This week, the Indianapolis Colts reevaluated their quarterback situation and decided to bench Anthony Richardson in favor of Joe Flacco. This came after a 23-20 loss to the Texans on Sunday, in which Richardson went 2-for-15 with an interception in the first half and took himself out of the game for a play after breaking out of a sack. If we take head coach Shane Steichen’s word for it, Richardson tapping himself out to catch his breath had nothing to do with the decision:
But football is a strange sport, and it gets even stranger on matters regarding the quarterback position. So while “Athlete asks coach for a quick breather” wouldn’t make headlines in any other context, in Richardson’s case, it’s become a big fucking deal.
“We had a conversation about it,” said Colts center Ryan Kelly. “I think he knows that’s not the standard that he needs to play up to—and the rest of the team holds him to. I’m sure he’s gonna take some criticism for that, rightfully so.”
You don’t often hear an offensive lineman publicly criticize his starting quarterback. Kelly also stuck up for Richardson, saying that nobody should question how hard he plays. But some in NFL media weren’t so charitable in their takes on the play. Damien Woody, a former offensive lineman; Rex Ryan, a former head coach; and Dan Orlovsky, a former quarterback, all ripped the second-year pro for asking to come out of the game.
It’s impossible to measure how much we should care about an incident like this, but people who are in—or have been in—NFL locker rooms clearly do. It also seems to matter to some people who have a direct line to Colts principal owner Jim Irsay. Here’s former Colts interim coach and Irsay’s buddy Jeff Saturday pretty much guaranteeing Richardson’s benching before the news broke on Tuesday:
If Richardson were playing better football, this story would have likely gone away without much fuss. But unfortunately for the QB, that’s not the case. Richardson is completing just 44 percent of his passes this season, which ranks last in the NFL by a mile. He also ranks 27th in EPA per dropback, 32nd in success rate, and 27th in QBR. So he hasn’t performed well, and after the incident on Sunday, he may have also lost some clout in the locker room. With a capable backup behind him who’s already played well in two starts in place of an injured Richardson this season, the rationale for the benching is easy to see: This team is 4-4 and just a half-game out of a playoff spot. With a more reliable quarterback, the Colts stand a better chance of making the postseason.
But sneaking into the playoffs with no real shot at winning a title shouldn’t be the goal. That wasn’t the future Indianapolis envisioned when it drafted Richardson with the fourth overall pick in 2023, knowing there’d be some growing pains early on. And it doesn’t make much sense as the team’s reality now. The book on Richardson coming into the NFL was that he needed live reps to develop after starting only 13 games in college. And this early on in his career, it’s hard to see how marginal short-term benefits of playing Flacco are worth losing that time on the field for a quarterback who desperately needs it.
If the Colts have decided they’re no longer interested in developing Richardson long-term, that’s an awfully quick hook. Richardson, who was the NFL’s youngest starter, has started only 10 games in his career (he suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in Week 5 of his rookie year). And of the 78 quarterbacks who’ve been drafted in the first round since 2000, Richardson ranks 41st in EPA per dropback through 10 starts, per TruMedia. Some of the notable names behind him: Josh Allen, Trevor Lawrence, Tua Tagovailoa, and Jared Goff. Pro bowlers Matthew Stafford and Carson Palmer also rank lower than Richardson, but played in an era when passing was more difficult. Richardson’s results have been bad, but not nearly as bad as some of the biggest busts from recent memory.
Richardson’s First 10 Starts Vs. Notable Draft Busts Since 2014
Richardson ranks much lower than 41st in success rate—which measures down to down consistency—among that first-round QB group. And that tracks for a player who’s completed about 50 percent of his career passes. Richardson’s EPA numbers are being propped up by massive chunk plays, and that big arm of his has generated a lot of them. His six longest completions account for over a third of his passing yards on the season, per TruMedia. That’s how he’s maintained a healthy 6.8 yards per dropback mark despite his low completion rate.
Richardson was billed as a strong-armed quarterback with an impressive deep ball coming out of Florida, and that has translated to the pro level. Also, his skill at evading sacks, another strength on his pre-draft scouting report, is helping to prop up his yards-per-dropback number. The guy just doesn’t take sacks on early downs. He’s the only quarterback who hasn’t taken a sack on first down this season. In fact, he hasn’t taken a sack on any dropback that TruMedia charts as a “run down,” which includes any first down and second-and-less-than-7. As Colts tight end Mo Alie-Cox observed after the loss in Houston, Richardson and the offense have been at their best on those early downs when opponents have to honor the run. “I think [Richardson] plays real well when we have the run game involved because the offense is complementary football,” Alie-Cox said, via The Athletic. And he’s right! Indianapolis has been a league-average offense overall and one of the best rushing attacks on first and second down—but only when Richardson has been on the field. When Flacco is out there, Indy’s early-down offense has been among the worst in the league.
