If there was one clear takeaway from the 2023 Buffalo Bills experience—which included a midseason offensive coordinator change, countless injuries to key players, a 9/11 controversy, and, somehow, a division title—it was that Josh Allen needed more help. The team had talent on the roster, but the offensive scheme put pressure on Allen to create with his legs, and the receiving corps was inconsistent. Help could’ve come in free agency, though the front office could afford only short-term deals for B- and C-level talent. And it still could come through the draft. But right now, about three months after Buffalo played its last game, the situation has only grown more dire.
Stefon Diggs, Allen’s most reliable and productive target, was traded to Houston on Wednesday, along with a couple of day-three draft picks, in exchange for a 2025 second-rounder. The compensation was uninspiring for a 30-year-old wideout who made the Pro Bowl last year—likely a sign this move was more about off-loading a locker-room nuisance and less about a typical roster-building decision. Buffalo also had to accept a $31 million dead cap hit to get it done, which is $3 million more than Diggs would have counted against the Bills’ cap in 2024. And Diggs isn’t the only significant loss Buffalo’s had this offseason. Allen also lost his WR2 (Gabe Davis) and center (Mitch Morse) when both signed with Jacksonville in free agency.
Allen may find more peace on the sideline this season now that Diggs won’t be clamoring for more targets, but his job just got even harder. This is what he signed up for when he inked a six-year, $258 million contract right before the 2021 season. With his cap number increasing significantly this season—it jumps from $19 million in 2023 to $30 million in 2024, and that’s after he restructured his deal last month—cost-cutting measures were expected. But what we’ve seen out of Buffalo this offseason goes far beyond that. As things stand in early April, the Bills roster, outside of the quarterback position, is the weakest among all of the NFL’s serious title contenders. And for Buffalo to maintain its contender status, it will need even more from its quarterback in 2024. Allen is a superstar who has improved every season he’s been in the league, but there’s a limit to his powers. If big things don’t change in the draft and the rest of this offseason, it seems the Bills will enter September content to reach, or surpass, that limit—and deal with the repercussions if they do.
I won’t push the narrative that Buffalo has failed Allen. Extensive editing of the history books would be required to make that argument. The Bills provided Allen with everything a young quarterback could ask for over his first few years in the league: the opportunity to develop through early struggles (which has become increasingly rare in today’s NFL), top-shelf coaching, significant investments in his offensive line and receiving corps, and a great defense. Nobody would have said this after Allen’s rookie campaign in 2018, when he played behind a patchwork offensive line and was throwing to a receiving corps led by Kelvin Benjamin, but he was drafted into the perfect situation.
Allen’s situation is far from perfect now, with Diggs, Davis, and Morse subtracted from the offense and Tre’Davious White, Jordan Poyer, Micah Hyde, and Leonard Floyd gone on defense. The roster purge was necessary because of the salary cap, but the Bills will be massively feeling the effects this season. Barring a trade for San Francisco’s Brandon Aiyuk (possible) or Cincinnati’s Tee Higgins, Allen will enter 2024 with his worst supporting cast since his rookie year. Curtis Samuel is currently the most accomplished receiver on the roster. Khalil Shakir has the most upside, but he profiles as a very good no. 2 option rather than a true WR1. The Chargers have the NFL’s worst receiver room, but this is a close second:
And the Chargers also own the fifth pick in this year’s draft, which is loaded with blue-chip receiving prospects. Buffalo, meanwhile, has the 28th pick of the first round and just one pick (no. 60) on day two. General manager Brandon Beane would have to dig deep into his pockets for the draft capital to move up in the first round, so landing one of the big three receiver prospects—Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, or Rome Odunze—is probably out of the question. Plus, after stripping down the roster, this team needs all the picks it can get.
The Diggs trade won’t help Buffalo improve the roster immediately. This isn’t similar to when the Chiefs traded away Tyreek Hill in 2022 for a premium package of picks, which Kansas City used to build a top defense. The Bills actually lost cap space in the move due to the big dead cap number, and they got a second-rounder in next year’s draft in the deal. This team is up against the cap and short on premium picks. Beane would have to pull off a minor miracle for the Bills to field a comparable receiving corps to the flawed one they had in 2023.
Therefore, the burden on Allen this season will likely be even heavier than it was in 2023, when he dragged the Bills to the playoffs. Last year, that level of difficulty brought out some of the best play we’ve seen from Allen: He finished fifth in total expected points added among quarterbacks and scored 44 total touchdowns. He had a strong argument to be the NFL MVP. But it also brought out some of his worst tendencies. Allen threw 18 interceptions, trailing only Sam Howell for the league lead, and some of those mistakes lost Buffalo games. This was following an offseason in which Bills coach Sean McDermott publicly challenged Allen to play a less reckless brand of football.
“I don’t think that that’s a healthy way to play quarterback in this league,” McDermott said in March last year. “It’s really undefeated that things are going to happen when you play that style, that brand of football. So, we’ve got to get that adjusted. It’s never going to go completely away, but it has to get to where it’s workable. ... I don’t want to take his personality away from him as far as that goes, his signature. But there needs to be an adjustment in that style of play.”
There was no such adjustment. But that doesn’t solely fall on Allen, who had no choice but to lean into the bit. The Bills didn’t provide him with the infrastructure to play the kind of game McDermott wants out of his quarterback—not if Buffalo wanted to keep winning games. And getting back to a winning way was the aim when McDermott replaced offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey with Joe Brady last November. Brady called more runs on early downs, and Allen cut down on turnovers. But while that did lead to victories, Buffalo’s offensive efficiency went down, and Allen would still routinely go into hero mode. Without Diggs on the field, it might be even harder for Allen to fight his playmaking instincts—and harder for him to make the changes his coach wants.
McDermott’s criticism of Allen’s play style isn’t totally wrong. This isn’t a sustainable method. The only past comparable situation—with a quarterback taking on this much physical strain for the sake of the offense—was Cam Newton in Carolina. The Panthers cut Newton’s outspoken, veteran WR1 (Steve Smith) and eventually replaced him with a receiver they drafted with the 28th pick (future Bill Kelvin Benjamin). The offense was built entirely around Newton. He wasn’t just the quarterback, but also the focal point of the run game. That took a toll on his body, which eventually broke down. Newton injured his shoulder in 2016 and lost the arm strength that made him a special passer, and that was that. McDermott and Beane both worked in Carolina for most of Newton’s tenure, so they’ve seen this movie before. Let’s hope they’re not in preproduction for the remake.
The concern here isn’t so much that Allen’s career will be derailed by injuries, but rather that he won’t be given a fair chance at developing into a quarterback with a more sustainable approach—in the same way that Patrick Mahomes has evolved over the past two years. Sure, Mahomes did so after the Chiefs traded away his top wideout, but (1) he might be the greatest quarterback of all time and shouldn’t be the point of comparison for anyone, and (2) he had the greatest offensive mind of our time helping him out. The list of other quarterbacks who have made that leap without a good supporting cast around them is short, if it even exists.
Allen has already defied the odds once. We’ve never seen a young quarterback develop the way he did after coming into the league as a ridiculously raw prospect who couldn’t win or put up good stats in the Mountain West Conference. If Mahomes is the most talented quarterback I’ve ever seen, Allen isn’t far behind. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s right back in the MVP conversation next year and the Bills are still pushing for the top spot in the AFC. But the alternate reality—in which this burden grows too heavy and his play regresses—feels just as likely.
All this pessimism could be washed away with a blockbuster trade or a little luck in the draft. There’s always an exit up ahead in the NFL. But the Bills will have to find it before they push Allen too hard and their franchise passer loses his way.
