The 2023-24 NBA All In-dex
Which teams are all in to win now? Which ones are gobbling up picks and building for the future? We analyzed the draft capital and cap sheets of every team and ranked them.The 2023-24 NBA All In-dex
Which teams are all in to win now? Which ones are gobbling up picks and building for the future? We analyzed the draft capital and cap sheets of every team and ranked them.
For the third time, we’re running our All In-dex formula to measure which NBA teams are the most all in to win a title right now. And for the third time, there’s a new team atop the rankings.
For a more thorough explanation of our methodology, read our original story from last year or our midseason update from February. But for a quick summary, All In-dex scores have two components: (1) draft index, accounting for all first-round picks and swaps between now and 2030, and (2) money index, based on a team’s total projected payments, including luxury tax, for this season and the next three. Averaging the two scores allows us to rank all 30 teams from most to least all in as the 2023-24 season begins.
Positive numbers mean more all in and negative numbers mean less. Scores are normalized so the average is zero. Here are the overall results; below the chart, we’ll go team by team to analyze the present and future outlooks for all 30 franchises.
1. Phoenix Suns
Draft rank: 1st (tie)
Money rank: 1st
Previous overall rank: 3rd
When we launched the All In-dex a year ago, the Suns ranked a middling 12th and were “the most boring team to analyze on this entire list,” I wrote, because “they have all their own future picks and none from anybody else.” The key question for then-team owner Robert Sarver’s team at that time was how to continue building around Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton, Chris Paul, and Mikal Bridges, who were all signed long term.
What a difference a year makes. Now, the Suns don’t control any of their next seven first-round picks, via three outright trades and four swaps. Now, Booker is the only member of that quartet still on the roster. Now, the Suns, with new team owner Mat Ishbia, are the most all-in franchise in the NBA.
Due to the Stepien Rule, which prevents trades of consecutive first-round picks, it would be impossible for the Suns to be more all in on the draft front than they are now. And financially, no team is more committed to its current core than Phoenix, which is already well above the luxury tax threshold for next season and basically at the estimated limit for 2025-26 with just five players under contract. But that’s what happens when a new owner throws double birds at the ostensibly more restrictive collective bargaining agreement and decides to trade for Bradley Beal after pushing for a Kevin Durant trade months earlier. In 2025-26, the trio of Booker, Beal, and Durant will earn more than $160 million combined.
2. Milwaukee Bucks
Draft rank: 1st (tie)
Money rank: 3rd
Previous overall rank: 4th
Giannis Antetokounmpo wanted his team to go all in for another title, and Bucks brass obliged. After trading for Damian Lillard while still owing multiple future picks from the Jrue Holiday trade, the Bucks—like Phoenix—don’t control any of their next seven first-round picks. And after retaining Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez for more than $50 million combined annually, the Bucks remain near the top in money score, too. If Giannis signs his mega-extension next summer, the Bucks will stay near the top of the All In-dex rankings for a long time to come.
3. Golden State Warriors
Draft rank: 12th
Money rank: 2nd
Previous overall rank: 1st
The Warriors’ fall from the top spot has less to do with their own decisions—though they did clear up some future cap space by swapping Jordan Poole for Chris Paul—and more to do with aggressive moves from the Suns and Bucks. It’s worth comparing those three teams, though, because the Suns and Bucks have shipped out as many future picks as they can, while the Warriors have largely retained their own; they owe only a top-four-protected pick this year and a top-20-protected pick in 2030.
After trading Poole and James Wiseman, the Warriors are no longer quite as committed to a “two timelines” track as they once were. But they still seemingly put more stock in the draft than their other all-in counterparts.
4. Denver Nuggets
Draft rank: 6th
Money rank: 5th
Previous overall rank: 6th
The whole point of going all in is to win titles, and voilà: That’s exactly what Denver did! The Nuggets have traded numerous future picks (all with top-five protections) and committed to three max contracts to bolster and keep together their current championship core. Even during the Finals, they were busy behind the scenes, sacrificing future draft equity for more picks in the present to add more contributors while Nikola Jokic is still in his prime. It’s all a fan base can ask for from its team and the owner.
