It’s rare to see the most compelling game of the week buried in the early window on Sunday, but that’s the case in Week 12 of the NFL. Just as we all expected in the preseason, an 8-2 offensive juggernaut is playing against an aimless 5-5 team in Kansas City—only the Colts are the former, and the Chiefs are the latter. Indianapolis has a chance to put the Chiefs' playoff hopes in serious peril, but the betting markets aren’t too confident it’ll do so, as the Colts enter as 3.5-point underdogs.
The Chiefs would not make the playoffs if the season ended today, but the market still rates them as one of the league’s elite squads. And while the Colts have flashy stats, some Daniel Jones skeptics remain out there. Kansas City vs. Indy is the marquee game, and hopefully that game is so compelling that you don’t have to count on the late window for entertainment:
With all due respect to the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles, it’s hard to find a less exciting late slate of football all year. Anyway, let’s dive in.
The Dolphins, Broncos, Chargers, and Commanders are on bye in Week 12, leaving us with 14 games on the card. Here are my thoughts on the Week 12 slate, starting with the bets I’ve made already. (All lines are from FanDuel as of Thursday morning.)
The Favorite Five
I’ll be highlighting my favorite five picks each week throughout the season, which will serve as a preview for my picks on The Ringer 107—a season-long contest between The Bill Simmons Podcast, The Ringer NFL Show, The Ringer Gambling Show, and The Ringer Fantasy Football Show. I’ll be partnering with Cousin Sal to make the Gambling Show’s Friday picks. Through 11 weeks, this column is 44-45-1 overall and 26-29 on the Favorite Five.
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (–1.5)
FanDuel opened Atlanta as a 2.5-point road favorite this past Sunday night, but it didn’t take long for that to switch to the Saints once news about Michael Penix Jr. and Drake London filtered in. Penix has torn his ACL and will be out for the rest of the season, while London remains week-to-week and will miss the New Orleans game. The Falcons just played back-to-back overtime games, and their defense did seem to wear down in the second half against Carolina. Now they’re on the road in the notorious “dream-crusher” spot—the game after your season’s ambitions and hopes are dashed. Raheem Morris is rapidly trending toward lame duck status, and I don’t think Kirk Cousins is going to save him.
It’s worth noting just how important London has been to the Falcons offense this season. While Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson are plenty active in the passing game, London has more than double the targets of any other Atlanta wide receiver. New Orleans also has a solid rushing defense on paper, making London’s absence all the more damaging to Atlanta.
Looking at the Saints, I’m encouraged by what we’ve seen so far from Tyler Shough despite New Orleans picking up only 27 total points in his first two starts. Shough has made consistently good decisions from the pocket, and he’s been able to achieve modest downfield passing success. I’m not saying he’s the long-term answer, but the rest advantage plus home-field advantage make me confident in the Saints.
Verdict: Bet Saints –1.5 (–110)
New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals (+8.5)
Cincinnati’s defense has officially reached the Walking Dead level. The DVOA stat goes back to 1978, and it has never measured a defense as bad through 10 games as the 2025 Bengals have been. Cincinnati generates no pressure, its linebackers can’t cover in space, the run defense is abysmal, and the tackling is comical. If you don’t believe me, just watch them try to tackle Darnell Washington on Sunday. (OK, maybe tackling Washington is hard for most defenses.)
This line ballooned from Patriots –7 to Patriots –8.5 following the news that Ja’Marr Chase was suspended for spitting at Jalen Ramsey last week. Then it bounced back to Patriots –7 once Joe Burrow was a full participant in practice on Wednesday.
There’s been clear market support for New England, but while the Patriots are 9-2 and sitting atop the AFC East, the advanced metrics remain skeptical of them.
The Patriots sit at just 17th in total DVOA, in large part due to very mediocre defensive metrics (29th overall). They’ve played a very weak schedule of opposing offenses and now get to play a Cincinnati team that is without its best offensive player. There will be opportunities for the Bengals to score points against an overrated Patriots defense once the Bengals are in catch-up mode, which makes the over a very interesting wager here. Almost every game in Cincinnati for the past two years has been a shoot-out. Whether it’s Burrow or Flacco, I expect points.
Here are Cincinnati’s last 12 home games:
- 38-33 loss to Washington
- 41-38 loss to Baltimore
- 37-17 loss to Philadelphia
- 41-24 win against Las Vegas
- 44-38 loss to Pittsburgh
- 24-6 win against Cleveland
- 30-24 win against Denver
- 31-27 win against Jacksonville
- 37-24 loss to Detroit
- 33-31 win against New England
- 39-38 loss to New York (Jets)
- 47-42 loss to Chicago
Verdict: Bet over 50.5 (–110)
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (+3.5)
It’s difficult to judge how much the Cowboys defense should be upgraded in power ratings following a dominant performance against the Raiders on Monday Night Football. On the one hand, the Raiders’ offensive line is completely useless, and that made it pretty easy for the Cowboys’ defensive front to get after Geno Smith. However, the trade deadline addition of Quinnen Williams and the return of DeMarvion Overshown should help this defense take a step up from generationally bad to just generally bad.
