After failing to secure any points in their first World Cup appearance in 2022, Qatar went through Asian qualifying to secure a place in the expanded 2026 field. 

They brought in Spanish manager Julen Lopetegui for this tournament. He won the Europa League at Sevilla and has also managed Real Madrid, Wolves, West Ham, and the Spanish national team. His tactics often feature slow buildup structures to funnel the ball into wide areas and set up crossing opportunities whenever possible. Qatar’s primary attacking chance creator is Al Sadd’s Akram Afif, who won the Golden Boot at the 2024 Asian Cup that Qatar won. 

Qatar was drawn into the weakest of the 12 groups according to the Opta Power Rankings, the Silver Bulletin projections, and my own ratings. But it’ll still be a big leap for them to compete at this level given how poorly they performed in 2022 at home. Transfermarkt squad value is one of the best proxies for national team quality, and Qatar’s entire squad is last in this tournament (and 91st in the world) at $19.93 million. 

Key player: Akram Afif (Al Sadd)

With just 185,000 people, Curacao is the smallest country to ever qualify for the tournament. Akron, Ohio, has more people. The national team arrived at its tournament training site on Florida Atlantic University’s campus in an old-school bus with no windows. 

Not only is Curacao the smallest nation to ever qualify, but their manager is making history too. Dick Advocaat, a former Dutch player and coach, will become the oldest man (78) to ever manage at a World Cup.

The road ahead looks bleak for this squad. Curacao had two pre–World Cup friendlies against teams in the 2026 field. They lost 5-1 to Australia in March and 4-1 to Scotland in May—though they led Scotland 1-0 late in the first half before a red card left them down a man. The biggest roadblock for Curacao is their brutal draw. Germany and Ecuador are both top-15 teams in my rankings, and Ivory Coast is a popular sleeper pick for this World Cup. 

Key player: Tahith Chong (Sheffield United) 

If a “group of death” is still possible in a watered-down tournament, then Iraq absolutely drew the short stick. There is one group with three top-15 teams in this ranking, and Iraq is the unlucky fourth in Group I. The Iraqis ended a 40-year drought by qualifying for this tournament, and they had to survive a grueling campaign to do it. Iraq played a total of 21 matches to reach this point. That included a two-legged win against United Arab Emirates in the Asian playoff final and a single game in Mexico against Bolivia in March. 

Aymen Hussein scored the winning goal against Bolivia, and he’s Iraq’s most reliable scorer. Hussein is second all time in goals scored for his country, and he led them in scoring at the 2023 Asian Cup until they lost to Jordan in the round of 16. 

Outside of Hussein, Iraq has limited attacking upside and will rely on an organized defense. But preventing goals will be a challenge in games against Erling Haaland, Kylian Mbappé, and Ousmane Dembélé, among others. 

Key player: Aymen Hussein (Al-Karma)
Bet: Iraq lowest-scoring team (+800)

No nation benefited more from World Cup expansion than New Zealand. Because Oceania is now granted a direct, guaranteed World Cup place in the new format, New Zealand is able to exploit a massive talent advantage over the rest of its confederation and should be a near shoo-in for future World Cup qualification. They beat Fiji 7-0 and New Caledonia 3-0 and became one of the first teams to book their place in the tournament in March 2025. 

But since qualifying, their results in friendly matches have not been particularly inspiring. They lost to Australia (twice), Poland, Ecuador, Colombia, and Finland. Their only positive results were a 1-1 draw with Norway and a win against non-qualifying Chile. In their two tune-up matches last week, New Zealand lost 4-0 to Haiti and were outshot 18-2 in a 1-0 loss to England. 

Even though they were placed in one of the weaker groups, with Belgium, Egypt, and Iran, the Kiwis are the clear fourth-place team in the group. Their task will be even more difficult since their star striker, Chris Wood, has barely played this year due to a knee injury.

Key player: Chris Wood (Nottingham Forest)

Haiti beat Curacao head-to-head in qualifying and then edged out Honduras and Costa Rica, two more established CONCACAF nations, en route to their first World Cup qualification since 1974. 

The additions of Jean-Ricner Bellegarde and Wilson Isidor—two French nationals of Haitian descent—dramatically improved the quality of this roster. Bellegarde was a Ligue 1 regular and has spent the past three years in central midfield for Wolves in the Premier League. Isidor scored six goals for Sunderland in the EPL this year.  

The Haitians open group play on Saturday against Scotland, and it is unquestionably their most important game. Given that they’ll likely lose to Brazil and Morocco, two top-15 teams in these rankings, the game against Scotland is a must-win. Three points (and a not terrible goal difference) will likely be enough to qualify in this expanded format. The results from their tune-up friendlies have also been encouraging, as Haiti beat New Zealand 4-0 and lost 2-1 to Peru in Florida. 

Key player: Wilson Isidor (Sunderland)

South Africa held off a late charge from Nigeria in their World Cup qualifying group, but their performances since then have not inspired a ton of confidence. They drew one match and lost another against Panama, failed to score against Nicaragua, and lost 2-1 to Cameroon.

Still, they finished top five in xG allowed during qualifying in Africa as a defense-first team. The problem is that they’ll probably need to win a game to advance out of a manageable Group A, and they’ll be clear underdogs in all three contests given that they were 12th in xG created in qualifying. 

Key player: Ronwen Williams (Mamelodi Sundowns)

Cape Verde clinched their first World Cup spot by winning their qualifying group just ahead of Cameroon, a traditional African heavyweight. The country consists of 10 islands off the coast of West Africa, and until Curacao’s qualification, it was the smallest nation to ever reach the World Cup. 

