Officially at the halfway mark of the 2022 season, the Philadelphia Eagles stand out as the league’s biggest surprise: They weren’t even the favorite to win their division following the 2022 NFL draft, and seven other teams had better odds to win the NFC. Now, they’re the NFL’s only undefeated team and the odds-on favorite to secure the no. 1 seed in the conference. Other surprise teams at midseason are the Green Bay Packers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Los Angeles Rams—all for opposite reasons, and you’ll see that reflected in these rankings. The New York Jets, New York Giants, and Seattle Seahawks are easily the biggest movers compared to my preseason power rankings, as all three have jumped out of the bottom six and into the top half of the league after hot starts. The only team ranked in the exact same spot it was at the start of the season is the Houston Texans—all the way at the bottom.
Lines are from FanDuel. On to the rankings!
The Best of the Best
1. Philadelphia Eagles (8-0 | last week’s ranking: 2)
The undefeated Eagles are a runaway train in the NFC. Their odds to win the NFC have moved from +1100 before the season to +185 after Week 9’s Sunday games. According to SportsOddsHistory.com, no NFC team has had better than +200 odds to win the conference entering Week 10 since the Rams in 2018 (+125). They are the best team in football and have the easiest schedule remaining, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index. It’s Super Bowl or bust in Philly.
2. Buffalo Bills (6-2 | last week: 1)
Josh Allen summed up the Bills’ stunning Week 9 loss to the Jets perfectly when he told reporters after the game, “It’s tough to win in this league when you’re playing a good team and your quarterback plays like shit.” Allen fumbled twice, threw two ghastly interceptions, and finished the game with a season-low 205 passing yards on 34 attempts. The Bills are still the rightful Super Bowl favorites, but Sunday needs to be Allen’s last shitty game if Buffalo is going to stave off the Chiefs and secure the bye as the AFC’s top seed in January.
3. Kansas City Chiefs (6-2 | last week: 3)
Patrick Mahomes single-handedly makes the Chiefs a juggernaut. He replaced Josh Allen as the favorite to win MVP (+185) after Sunday’s win over the Titans, and enters Week 10 helming a Chiefs offense that’s leading the NFL in expected points added per drive—and the gap between Kansas City and the no. 2 Bills is the same as the Bills’ lead over the no. 18 Bears. Mahomes is the standard; every other quarterback is looking up at him right now.
Deep Postseason Contenders
4. Baltimore Ravens (6-3 | last week: 4)
Don’t sleep on Lamar Jackson as an MVP candidate. After securing a win over the Saints on Monday Night Football, the Ravens are tied with the Chiefs and Bills in the AFC with six wins going into their Week 10 bye. Despite injuries at running back, wide receiver, and along the offensive line, Jackson is leading a Baltimore offense that ranks eighth in EPA per drive, in large part because he is the league’s most efficient rusher by a substantial margin, ranking first among all ballcarriers with at least 80 attempts in EPA per rush and yards per carry (7.4).
5. Minnesota Vikings (7-1 | last week: 5)
There isn’t a single advanced metric that suggests the Vikings are even top-three contenders for a Super Bowl berth in the NFC despite their 7-1 record, and that’s reflected in the futures market. The Eagles, 49ers, and Cowboys all have better odds to win the NFC and the Super Bowl. The Vikings are also a 6.5-point dog against the Bills on the road next week. They’ll remain a top-five team on this list until their six-game win streak comes to an end, but it looks like Minnesota will fall behind Dallas and San Francisco soon enough. Vikings fans should celebrate in style like QB Kirk Cousins in the meantime.
6. Dallas Cowboys (6-2 | last week: 6)
The return of Dak Prescott elevated the Cowboys to deep postseason contenders, but it was the defense that provided a sky-high floor and prevented a collapse while he was sidelined with injury. Top-five in points allowed per game and success rate through Week 8, Dallas’s defense has allowed 20 or more points to just two teams this season (Eagles, Bears). Star cornerback Trevon Diggs and Defensive Player of the Year favorite Micah Parsons lead a top-flight pass defense that has allowed 200 passing yards in just one of its eight games.
