There are more lopsided games on the calendar for Week 8 than for any other week so far this NFL season. Of the 13 games scheduled this weekend, eight of them feature a team favored by at least 6.5 points.
While the NFC remains a relatively balanced conference overall, it’s striking to look at the market ratings and see just how bad the bottom of the AFC has become. Of the eight worst teams, six of them (Cincinnati, Miami, Cleveland, Las Vegas, the New York Jets, and Tennessee) reside in the AFC.
We’re likely to see more lopsided point spreads in AFC games going forward. More teams have byes this week than any other week this entire season, as the Jaguars, Rams, Cardinals, Lions, Seahawks, and Raiders are all off.
Here are my thoughts on the Week 8 slate, starting with the bets I’ve made already. (All lines are from FanDuel as of Thursday morning.)
The Favorite Five
I’ll be highlighting my favorite five picks each week throughout the season, which will serve as a preview for my picks on The Ringer 107—a season-long contest between The Bill Simmons Podcast, The Ringer NFL Show, The Ringer Gambling Show, and The Ringer Fantasy Football Show. I’ll be partnering with Cousin Sal to make the Gambling Show’s Friday picks. Through seven weeks, this column is 29-28 overall and 14-21 on the Favorite Five.
New York Jets at Cincinnati Bengals (–6.5)
The Bengals were a 5.5-point home underdog in Week 7 against the Steelers on Thursday Night Football. Now in Week 8, they're a 6.5-point favorite against the Jets. This line is assuming that Pittsburgh is more than 10 points better than the Jets on a neutral field. Even if you gave Cincinnati a significant offensive upgrade for Joe Flacco’s stellar showing against the Steelers, that is a major reach in my opinion. Pittsburgh had the highest offensive success rate of any team in Week 7. They lost because of multiple turnovers and the fact that Cincinnati had the ball last, but the Bengals are now in a different position as a significant home favorite by almost a touchdown. Trey Hendrickson remains day-to-day with a back injury, and Cincinnati has a strong case for being the worst defense in the NFL with or without him.
I know the Jets struggle to complete a forward pass. I know they’re 0-7. There are already people calling for Aaron Glenn’s job. The Jets especially struggled the last two weeks against an elite Denver defense and an improving Carolina defense. But it’s not like we haven’t seen the Jets move the ball at all this year. They scored 32 points on the Steelers in Week 1 and tallied 404 yards of offense against the Dolphins in Week 4. The Bengals defense is so vulnerable, especially against the run, that they are clearly a team to bet against as a massive favorite.
There are a lot of ugly underdogs in Week 8, perhaps none uglier than the Jets. Now potentially starting Tyrod Taylor at quarterback, they should have just enough of a passing game to keep this game within a score. I think the Jets are quite likely to pull off the upset.
Verdict: Bet Jets +6.5
Dallas Cowboys at Denver Broncos (–3.5)
For the third consecutive week, the Broncos are favored by more than a field goal, and it’s a spread that’s higher than I think it should be. How can you bet on Denver to generate margin when the Broncos play offense for only one quarter of the game? The Broncos have already had late-game comebacks against the Eagles and Giants in the past three weeks, and that’s wonderful for them, but the offense is leaving a ton of points on the field.
As much as Denver’s defense has elite metrics, it’s also played one of the weakest schedules of opposing offenses in the entire NFL. It has faced the Titans and rookie quarterback Cam Ward, both New York teams (one scored 32 points), the Bengals with Jake Browning at quarterback, and the Jekyll-and-Hyde Eagles. The Chargers and Colts are the only two consistently good offenses the Broncos have played. Los Angeles had 29 first downs (and 23 points), and Indianapolis scored 29 points despite mediocre red zone efficiency that day.
When the Broncos defense has played elite offenses (and quarterbacks who can navigate pressure and blitzes), it’s been an exploitable unit. The Cowboys happen to have an elite quarterback against man coverage and the blitz. Dak Prescott also has his full complement of offensive skill players available.
I don’t think the spread for this game should be any more than three on Sunday. I’ll never feel bad betting on the much better quarterback and offense catching more than a field goal.
