Editor’s note: This piece previously listed Mike Evans in the dream free agency section, but shortly after publication, he signed a new two-year deal to stay with Tampa Bay.
Indianapolis treated the NFL world to yet another excellent scouting combine. The weather was nice, the events were walkable, and the steakhouses were … steak-y.
With the obligatory nod to everyone’s favorite Midwestern city aside, let’s get into the red meat (hey-o!) of the week: the NFL combine. I have 10 notes—some theories, some reports, some musings, some takeaways—from my week in Indianapolis, ranging from the upcoming free agent class to the 2024 NFL draft just around the corner.
Opting out of the combine continues to become a trend.
If it feels like more players than ever opted out of testing, well, I don’t have the numbers on that—but it’s about the third or fourth consecutive combine when things have felt this way. This is clearly becoming a trend.
Two of the top players in the draft opted out at rather unprecedented levels last week. USC quarterback Caleb Williams, projected to be the first pick, opted out of all medical testing. While the drills are televised and the podium sessions are shared by the media, the medical testing is really the critical part of the combine—it gives teams their first, unimpeded look at the physical health of all the prospects they might select.
Now, most teams won’t get a look at that for Caleb. In explaining his decision to pass on all medical testing in Indianapolis, Williams said “not all 32 teams can draft me, so why give all 32 teams my personal medical things?” Williams will instead undergo medical testing with those teams that he meets with individually during the predraft process—i.e., teams willing to spend one of their 30 exclusive visits on Williams.
Williams’s quote reminds me of Deion Sanders’s when he met with the New York Giants at the 1989 combine. When the Giants gave him a long test, Sanders asked, “What pick do you have in the draft?” and when the Giants told him 10th, he said, “I’ll be gone before then. I’ll see y’all later,” and left.
Williams, like Deion, is using his near certainty of a high draft selection to pass on parts of the process that other prospects can’t. The same is true of Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., who did not work out in Indy. While almost all of his contemporaries in the 2024 NFL draft learned how to run fast 40-yard dashes, eke an extra inch out of their broad jump, and pack on empty weight to tip the scales a little more favorably, Harrison simply … focused on football.
As Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated reported: “All signs show Harrison’s plan is to continue working out in Columbus, Ohio, with Buckeye strength and conditioning tycoon Mickey Marotti, among others, to prepare not to run a 40-yard dash, but play football in the fall.”
Harrison was slated to speak to the media at the combine, but no-showed his podium. Cris Carter tweeted that Harrison was stuck in a full-body scan during his medical assessment, along with a picture of … I guess a screen that hides an MRI machine? It’s unclear.
Regardless, Harrison joins Williams in an intentional, untraditional approach to the scouting combine—and I personally love it. It’s easy to see these opt-outs as juvenile acts of rebellion from ungrateful athletes—and I fear there will be some in the league who think just that. But there is an enormous difference between the hoops that you and I have to jump through in our job interviews, and the ones presented to truly elite athletes who will not just make millions of dollars, but also have already made millions of dollars, and will help make the owners of the franchises that draft them millions upon millions of dollars. The rules here are different.
The NFL’s predraft process is meant not to create an equal evaluation of all prospects, but rather to winnow the draft board for each team. Medical checks knock off or downgrade those prospects with concerning risks of (re)injury. Positional drills help disqualify athletes of insufficient size, speed, strength, and agility for league play. Harrison and Williams are saying “this part of the process isn’t built for us and doesn’t benefit us”—and they’re absolutely right.
Still, the NFL will be scared of the repercussions. The schedule has been reorganized and tinkered with over the past several years to make the combine even more of a television draw than it already is—but when two projected top-five picks at the two sexiest positions don’t work out, the television draw starts to wane. And they weren’t the only ones to opt out of on-field workouts: so did North Carolina QB Drake Maye, LSU QB Jayden Daniels, LSU receiver Malik Nabers, and Georgia tight end Brock Bowers. Those players are all potential top-five picks as well.
I am not sure how the NFL incentivizes participation in the combine. I am not sure how the NFL convinces bona fide blue-chip draft picks who will go in the top 10 barring catastrophic injury or off-field issues that any participation in the predraft process is worthwhile. But the combine is taking on water from all sides. Athletes First told the players they represent to pass on all cognitive testing following the C.J. Stroud drama last year. Multiple head coaches, for yet another year, didn’t come to the event at all. The scouting process needs some freshening up, or participation across the board will continue to suffer.
Could the no. 1 pick be on the move again?
I can’t shake the feeling that Washington (who currently owns the second pick) is going to explore trades with Chicago (who currently owns the first pick). The reasons are obvious: Washington would really like to draft Caleb Williams, the D.C.-born quarterback who played under current Commanders offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury last season at USC.
Here’s NFL Network’s Peter Schrager asking new Commanders GM Adam Peters about just that:
Not a no! (Not really an answer on anything, but still: not a no.)
