Week 5 was supposed to give us an instant classic between the San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys. Instead, we got a 42-10 blowout. Also last week, the Cincinnati Bengals showed signs of life while the New York Giants and New England Patriots continued to embarrass themselves. And the Detroit Lions kept rolling. What’s in store for Week 6? Let’s get to the picks!
Lines are from FanDuel as of Thursday morning. Stats are from TruMedia and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted.
Week 5 record: 7-6-1
Season record: 40-36-2
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5)
This one is pretty simple to me. It comes down to how I want to feel on Thursday night.
Option no. 1: Make the square pick and go with the Chiefs. Keep it simple. Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid at home against the worst defense in the NFL.
Option no. 2: Go with the contrarian pick and take the Broncos. Whenever it feels like everyone will be on one side, it’s smart to go with the other side.
But here’s the bottom line: I won’t be able to live with myself if I pick the Broncos and the Chiefs are up 35-0 in the second quarter. If the Chiefs have dumb turnovers or special teams gaffes and let the Broncos hang around and I lose, so be it. At least I’ll be able to look myself in the mirror and not feel ashamed.
The pick: Chiefs (-10.5)
Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans (+4)
Congratulations to the Ravens on what had to be the stupidest loss by any team last week, in their matchup with the Steelers. HOW DID THEY LOSE THAT GAME??
Some things that happened:
- The Ravens had seven drops—the most by any team in a game this season. The drops were absurd. I’m talking big plays downfield. Dropped touchdowns. And not by just one guy. It was everyone!
- Center Tyler Linderbaum mistakenly snapped the ball before halftime when the Ravens were trying to let the clock wind down and kick a field goal. That cost them three points.
- Lamar Jackson threw an interception from the Steelers’ 5-yard line late in the fourth quarter.
- They had a punt blocked.
The Ravens are a good team. The Ravens are also not to be trusted. And you should know by now that I always ride with Mike Vrabel as an underdog.
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The pick: Titans (+4)
San Francisco 49ers at Cleveland Browns (+6.5)
After missing Week 4 with a shoulder injury, Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson did not practice on Wednesday, and his status for this game is uncertain. According to The Athletic, coach Kevin Stefanski said after that Week 4 game that Watson had been medically cleared to play, but Watson didn’t feel comfortable enough to go. And now he’s seemingly not healthy even after the team’s Week 5 bye. The Browns continue to be a weird, weird team.
It’s been only five games, but the 49ers look like a juggernaut. Kyle Shanahan has coached great offenses before. He’s never coached an offense like this. Based on expected points added per drive, there have been two offenses in the past 10 seasons that have outperformed the 2023 49ers:
- The 2023 Miami Dolphins
- The 2018 Kansas City Chiefs
Again, small sample, but that should put what the 49ers are doing so far into perspective. And it’s not just the offense. Their defense dominated Sunday night against the Cowboys.
I think there’s a scenario here where the impressive Browns defense uglies this game up and keeps it close. But the Browns offense has been shaky for much of the season, and even if Watson plays, he’ll likely be less than 100 percent. I’m rolling with the Niners until they give me a reason not to.
The pick: 49ers (-6.5)
Washington Commanders at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)
It feels like every Commanders conversation starts with how second-year quarterback Sam Howell is performing, but how many units leaguewide have underachieved more than Washington’s defense? Washington got lit up by Justin Fields and the Bears last Thursday night, and through five games, its defense ranks 28th in EPA per drive.
Quick: Guess who the Falcons’ leading receiver is. Give up? Jonnu Smith! The team used top-10 picks on wide receiver Drake London and tight end Kyle Pitts, and its leading receiver is a tight end it acquired from New England for a seventh-round pick! That’s just some beautiful trolling by Arthur Smith.
Atlanta got a career game from quarterback Desmond Ridder last week and snuck by the Texans to improve to 3-2. But I don’t think there’s much separating these two teams. I’ll take the points.
The pick: Commanders (+2.5)
Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins (-13.5)
How good is this Dolphins offense? If we look at every offense in TruMedia’s database, which goes back to 2000, three have performed better than the 2023 Dolphins in terms of EPA per drive:
- The 2007 New England Patriots
- The 2004 Indianapolis Colts
- The 2011 New Orleans Saints
That’s pretty good company! What I love about this Dolphins offense is that mistakes don’t sink it. There have been 18 instances this season when a team has been minus-three or worse in turnovers. One of those teams still won: It was last week’s Dolphins, who didn’t just squeak by the Giants. They won by 15!
The Panthers were competitive for about a quarter and a half against Detroit last week, but turnovers doomed them. At 0-5, they’re the only winless team in the NFL. This season was supposed to be about hope and a fresh, new chapter. But the Panthers are just a depressing team to watch. That team has no juice.
