Which NFL Teams Are True Contenders—and Which Are Just Pretenders?
A month into the season, we finally have enough film and data to determine which teams have a chance of winning a Super Bowl and which are just acting like they do. Where do the Eagles, Ravens, Chiefs, and others fall on that spectrum?
The 2025 NFL season seems like it just started, yet for a handful of teams, it’s already over. The Saints, Titans, and Jets are 0-4 and should be looking ahead to next year’s draft. The Panthers, Browns, Raiders, and Giants seem dead in the water, too. But while the first month of the season may have broken those teams, others still have reason to believe that this year could be the year. At this point, we have a full month of game tape to analyze and pick apart—so we can determine who’s really in the running via a classic game of contender or pretender. To whittle down the field, I’m looking only at teams that either currently hold a top-seven seed in the AFC or NFC or have Super Bowl odds greater than 20-to-1. That means that I’ve left out several teams that made the playoffs last season, like the Broncos, Vikings, and Texans. If any of those fan bases have an issue with that choice, they can take it up with the oddsmakers.
I’ve sorted the remaining group of 16 teams into four tiers: the top contenders, the top challengers to those contenders, the teams that still have an outside chance thanks to their quarterbacks, and everyone else. Let’s start with the top tier, where we have the two remaining unbeaten teams.
The Top Contenders
Buffalo Bills (4-0, Super Bowl Odds: +430)
I wonder how we’d feel about Buffalo if Derrick Henry hadn’t fumbled late in the Bills-Ravens opener and provided Josh Allen a way back into the game. I’m sure we’d still be raving about the Bills offense, which leads the NFL in points per drive and EPA, but I think there’d be more concern about the defense, which has statistically been a below-average unit against a light schedule of offenses. Buffalo’s pass coverage has been pretty good so far, so the run defense is to blame for the underwhelming results. The Bills are giving up 5.5 yards per designed run—only the Giants and Bears have been more generous. They’re allowing explosive plays on 16.5 percent of their defensive snaps against the run. That leads the league by a hefty margin. They rank 24th in success rate, so teams aren’t padding their numbers with long gains. Buffalo’s run defense is bending and breaking.
To his credit, coach Sean McDermott isn’t just sitting around and waiting for things to improve. He’s throwing plenty against the wall—it just isn’t sticking. For instance: Over the past few years, Buffalo has played nickel almost exclusively. Even when offenses fielded an extra tight end or running back, McDermott wouldn’t budge. In 2025, though, the Bills have been in base defense (with only four defensive backs on the field) on over 20 percent of their snaps, excluding short-yardage situations, per TruMedia. In the three previous seasons, that number was at 2.9 percent. McDermott is also sending more blitzes. While we often think of blitzes as a pass defense, there are run blitzes, too, and Buffalo is using those at the league’s sixth-highest rate, per Pro Football Focus. Those should put the second level of the defense in a better position to make tackles, and with linebackers filling more of those spots, you’d expect tackling to improve. It hasn’t. The Bills are missing a lot of tackles and allowing a ridiculous 4.9 yards per rush after contact. McDermott is putting his guys in position to defend the run, but he can’t make the tackles for them.
This unit is the one reason to fade the Bills as Super Bowl contenders, but Buffalo has everything else you’re looking for in a title threat. Allen is playing the best football of his life, and Buffalo’s rushing attack looks unstoppable. Even with a leaky run defense, the Bills could win a championship.
Philadelphia Eagles (4-0, Super Bowl Odds: +600)
The Eagles just keep on winning, which has put off a serious discussion about the state of their offense. Well, unless you’re A.J. Brown, who sent out a cryptic tweet after Sunday’s win over the Buccaneers, then on Wednesday denied that the post was aimed at anybody directly and said that he sent it to vent his frustration with the offense. “I think it’s normal to have frustrations because of the standard we hold ourselves to,” Brown said. “We have a lot of talent on offense, and to be honest, defense and special teams have been low-key carrying us.”
