It’s Tanking Season, and Zion Williamson Is Worth Tanking For
The Duke Blue Devil is the best college prospect since Anthony Davis, and his imminent arrival in the NBA is forcing teams from Los Angeles to New Orleans and beyond to take a long, hard look at their rosters, and do some pretty wild things as we head down the stretch
With just under a month left in the regular season, a handful of fan bases are dreaming of a run to the NBA Finals. It’s a nice time of year to cheer for the Warriors, Raptors, Sixers, Bucks, Celtics, Nuggets, and Rockets. But for most everyone else, it’s time to throw some salt over the shoulder, pull out the rabbit’s foot, and hope for good luck on May 14. That’s the date of the NBA draft lottery, and it’s shaping up to be one of the most important nights in recent league history. On that night, a bunch of lottery balls will determine the destiny of Zion Williamson, the Duke phenom whose closest comp is an asteroid hurtling toward Earth.
If you watched Williamson average 27 points on 33-for-43 shooting with 10 rebounds, 2.3 steals, and 1.3 blocks per game over Duke’s three-game ACC tournament title run, you’re a believer. Zion is 6-foot-7 and 285 pounds of thicc muscle with the skills to play an assortment of roles at the next level. Of all his unreal athletic displays over the past few days, his best play might’ve been a rocket bounce pass on the break to point guard Tre Jones in the ACC championship game.
There are few players who enter the league with a chance to change the trajectory of an entire franchise. Williamson is one of them. He’s the most talented projected first pick since Anthony Davis in 2012. And in some ways, Williamson’s destiny is linked to Davis, who will likely be on the move this offseason after requesting a trade in January from a team that’s already eyeing their next savior.
This will be a top-heavy draft class because of Zion. After him, it’s a mixed bag: Duke forward R.J. Barrett and Murray State guard Ja Morant have star potential but also come with worrisome flaws, like Barrett’s lack of feel for the game and Morant’s jumper. The draft is filled with good-not-great prospects like Vanderbilt guard Darius Garland, underwhelming elite high school recruits like Duke forward Cam Reddish, projected role players like Tennessee forward Grant Williams, and wild cards like Oregon center Bol Bol. Some players will blossom into stardom, as they always do—even the 2013 draft class, which was supposed to be historically bad, brought Giannis Antetokounmpo and Rudy Gobert into the NBA. Executives around the league agree that this draft plateaus around the fourth or fifth pick into the middle or late first round, but there is no consensus on the players that come after Williamson; one team’s fifth-ranked prospect might be 25th on another team’s board.
Williamson is on a draft board of one, though. And over the next few weeks teams might do some pretty daft things to increase their odds of winning the lottery. Whichever team gets the no. 1 pick will find itself with a whole new world of possibilities when it wakes up on May 15. Williamson could be a foundational piece, or, perhaps, the best trade chip for Davis. The teams that don’t get him will face a draft class full of question marks.
Williamson’s emergence signals a possible turning of the page in basketball. Zion is the future. Anthony Davis’s stagnant status in New Orleans represents the strange present, and with the Lakers missing the playoffs, we have to seriously consider for the first time whether LeBron James is taking his first steps into the past. Whatever happens this offseason with these three players—where Zion gets drafted, where Davis gets traded, and who LeBron teams up with—will shape the league for years to come.
If the Basketball Hall of Fame had a room dedicated to the greatest tanking performances in NBA history, they would play the final moments of Saturday night’s Suns-Pelicans game on a loop. Whether intentional or not, New Orleans pulled off a feat that would make Sam Hinkie weep with pride, though even the father of the Process couldn’t dream of something so magnificent.
With 7.7 seconds remaining in overtime, the Pelicans led 136-133 and had possession of the ball. They managed to lose by two. Pelicans guard Elfrid Payton couldn’t inbound the ball, resulting in a five-second violation. Suns wing Josh Jackson hit a 3 to tie the game. New Orleans play-by-play announcer Joel Meyers comically pleaded for the Pelicans to foul, articulating the sentiment Pelicans assistant coach Darren Erman was clearly trying to get across from the sideline as Jackson shot the ball. “Gotta foul! Why didn’t they foul?” Meyers shouted. “Am I missing something here? What a gift.”
An even better gift came seconds later when Pelicans head coach Alvin Gentry signaled to call a timeout, but the team had none. The Pelicans were penalized with a technical foul and a turnover for the excess timeout, putting the Suns at the line for free throws. A couple of makes later, the Suns led 138-136. Buzzer. “What a way to lose,” Meyers grumbled. “Just when you thought you’d seen everything in an NBA game, they came up with a new one.”
