Through five weeks of football, none of the NFL’s top teams look like they’re really separating from the pack and establishing themselves as truly elite. The Bills and Eagles are the Super Bowl favorites right now, but they just lost at home to the Patriots and Broncos, respectively. The Chiefs are 2-3, while the Ravens are 1-4 and still in the midst of an injury crisis.
Everyone in the NFL has already suffered at least one loss. Week 5 was truly the week of parity, as the Cardinals, Rams, and Bills lost games at home as favorites of a touchdown or more.
Now, in Week 6, the Vikings and Texans have bye weeks, leaving 15 games spread across seven different viewing times. Monday night doubleheaders are back, but at least the matchups are fun this time!
Here are all my thoughts on the entire Week 6 slate, starting with the bets I’ve made already. (All lines from FanDuel as of Thursday morning.)
The Favorite Five
I’ll be highlighting my favorite five picks each week throughout the season, which will serve as a preview for my picks on The Ringer 107—a season-long contest between The Bill Simmons Podcast, The Ringer NFL Show, The Ringer Gambling Show, and The Ringer Fantasy Football Show. I’ll be partnering with Cousin Sal to make the Gambling Show’s Friday picks.
New England Patriots at New Orleans Saints (+3.5)
The Saints don’t get enough credit for not being as bad as people anticipated they’d be. I get that the national media isn’t going to sing the praises of a 1-4 football team, but I will. New Orleans has been decidedly mediocre this season, which is obviously not good … but also not that bad! The Saints are 22nd in offensive EPA per drive and 21st in defensive EPA per drive. Spencer Rattler is 14th in success rate among 32 quarterbacks this season.
During the first four weeks of the season, the Saints had the ball late in the fourth quarter with a chance to score a touchdown and beat the Cardinals and 49ers, and they trailed the Bills by only nine with seven minutes to play. None of those results came to fruition, but New Orleans has been consistently underrated by the betting markets this season, as shown by its ability to keep games close against superior foes.
After beating the Giants as small favorites last week, New Orleans gets a second straight home game, this time as an underdog of more than a field goal against New England. It’s also the second consecutive road game for the Patriots following a massive divisional road win. From an old-school handicapping perspective, the Saints are a classic bet-on team here.
Even after the markets upgraded New England considerably following its impressive win on Sunday, it’s hard to make the Pats more than a three-point favorite on the road. The Patriots have one of the league’s worst rushing offenses, meaning the pressure is on Drake Maye to continue executing the passing game at a very high level. Maye has shown clear improvement this season, but if you agree that the Saints are merely mediocre and not outright terrible, there’s value on them at +3.5 on Sunday.
Verdict: Bet Saints +3.5
Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers (+3)
The betting odds have moved against Dallas on game day each of the past two weeks. The Cowboys spent most of last week as a favorite against the Jets, but on Sunday, that line flipped. It turns out the people who had that anti-Dallas view and the ability to shape market sentiment were incorrect, as Dak Prescott put up another efficient offensive display en route to an easy Dallas win.
Dallas is third in offensive success rate and, perhaps most surprisingly, third in rushing success rate. The Cowboys brought in Klayton Adams as offensive coordinator from Arizona this year, and the two teams’ running games have moved in completely opposite directions. Even without CeeDee Lamb, who is unlikely to play in this game, the Cowboys have a major advantage in offensive efficiency here.
The question is: Can Carolina re-create last week’s rushing performance to stay in the game? I think it can. I’m not sure if the former Cowboys running back Rico Dowdle qualifies for a revenge game, but Dallas’s run defense remains among the league’s worst. It’s the lowest-ranked run defense by success rate.
With a bottom-five defense on the road laying a field goal, I’ll be holding my nose and betting Carolina on Sunday. You can’t be afraid to look like an idiot betting on the NFL—I do it all the time. For the second consecutive week, I’m on both the Saints’ and Panthers’ bandwagons. What could go wrong? (A lot.)
Verdict: Bet Panthers +3
San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (–3)
Since the season-ending injury to Nick Bosa, the 49ers have posted back-to-back weeks with a pressure rate below 30 percent. Even against the banged-up Buccaneers offensive line, the Niners may not be able to rattle Baker Mayfield.
Mayfield is playing at an elite level right now, and he’s been hyper-efficient in the clutch. I still don’t know how the Bucs continue to overcome their mediocre early-down success rate (they’re ranked 23rd), but they’ve now found huge explosive plays in three consecutive weeks to make this offense tick. Given the limitations of the Niners defense, you have to like the Bucs’ chance of repeating this plan in Week 6.
