The Ringer’s NFL writers answer the pressing questions ahead of this weekend’s conference championship games.
1. What’s your biggest takeaway from the postseason so far?
Nora Princiotti: The right teams are in the final four.
Sheil Kapadia: In the NFC, it felt like a three-team race between the Eagles, 49ers, and Cowboys for most of the season, and we get two of those teams in the championship game. In the AFC, it felt like a three-team race between the Chiefs, Bengals, and Bills, and we get two of those teams too. It’s rare to get two games that both feature lines under three points. This is going to be fun.
Lindsay Jones: After another weird season in which it could be hard to tell which teams were actually good, the four best separated themselves at the right time. The Bills falling out of the picture late is a bit disappointing, but ultimately they didn’t have the roster depth at key positions and Josh Allen just wasn’t playing well enough in the biggest games. The teams we have left all excel in the most important aspects of championship football: coaching, quality QB play, and pass rush.
Danny Kelly: Things have played out … about how you’d expect? And while I know the Bengals technically upset the Bills last week, they’ve been on an absolute tear the last two months and are undeniably firing on all cylinders. The 49ers and Eagles have the two most deep and talented rosters in football. And the Chiefs are the Chiefs, even with a hobbled Patrick Mahomes. If I had drawn up a “best matchups we can hope for list” at the start of the playoffs, this is probably what I would’ve had.
Austin Gayle: Mahomes is in a tier by himself at the quarterback position. All 31 other teams have to be near perfect in roster construction, play calling and every other phase of the game just to keep pace with him. We’re running out of superlatives to detail just how different Mahomes is compared to the rest of the NFL’s signal callers.
Steven Ruiz: That Kyle Shanahan is the most valuable coach in the NFL. Calm down, I’m not saying he’s the best. But I’ve now seen him win two playoff games with a rookie seventh-round pick at quarterback and score 60 combined points in the process. Maybe you think highly of Brock Purdy, but doing this with any rookie passer would be an impressive feat. And it’s also not the first time we’ve seen Shanahan extract elite production out of a middling QB talent. Jimmy Garoppolo, who’s probably a league-average starter in a vacuum, has been in the top four most efficient quarterbacks in the league over the last few years. Hell, Shanahan had Nick Mullens tying franchise records as an undrafted free agent! Shanahan is a top-10 quarterback unto himself, and there isn’t another coach in the league we can say that about.
Ben Solak: Tackle, tackle, tackle, tackle. The Niners nailed their tackling on all of the Cowboys’ underneath routes, and they advanced. The Bengals turned every 3-yard run into a 5-yard gain and every 7-yard pass into a 12-yard gain against Buffalo because the Bills struggled to tackle. We don’t talk about tackling enough in-season, but the teams that tackle well move on.
Danny Heifetz: Whopper Whopper Whopper Whopper.
Rodger Sherman: Junior double triple Whopper.
2. What are you most excited to see in the NFC title game?
Kelly: We’re getting the conference’s best offense in the Eagles against its best defense in the 49ers. It’s a classic heavyweight matchup.
Gayle: DeMeco Ryans’s game plan against the Eagles offense. Philly didn’t have to put much of anything on tape in a dominant win over the Giants in the divisional round, but I expect offensive coordinator Shane Steichen to get deep into his bag and hit Ryans with everything he’s got. Ryans’s counterpunch will be a marvel to watch.
Jones: What is Ryans’s plan for Jalen Hurts as a runner? The Niners are deep and athletic across the front seven, and have the NFL’s best inside linebacker in Fred Warner (go back and watch him in deep pass coverage last week against Dallas—that is not something middle linebackers are supposed to be able to do!), but we have yet to see that group play a dual-threat QB like Hurts this postseason. The Eagles have shown us over and over that they can win multiple ways, but the 49ers defense might be the one unit in the league equipped to handle all of them.
Solak: The Eagles win.
Kapadia: The Eagles offense against the 49ers defense. This is classic strength-on-strength. The biggest matchup might be on the outside. On paper, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith should have an advantage against 49ers corners Charvarius Ward and Deommodore Lenoir. If they can hit on a couple big plays or take advantage of the comeback routes and out-breaking routes outside the numbers, the Eagles offense should be able to move the ball. If they can’t, the 49ers will have the advantage.
Princiotti: I want to see whether Brock Purdy already had the “bad” game—the flub we should naturally expect from a rookie seventh-round quarterback—in the divisional round. If the 49ers still made it work against a higher-level defense and through some of Purdy’s jitters, look out.
Ruiz: It’s such a cliché football guy answer, but I’m going with the battle in the trenches between the 49ers defensive line and the Eagles offensive line. Both units are the best in the league, and this is the matchup that will likely decide the game. If the Eagles can run the football and protect Hurts, this won’t be much of a contest.