7. Miami Dolphins (6-3, last week: 7)
We had the Dolphins as a middle-of-the-pack team (no. 17) in our rankings heading into Week 1—back before we knew exactly how all of Miami’s major offseason moves would work out. Through nine weeks, we have an answer:
Adding offensive mastermind Mike McDaniel and the league’s most dynamic player in Tyreek Hill has turned Miami into Super Bowl contenders overnight. McDaniel has unlocked a version of QB Tua Tagovailoa we haven’t seen since his days under Nick Saban at Alabama, and Hill is off to a historic pace and showing no signs of slowing down. In a league dominated by the best offenses, McDaniel, Tagovailoa, Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Co. are comfortably in the top tier.
Flawed Postseason Contenders
8. San Francisco 49ers (4-4 | last week: 8)
The 49ers need to get healthy. Period. Battling myriad injuries, specifically on defense, San Francisco ranked 23rd in total points allowed in weeks 5-8. The expectation is that DT Arik Armstead, LB Dre Greenlaw, and CB Jason Verrett will be healthy enough to play in Week 10 as the 49ers return from their bye. And the offense, though it has had success regardless of injuries in recent weeks, will also benefit from the return of Deebo Samuel, Elijah Mitchell, and Kyle Juszczyk. The outlook for San Francisco is overwhelmingly positive if the team can just stay healthy, and that’s priced into the futures market. The 49ers aren’t even a game above .500 and still have better odds to make the postseason than every NFC team outside of the Eagles, Vikings, and Cowboys.
9. Seattle Seahawks (6-3 | last week: 9)
Even more than the Giants or Jets, the Seahawks are the NFL’s most surprising team at the halfway mark—and they made the biggest jump in our rankings since the preseason, from no. 30 all the way into the top 10. Only the Falcons and Texans had lower preseason win totals than the Seahawks at 5.5, and now they’ve already cleared that mark. Geno Smith narrowly beat out Drew Lock in one of the saddest quarterback competitions we at The Ringer have ever seen and is now the eighth-ranked QB in EPA per dropback and the favorite to win Comeback Player of the Year. The defense lost Jamal Adams for the season in Week 1, yet ranks seventh in defensive success rate. The competition for Coach of the Year is hotly contested, with Nick Sirianni currently favored at -125, but Pete Carroll is putting on an absolute master class in Seattle right now.
10. Cincinnati Bengals (5-4 | last week: 10)
Desperate to forget an embarrassing loss to the Browns on Monday Night Football the week prior, Joe Mixon and the Bengals set proverbial fire to the Panthers on Sunday. Mixon scored five touchdowns in a dominant 42-21 win over Carolina, helping the Bengals clear the .500 mark ahead of the team’s Week 10 bye. The road ahead, however, leaves no room for error if Cincinnati is going to make the postseason.
FanDuel currently prices the Bengals at -122 to make the playoffs despite a tough slate of opponents to close out the season. Cincinnati’s remaining schedule is one of the hardest in the NFL, with games against the Titans, Chiefs, Bills, and Ravens in the next two months.
11. Los Angeles Chargers (5-3 | last week: 11)
The Chargers were no. 6 in our preseason rankings, but they aren’t a top-10 team on this list now because of failures on both sides of the ball—notably an ineffective early-down offense and a run defense that is softer than room-temp butter. Los Angeles ranks 21st in offensive success rate on first and second downs, which leaves Justin Herbert in obvious passing situations and forced to play hero ball on third and fourth downs to sustain drives. Defensively, the Bolts are 28th in points allowed per game and yards allowed per play in large part because offenses are just having their way with them on the ground. No other defense in the NFL is allowing a higher yards-per-carry average (5.7) than the Chargers entering Week 10.
