Derek offers a short but sweet review of the Democratic National Convention, the science of post-convention bounces, and the reality of the 2024 polling: It’s still a toss-up.
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In the following excerpt, Derek explains why the optimism surrounding the Democratic Party right now should not be conflated with a prediction of the presidential election’s outcome.
Derek Thompson: It’s been two weeks since our last 2024 update, and at the highest level, our update is straightforward. Ever since Kamala Harris took over for Joe Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket, she has transformed this election from a race that Donald Trump was moderately leading for months to a toss-up that now leans slightly toward Harris. And because the momentum is entirely with Kamala Harris and because this week center and center-left media has been absolutely enthralled and entertained with the pomp and drama of the Democratic National Convention, I think there is a palpable sense right now in media that Kamala Harris is a moderate-to-strong favorite to win the election in November. And I cannot emphasize this point more clearly: That’s simply not true.
It is true that polling averages have her slightly ahead in the major blue-wall states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, and even tied or slightly leading in Arizona and Georgia. But Donald Trump is a minuscule polling error away from winning in all of these states. And polling errors are typical and common, even if it’s hard to predict their direction.
If you’re a Democrat who has watched the convention over the last few nights—the undeniably entertaining and, if you are a liberal, inspiring convention—and you’re reading left-leaning news, of course I can understand your enthusiasm, your limbic, hot-blooded certainty that something special is afoot in the Democratic Party. As of the end of August, I think there’s an excitement, an optimism, and a patriotic liberalism alive on the left that has not been on offer since the 2008 election where Obama romped to victory. But it is not useful to conflate those feelings for any kind of prediction.
This excerpt was edited for clarity. Listen to the rest of the episode here and follow the Plain English feed on Spotify.
Host: Derek Thompson
Producer: Devon Baroldi
Subscribe: Spotify
