Each Thursday of the NBA season, we’re analyzing a grab bag of topics from around the league. This week, we examine the most notable findings from our just-launched Odds Machine. Then, we highlight yet another long losing streak, the reemergence of iso ball, and four players to watch down the stretch. This is the Kram Session.
Under Review: Eight Takeaways From Our NBA Playoff Projections
The Ringer launched our annual Playoff Odds Machine on Thursday. This tool uses teams’ point differentials, plus contextual factors like injuries and strength of schedule, to predict every remaining game this season. This allows us to project final standings, playoff matchups, lottery order, and more. Check out the whole collection of data here, but for now, here are eight initial takeaways with six weeks left in the regular season:
1. The Celtics are overwhelming title favorites: The Odds Machine gives Boston a 42 percent chance to lift the Larry O’Brien Trophy this spring, with nobody else higher than 16 percent.
We’re not alone in this assessment. Basketball Reference’s model gives the Celtics a 61 percent chance to win the title. ESPN’s says 46 percent. Neil Paine’s stats-based forecast—which adapts the old FiveThirtyEight model—settles at 39 percent. In all three of those models, like our Odds Machine, the second-most likely champion is only in the low to mid-teens in its championship percentage.
It isn’t a surprise that Boston is the favorite. At 48-13, the Celtics have the NBA’s best record by 5.5 games, and they have the best net rating by 3.7 points per 100 possessions. (The second-place Thunder are closer to seventh place than they are to first.) The Celtics rank first in offensive rating and second on defense. And they boast the NBA’s easiest remaining schedule, meaning their statistical benchmarks are likely to remain this stellar through the end of the regular season.
It might be a surprise, however, that Boston is such a large favorite. But the Celtics have the fifth-best point differential for any team in NBA history. Based on precedent, a team with their statistical résumé should actually be even heavier favorites to win the championship than the models say.
Best Point Differentials in NBA History
Eight of the 12 previous teams to finish a season with a double-digit average point differential won the title. And the next three teams just below double digits—the 1967 76ers, 1986 Celtics, and 1987 Lakers—all won the title, too.
Still, based on the history of the Jayson Tatum–Jaylen Brown era of Celtics basketball and its playoff disappointments, there is some reason to look askance at their title chances. (It’s worth noting, however, that even after their fourth-quarter collapse against the Mighty Dean Wades on Tuesday, the Celtics are 18-9 with a plus-20 net rating in clutch situations this season.) But public models and Vegas odds agree: Boston is the clear favorite, thanks to its historically strong season to date.
2. The Nuggets are better than advanced models give them credit for: Denver, which plays Boston in a potential Finals preview Thursday, checks in at just 4 percent to win the title, per the Odds Machine. I’d certainly take the over on those odds, after predicting they’d win more than just a single title after their triumph last summer.
The issue is that Denver faces much fiercer competition than it did a year ago (and that Boston will in the East) due to the West’s superior depth. Denver ranks only fifth in the West in point differential this season, after placing first among healthy teams—and second overall—a year ago. Granted, the Nuggets are probably coasting a bit this season, as defending champs are wont to do, but they coasted to the end of last season too, and that didn’t harm their numbers relative to those of their rivals.
Increased competition in the West should force Denver to traverse a trickier path to the Finals than it had a season ago. The Odds Machine thinks that Denver’s most likely first-round opponents are the Pelicans or Suns; the Nuggets would be favored against those teams, but they wouldn’t be easy knockouts. The 2023-24 Nuggets are also less likely to win home-court advantage, from which they benefited greatly a year ago.
3. Speaking of the race for the West’s no. 1 seed: A game back from the West’s top spot through Wednesday’s games, the Nuggets have only a 10 percent chance to finish no. 1 again. Ahead of them are the Timberwolves (44 percent) and Thunder (43 percent), with the Clippers’ recent swoon all but taking them out of the running for the top seed (3 percent).
