The Updated NBA All In-dex
With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror, we analyzed all 30 teams to determine which are the most “all in” for the 2022-23 title and which are accumulating draft picks and planning for the long termThe Updated NBA All In-dex
With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror, we analyzed all 30 teams to determine which are the most “all in” for the 2022-23 title and which are accumulating draft picks and planning for the long term
Back in October, as the 2022-23 season was just beginning, we unveiled our NBA version of the “All In-dex,” which sought to rigorously rank each team, one through 30, based on how all in it’s gone to win now. On the one end were super-spenders like the Los Angeles Clippers and Golden State Warriors; on the other sat the Utah Jazz and Oklahoma City Thunder, who dreamt about all their future draft picks rather than a possible title in 2023.
Four months later, after a busy trade deadline and the biggest in-season blockbuster in years, it’s time to update the All In-dex order. There’s a new no. 1 in this update. One team has zoomed up the rankings. And another has plummeted from the top 10 to the bottom five.
For a more thorough explanation of our methodology, read our original story from October. But for a quick summary, All In-dex scores have two components: (1) the money index, based on a team’s total projected payments, including luxury tax, for the next three seasons, and (2) the draft index, accounting for all unprotected picks, protected picks, and pick swaps through 2029.
Positive numbers mean more all in and negative numbers mean less. Scores are normalized so the average is zero. Here are the overall rankings; below the chart, we’ll go team by team from most to least all in, providing commentary on the notable risers and fallers over the past few months.
1. Golden State Warriors
Draft rank: 12th
Money rank: 1st
Previous overall rank: 2nd
2. Los Angeles Clippers
Draft rank: 5th
Money rank: 2nd
Previous overall rank: 1st
Let’s talk about these two big spenders together, because they’re at the top for one clear, common reason: They’re spending way more money than anyone else in the sport.
To be fair, both rosters became a bit cheaper at the deadline. The Warriors saved millions in luxury tax payments by trading 2020 no. 2 pick James Wiseman; the Clippers swapped Reggie Jackson for Mason Plumlee, who’s a bit less expensive, and also added Eric Gordon, who has a non-guaranteed deal for next season, while trading Luke Kennard, who’s signed through next year with a club option for 2024-25.
The differentiating factor here is that the Warriors’ future payments outstrip the Clippers’, even though their spending is close this season. According to Spotrac, the Warriors project for by far the highest payments in the league in 2023-24, at more than $100 million ahead of the second-place Clippers. And the Warriors’ spending won’t end then, as they also rank fourth in projected payments in 2024-25 and third in 2025-26. Golden State already knows that three years from now, it will owe Steph Curry, Andrew Wiggins, and Jordan Poole a combined $121 million; meanwhile, the only Clipper signed through 2025-26 is Norman Powell, at $20 million that season.
Note that the two teams most all in right now are battling to avoid the play-in round, rather than pushing to the top of the Western Conference standings. There is a moderately strong correlation between a team’s All In-dex score and its 2022-23 winning percentage (0.48, on a scale from 0 to 1), but that relationship doesn’t apply for every team. Given all the investment in the current rosters with both money and draft equity, the Warriors and Clippers would reasonably expect to play better than they have for the first 60 or so games. At least Golden State has last year’s title and recent dynasty to fall back on; the Clippers are in Year 4 of the Kawhi Leonard–Paul George era with only a single conference finals appearance—granted, the first in franchise history—to show for it.
3. Phoenix Suns
Draft rank: 1st
Money rank: 3rd
Previous overall rank: 12th
Before last week, the Suns had all their own future picks and none from anybody else, which led me to deem them, in October’s story, “the most boring team to analyze” from an All In-dex perspective. Not anymore!
Instead, they showcased the quickest way to rocket up these rankings: Trade four future unprotected picks, plus a pick swap, for a 34-year-old signed for three more seasons and $150 million after this one. In adding Kevin Durant, the Suns leapt from seventh place in the preseason money index to third, and from a tie for 19th in the draft index to first.
A whole set of dominoes had to fall to make the Suns’ trade for Durant possible, but one key is the presence of new franchise owner Mat Ishbia. In October, I wrote that the Suns “could theoretically use some of those unfettered picks to boost a roster with championship ambitions, but can they add meaningful salary when Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton, Chris Paul, and Mikal Bridges are already signed long term?” The answer was probably a no when Robert Sarver owned the team, but Ishbia embraced the additional expenditures because they came with improved odds at a title right away. That’s precisely the “all in” mindset these rankings are designed to measure.