When these two teams opened the season in Philadelphia, the Cowboys’ zone coverages took away explosive plays from the Eagles and forced them to be extremely methodical. Jalen Hurts barely threw the ball down the field, and while Philadelphia eventually managed to move the ball efficiently, the Eagles were unable to pull away and create a margin. It was a weird game due to the third-quarter lightning delay, but Matt Eberflus’s defensive approach was and continues to be the right one against this struggling Eagles offense. It wouldn’t have worked last year because the Eagles could just run all over you, but the Philadelphia run game isn’t the same this year. The offensive line, Saquon Barkley, and even Hurts in the rushing game have been considerably less efficient than in past seasons.
The Eagles defense might be the best in the league following consecutive dominant performances against the Lions and Packers. But Dak Prescott is no stranger to this matchup, and he’s at home, where the Cowboys offense is an entirely different operation. I think the Eagles should be favored by three, and I’ll take 3.5 with Dallas here as a result.
Verdict: Bet Cowboys +3.5 (–120)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Arizona Cardinals (+2.5)
Many wrote off the Jaguars after their embarrassing fourth-quarter collapse against the Texans in Week 10. Not me! The Jaguars were home underdogs to the Chargers this past Sunday and ended up having the easiest win of the day after running all over Los Angeles. Now the narrative has flipped on Jacksonville, which is currently sitting in a playoff spot, and some are buying back in following the Jags’ big win. Also not me! Jacksonville is the same flawed team it was a week ago, but the Cardinals might have taken the mantle of the most injured team in the NFL from the 49ers.
On Sunday, even without Marvin Harrison Jr., who will miss the action again this week, Jacoby Brissett had no problem breaking the NFL record for completions in a single game. If the Cardinals drop back Brissett over and over again, he should have no problem dicing up a bad Jaguars secondary. The Chargers couldn’t do this because Justin Herbert was under immediate duress nearly every snap, but the Jaguars are 23rd in defensive dropback EPA (with turnovers removed).
Arizona’s defense is completely decimated by injuries at every level, but the offense has proved it can score plenty in catch-up mode. The Cardinals and Jaguars should play a high-scoring game on Sunday.
Verdict: Bet over 47.5 (–105)
Cleveland Browns at Las Vegas Raiders (–3.5)
If the Raiders couldn’t effectively block the Cowboys, I don’t know that they’ll be able to block the Browns, and Myles Garrett especially, in this game. However, this terrible Raiders defense will be going up against Shedeur Sanders—whom the Browns are starting out of desperation, not choice. In his cameo in the second half of the game against Baltimore on Sunday, he did not look like a quarterback who belongs on an NFL field. He finished 4-of-16 with an interception and two sacks. He also had an interception dropped and a bad intentional grounding penalty that gave Baltimore excellent field position.
Laying 3.5 points on a game that’s totaled at 36.5 isn’t for the faint of heart, but who knows how many opportunities we’ll get to bet against Sanders in an NFL game? If he’s not ready to play QB at the pro level, this is a unique betting opportunity that the markets may not be effectively pricing.
Verdict: Bet Raiders –3.5 (–110)
Thursday Night Football
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (+5.5)
The Bills have played 93 regular-season games since the start of the 2020 season; their 23-20 loss to the Texans last season marked the lowest offensive success rate they had in any of those games (32.2 percent), by almost 5 percentage points. Buffalo’s limited receiving room couldn’t produce separation from a lockdown Houston secondary that day, and Josh Allen finished 9-of-30 for 131 yards. I’m not saying Allen will have a repeat of that performance, but the Texans are capable of shutting down Buffalo, as Houston’s coverage unit is one of the most dominant in the NFL. Without Dalton Kincaid, who’s ruled out for Thursday, which Bills pass catcher can strike fear into the Houston defense?
On defense, Buffalo is giving up explosive plays at the second-highest rate in the league. A large part of that is due to its inability to prevent big runs. Only the Giants and Dolphins have allowed more explosive runs of 10-plus yards than Buffalo. I expect a heavy dose of Woody Marks from the Texans offense, even though their running game has been quite hit or miss. For all of the Texans' offensive flaws, their defense has been able to keep them in almost every game this season.
The Texans unders have been kind to us all year long, and while I lean toward Houston for the side in this game, I prefer the under, as the Texans embrace a run-heavy script and really lean on their defense.