This wasn’t a Mark Madsen tanking situation, like the time when he launched 3 after 3 at the end of Minnesota’s 2005-06 season in a double-overtime loss to the Grizzlies. Then-Timberwolves coach Dwane Casey said after the game that it was supposed to be a fun moment for the players, who had been coping with a long, tough season. “The guys were having fun with it. For what we’ve been through this season, I thought the guys deserved it,” Casey said. “I hope what we did didn’t make a mockery of the game.” On Saturday, there was nothing “fun” for the Pelicans’ players: They simply botched the inbound, and then failed to foul. Bad teams do bad things, and that was as bad as it gets.
The New Orleans front office might feel differently. Davis rightfully remains on a severe minutes restriction, and Gentry said last week the Pelicans will be “overly cautious” with their injured starters, Jrue Holiday (lower abdominal strain) and E’Twaun Moore (left quad contusion). Now this echoes one of the greatest tanking seasons ever when the Celtics and Bucks sat all their best players over the final week of the 2006-07 season to increase their odds of drafting Greg Oden or Kevin Durant. Teams rest good players and play bad lineups; and honestly, it’s for the best. Just look at the Pelicans: They have the eighth-worst record, which gives them a 26.3 percent chance at a top-four pick, but they’re on shaky ground. They’re only one game ahead of the Wizards (ninth-worst, 20.3 percent odds) and one game behind the Grizzlies (sixth-worst, 37.2 percent odds). A couple of wins or losses could drastically change their chances in either direction.
The NBA changed the lottery odds for this season to minimize teams’ incentive to completely pull the plug on a season—or, as the league put it last summer: “to improve the competitive incentives for our teams.” Now, the teams with the three worst records will have 14 percent odds at winning the lottery, compared to 25 percent for the worst record in past years. To some extent, the change has worked. Of the five worst teams, only the Knicks are an utter embarrassment—even after Mario Hezonja’s heroics on Sunday, they still have the league’s worst record by 2.5 games over the Suns. Tanking normally doesn’t start in earnest at this point in the season. Right now, the Hawks and Suns might be competitive on a night-to-night basis, but there’s still time to totally capitulate. The final month of the season will be the truest test for the new lottery rules.
I think the changes were a half-measure. The three worst records have “equal odds,” but there are still benefits to being at the very bottom. The team with the worst record can receive, at worst, the fifth pick. The third-worst team can end up with the seventh pick. Teams with the fifth- to ninth-worst records have much better odds at getting a top-four pick than they did in past years. Teams toward the back end of the lottery in years past didn’t have as much reason to climb to the middle as they do now. The NBA did indeed disincentivize teams from being Tier 1 Tankers like the Process Sixers; if that was the league’s only goal, then it looks like it’s mission accomplished. But there is still plenty of reason to be bad when the odds are so much higher for teams that will be in the 30-win range, like the Pelicans. That’s why New Orleans should limit Davis’s playing time and should shut down injured starters to prioritize higher lottery odds over a hopeless playoff push. And the NBA should get out of the Pelicans’ way. Technically, resting healthy players is illegal, but it’s impossible to properly enforce. Who’s to decide whether Jrue Holiday can play or not? Why do the Pelicans need to play Davis, but the Rockets can send Carmelo Anthony home for months and the Cavaliers can do the same with J.R. Smith? Where do you draw the line? What the hell is “load management” anyway? If the league doesn’t want teams doing what’s best for their franchise under the current guidelines, they should change the rules to completely prevent that behavior with a new draft system. There have been plenty of suggestions—from Mike Zarren’s wheel to Mark Cuban’s suggestion to abolish the draft altogether. More collaborative work must be done, but the dialogue must be open and transparent to understand what’s truly best for the league, the teams, and the fans.
The future of the New Orleans Pelicans is hanging in the balance. Landing a top pick would increase the odds of acquiring an elite player—either through the draft or in a trade—who would help the team win more games, and drive up fan interest. That’s why Saturday’s loss was so important, and why some fans view memes of Gentry driving a tank as a rallying cry, not a white flag. Pelicans fans get to bask in Julius Randle’s development, pray for a big summer haul in return for Anthony Davis, and hope to win the Zion Williamson sweepstakes. Unless the NBA is truly serious about addressing tanking by overhauling lottery reform, higher draft odds will continue to be something fans root for. Is that really such a bad thing?
