The NFL offseason is finally over, and by this weekend, every NFL team will be practicing in pads, with contact, giving us the first real glimpse of what each team might look like in 2024.
As camps begin, let’s take a look at some new faces, old ones in new places, what to expect from the best teams in the NFL, and where things stand in contract talks across the league.
Which rookie quarterbacks will win a starting job?
Chicago’s Caleb Williams is the only quarterback in this class who was unambiguously handed the keys to the offense from day one, and offensive coordinator Shane Waldron trusts him to take some chances and play aggressively early in camp. The Athletic’s Kevin Fishbain and Adam Jahns have noted that Chicago’s defense has an upper hand in practice (unsurprising since the core and scheme of that unit are the same as they were in 2023), but Williams hasn’t gone into his shell or second-guessed himself as a result of tough practices. Head coach Matt Eberflus is noncommittal about whether Williams will play in the Hall of Fame Game next Thursday, but I expect that he and the offense will get some limited reps in against the Texans starters—which will be a great early look at how quickly Williams is adjusting to the pro game. Houston’s front four projects to be one of the NFL’s top units, and Williams had issues with ball security and pocket management in 2023. If he’s sharp and efficient in that game, expectations from Bears fans will reach new heights.
Washington’s Jayden Daniels will be sharing first-team reps with veteran Marcus Mariota early in training camp, but that doesn’t seem like a real competition. Daniels was the no. 2 pick, and Washington’s coaches lauded his work ethic and competitive drive in the offseason. Unless he’s a disaster throughout camp, this job is his. I’m interested in seeing how much preseason action Daniels gets because he may be the rookie who needs to make the biggest adjustment to his game coming from college. Daniels takes a good deal of punishment, both in the pocket and as a scrambler. While former Washington quarterback Joe Theismann is adamant that Daniels shouldn’t play this preseason to protect his health, the rookie will likely need some low-stakes but competitive environments to understand what he can and can’t get away with at this level.
Two other first-round quarterbacks, Drake Maye in New England and J.J. McCarthy in Minnesota, are also starting this preseason at no. 2 on their respective depth charts, but it might be harder for either to quickly win the starting job.
Maye will have to show a good balance of smart decision-making and dynamic downfield throws to beat out Jacoby Brissett, an NFL journeyman with 48 career starts who’s a model for consistently making the right decisions and protecting the football. McCarthy’s path to winning the starting job may be even more uphill than Maye’s, even though Sam Darnold is more likely to play himself out of starting contention than Brissett is in New England. Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell has been adamant throughout the offseason that there’s no expectation from his staff or the Vikings brain trust to play McCarthy early. ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler says that McCarthy would have to be “all-world” to take the job from Darnold in camp. As much as I’d like to believe that to be true and McCarthy can truly get time to develop before being thrust into the starting lineup, it’s an easier thing to believe now, before the preseason games start. If Darnold struggles or other rookie quarterbacks around the league find early footing, there will be plenty of pressure on O’Connell to play the rookie they traded up to get.
As for the other first-round quarterbacks, Atlanta’s Michael Penix won’t play in 2024 unless Kirk Cousins gets hurt again, so the preseason will likely be our only chance to see him throw. And everything about the Bo Nix–Jarret Stidham–Zach Wilson competition on the Broncos makes me profoundly sad.
How is Stefon Diggs fitting in with the Houston Texans?
There’s already plenty of hype for year two of the C.J. Stroud era in Houston—and we’re about to find out what this new offense will look like after the Texans added talent around their second-year quarterback. Their biggest move was trading for mercurial veteran receiver Stefon Diggs. The Texans already have a big-play option in Nico Collins—who finished second in expected points added per target in 2023. Bringing Diggs in will keep defenses honest in coverage, giving Stroud more soft zones to work with. Still, I’m a little unsure about how the rotation and target share will work out for this offense overall. With Joe Mixon, who arrived in a trade with Cincinnati in the offseason, and Dameon Pierce making up the backfield rotation, it doesn’t seem like second-year offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik has any interest in abandoning the run game. If the volume of passes isn’t increasing by much and there’s already a successful infrastructure in place, will there be enough distribution to get the most out of all the playmakers on offense and keep Diggs happy? I’m keeping an eye on how much synergy Stroud has with Diggs and Collins this summer.
