Welcome to the driest stretch of the NBA calendar. There are no games. There are precious few offseason rumors. We’re subsisting on a lean diet of Instagram workout videos and news reports in the lead-up to EuroBasket. Even the remaining NBA free agents don’t really move the needle. The winners and losers of the offseason have already been declared.
But are we sure about that? To take advantage of the rare quiet time in the NBA calendar, we asked our staff to survey the league with fresh eyes and offer their boldest offseason “zags”—opinions that cut against the grain or differ from the consensus that tends to develop over these slow summer months. Whom is the NBA cognoscenti too high on? Too low? Which players and teams deserve a fresh look? These are their answers.
The Milwaukee Bucks aren’t dead yet.
Danny Chau: This is the most pivotal season for Milwaukee since its championship run in 2021, and though everything still hinges on Giannis Antetokounmpo, things are drastically different this time around. Most of the old anchors the Bucks had are gone. The only other player remaining from that title team is Bobby Portis. Milwaukee’s chosen path toward retaining Antetokounmpo for the long haul will depend entirely on whether it can establish a wide-open runway for a superstar still at the height of his powers.
That starts with spacing from every other player on the court. In Myles Turner, the Bucks have turned back the clock on their wildly successful Brook Lopez project, which over the past seven seasons practically created the modern 3-and-D center archetype. Turner, 29, joins the Bucks after a full decade in Indiana, yet he is still a year younger than Lopez was when he signed with Milwaukee back in 2018. He arrives after shooting nearly 40 percent from 3 on by far the most attempts of his career last season.
Without a true star beyond Giannis, the Bucks will have to harness the great equalizer in basketball. The team led the league in 3-point field goal percentage last season but was below average in actual attempts. Ramping production up from distance is how the Cleveland Cavaliers punched up against the elites over the past two seasons; it’ll take a similar shift in Milwaukee. The Bucks had a lot of success last season using A.J. Green and Gary Trent Jr. as screeners for Giannis in the pick-and-pop; outside of Antetokounmpo in transition, those plays, which leverage the full advantage of Giannis’s immense gravity to create wide-open 3s, yielded the most value for the team.
Green shot 46.3 percent from 3 on spot-ups, handoffs, and transition plays and as the screen setter in the pick-and-roll, per Synergy Sports. Trent wasn’t far behind, but his ability to pull up as a handler in the two-man game was an additional wrinkle. Their continued deep-range production will be integral to Milwaukee’s success. Perhaps the most intriguing wild card on the roster is fourth-year breakout candidate Ryan Rollins, who earned the trust of Doc Rivers against all odds last season. Standing at 6-foot-3 with an astounding 6-foot-10 wingspan, Rollins will mostly impact the defense, but he flirted with a 50-40-80 season in his first year as an NBA rotation player. These are the margins the Bucks will have to grind in the lower rungs. They aren’t front-runners anymore; they haven’t been for a while. But in a wide-open Eastern Conference ripe for the taking, I still can’t count out the team with the best player.
The Toronto Raptors are good, actually.
Michael Pina: I think the Toronto Raptors will be pretty good! Like, “top-six seed, make the playoffs, threaten to make some noise in the first round” good!
I’m bullish on Scottie Barnes returning to form as one of the most versatile two-way mismatch creators in the world. I exist, somewhat proudly, as the last person on planet Earth who believes Brandon Ingram can crack another All-Star team. I have confidence in Immanuel Quickley’s outside shot and driving floater, think the strides RJ Barrett made as a playmaker last season were genuine, and am satisfied knowing exactly what Jakob Poeltl will provide on a possession-to-possession basis. Not a bad team!
To me, the more serious questions start with Toronto’s bench, but I’m more curious than pessimistic about the staggered lineup combinations head coach Darko Rajakovic will discover and (hopefully) hone throughout the regular season. Gradey Dick and Ochai Agbaji are 3-point threats with intriguing upside. Ja’Kobe Walter and Collin Murray-Boyles are untapped lottery talents. Jonathan Mogbo and Jamal Shead provide toughness and physicality.
