We’ve made it! Week 1 of the 2023 NFL regular season is here, and it’s time to go on the record with predictions—some bold, some not so bold—for how the next five months are going to play out. Will I embarrass myself with some of these? Of course. That’s part of the fun. Let’s get to it.
Stats in this piece are courtesy of TruMedia and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted.
1. Trevor Lawrence will win MVP.
The qualifications for winning MVP (in most cases) aren’t that complicated:
- You need to be a quarterback.
- You need to put up big numbers.
- You need to be on a team that wins a lot of games—usually that means being a top-two seed in your conference.
Lawrence has an excellent chance of hitting those requirements. In his first season with a competent coach last year, Lawrence completed 66.3 percent of his passes, threw for 4,113 yards, and had 25 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He was good in the nerd stats too, ranking sixth in expected points added (EPA) per pass play and 10th in success rate.
Who are the best passers in the NFL? Who are the worst? We used film analysis, advanced stats, and more to put the league’s passers in order.
So what’s the case for Lawrence being even better in 2023? One, this is his age-24 season. Lawrence is clearly an ascending player and nowhere near a finished product. Improvement isn’t always linear, but in this case, it should be. Two, he’s in his second season in Doug Pederson’s scheme. And three, the Jaguars added wide receiver Calvin Ridley. Lawrence put up big numbers last season with wide receivers Christian Kirk and Zay Jones as his primary targets. Ridley comes with question marks—he was suspended last season for violating the NFL’s gambling policy and hasn’t played in a regular-season game since October 2021—but he also has the upside to be a true no. 1 receiver.
Can the Jaguars have the team success necessary to vault Lawrence into the MVP conversation? I say yes. This team went 9-8 last season; that included a stretch in which it won six of its last seven to get into the playoffs. It won a wild-card game and played the Chiefs tough, losing by just a touchdown, in the divisional round. The Jaguars are a team on the rise, and they play in a bad division. Add it all up, and there’s a clear path for Lawrence to emerge as one of the stars of the 2023 season.
2. The Cincinnati Bengals will win the Super Bowl.
I told you some of these weren’t going to be that bold, but hey, I have to go on record with a Super Bowl pick, and I’ve got the Bengals this year.
What I like most about the Bengals is that they’ve shown the willingness and ability to evolve on both sides of the ball. The 2021 Super Bowl run was fun, but that was a flawed team. We all could see it. Joe Burrow was sacked an NFL-high 51 times that regular season, and he took 19 more sacks during the Bengals’ four-game postseason run. Since that Super Bowl loss, the Bengals have used free agency to completely revamp their offensive line over a two-year span. This year’s group, on paper, is the best and deepest that Burrow has played behind.
They’ve also done a great job of anticipating problems and finding solutions. The fireworks show in 2021 was thrilling to watch. The Bengals’ 63 completions of 20-plus yards that season were tied for fourth most in the NFL. But they knew teams were going to try to take away those big plays last season and traded in explosiveness for efficiency. The Bengals offense finished fourth in DVOA behind a strong running game and a passing game that feasted on the short and intermediate parts of the field.
Defensively, the Bengals could endure some growing pains in 2023, given that they lost their two starting safeties, Jessie Bates and Vonn Bell, in free agency. But defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo has shown an ability to do more with less talented players, and he’s come up with creative game plans to slow down some of the NFL’s top quarterbacks.
This is the Bengals’ time. Aside from Patrick Mahomes, no quarterback is more reliable than Burrow. He has the great pass-catching trio of Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd to throw to. This team is battle-tested, with playoff wins in Kansas City and Buffalo the past two seasons. It’s been knocking on the door the past two seasons. All the pieces are in place for the Bengals to burst through this time around.
3. Jalen Hurts will lead the NFL in completion percentage.
In general, we overrate the degree to which quarterbacks can improve their accuracy once they get to the NFL. Hurts is the rare player who has done it. He completed 52 percent of his passes in four starts as a rookie in 2020. In 2021, that number jumped up to 61.3 percent as the Eagles made the playoffs. And during last year’s Super Bowl run, it rose all the way up to 66.5 percent. I know 2020 was a small sample, but that’s a 14.5 percent jump in two seasons!
Hurts’s completion percentage last season ranked 11th among starting quarterbacks. He’s not a quarterback who likes to dink and dunk. Hurts wants to push the ball downfield. And while other quarterbacks benefit from easy completions on checkdowns, Hurts often just takes off and scrambles in those situations.
