Week 9 was fantastic. Texans rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud put on a show against the Bucs, the NFL world fell in love with Joshua Dobbs, Eagles-Cowboys delivered a thriller, and the Ravens continued to roll. What’s in store for Week 10? Let’s get to the picks!
Lines are from FanDuel as of Thursday morning. Stats are from TruMedia and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted.
Week 9 record: 8-6
Season record: 67-66-3
Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears (-3)
Bryce Young stank last week. There’s no two ways about it. The Panthers were down 20-10 early in the fourth quarter and were driving in Indianapolis territory when he threw his second pick-six of the game. Young averaged 4.4 yards per attempt and threw three interceptions. Just a complete disaster.
But we should know better than to draw conclusions after a quarterback’s first seven starts. Trevor Lawrence completed 59.6 percent of his passes and threw eight touchdowns and nine interceptions in his first seven starts. Now, he’s considered one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks. I’m not saying Young will turn into Lawrence, but NFL history is littered with good quarterbacks who had bad rookie seasons and bad quarterbacks who had good rookie seasons. It’s a hard transition! I’ll go ahead and give Young some time.
As for the Bears, Justin Fields is listed as doubtful for this game. Remember, the Bears own the Panthers’ first-round pick. Right now, that would be no. 2. What would be a more Bears thing to do than lose this game and create a logjam of two-win teams? Give me Carolina.
The pick: Panthers (+3)
Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (+1.5)
The Patriots are 2-7 and unraveling. Last week against the Commanders, starting cornerbacks Jack Jones and J.C. Jackson began the game on the bench. The Athletic’s Chad Graff wrote an excellent piece on the Patriots’ dysfunction, and this passage was an eyebrow-raiser:
After the game, Jones liked a tweet (since removed) saying that he should’ve pled guilty (presumably to the charges he faced for bringing loaded guns to the airport at the outset of this season), implying that the alternative is better than this current situation with the Patriots.
Graff reported that Jackson won’t even make the trip to Germany for this game.
The Colts, meanwhile, broke a three-game losing streak with a win at Carolina. Unfortunately, they also took the lead for the most cringeworthy video of the 2023 season.
You should not gamble on this game. I’m making a pick only because I have to.
The pick: Colts (-1.5)
San Francisco 49ers at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3)
I don’t know whether this is controversial, but I’m far more concerned about the 49ers defense than the 49ers offense. Yes, they need to score more points—the 17 per game they’ve averaged during this three-game losing streak won’t cut it. But offensively, you can make the case that they’re getting a little unlucky. The 49ers are first in offensive DVOA and first in success rate. The defense is 15th in DVOA and 22nd in success rate. Adding defensive end Chase Young should help, but the 49ers need to fix their issues on the back end.
If you’re a Jaguars fan, you have to feel good about where this team is after nine weeks. They’re 6-2, their defense has been a huge surprise, and they haven’t yet peaked offensively.
It feels like the general talking points for this game will be: The 49ers won’t really lose four in a row, will they? The Jaguars are good, but they’re not 7-2 good, are they?
But I generally like to roll with Doug Pederson in an underdog role. Give me Jacksonville.
The pick: Jaguars (+3)
New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings (+2.5)
I can’t get enough of the Joshua Dobbs story. What he did last week in Minnesota’s win over the Falcons was incredible. I can’t believe I’m saying this, but the Vikings have emerged as one of the NFL’s most lovable teams. That defense is all the way up to 10th in DVOA—significantly outperforming its talent under Brian Flores’s direction. They’re 5-4 and have won four straight games. Just a really impressive head-coaching job by Kevin O’Connell.
As for the Saints, they’re exactly what they intended to be: a mediocre team with a low ceiling that has a great chance of making the playoffs. Right now, the Saints are the favorites (-160) to win the NFC South.
I want to root for Dobbs, and I generally stay away from Derek Carr and Dennis Allen as favorites. Give me the home dog.
