The Normal Laws of Quarterbacking Don’t Apply to Joe Burrow
LSU is undefeated because of the play of its breakout senior QB. Burrow’s success defies convention—but then again, so does everything about his meteoric rise to this point.
I keep waiting for Joe Burrow to miss. He keeps hitting.
Every time the LSU senior quarterback drops back and throws deep toward a receiver in one-on-one coverage, I think it’s a 50-50 ball. Maybe Burrow’s target will come down with a contested catch; maybe the defender will get a hand on it or pick it off. Time and again, though, the ball settles calmly into the outstretched arms of the intended receiver. Burrow is college football’s needle-threader extraordinaire, somehow achieving optimal ball placement on every pass. I am thrilled and mystified by how this happens—but Burrow keeps hitting.
Some star quarterbacks play in brilliantly designed offenses that leave secondaries baffled and receivers wide open. That’s not the case at LSU. The Tigers’ head coach is Ed Orgeron, a longtime defensive line assistant more famous for his enthusiasm, his Hummer commercial, and his voice that sounds like Tom Waits than he is for any innovative schemes. Their offensive coordinator is Steve Ensminger, a quarterback for LSU in the 1970s who hadn’t held a full-time coordinator job before this one since working at Clemson in 1998. That LSU adopted a spread offense this season, a tactic installed by many other programs about a decade ago, is considered revolutionary for the Tigers. A lot of credit has been given to 30-year-old passing game coordinator Joe Brady for the group’s marked improvement. But regardless of what Brady has done, LSU isn’t running the Air Raid—and yet Burrow keeps hitting.
Some star quarterbacks throw passes to elite wide receivers who get open regardless of what the defense presents, thanks to unreal athleticism and perfect technique. That’s not the case at LSU. Junior Justin Jefferson has increased his NFL stock of late, but still isn’t considered a top-five receiver in the 2020 draft class. Sophomore Ja’Marr Chase is also expected to get drafted one day, but similarly isn’t pegged as a first-round talent. They’re good wideouts, but not Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry. LSU finished 96th in catch percentage last season, with Burrow’s targets dropping 15.7 percent of catchable passes. It rarely seems like LSU’s receivers create massive separation—and yet Burrow keeps hitting.
Some star quarterbacks are athletic freaks with rocket arms who launch the ball 70 yards downfield and fire compact-spiral missiles. Burrow is a fine athlete, but he’s a coach’s son—his father, Jim Burrow, was the defensive coordinator at Ohio University from 2005 until last year, when he retired so he could watch Joe’s senior season. If you’ve ever played sports against a coach’s son, you know their games typically aren’t built on mind-blowing athleticism as much as on-field savvy and well-practiced finesse. Burrow doesn’t have the greatest scrambling ability or strongest arm in his class—but he keeps on hitting.
Entering Saturday’s game against undefeated Alabama, Burrow is completing 78.8 percent of his passes. 78.8! That’s higher than any single-season completion percentage in Division I history, Division II history, Division III history, and NFL history. It’s even higher than the best completion percentage in CFL history, and everyone completes 70 percent of their passes in the CFL. The previous FBS record is held by Colt McCoy, who completed 76.7 percent of his passes at Texas in 2008. Nobody else has surpassed 75 percent. Burrow is 2 percentage points better than the guy who was 2 percentage points better than everybody else. Often, a high completion percentage indicates that a player prefers checkdowns to high-difficulty passes; recent NFL completion percentage leaders include Sam Bradford and Kirk Cousins. But look at those four throws embedded above. Burrow isn’t playing it safe, and yet he keeps hitting.
Burrow’s play this season has LSU sitting at 8-0 and ranked no. 2 in the College Football Playoff rankings. The Tigers have historically been inept on offense, contending in the SEC in spite of antiquated, underachieving units on that side of the ball. Just two years ago, LSU was 76th in scoring offense (27.2 points per game). This year, it ranks fourth (46.8 ppg). It won a 45-38 shootout at Texas on September 7, hung 42 points on Florida on October 12, and scored 23 points against Auburn on October 26. Alabama will present a test unlike any other, but if the Tigers leave Bryant-Denny Stadium with a win, they’ll be in line to claim their first-ever playoff berth.
