throttled by the 49ers last Monday night and is just three weeks removed from a double-digit home loss to a dreadful Saints team. None of that will matter if Carolina finishes strong in its last four after next week’s bye.
The Panthers may have to go 3-1 to have a shot at making the playoffs. They’ll likely be underdogs in each of their last three games, but Canales and Young seem to be at their best when expectations are low.
Winner: The Bears
The Bears didn’t play Sunday but may have been the day’s biggest winner. They entered Thanksgiving week just hoping to keep up in the NFC playoff race. But they won a tough road game against the Eagles on Friday to move to 9-3, and by late Sunday afternoon, the Bears were leading the entire conference thanks to Carolina’s win over the Rams. Chicago has the edge over Los Angeles (also 9-3) right now because of a better conference record, while the Rams have a head-to-head win over 9-3 Seattle.
With no head-to-head matchups between the Rams and Bears, homefield advantage in the NFC could come down to conference record, where the Rams have to make up some ground after letting the Panthers game slip away.
With five in-conference games remaining, the Rams have time, but they can’t afford to blow any more opportunities like they did on Sunday. I’d still back Los Angeles as the favorites in the NFC even after the loss to Carolina. It’s not a result that should alter our perception of this team. Stafford’s three turnovers cost the team the win, but outside of those three bad plays, the offense was as productive as it had been all season. Even when including the turnovers, it was still an impressive performance for Sean McVay’s team. It was a 98th-percentile game by success rate, 96th percentile by yards per play, 88th percentile by points per drive, and 74th percentile in expected points added per play, according to TruMedia. The Rams averaged over 7 yards per carry on the ground, and their 71.4 percent success rate was tied for the highest mark in a game this season. Stafford averaged 8.7 yards per attempt. The Rams are going to be just fine.
But Los Angeles did give its chief rivals for the top seed a wider margin for error going forward. The Bears are going to need it with a difficult schedule to close out the regular season. They’ll play the Packers twice in the next three weeks and finish with games against two playoff contenders in San Francisco and Detroit. The Week 15 Browns game might be the only game in which Chicago is favored. Only four teams have a tougher strength of schedule over the final month of the season, which explains why the Bears currently have just a 7 percent chance of earning home-field advantage, per The Athletic's Playoff Predictor.
Probability of winning the NFC (The Athletic)
Ben Johnson’s team has the inside track to the no. 1 seed in the NFC, but it will need its “good” to get “better” and better to get “best” if it’s going to hang on.
Winner: Sunday Night Football Viewers
It has been nearly two months since we’ve seen a competitive game on the NFL’s flagship broadcast. The last Sunday Night Football game decided by fewer than eight points was way back in Week 6. The drought is over, thanks to the Broncos and Commanders, who gave us a wild overtime affair that came down to a failed two-point try. Denver’s Nik Bonitto swatted Marcus Mariota’s throw out of the air and secured his team’s 10th win of the season.
The game was entertaining, but it wasn’t well played on either side. Denver QB Bo Nix treated the national audience to the signature Bo Nix Experience. There were a handful of highlights, including this incredible touchdown throw to Courtland Sutton:
But every time Cris Collinsworth started to question the un-Bo-lievers, Nix would turn around and prove the haters right. A beer league softball player could have picked Nix off here:
Bobby Wagner barely budged and Nix hit him right between the numbers for the interception.
Nix played a relatively clean game outside of that brutal mistake. There were some wayward passes to open receivers, but he took only one sack (though it was a costly one on a third down late in the fourth quarter) and protected the football. That was enough for Denver’s defense, which had turned in another solid effort before Mariota nearly pulled off a miraculous comeback while fighting his own inner bozo. Mariota nearly cost Washington a chance for a game-tying field goal when he kept this QB draw RPO and was nearly brought down inbounds with just 12 seconds remaining—and the Commanders out of timeouts. Mariota’s miracle escape from what looked like a sure sack led to a defensive pass interference call on Talanoa Hufanga, which wiped out a game-ending interception.
But Mariota came up clutch in overtime with a third-and-14 conversion on a long pass to Deebo Samuel after he had a long touchdown pass to Terry McLaurin wiped out by a 50-50 holding call.
Mariota eventually found McLaurin for a touchdown a few plays later, but couldn’t connect on the ensuing two-point try for the win. (It’s worth noting that RB Jeremy McNichols was wide open, if only Mariota had been able to loft the pass over Bonitto to him.) Mariota’s first touchdown of the game came on one of the best catches of the season, as Treylon Burks pulled off a convincing Odell Beckham Jr. impersonation on this one-handed snag in the back corner of the end zone.