Against the Rams last week, San Francisco pulled off one of the most shocking results of the season thanks to a stellar passing performance from Mac Jones and some silly mistakes by Los Angeles. It will be hard for the Niners to run the ball against this excellent Tampa Bay front, but there are plenty of holes to exploit in the Bucs secondary.
This game could come down to who has the ball last, like most Tampa Bay games have this season. The spread seems about right to me at three, but the total is too low at just 47.5 given the quality of these two offenses and the questions about both secondaries.
Verdict: Bet over 47.5
Buffalo Bills at Atlanta Falcons (+4.5)
The Bills aren’t close to operating at peak efficiency right now. The defense is average in success rate (16th) through five weeks, and that’s with two outlier games (one good vs. the Jets, one bad vs. the Ravens) in the sample. It’s also bottom five in explosive play rate allowed and now potentially without defensive tackle Ed Oliver (again), linebacker Matt Milano, and multiple other key contributors.
Both these defenses have struggled mightily to stop the run and rank in the bottom 10 in rushing success rate allowed, and that’s a problem for both in this matchup. Atlanta will be rested and prepared coming off a bye, and the soft middle in this Buffalo defense feels open for Bijan Robinson to exploit. However, Buffalo can always rely on James Cook and its excellent offensive line to stay ahead of the chains.
I predict Atlanta will produce enough explosive plays to keep this game close and down to the final possession. One really encouraging change for the Falcons offense is that it finally let Michael Penix Jr. use his special arm talent down the field, putting an end to the checkdown circus that plagued Atlanta’s opening three weeks.
Verdict: Bet over 49.5, and bet Falcons +4.5
Seattle Seahawks at Jacksonville Jaguars (–1.5)
This might finally be the time to sell high on Jacksonville following the Jaguars’ dramatic Monday Night Football win at home against the Chiefs. The Chiefs moved the ball up and down the field all night long and posted the single-highest success rate by any offense in any game this season. It wasn’t enough, though, as Jacksonville produced a critical 99-yard pick-six to swing the game, adding to its remarkable run of turnover generation in the opening five games of the season. The Jaguars have four more turnovers forced than every other team in the NFL.
If you remove turnovers from the sample, the Jaguars defense is just 23rd in EPA per play, which further highlights how much this unit has benefited from opponent miscues.
The Seahawks defense got torched through the air last week by Baker Mayfield, but they were shorthanded. Mike Macdonald said that he expects both corner Devon Witherspoon and edge DeMarcus Lawrence to return to practice this week. While I don’t expect Julian Love to return yet, those are two of Seattle’s most important defensive players back in the mix.
Verdict: Bet Seahawks +1.5
Thursday Night Football
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (+7.5)
Philadelphia is entering Week 6 dead last in three-and-out rate, first in punt rate, 18th in EPA per play, and 29th in explosive play rate. The blueprint is out on how to stop the Eagles, especially while their rushing game is struggling and their offensive line hasn’t been as dominant. Jalen Hurts has improved considerably against the blitz, and the offense is still good against man coverage, but the Super Bowl MVP is having trouble against zone coverage. When teams load the box, don’t bring pressure, and drop into zones, the Eagles offense can’t stay consistent. The Giants love to play man coverage on the back end, but I imagine they can see what is painfully obvious to all of us watching football every Sunday.
The Eagles offense is a flummoxing group, and the struggles are having an impact on the defense, too. The defense floundered in the second half of each of the past two games because it was worn down; the offense failed to keep possession for more than a couple of minutes at a time. Denver scored 18 fourth-quarter points to steal the game last week, and Tampa Bay nearly mounted a 20-point comeback the week before that with multiple explosive plays.
Nevertheless, I’m taking the end-of-game chaos out of the mix with my bet in this matchup. I trust the Eagles not to turn the ball over and force the Giants to drive the field. That’s where the limitations of this Giants offense come into play: Since New York doesn’t have a true top receiving option, the Eagles will be able to take away the middle of the field and make offense very difficult for rookie Jaxson Dart. The Giants have scored on the first drive of each of their first two games with Dart, but that’ll end on Thursday night.