The Timberwolves and Thunder actually project to finish with the same record, 56-26, but Minnesota has the tiniest edge for now because it’s likely to end the season with the tiebreaker over Oklahoma City. (The Timberwolves and Thunder split their season series, 2-2, but Minnesota has better divisional and conference records.)
Both of those teams are inexperienced in the playoffs but have the statistical markings of legitimate Finals contenders. The Thunder in particular stand out in this regard, despite their youth—like the Celtics, the Thunder rank in the top five on both offense and defense, which is historically the mark of a top-tier contender.
4. More intrigue lies further down in the Western Conference standings: The top 10 teams are mostly decided by this point, but the order in spots five through 10—and the scramble to avoid the play-in rounds—remains up in the air. Here are those six teams’ average win totals, according to the Odds Machine’s simulations, and their chances of landing in the play-in.
Odds Machine Projections for Middle of Western Conference
The Pelicans look like they’ll create some separation, but the order behind them is as murky as ever. This next chart further splits the play-in odds between the 7-vs.-8 matchup (which gives teams two chances to win once to qualify for the playoff field) and the 9-vs.-10 matchup (which requires teams to win two games in a row).
Odds Machine Projections for Middle of Western Conference
Golden State has been stuck in ninth place or below every day since mid-November, yet a hot streak and an easy remaining schedule mean the Warriors have about a 60 percent chance to break into the top eight, at least.
5. In the Eastern Conference, the no. 2 and no. 3 seeds are nearly set in stone: The Bucks and Cavaliers both have better than an 80 percent chance to finish second or third, in either order, with Milwaukee slightly favored to grab the no. 2 spot. But it probably doesn’t matter all that much which team wins that race for second, to secure home-court advantage in a potential second-round matchup; the more important part is that finishing second or third means avoiding the Celtics until the conference finals.
6. The middle of the Eastern Conference standings is much wilder: Four teams are sitting on the exact same number of losses through Wednesday’s games. Here’s the Eastern version of the chart showing the average win totals and play-in odds for fringier contenders:
Odds Machine Projections for Middle of Eastern Conference
Three of these five teams will automatically advance to the playoffs, while two will in all likelihood finish in the no. 7 and no. 8 spots and have to qualify via the play-in.
The Magic and Heat hold two narrow advantages for now. First, both Florida teams are much healthier than the reeling Knicks and the Joel Embiid–less 76ers. And second, both the Magic and Heat will enjoy easier remaining schedules than their rivals in the standings.
7. The back of the Eastern Conference play-in race is less compelling: It’s even more depressing than before because of how many injuries it now involves.
Odds Machine Projections for Bottom of Eastern Conference Play-In
Even though Trae Young is out for at least a month due to a torn ligament in his hand, the Hawks’ three-game lead over Brooklyn gives them the advantage to hold the East’s no. 10 seed. Meanwhile, Scottie Barnes’s broken hand just about puts an end to Toronto’s chances of catching up.
8. Finally, the bottom of the standings features a race for the best chance to land the no. 1 pick: As a reminder, the flatter lottery odds mean that the three worst teams in the league will all have an identical 14 percent chance to pick first in the draft this summer.
The Wizards and Pistons are near locks to finish with bottom-three records, but the third spot is up for grabs. Right now, the Hornets have two more wins than the Spurs, but better underlying numbers for San Antonio suggest that order might flip by the end of the season. The Odds Machine projects the Hornets to finish with 19.0 wins on average; the Spurs are at 19.5.
Zacht of the Week: 16 Consecutive Losses (Again)
The trend of long losing streaks this season has continued. A few months after the Pistons lost a league-record 28 straight games (at the same time that the Spurs lost 18 in a row), Washington lost its 16th consecutive contest on Wednesday.
Since securing their only winning streak of the season in late January—a whopping two-gamer, with wins over those Pistons and Spurs—the Wizards haven’t won a single game. Their last win came a day after the AFC and NFC championship games.
This isn’t the first season with three different losing streaks of such length. The 1993-94 Mavericks, who finished with a 13-69 record, had three separate streaks of at least 16 games all by themselves! (At least all that losing landed them the no. 2 pick and Jason Kidd.)
