Every week this NFL season, we will break down the highs and lows—and everything in between—from the most recent slate of pro football. On Thanksgiving Day, the Cowboys increased their playoff chances while the Chiefs hindered theirs. Toyotathon Jordan Love returned, and the NFL schedule-makers scored a big victory. Welcome to Winners and Losers.
Winner: Hope in Dallas
The Cowboys are still a longshot to make the playoffs, but after beating a desperate Chiefs team 31-28 on Thursday, they’ve forced us to take them seriously. Dallas’s postseason probability sits at just 30 percent after the win, according to The Athletic's playoff simulator. But the Cowboys have won three games in a row, including two victories over last season’s Super Bowl participants. And they have a chance to pull into a tie for the NFC’s seventh seed if Cleveland upsets San Francisco on Sunday and Dallas beats Detroit next Thursday night.
Just a month ago, this team was sitting at 3-5-1 after a loss to the Jacoby Brissett-led Cardinals. But less than 24 hours after they seemingly hit rock bottom, they turned their season around. The day after the Arizona loss, the Cowboys traded first- and second-round picks to the Jets for defensive tackle Quinnen Williams—a last-ditch effort to fix what had been one of the worst defenses in the NFL. At the time, it felt like an unnecessary move in a lost season, and an attempt for Jerry Jones to save face after pushing Micah Parsons out of Dallas just before the season. But the Cowboys haven’t lost since, the defense is playing good ball, and Williams is a major reason why.
Williams was the best defensive player on the field in the win over the Chiefs. He led the team in run stops (4), tied for the team lead in pressures (6), and was generally disruptive throughout the game.
Williams has been a good player since entering the league in 2019, but he’s turned it on in his time with Dallas. His pressure rate has doubled, jumping from 9.5 percent with the Jets to 22.7 percent over the last three games, and he has logged at least five pressures in each of those contests. The trade felt like an overpay at the time, but it’s looking like a clear win now. Dallas ranks 18th in expected points added allowed since the deadline, per TruMedia. That may not sound impressive, but being mediocre is a massive upgrade over where this unit had been previously.
And a mediocre defense may be enough to help this team reach the postseason given how the offense is operating. Dallas’s trade for George Pickens in May, which only cost the team a third-round pick, is looking like the steal of the offseason. Dak Prescott (and the motivation of playing in a contract year, perhaps) has unlocked the best version of the receiver—the version that causes problems for other teams rather than for his own. Pickens didn’t have a monster game against the Chiefs on Thursday, but he helped seal the win with some clutch third-down grabs.
But it was CeeDee Lamb’s turn to shine this week after a crappy outing against the Eagles. He torched the Chiefs secondary for 112 yards and a touchdown on seven receptions. And maybe most importantly, he didn’t drop a single pass after he dropped several against Philly. When Prescott, Lamb, and Pickens are cooking like this, there’s not much a defense can do to stop them. The power of the sun (and a poorly thought-out stadium design) might be the only way to slow that trio down right now.
It would be a shame for this offense to miss out on the playoffs, but a lot will have to go right for Dallas to make it there, starting with a win over the Lions next week. From there, they get a Vikings team that has a dire quarterback situation and a declining Chargers team before they close out the season with divisional road games against Washington and New York. The Cowboys may have to win out, and run their current win streak up to eight, to make the playoffs. But that feels possible with Williams elevating the defense to “fine.” Imagine thinking that a month ago. Jerry did—and it may have saved his team’s season.
Loser: The Chiefs’ postseason chances
Any celebration of Kansas City’s demise is premature. Yes, the loss in Dallas dropped their playoff probability to 44 percent, according to The Athletic’s model, but if the Chiefs can beat the Texans at home next Sunday, it jumps back up to 57 percent. A home win over the Chargers the following week would push it to 71 percent. The path to the playoffs gets a lot clearer if the defending AFC champs can win those two games. Here’s the rest of Kansas City’s schedule:
Week 14: Texans (home)
Week 15: Chargers (home)
Week 16: Titans (away)
Week 17: Broncos (home)
Week 18: Raiders (away)
That isn’t easy by any means, but all of their challenging games will be played at Arrowhead Stadium.