Colts Early-Down Offense, by Quarterback
Not only has the Colts passing game been more explosive with Richardson, it’s also been more consistent with a higher success rate on early downs. That’s a bit surprising, considering Richardson’s volatility. But what’s not surprising is the wide gap in run efficiency depending on which quarterback is in the lineup. Richardson forces the defense to account for all 11 players in the run game, while Colts are basically playing 10-on-11 with Flacco. Richardson’s gravity in the run game shows up on film. On this play, the edge defender honors Richardson as a runner before taking on the blocker cutting across the formation.
Here’s what happens when the defender takes a more direct angle to the running back: Richardson pulls the ball and runs for a first down.
Now here’s a similar concept, but with Flacco under center.
“You got Jonathan Taylor and Anthony Richardson in the backfield [and] there’s a run mesh,” Colts offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter explained to me in August. “Who’s got the ball and which direction are they headed? And if you have just one half of a misstep as a defender, you might have an explosive player with a couple steps on you heading the other way. In this league, that’s obviously a huge advantage.”
Without Richardson in the backfield, the Colts lose that huge advantage. And because defenses can commit fewer players to the run box, Richardson’s absence also has an effect on the play-action pass game, meaning fewer explosive passes to go along with a decrease in explosive runs. As the numbers have shown so far, the entire early-down operation goes to shit without the threat of the quarterback run.
But that’s only on early downs. On third down, the offense has been markedly better with Flacco. The 39-year-old would lead the NFL in EPA per dropback on third down if he had enough dropbacks to qualify. He’d rank third in success rate. The offense has been more efficient with Flacco on the field, but only because he’s been unsustainably productive on those money downs, which skew the EPA numbers in his favor. Based on overall down-to-down consistency, as measured by success rate, the Colts offense has performed about the same regardless of who was playing QB.
(Maybe the solution to Indy’s offensive woes is hiding in plain sight: A two-quarterback system! Play Richardson on run downs and bring in Flacco to handle the obvious passing situations. What could go wrong?)
It’s also worth noting that all but one of Richardson’s starts this season have come against top-10 pass defenses, while Flacco’s two starts came against the Jaguars and Titans. Unless Flacco can continue to be one of the NFL’s best QBs on third down against better competition, the Colts offense could potentially be worse overall, even if the passing game marginally improves. His third-down prowess will be put to the test on Sunday night against Brian Flores and the Vikings defense.
What seems hardest to overlook in the Flacco-Richardson conversation, though, is Richardson’s completion percentage, which has been historically low and puts him in bad company.
Richardson is an inaccurate quarterback, which is confirmed by both numbers and film. But inaccuracy doesn’t fully explain how he’s completing just 44 percent of his passes. After all, Richardson completed nearly 60 percent of his passes over a larger sample size in 2023. I suppose he could have become less accurate over the offseason, but that is not typically how these things work. We could go through each of Richardson’s incomplete passes and determine the cause, but luckily, Pro Football Focus has already done that for us. And while inaccuracy has certainly contributed to his issues, Richardson has had the highest rate in the league of passes falling incomplete due to receiver error (which includes drops, receivers falling down on routes, and miscommunications with the QB), passes where he was hit as he threw the ball, and passes that were accurate but defensed at the catch point.
Here are all 13 incomplete passes Richardson threw in the first half against Houston on Sunday.
Sure, there are some wayward throws and questionable decisions in there, but nothing too egregious. Richardson looks like your typical raw, 22-year-old quarterback who’s learning on the job against a tough defense. Accuracy wasn’t the issue against Houston: Richardson’s shot selection was. A healthier diet of throws—and some better luck at the catch point—should clear up the completion percentage problem over time. And Richardson learning which throws he can make and which ones he should turn down will accelerate his development. But, according to the Colts offensive coordinator, that’s the sort of thing that’s easier to work on when you’re getting live reps.
“We all learn better by doing,” Cooter told me in August. “You’re [also] able to learn by watching and visualizing, which Anthony really worked through [in 2023]. But when you’re out there making that decision and making that throw, and evaluating a defender—can I get this ball in there? Can I not get this ball in there? It’s just a live reps thing—it’s why we’d love if everybody stayed healthy all the time so everybody can get all these live reps.”
Both Steichen and Irsay have also been adamant that these on-field learning experiences are crucial to a quarterback’s development. The entire organization seems to be in alignment there. So unless this benching is just a disciplinary measure for Richardson calling for a break to catch his breath, it doesn’t make much sense. Sure, having Flacco under center could improve the offense just enough for the team to push for a wild-card spot—but at what cost?