Weird things happen in the NFL every week. But even if the Dolphins went into the fourth quarter trailing by seven, they’d still have a shot at covering this number.
The pick: Dolphins (-13.5)
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (+2.5)
The Vikings are 1-4 and have lost Justin Jefferson to a hamstring injury. He’s on injured reserve and will miss at least the next four games. There’s been a lot of talk this week about whether they’ll end up trading Kirk Cousins. But look around the league, and it’s hard to find many teams who could be interested. The New York Jets? They should have made the move yesterday in my opinion. Good defense. Good running game. Good WR1. But if they lose this week to the Eagles, would they be in too deep of a hole at 2-4 to make a big move worth it? The only other team I could come up with was the Falcons.
After a disastrous start to the season, the Bears are showing signs of life. They have played 20 games with Justin Fields as their starting quarterback. Among that sample, last week’s performance against the Commanders ranked second in terms of EPA per drive. Their Week 4 performance against the Broncos ranked third. In other words, things could be trending in a positive direction.
I don’t have a great feel for this one. There’s a chance that Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores will come up with a game plan that wrecks the Bears offense. But Minnesota is short on talent, and that offense is unlikely to be better than average without Jefferson.
The pick: Bears (+2.5)
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5)
Anthony Richardson has been so fun to watch this season. But he’s started four games and finished only one. His latest injury is the most serious he’s experienced—a shoulder sprain that is expected to keep Richardson out for four to eight weeks. Here’s hoping that these are fluky, bad-luck injuries and Richardson will get healthy soon.
The Jaguars lit the Bills up for 29 first downs and 474 yards in their Week 5 victory in London. It was easily Jacksonville’s best win of the season. Had they not turned the ball over twice in Buffalo territory, we’d be talking about an even more decisive victory.
Having said that, I still don’t fully trust this Jaguars group. With the Colts, Saints, and Steelers coming up, I’d like to see them go on a run. Indy will turn to Gardner Minshew in this one, and we’ve seen enough of him over the years to know that Minshew can operate a competent offense. I’ll go ahead and take the points.
The pick: Colts (+4.5)
New Orleans Saints at Houston Texans (+1.5)
I was so impressed with the drive that C.J. Stroud and the Texans offense put together at the end of last week’s game against the Falcons. Houston was down by six and took over at its own 25 with 6:56 left. The Texans went 75 yards on 11 plays and took 5:08 off the clock to take a 19-18 lead. That’s exactly how you draw it up. The only problem? The defense got cooked by Atlanta quarterback Desmond Ridder on the ensuing possession, and Houston went home with the L.
As for the Saints, their defense continues to carry them. New Orleans had one slipup against Tampa Bay but has otherwise been shutting teams down. They are second in defensive success rate, behind only the Browns.
Dennis Allen’s defense against a rookie quarterback should give the advantage to New Orleans here, but this Texans offense has been so well-coached. I’ll roll the dice on Houston as a home underdog.
The pick: Texans (+1.5)
Seattle Seahawks at Cincinnati Bengals (-3)
A week ago, I didn’t know if Joe Burrow would look like Joe Burrow at any point this season. But in the Bengals’ Week 5 win over the Cardinals, he somehow looked like himself—navigating the pocket, scrambling, making second-reaction plays. Not only did the Bengals win, but the Ravens lost; Cincinnati is 2-3 and somehow just one game out of first place in the AFC North!
When we last saw the Seahawks in Week 4, rookie corner Devon Witherspoon was making plays all over the field in a Monday night win over the Giants. After a Week 1 loss to the Rams, the Seahawks have won three straight by a total of 37 points.
I like both of these teams and should probably take the points. But I’m still not sold on Seattle’s defense. I think Burrow and the Bengals will do enough to cover.
The pick: Bengals (-3)
New England Patriots at Las Vegas Raiders (-3)
During this week’s episode of Extra Point Taken, I made the case that the Bill Belichick era in New England is effectively over. I believe there will never again be a relevant, successful Patriots team with Belichick running the show.
Look at all the evidence. The organization (probably rightfully so) pinned last season on Belichick’s decision to let Matt Patricia run the offense. Belichick then made the uninspired decision to replace Patricia with Bill O’Brien. The offense has been worse! Seriously! Look at these numbers.
New England’s Offensive Performance in 2022 Vs. 2023
The coaching is bad, but the talent is a huge issue as well. Guess who’s in charge of personnel? Belichick! This was New England’s “We’ll give you one more year out of respect for everything you’ve done for the franchise” season. And the Patriots are one of the worst teams in the NFL. They’ve been outscored by 76 points—second-worst to only the Giants. Maybe I’ll be proved wrong and the team will rebound in 2024, but this sure feels like the natural separation moment.