The idea of a 1-for-2 trade is fascinating. The first pick has been traded only 13 times, and it has never been traded for a package involving the no. 2 pick. In the most recent trades of the top overall selection, Carolina moved from no. 9 to no. 1 last year in their trade with the Bears, and in 2016 the Rams went from no. 15 to no. 1 to get Jared Goff.
Would moving just from no. 2 to no. 1 decrease the price? From the conversations I had this week, it seems unlikely. One team executive I spoke to said he’d start by asking for two first-round picks and a second-round pick—just shy of the capital the 49ers gave up when they moved from 12th to third to draft Trey Lance a few years ago. Another executive said at least two firsts. A third said he would refuse to set a price, and force the team trading up from no. 2 to start making the offer—then he’d just ask for more.
Here’s another wrinkle: One of those front office fellas told me the Bears could make that deal only if they weren’t taking a quarterback at no. 2, because moving back to take a franchise quarterback would send the wrong message to both that quarterback and the team. But could Chicago really say no to multiple extra picks—let’s say a future first and a future second—when it still gets to draft a franchise quarterback? That’s tough.
Also possible: The Bears stay at no. 1, draft Caleb Williams, and subsequently trade him to another team later in the draft. Think of the Eli Manning–Philip Rivers trade in 2004. The Chargers selected Manning with the first pick, even though Manning had made it clear to the Chargers he didn’t want to play there, prompting San Diego to trade him to the Giants for fourth overall pick Philip Rivers—along with a third, a future first, and a future fifth. Would the Bears draft Williams even if they favored another quarterback, like Drake Maye—and then force Washington to send a future first and some extra capital on top to swap the players? I’m not ruling anything out.
This is the year to get a nickel corner.
You’ve probably already heard that it’s a great class for offensive linemen (it is utterly amazing) and wide receivers (it’s great, but probably a little gassed at this point). The third position that I think is both rich and deep? Slot cornerback.
The headliner is Michigan’s Mike Sainristil. A two-way player in college who initially landed at Michigan as a receiver, Sainristil switched to defense only in 2022 after the departure of Dax Hill, a first-rounder in that year’s draft selected by the Bengals. At 5-foot-9 and 182 pounds, Sainristil is pretty much limited to the slot on an NFL defense—but he’s quick as a wink, super explosive, and has the ball skills expected of an ex–wide receiver. Only one player ran a quicker short shuttle than Sainristil (4.01 seconds), and he looked smooth as butter in the gauntlet drill.
But even beyond Sainristil, there are some great prospects. Rutgers corner Max Melton, brother of Packers wide receiver Bo Melton, rose over the course of a strong Senior Bowl week and rose again in Indianapolis, where he ran a sub 4.4-second 40-yard dash and jumped over 40 inches. Kentucky’s Andru Phillips hasn’t started much and played primarily on the outside, but his traits translate better to the interior, where his toughness and explosiveness would be welcome. Both Florida State corners, Renardo Green and Jarrian Jones, might be better suited on the interior, as may be the case for Missouri’s Ennis Rakestraw Jr., currently viewed as a late first-round prospect.
If you’re a team with a need at slot corner and you walk out of this draft without a solution, I don’t know what you were looking at.
J.J. McCarthy may be QB3.
It is smoke-screen season, and I very well may be getting hooked by it. But in Indianapolis, I heard significantly more interest and excitement for how high Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy might go relative to how high LSU QB Jayden Daniels might go.
My sense is that Daniels is not locked into an early draft slot and that the league has turned its attention elsewhere. McCarthy is a strong candidate to go before Daniels in April.
Rome Odunze is not scared to compete.
I think this class has four elite pass catchers. Three of them opted out of testing: Nabers, Harrison, and Bowers. The fourth—Washington wide receiver Rome Odunze—didn’t just take the field this weekend. He refused to leave it.
Is this a little performative? Yes. Am I eating it up anyway? Yes. Odunze has been a favorite of mine in this class since I watched his film, and all of his testing affirmed what I’ve long believed: that he can be a star wide receiver in the NFL. This is a lofty comparison, but here goes: I wrote down the name Davante Adams more than a few times when watching Odunze, and Odunze compares favorably to the All-Pro. They have similar jumps, 10-yard splits, and agility drills, while Rome is 2 inches taller and 0.11 seconds faster in the 40.
The easy releases and clean footwork, the ability to win separation and also catch through contact, the early adjustments to the football … there’s something about Odunze that just screams “star wideout” to me.
Anyway, here he is doing a gainer.
Amarius Mims is the biggest and bestest guy.
The best athlete on the field in Indianapolis, pound for pound, was unquestionably Amarius Mims. The 6-foot-8, 340-pound tackle out of Georgia has the same wingspan (86 and 3/4 inches) as Giannis Antetokounmpo—it’s the third largest for an offensive lineman in NFL combine history. Mims isn’t just staggeringly sized—he also carries his frame beautifully. This isn’t a flabby 340—it’s an athletic 340.
Sometimes, it’s fun to watch the combine and just be flabbergasted by the caliber of athlete that exists in the world. This is one of those times.