4. Milwaukee Bucks
Draft rank: 4th
Money rank: 5th
Previous overall rank: 3rd
5. Minnesota Timberwolves
Draft rank: 2nd
Money rank: 12th
Previous overall rank: 7th
In the preseason, the Timberwolves ranked no. 1 in the draft index. Now they’re second, behind the Suns, because all the picks Phoenix agreed to send Brooklyn are unprotected, whereas Minnesota kept top-five protections on the 2029 pick it sent to Utah in the Rudy Gobert trade. (As my editor sardonically notes, hooray! Go celebrate, Wolves fans!)
But Minnesota jumped two spots in the rankings regardless because it rose in the money index, as the franchise took on more future commitments by effectively swapping D’Angelo Russell, a free agent after this season, for Mike Conley, whose contract is partially guaranteed for 2023-24. Also, mark the 31-29 Timberwolves down in the Warriors-Clippers category of a team that’s stuck in play-in territory despite pushing all in for the present. At least the Warriors have their recent titles, and at least the Clippers have the star duo who can theoretically push the team that far this spring.
6. Denver Nuggets
Draft rank: 9th
Money rank: 4th
Previous overall rank: 4th
The Nuggets were less active than other top Western Conference contenders at this year’s deadline—perhaps because they had fewer resources to deal than the likes of the Grizzlies, Mavericks, and Suns. Thanks to trades for R.J. Hampton, Aaron Gordon, and a JaMychal Green salary dump, the Nuggets already owed future first-rounders in 2023, 2025, and 2027 (the latter two protected), so the best they could do on deadline day was package a trio of second-rounders to improve their backup center spot, via erstwhile Lakers big Thomas Bryant.
7. Cleveland Cavaliers
Draft rank: 3rd
Money rank: 13th
Previous overall rank: 5th
I could almost copy-paste the Nuggets paragraph into Cleveland’s section: The Cavaliers were less active than other top Eastern Conference contenders at this year’s deadline—perhaps because they had fewer resources to deal than the likes of the Celtics, Bucks, and 76ers. Thanks to trades for Donovan Mitchell and Caris LeVert, the Cavaliers control only one of their first-rounders between now and 2029, so the best they could do on deadline day was, well, nothing, instead opting to wait for Danny Green in the buyout market.
8. Atlanta Hawks
Draft rank: 8th
Money rank: 8th
Previous overall rank: 10th
9. Boston Celtics
Draft rank: 14th
Money rank: 6th
Previous overall rank: 9th
10. Miami Heat
Draft rank: 15th
Money rank: 7th
Previous overall rank: 8th
11. Dallas Mavericks
Draft rank: 10th
Money rank: 11th
Previous overall rank: 13th
Besides the Suns, only one team traded an unprotected first-round pick at the deadline: the Mavericks, who acquired the other All-Star who wanted out of Brooklyn. Trading for Kyrie Irving pushed Dallas just two spots up the rankings, however, far fewer than the nine spots Phoenix jumped. Why?
The obvious reason is that the pick package for Durant dwarfed that for Irving; you don’t need to be a mathematician to determine that four picks plus a swap is greater than one pick plus no swaps. Phoenix can no longer trade any future first-rounder, while Dallas can trade two more once its obligation to the Knicks—the last vestige of the Kristaps Porzingis trade—departs this summer.
The less obvious reason is that, while Durant added nine figures to the Suns’ future financial guarantees, the Irving trade actually dropped Dallas’s money index ranking from October. Both Spencer Dinwiddie and Dorian Finney-Smith, who went to Brooklyn in the Irving swap, are under contract past this season, while Irving will reach free agency in July. If Dallas enjoys its half-season experience with Kyrie and re-signs him to a lucrative deal, its money rank will change—but for now, the Mavericks still have plenty of flexibility on both draft and financial fronts.
12. Philadelphia 76ers
Draft rank: 6th
Money rank: 19th
Previous overall rank: 11th
13. Los Angeles Lakers
Draft rank: 7th
Money rank: 17th
Previous overall rank: 15th
The Lakers went more all in as they traded a top-four-protected 2027 first-rounder during their deadline spree, shipping it plus Russell Westbrook out as they added D’Angelo Russell, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Malik Beasley. But they kept hold of their 2029 first, and their relative lack of long-term financial commitments—LeBron James and Anthony Davis are the only players on the roster who are signed through 2024-25, and even they have player options for that season—keeps them closer to the middle of the pack than to the highest spenders at the top of the rankings.