I’d push back on one thing Brown said there: It hasn’t been that low-key. The defending champs would not be undefeated and sitting in this section if not for the defense and special teams. Jalen Hurts threw for 253 yards combined in Philly’s first two wins over Kansas City and Dallas. They went into halftime against the Rams with negative-1 passing yards before a second-half explosion, which still would have resulted in a loss if the defense hadn’t locked L.A. down in the second half and Jalen Carter hadn’t blocked the game-winning field goal. The offense finished with negative-1 yard in the second half of Sunday’s win over the Bucs. These aren’t the kinds of numbers you typically associate with a Super Bowl contender. I have the same question that Brown posed two weeks ago: Is this sustainable?
I think that the answer is no, but Philadelphia’s status as a contender isn’t based on what we’re seeing from the offense right now. It’s based on an idea of what it can be. There’s been a lot of consternation about the passing game, which has covered up for the fact that the run kind of stinks now. Saquon Barkley is averaging just 3.1 yards per carry. His advanced efficiency metrics are back to where they were when he was in New York. And he’s not getting much help from the vaunted Eagles offensive line, which is providing him with just 0.7 yards before contact on his average carry, down from 1.1 in 2024, per TruMedia.
Saquon Barkley’s Last Five Seasons (TruMedia)
If the Eagles pass game is going to get fixed and satisfy Brown, they’ll have to fix the run game first. It’s the threat of that rushing attack that forces the defense into the looks Hurts thrives against. Philadelphia isn’t seeing many of those right now. The offense is getting Cover 1 on over 6 percent of its snaps this season. That number was over 20 percent a season ago, when Hurts generated 47.2 EPA (out of his 55.5 total EPA) against that one coverage. Until defenses feel the need to put an extra defender in the box again, Philly’s passing game may be stuck in its current rut.
But there are no strong challengers to Philly in the NFC East, so the Eagles have the time to work through these problems. If Nick Sirianni, offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo, and offensive line coach and run game coordinator Jeff Stoutland can just shock the run game and Barkley back to life, this team will have a shot at repeating.
The Top Challengers … and the Chiefs
Detroit Lions (3-1, Super Bowl Odds: +900)
The further we get from it, the more Detroit’s opening week loss in Green Bay seems like a fluke. The Lions looked bad in that game in all the ways we thought they might after they lost both of their coordinators and some key pieces from the interior offensive line. Against the Packers, the run game was disjointed, and the defense made mistakes all over the field. But since then, the Lions have returned to the powerhouse team that steamrolled its way to a 15-2 record last season. Even after losing the opener by 14, they own the NFL’s best point differential. The offense is breaking records, Jared Goff is second in EPA per dropback, and the defense ranks fourth in success rate. First-year coordinators John Morton, who calls the offense, and Kelvin Sheppard, who calls the defense, haven’t shifted the philosophies of their respective units, either.
The offense is still powered by explosive plays, thanks to a run game that sets Goff up to take big swings. And like Aaron Glenn before him, Sheppard is calling for a lot of man coverage and isn’t afraid to dial up a blitz in obvious passing situations. Little has changed in Detroit, and that includes this team’s status as a championship contender. But that also that means the Lions will still be leaning on Goff to get them through the playoffs. The QB has improved his mobility in and out of the pocket, which could help him come January. But it seems like any defense that moves him off his spot consistently could knock the Lions out, and there will be plenty of those units in the playoff field. That’s really the only thing keeping Detroit from jumping up to the tier above.
Green Bay Packers (2-1-1, Super Bowl Odds: +900)
The Packers have gone two weeks without a win, but I’m not ready to bail on this team. When they’re playing at their best, they could be the top team in the NFC. We’ve already seen the Packers hammer Detroit, and Philadelphia’s offense is in complete disarray at the moment. The problem is that we haven’t seen Green Bay at its best since the Week 2 win over Washington. The offensive line has been banged up, with guard Aaron Banks and tackle Zach Tom missing games against the Cowboys and Commanders. The line cost the Packers the Browns game—they could not block Myles Garrett and Co., and coach Matt LaFleur may have overcorrected with conservative play calling that got the ball out of Jordan Love’s hands quickly. Green Bay wasn’t able to land a knockout blow, and Cleveland hung around long enough to steal a win.