Want another one? Here’s Texas WR Xavier Worthy’s record-setting 40-yard dash.
What will happen with Kirk Cousins is a real mystery.
On the list of journalists capable of sourcing the details of Kirk Cousins’s impending free agency, trust me, I’m at the bottom. But here’s what I believe to be true: Nobody really knows what’s going to happen with Kirk just yet, including Kirk.
I think Minnesota will give him an offer lower than what he’ll likely get in free agency. Accordingly, I think he’ll hit the open market. I think he’ll get offers from several teams—Atlanta, Pittsburgh, Las Vegas, and Tampa Bay are all in play. But I have no idea what those price tags will look like, as Cousins is a 35-year-old quarterback who has never really been a top-10 passer, but is certainly a top-20 passer, and is coming off an Achilles tear. Kirk could have multiple teams vying for his services, and his price will skyrocket accordingly.
There could be one big buyer, and this is all over before the league year really kicks off. There could be no huge contracts waiting for him, and Cousins indeed does take a fair deal in Minnesota. I think this is a real wait and see for most parties involved.
(Watch the Cousins news break, like, four minutes after you read this.)
A new landing spot has emerged for Justin Fields.
Fields’s market is waiting on Cousins’s market. One landing spot for Fields that I haven’t seen mentioned much anywhere, but that I really like, is Cleveland. I don’t think the Browns have a good quarterback on the roster (see: all of Deshaun Watson’s film since he returned from suspension). They would benefit from a low-risk, high-reward swing on the upside of Fields. If they find a starter in Fields, they can escape out of the back door of what is proving to be a catastrophically bad Watson contract.
We know that Cleveland is interested in mobile quarterbacks. (Josh Dobbs, P.J. Walker, and Dorian Thompson-Robinson were all either in camp or starting games for them last season.) We know that analytically minded general manager Andrew Berry should always be interested in high-upside gambles at the quarterback position. And we know that new OC Ken Dorsey has worked with a big-bodied, physical QB runner before in Buffalo with Josh Allen. The fit is good.
If there isn’t a clear starting job available for Fields on the open market, I think the Browns are a good option for his career and for their future.
My dream free agency.
If Roger Goodell hands me a Mad Libs script for free agency in a couple of weeks and asks me to fill in the blanks, here are some fits I’d like to see.
Jon Greenard in Detroit: Greenard is a gritty three-down edge rusher who excels at maintaining good rush lanes and maximizing his teammates—and hey, he’ll grab eight or nine sacks in the process. He’s an ideal pairing with star weakside rusher Aidan Hutchinson in Detroit.
Tyron Smith to the Jets: Many have called Smith a future Chief, and that would be an excellent landing spot. But the Jets have a perpetually shaky line and desperately need surety at tackle when Aaron Rodgers returns from his Achilles injury. Smith, who is still playing well, gives the Jets the flexibility to attack a different position (receiver?) at pick 10 come draft time.
Josh Jacobs in Houston: Underneath all of the C.J. Stroud highlights, the Texans committed hard to the run last season—unsurprising, given OC Bobby Slowik’s background in San Francisco with Kyle Shanahan. Improved play from their backfield would get more juice out of those handoffs, and Jacobs—not Saquon Barkley, in my opinion—is the best pure runner available on the market. (Barkley would be kinda sick, too.)
Jadeveon Clowney in Seattle: Why wouldn’t Clowney follow old DC Mike Macdonald to Seattle, where the Seahawks desperately need run defenders off the edge? That’s Clowney’s specialty, and hey—all those eager fans who bought his Seahawks jersey in 2019 would prove vindicated five years later.
Christian Wilkins in Cleveland: A star defensive tackle is the final piece missing in an otherwise elite puzzle for Jim Schwartz’s unit in Cleveland. While the rotation of Dalvin Tomlinson, Jordan Elliott, Shelby Harris, and Mo Hurst got the job done in 2023, three of those four players are not under contract for 2024. Think about what Schwartz did for Fletcher Cox and Jeffery Simmons, and now slap it on Wilkins’s profile.
Overrated and underrated.
I ended the column with this segment last year, and it did fairly well. I had Anton Harrison, BJ Ojulari, and Will McDonald all in my underrated section—all eventual top-50 picks. My overrated section had some top picks, like Emmanuel Forbes and JuJu Brents—but those players didn’t perform as well in their rookie seasons.
Here’s my list again. (I am using the consensus big board from the NFL Mock Draft Database for my estimation of the general stock of a player, so if it turns out you already love all of the underrated players and hate the overrated ones, congratulations—you are ready to be an NFL scout.)
Underrated:
- West Virginia OL Zach Frazier
- Michigan LB Junior Colson
- Western Michigan edge Marshawn Kneeland
- USC RB MarShawn Lloyd
Overrated:
- Oregon WR Troy Franklin
- Penn State edge Chop Robinson
- Clemson CB Nate Wiggins
- Oklahoma OT Tyler Guyton