5. Minnesota Timberwolves
Draft rank: 4th
Money rank: 7th
Previous overall rank: 5th
The second-ranked Bucks, third-ranked Warriors, and fourth-ranked Nuggets are, conveniently enough, the past three NBA champions. The first-place Suns and sixth-place Celtics enter the 2023-24 season as top-tier Finals contenders. And then there are the fifth-place Timberwolves, who thrust themselves all in with last summer’s Rudy Gobert deal and are still merely fringe contenders.
The Gobert blockbuster is singularly responsible for Minnesota’s ranking here. The Timberwolves owe Utah most of their future picks because of that deal, and they’re on the books for roughly $130 million that will go to just their top three players next season, as Gobert’s high-dollar deal joins extensions for the homegrown Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns.
6. Boston Celtics
Draft rank: 10th
Money rank: 4th
Previous overall rank: 9th
Despite trading for two players who received All-NBA votes last season, the Celtics somehow lost only one first-round pick this summer. They didn’t trade any future firsts to acquire Kristaps Porzingis and in fact added one in that deal as compensation for trading Marcus Smart to Memphis. Then, they dealt that pick, along with one future first of their own, to Portland for Holiday. Thus, Boston retains ample flexibility to make more upgrades this season, which could give the Celtics a leg up in the Eastern Conference arms race, as the Bucks have much less to deal after their Lillard splash.
Boston has much less flexibility when it comes to finances, however, after Porzingis signed an extension and Jaylen Brown signed the richest contract (for now) in NBA history. They have more on the way soon: Holiday can sign an extension of his own midway through this season, and Jayson Tatum is due for a supermax next summer. Will Boston join Phoenix in blowing past the league’s various payroll guardrails, or will its starry quartet play together for only a year or two before expenses force a breakup?
7. Cleveland Cavaliers
Draft rank: 3rd
Money rank: 13th
Previous overall rank: 7th
Cleveland ranks this high because of the Donovan Mitchell trade, which sent a parcel of picks to Utah, but its current Mitchell predicament is why the team doesn’t rank even higher. Cleveland’s money score is the lowest of any team in the top 10, as Mitchell is signed only through the 2024-25 season; it would be a disaster if the Cavaliers lost him in free agency after trading so many picks and swaps to acquire him.
More broadly, note that five of the top seven teams on this list play in Phoenix, Milwaukee, Denver, Minnesota, and Cleveland. There’s no reason that teams in less traditionally glamorous markets can’t commit just as much to a title effort as teams in coastal cities can.
8. Los Angeles Lakers
Draft rank: 8th
Money rank: 8th
Previous overall rank: 13th
The Lakers successfully threaded the needle at the trade deadline last season: They remade their rotation, eventually reaching the Western Conference finals, while sacrificing only one future first rather than the two they could have dealt. They therefore retained a future avenue toward improvement—and they might have doubled down on that approach in the offseason, re-signing D’Angelo Russell and Rui Hachimura to eminently tradable contracts. Don’t be surprised if the Lakers package one or both of those players with an extra pick this season in search of another roster boost.
9. Atlanta Hawks
Draft rank: 7th
Money rank: 10th
Previous overall rank: 8th
Here’s a surprise: At the moment, the Hawks have the most money committed of any team for the 2026-27 season, as Trae Young, Dejounte Murray, and De’Andre Hunter are all signed for years to come. As other teams extend their stars, Atlanta’s roster is unlikely to remain the most expensive one long term, and in the cap environment four years from now, $29.5 million for a player of Murray’s caliber might look like a steal. But this outlook does mean the Hawks need to take care as they weigh which young players they want to keep going forward and which they won’t be able to afford to extend.
10. Los Angeles Clippers
Draft rank: 5th
Money rank: 14th
Previous overall rank: 2nd
The Clippers ranked first and second, respectively, in last season’s editions of the All In-dex. They’ve fallen to 10th because of a steep decline in their money score: With Kawhi Leonard and Paul George still unsigned beyond this season, the Clippers no longer dominate that category.
They’d climb right back up if they extended their two star wings, of course, or if they traded for and extended James Harden, but it’s possible that team owner Steve Ballmer is no longer quite so thrilled to pour record-breaking sums of money into his roster. Could the Clippers’ decision to waive Eric Gordon—whom they acquired at the 2022-23 trade deadline—rather than guarantee his 2023-24 salary be a sign that the team wants to cut costs going forward? That maneuver saved the Clippers more than $100 million in luxury tax payments; it also allowed him to sign with the rival Suns.