Verdict: Bet Cowboys +3.5
Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers (+3)
Right now, Green Bay is struggling to generate margin against inferior teams because the defense can’t get off the field. Both the Bengals and Cardinals were able to shorten the game against them and keep the possession count low by moving the chains. Since the Packers’ dominant defensive showing in Week 3 against Cleveland, the Packers are 28th in drive series conversion rate allowed—a measure of how often a team turns a first-and-10 into another fresh set of downs. That’s an entire month of mediocre defensive football that does raise questions about their ability to produce havoc and force punts and turnovers. At least the Packers aren’t giving up many explosive plays, which is also contributing to the low-possession environment.
With Aaron Rodgers getting the ball out of his hands so quickly, Pittsburgh should be able to negate the Packers’ pass rush and limit the ability of Micah Parsons to wreck the game. Green Bay’s offense hasn’t put up elite stats in recent weeks, but it continues to be efficient and explosive. It’s sixth in points per drive this year and second in explosive play rate.
Last Thursday exposed to the national audience what the metrics have suggested for more than a year: The Steelers defense is kinda washed. Pittsburgh’s defense fell off hard toward the end of last season and was overmatched by Kansas City, Philadelphia, and Baltimore (three times by the latter specifically, including the playoffs). Giving up 32 points to the 2025 Jets was an alarming sign that nothing had been fixed to start this season. The defense forced some turnovers and held up against the Patriots and Browns, but they’re not generating enough of a pass rush, and everyone is moving the ball on them.
Green Bay should score plenty of points, and this total is once again too low. I’d bet over 44.5 and also consider betting the Packers team total over.
Verdict: Bet over 44.5
Chicago Bears at Baltimore Ravens (–6.5)
The market is refusing to give up on its love of the Baltimore Ravens through six games. This price reflects the expected return of Lamar Jackson and a continued skepticism of the Bears. Chicago has gone over its team total in all six of its games, and only the Colts have been a more efficient running team than the Bears in the last two weeks since Chicago had its bye week. I wrote last week that I wanted to see more of a sample before believing in the Bears’ rushing improvements. They went on to put together another excellent showing, even if Caleb Williams and the passing game remain a real work in progress.
This is a favorable matchup for the Chicago rushing game given that Baltimore’s defense has been quite bad. Even as the Baltimore defense generally gets healthier, the lack of interior presence without Nnamdi Madubuike has made them vulnerable against the run. But what happens if the Bears have to play from behind? And what happens once the Bears stop being plus-3 in turnover margin every week? Chicago’s defense is forcing turnovers at a totally unsustainable 23.9 percent rate. As much as Baltimore is a difficult team to price right now, and the Bears could run the ball well, this is an all-in spot for the Ravens at home, and I’m holding my nose and hoping the injury report turns out OK.
Verdict: Bet Ravens –6.5
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (–14.5)
The Colts’ complete demolition of the Chargers defense on Sunday has prompted the national NFL media and betting markets to finally see the Colts as a serious contender. Indianapolis entered last week as the eighth-highest-rated team by betting odds—now it is fifth. Tennessee has retained its last-place spot.
Indianapolis’s offensive statistics are staggering. Not only are they on pace to be one of the best offenses of the quarter century, but their run game is also more than twice as efficient (0.16 EPA per play) as the second-best rushing offense in the NFL (0.07). Jonathan Taylor is running away with the Offensive Player of the Year award right now, and the Titans’ run defense has been a major problem. Some teams get a new-coach bump in their first game after firing the old coach. For Tennessee last week, it was more like a bump for one quarter. After taking a 10-3 lead on New England, Tennessee faded quickly. Cam Ward is taking a lot of sacks and turning the ball over often, and he actually has worse numbers than Will Levis did at this point in his career. The defense also lost L’Jarius Sneed and Jeffrey Simmons to injuries, and neither will play this week. Those are two of the Titans’ most important defensive players, so I don’t know how they’re going to get any stops.