12. New York Giants (6-2, last week: 12)
Losing to Seattle ahead of their Week 9 bye stings, but the Giants are still 6-2 with one of the easiest remaining schedules in the NFL. They’ll also have the edge in rest when they host the hapless Texans in Week 10 as a 6.5-point favorite, according to FanDuel, and another home game where they again should be favored against the Lions the subsequent week. Save for an unprecedented collapse or significant injuries, the Giants will be a playoff team—something we never thought we’d say when we slotted them at no. 27 in our preseason rankings.
13. New York Jets (6-3 | last week: 16)
Zach Wilson completed 18 of 25 passes for 154 yards and a touchdown in the Jets’ 20-17 win over the Bills and, more importantly, didn’t make any major mistakes. Right now, Robert Saleh simply needs Wilson to manage the offense, because Saleh’s defense will keep the Jets in most games this season. Outstanding performances from rookie cornerback Sauce Gardner and defensive tackle Quinnen Williams are the real reason the Jets have climbed 15 spots since our preseason rankings.
14. Tennessee Titans (5-3 | last week: 13)
Tip your proverbial cap to Derrick Henry and Mike Vrabel. Rookie QB Malik Willis completed 11 passes for 135 yards and a pick in the last two weeks, and the Titans still beat the Texans and nearly beat the Chiefs. On Sunday night, the Titans held Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs to just 17 points in regulation and narrowly lost the game in overtime as a 14.5-point road underdog. Despite the loss, Tennessee is a runaway favorite to win the AFC South (-290) and should be hosting a playoff game in January, especially if starting QB Ryan Tannehill is able to return healthy sooner rather than later.
On the Bubble
15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5 | last week: 17)
Tampa Bay is extremely fortunate to play in one of the worst divisions in football. Despite a sluggish 4-5 start, the Buccaneers are still the NFC South leader entering Week 10 and -250 to make the playoffs. That’s a steep drop-off from their preseason odds (-750). The offense is still hamstrung by an inefficient rushing attack, but Tom Brady and the defense are both reasons for optimism as the Bucs enter the second half of the season with one of the easiest remaining schedules.
16. Denver Broncos (3-5 | last week: 14)
The Broncos offense, despite the significant investment in Russell Wilson, is just disastrous across the board. The Broncos ranked 27th or worse in EPA per play on early downs, third-down conversion rate, and red zone touchdown percentage in weeks 1-8. Down lead back Javonte Williams for the season with an ACL injury, the Broncos are struggling to run the ball efficiently and have been constantly forced into third-and-long situations—their average distance to the first-down marker on third downs this season is 7.7 yards, the second-highest average in the NFL ahead of Week 10. Such inefficiency on offense has throttled the team’s odds to make the postseason; they’ve gone from -146 in the preseason to +770 after Week 9’s Sunday games. Wilson has to earn his hefty game check by converting on a higher percentage of money downs for the Broncos to overcome a slow start (and a difficult remaining schedule).
17. New England Patriots (5-4 | last week: 15)
The Patriots’ second-half outlook isn’t pretty. We know how New England wants to play: with strong, sound defense and a risk-averse offense that limits Mac Jones’s downfield throws. Jones is the lowest-ranked quarterback in EPA per dropback and the second-lowest in EPA per attempt on passes thrown at or beyond the first-down marker. Bill Belichick and Co. will have to overcome a lot to make the postseason as they embark on the hardest remaining schedule, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index.
18. Cleveland Browns (3-5 | last week: 21)
Despite a defense that’s tied for 28th in points allowed, only one of the Browns’ five losses this season has been by more than three points. That tells me this is a competitive team that has been kept afloat by Nick Chubb, who is breaking through tackles and busting explosive runs better than any other back in the league, and Jacoby Brissett, who has three more games as the starter before Deshaun Watson returns from suspension. Keeping the gas pedal down offensively through the second half of the season will be paramount for any chance of a postseason run for the Browns, as they face the third-hardest remaining schedule, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index.
19. Atlanta Falcons (4-5, last week: 20)
Don’t count the Falcons out yet. Even though Atlanta fell to second in the division behind the Bucs after losing to the Chargers on Sunday, the Falcons are still a contender in the NFC South and are +235 to make the postseason—a significant improvement from their preseason odds of +790. They very quietly have one of the top offenses in the NFL and a rushing attack that ranks top five in EPA per rush and yards before first contact per attempt.