Given the struggles of Saudi Arabia (another Group H competitor) in recent months, it’s not out of the question for Cape Verde to win a game and find themselves in the knockout stage as a third-place finisher. 

Key player: Dailon Livramento (Hellas Verona)

Jordan established itself as a legitimate contender in Asia when it made a deep run in the Asian Cup in 2024. In that tournament, Jordan beat both Iraq and South Korea in the knockout stage before conceding three penalties in a 3-1 loss to Qatar in the final. Between qualifying and the Asian Cup, Jordan has had four competitive games against South Korea since December 2023. The Jordanians won one, drew two, and lost the fourth. That they went toe-to-toe with one of the best teams in Asia suggests they won’t be totally overmatched in this tournament, but they remain the clear fourth-best team in their group. Just look at the Transfermarkt squad values to see the gap in talent:

• Argentina: $904 million
• Algeria: $297 million
• Austria: $279 million
• Jordan: $23 million

Key player: Mousa Al-Taamari (Stade Rennais)

Uzbekistan is the fourth and final World Cup debutant on this list, and it should feel confident after its competitive friendly against the Netherlands on Monday, even though it lost the match deep into stoppage time. It was a considerably better performance than the 2-0 loss to Canada in its first tune-up match.

The schedule makers did Uzbekistan zero favors with this draw against two elite teams in Portugal and Colombia. They’re also forced to play their opening match in the high-elevation Mexico City against Colombia, which will only add to the difficulty, as the Colombians are quite experienced playing at elevation after their CONMEBOL qualifiers. Add in a game in the Miami heat and humidity, and no team got more “burdened” by the schedulers. 

Key player: Abdukodir Khusanov (Manchester City)

Saudi Arabia notched one of the most shocking upsets in sports history when it opened the 2022 World Cup with a 2-1 win over Argentina. Hervé Renard’s legendary halftime speech will ring throughout Saudi Arabia forever, even if the soccer federation fired Renard in April and he won’t be managing them this summer.

As a result of the change, it’s not immediately obvious what Saudi Arabia will look like tactically. At the Gold Cup last summer, they were unbelievably defensive. After matches against Haiti, the USMNT, and Trinidad and Tobago, they advanced out of their group in second place, and then Mexico beat them comfortably in the quarterfinal. The Saudis barely laid a glove on Mexico and the USMNT in those matches.

Key player: Salem Al-Dawsari (Al-Hilal)
Bet: Saudi Arabia to finish last in Group H (+125)

Tunisia didn’t concede a single goal during qualifying. Ten matches. Twenty-two goals for. Zero against. Their achievement isn’t totally backed up by the underlying stats, as Tunisia wasn’t even ranked inside the top five in African qualifying in xG allowed per match, but it’s still impressive.

Tunisia is unquestionably a defense-first side, and that could be a significant benefit to them in this group. The Dutch enter this tournament with defensive questions, Japan plays an über-aggressive style, and Sweden’s defense has had issues throughout all of qualifying. All Tunisia has to do is eke out a single goal, and they can win a match.

Tunisia won’t be favored in any of their games, but there’s a whiff of chaos emerging from Group F. 

Key player: Hannibal Mejbri (Burnley)

When Panama made its first World Cup appearance in 2018, it was drawn into a group with England, another European contender (Belgium), and an African country. History has repeated itself with this group. Panama drew England, Croatia, and Ghana. 

Panama will need to be at its best immediately, as its first game is against Ghana. That could well prove to be a win-or-go-home match by the time group play is over. 

Key player: Adalberto Carrasquilla (Pumas UNAM)

This is not your older sibling’s Ghana, which knocked the United States out of the World Cup in 2006 and 2010. Their own golden generation has retired, and now they’re looking to rebuild. Ghana failed to escape the group stage in 2022 and failed to even make it into the AFCON in 2024, even though 24 teams participated in that event.  

The quality of this roster on paper suggests that Ghana should be higher on this list. But at some point, the results and performances have to matter. They’ll struggle to advance out of this group unless they beat Panama in their first match.

Key player: Antoine Semenyo (Manchester City)
Bet: Ghana to finish last in Group L (+225)

Omar Marmoush and Mohamed Salah combine to form one of the best attacking duos at this tournament, but the rest of Egypt’s squad would clearly rank in the bottom 10 in this field. Sadly for Egypt, this tournament didn’t take place last summer, when Salah was fresh off one of the best seasons of his career and was a legitimate Ballon d’Or contender. Instead, almost all of Salah’s numbers at Liverpool have declined due to his age, and he was not nearly as consistent or explosive this season. 

Salah is still a difference-making player, especially at the international level, where the pace of the game is a bit slower. This is the second time in his career that Egypt has qualified for the World Cup, and they have a much better chance of advancing this time. In 2018, Egypt finished last in a group with Uruguay, Russia, and Saudi Arabia. 

Key player: Mo Salah (Liverpool)

Bosnia-Herzegovina beat both Wales and Italy in the European playoff matches in March to qualify for this tournament. Their head coach was honest about his tactical plans and admitted before their upset against Italy that they would indeed park the bus if they took a 1-0 lead. Sure enough, an Italian red card helped Bosnia take the lead, and they proved that night why they will be a difficult out at this tournament. Bosnia is a well-organized defensive team with a couple of young wide players, who serve as excellent outlets, and the 40-year-old Edin Dzeko, who is a prime target for crosses into the penalty area. 