Pass protection wasn’t an issue against Dallas. The Packers defense, which had looked like an elite unit before last Sunday night, was picked apart by Dak Prescott. I wish I had a more significant bit of analysis from that game, but it was really just a case of Dak being incredible and the Packers not being able to keep up. Green Bay got pressure on Prescott, put him in precarious situations, and forced him to make highly difficult throws throughout the night. He just came through nearly every time he needed to. Against most quarterbacks on most nights, it would have been a runaway win for the Packers.
Micah Parsons had a similar take on the game: "You look at how precise no. 4 looked tonight, just getting through his throws, getting to his receivers, the timing," he said of Prescott. "I think he played a better game than we played defense. So, you know, shout-out to Dak, and I told him, I said, 'You go watch that film. You lucky, if you wasn't on your shit, it would've been a long day, it would've been a real long day for you.’”
The Packers will be fine. Their offensive line should get healthy soon, and they won’t see another top-line quarterback until they play Lamar Jackson and the Ravens in late December. They do get the Eagles next month, which will provide them with another chance to show that they can hold up against a strong defensive line and a talented offense. The bookmakers have Green Bay as the third favorite in the NFC, but I’ll push it to the top of the list of contenders if more evidence confirms that the last two weeks were flukes.
Kansas City Chiefs (2-2, Super Bowl Odds: +1000)
I think that all of our collective complaining finally got the Chiefs to push the ball downfield in the passing game. Don’t ever let someone tell you that internet nagging doesn’t lead to anything. Even if the football-watching public won’t get credit for it, Patrick Mahomes’s average depth of target is over 8 yards for the first time since 2020. That was back before Tyreek Hill was traded and defenses started spamming two-high shells against Kansas City. Unfortunately, that higher aDOT hasn’t really fixed the Chiefs’ offensive problems. Mahomes's EPA and yards-per-dropback averages are identical to what he had last year, and his dropback success rate is down significantly. Even if the 37-20 win over Baltimore was a step in the right direction, the overall results suggest that the offense still has plenty of room for growth. The Ravens defense was also severely shorthanded in that game, so I’d like to see the Chiefs find the same success against the surprisingly good Jaguars defense on Monday night before we confirm that they’re all the way back—or even close to it.
Sunday’s increased usage of under-center formations was a positive sign of growth for Andy Reid’s unit, though. I’d like to see the veteran coach continue to put Mahomes under center more often, which could serve two purposes: (1) It should make the run game harder to defend and the offense less reliant on run-pass options, which aren’t efficient plays, and (2) it should draw more defenders into the box, which will improve the deep passing game. Reid has said that the team is trying to work those formations into the game plan more often …
But the team’s shotgun rate is up over last year. Don’t gaslight us, Andy. Put Mahomes under center, and let him sling the ball downfield. I don’t know whether that’s the team’s best path back to the Super Bowl, but it would be a lot more fun to watch.
Anyway, I’m including the Chiefs in the group of contenders because they’re the goddamn Chiefs. As long as Mahomes is upright—and Reid and Steve Spagnuolo are devising the game plans—they’ll have a chance to play deep into the postseason. Winning it all seems far-fetched at the moment, but we’ve said similar things about them in the past, only to watch them lift the Lombardi Trophy a few months later.
Can Beat Anyone, as Long as Their Quarterbacks Are Healthy
Baltimore Ravens (1-3, Super Bowl Odds: +1100)
Los Angeles Chargers (3-1, Super Bowl Odds: +1600)
I’m grouping these two teams together because they’re both quarterbacked by guys who desperately need deep postseason runs to detoxify the discourse around them. Unfortunately, both are playing on teams that sadly look cooked after suffering a few too many injuries. But I refuse to write them off completely. Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert are as good as any quarterback in the league, and they can beat any team when they bring their A games.