The pick: Vikings (+2.5)
Tennessee Titans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5)
Will Levis is a fun, new character for the 2023 season. I don’t know how good he’ll be, but in two games, Levis has already shown that he can make high-difficulty throws. I suspect some horrible decision-making is coming. That’s generally the case with rookie quarterbacks. But I’m definitely interested in seeing more. The goal for Tennessee the rest of the way should be to get Levis reps and gather information on him so that it can have a sense of his upside going into the offseason.
The Bucs, meanwhile, have lost four straight, but the past three have been by a combined 11 points. They’re mediocre in just about everything they do. I don’t trust either team, but give me Tennessee.
The pick: Titans (+1.5)
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-6)
The case for the Ravens as the most complete team in the NFL:
- Their plus-115 point differential is not only first, but 35 points better than the second-ranked team.
- They’re first in DVOA and the only team to be in the top five on both offense and defense.
- They’re 7-2, and their two losses came by a combined 10 points and were among the most fluky losses by any team all season.
I’m really impressed with this Ravens team. They can win with Lamar Jackson when he operates from the pocket or makes second-reaction plays. They can run the ball. Their offensive line is playing well. Their defense just held the Seahawks to a total of six first downs and completely shut down the Lions a few weeks ago. They’re well-coached. And we know they’ll be good in the kicking game. If Jackson stays healthy, this really could be the Ravens’ year.
The Browns defense continues to look like one of the NFL’s top units, but their offense was dealt a blow last week, when left tackle Jedrick Wills Jr. suffered an injury that is expected to keep him out for a while. I’m tempted to take the points here, given that it’ll likely be a low-scoring game, but the Ravens have just looked so dominant. Winning by a touchdown doesn’t feel like too much to ask.
The pick: Ravens (-6)
Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5)
My initial thought here was that this line is too big. Houston’s C.J. Stroud was incredible last week, and he’s having one of the best rookie seasons we’ve seen recently for a quarterback. And it’s not like Stroud has some amazing supporting cast. He’s an elevator—the type of quarterback who makes everyone around him better. It’s been so much fun to watch.
As for the Bengals, they’ve won three straight, over the Seahawks, 49ers, and Bills. But they’re banged up, particularly at wide receiver. Ja’Marr Chase didn’t practice Wednesday because of a back injury, and Tee Higgins was limited with a hamstring issue. It will not surprise me if Stroud pulls off the upset here, but that Texans defense just got picked apart by Baker Mayfield last week. I’m riding with Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow until he gives me a reason not to.
The pick: Bengals (-6.5)
Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)
What a time to be a Steelers fan. Offensive coordinator Matt Canada moved from the box to the sideline during their win over the Titans last week, and Pittsburgh did the impossible and scored on its first possession. The nickname “Fourth Quarter Kenny [Pickett]” might actually become a thing. And Mike Tomlin this week described the issue of George Pickens’s post on Instagram that said “free me” as “a pebble in my shoe.” This team really has it all!
The Packers got a win over the Rams last week and are still in the wide-open mix for the final playoff spot in the NFC. According to the betting markets, they have the fourth-easiest remaining schedule. I don’t believe in the Packers, and I can’t pick a Steelers game right to save my life. This definitely feels like a good spot to fade me.
The pick: Steelers (-3)
Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals (+1.5)
Let’s take a step back and assess where we are with Falcons head coach Arthur Smith. The Falcons have spent three consecutive top-eight draft picks on offensive skill-position players. They have three offensive linemen making over $10 million per year. And through nine weeks, Atlanta ranks 24th in offensive DVOA—sandwiched between the Commanders and the Patriots. Smith is sticking with Taylor Heinicke at quarterback in this game at Arizona and says he will reassess things during the bye.
If the season ended today, the Cardinals would have the first pick in the draft. But they’re not moving forward with an all-out tank. Instead, Kyler Murray is expected to return to start his first game of the season, barring any setbacks in practice this week. The Cardinals are a bad team, and they’re dealing with offensive line injuries, but there’s no way I could look at myself in the mirror if I took the Falcons as road favorites.
The pick: Cardinals (+1.5)
Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Chargers (+3)
Don’t sleep on the Lions as the potential 1-seed in the NFC. At 6-2, they’re currently second, behind only the 8-1 Eagles. According to the betting markets, the Lions have the sixth-easiest remaining schedule. This is a feisty, well-rounded, well-coached team.