I’ve learned to stop doubting Burrow. Every pass he throws looks like a coin flip, but every time that coin comes up heads. Either he’s the luckiest man alive, or his coin is built differently than anyone else’s.
Normally, the story of a breakout transfer quarterback is one of immediate redemption: A talented player in a bad situation goes to a new program and emerges as a superstar virtually overnight. Justin Fields was stuck behind Jake Fromm on Georgia’s depth chart in 2018; he left for Ohio State and is suddenly piloting the top team in the nation, putting up better numbers than Fromm ever has. Jalen Hurts was usurped as Alabama’s starter by national title game sensation Tua Tagovailoa; Hurts went to Oklahoma is now rewriting the college football record books.
Burrow doesn’t fit that narrative. He wasn’t an elite prospect unable to find playing time at his first school, nor was he an instant-impact player upon arriving at LSU in 2018. Some people apparently don’t realize that Burrow ever transferred at all—earlier this year, Colin Cowherd conducted an entire interview with Ohio State coach turned Fox analyst Urban Meyer without realizing that Meyer had previously coached Burrow on the Buckeyes. (Cowherd: “How’d he get out of Ohio?” Meyer: “Well, he played for us for three years.”) Part of this may stem from Burrow not being a five-star prospect like Fields was; he was a respectable four-star, squeaking into the ESPN300 rankings as the 298th-best recruit in the class of 2015.
When Burrow arrived in Columbus, the Buckeyes had one of the most unusual quarterback situations of all time, with three guys ahead of him: national championship hero Cardale Jones, All Big-Ten passer J.T. Barrett, and QB turned receiver Braxton Miller. There were no plans to use Burrow, who became the subject of relentless ragging. Because Barrett’s first name is really Joe, Ohio State players and coaches delighted in calling Burrow by incorrect names—Barrett told local reporters that some people called him John, others called him Jimmy, and the team’s strength coach called him Jimmy Johns. “I wonder what he puts on his paper in class?” Barrett asked. In a recent Yahoo article, Jones recounted how “it wasn’t uncommon for Burrow to answer something in a meeting and for him to cut him off: ‘Hey John, shut the fuck up.’” This trend extended beyond Burrow’s teammates. According to The Athletic, Meyer repeatedly told Burrow that he was a “Division III quarterback” and that he “throws like a girl.”
So Burrow was fourth on the depth chart … and then wasn’t really considered for the starting job even after Jones, Barrett, and Miller all left. Dwayne Haskins, now an NFL starter, entered the program before the 2016 season. Tate Martell, a five-star recruit, came to Columbus in 2017. Burrow was never going to get his chance at Ohio State, so he went to LSU in 2018.
Even after transferring, Burrow looked just OK. In his first five games with the Tigers last season, Burrow completed 53.4 percent of his passes with six touchdowns and no interceptions. Then the SEC schedule began in earnest, and things got rough. In matchups with Florida, Georgia, Mississippi State, and Alabama, Burrow combined for zero touchdowns and four picks. He closed strong, going 81-of-121 passing with 10 touchdowns and just one interception over the team’s final four games.
Burrow’s 2019 season represents a significant improvement over even his best stretch last year. If we were to extrapolate his fiery finish to 2018 over a 13-game season, Burrow would have a completion percentage of 66.9 and 32.5 touchdowns. Through eight games this year, he’s completing almost 80 percent of his passes and has broken the LSU single-season record by throwing for 30 touchdowns. In the second half of 2018, he went from average to good. Now, he’s gone from good to supernova.
Talk of Burrow going no. 1 in the 2020 NFL draft is happening: Pro Football Focus gave Burrow the highest grade it’s ever given a quarterback through seven weeks of a college season, and he’s overtaken Tua Tagovailoa on some mock draft boards. There’s Heisman Trophy hype, too, as Burrow is the betting favorite to win the award. If he beats Alabama this weekend, Burrow’s taking home the hardware seems like a lock.
Burrow must have a way of seeing something the rest of the world doesn’t. He looked at LSU and saw the potential for a high-powered offense where there’s never been one. He looks at a blanketed receiver and sees the chance to make a perfect pass. He looks at his skill set and sees a superstar where others see a Jimmy John. Where everyone else sees a 50-50 ball, he sees an opportunity to keep putting himself—and the ball—in the perfect spot. I don’t know how he does it, but Joe Burrow keeps hitting.