Week 5 in the NFL brings us one of the games of the year, as the San Francisco 49ers host the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday night. Meanwhile, can the frisky Los Angeles Rams hand the Philadelphia Eagles their first loss? Can teams like the Pittsburgh Steelers, New England Patriots, and Cincinnati Bengals bounce back from embarrassing losses in Week 4?
On to the picks!
Lines are from FanDuel as of Thursday morning. Stats are from TruMedia and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted.
Week 4 record: 9-7
Season record: 33-30-1
Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders (-6)
I have liked what I’ve seen from Commanders offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy so far this season. Washington’s offensive line was at a big disadvantage against the Eagles pass rush last week, but Bieniemy helped his players out by calling quick passes and screens and moving the pocket. Washington had 26 first downs and 365 yards of offense in the overtime loss.
The Bears offense, meanwhile, showed signs of life in last week’s loss to the Broncos. But how much of that was the result of going up against the terrible Denver defense? Chicago struggled to move the ball in its first three games. And that defense stinks. They have two sacks on the season! That’s tied for the fifth fewest by a team through the first four weeks of the season since 2000. I think Sam Howell and the Commanders will move the ball against that Bears defense and deliver a convincing win.
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The pick: Commanders (-6)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (-5.5)
I have concerns about this Jaguars team. They have an uncanny ability to make third-and-1 feel like third-and-27. Jacksonville feels like a group that’s overthinking it right now. They need a little more “Why don’t we let our supremely gifted quarterback do his thing?” in their offense. I thought the Jaguars had a chance to be a top-five offense this season. Through four weeks, they rank 25th in expected points added per drive.
Meanwhile, last week against the Dolphins, we saw a near-perfect version of quarterback Josh Allen. He made the layups against the Dolphins but still used his physical gifts to make the 1 percent second-reaction plays. The Bills scored touchdowns on four of their first five possessions en route to a 48-20 victory.
I generally like Jaguars coach Doug Pederson in an underdog role, but his team seems a bit stuck right now offensively, and the Bills are rolling.
The pick: Bills (-5.5)
Houston Texans at Atlanta Falcons (-2)
During this week’s episode of Extra Point Taken, I identified two offensive coordinators who are doing more with less right now. One of them was Houston’s first-year play caller, Bobby Slowik (you’ll have to keep reading for the other one!).
The Texans have had all kinds of injuries on the offensive line, they’re playing with a rookie quarterback in C.J. Stroud, and they have a below-average group of pass catchers. Yet they still rank 13th in EPA per drive. Stroud looks comfortable, and receiver Nico Collins ranks fifth in the NFL in receiving yards, with 428, and first in yards after the catch, with 195. That entire offense looks consistently competent and well-coached.
The Falcons, meanwhile, could be reaching a tipping point with Desmond Ridder as their quarterback. He is currently 32nd out of 34 quarterbacks in EPA per pass play. Every Ridder completion feels like a miracle, and it seems to be wearing on his teammates.
Maybe I’m succumbing to recency bias, but I think the Texans are simply a better team than Atlanta right now. I’ll take the points.
The pick: Texans (+2)
Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions (-10)
Coming into the season, I believed in the Lions offense but was skeptical of their defense. It’s still early, but through four weeks, Detroit’s defense is fifth in DVOA. They look like one of the most complete teams in the NFC right now.
As for the Panthers, they are one of the league’s two winless teams. That’s good news for the also-winless Bears, who possess their own first-round pick and Carolina’s. Not good news if you’re the Panthers!
Carolina’s defense played well last week, even though the Panthers took the L at home against the Falcons. Carolina is now 0-3-1 against the spread. I don’t feel good about taking the Lions with the line this big, but I think there’s a wide talent gap between these two teams.
The pick: Lions (-10)
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (+1.5)
Indianapolis’s rookie quarterback, Anthony Richardson, completed only 11 passes last week against the Rams. Yet I watched the second half of that game and thought: OK, I’m in! If you’re a Colts fan, this season isn’t about their final record or Richardson’s consistency. You want to see the high-upside plays, given how inexperienced Richardson is, and he has been showing those every time he’s been on the field. Richardson is already one of the NFL’s most fun players to watch.