But his overall accuracy numbers are impressive. Next Gen Stats has a metric called completion percentage above expectation. It uses tracking data to assess the likelihood of a completion on every attempt, based on distance, receiver separation, pressure on the quarterback, and other factors. It then compares a quarterback’s expected completion percentage to his actual completion percentage. Hurts ranked sixth in completion percentage above expectation last year. And Pro Football Focus uses a metric called adjusted completion percentage to measure accuracy. It accounts for drops by receivers and removes spikes when the quarterback is just trying to stop the clock. The point is to isolate aimed throws that were on target. Hurts ranked fourth in adjusted completion percentage last year.
Things might not come as easily for the Eagles as last year, but Hurts is still playing behind a strong offensive line and has plenty to work with in wide receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, along with tight end Dallas Goedert. Given what he’s shown so far, I’m not putting a ceiling on Hurts’s evolution as a passer. I think he will make another leap in 2023.
4. Garrett Wilson will lead the NFL in receiving yards.
Wilson finished his rookie season with 1,103 receiving yards. Since 2000, only six rookie wide receivers have produced a higher number. I could rest my case there and move on to the next prediction, but let me remind you who Wilson was catching passes from: Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco, and Mike White!
Wilson now goes from those quarterbacks to Aaron Rodgers. Remember when Rodgers had a true no. 1 wide receiver in Davante Adams during his MVP seasons in 2020 and 2021? Know how many targets Adams averaged per game in those seasons? 10.6! The most of any player in the NFL in those two years.
You don’t really think Rodgers is going to get cute and concern himself with spreading the ball around, do you? Of course not. Especially if the Jets offensive line is struggling. He’s going to take every one-on-one matchup Wilson gets. And by the end of the season, Wilson’s numbers are going to be eye-popping.
5. The Carolina Panthers will win the NFC South.
Have you ever been so dug in on a take that even as new evidence presents itself, you can’t back off? Oh, no? Yeah, me neither! OK, let’s get to why the Panthers are going to win the division!
The NFC South stinks. The Bucs won the division at 8-9 last season. Maybe it’ll take 9-8 this year, but none of these teams are reaching double-digit wins. So we’re talking about a relatively low bar here. Relatedly, the Panthers have the fifth-easiest schedule when we look at projected win totals from the betting markets.
As for the actual team? I think its defense has a chance to be really good. The Panthers have a nice blend of young, talented players at premium positions and reliable veterans. Edge defender Brian Burns is coming off a 12.5-sack season. Jaycee Horn, when healthy, has looked like a no. 1 corner. Defensive tackle Derrick Brown and safety Jeremy Chinn are young, ascending players. And you know what you’re getting with reliable veterans like edge rusher Justin Houston and safety Vonn Bell. New defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero coached the Broncos to a top-10 DVOA ranking last year. I think there’s enough talent for him to do the same in Carolina.
The offense just needs to be good enough. Yes, it has a rookie quarterback in Bryce Young, and the lack of pass-catching talent scares me. But I’m counting on two things. One, that new head coach Frank Reich will be able to figure out a solution to its pass catcher problem. In 2019, the Colts went 7-9 with Jacoby Brissett as their quarterback and Zach Pascal as their leading receiver. I’m asking for competency from the pass catchers—nothing more.
And two, I’m counting on the offensive line to be solid. Every year, we remind ourselves not to take the preseason seriously when it comes to forecasting team performance. But everyone is so starved for football that they just can’t help themselves. It’s true—the Panthers offensive line didn’t look good in the preseason. Also true: This group played pretty well last year. Offensive line guru Brandon Thorn has the Panthers offensive line ranked 14th going into the season. I’m not going to let a couple of bad preseason games carry more weight than what they showed on film last year.
So there’s the case. Easy schedule. Bad division. Good defense. Competent offense. Good coach. Have I convinced you? No? OK, fine. We can just move on.
6. The Seattle Seahawks will win the NFC West.
Two things we know about Pete Carroll:
- The man doesn’t age.
- The man can coach.
Carroll’s Seahawks have had a winning record 10 times in the past 11 seasons. During his 13-year run in Seattle, Carroll has made the playoffs 10 times with three different quarterbacks.
In the first season of the post–Russell Wilson era, the Seahawks went 9-8 and made the postseason as a wild-card team. Part of me has serious questions about whether Geno Smith can do it again. But I look at the roster, and I see an improved offense.