It’s not a complex tactical system, and Bosnia won’t dazzle anyone this summer, but it is very effective at the international level. An organized defense, a plan to move the ball up the field through PSV’s Esmir Bajraktarevic, and a big man to aim for in the penalty area could be enough for them to escape a wide-open Group B.

Key player: Edin Dzeko (Schalke)

The Iranian national team is significantly disadvantaged at this World Cup due to Iran's ongoing war with the United States and Israel. The team was forced to establish its base camp in Mexico, and they will have to fly into the cities hosting their games only one day before each match. That could increase fatigue and jet lag during their matches, and it actively harms their chances of advancing in a weak Group G, even though I have them as the second-best team in this pool after Belgium.

The core of this Iranian roster is aging—Mehdi Taremi is 33, and Saman Ghoddos is 32—but they still had very few issues qualifying in Asia. They didn’t lose a single match in the final qualifying round until after they had already booked their spot in the tournament. 

Key player: Mehdi Taremi (Olympiacos)

Congo had one of the most adventurous paths to qualification of any team in the tournament. After blowing a 2-0 lead at home to Senegal toward the end of group play, fans vandalized the stadium in frustration. Senegal eventually topped the group and forced Congo into a two-round African playoff against Cameroon and Nigeria. Congo beat both teams in back-to-back matches—the latter in a penalty shootout—to claim the final African spot. Then they beat Jamaica in March in an intercontinental playoff to claim this place in a group with Portugal and Colombia.

Congo is battle-tested, and they have multiple Premier League regulars. Newcastle’s Yoane Wissa, West Ham’s Aaron Wan-Bissaka, and Sunderland’s Noah Sadiki are their three best players. 

Even though the country doesn’t have much World Cup pedigree, it’s a potential land mine, and I think Congo will advance as a third-place team.  

Key player: Yoane Wissa (Newcastle)
Bet: Congo to qualify (+100)

Tony Popovic took over the Australian national team in 2024 and led them to a comfortable qualification with an approach that was more pragmatic than his predecessor’s. He also turned over the squad, and they now have an emerging core of players 23 or younger, headlined by Jordan Bos and Cristian Volpato, two regulars in the Dutch and Italian top leagues, respectively. 

Opinions on their draw could differ. You could say they were unlucky because they are by far the best team to be ranked the lowest in their group. Or you could say they were lucky because the gap between first and fourth in their group is the smallest of any at the World Cup. Regardless, Australia is the longest shot to win Group D. 

Key player: Jordan Bos (Feyenoord)

The Canadian national team is facing an injury crisis ahead of its World Cup opener on Friday. Not only is star man Alphonso Davies still racing to recover from a hamstring injury to play at all in this tournament, but center back Moise Bombito (broken tibia) and midfielder Marcelo Flores (torn ACL) will miss this tournament. Canada does not have a ton of depth, and the injuries put more pressure on attackers Tajon Buchanan and Jonathan David.

Under American coach Jesse Marsch, the Canadians want to create as much chaos as possible. The more hectic the game, the better. However, that strategy will be harder to pull off against a team as organized as Switzerland or a team as passive and defensive as Bosnia. Canada will be playing at home and should get three points against Qatar, but they aren’t the favorite in this group.

Key player: Jonathan David (Juventus) 

Sweden qualified for the World Cup through the ultimate backdoor. After winning none of their six qualifying matches, Sweden advanced to the European playoffs via their Nations League placement. They hired former Brighton and Chelsea manager Graham Potter to try to fix their mess, and he did just enough to get them past both Ukraine and Poland to book their place in this tournament.

The problem for Sweden is that none of their best talents are really in form. Alexander Isak had a disappointing and injury-riddled year at Liverpool. Dejan Kulusevski didn’t play for Spurs and isn’t on the roster. Lucas Bergvall missed a lot of time, too. Viktor Gyokeres scored a number of goals, but his performances were up-and-down at Arsenal. Sweden really struggles to control matches through the midfield, and while they have talent, the whole has often been less than the sum of the parts.

Key player: Viktor Gyokeres (Arsenal)
Bet: Sweden to not qualify (+162)

It’s not often that a midfielder is a team’s most dangerous attacking threat, but Scott McTominay is no ordinary midfielder. In fact, he’s often everything but a midfielder. He doesn’t pass the ball much, and he’s not a high-touch player, but he’s always showing up in and around the penalty area to score goals. But scoring has been an issue for this squad, as you might expect for a team that relies so much on its midfielders for goals. McTominay scored Scotland’s lone goal at Euro 2024 as they finished last in their group with Germany, Switzerland, and Hungary. 

We saw at the Euros what happens when Scotland faces an elite team, so their matchup with Brazil could be difficult. However, Scotland can muddy up their game with Morocco and turn that into a potential stalemate as they attempt to nab second place and advance past the group stage for the first time in history. They haven’t even been to the World Cup since 1998.  

Key player: Scott McTominay (Napoli)
Bet: Scotland to finish last in Group C (+700)

Czechia is a physical and defense-first side with an excellent work rate off the ball. They prioritize tackling, ball recoveries, and, yes, set pieces. They’re a tough team to beat, but they also struggle to build leads against inferior foes. The Czechs came through the European playoff, beating both Ireland and Denmark in penalty shootouts at home in Prague.

Bayer Leverkusen striker Patrik Schick and West Ham midfielder Tomas Soucek are the primary goal scorers, the latter doing most of his damage via set pieces and headers.

