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Making Sense of the AFC’s Most Confounding Teams

Even 11 weeks into the NFL season, it’s hard to know whether fringe playoff teams like the Steelers, Chargers, and Bills are trending in the right direction or about to fall apart. But all have offered some clues about where they might end up.

By Steven RuizNov. 20, 2023, 5:24 pm UTC • 12 min

It’s that time of the year. Thanksgiving is days away, and December is close behind. Two months from now, we’ll be in the thick of the NFL playoffs, and this is the part of the season when we can start to pare down the number of teams we have to pay attention to. True contenders are rounding into form, the pretenders are falling away, and the hopeless are finally accepting their fate and looking toward next year. 

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In the NFC, the playoff hierarchy is pretty much set, with the Eagles at the top, the 49ers and Lions battling it out for the 2-seed, and the Cowboys leading a pack of wild-card teams that pose little threat. But sorting out the mess in the AFC, where nearly half the conference is at or within a game of .500, feels next to impossible. 

That won’t stop us from trying. After an eventful Sunday, we’re looking at the most confounding teams in the AFC and trying to determine how things are trending for the stretch run: Are they coming together, falling apart, or already done for? 

Buffalo Bills (6-5)

It worked! Looking to jump-start an offense that had fallen into a rut, the Bills fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey on Tuesday. They replaced him with former Panthers OC Joe Brady—and then immediately hung 32 points on the Jets defense, which had given up 30 points once all season. Buffalo’s 32-6 win wasn’t enough to get it back into the AFC’s top seven, but the offense passed a crucial vibes check in Brady’s first crack at calling the plays. 

What did Brady do differently this week? For starters, he kept his turnover-prone unit in check—the lone giveaway came on a Hail Mary attempt at the end of the first half. And he was also gifted an improved field position by the defense and special teams: Buffalo’s average starting field position was its own 38 on Sunday; entering the game, it had ranked 21st in the NFL, typically starting around the 27.4-yard line, per TruMedia. Brady also called more runs than his predecessor, but the lopsided game script contributed to that. 

Outside of that, the new offense was the same as the old offense. There were a few more designed QB runs for Josh Allen—Allen ran QB power and QB counter for the first time all season, which will please fans who were clamoring to get him more involved in the run game. But those new plays gained 2 yards on two attempts. That was the overarching theme of Brady’s debut: slightly different and not nearly as efficient. Buffalo put a nice, round number on the scoreboard, but this was hardly an improvement in terms of efficiency. The Bills posted their second-worst success rate of the season on Sunday, per TruMedia; their second-worst passing success rate; their third-worst rushing success rate; and their second-worst rushing EPA. On a down-to-down basis, the offense was better in the performance that ultimately cost Dorsey his job—outside of the turnovers, of course.

The Bills were due for some positive regression, and it finally hit this week. Does that mean the team’s problems—most of which fall on the defensive side of the ball—were solved because of a dominant performance against Zach Wilson and Tim Boyle? Probably not. But it might be a sign that this team is ready to start acting like adults again and make the playoffs. That’s when their deep-seated issues will pop up again.  

Verdict: Coming together (only to eventually fall apart).

Los Angeles Chargers (4-6)

Even if you didn’t watch this week’s Chargers-Packers game, you can probably guess how it went. Just think of every ridiculous loss you’ve seen the Chargers have over the past, I don’t know, 20 years, and you’ll get the gist. There were several dropped passes on third down, Austin Ekeler found a new and hilarious way to cough up points, rookie receiver Quentin Johnston ended any debates about whether he’s a bust with a comprehensively terrible performance, and, of course, the defense facilitated a game-winning Packers drive by missing tackles and committing a poorly timed penalty. In other words, it was a Chargers game. 

Let’s check in on Brandon Staley to see how the embattled coach is taking this latest heartbreaker: 

Yikes! That sounds like a man who is worried about his job, and he should be. After allowing Jordan Love to rack up more than 300 passing yards, Staley’s defense now ranks 31st in total defense and EPA allowed and is tied for 23rd in scoring. The Chargers are 4-6 and sitting in last place in a mediocre AFC West. With Justin Herbert playing at an elite level, it’s too early to completely write this team off—L.A. was in a similar spot at this time last year and rallied—but time is running out. For both the season and Staley, who may not survive the month. 

The fact that Herbert is playing so well and the team still isn’t winning is probably the biggest red flag in a field full of them. His performance against the admittedly poor Packers defense was one of the more impressive displays of quarterbacking of the 2023 season, and it was wasted. The numbers aren’t overly stunning—21-of-36 for 260 yards and a pair of touchdowns—but nearly every incompletion he threw hit a Chargers receiver in the hands or was the result of a miscommunication or slip. 