Seasons With at Least Three 15-Game Losing Streaks
Most of the previous examples in this chart involved either recent expansion teams or repeat offenders, like those ’94 Mavericks. Not 2023-24, though—this season’s losing comes with no such caveats, only largely unwatchable basketball. And if the Wizards reach 18 losses in a row, the 2023-24 season will be only the second ever—along with 1981-82—with three 18-game streaks.
This collection of awfulness produces some remarkable statistics. For instance, even if you removed the Pistons’ 28-game losing streak from their ledger, they’d still be only 9-24, which converts to a 60-loss pace over 82 games. In other words, Detroit would be threatening the worst record in the league in a normal season even if it hadn’t suffered a record-setting losing streak.
And the Wizards might be even worse! On the one hand, Washington has suffered from a horrendous schedule during its losing streak: Every single opponent during this stretch has had a winning record. On the other hand, Washington has benefited from the best opponent shooting luck during its streak, as opposing shooters have hit only 35 percent of their wide-open 3-pointers, the lowest mark in the league—yet the Wizards have still lost every game.
Washington’s streak should end soon, if only because the Wizards’ schedule lightens up considerably with upcoming games against the Hornets and injury-ravaged Grizzlies. But keep an eye on their game scheduled for March 29, just in case the streak continues that long: That would be loss no. 28 in a row for Washington, in a matchup against—who else—Detroit.
Take That for Data: When Iso Ball Works
Isolations have never been the most efficient play in basketball. Other play types leverage motion, spacing, and man advantages into open looks; isolations force a player to beat an up-close defender without help from their teammates.
Some players are so skilled, of course, that they can routinely translate those opportunities into points. Players like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: The most efficient isolation team in the league is the Thunder, who average 1.07 points per iso, according to Synergy data on NBA.com. SGA knows he can torch opponents one-on-one, so he turns to this route a lot; the Thunder rank fifth in isolation frequency.
Or players like Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, whose frequent forays have helped Dallas to the second-best isolation scoring mark in the league, at 1.06 points per iso. The Mavericks also rank second in isolation frequency. Or players like James Harden, Kawhi Leonard, and Paul George, teammates who are all prolific mano-a-mano scorers. The Clippers rank third in isolation efficiency, at 1.05 points per iso, and lead the league in attempts.
In sum, the three most efficient isolation teams all rank in the top five in isolation frequency, and the two other teams in the top five—the 76ers and Celtics—also score at an above-average rate out of this play type.
This relationship epitomizes a broader truth about modern basketball: One reason that offenses are better than ever is that offenses are smarter than ever and thus better equipped to lean into their strengths or steer away from their weaknesses. The teams that can isolate effectively do so; the teams that can’t don’t. Isolations are like post-ups or midrange jumpers—for most players, they don’t produce easy points, so only the very best still have the freedom to engage.
The most iso-heavy teams this season share another common trait: They generally built rosters to spread the floor with shooters around their iso-happy stars. The Thunder, Clippers, and Celtics all rank among the top four teams in 3-point accuracy this season, which makes it easier for drivers like SGA and Jayson Tatum to get downhill.
And looking forward to the playoffs, these teams’ ability to generate tough buckets could prove even more valuable. Against locked-in playoff defenses, offenses are forced to rely more on isolation possessions.
Percentage of Possessions That End in Isolation Play
Over the past three years, isolation frequency has increased by about a third in the playoffs compared to the regular season—even when controlling for the kind of team that plays and advances in the postseason. The above chart calculates a regular-season average weighted by number of playoff possessions; if we instead compared the playoff average to the overall regular-season average, the increase would be even larger, at 42 percent.
Fast Breaks
Let’s wrap up today’s Session by hopping around the league to highlight four players who have caught my eye with their recent performances.
1. Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat
Forget paying attention to Punxsutawney Phil—you know that springtime is almost here because Butler has awoken in Miami.