Verdict: Bet under 43.5 (–110)
The Rest of the Slate
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (–3.5)
One of the main story lines of the week in the football nerd community is the idea that maybe, just maybe, the 2025 Chiefs at 5-5 are actually better than the 2024 Chiefs who started 9-1. One-score games are inherently noisy and not particularly predictive, and last year’s Chiefs defied logic and football fickleness when they won every one-possession game they played in. Bill Barnwell wrote about this concept for ESPN, and my colleague Sheil Kapadia tweeted about it. It is funny that the football gods have punished Kansas City with a season in which they are now losing every toss-up game, but it doesn’t ultimately change what the betting markets think about the Chiefs’ true quality. As of Wednesday, the NFL's Inpredictable market ratings put the Chiefs as the second-best team in the NFL. If you truly think they are worse, then you have a betting opportunity to fade them down the stretch, because no matter how many close games they lose, the oddsmakers aren’t going to give you a “discount” to back Kansas City.
Now, on to Indianapolis. Through 11 weeks of football, there are only two offenses this century with a higher points-per-drive rating than the 2025 Colts.
Most Efficient Offenses in Points per Drive Since 2000
Each team possesses a distinct advantage. For the Colts, it’s the ability to create explosive runs. Indianapolis is top five at generating big plays on the ground. Meanwhile, the Chiefs offense is entirely reliant on the passing game to produce any kind of chunk yardage—though it does it well.
The Colts will also field their best secondary of the season now that Charvarius Ward is back from his concussion, joining the newly added Sauce Gardner and veteran Kenny Moore II. Indianapolis still has questions covering the middle of the field and generating a pass rush without DeForest Buckner (injured reserve), but we have seen Lou Anarumo change the picture and throw a lot of different looks to slow down the Chiefs before, so why can’t he do it again?
The market for this game has bounced back and forth between Chiefs –3 and Chiefs –3.5 for most of the early part of the week. I’d consider Indianapolis at 3.5.
Verdict: Lean Colts +3.5 (–115)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Chicago Bears (–2.5)
Pittsburgh is finally making defensive adjustments! After the Bengals and Packers torched this defense in consecutive prime-time games, the Pittsburgh defense found its footing again. It wreaked havoc on a dominant Colts offense in Week 9 and turned them over six times. The Chargers ended up finding offensive success against Pittsburgh the ensuing week, but that loss had more to do with the total ineptitude of the Pittsburgh offense than anything else. The Steelers switched from a primarily man approach in their first game against Cincinnati this season to a primarily two-high zone one in their second game last week. Cincinnati scored 33 points against Pittsburgh in the first meeting but just 12 last week in the rematch.
Pittsburgh’s defense played well below its talent level for the majority of the past calendar year, and that unit’s improvement could be a saving grace for the Steelers’ hopes of winning the AFC North and holding off the surging Ravens.
The status of Aaron Rodgers remains uncertain entering Week 12. Mike Tomlin said that Rodgers doesn’t need surgery, but in reading the tea leaves, I’d say he’s more than likely out for this game, which means it’s Mason Rudolph time. It’s fair to debate how much of a gap there is between the two quarterbacks right now, too. After all, most of the Pittsburgh offense comes down to getting the ball out quickly and not throwing downfield. Rudolph doesn’t have the processing skills of Rodgers, of course, but he can give the team most of what Rodgers is giving it.
I’m tempted by the Steelers, but I would need a full +3 to actually bet them here.
Verdict: Lean Pittsburgh +2.5, bet at +3 (–115 or better)
New York Giants at Detroit Lions (–10.5)
While Jaxson Dart was the Giants quarterback, they (tied with the Chargers) had more scramble EPA than any other offense in the NFL. His legs alone created a functioning offense even as the injuries to the skill-position players piled up. Dart returned to practice on Wednesday, but he’s under a directive from the Giants to run less. What is the Giants offense if he doesn’t utilize his legs as much?
Jameis Winston’s offense scored 20 points at home against Green Bay last week, but he needed multiple dropped interceptions and three fourth-down conversions to achieve that. It’s not a sustainable way to play going forward.
The big problem for the Giants in this matchup isn’t on offense, though. They have allowed more explosive runs than every other team in the league. That’s a recipe for disaster for a defense about to play Dan Campbell’s Lions, indoors, with Detroit coming off a loss. The Lions have covered 13 in a row off a loss under his leadership, including a 52-21 drubbing of the Bears and a 44-22 beatdown of the Commanders.
When the Giants played explosive rushing offenses in recent weeks, the Eagles and 49ers posted 38 and 34 points, respectively. The market is currently sitting at Lions –10.5, but I suspect it could drop to 10 if Dart is officially ruled in. At that point, I’d buy the Lions.