As for the Raiders, Josh McDaniels is on a heater of incompetent game-management decisions. I’m in complete awe. Coaches were mocked for these sorts of conservative decisions a decade ago. Most have evolved. He has not. Yet the Raiders still found a way to beat the Packers on Monday night.
One request: Instead of picking this game, can I make a prediction for 2024? Belichick is coaching the Commanders with McDaniels as his offensive coordinator.
The pick: Patriots (+3)
Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3)
I am so in on this Lions team. Last week they played without wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and running back Jahmyr Gibbs, and still blew out the Panthers, 42-24. The Lions have won three in a row, and their point differential during that span has been plus-46. They are 12-3 in their last 15 games going back to last season. This is just a really good team!
The Bucs are 3-1 and coming off their bye. There’s no doubt that Tampa Bay has overachieved so far, but do you trust the Buccaneers? I don’t. Give me Detroit.
The pick: Lions (-3)
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-7)
The film from Week 5 showed a Rams offense that really left a lot of plays on the field in their 23-14 loss to the Eagles. Their defense was getting gashed, but Matthew Stafford and his receivers were just a bit off on a handful of big plays that could’ve made that more of a coin-flip game. Receiver Cooper Kupp looked like his usual self in his return from injured reserve, catching eight balls for 118 yards.
The Cardinals have come back down to earth in recent weeks. They’ve lost their past two games to the 49ers and Bengals by a combined 33 points. The Cardinals defense ranks 30th in DVOA, ahead of only the Broncos and Bears.
This line feels a little high, given that I like a lot of what the Cardinals have done offensively. But I think Stafford and Co. will shred this Arizona secondary.
The pick: Rams (-7)
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets (+7)
For perhaps the first time this season, Jalen Hurts looked like his usual self in the Eagles’ win over the Rams last week. I’m specifically referring to how Hurts ran the ball. The Eagles used Hurts more in the designed run game, and he made plays as a scrambler outside the structure of the offense.
The Jets beat the Broncos last week, but it came at a price as guard Alijah Vera-Tucker suffered a season-ending Achilles injury. I can sell myself on this Jets defense slowing down the Eagles offense. But I just can’t get there on the other side of the ball. The Eagles pass rush against the right side of the Jets offensive line is a huge mismatch. I think Jets QB Zach Wilson turns it over a couple of times, and the calls to trade for Kirk Cousins heat up by Monday morning.
The pick: Eagles (-7)
New York Giants at Buffalo Bills (-14)
How bad is this Giants team? They have a minus-91 point differential through five weeks. That’s not only the worst mark in the NFL, but it’s also the second-worst mark for the franchise since 2000. Only the 2013 team (at minus-100) was worse.
As for the Bills, their loss to the Jaguars in London, on the surface, isn’t overly concerning. Throughout the course of a 17-game season, you tend to see games like that. Buffalo was sluggish, sloppy … whatever. But what is concerning is that the injuries are mounting on defense. Buffalo lost linebacker Matt Milano and defensive tackle DaQuan Jones for the season. The previous week, the Bills lost their best corner, Tre’Davious White.
Going into this season, the Bills were an attractive Super Bowl pick because they seemed well-rounded—a team that could finish in the top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency. But that defense will likely have a tough go the rest of the way. There are only so many good players you can lose and still be effective.
As for this game, I think Bills quarterback Josh Allen goes into superhero mode, accounts for 400 yards of offense, and leads the Bills to a bounce-back win.
The pick: Bills (-14)
Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Chargers (+2.5)
Mike McCarthy decided in the offseason that he could run the Cowboys offense better than Kellen Moore, who is now the Chargers offensive coordinator. Let’s look at the results through five games. Note: Last season’s numbers listed below include only the games in which Dak Prescott was the Cowboys starting quarterback.
Dallas’s Offensive Performance in 2022 Vs. 2023
It’s a small sample, and last week’s horrendous performance against the 49ers brings the overall averages down. But still, it’s not what you want to see if you’re a Cowboys fan.
The Chargers saved their season with consecutive wins before their Week 5 bye. Their offense ranks fourth in EPA per drive and sixth in success rate. The defense, meanwhile, has not been good.
You don’t really think I’ll have a strong take about who’ll win here, do you? We’ve got Mike McCarthy. Brandon Staley. Dak Prescott and Justin Herbert. It’s the Cowboys and Chargers on Monday Night Football! The only thing I’m certain of is that there will be a controversial coaching decision, turnover, or referee call in the final two minutes that will lead to scalding takes in every corner of the internet. Man, I can’t wait for this game.
The pick: Chargers (+2.5)
