The Premier League returns from the early-season international break that no one asked for on Saturday. Now that the transfer window is closed and European matches are set to begin with the Champions League’s kickoff on Tuesday, the season is truly kicking into gear. Spurs will host Arsenal in the North London Derby—the highlight match of the weekend between two bitter rivals—on Sunday.
We’ve seen only three matches of the 38-game season so far, which is too small of a sample to draw meaningful conclusions from given how long the season is and how much the squads are in flux as they return for the new season. But we’re still going to try. It might be only three matches, but that’s still 7.9 percent of the season—and patterns are already emerging.
It was wrong to write off Liverpool as an elite title contender in the post–Jurgen Klopp era.
Liverpool fell out of the title race in late April last season after a draw against Manchester United and losses to Everton and Crystal Palace. Manchester City’s and Arsenal’s consistent success meant that the Reds were no longer contenders by early May. Many expected Liverpool to struggle this season after their legendary manager left in May. However, the team had a plan in place, and new manager Arne Slot has made an impressive start with three comfortable wins in a row. Liverpool has not yet conceded a goal, a significant improvement from the defensive issues they faced toward the end of the Klopp era.
Liverpool is much closer to the title race than they are to the chasing pack of contenders like Spurs, Chelsea, Aston Villa, Manchester United, and Newcastle, among whom many expected them to fall this season. Liverpool proved this with a 3-0 victory over rival United on their last match day before the international break.
Slot is not Klopp. The Reds are much more controlled in their attacks and possession buildup. Klopp’s Liverpool were known for their intense pressing out of possession and constant desire to move the ball up the pitch as quickly as possible. There are still elements of Liverpool’s incredibly dynamic transition-attacking play from the Klopp era—the first goal against Brentford went from a defensive set piece to a Luis Diaz goal in quick-strike fashion—but the Reds prefer to settle the ball and build out from the back to begin most of their attacks.
Better injury luck this season has also helped Slot transition into the top job. Diogo Jota hasn’t been consistently available throughout his time with the club, making just 26 starts in the last two Premier League seasons. However, when he’s on the pitch, he provides excellent all-around forward production, with one goal, one assist, and 0.91 expected goals (xG) and expected assists (xA) combined per 90 minutes played so far this season.
Luis Díaz suffered a major knee injury in December 2022, and it wasn’t until the second half of last season that he returned to elite production as a winger. In the three matches he’s played this season, Díaz has looked as good as ever, scoring three goals and averaging more than three shots per match.
Through three matches, the Reds have the second-best xG difference (plus-1.51 per 90) and have conceded the third-fewest expected goals, at 2.4. Last season, Liverpool led the Premier League with 20.55 shots per match and 10.87 conceded. However, under Slot’s management they have reduced the tempo and increased their efficiency, now producing 16 shots per match and conceding 7.67 in the 2024-25 season. That’s more than 10 fewer total attempts per match in Liverpool matches.
If the first-choice defense remains fit, Liverpool will be in the heart of the title race throughout the year, even without their legendary manager.
Spurs are doing everything you’d like to see an elite team do, except produce high-quality scoring chances.
If you pull up a chart of the top eight players with passes completed in the final third, five play for Manchester City and three play for Tottenham. James Maddison, Pedro Porro, and Son Heung-min are all among the Premier League’s elite at completing passes in the final third. Additionally, when it comes to completing crosses, Spurs have two of the top three players.
Tottenham ranks second in touches in the attacking third and first in attacking penalty area touches. They’ve conceded the second-fewest defensive third touches and the fewest touches in their own box. Ange Postecoglou’s criticisms that Spurs are too open and too easy to beat defensively are fair because Tottenham concede a handful of big chances in every match. But from a field-tilt and match-control perspective, only Manchester City has numbers comparable to Spurs’.
Despite the territorial control and the enjoyable viewing experience, Spurs are eighth in expected goals created and eighth in expected goals conceded thus far.
Spurs didn’t have strikers Dominic Solanke or Richarlison for their two matches, against Everton and Newcastle. A quality center forward could be the missing piece to help turn all of Spurs’ territorial dominance into consistent, high-quality chances. Solanke is expected back for the North London Derby on Sunday. It’s also possible that Postecoglou’s style is more artistic than it is efficient in the Premier League, especially given the question of how elite Tottenham’s attacking talent really is.
Sunday’s match against the Premier League’s best defense will be a real test for Spurs. Tottenham found success against Arsenal’s defense in both meetings last year, generating two of the four highest single-game xG outputs of the season against Mikel Arteta’s Gunners and scoring four goals. Arsenal will miss star defensive midfielder Declan Rice due to suspension and attacking midfielder Martin Odegaard due to an ankle injury, which only puts more pressure on Bukayo Saka to carry the Gunners’ attack. Saka’s elite production has upheld an otherwise good but not elite Arsenal statistical profile through three matches.