If I had to banish one of these teams to the “pretender” realm, it would probably be Baltimore. The defense is broken beyond repair, and the latest rash of injuries could destroy it completely. Nnamdi Madubuike, who’s missed the last two games, is now out for the season, and Marlon Humphrey, Nate Wiggins, and Roquan Smith all missed Wednesday’s practice. Defensive coordinator Zach Orr looks like he’s in over his head at the moment and will be working with spare parts for the next few weeks. Plus, with Jackson possibly missing the next game due to a hamstring injury, Baltimore isn’t even satisfying the condition I laid out in the header of this section. The Ravens’ schedule does offer some hope, though. After their bye in Week 7, they will likely be favored in every game up until their Week 17 trip to Lambeau Field.
Meanwhile, in L.A.: Even if the Chargers had escaped New York with a win over the reeling Giants, I would have felt uncomfortable putting them in a higher tier. Left tackle Joe Alt’s high ankle sprain, which will likely keep him out of Sunday’s game against Washington, is a big blow to the offensive line, which had already lost Rashan Slater for the season. The Chargers’ pass protection was a concern before Alt went down, with Herbert facing pressure on nearly half of his dropbacks over the last two weeks, and now it’s an unmistakable red flag. This year’s team is starting to resemble last year’s, which was led by an excellent defense and a quarterback who propped up its average offense. That could be enough to get the Chargers back to the playoffs, but unless Herbert plays perfectly, it will be difficult for them to match up with the AFC’s best teams.
Los Angeles Rams (3-1, Super Bowl Odds: +1300)
We’re only four weeks into the season, but Matthew Stafford’s back looks good. If it remains good throughout the season, the Rams deserve to be in the “top challenger” tier. I’m just not confident that will remain the case. Sean McVay is doing everything in his power to keep his quarterback upright. He’s using under-center formations at the league’s highest rate and dialing up plenty of play-action, which helps take the teeth out of opposing pass rushes. This version of the Rams offense resembles the one McVay ran for Goff before the Rams traded for Stafford. It’s a sound system that’s enhanced by the presence of Puka Nacua, who might be the best receiver in the game right now, and Davante Adams, whose gravity prevents defenses from surrounding the Rams’ WR1 with coverage. If Stafford stays healthy, L.A. will score enough to contend.
But I have two concerns when it comes to this team, both of which led to the second-half meltdown in Philadelphia back in Week 3: The offensive line is still a mediocre unit when it comes to run blocking—and when defenses can shut down the Rams run game, protecting Stafford becomes more of a challenge—and the cornerback room is tiny and highly exploitable. Brown had his way with the Rams corners in the second half, and while most teams don’t have an A.J. Brown, teams in the playoffs will have more competent passing attacks that are able to exploit the group’s weaknesses.
Good but Not Good Enough (Which Is Just a Nice Way of Calling Them “Pretenders”)
San Francisco 49ers (3-1, Super Bowl Odds: +2200)
If it wasn’t clear on Sunday, it is now that Brock Purdy has been ruled out of Thursday’s game against the Rams: The 49ers quarterback is not healthy. And he’s not alone. San Francisco will also be without its top two receivers, Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings, and tight end George Kittle in Week 5. Trent Williams isn’t on the injury report, but I am placing him on Washed Watch after another mediocre performance in the loss to Jacksonville. And while Christian McCaffrey is still healthy, he’s leading the league in touches (100 through four games), which doesn’t seem sustainable for the injury-prone back. In a perfect world where you could turn injuries off, the Niners could contend in the NFC, but that’s not the world we live in.
