If you were to build a pitcher to frustrate the Philadelphia Phillies in a lab, he’d look a lot like New York Mets Game 4 starter José Quintana. The Phillies love to swing at everything and try to do damage on pitches early in counts. The Mets southpaw pitches in the strike zone less than every qualified starter in Major League Baseball in 2024. Quintana is not close to being an ace, but his style of pitching is efficiently designed for hitters to get themselves out by being overly aggressive on pitches that are difficult to slug.
With the pressure at its absolute highest on Wednesday in Queens, as the Phillies attempted to fight off elimination and return their National League Division Series to Philadelphia for a decisive Game 5, the Phillies mustered only two hits and one run off Quintana in five-plus innings. Only once in six innings did the leadoff runner reach base. The Mets leadoff runners reached base four times against Phillies starter Ranger Suárez.
By the time the Mets’ Francisco Lindor hit a go-ahead grand slam off Carlos Estévez in the bottom of the sixth, the Mets had scored more than enough to beat the Phillies offense, which was lifeless for 32 of the 36 innings played in the NLDS. Outside of the Phillies’ euphoric comeback and walk-off in Game 2, Philadelphia’s bats dissipated into dust in this series, which felt like a continuation of the National League Championship Series last season; it also flipped the script on how the Phillies had upended the NL East champion Braves in each of their last two playoff runs. In 2022 and 2023, the Phillies started the regular season slowly, grabbed a wild-card spot, and then outplayed Atlanta over four games in the NLDS.
In 2024, the Mets transformed into the Phillies of old, defying expectations and delivering crucial hits in high-pressure moments. They outperformed the Phillies across two series in September and carried that into October. While results in September don’t always translate into wins and losses in October, it’s too late for such reassurances. The Mets convincingly won this playoff series, 3-1, displaying a significant gap between the quality of their at-bats and the Phillies’ over 36 innings. Even though the Phillies bullpen was seen as having a major advantage entering October, it ended up with an 11.37 ERA. However, the bullpen won’t be the main focus for the Phillies moving forward.
For the 2024 Phillies, this loss is part of a larger narrative in a sports city that has endured numerous heartbreaking near misses in recent years. In 2022, the baseball team had a magical run to the World Series; in the Series, they led 2-1 against Houston, only to lose three consecutive games. The Philadelphia Union soccer team lost an MLS Cup final in a penalty shoot-out on the same day the Phillies season ended in 2022. The Eagles squandered a 10-point halftime lead to the Chiefs in the 2023 Super Bowl. The 76ers’ fan base has endured years of intentional tanking and disappointment and has failed to see the team advance past the second round of the NBA playoffs in increasingly bizarre ways for the past seven years and counting.
The 2024 Phillies appeared to be a team unlike any other. The fan base believed that this ball club had different DNA than previous sports teams that had fallen short.
Baseball is a cruel sport centered on overcoming failure. It becomes even more brutal when the weight of expectations affects the hitters at the plate. Many will point to 2022 as the one that got away from the Phillies. Philadelphia’s thrilling late comeback in Game 1 of the wild-card series against St. Louis in 2022 marked the return of October baseball to the city after 11 years. Rhys Hoskins slammed his bat, Bryce Harper had the swing of his life, and the Phillies powered their way to the World Series. Although they didn’t win the title, they finished with hope. The Phillies had climbed the baseball mountain and built a core group of players capable of returning to the Series yet again in the years to come.
The real turning point came in 2023. Philadelphia returned home with a 3-2 lead in the NLCS against the underdog Diamondbacks team, who’d barely made it into the playoffs. Unlike in 2022, there was no dominant superteam waiting for the Phillies in the World Series. On paper, they had advantages all over the roster and a legendary home field that intimidated opposing teams. Before those two crucial October nights in 2023, the Phillies had a record of 12-2 in 14 home playoff games in 2022 and 2023. The two losses not only left the Champagne bottle in my car unopened but also exposed the flaw that will, for now, define this era of Phillies baseball for the city’s passionate fan base.
They could not stop swinging.