The Colts defense has flaws and lacks a true pass rush, but Tennessee can’t exploit any of its weaknesses. The Colts should have no problems getting to 31 points.
Verdict: Bet Colts team total over 30.5 (–110)
Thursday Night Football
Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Chargers (–3.5)
The biggest weakness for Minnesota defensively has been its struggle to stop the run. However, the Chargers can’t really exploit that given their current limitations. Los Angeles had 10 carries by running backs for just 23 yards in its loss to the Colts last week. Injuries to the offensive line will make it difficult to move the ball on the ground yet again. The one-dimensional nature of the offense puts a ton of pressure on Justin Herbert and the pass catchers to execute at a really high level. Brian Flores remains elite at dialing up pressure and putting offensive lines in conflict.
While Minnesota’s defense gave up a ton of explosive plays over the top to the Eagles on Sunday, the Vikings were actually pretty good on a down-to-down basis. The Eagles offense finished with the 24th-best success rate of the 30 teams that played in Week 7. Maybe Herbert can replicate the success of Jalen Hurts in hitting big plays, but the Chargers' offensive line is way more limited than the Eagles', and the Chargers’ skill room isn’t nearly as talented as the Eagles’ either.
On the other side of the ball, the Chargers’ bend-but-don’t-break style of defense has done a lot more breaking than bending in the past three weeks. The Commanders, Dolphins, and Colts moved the ball up and down the field against L.A. with relative ease and combined for 102 points. Unless the Chargers really tighten up near the end zone and Minnesota’s offense continues its red zone woes from Sunday, the Vikings have the easier path on paper to offensive success.
The line has moved from Chargers –2.5 across the key number of –3, and now I’m willing to bet against the Chargers at –3.5.
Verdict: Bet Vikings +3.5
The Rest of the Slate
Miami Dolphins at Atlanta Falcons (–7.5)
It’s going to take everything in me not to hold my nose and bet the Dolphins this week. I know that Tua Tagovailoa was a disaster on the road in adverse conditions against an elite defense in Cleveland in Week 7. That was predictable given his checkered history in bad weather. But this is an indoor game and a vastly different matchup. It’s not like we haven’t seen the Dolphins move the ball. They scored at least 21 points in their five games prior to last week, and at least 27 in three of those.
Before the Cleveland debacle, the Dolphins ranked 12th in EPA per drive and 18th in passing success rate. It hasn’t been a terrible offense, and even in the first game since the Tyreek Hill injury, Miami moved the ball up and down the field against the Chargers.
The main question in handicapping this game is asking yourself how much you really believe in the early-season Atlanta defensive numbers. The Falcons have a real pass rush, are near the top of the league in most of the important defensive metrics, and rank sixth in DVOA (schedule adjusted).
Then there’s also the question of: How in the world do the Dolphins slow down Bijan Robinson? It’s ultimately tempting to bet Miami +7.5 but easier to sit this one out.
Verdict: Lean Dolphins +7.5
Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots (–7)
If you can stop the run, you can easily stop the Browns. Cleveland had 206 yards total last week and scored 31 points thanks to Tua Tagovailoa’s interceptions, but the whole offense is reliant on being able to feed Quinshon Judkins. New England has an elite run defense that stifled Buffalo two weeks ago, and the Patriots are third in EPA per rush allowed. I wish Dillon Gabriel luck trying to drop back and win a game playing from behind on the road.
Verdict: Pass
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (–7)
The Eagles were a 7.5-point road favorite against the Giants two weeks ago without their most important defensive player (Jalen Carter), so there has been a significant market adjustment toward New York for this line to now be Philly –7 at home. The Eagles' total inability to run the ball this season is one of the most surprising developments of the first seven weeks. Even against bad run defenses like the Giants and Vikings, Philly wasn’t able to reliably keep the chains moving on the ground. As a result, the Eagles went hunting for big plays against Minnesota on Sunday. It worked, as Jalen Hurts had one of his best games of his career, and the Eagles got a pick-six against Carson Wentz to help seal the win.
When you zoom out, though, let’s take stock of where these two offenses are thus far. I’m only going to use the Jaxson Dart data for the Giants (Weeks 4-7).