20. Green Bay Packers (3-6 | last week: 18)
The defense has underwhelmed, the offensive line has battled injuries, and the receiving corps is injury-plagued and talent-bereft. But none of that is a bigger driver for the Packers’ poor start to the season than Aaron Rodgers. Only seven quarterbacks have a lower EPA per dropback than Rodgers entering Week 10: Carson Wentz, Kenny Pickett, Davis Mills, Baker Mayfield, Zach Wilson, and Mac Jones. The same guy who said Packers players making mistakes should be benched threw three interceptions inside the opponent’s 25-yard line and led an offense that scored nine points against statistically the worst defense in the NFL. The straits are dire for a Green Bay team currently +470 to make the playoffs in 2022 and on the hook for more than $100 million to Rodgers over the next four seasons.
21. Los Angeles Rams (3-5 | last week: 19)
The reigning Super Bowl champions are in a tight race with the Packers for most disappointing NFL team at midseason. The Rams were a top-five team on this list and tied for second for highest projected win total before Week 1. They’re now +215 to make the playoffs with no end to the disappointment in sight.
22. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6 | last week: 28)
The Jaguars are better than their record suggests. Trevor Lawrence is the seventh-ranked quarterback in EPA per dropback and leads an offense that ranks sixth in success rate. The defense has been a bigger letdown due in large part to injuries in the secondary, and they’ve allowed 20 or more points in five of their past six games. It’s hard to imagine Lawrence and Co. are capable of rallying to make the playoffs after a 3-6 start, but the steps forward that he and the offense have made under Doug Pederson create a positive 2023 outlook.
23. Arizona Cardinals (3-6, last week: 22)
Kliff Kingsbury fell to 27-30-1 as an NFL head coach after losing to the Seahawks as a two-point favorite at home. His home record dropped to 10-18-1; only the Lions, Panthers, Jaguars, Commanders, and Texans have fewer home wins since 2019. The Cardinals offense has never ranked top-10 in EPA per play in a single season since Kingsbury took over, and the team ranks just 20th in the statistic entering Week 10. QB Kyler Murray isn’t absolved from blame, but Arizona doesn’t have a realistic out in his contract through the 2028 season. The Cardinals front office will need to leave no stone unturned in their pursuit of creating a top-flight offense with their $230 million quarterback, and that may have to include moving on from Kingsbury despite signing him to a six-year contract extension this offseason.
24. Washington Commanders (4-5 | last week: 23)
The Commanders used an image of Taylor Heinicke to advertise season tickets for the 2023 season, and “Heinicke” chants broke out at FedEx Field on Sunday after he completed a deep touchdown pass to Curtis Samuel in triple coverage (quadruple if you count the referee):
Heinicke later threw an ugly interception to Harrison Smith that ultimately cost Washington the game, of course. The backup QB is a fan favorite and seems to be an upgrade over starter Carson Wentz, but ultimately isn’t the future star at the position the Commanders desperately need to right the ship.
Long-Shot Playoff Hopefuls
25. New Orleans Saints (3-6 | last week: 24)
The Saints’ chances of making the postseason are slim, and their path forward, in 2022 and beyond, isn’t pretty. They gave up a 2023 first-rounder to eventually draft WR Chris Olave in April, and they rank 32nd in projected cap space next offseason—at minus-$62 million. Olave has been sensational as a rookie, but he can’t also play quarterback or rush the passer. General manager Mickey Loomis might have to finally commit to a rebuild, offload some bloated contacts, and reset the roster to get the Saints back on track.
26. Chicago Bears (3-6 | last week: 26)
The good news for the Bears is that Justin Fields continues to look better every week, and the offense is finally catering to his strengths with an increased number of designed runs. His 178 rushing yards on Sunday was the most by a quarterback in a regular-season game in the Super Bowl era. More good news is that losing in Week 9 only benefits where the rebuilding Bears will pick in the 2023 NFL draft, and they are still projected to have $45 million more cap space in 2023 than any other team. No one should bet Chicago at +1550 to make the playoffs this season, but signs continue to point to a significant turnaround next season.
