Every week this NFL season, we will break down the highs and lows—and everything in between—from the most recent slate of pro football. This week, Sam Darnold’s turnover troubles returned, the Broncos took control of the AFC West, Josh Allen did Josh Allen things, Jalen Ramsey and Ja’Marr Chase brought us Spitgate 2.0, and more. Welcome to Winners and Losers.
Loser: Sam Darnold
Rams defensive coordinator Chris Shula brings out the worst in Seattle QB Sam Darnold. In three games against Shula’s defense dating back to last season (when Darnold was in Minnesota), Darnold is 0-3, he’s been sacked 12 times, and has thrown five interceptions. He threw four of those picks on Sunday in a massive divisional loss to the Rams. Against other defensive coordinators since the start of last season, Darnold is 21-4 and one the league’s most productive quarterbacks. Here are the splits, via TruMedia.
The last two columns offer a good explanation for why Shula’s defense is affecting Darnold. The Seahawks quarterback is going to hunt for big throws. It’s in his nature. And it’s in the Rams’ nature to prevent those downfield throws. When the deep shots are not there, Darnold either holds onto the ball (and takes a bunch of sacks, like he did in last year’s wild-card loss to L.A.) or throws into coverage (and throws a bunch of picks, like he did on Sunday). Seattle has had the league’s most explosive passing game, but in Week 11 it produced just one completion over 20 air yards—and even that required a remarkable one-handed grab by Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
The Rams’ pass rush and coverage units worked in concert to hurry Darnold into tight-window throws. Kam Kinchens started the interception party by undercutting a backfoot throw against man coverage.
Next, Byron Young got a free lane to Darnold, who forced an anticipatory throw that Cobie Durant jumped for the interception.
And later, Darnold tried to force a throw up the seam to a bracketed tight end that could have been picked off by two Rams defenders.
Shula’s defense made Darnold and the Seahawks offense play left-handed. Because they were playing catch-up, the Seahawks didn’t get to access their play-action pass game, which has boosted the offense’s explosive play rate this season. Offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak couldn’t get the run game going, so Darnold found himself in obvious pass situations, and that’s when he tends to struggle.
The ceiling for Seattle’s passing game remains high, but it might continue to have issues against defenses that can stop the run, win with a four-man rush, and play tight coverage downfield. Most offenses do! That Seattle had a chance to win the game late is a testament to Mike Macdonald’s defense. The Seahawks were the first team this season that made Matthew Stafford look old. The Rams’ 37-year-old quarterback was pressured on 42.9 percent of his dropbacks and did not handle it well. Stafford averaged just 2.4 yards per pressured dropback and a third of his attempts were off-target, per TruMedia. It was a setback for Stafford’s MVP campaign. The Rams’ run game put up decent numbers on the surface but had a success rate of just 26 percent. That combined with their third-down struggles—they converted just 2-of-11 attempts—kept the offense from finding its groove.
The Seahawks defense was mostly responsible for that. They were just as dominant as the Rams defense was against Darnold, but Seattle lost the turnover battle four to one. Stafford stunk it up but protected the football; Darnold did not. That was the difference in the game. It was a narrow victory for Sean McVay’s team that swung the divisional odds in its favor. The Rams’ probability of winning the NFC West jumped to 78 percent after Sunday’s win, per Next Gen Stats. If Shula can get the better of Darnold for a fourth time in Week 16, the division will be theirs.
Winner: The Full Josh Allen Experience
It started out like one of those games for Josh Allen. Just two plays into a pivotal match against the Buccaneers, the Bills superstar checked in with one of the worst plays you will ever see by a good quarterback: He threw a two-handed chest pass while trying to muscle his way out of a sack in the end zone. Allen was probably envisioning a far cooler outcome when the idea popped into his head.
