The Ringer - Everything You Need to Know at the NFL’s 2020 Midseason Point2020-11-13T06:15:00-05:00http://www.theringer.com/rss/stream/213260492020-11-13T06:15:00-05:002020-11-13T06:15:00-05:00Strong First Impressions and Bright Futures for the NFL’s Rookie QBs
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<p>Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, and Justin Herbert each assumed the starting job amid different circumstances, but all three have delivered on the hope their franchises have placed in them </p> <p id="JQyadK">In Week 1, it was unclear if any rookie quarterback aside from Joe Burrow would start in 2020. Now, more than halfway through the season, Burrow, Justin Herbert, and Tua Tagovailoa are all starting for the Bengals, Chargers, and Dolphins, respectively, and playing well enough to<a href="https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2020/11/9/21556558/nfl-rookie-qb-burrow-tagovailoa-herbert-2004-manning-rivers-roethlisberger"> draw comparisons to the 2004 rookie class</a> that included Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, and Ben Roethlisberger. This year’s group entered a league that has become more pass-heavy in the past 16 years, and the 2020 rookie quarterbacks have been <a href="https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2020/11/9/21556558/nfl-rookie-qb-burrow-tagovailoa-herbert-2004-manning-rivers-roethlisberger">far more productive</a> than that 2004 group was on a per-game basis. It’s all about the future for Burrow, Herbert, or Tagovailoa—the players they develop into are much more important to their teams than the players they are right now—but the early returns of this season show each one is further along than anticipated. </p>
<h4 id="NaGily">Joe Burrow, no. 1 overall pick, Cincinnati Bengals<strong> </strong>
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<p id="xIBdpD">Burrow is the only one of these three rookies who has started since Week 1 and prepared as the starter during training camp. He’s also the quarterback whose NFL performances have most clearly backed up his scouting out of LSU. After eight starts, Burrow has a 67 percent completion rate, 11 touchdowns, five interceptions, and is averaging 284 yards per game and 6.9 yards per attempt. He’s played well, but he has—by far—the worst situation around him of all the rookie QBs. The Bengals (2-5-1) have one of the least talented rosters in the league and play in one of its hardest divisions, the AFC North. </p>
<p id="8wPceq">Through Week 7, Burrow has been sacked 28 times and 22 percent of his completed throws have been into tight windows where his receivers get less than 1 yard of separation. Both of those numbers are second worst in the NFL. Burrow has been under constant pressure and doesn’t get a lot of easy, open targets, but the Bengals have still asked him to drop back and throw 330 times, more than all but two other quarterbacks: Matt Ryan and Tom Brady. It’s as if Cincinnati is testing the 10,000-hour rule with Burrow, and hoping all those reps will help accelerate his development—as long as the pressure doesn’t crush him in the meantime. So far, so good—Burrow seems to have developed an especially great connection with rookie wide receiver Tee Higgins—though it will be difficult to keep him clean in the pocket against the Steelers on Sunday. </p>
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<p id="5sKMJk"><br>The best sign for the Bengals is that Burrow’s performance looks sustainable. His accuracy, considered his best trait when he was drafted, is evident with his tight-window throws. Burrow has also excelled on passes up to 20 yards down the field, <a href="https://twitter.com/PFF/status/1323354441613897728?s=20">ranking third among starting quarterbacks through Week 8, according to Pro Football Focus</a>. Accuracy and short-to-intermediate-range passing are both fairly stable and predictive indicators of future performance.<strong> </strong></p>
<h4 id="GYD4Wm">Tua Tagovailoa, no. 5 overall pick, Miami Dolphins<strong> </strong>
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<p id="AQ3OiV">Tagovailoa has the smallest sample size, having started only two games, and is in the best situation of the three rookie quarterbacks. In his first two starts, he’s shown major improvement on a drive-to-drive basis. In Week 8 against the Rams, Tagovailoa completed 12-of-22 passes for 93 yards and one touchdown and the Dolphins offense was bailed out by defense and special teams. </p>