Key player: Patrik Schick (Leverkusen)

South Korea will be attempting to advance to the knockouts at a second consecutive World Cup, and they’re well-equipped to do so. Korea has numerous players at or near their career peaks who feature for high-level clubs in Europe. Headliners include Bayern’s Kim Min-jae, who anchors the defense, and PSG’s Lee Kang-in, a box-poaching midfielder. The Korea squad however revolves fully around their captain, former Tottenham star and current LAFC talisman Heung-min Son. 

Even though he’s moved on from the Premier League, Son is still an elite finisher and quality dribbler. His ability to make timely runs behind the defense makes Korea a great potential counterattack team. It’s a tossup with Czechia for which team is second-best in this group, but both are very capable of upsetting Mexico. 

Key player: Heung-min Son (LAFC)

The next three teams haven’t been to the World Cup in more than a decade but have real aspirations of reaching the final 16. Algeria made it out of the group in 2014 at their last World Cup and even challenged eventual World Cup champions Germany in the knockout round. Since winning AFCON in 2019, Algeria has struggled through most of the first half of this decade. Qualifying for this tournament represents the start of a potential turnaround. They are still heavily reliant on the wide creation and dribbling abilities of Riyad Mahrez, but the emergence of Wolfsburg’s Mohamed Amoura on the opposite wing adds some real balance to their attacking group.

Algeria’s attack punched well above its weight based on xG during qualifying, and they’ll need to rely on their much sturdier defense to be successful in a group where second place is very much in play. 

Key player: Riyad Mahrez (Al-Ahli)

Austria plays soccer with the same frenetic energy of a podcast at 2x speed. There’s never a moment to think. Especially when you’re facing off against Ralf Rangnick’s pressing monster. This squad has very few names that jump off the page as difference-making players, but they make up for it by constantly applying pressure. Most national teams can’t handle that approach well because they have less time to drill patterns of play to break a press.

Austria went toe-to-toe with both France and the Netherlands in a difficult Euro 2024 group, splitting those two matches. They had the good fortune of getting drawn into one of the weakest qualifying groups. But it’s not clear they have much upside to create quality chances consistently, especially now that attacking midfielder and star man Christoph Baumgartner will miss the World Cup with an injury. 

Key player: Konrad Laimer (Bayern Munich)

The way people romanticize about Ivory Coast teams of yesteryear, it would surprise many to learn that Les Éléphants have actually never advanced out of the World Cup group stage. In 2010, they were drawn alongside Brazil and Portugal in the group of death, and in 2014 they conceded a late goal to Greece, who eliminated them.

19-year-old Bundesliga winger Yan Diomande is one of the best U20s in the world. Germany, who is in this group, is highly vulnerable to direct attacks, so having a winger with experience in the Bundesliga could prove beneficial.

Their opening match against Ecuador in Philadelphia is one of the most intriguing battles of the group stage. It’s a matchup of two of the most popular underdog choices, who sit in a group with a German team that has a penchant for losing at these tournaments. 

Key player: Yan Diomande (RB Leipzig)

Paraguay tied Argentina with the second-fewest goals conceded during South American World Cup qualifying. They aren’t that intimidating on paper, but the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. Paraguay beat both Argentina and Brazil at home in the second half of the qualifying cycle, and new manager Gustavo Alfaro has really emphasized their defense since taking over, with seven clean sheets in 12 matches. 

I had Paraguay ranked two spots higher until star attacker Julio Enciso left their final tune-up game on a stretcher with an injury. Without him, creating chances and scoring goals will be a challenge. 

Key player: Gustavo Gómez (Palmeiras)

Gilberto Mora is one of the World Cup wunderkinds who are set to establish themselves on the global stage this summer. He’s just 17 years old and could provide a much-needed spark to a national team that has been stale for an entire cycle now. Mexico lost in the group stage in Qatar in 2022, and then did the same in a weak Copa Ámerica pool in 2024. Because they didn’t have to go through qualifying, they’re largely untested in competitive matches since then. 

Raúl Jiménez is still scoring goals at Fulham (nine this season), and Edson Álvarez is back fit in time to hold down the midfield, but a Mora breakout is absolutely needed to stop the overall talent drain. 

El Tri are overwhelming favorites to win a weaker Group A, especially with all three games at home. If they do win the group, they’d also be set to play their first two knockout games at home as well. A potential Round of 16 game against England in Mexico City is looming.

Key player: Gilberto Mora (Tijuana)

Turkey has a strong case as the most entertaining team at this tournament. Defending is often optional for them, and they have three of the most exciting attackers in the entire field. The combination of Arda Guler’s elite passing range plus the dominant dribbling of both Kenan Yildiz and Baris Yilmaz gives the Turkish attack a high ceiling. 

All five of Turkey’s games at Euro 2024 featured at least three goals. The best-case scenario for a neutral fan is that they play the USMNT with both teams already qualified so both squads can give it a proper go with no risk of elimination. 

Key player: Arda Guler (Real Madrid)

Japan will be without two of its most important attacking players as Kaoru Mitoma and Takumi Minamino have been ruled out with hamstring and knee injuries, respectively. The Samurai Blue have one of the most distinct and cohesive tactical identities at the entire tournament. They’re physical, aggressive, and relentless in their pressing. Once they win the ball, they use their pace and power to attack quickly in transition and catch opponents out of position.

Japan famously beat both Spain and Germany at the last World Cup and won the group of death despite losing to Costa Rica. Since becoming the first team to qualify for the World Cup with just one defeat in 16 qualifying matches, Japan has beaten both Brazil and England in the last calendar year in friendlies. 