Washington put up a good fight in a losing effort and gave us a nightcap worth watching. With a rising Texans team taking on the desperate Chiefs next Sunday, we may not have to wait too long for the next one.
Winner: The Dramatic AFC South
The NFL’s least interesting division for the last, I don’t know, 15 years, is now demanding our attention. On Sunday, the Texans went into Indianapolis and beat the Colts 20-16 and the Jaguars snuffed out a Titans team that’s already planning its offseason vacations. Those results created a logjam at the top of the standings, and with five weeks left, the AFC South is the league’s most competitive division.
The Jaguars are in first place, the Colts have the division’s best point differential, but the Texans have to be considered the favorites here, right? Just based on past winning experience alone? The Colts and Jaguars are not to be trusted. They have quarterbacks with terrifying turnover tendencies, play-calling head coaches with dicey moments at the end of games, and defenses with a ceiling of “fine.” The Texans, meanwhile, have the division’s best quarterback, the best coach, and an elite defense. I’m not in the business of giving betting advice, but the Texans are +350 to win the division. That should be getting hammered. Houston has the easiest schedule down the stretch, per Tankathon, and the Jags and Colts still have two games against one another while the Texans’ last remaining divisional game is at home against Indy.
I think I’m ready to give up on the Colts after these last two weeks. It’s hard to get the thought of Shane Steichen going into a shell against Kansas City out of my head. Then we found out last week that Daniel Jones is playing with a freaking leg fracture. And now cornerback Sauce Gardner, the team’s big trade-deadline acquisition, will be out at least a few weeks after leaving Sunday’s loss with a calf injury.
Against Houston, Indianapolis needed to get more out of Jonathan Taylor, who ran for 85 yards on 21 attempts and didn’t have a single run go for more than 15 yards. He’s had only four such runs over the last month of games and just one in the last two weeks, per TruMedia. He had 15 over the first 10 games of the season.
Houston still has its issues—the run game is horrible and the offensive line is leaky—but the offense should get a major boost with C.J. Stroud returning from a concussion and putting an end to the nonsensical QB controversy talk. Davis Mills strung together a few wins against bad teams, but Stroud has been the better quarterback by both the numbers and eye test.
Stroud vs. Mills, 2025 season (TruMedia)
Stroud has quietly been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the league after a slow start to the season. He ranks fifth in EPA per dropback since Week 4, per TruMedia. He falls to 13th in success rate and yards per dropback, so Stroud is still seeking consistency in the passing game but he’s throwing the ball well. After knocking off the rust against the Colts with a bad pick early in the second quarter, Stroud averaged 0.33 EPA and 7.3 yards per dropback. His postgame assessment of the performance was spot on.
The Texans still can’t run worth a damn, but Stroud and Nico Collins give the offense a fighting chance, and the defense can take care of the rest.
Loser: Mike Tomlin
Sunday’s game could not have gotten off to a more Steelers-ish start. That’s not a compliment. Buffalo and Pittsburgh played 30 minutes of sloppy-ass football; the Steelers defense forced two turnovers, and used the short field off one of those Bills’ mistakes to score the half’s only touchdown. When the Steelers do pull off an upset, that’s the general blueprint; they muck up the game and wait for the other team to make game-losing miscues. Buffalo made their mistakes early, with Josh Allen throwing a pick, which slammed the brakes on a promising opening drive. A fumble by running back James Cook gave Pittsburgh's offense the short field it needed to find the end zone.
The Steelers came out of the second quarter with a 7-3 lead on the scoreboard and a 2-0 advantage in the turnover battle. It all fell apart in about five minutes of game time in the third quarter. Aaron Rodgers got decked from behind, coughed up the ball, and watched Bills cornerback Christian Benford return it for six. Rodgers ambled back to the sideline with a bloody nose and an injured left hand that kept him out of the game long enough for Mason Rudolph to throw a duck directly to Benford’s chest. Pittsburgh’s lead and the turnover advantage were gone, and that was that. An Allen touchdown pass gave the Bills a 16-7 lead that felt insurmountable even with Rodgers dragging himself back onto the field, even as he bled through the bandage on the bridge of his nose. By late in the game, a constant stream of boos had evolved into a “Fire Tomlin” chant.
I’ll give Rodgers credit for gritting it out in the second half, but he did not want to be there. You can see the apathy in his Next Gen Stats passing map.
Rodgers completed just 48 percent of his passes despite a low average depth of target (4.4 yards) and pressure rate (23 percent). He lost an average of 0.46 EPA per dropback and 83 percent of his yardage came after the catch. Rodgers called it a “boo-worthy performance” so at least he’s self-aware.