When you think of the Phillies’ best offensive moments during their 2022 and 2023 playoff runs, you think of their aggressive approach. It’s how most of the lineup is designed. Hitting coach Kevin Long has prioritized hunting fastballs and doing damage on them, especially early in counts. Since 2022, the Phillies have had the fifth-highest swing rate in MLB on pitches outside the zone. Make a mistake pitching to Philadelphia in the zone, and more often than not you’ll hear a loud crack of the bat, followed by a trot around the bases. The Braves’ Spencer Strider learned this lesson in the 2023 NLDS when right fielder Nick Castellanos hit two homers off him, the second on a fastball that touched 100 but was right down the middle. Arizona allowed the Phillies six home runs in Citizens Bank Park in the first two games of the 2023 NLCS. When the Diamondbacks returned to Philly for the final two games, they fully embraced a pitching strategy that used the Phillies’ own aggressiveness against them.
The Phillies’ chase rate in the first two games of that NLCS was 23.8 percent. From Game 3 to Game 7, it ballooned to 38.1 percent.
The Phillies kept swinging. They fell behind in counts trying to chase the dopamine hit of those home runs and roars. Arizona stole Game 6 and Game 7 and ripped out the heart of a fan base that had prepared to continue dancing on its own all the way into a second straight World Series. For the first time, the Phillies had expectations for that series. No longer were they the underdog surprise team. The roles reversed, the Phillies’ flawed approach resulted in three total runs scored in those final two home games. The blueprint was laid. Don’t throw strikes in the zone. Don’t throw them fastballs. The Phillies vowed to make changes entering 2024. For a few months, they did.
The 2024 season was the most complete for the Phillies of this era. The rotation boasted three All-Stars (Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sánchez, and Ranger Suárez) and a fourth player, Aaron Nola, who hasn’t missed a start since 2017. The bullpen was deeper, and with Kyle Schwarber now a full-time designated hitter, the defense improved. Offensively, the Phillies could still mash with the best of them, but now they had the pitching depth and run prevention skills to compete for a full 162 games. Philadelphia started strong, with a 62-34 record at the All-Star break, coasted to its first division title since 2011, and finished with the second-best record in Major League Baseball.
“It’s not how you start, it’s how you finish,” Castellanos said. “We started fantastic. We were the best team in baseball in the first half, and everybody in baseball and all the fans are saying this our year, this is our year, this is our year.”
The Phillies’ chase rate in the first half of the season was the 10th highest in baseball, at 32.3 percent. There was a concerted effort by multiple key players to adjust their approach and draw more walks. The offense finished the first half as the seventh best in the league overall. With how dominant the pitching was, the Phillies made winning look easy. As Atlanta’s injury crisis worsened and it lost its best pitcher and hitter, the Phillies seemed perfectly positioned. The 2022 season ended with pride, and the 2023 season ended in shock. When you assess the 12 playoff teams, few seemed more balanced on paper than the Phillies.
A deeper analysis of the offensive metrics revealed a concerning trend that would ultimately lead to the downfall of the Phillies offense in October. During the second half of the season, no other team in MLB chased pitches outside the zone more than the Phillies, at a rate of 35.3 percent. Those old habits resurfaced as soon as Philadelphia felt the pressure of expectations once again.
“I don’t know if expectations put added pressure, I don’t know,” Castellanos said. “I can speculate, but one thing I know is that we didn’t cross the finish line.”
It’s unclear how the Phillies can improve to avoid a repeat of this situation. In 2022, they addressed the shortstop position by acquiring Trea Turner. Turner is known for swinging at pitches outside the zone, leading to inconsistent offensive performance.
In 2023 and 2024, Turner’s chase rate reached a career high since coming to Philadelphia. He is signed through 2033.
Castellanos played a crucial role in the minimal offense the Phillies had in their NLDS loss to the Mets. He has faced criticism for his approach and has two years remaining on his contract. The Phillies’ top five highest-paid hitters—Schwarber, Harper, Castellanos, Turner, and J.T. Realmuto—are all signed for at least one more season. Some of the focus will be on the Phillies’ “day care” of Bryson Stott, Alec Bohm, and Brandon Marsh, who showed potential in 2022 and 2023 but struggled majorly in the second half of 2024 and underperformed in the postseason. There are few hitting prospects in the upper minors to address potential gaps in the lineup.
The Phillies, who feature one of the league’s best rotations and a solid core of hitters, are expected to remain competitive in 2025. However, this group must prove that it can avoid bad habits and chasing pitches when the pressure to overcome expectations is on. That remains the Phillies’ biggest obstacle in their pursuit of baseball immortality, an elusive World Series title.