That was one of a season-high three turnover-worthy plays for Allen in the game. Tampa Bay dropped a pick but was able to corral another tipped pass in the second quarter. It was his fourth multi-turnover game of the season, and Buffalo had lost the three previous ones. But the Bills didn’t lose this one because the reigning MVP flipped what started out as another frustrating performance into a historically dominant performance. By the end of the 44-32 Buffalo win, Allen had tallied six touchdowns, three through the air and three on the ground, and 357 total yards. No other quarterback in the Super Bowl era has ever thrown and rushed for three scores each. Allen has now done it twice in the past two seasons, per Next Gen Stats.
Allen’s best throw of the game came on a scramble-drill play. This was supposed to be a quick-game pass, but Allen scrambled around for over six seconds before hurling an accurate pass downfield for Tyrell Shavers in the end zone.
Bills fans who watched Allen connect with a receiver wearing no. 14 on a long touchdown had to feel like Anton Ego tasting that ratatouille. It seems silly to say this about an offense led by a 29-year-old quarterback, but it felt like a vintage performance. At the very least, it was entertaining to watch, which hasn’t been the case often enough for a brilliant playmaker. You know Allen is really feeling it when he’s throwing downfield laterals just because.
And pulling off physical comedy gags with teammates.
If you had to show someone one game to explain Allen as a player, this would be the one. It had a little bit of everything. While it was a blast to watch, I’m not sure if this performance means the Bills offense is back. It is just a tad concerning that Shavers and Gabe Davis were the most targeted and productive wide receivers in the game. It’s concerning that you and I technically had more receiving yards than Khalil Shakir on Sunday. It’s doubly concerning that last year’s first-round pick, Keon Coleman, was a healthy scratch after showing up late to a team meeting on Friday. With the passing game showing significant improvement without Coleman, he may have a fight on his hands to earn his reps back.
The issue with Buffalo’s offense—the lack of receiving talent that can win downfield—hasn’t changed after the offense’s 44-point explosion. When Allen plays like Superman, little else matters. They look average when he’s anything less than that. Against Tampa Bay, the guy with the cape showed up and kept the Bills in the AFC East race at 7-3.
Winner: The Broncos’ AFC West Title Hopes
Heading into Week 11, the AFC West standings said one thing about the state of the division, but the vibes and general consensus seemed to indicate another. So which was right: a leaderboard that showed the Broncos in first place and the Chiefs in third? Or the pundits and Las Vegas sportsbooks that still viewed Kansas City as the favorite?
On Sunday, the home underdog Broncos made a definitive statement with their 22-19 win over the Chiefs: The AFC West is theirs to lose. At 9-2, Denver has a two-game lead on the Chargers (who lost Sunday in Jacksonville) and has opened a significant gap on the 5-5 Chiefs, who are in real danger of snapping their streak of nine consecutive division titles. “Obviously [those] guys have been on top for a while. As a team, we wanted to take the next step, but in order for us to take the next step, we have to beat them guys, get through them,” said Denver cornerback Ja’Quan McMillian, who intercepted Patrick Mahomes in the third quarter and sacked the Chiefs quarterback late in the fourth. “It was a wonderful win for us.”
And it wasn’t a fluky one. Yes, Bo Nix orchestrated yet another fourth-quarter comeback (his fifth of the season), but this was a well-executed game plan by an offense that had received plenty of criticism coming off last week’s frustrating (OK, downright ugly) performance against the Raiders. Nix appeared far more poised and confident in the pocket than he did against Las Vegas, while producing one of his most efficient performances of the season—his fourth best by EPA per dropback and completion percentage, while he had his lowest rate of off-target throws of the season, per TruMedia.
But in classic Nix fashion, he was at his best late in the game, particularly on Denver’s game-winning drive. Facing a third-and-15 from Denver’s 21-yard line just before the two-minute warning, Nix identified the Chiefs defense and shifted his offensive lineman’s assignments. Once the ball was snapped, he stepped up into the pocket to avoid the Chiefs’ rushers and found Courtland Sutton for a 20-yard gain. It was a huge conversion, and one that forced the Chiefs to use their remaining timeouts, but Nix wasn’t done. With 54 seconds remaining, Nix launched a deep pass down the left side of the field for Troy Franklin. Nix and Franklin’s deep-ball connection had been off all afternoon, in part because of sticky coverage by Kansas City’s Jaylen Watson, but this time, Franklin was able to come down with the catch and stay in bounds. From there, Denver set up for Wil Lutz’s game-winning 35-yard kick.