11. Dallas Mavericks
Draft rank: 9th
Money rank: 12th
Previous overall rank: 11th
Two funny bits of business bookend the Mavericks’ long-term draft sheet. In the immediate future, they owe a pick with top-10 protections to the Knicks, after a furious late-season tank helped them keep the pick (and earn a $750,000 fine) last season.
And far off into the future, the Mavericks owe the Spurs swap rights on their 2030 first—a shrewd bit of speculation from San Antonio that seven years down the line, the two Texas teams’ fortunes might have flipped. Pick swaps often don’t pan out, but the Spurs are betting that Luka Doncic might be on another team by 2030 while a mid-20s Victor Wembanyama leads the next San Antonio power.
12. Memphis Grizzlies
Draft rank: 19th (tie)
Money rank: 6th
Previous overall rank: 18th
Now is when decisions get tough in Memphis. Such is the life cycle of a rebuilding team: The Grizzlies were young, fun overachievers, but now their core players—Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., Desmond Bane, and Brandon Clarke—have all signed extensions, and they still haven’t reached the conference finals. Maybe they just need better health in the playoffs; maybe Smart will help stabilize the perimeter.
But the Grizzlies are no longer outliers in this exercise, as actual contenders near the bottom of the rankings. Although they still can trade for almost any player they want with all their extant draft capital, they’d now find it a challenge to fit an All-Star’s salary alongside their current commitments. One more youth breakout—Ziaire Williams as their long-sought 3-and-D wing?—would go a long way toward helping them reach their ultimate goal.
13. Miami Heat
Draft rank: 14th (tie)
Money rank: 9th
Previous overall rank: 10th
If the Heat had traded multiple first-round picks for Lillard this offseason, they would have leaped toward the top five of the All In-dex (their exact placement would have depended on the outgoing contracts in the deal). Instead, they lost out on Lillard—and basically every other meaningful upgrade they could have made—and remained near the middle of these rankings.
Coming off its second Finals loss in four years, Miami is still positioned to strike a superstar deal at some point. The Heat control all but one of their future firsts, and Pat Riley is always up to something. The question is how urgently he feels the need to make a move now that Lillard is off the table and Jimmy Butler, at age 34, is presumably near the end of his prime.
14. Sacramento Kings
Draft rank: 14th (tie)
Money rank: 17th
Previous overall rank: 19th
Fresh off their first postseason appearance in 17 years and a competitive seven-game series loss to the Warriors, will the Kings devote more resources to improve on that showing? Other than owing Atlanta a lottery-protected 2024 first from the Kevin Huerter trade, Sacramento still has all its future picks, which could help facilitate a midseason roster upgrade.
15. Philadelphia 76ers
Draft rank: 11th
Money rank: 24th
Previous overall rank: 12th
Every other semi-realistic 2023-24 championship contender ranks higher than the 76ers on this list. At first blush, that seems odd for a team run by Daryl Morey, who’s never been shy about acting aggressively when he thinks his team has a chance at a title.
Yet Morey is engaging in a medium-term money play, which reduces Philadelphia’s money score. Because Harden and Tobias Harris will reach free agency next summer, and because Morey has thus far refrained from offering Tyrese Maxey a high-dollar extension, the 76ers project to enter next offseason with up to $65 million in cap space. Only Joel Embiid and P.J. Tucker (with a player option) are due any guaranteed money after this season.
Granted, superstars almost never reach free agency anymore, so it’s unclear what Morey might accomplish with all that room. (Wouldn’t it be ironic if Harden and Harris were the two best available players next summer?) But at the very least, this plan gives the 76ers a possible avenue to improve, which their competitors lack.
16. Chicago Bulls
Draft rank: 18th
Money rank: 19th
Previous overall rank: 16th
In three editions of this exercise, the Bulls have now ranked 17th, 16th, and 16th—a fitting, static placement for a team that’s stuck in the middle. Extending DeMar DeRozan, a free agent after this season, would push the Bulls’ money score higher, but in the bigger picture, this franchise desperately needs to pick a direction.
