After Marc Gasol hit a clutch 3 that clinched the Grizzlies’ Saturday-night win over the Pacers, the center flexed and roared before bear-hugging Mike Conley Jr., who had leaped into his arms. The big Spaniard returned the love minutes later, planting a big smooch on Conley’s cheek during the point guard’s postgame interview. (Why? “Because I love him,” Gasol told reporters after the game.) It was the emotional lift both longtime Grizzlies stars needed. At home, in front of a FedEx Forum crowd standing in ovation, Gasol and Conley shared their mutual admiration of each other, of the team, and of the city for everyone to see. They know, as we all do, that there might not be many more opportunities to do so together in Memphis.
It was all hugs and kisses Saturday, but the sweetness of that night can’t overcome the bitterness of where the team stands. The Grizzlies are still losers of 25 of their past 33 games. Gasol, who turns 34 this week, has often looked his age. Conley, 31, is still very good but isn’t playing at the level where he can carry a franchise. Grizzlies owner Robert Pera recently notified the team’s two longest-tenured players that they could be dealt, as the team is looking to begin its rebuilding process around stellar rookie big man Jaren Jackson Jr., ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski first reported. With five more games, including only two at home, before the February 7 trade deadline, it’s time for Grizzlies fans to start cherishing every moment, if they aren’t already. It may not be long until it’s all gone.
So far, Gasol is generating more chatter on the market than Conley. The Kings and Pistons have expressed interest, according to multiple league sources. The Grizzlies are trying to make a deal including Chandler Parsons, who signed a four-year, $94.4 million contract with Memphis in 2016 and has managed to play only 73 games due to injuries. Gasol has a player option for next season worth $25.6 million, so including Parsons’s albatross contract will be complicated financially.
The Jazz inquired about Conley, according to The Athletic’s Tony Jones, but there are mostly crickets elsewhere. The majority of teams already have capable lead orchestrators, and the teams that do need a point guard may not want to add a player on the wrong side of 30 who will be worth $34.5 million in two years and is only one year removed from having surgery to repair a bone protrusion in his left heel. It’s unclear whether any teams that could use an upgrade at the position—like the Heat, Pacers, Pelicans, Pistons, Magic, Mavericks, and Timberwolves—will make an acceptable offer.
The Grizzlies already have the sixth-worst record in the NBA, and it’s unlikely they’ll rise any higher than fifth in the lottery standings given that the four worst teams in the league have essentially formed and colonized an island to themselves. Dealing one or both of their franchise icons would better assure that the Grizzlies retain a competitive place in the lottery odds, but it’s possible that the deadline will come and go without a trade. Both players have seen their value decline in the past year, and it’s evidenced by the lack of suitors clamoring for their talents. The best window to deal Conley was six months after he signed his five-year max contract—the same timing as the Clippers’ Blake Griffin deal. Gasol can still space the floor from 3 and make plays for teammates, but his defense has degraded. Once an All-NBA defender (and one-time Defensive Player of the Year), Gasol is now only a sometimes-serviceable defender who’s far removed from his prime and not worth his salary. The Grizzlies could’ve detonated the roster in 2016-17, but they passed on the opportunity to make a push for the playoffs, where they lost in a gutsy but ultimately unconvincing first-round series to the Spurs.
It’s hard to blame Memphis for retaining its core: The Grizzlies remain competitive, even today, when Conley and Gasol play. They outscore opponents by 2.5 points per 100 possessions when both are on the court—the equivalent of a 45-win team—but when just one or neither of them is in the game, Memphis gets outscored by 9.2 points per 100 possessions—the equivalent of a 20-win team. The Grizzlies aren’t bad because of their aging stars; they’re bad because of the decisions the front office has made in an effort to support them over the past decade.
Conley, drafted fourth in 2007, is one of the last two Grizzlies picks to receive a second contract from the team; the other is Darrell Arthur, who was selected 27th in 2008. Every other pick has either been let go in free agency (like O.J. Mayo, drafted third in 2008), traded (like Xavier Henry, drafted 12th in 2010), or waived (like Wade Baldwin, drafted 17th in 2016). The Grizzlies have nailed some acquisitions over the years, such as the 2009 trade for Zach Randolph and the 2010 signing of Tony Allen, and they’ve built some strong benches featuring veterans like Mike Miller. But long-term success is difficult to maintain without a steady influx of youth. Hitting on draft picks means building up a team’s infrastructure, providing cheap players who can round out a roster and, in a best-case scenario, raise its ceiling. The front office has missed its countless swings, which factored into the team’s downfall in seven straight postseasons.