If all this sounds like a stretch to you, I get it. But please don’t overlook the never-ending punch line that will be the 2025-26 Eastern Conference. Two of its best teams have spent the past couple of months decimating themselves in the aftermath of ruptured Achilles tendons suffered by two of the most irreplaceable players in the entire league. Everything feels up for grabs. In the resulting morass, how many starting fives will have more talent than Toronto’s on a typical night? If the Raptors’ core stays healthy and their young supporting cast is able to tap into some collective upside, this team will be one of the league’s more pleasant surprises.
The Brooklyn Nets had a perfectly solid offseason.
Justin Verrier: Tank amnesia is an annual rite of passage: Every summer, we agree that bottoming out and prioritizing a high draft pick is the best option for the league’s worst teams, but seeing the losses mount almost always gives way to moral panic. How can this very bad team be so very bad?! The Nets just got a jump on the outrage phase.
Selecting five players in the first round of the draft was admittedly extreme—especially since most are of the same type: creators with iffy shooting histories. But the 2025-26 season was always going to be another bridge year in Brooklyn; even if the Nets somehow traded for Giannis Antetokounmpo, their roster would’ve been more bereft than what the former MVP has in Milwaukee. Overstuffing the rotation with young fliers, taking on bad contracts (of serviceable, re-flippable wings in Terance Mann and Michael Porter Jr.) for extra draft capital, and leveraging cap space for free rotation players won’t change the big-picture priority of banking the best lottery odds in a purportedly star-studded 2026 draft. If anything, that’ll help: The Nets overachieved with middling talent in Jordi Fernández’s debut season, finishing fifth from the bottom; the extra inexperience should make stumbling into wins even harder.
What’s the road map to contention in Brooklyn? Who knows? But that’s kind of the point: Every organization is adrift until it lands a star, and nothing the Nets did this summer should deter them from that goal.
The Sixers should land home-court advantage in the Eastern playoffs.
Howard Beck: Apologies for making you spit up your morning coffee. Take a minute to mop up the mess, and then hear me out.
Think about the Sixers in the abstract for a moment. Their franchise player won MVP two years ago and is just 31. Their no. 2 option is a 24-year-old All-Star with dazzling quickness, playmaking skills, and scoring touch. That duo is flanked by a nine-time All-Star who, at age 35, can still score and defend at a high level.
They had one of the NBA’s top rookies last season. They just landed another potential star with the third pick in the draft. Their rotation features a nice mix of youth and experience, all managed by a head coach who won a championship just six years ago. Remove the names, reputations, and, well, myriad other concerns, and this would sound like a 50-win team, maybe even a contender in a weak Eastern Conference. And all I’m saying is that the Sixers still could be—indeed, should be—given even a modicum of good health and better vibes.
Joel Embiid’s troublesome left knee—which cut short the last two seasons—was presumably repaired in April. As far as anyone knows, there is no chronic issue and no reason not to expect a full recovery. A healthy Embiid is a top-10 player. Paul George just had knee surgery in July, but again, there’s no reason to believe it’s anything serious. And though George struggled last season without Embiid, he should be much more effective as a second (or third) option next to Embiid. If Jared McCain shows the same explosiveness he did as a rookie (before a knee injury), all the better. And hey, maybe no. 3 pick V.J. Edgecombe is ready to contribute immediately.
Point being, there is no shortage of talent here if the Sixers can just get through one season without injuries or chemistry issues derailing them. The doubts are understandable (fool me twice, etc.). But the upside is undeniable. There’s a world where the Sixers are legitimately good, maybe even great. But yeah, maybe don’t bet the mortgage on them just yet.
The Washington Wizards’ future is legitimately bright.
Tyler Parker: [Splashes water on face, looks in mirror, shakes head.]
I don’t feel super comfortable typing this about a team that won 18 games last year, but the Wizards will be fun this season. You know, at times, for stretches both extended and limited. They may even, on occasion, verge into the dark arts of necromancers and conjurers and bring about a little chaos, a little destruction. Because look, I’m checking out this roster of available ’Zards, and there are quality ingredients in this kitchen.
Don’t make that face. Hear me out. [Opens fridge.]