Manager Hajime Moriyasu has spent the last year experimenting a ton with his roster options, and Japan has a lot of quality depth to replace the loss of Mitoma and Minamino. Given how well they match up with the Netherlands, Japan should feel confident they can pull an upset in their opening group game. 

Key player: Ritsu Doan (Eintracht Frankfurt)
Bet: Japan to win Group F (+250)

Manager Mauricio Pochettino’s decision to play three center backs is the correct one to maximize the United States’s talent distribution. Because Jedi Robinson and Sergiño Dest are effective as wide players going forward, playing them as wing backs lessens their defensive responsibility and gives them more freedom to be aggressive and provide width to the American attack. The 3-4-2-1 formation switch also enables Christian Pulisic to play as an inside forward, which is a much more natural position for him. At times, he’s been isolated in wide areas when the USMNT plays against quality defensive sides, and that’s much less likely to happen in this setup.

The extra center back also provides cover for Tyler Adams in the midfield since Weston McKennie and Malik Tillman are more aggressive central midfielders that look to press and roam all over the pitch. 

The U.S. system is fragile because it’s reliant on a handful of important players with lengthy injury histories. As long as Chris Richards (ankle) is healthy—he returned to training on Monday—the Americans will have their full strength and best starting XI available.

The USMNT was able to generate both transition and direct attacks with regularity in a Saturday friendly against Germany. The more they’re able to use their high quality dribbling skills in space, the better off they will be. The defense has struggled with goal prevention under Pochettino, but the attack packs significantly more punch now than it has at any point since Qatar 2022. 

The expectation should be for the United States to reach the Round of 16, as they did in 2022. If they win Group D, then they’ll face a third-place team in the opening knockout round. 

Key player: Christian Pulisic (AC Milan)
Bet: USA to make the round of 16 (-110)

Marcelo Bielsa’s 2023 arrival to Uruguay re-energized the soccer nation following disappointing showings at the 2021 Copa America and 2022 World Cup. Uruguay smothered Argentina and Brazil in back-to-back matches in fall 2023 and then beat the United States and Brazil at the 2024 Copa America. But that seems to have been the peak for Bielsa, as the team has struggled to maintain its form since.

National team legend Luis Suarez had been publicly critical of the demands of a Bielsa system, which requires a ton of running, pressing, and intensity. And there have been internal questions about whether his system is actually maximizing their talent. 

They have an excellent midfield and defensive spine thanks to Federico Valverde, Rodrigo Bentancur, and Ronald Araujo, but this group lacks the attacking firepower to make a deep run. The wide creation from Maxi Araujo is paramount to help them consistently move the ball forward in possession. 

Key player: Maxi Araujo (Sporting Lisbon)

It’s another international tournament, which means it’s time for all of us to mistakenly count out Croatia due to their aging squad. In the end, they always prove us wrong by continuing to outrun Father Time. 

Somehow, Luka Modric is still running in the midfield and kicking balls with perfect touch at age 40. Croatia started four players in their mid-30s throughout much of qualifying, and are still heavily reliant on Ivan Perisic, Andrej Kramaric, and Ante Budimir alongside Modric in their old-man quartet.

Croatia is all about control and establishes it in matches by possessing the ball in midfield with their superior technical quality. Based on expected goals, Croatia had better underlying metrics than Germany, the Netherlands, and Norway during World Cup qualifying. They should have a majority of the possession in all three group matches, even against England. The English are always happy to play a slower tempo match, but that will play right into Croatia’s preferences, too. 

Their entire squad is another year older, but they shouldn’t have any issues finishing second in a top-heavy group. 

Key player: Josko Gvardiol (Manchester City)

Senegal were the AFCON champions on the field, until the result was overturned months later because of a technicality. Regardless of what a bunch of lawyers and arbitrators say, Senegal and Morocco are the two best African teams at this World Cup in terms of talent, performance, and competitiveness. And both should expect to advance out of their respective groups.

Senegal beat Ecuador on the final day of World Cup group play in 2022 to advance to the knockout stage before coming up short in a more-competitive-than-it-looks 3-0 loss to England in the round of 16. Since then, Senegal pulled off a 3-2 victory on the road against DR Congo (coming back from 2-0) to win their qualifying group, and they beat both Mali and Egypt before the controversial final in January. 

Now, Senegal ranks 14th in the world in Transfermarkt squad value. The team is highlighted by Premier League wingers Ismaila Sarr and Iliman Ndiaye, who are excellent ballcarriers in transition. Senegal won’t want to have a lot of possession—they are very comfortable sitting in a mid-defensive block and springing counterattacks into space once they win the ball off their opponents. Primary forwards Sadio Mane and Nicolas Jackson are well suited to that play style. 

Key player: Iliman Ndiaye (Everton)

You won’t find a national soccer team that’s been more consistent over the past 15 years than Switzerland. They’ve reached the round of 16 in each of the past three World Cups before bowing out. They pulled off wins against bigger soccer powers (France and Italy) in the past two European championships before losing in the quarterfinals in penalty shoot-outs each time. 

Now the Swiss are primed to break through their ceiling. They’ve still never won a World Cup knockout game, but they’ll be favored to do so in 2026 with the expanded format. If the Swiss win their group, they’ll face a third-place team in the knockout, and if they come in second, they’ll get the runner-up from the weaker Group A.

The midfield is still anchored by the aging but reliable duo of Granit Xhaka and Remo Freuler, and regular international contributor Breel Embolo leads the line.   