Now, as the Grizzlies seem ready to give up the ghost, no mistake looms larger than Parsons. Despite his close relationship with owner Mark Cuban, the Mavericks refused to make him a max contract offer because of concerns about his health. Parsons had undergone “hybrid” microfracture procedures and surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his right knee in the two years ahead of his free agency, which probably should’ve been a red flag. But the Grizzlies—and the Blazers, for what it’s worth—made a max offer of $94.4 million anyway. By winning the Parsons sweepstakes, Memphis lost its future. Grizzlies general manager Chris Wallace said earlier this month that Parsons was “by far the best option at that time,” but sometimes the best option is to make no move at all, especially for a player with Parsons’s injury history. It’s not like Parsons was a superstar hampered by injury; he was a good player who showed occasional flashes of being something more. The Grizzlies could have resisted splurging for Parsons during the 2016 cap spike and instead remained financially flexible for other opportunities. Parsons’s signing brought undeniable risk, and the Grizzlies are paying for it—not only literally, but in the ways that it has hampered their ability to sustain success.
It was easy to see their current dilemma coming, especially during the 2016-17 season. I argued, at the time, that the Grizzlies should explore blowing up the roster. Memphis didn’t have its 2017 first-round pick, but Conley and Gasol were both firmly in their prime, and their respective trade value at the time reflected that. While there are legitimate concerns about rebuilding in what Pera called a “tough market,” it’s not like the franchise hadn’t done it before. The Grizzlies were the worst team in the NBA after the 2006-07 season; they did all they could to put themselves in pole position for the Greg Oden–Kevin Durant sweepstakes, but luck was not on their side. Instead, they landed Conley, who would go on to set countless franchise records and become the owner of the richest contract in NBA history at the time in 2016. The following season, the Grizzlies dealt Pau Gasol, who had three years left on his contract, and were ripped for making the deal. Even former owner Michael Heisley questioned whether the team got enough value. What the Grizzlies got was Marc Gasol, who Wallace said at the time was “one of the best young big men in Spain.” It took two unwatchable seasons, but Memphis found two players, acquired in consecutive years, that helped define the most memorable era in the franchise’s history.
The Grizzlies could’ve repeated history. They could have dealt the younger Gasol sooner than fans and the media would’ve liked, just as they did with the elder, but they didn’t. Maybe it wouldn’t have mattered. Conley’s Achilles acted up in 2017-18, and he missed 70 games, which was a blessing in disguise. The Grizzlies won only 22 games, and landed Jaren Jackson Jr. with the fourth pick in the 2018 draft. Jackson has the potential to become a Defensive Player of the Year candidate, and, with his athleticism, soft shooting touch, and skill attacking the basket, there’s a chance he’ll end up a star on offense too. Memphis didn’t need to blow it up to add a franchise-changer, and now, at this point, it’s too late for a forceful tear-down.
It may not even be advantageous to trade both anyway because Memphis needs to be careful about being too bad. The Grizzlies owe a first-round pick to the Celtics, which they sent in a 2015 trade for Jeff Green. (Gross! Trading a first for Green is what happens when you miss on your draft selections.) Their first-rounder is top-eight protected in 2019, and if the Grizzlies keep it now, the Celtics will receive their first in either 2020, when it’s top-six protected, or in 2021, when it becomes unprotected. Aside from Duke’s Zion Williamson, the 2019 draft is considered by scouts to be one of the weakest of the decade, but it’s likely the Grizzlies will retain their pick unless they start winning games. Nonetheless, the pick is a sunk cost, and Memphis is left with two unideal best-case scenarios:
- Convey the pick in 2019 or 2020 to Boston so the team regains the rights to its own first-rounder before it becomes unprotected in 2021
- Bottom out in 2019 and 2020 to retain the picks, and then hope to be competitive enough in the 2020-21 season so that the pick doesn’t have much value
I would push to trade Gasol so the Grizzlies can get younger, cost-effective assets back for him, hopefully with Parsons attached, and keep Conley, for now, unless there’s a strong enough offer on the table. They could always trade him in the future: Over the next two seasons, more teams in need of Conley could emerge. And if they keep him, his presence could help foster the development of Jackson and any other young players added in 2019 and 2020. By the 2020-21 season, when the pick becomes unprotected and Conley is in the final season of his contract, perhaps the Grizzlies and their maturing core will be ready to make another playoff push.
The Grizzlies have made a lot of mistakes over the years, and they arguably should have kissed goodbye to Conley and Gasol a whole lot sooner, but not all hope is lost. The hardest part of rebuilding is not knowing whether all the losing, the empty seats, and the frustration will ever lead to winning again. That’s what it took for the Grizzlies to get Conley and Gasol in the first place. The difference now is that Memphis does have a potential star waiting in the wings. Jackson could soon be the new face of the Grizzlies. Now it’s on ownership and the front office to do their jobs and build a new core—one worthy of the love that this bygone Grit and Grind era has received for the past decade.