<p id="0KsqHk">In his second start in Week 9, Tagovailoa was 20-of-28 passing for 248 yards and two touchdowns. Tagovailoa drove the Dolphins into field goal range before halftime and finished 6-of-8 for 77 yards, a touchdown, and a 144.7 quarterback rating. He also had three carries for 24 yards in Miami’s final three possessions in the win against the Cardinals. </p>
<p id="yViI54">The enthusiasm around Tagovailoa’s debut comes with a sense of relief that he’s healthy and looks comfortable on the field. A year ago, he was considered the likely no. 1 pick, but his draft stock fell after a devastating hip injury suffered last November while playing for Alabama. The injury led to questions about whether Tagovailoa would be the same player once he recovered and, though his health will be a long-term question for the Dolphins, the fact that he’s playing so soon has already validated their decision to draft him. Offensive coordinator Chan Gailey<a href="https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/11/11/chan-gailey-cant-see-a-real-difference-from-pre-injury-tua-tagovailoa/"> told reporters on Tuesday that he “can’t see a real difference,” in how Tagovailoa has played this year</a> from how he did in college and that the quarterback has relieved any health concerns he might have had. Gailey might have been thinking about a play on a third-and-four in the fourth quarter against Arizona, when Tagovailoa juked Cardinals safety Budda Baker in the open field to run for the first down. The Dolphins are currently in the playoff picture. If Tagovailoa keeps improving,<a href="https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2020/10/21/21527117/tua-tagovailoa-miami-dolphins-starter"> the poise and playmaking he also showed at Alabama should be enough to get Miami there.</a><strong> </strong></p>
<h4 id="AxTFEW">Justin Herbert, no. 6 overall pick, Los Angeles Chargers<strong> </strong>
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<p id="Rj5ceG">Herbert’s first NFL start came under less-than-ideal circumstances. Just minutes before the Chargers kicked off Week 2 against the Chiefs, a team doctor<a href="https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1308793001213394944?s=20"> accidentally punctured then-starting quarterback Tyrod Taylor’s lung while administering a pain-killing injection</a>. Taylor had to go to the hospital and Herbert had to start with Patrick Mahomes on the opposite sideline.</p>
<div class="c-float-left"><aside id="LDEKlU"><div data-anthem-component="readmore" data-anthem-component-data='{"stories":[{"title":"The NFL’s COVID-19 Tightrope Act Is Facing Another Stress Test","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2020/11/12/21561962/nfl-midseason-covid-playoff-super-bowl"},{"title":"The NFL Has Never Seen an Offensive Boom Like This","url":"https://www.theringer.com/2020/11/12/21561876/nfl-scoring-boom-offense"},{"title":"Pity the Poor Punter During the NFL’s Offensive Boom","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2020/11/11/21559877/pity-the-poor-punter-nfl-2020"}]}'></div></aside></div>
<p id="criC4L">Herbert was shockingly fantastic: He threw for 311 yards and a touchdown and rushed for another while throwing one interception. His performance was surprising considering the circumstances that thrust him into the starting position, but also because of how his play defied the<a href="https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2020/4/16/21222904/justin-herbert-nfl-draft-2020-quarterback-strengths-weaknesses-film-oregon-chargers"> scouting consensus of him coming out of Oregon—that he had great physical tools but wasn’t NFL-ready or an anticipatory thrower</a>. Herbert completed 64 percent of his passes in four years at Oregon compared to 69 percent for both Burrow and Tagovailoa, though he also played with less NFL-caliber talent around him. Including Herbert, four Oregon Ducks were taken in the 2020 draft compared with 10 Alabama players and 14 LSU Tigers. </p>
