The Hot Read, Week 4: When Josh Allen Is Clicking, the Bills Are Unstoppable
Buffalo’s superstar quarterback was firing on all cylinders in the team’s win over the Dolphins, which reaffirmed the Bills’ position in the top tier of the AFC. Plus, the Eagles have issues, Lamar Jackson is quietly in peak form, Zach Wilson finally flashed potential, awards, and more.
This is the Hot Read. In this column, you’ll find everything and anything I found interesting from the NFL Week 4 Sunday action. There’s the stuff that everyone’s talking about, and the stuff that nobody’s talking about; the stuff that makes football incredible, and the stuff that makes football fun. I hope you enjoy it and learn something cool—and if you do, I hope you’re back next week, when we do it all again.
The Big Thing: The Best Josh Allen We’ve Ever Seen
A lot happened in the NFL on Sunday. If there’s one thing you need to know, it’s this.
Some days, it feels like Allen is as good as Patrick Mahomes. (Some days, it feels like he might be better than Mahomes, but I certainly won’t write that in a place where people will read it and screenshot it.) Sunday was one of those days.
In the Buffalo Bills’ 48-20 win over the Miami Dolphins, Allen had four passing touchdowns and four incompletions. Toss in the rushing touchdown, and an Allen dropback was more likely to end in six points than an incompletion on Sunday. That’s a dominant day, and you don’t need any advanced stats to know that. But I’ll give ’em to you anyway.
Allen had a successful play—defined as a play in which he gained positive expected points added—on 69 percent of his dropbacks. That’s the second-best mark in his career, which now stands at 89 total games, including the postseason. It was also the second-best overall game and best regular-season game for Allen by EPA per dropback, at 0.67.
This was the best version of Allen—bottled lightning. Everyone knows what he is capable of doing: uncorking bombs that travel over half the length of the field, throwing with such velocity he hurts his receivers’ hands, breaking tackles like Derrick Henry. But Allen’s magic often comes with a cost; this was the case for the interceptions he threw in the Week 1 loss to the Jets. Downfield launches, thrown carelessly into coverage—unnecessary heat checks for a quarterback who should know he’s always hot and doesn’t need to prove it.
Contrast that Jets game with the game Allen just played. Not only was it mistake-free, but it wasn’t even mistake-adjacent. It was as perfect of a game as Allen has ever played. Icarus never got too close to the sun. He just flew.
Allen threw the ball 25 times on Sunday. Twenty-three of those throws were within 20 yards of the line of scrimmage. On those 23 throws, Allen threw an accurate pass on all 23, he completed 20, and he had a positive EPA on 19, good for a success rate of 83 percent, more than 10 percentage points better than his next-closest game. Allen denied the temptation of his own talent and played within the offense. Look at these snaps.
Not the most exciting Allen highlight package you’ve ever seen, is it? Of course not. This Allen game is not nearly as fun as the game he played against Mahomes in the playoffs. You remember it: a 42-36 thriller, when the Chiefs needed just 13 seconds to tie the game and send it to overtime. Everyone remembers that game, when Allen and Mahomes clashed like titans for four quarters.
Fewer people will remember this game as an elite Allen game because it lacked those downfield rainbows, those heroic plays with everything on the line. But it was. It was the exact game the Bills need from Allen every single week. And if they get it every single week, this offense will feel unstoppable. They can get under center and run the football—something they’re doing better now than they ever have with Allen. They can work the underneath areas with Allen distributing as a point guard, quick in the pocket, deadly accurate. Allen can still hammer throws that few if any other quarterbacks can—tight windows, to the sideline, downfield. Allen can still tuck and run, as effective as any other quarterback when he turns to his wheels.
And then, when the defense finally covers all the routes and gets pressure on the quarterback, the cork pops out of the bottle, and the lightning runs free. You’ve finally stopped the Bills offense, only to unleash the most dangerous player on its roster: Allen, doing whatever he wants to do.
Since their nationally televised face-plant against the Jets in Week 1, the Bills have scored 38, 37, and 48 points. A three-game streak of at least 37 points happened only once last season (the 49ers). It also happened once in 2021: That was the Bills. It happened twice in 2020: by the Packers and the Bills.