It was a chip shot for Lutz, but you’d forgive the Broncos—and their fans—if they were holding their breath until the ball passed through the uprights. Just over a year ago, Lutz had a 35-yard game-winning attempt against Kansas City blocked as time expired. That was a devastating defeat for a young Broncos team that was just starting to find its footing during Nix’s rookie season. Denver rallied to make the playoffs as the no. 7 seed, but was never a real factor in the division race.
That’s all changed—this is the AFC West front-runner, and a team that probably needs to be taken seriously in the conference race as well, even if there are still questions about the offense’s long-term viability, especially with starting running back J.K. Dobbins landing on injured reserve on Saturday with a foot injury he suffered in Week 10, and Nix’s inconsistent play. The Broncos remain one of the league’s most penalized teams (Denver and Kansas City were called for 10 penalties apiece on Sunday, a tally doesn’t include the flag for unsportsmanlike conduct for this sideline collision that was declined) and Nix and head coach Sean Payton continue to work through operational issues with the offense when it comes to getting the play calls in and communicated to the huddle in a timely fashion, which is at times preventing Denver from playing with the tempo it would like.
The Broncos are contenders because of an elite defense that throttled the Chiefs in the red zone and flustered Mahomes in crunch time. Kansas City took a 19-16 lead on a Travis Kelce touchdown with about 10 minutes remaining, but with a chance to ice the game late in the fourth quarter, the Chiefs went three-and-out on back-to-back drives. The Chiefs had a combined –3 net yards on those two final possessions.
The loss puts the Chiefs in unfamiliar territory. They are now 0-5 in one-score games this season (we all remember their 11-0 record in similar situations last season on their run to a third straight Super Bowl), and are essentially in must-win games for the rest of the season.
“Obviously it’s going to be tough to get back in the division race,” Mahomes said after the game. “But at the end of the day, the goal is to get into the playoffs and try to make a run at it. All you can focus on is next week.” —Lindsay Jones
Loser: Jared Goff Vs. the Elements
The new Dan Campbell–led offense flunked its first major stress test in the Sunday nightcap, with the Lions mustering only nine points in a loss to the defending Super Bowl champs. The Eagles offense seemed to have little interest in winning the game, but the defense stopped the run and pressured Lions quarterback Jared Goff—which is usually enough to cause Detroit’s offense to spiral.
You throw in some brisk weather and gusts of wind in Philadelphia, and Goff didn’t really stand a chance. Per TruMedia, he was off-target on a comical 32 percent of his throws Sunday night. That’s the highest mark in a single game this season and 3 full percentage points clear of the field. It’s never good when Goff runs out of the tunnel with those white gloves on. Goff seemed to get worse as the game went along. He completed only two of his final 18 attempts in a failed comeback attempt.
Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni essentially spotted Detroit’s offense three points thanks to his questionable fourth-down decision with Philadelphia up by 10 points late and backed up in its own territory. The Lions stuffed the Eagles on a tush push, which provided Goff and the offense a short field, though they couldn’t get into the end zone. And just when it seemed like the Lions defense was going to come up with a stop and give Goff one more shot, the refs threw a flag for this terribly soft pass interference call on Rock Ya-Sin.
That call stinks and gave us an anticlimactic ending, but I wouldn’t say the Lions deserved another chance at winning the game, and it might have just given the Eagles defense more opportunities to come after Goff. He was dreadful when playing under pressure. I mean, unspeakably bad. On 12 pressured dropbacks, he was sacked twice and did not complete one of his 10 attempts. He finished with a zero-percent success rate and averaged –1.0 yards per play.