<p id="7MtpGD">Herbert has since built on his Week 2 performance. He’s completed 67 percent of his passes and thrown for 2,146 yards, 17 touchdowns, and five interceptions with a 104.7 passer rating in seven starts. The Chargers are 1-6 in those games but, depending who you ask, that’s more because of their defense, special teams, or cursed cosmic destiny than it is about Herbert—Los Angeles has <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/2020/11/04/chargers-make-blown-leads-an-art-form-in-season-full-of-them/42992097/">blown three leads of at least 17 points this season to become the first team to do so since the 2003 Falcons</a>. </p>
<p id="aYlZCL">Other than the fact that Los Angeles has<a href="https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2019/12/4/20995317/chargers-losses-one-score-game-missed-kicks-pass-interference"> turned losing into an art form</a>, they have given Herbert the best supporting cast of receivers of this bunch. Unlike Burrow, who’s been forced to throw into tight windows, Herbert has been throwing to receivers with at least 5 yards of separation on 23 percent of his passes, according to Next Gen Stats. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams can make contested catches, but more importantly, they can both get open to give Herbert easier targets. Herbert’s performance is still a bit volatile—he’s had success throwing deep, averaging 11.9 yards per completion, but through Week 8 he is<a href="https://twitter.com/PFF/status/1323354441613897728?s=20"> ranked 20th on passes up to 20 yards, according to PFF</a>. His future success may be less any predict than a player like Burrow, but Herbert he has clearly exceeded expectations. Herbert’s ability to get through reads quickly was questioned during the predraft process, but he has been excellent when pressured,<a href="https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-week-8-qb-review-joe-burrow-and-justin-herbert-continue-to-impress-but-their-styles-have-been-vastly-different"> and has a 102.2 passer rating and more passing yards under pressure than any quarterback other than Josh Allen</a>. </p>
<p class="c-end-para" id="VWFIAF">If teams got a do-over of the 2020 draft today, the quarterbacks would probably go in the same order. It could seem like Herbert’s productivity could have him leapfrog Tagovailoa, since he went only one slot later, but Tagovailoa has assuaged concerns about his health, which is likely just as important. Where Herbert could jump both Tagovailoa and Burrow, however, is in the Offensive Rookie of the Year race. In Week 9, Herbert broke Cam Newton’s record of 2,103 for the most passing yards in a rookie’s first seven starts since at least 1950, which was enough to make him the front-runner. Burrow is also in the hunt for the award, and though Tagovailoa may have begun starting too late in the season to get serious consideration, he does have a path: The Dolphins play the Chargers Sunday and have the Bengals on the schedule in Week 13, meaning Tagovailoa’s team could sweep Herbert’s and Burrow’s teams this season. If that happens, and Tagovailoa plays well, there’s an argument there for him to win on those grounds. It’s too early to know how the rookie quarterbacks will stack up at the end of the season and definitely too early to know how they’ll fare in the future, but what’s clear so far is that the 2020 class has already exceeded expectations and will be one to watch.</p>
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https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2020/11/13/21562960/joe-burrow-tua-tagovailoa-justin-herbert-rookie-nfl-quarterbacksNora Princiotti2020-11-12T08:10:57-05:002020-11-12T08:10:57-05:00The NFL Has Never Seen an Offensive Boom Like This
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<figcaption>Getty Images/Ringer illustration</figcaption>