This is what the Bills look like at their peak. (Don’t even get me started on the defense, which gave us a real taste of the dominant pass rush that Sean McDermott’s group has really only teased for the past few seasons. The Tre’Davious White Achilles injury, however, is as heartbreaking as it is impactful for this unit.) They are the gatekeepers of the top tier of the NFL, steamrolling lesser opponents and spiking would-be risers, like the Dolphins, back to the second tier where they belong. These are the Bills we were promised.
Of course, the Bills don’t care about September streaks. They’ve had incredible regular seasons before. January football will be the final referendum on the Bills, and we’re still a ways out from that. But we do know this: Buffalo isn’t ready to hand over the AFC East just yet. The Bills are still clamoring to get their hands on the AFC championship trophy that has eluded them for so long. If they keep playing like this? It won’t elude them for much longer.
The Little Things
It’s the little things in football that matter the most—zany plays, small victories, and some laughs. Here’s where you can find them.
1. THE QUALITY of quarterback play in the league right now
The following quarterbacks are playing the best ball I can remember them playing:
- Josh Allen
- Lamar Jackson (he won the MVP once, you know)
- Justin Herbert
- Tua Tagovailoa
- Brock Purdy (he’s still a Kyle Shanahan puppet, but I feel like he’s cutting down on the mistakes)
- Matthew Stafford (it’s equal in quality to the Super Bowl run, but with a way worse supporting cast)
- Jared Goff (Goff is good now, it’s so cool)
- Trevor Lawrence
Throw on top of that list the starts for rookie quarterbacks C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson, and things are going great for the league’s passers. I’ve done a video on Stroud and a piece on Richardson, and both quarterbacks have done nothing but improve, game after game. The state of quarterbacking is incredible, and it feels like the ceiling gets higher every week—and we just get to sit back and enjoy it. Life is awesome, man.
2. THE CONTINUED EFFECT of Lamar Jackson on the Ravens running game
When the Ravens switched offensive coordinators from Greg Roman to Todd Monken, they were inherently moving away from a super-creative, option-based running game. At first blush, that could have been worrisome—what if it affected Jackson’s dual-threat dominance?
Actually, it enhances Jackson as a runner. Jackson is so effective on his own as an athlete that it’s actually a waste to throw all those tight ends on the field, add defenders to the box, and introduce tons of moving parts to a finely tuned running game. It is better to just let Jackson’s gravity work for itself. The Browns run defense walked into the Ravens game on Sunday with a 78 percent success rate; against Baltimore, the success rate was just 68 percent.
Why? Because of how easy Jackson makes the job. Jim Schwartz’s defense always lines up with four down linemen and wide defensive ends—but because Jackson is a threat to keep the ball on any running down, the Ravens could leave one of those ends unblocked and get big double-teams on the interior. That end has to respect the Jackson threat (as well as the motion), and huge lanes open up for running backs Gus Edwards and Justice Hill.
The absence of Deshaun Watson put a lot of pressure on this Browns defense, which played better than the 28-point outing by Baltimore would imply. But the Ravens offense was missing receivers Rashod Bateman and Odell Beckham Jr., tackle Ronnie Stanley, and running back J.K. Dobbins; during the game, they lost tackle Morgan Moses. This was a great performance against a top defense by a banged-up offense. The Ravens are for real.
3. THE EFFORT Kirk Cousins made to tackle the defender on his own pick-six and THE HIT he received for his troubles
First, I want you to watch Cousins for the entire clip. Look at him get on his horse and fly downfield. That’s leadership and effort, even after a debilitating mistake.
Now, I want you to watch D’Shawn Jamison, the Panthers DB wearing no. 29. He’s a rookie in his third career game, doing everything he can to earn more playing time. Watch him get on his horse, track Cousins from pretty much the 10-yard line on, and absolutely lay the wood. Make sure you turn audio on so you can hear the crowd’s secondary roar on the hit.
That’s football, folks.
4. BRYCE YOUNG
Is anyone else getting worried that the Panthers traded what could end up being the first pick in the 2024 NFL draft (which should have USC quarterback Caleb Williams in it) to take Young, who is unquestionably QB3 in his own draft class right now? He’s 0-3 as a starter. He looks overwhelmed out there. He can’t run away from pressure the way he did in college. He can’t push the ball downfield like he did in college. A huge part of the reason? He’s just not very big.