So the Chiefs aren’t dead yet, but they no longer have any margin for error. Losing to Houston or Los Angeles would drop their playoff probability to 25 percent with three games remaining. If they lose both, it would drop to below 1 percent. And that’s without factoring in the results of other games. There’s a chance that Kansas City gets mathematically eliminated before the technical start of winter (December 21). How is that possible for a team that employs Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid and Steve Spagnuolo? Even if the Chiefs do go on a run here and make the playoffs, it should have never been this difficult. This is a team that should be competing for home-field advantage in any season where Mahomes stays healthy; it should never be fighting for a wild-card spot.
But when you look at the roster, it doesn’t feel all that strange that they are. Mahomes has elevated the offense, but the weight on his shoulders is heavier than ever. Reid is treating a 30-year-old Kareem Hunt like a focal point of this unit. A 36-year-old Travis Kelce is still Mahomes’s best option on high-leverage downs. The receiving corps looks good on paper, but it doesn’t seem to make the quarterback’s job any easier in obvious passing situations. Mahomes is scrambling and playing out of structure more than he ever has—even more than he did as a first-year starter before his game matured into what it is now. Many of the offense’s best moments against Dallas came on scramble drills, including the play of the day, when Mahomes hit Xavier Worthy for 42 yards while falling to the ground after escaping a collapsing pocket.
Unfortunately for Spagnuolo, Mahomes can’t similarly bail out his defense. Spags has had to get creative to scheme around an average front and a weak secondary that was flagged for five pass interference penalties against the Cowboys. The defensive numbers are average across the board, which feels like a best-case scenario considering the talent on that side of the depth chart. You can nitpick Spags’s scheme all you want, but there isn’t enough talent on the roster to expect more than mediocre results.
That’s why this playoff chase feels so futile. Anything is possible with Mahomes—but a Super Bowl feels out of reach for this year’s team. That could be a mathematical certainty in a few weeks.
Winner: Toyotathon Jordan Love
There’s just something about great deals on Japanese cars that brings out the best in Jordan Love.
Unfortunately for Green Bay’s opponents, Toyotathon Jordan Love is back. And unfortunately for the Lions, Love also seems to enjoy playing on Thanksgiving. After a 31-24 win in Detroit, Love is now 3-0 on the holiday and has thrown nine touchdowns and no interceptions in those games. He’s also averaged 0.39 EPA per dropback with a 53.8 percent success rate, per TruMedia. It might be a hot take, but if I had to choose between the two, I’m taking Thanksgiving Love over Toyotathon Love. Thanks to the overlap, however, we don’t have to.
Love was as awesome as the numbers from Thursday’s win imply. He tossed four touchdowns and iced the game with a backfoot throw while fading away from pressure on fourth down.
That’s become a signature move for Love. It allows him to buy an extra beat of time to get a throw off before the pass rush can get home, as Lions pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson explained after the game.
Detroit pressured Love on 46.9 percent of his dropbacks but didn’t sack him once. And when the Packers kept rushers away from him, Love was nearly perfect. He completed 77.8 percent of his passes (with an average depth of target of 12.1 yards!) without pressure, per TruMedia. All four of his touchdowns were thrown from a clean pocket, including this 51-yard shot to Christian Watson.
A game like that on the national stage puts Love squarely in the MVP race. He’s tied with Drake Maye for the league lead in EPA per dropback. Matthew Stafford, who’s got an absurd 30-to-2 touchdown to interception ratio and plays for the best team in the league, is the clear leader and Maye looks like his strongest challenger. But if the Packers run the table and either of those two slip up, Love could be another strong Toyotathon (deals run through January 5th!) away from the award.
Loser: Dan Campbell’s fourth-down luck
Packers-Lions was ultimately decided on fourth down. The Packers converted their biggest fourth-down gambles of the game, and the Lions failed on theirs. While Matt LaFleur was celebrated for his gutsy decisions—going for a fourth-and-1 in the red zone in the second quarter (and scoring a touchdown on the play), and converting a fourth-and-3 to seal the game late—Dan Campbell caught shit for his choice to go for it when the Lions trailed by 10 in the fourth quarter and a field goal would have cut the lead to one possession. Detroit was able to get Jameson Williams open on the play, but Jared Goff’s throw was slightly behind him which led to a drop.
According to Ben Baldwin’s fourth-down decision bot, Campbell made the right call.
But Campbell doesn’t need win-probability numbers to rationalize his choice. The way the game played out did that for him. The Lions ended up losing by a touchdown. A field goal there, assuming Jake Bates makes it, wouldn’t have done them any good beyond a slightly better point differential.