3. What are you most excited to see in the AFC title game?
Jones: Can you see vibes? (I’ll ask my much cooler, younger colleagues about that.) But in essence, I’m watching this game for the vibes—what’s Joe Burrow going to wear? How turned up will the Arrowhead crowd be? Will Mahomes go villain mode while playing on that sprained ankle and will the Chiefs to a win?
Heifetz: Seeing whether Burrow can make his third title game in his last four seasons (two Super Bowls plus the College Football Playoff when he was at LSU). That’s pretty ridiculous!
Ruiz: Mahomes going up against Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo. Mahomes has found some success early in games against Cincinnati, but Anarumo always seems to find an adjustment that works just well enough to pull out a win. With Mahomes nursing a sprained ankle, Anarumo could get even more creative with this plan—not having to worry (as much) about Mahomes breaking contain means the Bengals can dedicate more defenders to coverage. Andy Reid will have to help his quarterback out a little, and in the previous three matchups, he’s been outcoached—which doesn’t happen very often.
Solak: How Anarumo game-plans against a limited Mahomes. Anarumo is one of the best one-off defensive game planners in the league—he proved as much in last year’s AFC championship game with the famous second half that broke Mahomes and the Chiefs offense. But you can’t pitch the same stuff against Mahomes week in and week out and expect to survive. He’s going to have to come with new twists, and he’ll have the advantage of knowing Mahomes is a little hampered moving in the pocket.
Kelly: Probably for Mahomes to inevitably pull something crazy out of his ass despite playing on one leg.
Kapadia: Could we get Mahomes’s version of the Flu Game? We all saw how limited he was in the second half last week, but he gets a week to rest and recover going into this game. Perhaps more importantly, Reid got a full week to figure out what kind of game plan to employ, knowing Mahomes’s mobility will be limited. There’s a chance that 20 years from now, when we’re talking about Mahomes as an all-time great, this becomes one of the first performances we point to.
Princiotti: Can Anarumo paint another masterpiece? The DC has thrived in designing game plans specific to each opponent, but they all have the impact of making the opposing quarterback hold the ball longer than usual. It will be extra impressive if he and the Bengals can keep this going against Kansas City.
Gayle: Burrow. He has elevated his game to absurd, even unfathomable heights this season, and now he’s on the precipice of reaching rarified air with a chance to advance to his second Super Bowl in just his third year in the league.
4. Which team’s performance were you most surprised by (positively or negatively) in the divisional round?
Solak: The Cowboys, who kept the game against the 49ers far closer than I thought they would. Offensively they struggled and couldn’t finish the job, but the defense managed to overcome injuries in the secondary and a stylistic mismatch to hold the 49ers to only 19 points and a lot of field goal attempts. Dan Quinn’s work with Dallas’s defense is some of the best coaching we’ve seen in the last few seasons.
Princiotti: Cincinnati. The way the Bengals neutralized the Bills’ pass rush and compensated for their injuries along the offensive line was brilliant.
Gayle: The Bengals threw Bills Mafia through a table and out of Orchard Park. Cincinnati was the tougher, more physical team in every phase and bullied Buffalo for four quarters.
Ruiz: The Bengals’ win over the Bills was, by far, the most impressive win of last weekend. It wasn’t surprising that Cincinnati won, but the manner in which they did it was kind of shocking. Its banged-up offensive line, which was missing three starters, dominated Buffalo’s front all afternoon. The running game was grinding out nice chunk-gains, and Burrow rarely faced pressure. If the offensive line keeps this up, the Bengals should be considered the favorites to win it all.
Jones: The 49ers offense was underwhelming. I’m not sure if I was necessarily disappointed, because the Cowboys defense is quite good, but seeing Purdy miss some big throws early at least raised my eyebrows. I think that offense is talented enough and diverse enough to get the big plays when it needs them (see: George Kittle, catching a deep ball after it deflected off his facemask), but I want to see Shanahan rise to the play-calling occasion after a down week for his offense in the divisional round.
Sherman: Did the Bills know they were playing in a single-elimination postseason game when they got trucked by a bunch of backup offensive linemen and scored a season-low 10 points? We were all rooting for you!
Kapadia: The Bills. Going into that game, they had three losses by a total of eight points. No team had beat them by more than a field goal. But Burrow and the Bengals went up and down the field with ease against Buffalo’s defense. And on the other side of the ball, Anarumo’s defense completely shut the Bills down. That was so impressive for the Bengals, and so disappointing for the Bills.
Kelly: It was pretty weird to see the Bills come out so flat at home. It started to feel more clear that despite having a top-shelf QB/WR duo in Allen and Stefon Diggs, Buffalo needs a few more dynamic playmakers on that side of the ball. They just couldn’t go punch-for-punch with the combination of Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Joe Mixon, and Tyler Boyd, among others.