5. THE ZACH WILSON we saw on Sunday night
Wilson played pretty well against the Chiefs on Sunday night, with two touchdown passes and no interceptions. (He did lose a costly fumble when he mishandled a snap in the fourth quarter.) I don’t think that’s super meaningful or predictive—it would take many, many games like the one Wilson played on Sunday for me to believe he’d really turned a corner. But it must really suck to be Wilson, playing under such an intense spotlight, and often struggling in the exact same ways he struggled last season. The fact that he had a solid game—and that the team is really trying to rally around him—makes me happy.
I still believe starting Wilson is not a good decision for the Jets in regard to short-term competitiveness. But that doesn’t change how heartwarming this is.
The Zag: The Philadelphia Eagles Are 4-0. They’ve Also Got Big Problems.
I tend to be a little contrarian. It’s not so much a personal choice as it is an occupational hazard. Here’s where I’ll plant my flag.
Two undefeated teams remain: the Eagles and the 49ers, last year’s NFC champion and runner-up, respectively. The Niners look like the same team that made it to the penultimate game in 2022. The Eagles … do not.
With coordinator changes on both sides of the ball, it’s not surprising that Philly looks different. The biggest changes are most obvious on defense, where new defensive coordinator Sean Desai has taken over for current Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon. Desai’s defense has a lot more creativity than Gannon’s did, with more fronts, twists, stunts, blitzes, coverage rotations, and tricks—and far less talent to make those tricks work.
Gone are veteran linebackers T.J. Edwards and Kyzir White; in their place are street free agents Zach Cunningham and Nicholas Morrow, the latter of whom is holding the spot of second-year pro Nakobe Dean, who is out with an injury. At safety, Marcus Epps departed and was replaced by Justin Evans and Terrell Edmunds, both of whom are liabilities. Key nickel corner Avonte Maddox, out with a pec injury, has been replaced by starting outside corner James Bradberry, who has been forced to play out of position. Second-year pro Josh Jobe has taken Bradberry’s place on the outside.
This back seven is dangerously thin and easy to pick on. Commanders quarterback Sam Howell, far from an experienced signal-caller, had no issues dicing up the Eagles zone coverage or picking on Jobe in man coverage. Even as the pass rush continued to dominate, as it often does, Howell distributed the ball quickly to open receivers, stringing together drives.
If Howell can do it, so can Matthew Stafford, whom the Eagles face next week. And that’s just the tip of the iceberg. In the first four weeks of the season, the Eagles have faced Mac Jones, Kirk Cousins, Baker Mayfield, and Howell. Here are the next 10 quarterbacks they’ll face:
- Matthew Stafford
- Zach Wilson (ignore this one)
- Tua Tagovailoa
- Sam Howell
- Dak Prescott
- Patrick Mahomes
- Josh Allen
- Brock Purdy
- Dak Prescott
- Geno Smith
By EPA per dropback, the Eagles have the first, second, third, fifth, sixth, ninth, and 11th (twice) quarterbacks coming in the next two and a half months. Their coverage unit is extremely susceptible, and short of huge improvements from young players, it won’t magically get better by tomorrow.
That’s the defensive side of the ball. Let’s talk about the offensive side of the ball, where Jalen Hurts is off to a terrible start. His success rate of 39 percent is eighth worst among all starting quarterbacks, below such players as Howell, Justin Fields, and Desmond Ridder. On plays outside of the pocket, where Hurts should be good, no quarterback has a worse success rate—that includes both throws and runs. Hurts is seventh in scramble rate but 26th in EPA per scramble this season; last year, he was sixth and ninth, respectively.
Using the eye test, it’s not hard to see why Hurts is struggling as a runner. Hurts seems far more cautious around contact now than he did last season. Perhaps it’s a coaching point, a reaction to Hurts’s shoulder injury from last season—the Eagles did invest in Hurts by giving him a massive second contract, and protecting him from injury is protecting the future of the franchise. But Hurts’s willingness to play through contact—his strength in the pocket, his tackle-breaking as a runner—was a huge part of his success last season. And this year, it feels like it’s just … gone.