The Lions have seven more games to get it together, but I’m not buying this team as a serious championship contender. The offensive line has been gutted by offseason departures and injuries. The run game produces at least one electric Jahmyr Gibbs highlight per game but little beyond that. And when Goff faces pressure or a mild cold front, he throws like Tim Tebow. God forbid he has to deal with both in one game in the playoffs like he did on Sunday night. With Detroit falling to 6-4, well behind both the Rams and Eagles in the NFC standings, they will almost certainly be on the road in January. And in the NFC, against Philly, L.A., and Seattle, Goff will have to get through some game-wrecking pass rushes (and potentially some inclement weather) to make a run to the Super Bowl. We have a large enough sample size to know how that will end.
Loser: Justin Jefferson’s Joy
Jefferson isn’t a loser; he just finds himself in a no-win situation this season. The Vikings star is on pace for just over 1,200 yards and three touchdowns, and he said earlier this week that he’s lost his joy when on the field. “[I just want] to get back to that kid phase of overly loving football, overly loving being out there on Sundays, making the big plays,” Jefferson said on Thursday. And here’s how it went on Sunday in a 19-17 loss to the Bears.
Maybe the joy will return next week!
It would be easier to feel more optimistic about Jefferson’s outlook if he were getting NFL-level service from his quarterback, but J.J. McCarthy still looks dreadfully unprepared to play in this league. McCarthy’s fifth start wasn’t any better than his previous four. He was inaccurate and made poor decisions en route to 150 yards and two picks on 32 dropbacks. It was the third-worst performance of his season.
McCarthy’s inconsistent play has made Jefferson’s job considerably more difficult. This isn’t an A.J. Brown situation. Jefferson is getting plenty of targets; they just aren’t very good targets. In the last two games alone, he’s had seven inaccurate passes thrown his way. In the games McCarthy has started this season, Jefferson has received 2.0 inaccurate targets per game, which would lead the league, per TruMedia. Jefferson’s effort was questioned after he appeared to give up on a pass that was intercepted against Baltimore, but I’m actually surprised he hasn’t shown more quit given what he’s dealing with.
Jefferson’s inaccurate targets have cost Minnesota over 27 expected points. Overall, his targets have generated –8.6 EPA on the season. If he stays on this pace, it’ll be the first time in his career that his season-long target EPA falls in the red. Jefferson showed signs of frustration throughout Sunday’s loss to Chicago, and rightfully so, but he was still blocking his ass off on Jordan Mason’s touchdown run that pulled Minnesota back into the game.
To be fair, McCarthy deserves similar praise for hanging tough during a frustrating afternoon. He saved his best work for a touchdown drive that staked Minnesota to a one-point lead with 50 seconds remaining. McCarthy didn’t do anything special, but he got through his reads and threw the ball accurately. He generated just enough arm strength to muscle the go-ahead touchdown pass to Jordan Addison after getting deep into his progression.
The good times were short lived, though. Devin Duvernay returned the ensuing kickoff into Minnesota territory. The Bears found themselves in field goal range three D'Andre Swift runs later, and Cairo Santos hit the game-winning kick at the buzzer, sending the Vikings to a 4-6 record and Jefferson into another miserable week. He might get used to the feeling.
Loser: Shedeur Sanders
Can we all just promise to be normal about Shedeur Sanders’s first taste of NFL action? I know how naive that question is. Of course, the answer is no. Football media is not equipped to keep a storyline that involved race, nepotism, and, least serious of all, quarterback evaluation, from getting toxic. We’re going to be getting some takes this week. Just you watch.
My main takeaway from Sanders’s NFL debut, which came in the second half of a 23-16 loss to Baltimore, is that he wasn’t ready to play in this game. You can argue that the Browns did not prepare him to play—head coach Kevin Stefanski said after the game that Sanders hadn’t worked with the first team offense all season—but even considering the circumstances, the 144th pick in this year’s draft did not play like an NFL-level quarterback. By whatever measure you want to use, it was one of the worst statistical debuts ever for a quarterback. He finished 4-of-16 for 47 passing yards and an interception. He also lost 27 yards on two sacks, which brought his dropback average down to 1.7 yards. He had a success rate of just 19 percent. J.J. McCarthy is cringing at those numbers!
