If you include postseason results, Justin Herbert has gone 25-25 as a starting quarterback over his three NFL seasons. On the surface, it may seem confusing that this stretch of perfectly mediocre results convinced the Los Angeles Chargers to make the 25-year-old the highest-paid quarterback in the league with a five-year extension that was announced Tuesday, reportedly worth an ungodly $262.5 million. But Herbert should be worth every cent of that total.
I can bore you with all of the fine details, which include a big chunk of guaranteed money and a no-trade clause, but it’d be a waste of our time. As long as Herbert stays healthy, the Chargers will likely remain a playoff contender. He’s already viewed by league execs as a top-tier passer, and there is ample reason to believe that Herbert’s best football is still in front of him. His ribs were barely hanging on by a thread for a decent stretch last season, he played in an offense that didn’t seem designed to take advantage of his elite arm talent and athleticism, and Herbert still managed to lead L.A. to the postseason. This is a good deal that will almost certainly yield satisfying results for the Chargers.
Whether those results include a few playoff wins or a Super Bowl is more up in the air—even whether Herbert continues to play at a high level. This isn’t the first franchise quarterback the Chargers have rostered. They’ve had a Hall of Fame signal-caller in Dan Fouts, a future one in Drew Brees, and a guy who should make it to Canton in Philip Rivers. And to show for it, the team has mustered just 11 playoff wins since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger—the same number as Patrick Mahomes, who entered the league in 2017. The Chargers have a habit of wasting good things.
That’s been especially true of late. Los Angeles has been a popular postseason pick in recent years thanks to an expensive, top-heavy roster that includes Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, Rashawn Slater, Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack, J.C. Jackson, and Derwin James. That’s a lot of star power, but Mack (who joined last offseason) and Ekeler have been the only two of that group who’ve been regularly healthy for the Chargers. The roster is loaded on paper only; we’ve never really seen it all together on the field.
Even with all that rotten injury luck, the Chargers have been a competitive team thanks largely to Herbert’s brilliance. He’s navigated a porous offensive line with deft pocket management that has helped him produce some of the league’s best sack rates. His big arm has kept the Chargers competitive while head coach Brandon Staley has tried to solve the team’s defensive issues through trial and error—largely with poor results before an encouraging finish to 2022. Los Angeles made the playoffs last season after just missing out the previous season on a last-second field goal in overtime of a Week 18 loss in Las Vegas. A game that only made it to OT thanks to Herbert doing this:
And then this:
As was certainly the case in that season-ending defeat, Herbert’s failure to win is hard to pin on his own performance. He’s doing all the things quarterbacks on more successful teams typically do. Such as throwing for a bunch of yards and touchdowns:
Leading his team to a bunch of points:
And playing an efficient, mistake-free brand of football, leading all passers in turnover-worthy throw rate since entering the league, per Pro Football Focus.
Herbert has played winning football; the wins just haven’t come yet.
But even the most ardent Herbert apologists will admit that has to change if he is going to maintain a spot near the top of the league’s QB hierarchy. And now that Herbert is set to take up a large chunk of the team’s cap space, GM Tom Telesco will have a harder time providing the support to do so. Not that the Chargers did the greatest job of building a complete roster while Herbert was still on his rookie deal. The team has been below average defensively throughout that stretch and has yet to put a competent offensive line in front of its QB. The front office has put some decent receiving options around Herbert, but it’s had to pay way over sticker price in order to keep that stable together.
While the two coaching staffs the Chargers have employed during Herbert’s career have played a large role in the disappointing results—Herbert will have his third offensive coordinator, Kellen Moore, this season—Telesco should probably catch most of the heat for the team’s stagnation. Almost all of the star talent on the roster is old or overpaid, or worse—old and overpaid. There’s been a clear lack of depth that has been exposed by the team’s recent injury problems. And outside of a few hits in the first round, Telesco’s long draft record hasn’t produced a lot of longtime starters.
And now Telesco’s job gets harder. After playing GM on easy mode for the past few years, he’ll have to build a championship-level roster around a quarterback taking up a decent portion of the cap.
But as Herbert’s growing cap hit becomes more of a burden on the team’s budget, the blame for any roster mismanagement will shift from the front office to the guy making over $50 million a year. If the roster isn’t good enough, Herbert will simply have to be better. If the defense is giving up 30 points a game, he’ll just have to score 31. If his team is decimated by injuries and he’s playing with shattered ribs, Herbert will just have to power through it with that big, strong arm of his. And guess what? Ten measly wins and a short playoff appearance won’t be enough.
OK, so maybe this new deal won’t change the expectations placed on Herbert after all.