As a passer, Hurts is a little more muddled. The Eagles relied on the running game heavily in September, taking advantage of light boxes and dominant offensive line play. Accordingly, Hurts has become more of a downfield shot-play passer, which lends itself to low success rates—it’s a feast-or-famine play style. And in that play style, star wide receiver A.J. Brown has awoken, because hey, turns out he’s really good! And so is DeVonta Smith! The Eagles passing offense is not suffering from the same issue the passing defense is—it has dominant personnel and can get away with more mistakes accordingly.
That’s why, even as Hurts struggles, the Eagles offense hangs on. It does more than hang on: It scores 34 points and wins. In fact, the Eagles just keep winning, no matter the game script. Comeback, slow-paced, sloppy, physical, explosive, whatever. In Hurts’s past 22 regular-season starts, the Eagles are 21-1. Say whatever you want about the advanced metrics: Hurts always remains calm, and the Eagles never spiral. No matter which way you slice it, 4-0 is 4-0.
But the way I’m slicing it, it feels like a very tenuous 4-0. I haven’t seen the 2023 Eagles play like the 2022 Eagles did, and with the gauntlet of a schedule they’re about to run through, I don’t think that zero will hang at the end of their record for much longer.
(Mostly Real) Awards
I’ll hand out some awards. Most of them will be real. Some of them won’t be.
Most Valuable Player (of the Week): 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey
I’d like to start the actual “McCaffrey for MVP” hype train right here, right now. McCaffrey scored four of the 49ers’ five touchdowns on Sunday, extending his streak of games with a score to 13 (the new franchise record, unseating Jerry Rice). Since the 49ers acquired McCaffrey after Week 6 last season, they are the leading offense in overall success rate and are second only to the Dolphins in EPA per drive. McCaffrey is tied for the league lead among all running backs in routes run, and is first in team target percentage and receiving first downs (he has 37; second place has 28). He also has more explosive rushes than anyone else. McCaffrey is the best back in the NFL and an irreplaceable, integral part of the 49ers offense. Give him the award this week, and give it to him this year, too.
Defensive Player of the Year (of the Week): Chargers edge rusher Khalil Mack
With Joey Bosa and Derwin James out with injuries (and cornerback J.C. Jackson effectively benched for a second straight game), it felt like the Chargers defense was totally out of stars. But then the old game-wrecking Mack made an appearance, with six sacks on Raiders rookie quarterback Aidan O’Connell. That is, obviously, a wild day—but it isn’t Mack’s first time feasting like this. He’s now the second player in history with multiple five-plus-sack performances, joining Hall of Famer Derrick Thomas.
Mack has been extremely hot and cold for the Chargers since he joined the team in 2022. But against his original squad, the Raiders? Ridiculously hot.
The Enjoyable Dumpster Fire Award: Bears-Broncos
On one side, the Broncos, who gave up 70 points to the Dolphins last week. On the other side, the Bears, who gave up 41 points to the Chiefs (and had their defensive coordinator resign for some reason) last week and whose quarterback, Justin Fields, said coaching is ruining him and whose vibes are just generally off. Let’s play some football!
This actually ended up being a very fun game! Fields had his best game in a while, looking dynamic and accurate as a passer. Of course, because the Bears are the Bears, they gave up 24 unanswered points in a second-half meltdown that included a Fields fumble that turned into a Broncos scoop-and-score touchdown, and then ended with a Fields pick on a miscommunication with a receiver (something that happens about nine times a game in Chicago). But we’ll always have those first three quarters!
Thank you, Bears-Broncos, for exceeding my expectations.
The Future Atlanta Falcon Award: Titans QB Ryan Tannehill
We already did the Marcus Mariota thing in Atlanta. You’re telling me head coach Arthur Smith isn’t considering slapping together a downright irresponsible trade package for a 35-year-old quarterback in the final year of his deal? Of course, the Titans are (somehow) 2-2, and will probably be above .500 at the trade deadline at the end of this month, so they’ll probably be too busy with their own playoff push to consider this.
But I like it.
The Reason Bill Belichick Retires Award: Patriots QB Mac Jones
Do I believe Jones will actually be the reason Belichick retires? Absolutely not. Am I willing to peddle this take anyway? Absolutely yes. See the tweet below for further evidence.