Some of the past fixtures for Switzerland—Xherdan Shaqiri and Yann Sommer—have retired from international duty. The Swiss are betting on a new crop of youngsters to continue their tradition of being the most consistently good but never the greatest international soccer team.   

Key player: Granit Xhaka (Sunderland)
Bet: Switzerland to win Group B (–125)

What's the point where a dark horse pick is no longer a dark horse? We’re approaching that threshold with Norway. Norway have most of the ingredients you’d want in a good international soccer team. They have the best pure striker in the world in Erling Haaland. They have Martin Odegaard, an elite attacking midfielder who can pass Haaland the ball and create chances. The question is just whether Odegaard will be fit enough to carry the creative load after a long, injury-riddled season with Arsenal. 

Norway played to a hard-fought 1-1 draw with Morocco in a friendly on Sunday, and they struggled to break down an excellent Morocco defensive block. But you cannot argue with the absurd qualifying numbers they put up. Not only did they thrash Italy 7-1 in aggregate over two legs, but they also finished in the top eight in Europe in xG difference and outscored their opponents 37-5 in eight games. 

This is Norway’s first time in the World Cup since 1998. They’ll open with Iraq, and they're expected to score a (necessary) three points before difficult games against Senegal and France. 

Key player: Erling Haaland (Manchester City) 

Belgium’s best player is no longer Kevin De Bruyne or Romelu Lukaku—it’s 24-year-old Jeremy Doku. The Manchester City winger had five goals and five assists this year and finally showed development in the penalty area to combine with his elite dribbling skills. Since its golden generation washed out, Belgium’s squad has no longer been among the global elites, but it remains in a dangerous second tier. 

There was strife and tension within the Belgian camp over previous manager Domenico Tedesco. But new manager Rudi Garcia has stabilized the team in part because he brought elite goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois back into the fold. Garcia also opted to play Charles De Ketelaere over Lukaku at striker in a 5-0 friendly win against Tunisia on Friday, and it seems as though Lukaku will serve as a super sub in this tournament. 

With Youri Tielemans and De Bruyne in the lineup, Belgium won’t struggle with forward passing. Those players, along with Doku, are ball progression machines. The big question is whether the Belgians can hold up physically and defensively when they play another team that can match their attacking firepower. 

They are clearly the best team in a weak Group G, and they could play the United States in the round of 16 if both teams win their groups. And unfortunately for the USMNT, Tim Howard isn’t walking through that door.  

Key player: Jeremy Doku (Manchester City)

Morocco was the first African nation to ever reach the World Cup semifinals in 2022; they stunned Belgium, Spain, and Portugal in the tournament before eventually losing to France. They beautifully embodied the defend-and-direct-attack style in Qatar. Now they’re back, and they’re once again a contender to make a deep run. Zohran Mamdani even picked them to win the whole damn thing. 

The 2026 version of Morocco has more attacking talent; Brahim Diaz, Ismael Saibari, and AbdeEzzelzouli are key players who’ve emerged after not playing much four years ago. Their defensive outfit remains solid, too, but their tactics will need to change now that Morocco's no longer a surprise contender. They’ll be expected to dominate possession and control matches with the ball when they play Haiti and Scotland, which wasn’t something they had to do much in the 2022 World Cup. 

Morocco made it all the way to the AFCON final before losing (on the field) to Senegal, and they cruised through World Cup qualifying. 2022 manager Walid Regragui didn’t survive the loss to Senegal, and he’s been replaced by the much less experienced Mohamed Ouahbi. He’s tweaked the formation to get star man Achraf Hakimi forward more often. 

Morocco opens group play against Brazil at MetLife Stadium, one of the most highly anticipated games of the 2026 group stage. That match will probably decide who wins the group given the gap between the top two and Scotland and Haiti.  

Key player: Achraf Hakimi (Paris Saint-Germain)

The 2026 World Cup could mark the end of the storied career of Colombian legend James Rodriguez. He burst onto the scene at the 2014 World Cup, where Colombia made the quarterfinals and he dazzled with six goals and won the Golden Boot. While his club career never reached the sustained heights many dreamed of, he remains a national hero. Rodriguez won player of the tournament at the 2024 Copa América, where his magical left foot helped guide Colombia to the final before a 1-0 loss to Argentina. 

Colombia's defense is elite, and their set pieces will always excel thanks to Rodriguez’s delivery. They can also center their open-play attack on the in-form and peaking Luis Diaz. He’s elite at retaining possession in dangerous areas. 

Colombia’s match against Portugal in Miami is the most highly anticipated of the entire group stage. It will likely decide the top spot in the group, and Colombia is a tough team to beat. 

Key player: Luis Diaz (Bayern Munich)
Bets: Colombia to reach the round of 16 (–110) and win Group K (+250)

Ecuador finished second in South American World Cup qualifiers, allowing just five goals in 18 matches. This group definitely outperformed its xG numbers on defense, but it’s as rock solid as any team in this field. Ecuador does not concede many high-quality scoring chances with PSG’s Willian Pacho and Arsenal’s Piero Hincapié anchoring the defense as centerbacks, and Chelsea’s Moises Caicedo, one of the best ball-winners in the world, marauding through the midfield.

But there’s reason to be skeptical about Ecuador: While they conceded only five goals in World Cup qualifying, they scored just 14. Nineteen goals in 18 matches is some diabolically boring soccer, but it’s also a sign of just how limited their attack can be. Ecuador aren’t built to play from behind, and they’re not built to generate a margin. They are the quintessential team that “no one will want to play” in the knockouts. 