27. Las Vegas Raiders (2-6 | last week: 25)
The Raiders are now 0-5 in one-score games and have lost three games in which they’ve led by at least 17 points this season. Such tragedy is a direct reflection of Josh McDaniels and his coaching staff. Las Vegas is losing the second-half adjustment battle every week and failing to close out games because of it. McDaniels’s offense drops from 14th to 25th in success rate from the first to the second half. That, combined with one of the NFL’s worst defenses, is a recipe for disaster.
28. Indianapolis Colts (3-5-1, last week: 27)
Heads had to roll after what Colts fans witnessed on Sunday:
Indeed, team owner Jim Irsay announced Monday that he had fired head coach Frank Reich following a 26-3 loss to the Patriots in which quarterback Sam Ehlinger completed 15 of 29 passes for 103 yards, took nine sacks, and threw a pick-six. Reich’s firing was just the latest in a series of major in-season moves, from benching veteran Matt Ryan for Ehlinger two weeks ago to firing offensive coordinator Marcus Brady after Week 8. Irsay was so dissatisfied with Reich and the coaching staff that he named Jeff Saturday the interim head coach, marking the first time in NFL history that a person was named a head coach without any college or NFL coaching experience.
29. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-6 | last week: 29)
Pittsburgh is losing games at a rate we’ve never seen from a Mike Tomlin–led team because the defense is no longer a juggernaut and the offense is among the worst in the NFL. The Steelers rank 31st in EPA per offensive drive and last in offensive points per game since Kenny Pickett first started taking snaps in Week 4, and since he took over for Mitchell Trubisky, Pickett ranks 26th among 27 quarterbacks in EPA per dropback. The offense is hamstrung by poor blocking up front, running back Najee Harris is struggling to gain yards over expected, and the rookie quarterback is unable to elevate the offense in obvious passing situations.
All of that isn’t to say the Steelers need to give up on Pickett or that he’s a bust. He’s faced some of the NFL’s best defenses, suffered a concussion, and can’t also play offensive line and running back. Offensive coordinator Matt Canada needs to adjust his play calling to Pickett’s strengths and lean on a play-action passing game to take advantage of Pickett’s mobility and short-to-intermediate accuracy on quick throws.
Bottom of the Barrel
30. Detroit Lions (2-6 | last week: 31)
Beating Green Bay at home on Sunday won’t save this season for the Lions, but the win does bode well for head coach Dan Campbell’s future in Detroit. Campbell was adamant that a “change needed to be made” last week when he fired DBs coach Aubrey Pleasant, and his team produced immediate results. The Lions allowed 24 or more points in every game before Week 9, and on Sunday played their best defense of the season—intercepting Aaron Rodgers three times and holding the Packers to just nine points.
31. Carolina Panthers (2-7 | last week: 30)
The Bengals scored three more points (35) than the Panthers had yards (32) in the first half of their blowout win on Sunday. QB P.J. Walker completed three passes for 9 yards and threw two picks before he was benched for Baker Mayfield. Carolina’s Week 9 blunder was a good reminder that the team still has one of the worst quarterback situations in the league, if not the worst, and should be looking into QB draft evaluation sooner rather than later.
32. Houston Texans (1-6-1 | last week: 32)
Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III has the edge over Texans RB Dameon Pierce in the race for Offensive Rookie of the Year—in part because Walker is making his team a postseason contender while Pierce is simply the brightest spot on the worst team in the NFL. But here’s the case for Pierce, a fourth-rounder out of Florida: He ranks sixth in yards after contact per attempt (3.80) and is third in forced missed tackles (50), according to PFF. Walker, meanwhile, ranks 11th and seventh in those categories. Championing Pierce over Walker for OROY is about as positive as you can get as a Texans fan right now.