The Always F------ Open Award: Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase
Chase had seven catches for 73 yards against the Titans on Sunday, which is an objectively fine day for a receiver. Coming off a 12-catch, 141-yard game against the Rams last week, it’s a small step back, but still: Chase has been effective these past two games.
With that said, the Bengals are 1-3, and their offense looks dreadful. And whenever that happens, star players start to get frustrated.
Chase’s running mate at wide receiver, Tee Higgins, is now expected to miss several weeks with a rib injury. Quarterback Joe Burrow, who is bottom five right now in success rate, took nine hits on the day. This fragile Bengals offensive approach is quickly breaking, and short of them suddenly becoming a very good running team, I don’t see a way out.
Next Ben Stats
What it sounds like: Next Gen Stats, but I get to make them up.
4.7 percentage points: The amount of win probability the Chargers gained when Brandon Staley went for another controversial fourth-down call
The Chargers have won consecutive games. In both, they have attempted—and failed to convert—a short fourth down in their own territory while nursing a late fourth-quarter lead. Here are the screenshots of those fourth-down attempts so you can see field position, timeouts, and the like.
Against the Vikings last week, the Chargers got stuffed on a fourth-down handoff to the fullback. Minnesota then drove to first-and-goal before throwing an interception in the end zone. Against the Raiders on Sunday, Herbert was stuffed on the fourth-down sneak, but once again, the Chargers defense intercepted a pass in the deep red zone to preserve the Chargers’ lead. At first glance, it looks like two bad coaching decisions to go for it on fourth down were salvaged by two very lucky plays.
That is not the case. Rather, an optimal decision played out suboptimally but still ended up positive for the smart team: the Chargers.
Against the Raiders, the decision to go was strongly favored, with L.A. adding 4.7 percentage points of win probability. Against the Vikings, the value was even larger: 6.4 percentage points.
Why is leaving the offense on the field optimal? Fourth-and-1s should be easy to pick up, of course; and if you pick them up, the time you can burn off the clock pretty much decides the game. By picking up either first down, the Chargers would have exhausted their opponents of timeouts before either converting a game-deciding first down or punting deep into opposing territory. Just get 1 yard, and the game is functionally over.
But even if you don’t get 1 yard, it’s not like you immediately lose the game, as is so clearly demonstrated by the past two weeks of football! You still have a lead late in the fourth quarter—an excellent position to be in, independent of how you got there. Your defense can generate stops or force turnovers, but even if it surrenders a score, there will be time remaining. In short: The game can be functionally won on the fourth-down attempt, but it can’t be fully lost.
Of course, because the Chargers are the Chargers, it feels like they should know that they’ll never actually get that inch they need on fourth down. So goes the curse of the team. But as Nate Tice of The Athletic points out, the Chargers have actually been very good on fourth down in the fourth quarter under Staley.
What Staley did, in both games, was correct. It may feel unintuitive in our tummies—it certainly does in mine!—but that doesn’t mean it’s wrong. It means years of watching football taught us something, but we need to update our long-held beliefs in the face of new data. Any coach who would have punted the ball would have been actively hurting their team. Not that the opposing coach on Sunday would know anything about that.
$166,227.78: The amount of money the Bears paid Chase Claypool to stay home for their game against the Broncos
I would like to make it very clear: If anyone wants to pay me one-sixth of a million dollars to stay at home and watch TV on an NFL Sunday, I can be reached at bsolak@spotify.com or on Twitter @BenjaminSolak.
1: The number of Brock Purdy incompletions on Sunday
A 95 percent completion rate. With a depth of target of 8.6 yards. The next-closest depth of target in a 95 percent completion rate game in TruMedia’s database going back to 2000: 6.7 yards. Nearly 2 yards shallower.
Kyle Shanahan might be hacking.
100 percent: How many of Stefon Diggs’s targets against man coverage came specifically against Kader Kohou
Kohou, usually a slot corner, was forced to line up outside for the Dolphins this week following an injury to Eli Apple. The Dolphins played a ton of zone coverage, as is typical for a Vic Fangio defense, but when they had to run man coverage, Diggs and Allen went hunting for Kohou. On those four targets: three receptions, 85 yards, and two scores. When Kohou was the nearest defender in man or zone coverage, Diggs caught five of six targets for 112 yards and three scores.
Diggs also stole a fan’s beers for a touchdown celebration. Good day in the office.