Ecuador are still reliant on 36-year-old striker Enner Valencia, who has 19-year-old Kendry Paez as one of the primary creators behind him. 

Their opening game against Ivory Coast on Sunday is one of the most enticing and underrated matchups of the entire group stage. The winner will immediately become a threat to Germany at the top of the group.

Key player: Moisés Caicedo (Chelsea)
Bets: Ecuador to make the round of 16 (+150) and the quarterfinal (+550)

The Netherlands retained manager Ronald Koeman following their run to the Euro 2024 semifinals, where the Dutch had a real mixed bag of results. Their semifinal appearance was a good result given how shorthanded their midfield was, but they also just had to beat Romania, Poland, and Turkey to get there. 

The Dutch were famous for their total football strategy back in the Johan Cruyff days, but this squad and projected lineup are a major departure from that approach. The current expected midfield of Frenkie de Jong, Tijjani Reijnders, and Ryan Gravenberch is extremely light on passing quality. All three are ballcarriers, and starting them together would call Koeman’s squad building into question.

Teams that can execute a quality defensive press (like Japan) will be able to exploit the Dutch’s inability to pass through and over them. The injury to Xavi Simons will limit their passing even more. And while Cody Gakpo’s finishing has run hot in multiple international tournaments, the Dutch don’t have anyone to consistently get him the ball.

The Dutch have great defenders on paper, but under Koeman their stats haven't lived up to their potential. In their four games against Spain and Germany in the 2024-25 Nations League, the Netherlands conceded eight total goals. 

They are probably the “best of the rest” after the big seven, but their floor is lower than people might realize. An injury to Japan’s Kaoru Mitoma and the Swedish team’s struggles make this group much weaker than it otherwise appears. 

Key player: Cody Gakpo (Liverpool)

Brazil’s case is mostly aura based. It’s Brazil. If you asked 100 random people what nation is most synonymous with soccer, Brazil would be the most common reply. But the country hasn’t made it beyond the quarterfinals in the past two World Cups. Last year, though, they went and hired “Don” Carlo Ancelotti, a manager who’s regularly brought the winning touch to every club he’s coached. He’s the ultimate vibes over tactics coach, and he’s here to restore Brazil’s tarnished reputation. 

He’s tasked with fixing a squad that is otherwise in an identity crisis. Brazil lost to Belgium in 2018 and to Croatia in 2022, even though the Brazilians had superior underlying numbers and elite metrics in each tournament. Brazil looked like a top-two or top-three team each time, but on paper, this squad doesn’t look as good as those previous iterations. Brazil lost in the quarterfinal of the Copa América in 2024 and won just one of their four games there. Then they finished fifth in South America World Cup qualifying.

Rodrygo and Estêvão aren’t on the squad, and Neymar is already hurt. Brazil have plenty of depth, but they lack difference-making superstar talent at the top. They have wingers Vinícius Júnior and Raphinha but no other truly elite talents. Their Transfermarkt squad value is sixth among the teams in the field. Their talent and depth and Ancelotti's tournament pedigree combine to make them one of the most dangerous teams in the field, but their floor is lower than usual for a Brazilian squad.

Key player: Vinícius Júnior (Real Madrid)

Last summer, Portugal beat Germany and Spain in the UEFA Nations League, cementing its place among the favorites for the 2026 World Cup. Unlike the chaotic buildup to Qatar, Portugal also cruised through World Cup qualifying.

Yet the conversation around the team has shifted.

A video of Cristiano Ronaldo missing a routine free header in a friendly on Saturday has been viewed more than 13 million times on X. He still takes many of Portugal's free kicks despite sharing the field with several superior set-piece specialists. The debate is no longer whether Ronaldo is Portugal's greatest strength, but whether he's becoming a weakness.

That's an uncomfortable discussion for a national team that has relied on his greatness for multiple decades. Even though Portugal has never won a World Cup, it has consistently punched above its weight on the global stage. Portugal possesses elite midfield depth, dynamic attacking talent, and arguably the strongest squad in its history. It also has the shortest odds of any nation still searching for its first World Cup title.

The concern is that Portugal may still be too dependent on Ronaldo. He remains a reliable goal scorer, but he’s 41. At this stage of his career he'd likely be most effective as a super sub, and not as a player asked to start every match. His lack of defensive work places additional strain on the rest of the team. Given how heavily Roberto Martínez has relied on him throughout qualifying and in pre-tournament friendlies, Portugal's World Cup hopes may ultimately depend on whether it can win with Ronaldo in a role that no longer perfectly fits the modern game.

Key player: Cristiano Ronaldo (Al-Nassr)

In a 2-1 win over the United States on Saturday, Germany showed that it still cannot defend direct and transition attacks well. 

The USMNT ultimately didn’t punish Germany with a goal, but the Americans were consistently dangerous in the first half. This flaw is what Japan exploited to beat Germany at the 2022 World Cup. It’s the reason Germany lost to England at Euro 2021. It’s the reason the Germans dropped a qualifying match at Slovakia in this cycle. Elite tactician and manager Julian Nagelsmann has designed a system to get the most out of his two elite attacking midfielders—Florian Wirtz and Jamal Musiala. Combine those two with Kai Havertz, striker Nick Woltemade, and winger Leroy Sané, and you have an elite attacking group with wide-ranging skill sets. 