Arsenal is significantly better than Spurs, but there’s no better opportunity for Spurs to defeat them than this weekend.
Manchester United finally has a Casemiro replacement, but is it enough?
Manchester United didn’t outplay Liverpool in the first half hour of their match on September 1, but the Red Devils were hanging in there. They had conceded only two shot attempts before Casemiro’s giveaway, which felt like the end of his regular starting tenure in Manchester. Liverpool scored immediately off his mistake, and then again when Casemiro lost possession en route to Liverpool’s second goal and eventual 3-0 rout.
The Red Devils brought in Manuel Ugarte from PSG to help improve defensive solidity in the midfield. Ugarte is a quality destroyer and much younger than Casemiro, but the idea that he’s going to fix the structural issues in the Manchester United midfield is pretty dubious. If partnered with English youngster Kobbie Mainoo in midfield, United will still struggle to achieve quality forward passing in the center of the pitch. Mainoo is more comfortable as a ballcarrier in tight spaces, while Ugarte is mostly a safe possession passer with limited forward passing range.
United will probably stop giving away goals at the same rate as last season, when they had a bottom-five defense. Even with marginal defensive improvements, the Red Devils still had major problems in buildup play against Liverpool that can’t just be attributed to Casemiro himself.
The biggest red flag for Manchester United may end up being the lack of shot volume in attack. Marcus Rashford is doing his best Tony Snell impression and has yet to attempt a shot in three starts. Additionally, strikers Joshua Zirkzee and Rasmus Hojlund have mediocre shot volume, which is arguably the biggest weakness in their statistical profiles.
Nottingham Forest hasn’t played a high-quality opponent yet, but their underlying profile suggests real upside.
A simple sorting of the Premier League table by expected goal differential would lead you to believe that Nottingham Forest is one of the best teams in the league. The Trees have the third-best xG difference at plus-0.83, better than Chelsea, Arsenal, Spurs, and Aston Villa. Of course, it’s not that simple, because you need to consider the schedule of opponents. Forest has played Wolves at home, Southampton away, and Bournemouth at home. That’s two relegation contenders and an expected mid-table team.
Still, that level of xG differential doesn’t happen by accident and is backed up by other underlying metrics that suggest Forest could be a really underrated team in 2024-25. This should come as no surprise to the analytics nerds who are reading this, as Forest actually had a top-five defense in the Premier League last year by expected goals allowed—it was only major goalkeeping issues and point deductions that had them in the relegation picture.
Attacking midfielder Morgan Gibbs-White is tied for fifth in chances created this season, behind only Andreas Pereira, Kevin De Bruyne, Cole Palmer, and Dwight McNeil. Forest is fifth in touches in the opposition box, behind only Liverpool, Arsenal, Spurs, and Manchester City.
Set pieces were also a major issue for the Trees last year. They’ve allowed five total shots and zero goals, both among the league’s elite.
Manager Nuno Espirito Santo hasn’t been known for his exciting brand of play in the past, but that doesn’t mean he wasn’t an effective manager at most of his previous jobs. His Wolves teams were functionally good and solidly upper mid-table, and this Forest team is on a similar path in 2024-25. They’ll probably lose at Liverpool on Saturday, but a competitive showing would continue to make me believe this team has taken a real step forward.
It’s early, but are we sure there are three teams worse than Everton?
My preseason belief was that the three newly promoted teams of Ipswich Town, Southampton, and Leicester City would be immediately relegated back to the Championship. Trying to predict off-the-field point deductions is a fool’s errand, but we’ve since learned that Leicester City will not be deducted any points after winning the appeal about their potential violation of the Premier League’s profit and sustainability rules. That changes Everton’s season outlook, which has been the same “hope three teams are worse than us” for almost half a decade now.
Are there still three worse teams than Everton? An answer that would have been an unequivocal “yes” in years past is now quite murky.
In the past few seasons, there were always teams with considerably worse underlying numbers. Last year, the Toffees were closer to mid-table in the betting markets and in relative team strength. But an injury to star center back Jarrad Branthwaite, midfielder Amadou Onana’s departure, and Everton’s continued struggles to score from open play have left them with 10 goals conceded and zero points through three matches. The 2-0 collapse at home against Bournemouth and eventual 3-2 defeat was especially demoralizing.
Everton’s xG difference is the second worst in the Premier League, and it’s the worst once you account for the fact that Ipswich had to play Liverpool and Manchester City in the first two matches. Jordan Pickford’s usually excellent goalkeeping has been subpar thus far.
It’s still worth trusting Sean Dyche to sort out the mess, given his track record for sorting out messes with less talented Burnley sides. After all, the Toffees also had zero points after three matches last year and had not scored a goal. It’s not time to panic yet, but if they suffer two more losses to Aston Villa and Leicester City coming out of the international break, the club will be in true peril.