I’d be willing to give Sanders the benefit of the doubt for that stat line if the film wasn’t equally concerning in the ways many of his predraft critics predicted it would be. Sanders has mastered the art of spinning out of pressure directly into a sack. He showed an admirable willingness to push the ball downfield against Baltimore but didn’t hit those throws with regularity. He threw just one interception but it was an ugly one, and he was lucky to escape the game without at least two.
The most important opinion of Sanders’s performance is Stefanski’s, and the coach already sounds eager to get Dillon Gabriel, who suffered a concussion against the Ravens, back on the field.
It will be a tight turnaround for Gabriel to get through the concussion protocol in time to play next Sunday, so Sanders could get a second chance at making a first impression against the Raiders. With a week of practice with the first team and a game plan built around his strengths, Sanders should look better. He can’t look much worse.
Winner: Brock Purdy
Purdy finally returned to the field Sunday and showed little rust after missing six weeks with a toe injury. Purdy still looked comfortable executing a Kyle Shanahan offense, and he led the 49ers to 41 points on an efficient 19-for-26 day. He threw three touchdowns, including a perfectly weighted pass to tight end George Kittle down the sideline that gave San Francisco an early double-digit lead.
Purdy played a mostly clean game. He didn’t log a single off-target throw and had the fourth-highest success rate of the week, per TruMedia. There were a few moments, though, that were reminiscent of the recklessness we occasionally saw from Purdy before he suffered the injury. Cardinals safety Jalen Thompson dropped a freebie on a floated throw over the middle.
And Max Melton couldn’t corral a scramble-drill throw into double coverage.
Purdy also lost 14 yards on a sack while trying to extend a broken play. When the 49ers offense has been in a bad place—mostly last year but also early on this season—Purdy’s ad-libbing has often been the only thing keeping it afloat. But with Christian McCaffrey healthy and Shanahan doing some of his best work as a play caller right now, the Niners quarterback doesn’t need to do too much to keep the offense on schedule. Sunday’s game showed that Purdy will have to recalibrate, and the 41-point outburst shows how high he can push the ceiling when he’s playing well.
Even after being swept by the division-leading Rams, the Niners aren’t out of the NFC West race. They’re 7-4, just a game back of Los Angeles in the win column, and have an easy stretch coming up against the Panthers, Browns, and Titans before a tough stretch to end the season. Shanahan should be able to ease Purdy back into action before that stretch, which culminates in a Week 18 matchup with the Seahawks that could decide San Francisco’s playoff fate.
Winner: Spitgate, Part II
We’ve still got seven more weeks in the regular season plus the playoffs, and we’re already up to two Spitgates in 2025. We’re on a record pace thanks to Bengals star Ja’Marr Chase, who was caught on camera hawking a big old loogie on Steelers defensive back Jalen Ramsey.
Ramsey was ejected for swinging at Chase in response, but it will be the Cincinnati receiver who will likely be hearing from the league office in the next few days. It’s hard to fault Ramsey for reacting the way he did. He explained his actions succinctly after the game.
As Ramsey says, he’s no stranger to shitheadery. It’s kind of his thing. He once did enough antagonizing as a young corner in Jacksonville to pull the usually mild-mannered A.J. Green out of character and into a fistfight. Presumably, Ramsey didn’t need to spit to elicit that beatdown. Ramsey is an honorable shit stirrer. Chase, it seems, is not. The Bengals receiver emphatically denied spitting at Ramsey. “I never opened my mouth to that guy,” he said after the game. “I didn’t spit on nobody.” Unfortunately for Chase, there are dozens of high-def cameras recording every action on the field. What an audacious lie!
Ramsey got his revenge, and the Steelers picked up a win. They did lose quarterback Aaron Rodgers to a left wrist injury, but there isn’t a significant difference between Rodgers and backup Mason Rudolph at the moment, so that might not be the biggest loss. Pittsburgh will have a hard time holding off Baltimore, but it may have created enough separation from Cincinnati to hold off a Bengals team that could be getting Joe Burrow back sooner than expected.