Giants vs. Eagles Offensive Rankings
It’s a small sample, and I’m not saying the Giants are a better offense than the Eagles, but the Eagles offense certainly has real issues to sort out. The first game between these two was a bit weird because Quinyon Mitchell went down early with an injury, and the Giants converted 11 of 16 on third down.
Verdict: Pass
Buffalo Bills at Carolina Panthers (+7.5)
With Bryce Young out, it’s worth asking how much of a difference there actually is between him and Andy Dalton. Young has certainly improved from the version of him that was benched early in 2024, but most of the progress on the 2025 Panthers has come on the defensive side of the ball. Dalton's and Young’s EPA-per-play numbers in the last two seasons are almost identical.
We just watched the Bills offense really struggle in consecutive games against the Patriots and Falcons, in large part because the run game wasn’t efficient. Josh Allen is obviously the primary driver of the Bills offense, but the offensive line and early-down rushing success are major reasons why Buffalo has been so consistent since Joe Brady became offensive coordinator in 2023. Buffalo has the fourth-highest early-down run rate in the league. Last season, they would have run all over Carolina, as the Panthers finished 2024 as by far the worst run defense in the NFL. This year? It might be tougher. The Panthers are healthier up front and rank third in run defense DVOA.
Verdict: Bet Panthers +7.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (+4.5)
Given its injury crisis, Tampa Bay playing a second consecutive road game on a short week makes the team borderline unbettable for me. The market opened Tampa –6.5 and has taken consistent Saints action all week long. Baker Mayfield had a very mediocre showing last week against a bad Lions secondary, so this feels like a game where everyone expects the Bucs to bounce back, but they’re just as likely to come out flat yet again in a tough divisional road game. The Tampa running game has not been consistent, none of the team’s top receivers are healthy, and now Mayfield has popped up on the injury report.
Verdict: Lean Saints +4.5
San Francisco 49ers at Houston Texans (–1.5)
The Texans offense was already one of the worst in the NFL, and now Nico Collins has a concussion that will likely keep him out this week. In some ways, this matchup is a relief for C.J. Stroud because the 49ers lost Bryce Huff (and Nick Bosa before that) and won’t be able to generate a ton of easy pressure on the Texans QB. However, without Collins, the entire skill-position group is unproven and unreliable for Houston. The Texans offense has essentially played five good quarters all season, and those came against Tennessee and the Ravens’ skeleton unit. No matter what you think of the 49ers’ current defense—and I don’t think much—it’s hard to justify Houston having much offensive success.
On the other side of this matchup, the return of George Kittle makes a major difference for the 49ers’ run offense. They’ve been running Christian McCaffrey into the ground with handoffs and short passes, but this offense seriously lacks explosiveness. I’m going back to the well with yet another Texans under after taking last week off.
Verdict: Bet under 41.5
Washington Commanders at Kansas City Chiefs (–11.5)
The look-ahead line for this game was Kansas City –5.5, and we’ve now had a full six-point move to the current line of Kansas City –11.5. Some of this is due to the Jayden Daniels hamstring injury that happened last week, but the rest is a correction to the market after two extremely lopsided results in Week 7. The Chiefs on Sunday had the most comprehensive performance of any NFL team this season, smothering the Raiders offense and scoring 31 points on their first five possessions before sitting on the lead.
Meanwhile, the Commanders offense looks more and more like a shell of its 2024 version due to inconsistent quarterback play and injuries. Without Deebo Samuel and Terry McLaurin, the Commanders scored on only two of their eight possessions against Dallas before Daniels went out in the third quarter.
Washington doesn’t have anyone on its offense who can beat man coverage consistently right now. And now that the Chiefs offense is capable of being more explosive again, the Commanders’ issues with giving up big plays become a major weakness.
Verdict: Pass
The Favorite Five:
Ravens –6.5
Jets +6.5
Cowboys +3.5
Packers-Steelers over 44.5
Colts team total over 30.5
Other Bets:
Vikings +3.5
Niners-Texans under 41.5
Panthers +7.5