The Titans are performing as expected: frisky, competitive, but imperfect. They got stomped by the Browns, 27-3, on the road in Week 3 and then rebounded with a 27-3 win at home over the Bengals in Week 4.
I see two evenly matched teams in this matchup. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Titans head coach Mike Vrabel come up with a game plan to frustrate Richardson, but I’m riding with the rookie. He’s consistently given the Colts chances to win.
The pick: Colts (+1.5)
New York Giants at Miami Dolphins (-10.5)
Brian Daboll won Coach of the Year last season, but has there been a less prepared team than the Giants this season? Through four weeks, they’ve been outscored by 68 points in the first halves. Since at least 2000, no team has been outscored by more in the first halves of their first four games. Overall, the Giants have been outscored by a league-worst 76 points. That’s 14 points worse than any other team!
The Dolphins are coming off their first loss of the season. They hung with the Bills for most of the first half, but after a couple of turnovers, the game got away from them. That result didn’t really change my opinion of Miami. I think it’s a Super Bowl contender, and I think its offense will look unstoppable most weeks. I have questions about the Dolphins defense, but the Giants aren’t talented enough to expose them.
The pick: Dolphins (-10.5)
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (+4)
The Ravens’ win over the Browns last week had very little to do with the offensive coordinator change from Greg Roman to Todd Monken. It had everything to do with Lamar Jackson, who was doing Lamar Jackson things. He created with his arm and legs to make enough plays out of structure against a tough Browns defense.
The Ravens have faced backup quarterbacks in back-to-back weeks. As of this writing, it’s unclear if it’ll be three in a row. Kenny Pickett is dealing with a left knee injury, but he said he expects to play in this game. The Steelers offense has been maybe the toughest watch in the NFL through four weeks. They rank dead last in offensive success rate.
On paper, this should be Ravens all the way. But I trust Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin too much in a spot like this—home underdog coming off of an embarrassing loss. I don’t know how the Steelers will do it, but give me the points.
The pick: Steelers (+4)
New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots (+1)
Is there a way to fade both of these teams? It wasn’t surprising that the Saints offense struggled in last week’s loss to the Bucs, considering that quarterback Derek Carr was fighting through a shoulder injury. Carr averaged 3.4 yards per attempt, and the Saints failed to score a touchdown. It was surprising that the Saints defense gave up 353 yards and 21 first downs to Baker Mayfield and Co.
The Patriots, meanwhile, got embarrassed by the Cowboys. It wasn’t just the 38-3 loss, but the injury ramifications. New England lost two of its best players in that game. According to NFL Network, rookie corner Christian Gonzalez will likely miss the rest of the season. And edge defender Matthew Judon will be out for an extended period of time too.
On the one hand, the Patriots are 2-10 against the spread as underdogs over the past two seasons. On the other, there’s no way I trust Dennis Allen and Carr in this spot. I have to pick this game. YOU DON’T HAVE TO, AND YOU SHOULDN’T.
The pick: Patriots (+1)
Cincinnati Bengals at Arizona Cardinals (+3)
Going back to the earlier point about coordinators who are doing more with less, the second guy I mentioned on the podcast was Arizona’s Drew Petzing. The Cardinals offense is seventh in EPA per drive through four weeks. Look at their box score from last week, and you’ll find player names you’ve probably never heard, like Michael Wilson and Emari Demercado. Any team could’ve had quarterback Joshua Dobbs, but the Cardinals added him right before the season in a trade with Cleveland. He’s been more than competent in this scheme. I’m really impressed with what I’ve seen from Petzing so far.
As for the Bengals, their offense looks terrible. Their defense looks mediocre. And this very well could be the season from hell for them. Quarterback Joe Burrow has obvious limitations because of his nagging calf injury, and the other areas of the team aren’t good enough to lift him up.
Having said that, I just can’t quit on this team. The Cardinals have been competitive, but their defense is terrible. If the Bengals were ever going to have a “get right” week to keep their season alive, this would be it.