Remarkably, the Lakers are finding themselves in a similar situation to New Orleans, after failing to land Davis prior to the deadline. Somehow, after weeks of speculation, rumors, and sources saying all sorts of things, the Pelicans and Lakers are now both chasing a higher draft pick. Los Angeles is on pace to finish with the 12th-worst record in its 71-season history. Brandon Ingram and Lonzo Ball are out, and LeBron is on a minutes restriction. It’s only a matter of time until Luke Walton is fired, and Magic Johnson and Rob Pelinka will be under pressure to find the right coach and the right pieces to build around this generation’s best player.
The new lottery odds give the Lakers a shot at landing a top pick, which they could use to draft a prospect or try to package for Davis. They currently have the 10th-worst record, with just one more win than the Pelicans and Wizards, and a 13.9 percent chance of landing in the top four. With just a few more losses, they could slide into the eighth spot currently occupied by the Pelicans, and nearly double those odds to 26.3 percent. The sixth-worst record, which is currently owned by the Grizzlies—who are trying to win games to convey their pick to the Celtics—is not out of reach if they keep losing. On Sunday, the Lakers helped themselves by dropping a game to the Knicks in which James got his shot blocked by Hezonja in the closing seconds. Who knew the greatest player of his generation could also be the greatest tanker?
The Lakers are bad enough with LeBron; they’d be ungodly without him. The sixth-worst team will have 9 percent odds at winning the opportunity to draft Williamson with the first pick.
In a scenario where they land the no. 1 (or no. 2) pick, the Lakers would have an interesting dilemma on their hands. The cap hold for the selection would make it tough for the Lakers to create the $32.7 million in cap space needed to sign a player to a maximum contract (under the projected $109 million salary cap). To sign a player like Kawhi Leonard or Kevin Durant, they’d likely need to outright trade about $5 million in salary (either just Lonzo Ball, or the trio of Josh Hart, Moe Wagner, and Isaac Bonga) just to open the space. Even if the pick were no. 3 or no. 4, someone will have to go. It’s not the worst problem to have, but it would be a hurdle for their hopes of signing a star player that would require sacrifice.
Would the Lakers be the Distracted Boyfriend meme, and look away from Davis toward Williamson? Probably not: Davis is a future Hall of Famer in his prime, and the Lakers need another star to pair with James, immediately. But we still don’t know what New Orleans will ask for in return for Davis. Nor do we know how Brandon Ingram’s health will impact his trade value. Ingram recently underwent surgery to remove a blood clot in his arm and fix thoracic outlet syndrome, which was supposed to be the cause of the problem. Thankfully, Ingram is supposed to make a full recovery within a couple of months. But the injury is scary. Blood clots can be a recurrent problem that requires people to go on blood thinners. Ingram, logically, becomes more of a risk compared to other Pelicans targets such as Boston’s Jayson Tatum, who is healthier, a better scorer, and under his rookie contract for an extra season.
The Celtics also have valuable trade assets to include in a trade, including protected firsts from the Kings and Grizzlies. Landing the Zion pick could be what gives the Lakers an edge in any Davis discussions.
ESPN’s Jeff Van Gundy suggested that the Lakers should explore trading LeBron, especially if it means Kevin Durant or Kawhi Leonard would sign there. It’s obviously a highly unlikely scenario, but just the fact it’s being mentioned is truly unbelievable. Van Gundy’s underlying point was that everything should be on the table for the Lakers, but their options will largely depend on where their pick lands.
The fate of teams like the Grizzlies and Hornets could be riding on the remainder of the season. If Charlotte misses the postseason, perhaps Kemba Walker is more likely to leave—making him an option for the Lakers. If the Grizzlies win the lottery and pair Williamson with Jaren Jackson Jr., maybe they’re more likely to keep point guard Mike Conley Jr. Memphis seriously discussed sending Conley to the Jazz prior to the deadline, and those talks could pick back up in June, according to multiple front office executives. The Kings, who owe their pick to the Celtics, could also bolster Boston’s chances at Davis if they keep losing (the pick would go the Sixers if it’s no. 1). Only a couple of games separate teams in the lottery; we’ve entered the doldrums of the season, but the tanking race connects teams to the defining story lines of the summer.
The NBA might not appreciate tanking, and rooting for a team to lose is somewhat twisted, but that’s the reality of the league today when the destinies of franchise-changers like Williamson and Davis are at stake. The final month will determine whether teams are positioned to vault into contention or enter a perpetual state of mediocrity. The only certainty is that for the first time in LeBron’s career, it’s beneficial for his team to lose, because under the current NBA rules for teams without playoff hopes, losing is winning.