The defense also deserved some boos in the second half. The Bills were missing their two starting offensive tackles and had a center battling through an elbow injury and they still bullied the Steelers in the trenches. Cook ran for 144 yards on 32 carries, and Allen went for 38 yards on his four designed rushes—including Allen’s record-breaking touchdown run late in the game. A bummed out T.J. Watt said after the game that he’d never seen an opponent run the same play over and over without fail.
The play was good old-fashioned “Duo,” a downhill run concept consisting of double teams across the blocking front. Per Pro Football Focus, the Bills ran Duo 19 times and had a success rate of 57.9 percent. Only two teams have had more attempts of one run concept in a single game this season. Buffalo had the highest success rate of any of the top-10 games, so Watt wasn’t exaggerating.
The loss dropped the Steelers out of first place in the AFC North, and they’ve got the Ravens in Baltimore next week in what could be the beginning of the end for Rodgers and Tomlin in Pittsburgh if the fans get their way. The Steelers opened up as 6.5-point dogs in that division contest. Their 41-year-old quarterback is (literally) battered and bruised.
Even the defense, which has been the bedrock of the Tomlin model the past few years, is getting punked on a regular basis. The vibes are horrendous right now and could get a lot worse over the last month.
Winner: J.J. McCarthy’s Reputation
McCarthy missed Sunday’s game in Seattle because of a concussion, and was on the sideline in street clothes with a clipboard in his hands as he watched Max Brosmer’s sacrificial NFL debut. The undrafted rookie backup threw four interceptions in what was statistically the worst game of the season for any quarterback by total EPA, per TruMedia. It was the third worst on a per dropback basis. Only Jake Browning’s Week 3 game for Cincinnati in Minnesota and Tua Tagovailoa’s depressing Week 7 clunker for Miami in Cleveland were worse. But neither of those games had a play as laughably inept as Brosmer’s falling, underhanded interception that was returned for a touchdown.
What the hell was Brosmer thinking?! How did he envision that play ending? I get that it was fourth down, so even a desperate heave is more preferable to a sack, but he threw directly into the teeth of the coverage, with a clear path for the defender to race to the end zone. Look, McCarthy has stunk it up, but he’s never done something that egregiously bad. At least not yet.
That we’re using an undrafted rookie as a measuring stick for a top-10 pick in his second year tells you everything you need to know about how McCarthy’s season is going, but Brosmer’s exceptional stinker does shed a more positive light on McCarthy’s recent performances. The Vikings’ offensive situation may not be as nurturing as it appears on paper. Brosmer was bad all on his own but also had three of his passes dropped and was pressured on 33 percent of his dropbacks. He didn’t get any support from the run game, either. Aaron Jones didn’t have a single successful run on Sunday. His backup, Jordan Mason, had just two. Not many quarterbacks would have succeeded in that sort of environment against one of the best defenses in the NFL.
Perhaps McCarthy would have performed even worse than Brosmer did in Seattle. That we didn’t get a chance to find out is enough to make McCarthy a winner. It was certainly the most enjoyable Sunday he’s had since returning from a high ankle sprain in early November. After all, it was the first time he went a week without throwing an interception since his return.
Loser: QB Sneaks
Has the QB sneak been figured out? Eh, probably not, but it sure felt like it in Week 13. Only 10 of the 16 sneaks teams ran this week went for a first down, per TruMedia. That’s a 62.5 percent success rate, the fifth lowest of any week in the past five seasons. The three fumbles on sneaks were the most in a single week over the same span. Even the league’s best practitioners of the play had trouble. Jalen Hurts had the ball ripped from him in a tush push scrum in Philadelphia’s 24-15 loss to Chicago on Friday.
The Colts now have to run their sneaks with rookie tight end Tyler Warren in order to protect Jones, who had been a perfect 12-for-12 on sneaks before his leg injury. Warren fumbled away his first sneak attempt of the season on Sunday against the Texans. Another rookie tight end, Cleveland’s Harold Fannin, also fumbled on a sneak attempt in the Browns’ 26-8 loss to the 49ers. Texans tight end Cade Stover was stuffed on back-to-back sneak attempts on third and fourth down. And Saints QB Tyler Shough ran into a brick wall in the final minute of Saints-Dolphins, sealing a 21-17 win for Miami.
Maybe the sneak is no longer the cheat code it once was. The success rate has dropped to a five-year low in 2025, per TruMedia. But with a 75.3 percent success rate in short-yardage situations, it’s still the best option for an offense in those cases. Runs by halfbacks have a success rate of 69 percent this season. But with a few more weeks like this one, we may reach an equilibrium that leads to a decline in usage before the league decides whether to ban the tush push next offseason. It was a bad week for the sneak in what’s been a rough season for the concept.