Watching the Chargers on Monday night, I couldn’t help but think about how boring the Justin Herbert experience has become. I know they are missing wide receivers Mike Williams and Josh Palmer, and the Jets defense is no joke. But when Herbert came into the league, he was a revelation. I couldn’t wait to watch him play every week. Against the Jets, he averaged 4.5 yards per attempt and took five sacks. I know it was only one game, and he has a finger injury on his non-throwing hand, but the Chargers just continue to bum me out.
At first glance, I wondered whether this number was too high. But I like this Lions team, and I’m not getting sucked back in by the Chargers.
The pick: Lions (-3)
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-16.5)
Biggest takeaway from the Eagles-Cowboys film last week: In the past two seasons, I don’t think I’ve seen an offensive line handle the Eagles’ defensive line as well as Dallas did in that game. Don’t get me wrong: The Eagles pass rushers got home late and wrecked Dallas’s final possession. But for 57 minutes or so, I thought that was a pretty dominant performance by the Cowboys up front. That’s a really good sign for them the rest of the way, and Dak Prescott played at a high level throughout.
As for the Giants, Daniel Jones’s season is over because of a torn ACL. They are starting Tommy DeVito in this game. And if the season ended today, the Giants would have the fourth pick. Remember, Jones’s contract is guaranteed through only 2024. The Giants could legitimately be in the mix to draft a quarterback high next spring.
This line is enormous. It’s a division game. Normally, I’d take the points and cross my fingers. But I just can’t get there. I’m pretty sure this would have to get to 20 for me to take the Giants.
The pick: Cowboys (-16.5)
Washington Commanders at Seattle Seahawks (-6)
I’m not quite sure what to make of this Seahawks team. They had six first downs in last week’s blowout loss against the Ravens. That’s the fewest they’ve had in 237 games with Pete Carroll as their head coach. The Seahawks are 5-3 and have some tough ones the rest of the way: two games against the 49ers, one against the Cowboys, and one against the Eagles.
The Commanders, meanwhile, are not a good team, but they’re not a bad watch. They lit the Patriots up for 432 yards last week and had 472 in their game against the Eagles a week before that. Maybe they’re figuring some things out on that side of the ball? It’s also possible that I’m overreacting to a small sample. Regardless, give me the points. Seahawks win, but they sweat it out.
The pick: Commanders (+6)
New York Jets at Las Vegas Raiders (+1)
Just incredible scenes from the Raiders locker room after their win over the Giants last week:
No. 1 rule for NFL coaches going forward: Try to create an environment in which your players don’t want to celebrate to that degree when they win a game after you were fired.
Generally speaking, you want to take a team that’s playing its first game with an interim coach (I screwed this up with my pick last week!) and then fade them the second game. But maybe give the Raiders a second game here, given how scarred they might have been by the Josh McDaniels experience?
Plus, the Jets had two months to upgrade from Zach Wilson at quarterback and didn’t do it. They basically told us not to take them seriously. I think I’ll just listen.
The pick: Raiders (+1)
Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (-7.5)
I spent some time this week trying to decide whether it’s finally time to fade the Bills. But I just can’t get there. The main reason? I think their offense still has greatness within it. There’s too much data to suggest as much. Take a look at the Bills’ offensive numbers this year compared to last year:
Bills Offense
The Bills are better this year in terms of expected points added per drive and success rate. They’re averaging one fewer point per game than last season. I know some will point to the fact that they juiced their numbers against bad teams earlier this season, and that’s partially true. But that happens every year.
Buffalo is in a bit of a rut—no doubt. But it still has Josh Allen. It still has Stefon Diggs. Rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid is coming on. And the offensive line has been good enough. I still think this group will get it together and go on a run. And it’ll have to be the offense that carries the Bills, because the injuries on defense are legitimately concerning.
The Broncos, meanwhile, beat the Packers and Chiefs before their bye. Their defense is playing a lot better than it did earlier in the season.
But I can’t quit this Bills team. I feel like I say it every week, but this really feels like a get-right game.
The pick: Bills (-7.5)