17. Charlotte Hornets
Draft rank: 14th (tie)
Money rank: 22nd
Previous overall rank: 23rd
The Hornets owe San Antonio a lottery-protected pick either this season or next; if it doesn’t convey by then, it converts instead to second-round selections in 2026 and 2027. What do we think—have the Spurs given up on even the possibility of getting a first-rounder from Charlotte, given how far this team seems from playoff contention?
18. Washington Wizards
Draft rank: 21st
Money rank: 20th
Previous overall rank: 15th
The Thunder started on their rebuilding course by gobbling up multiple future picks from the Rockets and Clippers in the trades of Russell Westbrook and Paul George, respectively. The Jazz devoured seven future firsts and three swaps when trading Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell. Most of those picks have high upside because they’re unprotected.
The Wizards, conversely, didn’t add a single unprotected future first this summer, even though they traded both Beal and Porzingis. Thanks in large part to a no-trade clause, their only draft compensation for Beal was second-rounders and swaps, while Porzingis netted only a 2023 second-round pick. The Wizards also landed a 2030 first from the Warriors in the Poole trade, but with top-20 protections, its value is limited.
19. New York Knicks
Draft rank: 24th
Money rank: 15th
Previous overall rank: 17th
The Knicks are still on their new, conservative course after decades of a more chaotic roster-building approach. Their best player, Jalen Brunson, is signed to a team-friendly deal, and they didn’t overreact to last season’s success with rash trades or signings this summer.
Instead, they’re still building internally and biding their time until an MVP candidate demands a trade to Madison Square Garden. With four future firsts from other teams (all with varying levels of protection) plus all their own picks in the holster, the Knicks are, as my colleague Michael Pina wrote last month, “finally in position to land a star again.”
20. Houston Rockets
Draft rank: 22nd
Money rank: 21st
Previous overall rank: 27th
Even after signing Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks, Houston still has money to play with, and it is still due to receive multiple Nets picks and swaps from the Harden trade. Only one factor hurts Houston’s placement here, as a team still in the early stages of rebuilding a contender: The Rockets owe the Thunder a top-four-protected pick this season and a swap in 2025, when Oklahoma City certainly projects, for now, as a better team than Houston. The Paul-for-Westbrook trade was an utter catastrophe.
21. Indiana Pacers
Draft rank: 19th (tie)
Money rank: 26th
Previous overall rank: 24th
The Pacers are currently the only NBA team that has neither added nor traded away any future first-round picks, which makes them the new “most boring team to analyze on this entire list.” I wouldn’t expect them to follow the Suns’ path and trade for two All-NBA stars in the next 12 months, though.
22. Toronto Raptors
Draft rank: 13th
Money rank: 28th
Previous overall rank: 20th
The Raptors’ 28th-place money score illustrates the crossroads at which they find themselves. On the one hand, that means a lot of potential flexibility for Masai Ujiri; on the other, the only reason he might have that much flexibility is because Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby can both reach free agency next summer. Toronto already lost VanVleet for nothing this year and might lose its two best wings, too.
23. Portland Trail Blazers
Draft rank: 27th
Money rank: 11th
Previous overall rank: 14th
The Trail Blazers didn’t plummet quite as far in these rankings as might have been expected when they traded Lillard and Jusuf Nurkic. That’s because they brought back a few players with substantial contracts of their own: most notably, Deandre Ayton. But they’re much closer to all out on the draft side—and could gain even more picks over the coming months if they trade Jerami Grant, Robert Williams III, and/or Malcolm Brogdon to contenders.
24. Detroit Pistons
Draft rank: 17th
Money rank: 29th
Previous overall rank: 21st
Somehow, despite not having a winning season since 2015-16, the Pistons have less future draft capital than they would have if they’d never made any trades. They owe a protected pick from a draft-day deal for Isaiah Stewart back in 2020 and don’t have any extra selections from other teams to compensate. (Detroit traded for a future Bucks first when swapping Grant to Portland but sent that pick to New York in a draft-day deal for Jalen Duren.) Maybe that’ll change this season if the Pistons send Bojan Bogdanovic to a contender, but while they have a squeaky-clean cap sheet going forward, their draft cupboard is shockingly bare relative to other cellar dwellers.