How will the Baltimore Ravens feature Derrick Henry in this offense?
Baltimore made strides in the passing game in 2023, and quarterback Lamar Jackson finished top five in passer rating and yards per attempt and top 10 in success rate en route to winning his second league MVP award. For all the changes and improvements made in the dropback passing game, the thing I’m most interested in is the combination of free agent addition Derrick Henry, Keaton Mitchell (when he returns from his ACL injury), and Jackson in the running game. Jackson led all quarterbacks in rushing last season, and now he shares the backfield with Henry, the most punishing rusher of this generation. Even though running the ball out of shotgun or pistol formations hasn’t been a major part of Henry’s game, he did have a career high in carries from the pistol last season in Tennessee, as well as his most explosive run rate out of the shotgun, which could set him up well for how Todd Monken might use him in Baltimore. Veterans like Henry typically don’t see much action in preseason games, but I’ll keep a close eye on how this run game develops throughout camp.
What can Kellen Moore do to fix the Philadelphia Eagles’ offensive woes?
While all the hand-wringing in Philadelphia about head coach Nick Sirianni’s job security at the end of last season feels overblown to me, there’s no underselling how thorough the collapse that closed 2023 was and how much pressure Sirianni is facing this season. Sirianni is on his third set of coordinators in as many seasons, and all the change puts even more weight on quarterback Jalen Hurts, who will be running a new offense under Kellen Moore. There are some things Moore shouldn’t change, like using Hurts as a designed runner or taking multiple shots downfield to wide receiver A.J. Brown. What I’ll have my eye on throughout camp and the preseason is how well Hurts can manage adjusting protections and getting the ball out quickly and efficiently against blitzes—things that were critical to the offenses Moore previously ran with Dak Prescott in Dallas and Justin Herbert in Los Angeles. If Hurts can find the answer to pressure in this offense, expect a big year for slot receiver DeVonta Smith. When Moore was calling the offense for the Chargers last season, wide receiver Keenan Allen was second in slot targets and third in yards against blitzing defenses. The prior year in Dallas, with Moore as a play caller, CeeDee Lamb finished second in both categories.
Can the Detroit Lions rein in offenses with their revamped secondary?
Detroit nearly upset the 49ers in the NFC championship game last season, and the Lions still feel like San Francisco’s biggest contender in the NFC. The story to watch in the preseason is the progress of the defensive backfield. Cornerback Terrion Arnold, a first-round pick, and former Bucs cornerback Carlton Davis give Detroit a pair of physical players on the perimeter who can win in single coverage and produce when the ball’s in the air, skills that were missing from the corner group last season. Brian Branch spent most of his rookie season playing in the slot, but with new draft pick Ennis Rakestraw and former Raiders nickel Amik Robertson now in the mix at that position, he may spend more time at safety—which will be a better fit for him if Detroit plans to play more man coverage. With Ifeatu Melifonwu and Kerby Joseph also in the safety rotation, the Lions secondary can be one of the deepest and most versatile in the league.
Will Jeff Hafley’s aggressive scheme unlock the Green Bay Packers defense?
I’m excited to see what Green Bay’s new defensive coordinator, Jeff Hafley, can do for the underperforming Packers defense this season. Leaving behind Joe Barry and his 3-4 defensive system, which struggled to generate pressure or take away throwing windows, Hafley has said he’ll bring an attacking, simplified version of defense in 2024. I’ll be watching to see what that means for cornerback Jaire Alexander—who plays best in tight coverage—and rangy defenders in the middle like Quay Walker, rookie Edgerrin Cooper, and star safety Xavier McKinney. Most importantly, though, this style of play allows Rashan Gary, Preston Smith, Lukas Van Ness, and Kingsley Enagbare to pin their ears back as Green Bay’s pass-rushing rotation, something this team desperately needs in order to reclaim the NFC North and take the next step toward Super Bowl contention.
What will it take to end each holdout across the league?
Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb didn’t show up to Cowboys training camp this Wednesday, as he and the team have yet to come to an agreement on a new long-term contract. Lamb is likely looking for a deal in the range of the $140 million extension that Minnesota’s Justin Jefferson received earlier this offseason. Lamb isn’t the only star player on his team on an expiring deal, but he’s the only one who is holding out, putting pressure on the team to get his deal done before Micah Parsons’s or Dak Prescott’s. (More on Prescott’s situation below!) The yearly averages on Lamb’s next deal are sure to land between $33 and $35 million, but if Lamb wants a guarantee similar to Jefferson’s $89 million at signing, Dallas will surely want more years tacked on to smooth out the cap hits.
The two other “real” holdouts—not reporting, and thus incurring fines—are Jets pass rusher Haason Reddick and 49ers tackle Trent Williams, two veterans looking to rework their deals and play on contracts closer to the top of the market. Reddick is scheduled to make just $15 million this season, after he ranked in the top 20 in total pressures and produced double-digit sacks in 2023 despite a change in roles and a defense that was crumbling around him in Philadelphia. For comparison, Trey Hendrickson, who is the same age as Reddick (29), is making $21 million in Cincinnati. New York will need to pay Reddick to justify parting with future draft capital to acquire him in a trade earlier this year.
Williams’s situation in San Francisco will be a tough needle for general manager John Lynch to thread. All the guaranteed money on his current deal is already paid out, and he’s justified in wanting a reworked deal given his All-Pro honors in each of the past three seasons. In theory, San Francisco can convert his current $20 million base salary into a signing bonus and rework the terms and years on his deal, but that will balloon his future cap hit and dead cap figures in years when San Francisco will likely be paying a premium for quarterback Brock Purdy, who becomes eligible for an extension in 2025. Williams is still an incredible player (and integral to San Francisco’s offense), but his production cliff could be on the horizon. Andrew Whitworth and Jason Peters were both excellent tackles and played into their age-40 seasons, but Whitworth’s last All-Pro year was at age 36, and Peters’s last Pro Bowl was at 34. Even if you think Williams is better than both—and I do—his 36th birthday was just last week, and it’s fair to be concerned about how much longer he’ll be the best left tackle in football.
What’s the latest on the quarterback market?
So which quarterbacks could get new contracts before the regular season begins? Let’s start in Dallas. The Cowboys have so far opted to let Prescott play out his current deal, and unless either party has a change of heart soon and they return to the negotiating table, this season we could be looking at the most intriguing quarterback-in-a-contract-year scenario we’ve ever seen. Kirk Cousins got $100 million in total guarantees from the Falcons this offseason while nursing a torn Achilles back to health, so there’s little incentive for Prescott not to hit the open market and drive his price up.
Miami and Tua Tagovailoa haven’t struck an agreement yet, and when asked about the negotiations last month, Tagovailoa said, “The market is the market.” This quote struck me less as implied hostility in contract negotiations than acknowledgment of the truth: It’ll cost Miami north of $50 million per year to get the deal done. Tagovailoa reported to camp but isn’t participating in any on-field work, meaning he likely won’t practice until there’s an agreement or understanding from both sides.
Like Tagovailoa, Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love is also going through a “hold-in” in Green Bay, and while general manager Brian Gutekunst has expressed optimism that the two sides will finalize a new contract quickly, there are some complicated mechanics to deal with first—unless Green Bay is willing to buck the trend of how it typically does business. The Packers have a history of protecting cap space in future seasons by keeping all guarantees in the first year of the deal, but that’s simply not feasible with modern quarterback contracts. Love could acquiesce to that approach and take a shorter-term deal with market-setting money in the first year, but then Green Bay would have to come back to the table every few offseasons to renegotiate and extend at current market rates—meaning Love would theoretically stay at the top of quarterback earnings. Instead, could we expect a long contract, upward of eight years, with a massive total valuation (more than $500 million) and all kinds of rolling guarantees and bonuses to keep Love’s earnings steady, similar to Patrick Mahomes’s 10-year, $450 million deal? Love has earned his payday; it’s just a matter of how the Packers will try to structure it.