The Seahawks rolled with two rookie offensive tackles last year. Those guys, theoretically, should be better in Year 2. The Seahawks added wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the first round of the draft. He suffered a wrist injury this summer, but is already back to practice. DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Smith-Njigba form one of the best wide receiver trios in the entire league. Smith doesn’t need to be Superman. He just needs to play point guard. And he looked pretty good in that role last season.
The defense is a question mark. Since the Legion of Boom days ended, this group has been mostly mediocre. I have concerns about the pass rush and the defensive line as a whole, but the Seahawks are talented in the secondary. I don’t know that this defense has a high ceiling, but I think it has a high floor.
OK, the real elephant in the room: Are they really better than the 49ers? Maybe. San Francisco is favored to win the division and understandably so. The Niners are loaded with talent. But their quarterback two-deep is Brock Purdy and Sam Darnold—one guy with eight career starts coming off an elbow injury and another guy who’s been one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL over the past five seasons.
If Purdy stays healthy, and his performance last season wasn’t a mirage, the 49ers have a legitimate Super Bowl ceiling. But I think they’re a high-variance team, and I think the Seahawks have enough to challenge them for—and take—the NFC West crown.
7. The Denver Broncos will make the playoffs.
I can’t believe I’m doing this, but really, it’s simple. When doing preseason prognostications, always look for the team that was the biggest train wreck the year before, and bank on them showing significant improvement. We probably need a name for this. How about The Urban Meyer Rule? Meyer was a complete mess in 2021. He was reportedly kicking kickers, skipping team flights, not recognizing famous NFL players. Just a historic display of incompetence. Those Jaguars went 3-14. Doug Pederson came in last year, and Jacksonville made a six-win jump to 9-8.
We saw it with the Giants too. Joe Judge was completely overmatched. New York went 4-13 in Judge’s final season in 2021. Brian Daboll took over last year, and they had a five-win jump to 9-7-1. Look around for that team this year, and every path will lead you back to the Broncos. I don’t want to pile on Nathaniel Hackett. He seems like a nice guy. I’d love to have him as a neighbor, and maybe he’ll be a good offensive coordinator with the Jets. But as a head coach, he was terrible.
The Broncos are replacing Hackett with one of the best coaches of the past 20 years. Sean Payton was 152-89 during his 15-season run with the Saints. The guy is a legit offensive mastermind. He also showed during the end of his run that he’s willing to win in different ways and can adapt to his personnel. The Saints went 8-1 with Teddy Bridgewater and Taysom Hill as their starters in 2019 and 2020.
There are other factors that point toward a Broncos rebound. They were a bad team last year, but they were also an unlucky team. The Broncos went 4-9 in games decided by seven points or fewer, and no team had more one-score losses. And they were also the most-injured team in the league, according to Football Outsiders’ adjusted games lost (AGL) metric.
Having said all of that, am I still terrified putting my name on this prediction? Of course. The Broncos have already suffered a couple of injuries at wide receiver. It’s possible that Russell Wilson is cooked. And I didn’t really love Denver’s offseason decisions, particularly in how it spent its money in free agency. But at the end of the day, this is a bet on Payton. I think Denver will be good enough to earn a wild-card berth.
8. Myles Garrett will break the single-season sack record.
At first, I was just going to predict that he’ll win Defensive Player of the Year. Then I thought maybe I’ll get a little more aggressive and predict a 20-sack season. But then a voice in my head said: Be bolder, Sheil. Be bolder. Don’t let these ruffians accuse you of being soft. So what the heck? I think Garrett’s going to have a monster year. I think he’s one of the best defensive players of this era. And I think he’s in his prime. So I’m going big and predicting that Garrett will break the sack record!
Over the past three seasons, Garrett’s 44 sacks are tops in the league. He’s been one of the most consistent pass rushers in the NFL, and what’s even more impressive is that Garrett’s done so despite being the most double-teamed player in the league last year.
The Browns’ offseason moves were centered on getting Garrett more help. They added edge rushers Za’Darius Smith and Ogbo Okoronkwo, along with defensive tackles Dalvin Tomlinson and Shelby Harris. They also replaced defensive coordinator Joe Woods with Jim Schwartz.
This is the most help that Garrett has ever had in his career. He had 16 sacks in 16 games last year. The number to beat is 22.5, the mark Michael Strahan set in 16 games in 2001, and T.J. Watt tied in 15 games in 2021. Watt and Strahan both had previous highs of 15 sacks before their record performances. They each got a little lucky one year and set the record. I think 2023 is going to be that year for Garrett.
9. The Green Bay Packers will make the playoffs.
Finding wild-card teams in the AFC is easy this year. In fact, you’ll probably end up leaving two or three teams out that you like. The NFC, however, is a completely different story. Wait, I HAVE to pick one of these teams to get in?