The pick: Bengals (-3)
Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams (+4.5)
So far, this has been the perfect season for Eagles fans. Their team is 4-0, yet they have had something to complain about every week. There’s a lot of discussion locally about what’s wrong with the Eagles offense. Let’s take a look at how it compares statistically to last year’s Super Bowl offense:
Philadelphia Eagles’ 2022 Vs. 2023 Offense
Probably not as big a difference as you might have expected! Don’t get me wrong. It doesn’t look the same, and it’s had some inconsistencies, but the Eagles can still run the ball, they’re still producing explosive plays, and they’re still very talented.
The question for the Rams, meanwhile, is what version of quarterback Matthew Stafford we’ll see in this game. Stafford has been fantastic this season, lighting defenses up with tight-window completions on a weekly basis. But he suffered a hip injury during last week’s win against the Colts that could affect him here.
I like the Eagles to win. They’re an absurd 18-1 with Jalen Hurts as their starter over the past two regular seasons. But Stafford (and the possible return of receiver Cooper Kupp) against a banged-up Eagles secondary keeps it close.
The pick: Rams (+4.5)
Kansas City Chiefs at Minnesota Vikings (+4)
I want to personally thank Patrick Mahomes for sliding at the end of the Chiefs’ victory over the Jets on Monday night, allowing me to finish over .500 in my weekly picks. It did not go unnoticed! Just a heady, heady play. I support Mahomes’s decision there 1,000 percent.
On a more serious note: I know the Chiefs offense will probably be fine, but it’s been a little shaky through the first four games. Kansas City has had 98 games with Mahomes as its starter. Among that sample, their four games this season have ranked 44th, 81st, 87th, and 93rd in EPA per drive. The sky is not falling, but this group’s been a bit off from what we typically expect.
As for the Vikings, they suffered three one-score losses before finally picking up their first win last week in Carolina. There’s a scenario here where Mahomes goes off against a Vikings defense that is short on talent, but I’ll roll the dice and say Minnesota will keep it competitive.
The pick: Vikings (+4)
New York Jets at Denver Broncos (-1.5)
Two stats to share on the Broncos:
- Their offense is eighth in EPA per drive so far this season. Does the team stink? Yes. But Sean Payton is still kind of making it happen on offense.
- Their defense … well, I’ll let NFL analyst Aaron Schatz handle this one:
In other words, this is the perfect opponent for Jets quarterback Zach Wilson to face if he is looking to build on Monday night’s encouraging performance against the Chiefs. Remember, the Jets don’t need Wilson to be good. They need him to be somewhat competent. It’s a low bar! It probably won’t happen, but the league is more fun if the Jets are relevant. I’m picking with my heart here.
The pick: Jets (+1.5)
Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)
Brock Purdy’s passing stat line last week against Arizona: 20-for-21 for 283 yards. The man threw one incompletion for an offense that scored 35 points, and it feels like barely anyone noticed. Based on EPA per drive, it was the best offensive performance by any team in a game since the start of the 2022 season. The 49ers had six true possessions against the Cardinals and scored touchdowns on five of them. In nine regular-season games with Purdy dating back to last year, the 49ers have scored 30 or more points eight times. They are just rolling right now.
The Cowboys, meanwhile, had a slipup in Week 3 against the Cardinals, but in their three other games, they’ve outscored their opponents 108-13! Both San Francisco and Dallas look like legit Super Bowl contenders through the first month of the season.
This feels like close to a coin-flip game, but the Niners are at home, and I think I trust them just a little bit more than Dallas right now.
The pick: 49ers (-3.5)
Green Bay Packers at Las Vegas Raiders (+1)
Josh McDaniels update: He now has a career winning percentage of .367 as a head coach and is 7-14 (.333) in two seasons with the Raiders. Vegas nearly pulled off an upset last week against the Chargers, but rookie quarterback Aidan O’Connell’s late red zone interception led to yet another loss. Nothing’s confirmed as of this writing, but it sounds like the Raiders could get Jimmy Garoppolo back for this game after he missed last week with a concussion.
As for the Packers, they are 2-2 after suffering a Thursday night loss to the Lions in Week 4. I don’t think they’re a great team, but I trust Matt LaFleur to scheme some things up against a shaky Raiders defense. Give me Green Bay.
The pick: Packers (-1)