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<p>Scoring and yardage is up, turnovers and punts are down—football has changed in 2020 like no other season in recent memory. Is this good for the game, and how will the league respond?</p> <aside id="lFKeKP"><div data-anthem-component="readmore" data-anthem-component-data='{"stories":[{"title":"Everything You Need to Know at the NFL’s 2020 Midseason Point","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2020/11/12/21562008/everything-you-need-to-know-at-the-nfls-2020-midseason-point"}]}'></div></aside><p id="n7LiQ7">The extraordinary circumstances surrounding the start of the 2020 NFL season―including COVID-related restrictions on training camp and practice time, preseason cancellations, and the wave of player opt-outs―left me feeling skeptical about the quality of the football we’d see across the league this season. I remember discussions back in July and August about the oncoming deluge of sloppy football, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. Many expected that quarterbacks and receivers wouldn’t have enough time to fine-tune their timing and chemistry, and offensive linemen wouldn’t get enough reps they’d need to jell as a unit. The safest assumption at that point seemed to be that we’d get a bunch of ugly, low-scoring games this season. Or so I thought.</p>
<div class="c-float-left"><aside id="DHYFPm"><div data-anthem-component="readmore" data-anthem-component-data='{"stories":[{"title":"Which Single-Season NFL Records Are Poised to Fall in 2020?","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2020/11/12/21561725/single-season-records-midseason-russell-wilson-patrick-mahomes"},{"title":"Which NFL Breakout Performances Are Here to Stay?","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2020/11/12/21561812/breakout-performances-justin-herbert-james-robinsonuntitled"},{"title":"The Fatal Flaws That Could Sink the NFL’s Top Contenders","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2020/11/11/21559211/fatal-flaws-nfl-contenders"}]}'></div></aside></div>
<p id="db6iW7">But with nine weeks in the books, the opposite has proven to be true. Thanks to a perfect storm of driving forces―from the league’s offense-benefiting mandate on <a href="https://www.nfl.com/news/referees-focusing-on-clear-and-obvious-calls-as-penalties-drop">calling only the most “clear and obvious” penalties</a> to a new lack of <a href="https://twitter.com/AndrewSiciliano/status/1326375395474673666">home-field advantage</a> (because of the absence or low number of fans in the stands) that makes it easier for road teams to communicate in opposing stadiums―the NFL finds itself in the middle of the most marvelous scoring boom in its history. </p>
<p id="6l9rQY">The overall offensive numbers that teams are putting up this year are staggering. Let’s start with the bottom line: total points. Through nine weeks, NFL teams are on track to score a projected 12,967 total points, which would be a record by a massive margin―nearly 1,000 more points than the next closest season. For some context, the difference between 2020’s points pace and the second-highest scoring season on record (2013) would be 980 points, or approximately the difference between 2013 and 2004, currently the 14th-highest scoring season ever.</p>
<p id="PmFDkp">Narrowed down to more easily digestible terms (and better accounting for the league’s gradual expansion in the number of franchises and games per year), teams are averaging 25.3 points per game so far this season, nearly two full points higher than the league’s second-most prolific scoring season to date (2013, when teams averaged 23.4 points per game). The 1.9 point margin between the first and second spots might not <em>sound</em> like a lot, but it’s an absolutely massive chasm, roughly equal to the gap between the NFL’s second- and 31st-ranked scoring seasons. Without getting into standard deviations or orders of magnitude or anything math or scientific sounding, I think it’d suffice to say we’re seeing fucking shitload of scoring relative to every other season in the NFL’s history. </p>
<p id="WtkAY6">Check out 2020’s scoring spike on the graph below, which plots average team points per game for every season going back to 1950. The red line represents that average over that period, showing that the league has gradually increased scoring for years now—but there’s still nothing like the jump from 2019 to this season: </p>