I went back and forth on a few teams like the Saints, Giants, and Bears. Ultimately, I decided to roll the dice on this Packers team for a few reasons. Let’s start with one that has nothing to do with analytics or x’s and o’s or personnel. Moving on from Aaron Rodgers has to give this team a sense of freedom. In previous years, every conversation revolved around Rodgers. Did they have the right coach to get him back to the Super Bowl? Was the supporting cast good enough to help him? Would they finally field a good defense that could complement the offense? That had to weigh on everyone in the building. Every season was Super Bowl or bust. And when Rodgers disapproved about pretty much anything, he wasn’t going to be shy about voicing his opinion.
It’s a totally different vibe now. There are no expectations for the 2023 Packers. Players can play freely and make mistakes and learn from them. The stakes are lower. It also seems likely that some players might feel: “It wasn’t just Rodgers. We’re pretty good players too.” When the Packers won games, Rodgers got credit. When they lost games, everyone else got the blame. That won’t be the case anymore. These guys are going to be motivated to prove that the Packers were not a one-man show. It’s possible that change will have a real galvanizing effect.
From a football perspective, the Packers have some things working in their favor. Last year, Rodgers was injured and didn’t play well, but the Packers still finished 11th in offensive DVOA. That’s because their run game was excellent. Running backs Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon are still there, and the scheme is the same. The offensive line should be good. In other words, I think the run game will still give this offense a high floor.
There’s also a chance that Matt LaFleur is a really good head coach. We’re talking about a guy who is 47-19 (.712) in four seasons. I know what some of you are going to say about that record. Yeah, but he had Aaron Rodgers. That’s true. But what evidence do we have that Rodgers is easy to coach? In fact, it might be quite the opposite. From 2008 to 2018, Rodgers-led teams won at least 13 games only once. From 2019 to 2021 with LaFleur, Rodgers’s teams did it three seasons in a row. I’m not putting LaFleur in the Hall of Fame. I’m not even sure he’s really good. But I’m open to the possibility.
As for new starting quarterback Jordan Love, who knows? I think he’s talented, and this is his fourth year learning LaFleur’s scheme. Aside from wide receiver Christian Watson, I don’t love the pass-catching group. But add in the run game and the offensive line, and Love has enough around him to succeed.
Defensively, the Packers are talented, and that gives them a high floor. But there’s no reason to give them the benefit of the doubt, given that Green Bay has underachieved the past two seasons under coordinator Joe Barry.
Where does that leave us? Love is one of the most high-variance players in the NFL. If he’s good, this team can win the NFC North. If he’s bad, the Packers could have a top-five pick next year. I land somewhere in between. I think he’ll have ups and downs and land in the middle tier of quarterbacks. That could be enough to get the Packers to 9-8 and into the playoffs.
10. The Arizona Cardinals will go into next year’s draft with two of the top five picks.
When I did my offensive and defensive rankings last week, I had the same team ranked 32nd in both exercises: the Arizona Cardinals. That pretty much never happens. There’s a chance I’m way off—especially on projecting the Cardinals offense. If Kyler Murray comes back in the middle of the season, maybe they win some games and are respectable.
But let me tell you, there’s a very different scenario that could unfold. The Cardinals just traded for quarterback Joshua Dobbs a couple of weeks ago, and it sounds like he’s the favorite to start for them. Dobbs has two career starts—both for the Titans last year, and both were losses.
For new head coach Jonathan Gannon, this season is about setting the culture. But for the Cardinals organization, the best path forward is probably to stink in 2023, land a top-two pick, and draft a quarterback prospect like Caleb Williams or Drake Maye. Are we sure they’re going to be motivated to get Murray back on the field? And are we sure Murray is going to want to play for a team that is in tanking mode? Remember, the Cardinals also own the Texans’ first-round pick after last year’s draft trade that netted Houston edge defender Will Anderson.
Right now, the Cardinals’ over/under win total is 4.5—the lowest for any team. The Texans are at 6.5. It’s entirely possible (I’m even saying it’s likely!) that the Cardinals will end up with two top-five picks by the end of the season. Throw in the fact that they probably would get another first if they were to trade Murray, and they could be in great shape for a rebuild (and don’t forget that they just drafted left tackle Paris Johnson sixth in April).
Cardinals fans are probably annoyed that the team is a laughingstock right now. But there’s a scenario in which they take their medicine this year and then are in great shape for a rebuild in 2024.