Washington Commanders (2-2, Super Bowl Odds: +2500)
Kliff Kingsbury’s offense just keeps chugging along, even without quarterback Jayden Daniels. The run game, led by Bill Croskey-Merritt, has done most of the heavy lifting while Marcus Mariota has had to fill in at quarterback. Washington leads the league in rush success rate and ranks third in EPA per attempt, but the passing numbers have been mediocre. Even if Daniels’s return changes that, it won’t fix the defense, which has been the team’s main issue. Dan Quinn’s unit, which has struggled with communication, just got picked apart by the Falcons offense, which was shut out by Carolina the previous week. The Commanders are not playing championship-level defense. They’re not even playing playoff-level defense.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1, Super Bowl Odds: +3000)
It may seem like the oddsmakers are undervaluing the Buccaneers, who started 3-0 and played the defending champs tough in Tampa Bay’s only loss. But I’m with them: That 3-0 start required three late-game comebacks and a lot of turnover luck. Tampa Bay hadn’t committed a turnover before Week 4 even though Baker Mayfield ranks second in the NFL in turnover-worthy plays, with seven, per Pro Football Focus. Their late-game luck flipped against the Eagles. The Bucs turned it over twice, and Mayfield tossed an interception (and added two more turnover-worthy plays to his total) on a potential go-ahead drive in the fourth quarter. Now Tampa Bay sits at 3-1, with a perfectly mediocre point differential of 0. The Bucs have the 12th-ranked offense and 12th-ranked defense by EPA. They should get healthier along the offensive line, and Mike Evans should return soon, but there’s a significant gap between the Bucs, the NFC South leaders, and the top teams in the conference.
Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1, Super Bowl Odds: +3500)
The Jaguars are my current pick to win the AFC South, but I can’t go much further than that. Trevor Lawrence and the wide receiver corps are too inconsistent for me to put any faith in this offense. And while the defense has been surprisingly competent through the first month—ranking second in EPA allowed—it lacks talent and depth. I don’t know how sustainable that unit’s success is, especially as the team is losing defensive end Travon Walker for the next few weeks.
Seattle Seahawks (3-1, Super Bowl Odds: +4000)
I’m afraid I might be too low on Seattle here. Mike Macdonald’s defense looks elite, thanks to an overpowering defensive line and dynamic secondary. And first-year offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak has Sam Darnold playing even better than he did last season in Minnesota. Now, we haven’t seen the offense be forced to play left-handed yet. And while Darnold has been cooking on early downs, when defenses have to respect the run and play-action passes are more effective, he’s been just OK in obvious passing situations. To be fair, there haven’t been many of those with Seattle rolling on offense, and the absence of evidence is not evidence of an absence. But I’d like to see how the Seahawks offense fares when it can’t stay on script before I’m ready to elevate the team into the group of legitimate contenders.
Indianapolis Colts (3-1, Super Bowl odds: +3000)
I’d like to apologize to all of Indianapolis for jinxing the Colts by writing nice things about Daniel Jones last week. I still believe that Jones is in for a career-salvaging year under Shane Steichen, but Sunday’s game against the Rams was a reminder that his ceiling still maxes out at around league average. But even in an ugly performance, Jones made some throws against the tough Los Angeles defense. He also threw away the game with a bad interception, which I would have been willing to overlook if he hadn’t made the same mistake on the previous drive.
I can’t trust this team.
Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1, Super Bowl Odds: +7000)
Ugh, do we really have to do this again? Look, can we all agree that even if the Steelers hit 5-1 by getting wins over Jake Browning and Dillon Gabriel in their next two games, we won’t entertain the idea of this team being a contender? We went through this charade last season before the inevitable late-season collapse that everybody saw coming. And while Aaron Rodgers has weasled his way to a nice-looking traditional stat line this season, his advanced metrics show that it’s all an illusion. He ranks 20th in yards per dropback, 21st in EPA, and 23rd in success rate, and PFF has him graded as the 28th-best passer this season. He’s been fine, and even that’s being generous. A tough schedule down the stretch will expose this team and its quarterback for what they really are.
Cincinnati Bengals (2-2, Super Bowl Odds: +25000)
I’m including the Bengals, who own the league’s second-worst point differential behind Tennessee, only because they’d make the playoffs if the season ended today. After watching Browning flail through his first two starts, we all know where this is headed. Poor Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.