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<p id="57ICgN">As you’d expect, a big part of the league’s scoring explosion has been the result of incredible quarterback play. NFL teams are averaging more <a href="https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/NFL/scoring.htm#all_team_scoring_season_totals">passing touchdowns per game (1.77)</a> than any other season in history, and passing numbers, both in volume and efficiency, are up nearly all across the board. Quarterbacks are <a href="https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/NFL/passing.htm">averaging 35.3 attempts per game</a>, fourth most ever; they’re throwing for an average of 245.3 yards per game, averaging 7.4 yards per attempt, and tallying a 95.1 passer rating, all on pace to rank no. 1 for quarterbacks in any season since the 1970 NFL-AFL merger. And despite all that passing, the league’s quarterbacks are on pace to throw just 404 total interceptions, which would be the lowest mark this century. Turnovers are down year over year (from 2.8 per game last year to 2.6 per game this season). It’s gotten to the point that I’m starting to feel bad for the NFL’s defenses. </p>
<p id="PhVqCi">The league’s defenders aren’t the only ones who’ve suffered during this historic scoring boom. As <em>Ringer</em> colleague Nora Princiotti wrote this week, <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2020/11/11/21559877/pity-the-poor-punter-nfl-2020">punters are suffering from unprecedented bouts of boredom</a> this year. Per Princiotti, the league has seen an 18 percent decrease in total punts through the first nine weeks, leaving the NFL on track to record its fewest punts in any season since it went to a 16-game schedule in 1978. Punters have been a relative afterthought thanks to the NFL’s record-setting pace for offensive third-down conversions (offenses gained first downs on 42.8 percent of third downs in the first eight weeks, per <a href="https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-insider-notes-why-scoring-is-on-record-pace-in-2020-a-glimmer-of-hope-for-jets-week-9-picks-and-more/">CBS’s Jonathan Jones,</a> a rate that, should it carry, would represent a new NFL record) and a far more aggressive mindset on fourth downs (teams are <a href="https://twitter.com/StatsbyLopez/status/1313574544687484928?s=20">going for it on fourth down at</a> record paces this year). </p>
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<p id="YFgmqX">A few teams are keeping their field goal kickers out in the cold, too. The 6-2 Seahawks are the perfect microcosm for a season defined by fun, hyperefficient offenses, lamentable defensive performances, and a rarely used kicking game: Led by MVP candidate Russell Wilson, Seattle is on pace to lead the NFL in scoring (34.3 points per game) while simultaneously reaching new lows for defensive ineptitude (Seattle is 28thth in points allowed, and has given up 2,897 passing yards through its first eight games, <a href="https://twitter.com/BradyHenderson/status/1326265208541765637">more than any other team has given up</a> through <em>nine</em> games). But thanks to their offensive efficiency and red zone prowess, the Seahawks have mostly forgotten that kicker Jason Myers is even on the team: The veteran <em>attempted</em> just two field goals in the team’s first five games. His pace has picked up a tad in the past three weeks―he’s now at seven field goal attempts in eight games (he’s hit them all)―but I’ll admit that I had to google “Seahawks kicker” because I couldn’t remember who it was. I live in Seattle. </p>
<p id="gArwwb">Getting back to Wilson for a second, though, what the 31-year-old signal-caller has done thus far stacks up well to a few other historic passing performances. With <a href="https://stathead.com/football/pgl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&order_by_asc=0&order_by=pass_td&year_min=1970&year_max=2020&game_type=R&ccomp%5B2%5D=gt&cstat%5B2%5D=pass_td&positions%5B%5D=qb&positions%5B%5D=rb&positions%5B%5D=wr&positions%5B%5D=te&positions%5B%5D=e&positions%5B%5D=t&positions%5B%5D=g&positions%5B%5D=c&positions%5B%5D=ol&positions%5B%5D=dt&positions%5B%5D=de&positions%5B%5D=dl&positions%5B%5D=ilb&positions%5B%5D=olb&positions%5B%5D=lb&positions%5B%5D=cb&positions%5B%5D=s&positions%5B%5D=db&positions%5B%5D=k&positions%5B%5D=p&age_min=0&age_max=99&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&week_num_min=1&week_num_max=9&season_start=1&season_end=-1">28 touchdowns on the year</a>, Wilson sits at fourth on the list for most passing TDs through the first nine weeks of a season, trailing Tom Brady (who had 33 touchdowns through nine weeks in 2007!!), Patrick Mahomes (29, in 2018), and Peyton Manning (29, in 2013). But with eight games to go, Wilson’s still on pace (56 touchdowns) to beat Manning’s all-time record for single-season passing touchdowns (55, in 2013). Aaron Rodgers, who has 24 touchdowns in eight games (a 48-touchdown pace) isn’t far behind, nor is Patrick Mahomes (25 touchdowns in nine games, a 44-score pace). </p>