Verdict: Bet Giants team total under 7.5 first half
The Rest of the Slate
Denver Broncos vs. New York Jets (+7.5, in London)
So far, I’ve managed to avoid the tomfoolery of betting on these 9:30 a.m. ET international games. And it’s going to take everything in me not to bet the Jets catching more than a touchdown here. The problem with the Jets in this matchup is that I really don’t want any part of Justin Fields in a down game. When the Jets are forced out of their running game when playing from behind, it’s extremely dicey to have any faith in Fields and this offense.
They also don’t play football like a well-coached unit. There have been constant mental and physical mistakes on the field, ranging from schematics to turnovers. I like plenty in the Week 6 card, but the Jets don’t quite pass muster for me—even if I think the price is a bit inflated on Denver following its massive late comeback last week.
Fun fact: If you combine success rate on offense and defense, these two teams are fourth (Broncos) and fifth (Jets) overall. That shows just how much the Jets have shot themselves in the foot—and how much they’ve boosted their numbers in garbage time.
Verdict: Lean Jets +7.5
Arizona Cardinals at Indianapolis Colts (–6.5)
The Colts opened as a 4.5-point favorite at home and were quickly bet out to 6.5 by Tuesday. There’s no team in the NFL for which you have to throw out your priors more than the 2025 Colts. The massive coordinator upgrade on the defensive side (Lou Anarumo) has made them considerably better on third down, even with holes in the secondary. And the offense is moving the ball with as much ease as any other in the NFL. The Colts would have scored at least 27 points in every game this season if not for AD Mitchell inexcusably dropping the ball when running into the end zone in Los Angeles in Week 4.
How will Arizona keep up with the Colts offense in this game? Indianapolis has been a bit vulnerable defensively on the ground, but the Cardinals haven’t had any semblance of a running game this year. The Cardinals have been incredibly reliant on third downs to keep the chains moving, which is a big problem against the Colts defense.
The Colts have the highest early-down success rate in the NFL. Arizona is 31st, which is far, far worse than the Raiders (15th), who got smoked in Indy last week. The Cardinals’ fumbles were major contributors to their downfall on Sunday against Tennessee, but the offense also had only middling success rates.
At –6 or better, I’d lay the points with Indianapolis on Sunday in this matchup of 2022 Eagles coordinators turned head coaches.
Verdict: Lean Colts –6.5, bet at –6
Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins (+4.5)
Two teams that I’m generally looking to bet against right now. The Dolphins have lost the underlying box score in all five of their games (they beat the Jets due to turnover luck) and have a case as a bottom-three team in the NFL without Tyreek Hill. But how am I supposed to lay points with this version of the Chargers? Los Angeles hasn’t been able to block anyone for two consecutive weeks, and Justin Herbert is taking a ton of hits and is under constant duress as a result.
The Chargers have issues on both sides of the trench, and this is the easiest pass on the board. I could be convinced into an ugly under, but there are better games to bet, especially with Tua Tagovailoa popping up on the Wednesday injury report.
Verdict: Pass
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (–5.5)
This is the schedule spot from hell for the Browns. Not only is Cleveland traveling back from London, but this is the third consecutive travel game since the Browns were in Detroit on September 28. With the line sitting at 5.5, however, you’re clearly paying a tax if you want to bet on Pittsburgh due to the spot. From a trends perspective, head coach Mike Tomlin has historically been excellent off a bye (8-0 straight up, 6-2 against the spread), but Tomlin is 12-26-1 ATS as a favorite of four or more since 2017, per Action Network. From a matchup perspective, the Browns offense should be able to run the ball effectively against Pittsburgh, and Dillon Gabriel’s debut at quarterback was the Browns’ most efficient offensive game of the season, solely because they did not turn the ball over.
It’s evident that Kevin Stefanski is planning to lean on the run game as much as possible with Gabriel in the lineup.
Cleveland’s Early-Down Rush Percentage by Week
The Browns had the luxury of playing from ahead or being tied for most of Gabriel’s debut. What happens if they fall behind and he’s forced to throw the ball downfield? I suspect there’s a much higher risk of turnovers in this game state, especially when you compare Gabriel to Aaron Rodgers, who is refusing to hold the ball for more than 2.5 seconds on almost all of his dropbacks.