I’m seeing the no. 6 pick in the 2025 draft, Tre Johnson. I’m seeing Kyshawn George, Bilal Coulibaly, Cam Whitmore, and Bub Carrington. Add to the mix former no. 2 pick Alex Sarr and the dulcet tones of Corey Kispert’s jumper, and there’s a chance you turn on the Wiz this season and see real sparks. Khris Middleton and CJ McCollum will be the adults in the room and provide some been-there-done-that stability, or maybe a desperate, trying-to-contend organization will come through and take them off the Wizards’ hands for a decent return. I’m just saying, despite a forgettable decade-plus of basketball, it feels like the organization’s future has some luminosity for the first time in years. May these kids run like mad and make many mistakes. May they not care about the past. May they get on the court and party hard.
The De’Aaron Fox extension is an unambiguous win for the Spurs.
Isaac Levy-Rubinett: Victor Wembanyama climbed all the way to sixth on The Ringer’s NBA player rankings before a blood clot ended his sophomore season in February. Armed with a clean bill of health (and an entry-level rank in the Shaolin kung fu system), Wemby is ready to win now in the NBA. It would be malpractice if the Spurs’ front office entrusted the point guard position to a 19-year-old who has yet to play an NBA game. Dylan Harper is a tantalizing prospect, and reigning Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle is one of the most explosive young players in the NBA, but neither has enough experience to step into full-time caretaker duties for a contending team built around the game’s best young talent. By signing Fox to a max extension—rather than play hardball and risk losing him for nothing next offseason—the Spurs are positioned to have their cake and eat it later, too.
There are two major reasons the price of Fox’s deal—four years, $229 million, starting at 30 percent of the cap—shouldn’t worry the Spurs. First, I expect Fox to pop in a better situation. His downhill attacking ability will open all sorts of space for Wemby, whose gravity will in turn create driving lanes for Fox. Second, this contract won’t hurt the Spurs as much as, say, Jamal Murray’s hurts the Nuggets because the rest of San Antonio’s roster is cheaper than the rest of Denver’s. The Spurs have multiple rotation players on rookie contracts and others on fairly team-friendly deals, so they can absorb a market-rate deal for Fox. If Harper or Castle overtakes him for the starting job, that would be a great problem for the Spurs to have.
Still, I understand the trepidation. In the age of the second apron, one bad contract can handcuff a whole era, and there’s nothing more deleterious to a team’s long-term outlook than a big-money contract for a non-elite player. Skeptics are right that these are the kinds of deals that can turn sour in today’s NBA; I just don’t think this one fits the bill. Fox is talented enough to play to the value of his contract, and the Spurs are well-positioned to work around it.
The Indiana Pacers will win more games than they did last season.
Matt Dollinger: It’s been nearly two months since Game 7 of the NBA Finals, but it sort of feels like it’s been two years. Pacers fans have been endlessly cycling through the five stages of grief like they’re dopamine-laced Instagram Reels. First, there was denial. There’s no way Tyrese Haliburton actually tore his Achilles, right? Then anger. Fuckfuckfuckfuckfuck. Then bargaining. Well, maybe Andrew Nembhard will be just as good as Haliburton. Then depression. Why do I even watch basketball? Then, finally, acceptance. Sigh, T.J. McConnell 4 Life.
Given the claim I’m about to make, I’m not sure which stage I’m currently in (denial, obviously still denial), but I sort of think the Haliburton-less Pacers could still be extremely pesky this season and could possibly even best the 50 wins that earned them the 4-seed last season.
Outside of Hali and Myles Turner, the entire roster that slayed the Bucks, crushed the Cavs, shocked the Knicks, and pushed the Thunder to their absolute limit is back. Losing your franchise star for an entire season is about as crushing as it gets, but when you consider who the Pacers will be plugging in his place, the situation feels a lot lighter (bargaining, obviously bargaining). Nembhard and Bennedict Mathurin are both ready to make the leap—they’re two of the top three favorites to win Most Improved Player next season—and even the most advanced AI machines in the world can’t comprehend how hard McConnell is going to play next season. This is a deep squad with one of the NBA’s best coaches at the helm, and they’re playing with a massive chip (not chip, unfortunately) on their shoulders. The brand of basketball that fueled the most unlikely Finals run in NBA history isn’t going anywhere. The East is weak, half the league will be playing for 2027, and the Pacers aren’t going to take any nights off. It’s impossible to replicate last postseason’s success, but a regular-season run could be doable.