Germany’s passing quality and range is probably second to only Spain, and you could make a convincing case the Germans were the second-best team at Euro 2024 and just had the misfortune of playing Spain in the quarterfinals. The German setup is fragile, however, because the team has just OK defensive numbers, and they’re in a difficult group with Ecuador and Ivory Coast. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Germany take an early shock loss, but this team’s ceiling remains extremely high given the squad is littered with elite passers all over the pitch. 

Key player: Jamal Musiala (Bayern Munich)

The reigning World Cup champions will try to run it back in 2026. Argentina had the best underlying xG data of any team from South America during qualifying and comfortably finished at the top of the table. The team won the Copa América in 2024, despite close contests against both Ecuador and Colombia in the knockouts. 

The overwhelming majority of Argentina’s starting XI for this World Cup will be the same as the one that started against France in 2022. A likely midfield of Alexis Mac Allister, Rodrigo De Paul, and Enzo Fernández will provide plenty of pressing intensity and defensive ball winning. Cristian Romero is healthy just in time to combine with Lisandro Martínez to form arguably the most aggressive defensive duo in world soccer. Argentina should remain a stellar defensive team, but what does Lionel Messi have left to give as he tries to replicate a historic 2022 World Cup? Argentina’s attack sputtered when he wasn’t at his best due to injury in the Copa América, and the Argentines don’t have another clear chance creator to pull the strings. The same continuity that makes Argentina so stable also limits its upside. Few teams know exactly who they are. Few teams are also relying on as many 30-somethings in key roles.

Note: It’s paramount that Argentina wins its group because a second-place finish would likely set up a meeting with Spain in the round of 32. 

Key player: Lionel Messi (Inter Miami)

Imagine if a team with Arsenal's stylistic footprint showed up at the World Cup. That’s England.

The similarities are striking. England is built on an elite defense, a pragmatic approach in possession, and an outsized reliance on set pieces to create chances. Under Thomas Tuchel, the formula looks familiar. Tuchel won the Champions League with Chelsea in 2021 by pairing defensive dominance with just enough attacking quality, and now he'll try to do something similar on the international stage.

England rarely loses. It almost never concedes goals. Yet a sense of dissatisfaction seems to follow the team everywhere it goes. For all of its talent, there's a lingering question about whether England creates enough from open play to win the biggest matches against the world's elite. 

The difference between England and Arsenal, though, is that Tuchel has something Mikel Arteta doesn't: Harry Kane. When margins are thin and chances are scarce, having one of the best finishers of his generation can be the difference between a quarterfinal exit and lifting the trophy.

With Elliot Anderson joining Declan Rice in midfield and some proper left wingers, this squad is more balanced than the Euro 2024 squad, which lost to Spain in the final. England also would end up on the half of the draw opposite France and Spain if all three teams won their respective groups. 

Key player: Harry Kane (Bayern Munich)
Bets: Jordan Pickford to win Golden Glove (+700) and England to win Group L (-250)

If you’re treating the World Cup as a “name some guys” exercise, then France would be the first team on this list. The attacking group is the best assembly of forwards since Ronaldo, Rivaldo, and Ronaldinho for Brazil in 2002. Michael Olise has blossomed into one of the best creators in the world, and he has Kylian Mbappé and Ousmane Dembélé as his outlets and finishers. When it’s not Olise, France can also turn to Rayan Cherki’s wonderful creative genius to produce moments of magic. The backup forwards would probably be a top-10 attacking group in this field if they formed their own team. 

I’m already getting excited about what France could look like. So why isn’t it ranked first? What France can be is often not what France actually is under Didier Deschamps. You cannot knock the results, as he won the World Cup in 2018 and then was runner-up in 2022. But France’s attack looked so disjointed at Euro 2024 that it’s fair to wonder whether those problems will linger when the French again face high-quality opponents. And as much as Cherki and Mbappé dazzle in possession, their questionable work rates off the ball will make it difficult to trust France to defend effectively without the ball in this tournament. 

France is rightfully one of the favorites to win this entire tournament. No one would be surprised if the French did the thing. But their performances against Spain the past two years—and the lacking midfield depth—leave them second on this list. 

Key player: Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid)

Not only did Spain win the European Championship in 2024, but it also backed that title up with an appearance in the Nations League final last summer (where it lost to Portugal in a penalty shootout). Spain has beaten France in the Euro and Nations League semifinals in matches that really weren’t as close as the 2-1 and 5-4 final scores would indicate. Spain won both of those matches because of its midfield and structural superiority, and not much has changed between the two teams since. 

A Lamine Yamal hamstring injury isn’t enough to change my opinion that Spain is the most complete all-around team at this World Cup. Yamal won’t play in the first two group games, but Spain won’t need him to glide past Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde. Spain will need him for the business end of this tournament, but we’ll worry about that part later.  

The 18-year-old phenom gets a ton of the spotlight, but he’s not the only under-23 superstar for this Spanish side. Both Pedri and Pau Cubarsí are flying under the radar. Pedri is one of the best forward passers in the world, and when you pair him with elite destroyer Rodri and do-everything midfielder Fabián Ruiz, you have the best midfield at the tournament. Cubarsídidn’t even play in the past two international tournaments, but he’s established himself as a promising young defender the past two seasons at Barcelona. There’s no team that can match Spain’s combination of control and attacking firepower. 

If Yamal comes back and isn’t fully fit, then there are real questions about the ceiling of Spain’s attack. But if he is, there’s no question for me who the best team is in this field. 

Key player: Lamine Yamal (Barcelona)
Bets: Spain to win the World Cup (+450), Pedri to win the Golden Ball (+2,000)