Verdict: Lean under 38.5
Los Angeles Rams at Baltimore Ravens (+7.5)
I’ve been burned in consecutive weeks by backing Baltimore’s incredibly terrible defense, and I am tapping out from any further involvement with this beaten and broken football team. Baltimore made a very interesting trade this week, trading edge Odafe Oweh to the Chargers for safety Alohi Gilman. The defense could get multiple players back from injuries this week, but it still won’t be anything close to full strength. Here are the bottom five defenses in EPA per drive allowed over the past three weeks. The Ravens haven’t just bottomed out; they’ve dug themselves into the Mariana Trench.
28. Bengals –0.69
29. Jets –0.69
30. Dolphins –0.92
31. Cowboys –1.08
32. Ravens –1.68
Baltimore feels like a team that absolutely can’t wait to get to the bye next week, and I’d consider backing the Rams here if the Ravens’ injury situation continues to be anything close to what it is now.
Verdict: Lean Rams –7.5
Tennessee Titans at Las Vegas Raiders (–5.5)
The Raiders’ offensive line issues are compounded by the loss of left tackle Kolton Miller, and Geno Smith’s quarterback play this season has been diabolically bad. As bad as the Raiders have been, I’m sure as hell not going to bet on Brian Callahan’s Titans, who just got their first win of the season and only their fourth cover in 23 games thanks to some of the most incompetent football I’ve ever seen from the Arizona Cardinals in the final 20 minutes of that game.
I’d be more inclined to believe that Cam Ward’s fourth quarter was a super encouraging sign for him going forward if I hadn’t seen the Panthers and Saints do the exact same thing to this soft Arizona secondary. I’m still in wait-and-see mode with his development.
Verdict: Pass
Cincinnati Bengals at Green Bay Packers (–14.5)
Anyone who thinks Joe Flacco might revitalize the Bengals offense hasn’t really watched Flacco play football in the last calendar year. Last season’s Colts offense—with mostly the same players and coach as this season’s unit—was completely mediocre and unable to run the ball when Flacco played. Now with Daniel Jones, the Colts offense looks like a supernova. Yes, Cleveland doesn’t have the same superstar wide receiver talent that Cincinnati does, but the 40-year-old Flacco had the lowest success rate of any starting quarterback in the league in the first four weeks.
The Flacco move reeks of panic from the Bengals, who were desperate to try anything after Jake Browning kept throwing interception after interception. But Flacco threw six interceptions in the first four games of this season. I find it pretty telling that the line is exactly the same on Wednesday post-trade as it was on Tuesday pre-trade. I’d bet Green Bay at anything 14 or below, but I’d be surprised if it ever got that low.
Verdict: Lean Packers, bet at –14 or better
Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs (–2.5)
The total for this game opened at 48.5 on Monday morning and moved up multiple points after the wide-open Chiefs-Jaguars game later that evening. I bet the over early in the week and discussed it on Monday’s Ringer Gambling Show, but the total is now too high to still have value in betting it. The Chiefs remain more methodical than explosive, and that makes it hard to justify betting an over on a total this high.
The Chiefs posted a 68.3 percent success rate on Monday, the highest of any team in Week 5 by a wide margin, but they still lost due to a costly Patrick Mahomes pick-six and some late-game Trevor Lawrence heroics. The market has immediately taken notice of the Chiefs’ consecutive games with excellent offensive metrics and bumped them up considerably in power ratings.
I know that most of the Bengals’ offensive success against the Lions last week came in garbage time, but it’s still meaningful that the Detroit secondary let Cincinnati move the ball so easily in the second half.
Verdict: Lean Chiefs –2.5
Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders (–4.5)
The most encouraging stat for Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson through four games is sack rate. Last year, the Bears had the highest sack rate in the NFL, at 10.7 percent. So far, they’ve cut that by more than half. Williams is doing a much better job of eliminating some of the negative plays from this offense. It hasn’t always been pretty in the opening month, but last week’s bye was a perfect time to continue developing the connection and timing of the unit. We could also see some new wrinkles. The Bears’ extra rest entering this week is priced into the number, but it could be especially important for a rookie coach like Johnson.
The Commanders defense played a stellar second half in last week’s comeback win against the Chargers, but it remains prone to explosive plays. I don’t love this matchup for a still shorthanded Chicago defense, but I’d back the Bears to go over their team total, especially if they end up in comeback mode and abandon the relatively ineffective running game.
Verdict: Lean Bears +4.5, and bet Bears team total over 22.5
Favorite Five:
Bills-Falcons over 49.5
49ers-Buccaneers over 47.5
Saints +3.5
Panthers +3
Seahawks +1.5
Other Bets:
Bears team total over 22.5
Falcons +4.5