And then there were the plays he did make, including what should have been the game-winning score if not for another late-game meltdown by Staley’s defense. 

Over the past two weeks, Herbert has led all quarterbacks in total EPA. And he’s also third in EPA per dropback, fourth in success rate, and seventh in yards per dropback. Yet Los Angeles is 0-2 in those games. If the Chargers can’t turn these QB performances into wins, then there’s little hope for the future. As good as Herbert is, this level of play is just not sustainable. 

I will say this about the Staley clip: He’s right that the defensive play-calling isn’t the issue. The Chargers defense won’t play any better if it runs some more Cover 3 or whatever. The unit’s problems run deep. It’s an undisciplined group that features mediocre talent and poor fundamentals. A change at play caller won’t fix any of that. A change at head coach might yield better results—but not in 2023.  

Verdict: It’s over.

Miami Dolphins (7-3)

The 2023 Dolphins seem like a much different team than the one we saw in 2022, but you wouldn’t know it by comparing the standings after 10 games. At this point last year, Miami was 7-3 and leading the AFC East. And after a disconcertingly competitive 20-13 win over the Raiders on Sunday, the Dolphins are once again 7-3 and in first place in the division. 

The easiest improvement to point to this season is the defense, which is being led by first-year coordinator Vic Fangio. But while recent results suggest that Fangio has his unit playing at a high level—especially now that Jalen Ramsey is back and pulling off acrobatic interceptions—the overall results aren’t that much better than they were a year ago. The primary difference can actually be found on offense. Specifically on third down, where Tua Tagovailoa’s numbers have regressed:

On other downs on Sunday, Mike McDaniel’s offense moved the ball well. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle got open often, and Tagovailoa got them the ball on time and on target. But on third down, things fell apart. Tagovailoa was hurried, he made some poor throws on the move, and the group converted just 3 of 11 attempts. 

Ordinarily, this would be a big cause for concern. It’s difficult to win in January with a passing game that can’t convert on third down, but the numbers suggest that Tagovailoa and the Dolphins should be able to balance things out after a wild swing in luck. Last season, Tagovailoa didn’t throw a single interception on third down. He’s already thrown five in this season while sporting a lower turnover-worthy play rate, per Pro Football Focus. He didn’t get punished for those mistakes a year ago; this year, he’s been disproportionately dinged for them. 

Outside of that one statistical category, the Dolphins are a much better team this season, even if the vibes aren’t nearly as good as they were last year. The run game is better, the early-down pass game is significantly improved, the defense is ascending, and this team has an extra year of experience under its belt. There have been some rough spots of late, but the Dolphins are one of the more complete teams in the NFL, and that will become more obvious if and when their third-down luck improves. 

Verdict: Coming together.

New York Jets (4-6, third in the AFC East)

Aaron Rodgers hasn’t played a snap since early September, but he keeps finding himself in headlines on Sundays. That was true once against this weekend thanks to a couple of insider reports. The first came from Jay Glazer, who said Rodgers is targeting an early December return to practice after sending the Jets “mind-blowing” footage of his workouts. Then Ian Rapoport gave us a timetable for a possible return to the field: Week 16 against the Commanders. That would be 15 weeks, or just under four months, since the 39-year-old Rodgers suffered a torn Achilles in the Jets’ season opener. 

Presumably, the 4-6 Jets would have to remain in the playoff race for Rodgers to return this season. Otherwise, it wouldn’t make much sense to put him on that infamous MetLife Stadium turf. New York has five games between now and that date: three straight at home against Miami, Atlanta, and Houston, followed by a road rematch in Miami and a home game against Washinton. This team has scored a single touchdown in its past 15 possessions. Even the dominant defense, which has valiantly kept New York afloat while Zach Wilson has pretended to play quarterback, is starting to buckle under the weight of a non-viable offense. Robert Saleh finally benched Wilson on Sunday in favor of Tim Boyle (who was only supposed to be on this team to laugh at Rodgers’s jokes), and though he was noncommittal after the game about who’d be starting going forward, Saleh does appear ready to try something different. 

I can’t believe I’m saying this, but a 40-year-old returning from a catastrophic injury in three months is the most plausible path to the Jets making the postseason. 