Detroit went 0-for-2 on fourth down on the day, but both decisions to go were backed by the numbers. This game wasn’t lost by Campbell’s decision-making, but that doesn’t mean he’s free of blame for the loss. His time management down the stretch was worthy of ridicule. He burned too much clock with fourth-quarter runs and neither of his trick play calls worked. We’re only three games into the Week 13 slate, but his wildcat pass call for David Montgomery has already won the “worst play design of the week” award. And Campbell couldn’t figure out a way to protect Goff from Micah Parsons, who wrecked the game with 2.5 sacks and seven pressures.
Campbell has been calling plays for a month now, and so far it’s been a mixed bag. The Lions are still struggling to create explosive pass plays or consistency in the run game when Jahmyr Gibbs isn’t dusting defenses on long runs. Campbell’s job should get a little easier with center Frank Ragnow coming out of retirement—Ragnow will shore up the interior offensive line, which has been the weak point of the offense all season. But Campebll could be without Amon-Ra St. Brown for a few weeks after he left Thursday’s game with an ankle injury. It’s unclear whether Ragnow will be ready to go in time for next Thursday’s game against the Cowboys, which has massive playoff implications for both teams. It sounds like St. Brown won’t be available, which will raise the difficulty for Campbell in what could be the most consequential game of Detroit’s season. If his play-calling doesn’t improve, better luck on fourth down sure would help.
Winner: The Joe Burrow-Ja’Marr Chase connection
Cincinnati’s 32-14 win in Baltimore didn’t really improve the team’s playoff chances, which sit at just 5 percent according to The Athletic’s playoff predictor, but at least Joe Burrow’s back and giving the fans something to watch as time runs out on this lost season. If you forgot how fun it is to watch Burrow throw to Ja’Marr Chase, well, the old college teammates offered up an instant reminder on Thursday, connecting for seven receptions for 110 yards. Those plays included timing routes, off-schedule throws, and one perfectly thrown and tracked deep ball.
Burrow’s connection with his other teammates was a little more hit or miss. He averaged just 4.3 yards per dropback with a 28.6 percent success rate when targeting anyone other than Chase. He missed a few throws and his timing was off on others, so there’s clearly some rust he needs to shake off after returning from a turf toe injury. Bengals head coach Zac Taylor gave him plenty of reps to do it: Burrow dropped back 49 times in his return.
Cincinnati’s offense spent a lot of time on the field thanks to its defense, which forced five Baltimore turnovers, including three by Lamar Jackson. The Ravens quarterback fumbled twice and threw an interception on a pass batted at the line of scrimmage. The pick was a bit unlucky, and the second fumble easily could have been ruled an incomplete pass, but Jackson basically handed the Bengals the ball—and a short field—on his first fumble.
Jackson hadn’t turned the ball over three times in a game in four years before Thursday’s stinker. It was an uncharacteristic day for the two-time MVP in that regard, but he’s been stacking up poor performances since his return from injury, which continued against Cincinnati. Even when he wasn’t turning the ball over, Jackson didn’t look right. He was jumpy in the pocket and inaccurate with his throws. He made a few plays out of structure but never found a rhythm otherwise. That all finally caught up to Baltimore this week, which saw its five-game win streak snapped.
With the win, Cincinnati eked a little closer to Baltimore and Pittsburgh in the division with only five games to go. The odds aren’t in the Bengals favor, but if Jackson stays in this funk and Burrow and Chase get hot, the AFC North race could quickly turn into a three-team contest with Cincinnati trying to walk down the Ravens and Steelers. Even if the Bengals can’t ultimately catch the two frontrunners, it will be fun to watch them try.
Winner: NFL schedule-makers
Before we move onto Sunday’s games, I wanted to give thanks to the NFL schedule-makers for finally giving us a great Thanksgiving slate. I know it’s been difficult in the past, as the Lions were stuck in the league’s basement for years before Campbell turned things around in 2023. Plus, the Cowboys’ inconsistency hasn’t made it any easier. But this year, it felt like the schedule-makers finally went with a common-sense approach to putting together the matchups. Packers-Lions was sure to hit. Sending Mahomes to Dallas was an inspired idea. They got a little lucky with Burrow’s speedy recovery—and Bengals-Ravens wasn’t quite the banger it is when both quarterbacks are playing at their highest levels—but the first two games of the day were enthralling enough to make up for it.