14. Portland Trail Blazers
Draft rank: 19th
Money rank: 14th
Previous overall rank: 14th
15. Washington Wizards
Draft rank: 15th
Money rank: 18th
Previous overall rank: 16th
16. Chicago Bulls
Draft rank: 11th
Money rank: 21st
Previous overall rank: 17th
17. New York Knicks
Draft rank: 23rd
Money rank: 9th
Previous overall rank: 22nd
The Knicks lead the league in deals for unremarkable first-round picks. Here’s what I mean with that backhanded compliment: The value of a first-round pick drops off dramatically beyond the first few selections; according to Kevin Pelton’s draft chart, the gap between pick no. 1 and pick no. 7 is about as large as the gap between pick no. 7 and pick no. 60.
And almost all the Knicks’ draft maneuvers involve picks with protections that guarantee they won’t be on the super-valuable end of the spectrum. The Knicks own a top-10-protected first from the Mavericks, a top-14-protected first from the Wizards, and a top-18-protected pick from the Pistons. (They recently held a top-18-protected first from the Hornets, too, before trading it for Cam Reddish.) Meanwhile, after their deadline deal for Josh Hart, they now owe a top-14-protected pick to the Trail Blazers. The only pick that breaks that mold is a top-four-protected pick from the Bucks in 2025—and good luck gaining meaningful value from that pick with Giannis Antetokounmpo still under contract for Milwaukee.
18. Memphis Grizzlies
Draft rank: 22nd
Money rank: 15th
Previous overall rank: 19th
Just as a hypothetical, if the Grizzlies had traded three first-round picks for OG Anunoby at the deadline, as they reportedly offered for the archetypal 3-and-D wing, and all those picks were unprotected, they’d have jumped all the way to 10th in the All In-dex rankings.
19. Sacramento Kings
Draft rank: 15th
Money rank: 22nd
Previous overall rank: 18th
20. Toronto Raptors
Draft rank: 13th
Money rank: 23rd
Previous overall rank: 20th
If the Raptors had agreed to that hypothetical Anunoby deal with the Grizzlies, they’d have fallen to 26th in the rankings.
21. Detroit Pistons
Draft rank: 18th
Money rank: 26th
Previous overall rank: 23rd
22. New Orleans Pelicans
Draft rank: 26th
Money rank: 10th
Previous overall rank: 21st
23. Charlotte Hornets
Draft rank: 20th
Money rank: 29th
Previous overall rank: 24th
24. Indiana Pacers
Draft rank: 21st
Money rank: 28th
Previous overall rank: 27th
The Pacers aren’t like the other franchises that ranked at the bottom of the All In-dex in October. First, they’re better this season than most of those teams, who are more concerned with their Victor Wembanyama lottery odds than they are with potentially qualifying for the play-in tournament this season. Second, and more relevant to this exercise, is that the Pacers don’t actually have much future draft capital beyond their own picks. While the likes of Houston, Oklahoma City, San Antonio, and Utah have all completed blockbuster trades for massive pick hauls, Indiana owns only two, less valuable extra selections: a top-12-protected pick from the Celtics and a top-14-protected pick from the Cavaliers, via the Malcolm Brogdon and LeVert trades, respectively.
That distinction suggests a different timetable for Indiana’s plan to return to true playoff contention, and also stands out even more alongside the Pacers’ decision not to trade Buddy Hield and Myles Turner for more future picks. Instead, they went the other direction and chose to extend Turner, which increased their future financial commitments and pushed them three spots higher in the updated All In-dex rankings.
25. Orlando Magic
Draft rank: 24th
Money rank: 24th
Previous overall rank: 26th
26. Brooklyn Nets
Draft rank: 27th
Money rank: 16th
Previous overall rank: 6th
If one team bursts up the rankings with a single trade, then naturally a different team must plunge down—all those unprotected picks have to go somewhere. And the five picks and one swap that Brooklyn received in the Durant and Irving exchanges don’t just replace the picks the Nets themselves traded to acquire James Harden two years ago. (Was it really only two years ago? So much drama in so little time.) Because the Nets still owe “only” two picks and three swaps to Houston, they’re actually net-positive on future draft capital now, by a significant margin.
The Nets’ draft index ranking fell from seventh in the preseason to 27th now, and trading Durant’s contract means their money index ranking also tumbled, from fifth to 16th. Because they don’t control their own future picks, the Nets can’t embark on a tank mission—but with a roster full of solid wings, future financial flexibility, and a whole lot of extra picks, they now have a hopeful future, as long as they can put the emotional damage of the failed superteam behind them.
27. Houston Rockets
Draft rank: 25th
Money rank: 27th
Previous overall rank: 25th
28. Oklahoma City Thunder
Draft rank: 29th
Money rank: 20th
Previous overall rank: 29th
29. San Antonio Spurs
Draft rank: 28th
Money rank: 30th
Previous overall rank: 28th
30. Utah Jazz
Draft rank: 30th
Money rank: 25th
Previous overall rank: 30th