Verdict: Falling apart

Denver Broncos (5-5)

A month ago, we were all laughing at Sean Payton and the Broncos—and with good reason. Payton’s team had lost to Zach Wilson and Nathaniel Hackett months after Payton said the latter had done one of the worst coaching jobs in NFL history. His defense had given up 70 points to a Dolphins team that could have gone for the single-game scoring record if Mike McDaniel were just a smidge more petty. And Russell Wilson was still playing like a guy who’d forgotten how to quarterback, which was a bad sign for a coach who’s been hailed as a QB fixer. 

But after a thrilling (at least by Sunday’s standards) 21-20 win over the Vikings, Payton’s Broncos have won four in a row and now sit at 5-5. They’re just one game back of the Steelers for the final playoff spot in the AFC; Vance Joseph’s defense has unfucked itself; and Payton has Wilson playing his best ball in years. If the voting were held today, Payton would likely garner more than a few votes for coach of the year. 

But what has really changed for the offense, and, more importantly, its $200 million quarterback? The answer is complicated, but the simplest way to put it is that Payton has made first down a lot easier for Wilson. Wilson’s statistical splits by down almost fully explain his improvement under Payton. Outside of first down, he’s been quite bad in 2023:

The split has only become more pronounced over the past few games, so this isn’t an issue Denver is slowly figuring out. If anything, Payton is leaning into the strategy and doing even more to punish defenses on first down. 

Coaches often get too much credit for the work their players are doing, but the opposite may be true in Denver. First down is when offensive scheme tends to matter most—that’s when you often see play-action shots and screen passes, the plays designed to gain more yards after catch. It’s also when quarterbacks tend to see fewer complex looks from the defense. Third down is when the quarterbacks cook, but those early downs are the time for coaches to shine. And Payton is shining. 

Since Week 6, when Denver’s season turned for the better, Wilson is third in EPA per pass play on first down and he’s the only qualified quarterback who hasn’t been sacked on first down over that span, according to TruMedia. Overall, Wilson is on pace for his lowest first-down sack rate since 2019, his last truly great season. This may not be the Russ we knew at the peak of his powers, but Payton has concocted a similar offensive formula, and it seems to be working. 

The unit’s one obvious area of improvement has been the screen game, where Payton has always excelled. Wilson’s screen passes to running backs have produced 7.4 EPA this season. Going back to 2019, which is as far back as TruMedia’s screen stats go, Wilson has not finished a season with a positive EPA on screen passes. That should change thanks to Payton, who has provided his quarterback with as many easy buttons as possible. 

While things are certainly looking up, we should pump the brakes on the Broncos optimism a little bit. One visit to Wilson’s Spotrac page will provide a healthy splash of cold water, and there’s also the question of sustainability. Defenses will eventually catch on to Payton’s tricks and start making things harder for Wilson on first down. If we don’t see more growth on second and third down, things will get ugly again for this offense. 

Verdict: Coming together (kind of)

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4)

If I were a Steelers fan, I wouldn’t consume any analysis about my team. Instead of searching the internet for content, I’d simply pull up the league standings, stare at the win-loss column for a few minutes, and then go about my day. I’d probably look at some defensive stats or watch some T.J. Watt highlights, too, but that would be the extent of it. Because viewing this team through any other lens gets depressing in a hurry. 

I’m not going to waste my time reviewing all of the underlying metrics that suggest Pittsburgh’s 6-4 record is fake. I won’t mention the team’s minus-29 point differential (oops) or its unsustainable performance in one-score games, which started to turn on Sunday with a 13-10 loss to Cleveland. But, unfortunately, we will have to talk about Kenny Pickett, whose career is off to a record-setting start—just not in a good way.

I don’t know if we need any analysis here. The super sad onslaught of Pickett stats after he went 15-of-28 for 106 yards in the loss against the Browns tells the story:

That’s not good. 

That’s rough. 

Damn. 

Oh, C’MON. 

This clearly isn’t working out, for either party, and while it’s easy to blame Matt Canada’s play-calling or a bad offensive line for Pickett’s shortcomings, they do not fully explain the historically inept numbers he’s producing. Canada isn’t the worst offensive coordinator in the history of the league. This isn’t the worst offensive line in NFL history, either. The quarterback is the main problem and will continue to be the biggest obstacle in the team’s path to the playoffs. Starting Mitch Trubisky isn’t going to change that, but he can’t be this bad, right? 

Verdict: It’s over, no matter what the standings say. 

Steven Ruiz

Steven Ruiz has been an NFL analyst and QB ranker at The Ringer since 2021. He’s a D.C. native who roots for all the local teams except for the Commanders. As a child, he knew enough ball to not pick the team owned by Dan Snyder—but not enough to avoid choosing the Panthers.