25. New Orleans Pelicans
Draft rank: 26th
Money rank: 16th
Previous overall rank: 22nd
The biggest loser of the Lillard trade, other than the Heat? That would be the Pelicans, who have a tremendous amount of future draft equity in theory but would see much of its upside evaporate if Giannis stays in Milwaukee for the rest of the decade. In addition to an unprotected first from the Lakers—the final bit of the Anthony Davis trade—the Pelicans hold swap rights with the Bucks in 2024 and 2026, plus an unprotected Bucks pick in 2027 and the Bucks pick if it lands in the top four in 2025.
Still, New Orleans sits in an enviable position, with lots of optionality in both the trade market and free agency. If Zion Williamson ever stays healthy—a big if—the Pelicans are well-positioned to make win-now moves in support of the franchise’s deepest playoff run ever.
26. Orlando Magic
Draft rank: 23rd
Money rank: 30th
Previous overall rank: 25th
The only Magic player signed to a long-term, non-rookie deal is Wendell Carter Jr., whose remaining three years and $35.9 million on a declining scale represent a massive bargain for the team. Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero will need extensions sooner rather than later, but in the meantime, Orlando should have the room to add two max contracts next summer. Whether enough max-worthy players will reach free agency to allow the Magic to maximize their space is uncertain, but this team is still in the fun, early, everything-is-possible stage of its rebuild.
27. Brooklyn Nets
Draft rank: 25th
Money rank: 25th
Previous overall rank: 26th
The Nets ranked sixth in the All In-dex rankings a year ago before dropping all the way to 26th following their trades of Durant and Kyrie Irving. Now, the question is whether Brooklyn—with no incentive to tank, given the picks it still owes to Houston—will reinvest all its new draft capital for an all-in deal or if it will let Mikal Bridges and Co. marinate for a while before returning to a win-now mode.
28. San Antonio Spurs
Draft rank: 28th
Money rank: 23rd
Previous overall rank: 29th
Some teams in an all-out mode have all their extra draft picks concentrated in one or two teams. If those teams flounder, jackpot! But if not, the rebuilding team won’t be able to steal any juicy picks high in the lottery.
The Spurs have taken a different approach, choosing to spread their draft capital around rather than put all their eggs in one team’s basket. In just the next two drafts alone, the Spurs are owed picks (depending on protections) from four separate teams: Charlotte, Toronto, Chicago, and Atlanta. And further down the line, they can execute swaps with Atlanta, Boston, and Dallas. That’s more than a fifth of the rest of the league that might give the Spurs a draft boost at some point in the summers to come.
29. Oklahoma City Thunder
Draft rank: 30th
Money rank: 18th
Previous overall rank: 28th
Across the NBA, there’s a strong correlation (0.67 on a scale from -1 to 1) between a team’s All In-dex score and its over/under win total for the 2023-24 season, per FanDuel. This relationship makes sense: All-in teams should be expected to win more games this season, while all-out teams are taking steps back now to vault forward in the future.
But that general relationship isn’t true of the Thunder. Oklahoma City could compete right now, even while it has the most future draft assets of any team. If we make a quick formula to estimate each team’s expected over/under based on its All In-dex score and compare that to each team’s actual over/under, we find that the Thunder are far and away the biggest overperformer.
Biggest Gaps Between All In-dex Ranking and Projected 2023-24 Success
Eventually, the Thunder will get expensive, once its promising youngsters join Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and sign extensions. But at the moment, the Thunder can make the best trade offer for any dissatisfied star, thanks to the treasure trove Sam Presti has built up over the past half decade. Keep an eye on the Thunder at the trade deadline if they’re anywhere near the playoff race—as they probably will be—in the West.
30. Utah Jazz
Draft rank: 29th
Money rank: 27th
Previous overall rank: 30th
The Jazz ranked 29th and 30th in the first two editions of the All In-dex. And given how early they are in their rebuild, they might stay down here at the bottom for a while. The Jazz don’t even have any extra first-round picks in 2024—in fact, they owe the Thunder a pick with top-10 protections—so barring a trade, they’ll retain all their extra equity in next year’s All In-dex update as well.