Through Butler’s first 30 games this season, up through January 25, the Heat playoff hero was averaging only 21 points, five rebounds, and four assists per game on 49 percent shooting. But in his past 12 contests, Butler’s at 25 points, seven rebounds, and six assists per game on 56 percent shooting (including 53 percent from distance).
Over that stretch, the only players to average so many points, rebounds, and assists aside from Butler are Luka Doncic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Nikola Jokic.
Butler’s hot streak coincides with his team’s surge up the standings: Miami is 9-2 in its last 11 games (some of which Butler missed), with its only losses coming in close games against Boston and Denver. The Heat, as ever, lurk as a playoff threat.
2. Trey Murphy III, New Orleans Pelicans
Point Zion looks great, Herb Jones has developed a jumper (44 percent from 3!), and the roster is finally healthy. But there’s one more reason that the Pelicans are 11-4 since suffering a three-game losing streak at the end of April, with a top-five winning percentage and net rating in that span.
Murphy is the rare two-way talent on a roster populated mainly by offensive stars and shutdown defenders. And the third-year wing has started playing much more of late. Through mid-February, Murphy had played at least 30 minutes in just three games all season. But starting on February 14, he eclipsed 30 minutes six games in a row, and he fell short of 30 in his last two games only because the Pelicans were cruising to blowout wins.
Murphy doesn’t start when the Pelicans are at full strength, but he’s a vital member of the roster. He’s explosive around the rim, effective beyond the arc (38 percent this season, 39 percent in his career), and disruptive on defense. New Orleans has a net rating of plus-10.5 when he’s on the court this season; among the team’s rotation players, only Jose Alvarado rates better by that metric.
3. Josh Hart, New York Knicks
I’m sorry, Knicks fans—since I claimed on February 1 that this was the “best Knicks team in 30 years,” the team has gone just 5-9. “It would be a shame—and, tragically, all too fitting for the franchise—if the best Knicks team in 30 years were derailed by injuries,” I wrote, before injuries did indeed send this team off the rails.
But not all is lost in New York, especially if OG Anunoby and Jalen Brunson return soon. (Julius Randle’s injury timeline seems less defined.) And the silver lining of this stretch, if one exists, is that it has allowed role players like Hart, Donte DiVincenzo, and Isaiah Hartenstein to take on bigger roles that could benefit them down the line, once they fall back down the roster’s pecking order.
Hart in particular is a recent standout. Typically a fill-in-the-gaps glue guy, he’s adjusted to his heavier burden with aplomb: Hart has scored in double figures in seven consecutive games, while—in Thibsian fashion—playing 40-plus minutes every time.
Even more impressive is Hart’s rebounding, as he grabbed 37 boards across two games (!) last week. A 13-point, 19-rebound, 10-assist triple-double from a player listed at 6-foot-4 is a thing of beauty. Hart ranks eighth in rebounds per game since the All-Star break. Everyone ahead of him is a center; nobody shorter than 6-foot-7 is within even three rebounds of Hart’s average over that span.
4. Ayo Dosunmu, Chicago Bulls
Dosunmu offers another silver lining in a dreary situation, this time in Chicago, where Coby White’s emergence as a lead guard was just about the only positive for a team headed straight for another play-in berth.
Dosunmu has always had speed and athleticism on his side, but a shaky shot meant he looked destined for a bench role long term. His ceiling looks a lot higher now: Dosunmu was a 34 percent 3-point shooter across his first two seasons, but he’s up to 40 percent on greater volume this season.
Almost all of that improvement has come in the past two months. Through his first 38 games this season, Dosunmu averaged eight points and two assists per game while making 35 percent of his 3-point attempts. In 22 games since, while playing more minutes, he’s doubled his averages to 16 points and four assists per game while shooting 45 percent from distance.
A good rule of thumb in NBA analysis is to never get too excited about a shooter’s hot streak (or, conversely, too dispirited by a slump). Dosunmu might soon crash back to earth. But White hasn’t, and he and Dosunmu look like a fun, young, exciting backcourt tandem of the future. Imagine—fun and youth and excitement in Chicago! The Bulls need the spark that Ayo provides.