Verdict: Wait to see if you can bet Lions –10 (–110)
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (–6.5)
J.J. McCarthy enters Week 12 in a corner of the chart that you never want to be in. The Vikings quarterback hasn’t just been inefficient and reckless with the ball, but he’s also been inaccurate from clean pockets and struggled to deliver the ball to the left side of the field. McCarthy did make some big throws in the final minutes against the Bears last week to lead a near-comeback, but he left so many plays on the field in the first 55 minutes against one of the league’s worst secondaries.
The Packers are searching for more consistent week-to-week performances, and they’re also quickly running out of skill position players. Romeo Doubs and Josh Jacobs are listed as questionable. Matthew Golden was a limited participant in practice and Jayden Reed isn’t expected back yet. Until there’s a clearer picture of the Packers’ offensive health, it’s hard for me to bet them here.
Verdict: Lean Green Bay –6.5, wait for more news on the skill group
Seattle Seahawks at Tennessee Titans (+13.5)
Tennessee has quietly played a ridiculous schedule of opposing defenses. Not only did the Titans struggle mightily in both games with the Texans, but they had to face the Rams and Broncos, too. None of those games went well, and I highly doubt a matchup with the Seahawks is going to fare much better.
The Titans defense itself has given up a ton of explosive plays, and that’s where the Seattle offense lives. The Rams defense forced them to move the ball methodically last week, but the Titans don’t have the same capability to do that.
One sneaky situational spot: Because of a weird scheduling quirk, the Titans have been at home for four consecutive weeks (including the bye). Meanwhile, Seattle is on a back-to-back road trip. The Seahawks will probably get a turnover or two from Cam Ward to generate margin, but you have to think Seattle is a very elite team to warrant them laying 13.5 on the road. I am not quite there yet.
Verdict: Pass
New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens (–13.5)
Lamar Jackson didn’t practice on Wednesday due to an ankle injury, which means he’s now had three different lower-body injuries in the last three weeks. On the field, it looks like he’s operating at about 60 percent of the usual Jackson supernova levels. Either way, the Ravens did win three consecutive games on the road against very limited offenses and now return home to face … another very limited offense.
Given the state of Baltimore’s own offense—lacking explosiveness and struggling for consistency—I could only bet the underdog here. Tyrod Taylor is an improvement at QB over Justin Fields in this situation, but I don’t want to go to war with the Jets again unless this line hits +14 again. It moved from +14.5 to +13.5 on Monday morning, and that’s a pretty substantial move.
Verdict: Lean Jets +13.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Rams (–6.5)
The Rams are now rated by the market as the best team in the NFL. That may or may not be true, but it is a decent “sell” indicator as far as how selling high and buying low typically works in the NFL market. The Rams won their massive divisional clash with Seattle last week, thanks in large part to a shockingly bad Sam Darnold performance and an incredible coffin-corner punt from Ethan Evans.
The main key to this game is whether the Bucs run defense can hold up when the Rams use their three-tight-ends formations. Todd Bowles isn’t one to match coverages often. He’ll trust that his run defense, led by Vita Vea, can hold up and keep the Rams’ run game at bay. If he’s able to do that, then the Buccaneers defense should hold up enough to keep this game within a score.
The main issue with betting this game early in the week is sorting out the injury report for the Buccaneers. Bucky Irving and Chris Godwin remain uncertain, as they have been for seemingly the last month. As if the Bucs didn’t have bad enough luck, now there’s an illness spreading within the team that landed Baker Mayfield on the injury report.
If the line jumps back to 7, I would bet the Buccaneers because Mayfield will have so many opportunities to throw his way back into the game. Until then, I’ll be waiting.
Verdict: Bet Bucs at +7 (–110) if it gets there
Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers (–7)
The line briefly bounced to Niners –6.5 early in the week before jumping back to a full touchdown. The 49ers are nearing full strength on offense after the return of Ricky Pearsall and Brock Purdy, and the offense should have no issues moving the ball up and down the field.
Carolina had an amazing comeback win last week in the fourth quarter and overtime, but I do wonder if that would have happened had Michael Penix Jr. not left the game with an injury. Atlanta scored three touchdowns on four first-half drives, one of which covered 95 yards.
The main issue with laying significant points with the 49ers is that their own defense hasn’t proved it can actually stop anyone over the last two months. As the injuries have taken their toll, San Francisco is 29th in EPA per play allowed since Week 5.
Verdict: Pass
The Favorite Five
Saints –1.5 (–110)
Cowboys +3.5 (–115)
Raiders –3.5 (–110)
Patriots-Bengals over 50.5 (–105)
Jaguars-Cardinals over 47.5 (–105)
Other Bets
Bills-Texans under 43.5 (–110)
Waiting for Lions –10
Waiting for Steelers +3