5. Who is your non-QB MVP of the postseason so far?
Sherman: Greg Olsen. It’s the time of the year when only the biggest names are left standing: None of those fourth- and fifth-tier CBS and FOX crews who work the least relevant games in the 1 p.m. ET time slot—each network only gets one or two playoff games per round, so only the top broadcasters remain. And the difference between Olsen and whichever former Cowboys QB happens to be on air before or after him on the other games is massive. Olsen gives quick, accessible breakdowns of the football things happening in front of him, and regularly picks up on things other announcers don’t. Two of the four teams playing this weekend will be eliminated—luckily we know Olsen is going to be there on Super Bowl Sunday.
Jones: Defensive coordinators are shining this postseason, and I’ve got to pick Anarumo. The Bengals have been the best third-down and red-zone defense in the playoffs of any of the four teams left in the field, and he had a perfect plan for shutting down Allen and the Bills last week. We’ve already seen him scheme the heck out of his game plans for Mahomes. Can he do it again?
Gayle: Ryans. The 49ers survived an underwhelming performance from Purdy and the offense against Dallas because Ryans can’t miss. He’s an unbelievable defensive play caller at the peak of his powers.
Ruiz: I’ll go with Fred Warner, who against the Cowboys put on one of the more impressive displays we’ve seen from a linebacker in recent history. His red-zone interception of Dak Prescott may have ultimately won the 49ers the game, and he also saved a possible touchdown by matching star receiver CeeDee Lamb stride-for-stride on a vertical route downfield:
No other linebacker in the league is making that play.
Kapadia: Warner. He was incredible last week. To be able to line up in the A-gap and then drop and run with Lamb is just so rare. That was a huge play for the 49ers. There’s not a more impactful off-ball linebacker in the NFL.
Solak: By the box score, Travis Kelce is probably the pick—14 catches for 98 yards and two scores against the Jaguars.
Kelly: I mean, I know the Chiefs have only played one game, but Kelce catching approximately one million passes last week to step up when the team really needed a spark was huge. They’re going to need him big-time this week too, with Mahomes now hobbled.
Princiotti: George Kittle, for making the biggest play on San Francisco’s lone touchdown drive against Dallas.
Heifetz: I’m going to give co-MVP awards to Bengals linebackers Germaine Pratt and Logan Wilson, and Bengals defensive end Sam Hubbard. At the end of Cincinnati’s game against the Ravens in the wild-card round, Pratt and Wilson knocked the ball out of Ravens QB Tyler Huntley’s hands as Huntley was reaching for the end zone, and Hubbard scooped and scored the ball for the longest fumble recovery touchdown in playoff history. Those three turned a game that was about to be 24-17 Ravens into 24-17 Bengals. It could be a season- and franchise-altering play.
6. Who’s going to win each game?
Ruiz: I picked the Chiefs and 49ers to meet in the Super Bowl midseason, and I’m not moving off that now. Mahomes’s ankle is certainly a concern but he seems to be doing fine, and it’s hard to imagine this team losing a fourth game in a row to the same team. In the NFC, I just think the 49ers have too much firepower and Shanahan seems to be unstoppable at the moment. I wouldn’t be surprised by any result, though.
Kelly: I’m going with the Bengals and Eagles.
Kapadia: I like the Eagles and the Bengals. The Eagles are 15-1 this year with Hurts as their starter. And while he’s dealing with a shoulder injury, he looked healthy last week. I think the Eagles offensive line will be able to keep the 49ers pass rush in check, and Hurts will be able to make enough plays with his arm and legs to allow them to sustain drives. Defensively, the key will be the Eagles’ pass rush getting to Purdy.
I trust the Bengals coaching staff to come up with a smart game plan to take advantage of Mahomes’s likely limitations. And offensively, the Bengals are rolling. We know what Burrow, Chase, and company can do in the passing game, but they’ve been a really efficient rushing team too. It’s never comfortable betting against Mahomes, but I like Cincninati to get back to the Super Bowl.
Solak: The Eagles (go Birds) and the Chiefs. I think both games will be extremely close and I won’t mind being dumb and wrong in both of my predictions.
Sherman: The Chiefs and the Eagles. (I’m boring!)
Gayle: The Bengals win in Burrowhead Stadium, and the Eagles finally end Purdy’s spirited, improbable run.
Jones: I’ve been going back and forth between the Bengals and Chiefs all week (just like the Vegas line). Ask me again Sunday morning and I’ll probably have a different answer. But as of this writing, I’m picking the Chiefs in the AFC; I know Burrow is on a heater, but something just tells me Mahomes isn’t going to lose back-to-back title games at home. I’ll take the Eagles and their complete roster in the NFC.
Princiotti: The 49ers and the Chiefs.
Heifetz: Burger King.