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<p id="SWBVP1"><br>And while Wilson is on a historic touchdown-passing pace, what’s interesting about the NFL’s leaguewide scoring boom is that instead of seeing a few massive outlying teams or players propping up the rest of the league’s numbers, it feels like just about everyone is getting in on the action this year. That’s especially true at the receiver position: Despite the record numbers the league has produced in the passing game (NFL pass catchers are averaging a record 23.2 receptions per game, a record 260.2 yards per game, and a record 1.8 touchdowns per game), Stefon Diggs’s <a href="https://stathead.com/football/pgl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&order_by_asc=0&order_by=rec_yds&year_min=1970&year_max=2020&game_type=R&ccomp%5B2%5D=gt&cstat%5B2%5D=rec_yds&positions%5B%5D=qb&positions%5B%5D=rb&positions%5B%5D=wr&positions%5B%5D=te&positions%5B%5D=e&positions%5B%5D=t&positions%5B%5D=g&positions%5B%5D=c&positions%5B%5D=ol&positions%5B%5D=dt&positions%5B%5D=de&positions%5B%5D=dl&positions%5B%5D=ilb&positions%5B%5D=olb&positions%5B%5D=lb&positions%5B%5D=cb&positions%5B%5D=s&positions%5B%5D=db&positions%5B%5D=k&positions%5B%5D=p&age_min=0&age_max=99&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&week_num_min=1&week_num_max=9&season_start=1&season_end=-1">league-high 813 receiving yards</a> ranks just 61st all time through the first nine weeks of the season. <a href="https://stathead.com/football/pgl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&order_by_asc=0&order_by=rec_td&year_min=1970&year_max=2020&game_type=R&positions%5B%5D=qb&positions%5B%5D=rb&positions%5B%5D=wr&positions%5B%5D=te&positions%5B%5D=e&positions%5B%5D=t&positions%5B%5D=g&positions%5B%5D=c&positions%5B%5D=ol&positions%5B%5D=dt&positions%5B%5D=de&positions%5B%5D=dl&positions%5B%5D=ilb&positions%5B%5D=olb&positions%5B%5D=lb&positions%5B%5D=cb&positions%5B%5D=s&positions%5B%5D=db&positions%5B%5D=k&positions%5B%5D=p&age_min=0&age_max=99&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&week_num_min=1&week_num_max=9&season_start=1&season_end=-1">Tyreek Hill’s nine receiving touchdowns</a> is tied for 16th in that stretch. With teams trotting out more three-receiver sets, quarterbacks are spreading the ball around and getting two, three, or sometimes four or more receivers involved. And a handful of rookie pass catchers have benefited from the distribution of booty, including Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson, whose 627 yards ranks <a href="https://stathead.com/football/pgl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&order_by_asc=0&order_by=rec_yds&year_min=1970&year_max=2020&game_type=R&career_game_num_min=1&career_game_num_max=9&ccomp%5B1%5D=gt&cstat%5B1%5D=rec_yds&positions%5B%5D=qb&positions%5B%5D=rb&positions%5B%5D=wr&positions%5B%5D=te&positions%5B%5D=e&positions%5B%5D=t&positions%5B%5D=g&positions%5B%5D=c&positions%5B%5D=ol&positions%5B%5D=dt&positions%5B%5D=de&positions%5B%5D=dl&positions%5B%5D=ilb&positions%5B%5D=olb&positions%5B%5D=lb&positions%5B%5D=cb&positions%5B%5D=s&positions%5B%5D=db&positions%5B%5D=k&positions%5B%5D=p&age_min=0&age_max=99&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&week_num_min=1&week_num_max=9&season_start=1&season_end=-1">fifth among all first-year players in their first nine games</a> since the merger. Cowboys receiver CeeDee Lamb (585 yards) is tied for 10th on that list, while the Bengals’ Tee Higgins (488) and Broncos’ Jerry Juedy (484) both rank inside the top 50 for most yards in a player’s first nine games.</p>
<p id="3UC9VX">The league’s passing game contributors aren’t alone in their success this year, either. NFL rushing attacks are having a renaissance this year, with teams averaging 117.6 yards per game on the ground through nine weeks―on pace to <a href="https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/NFL/rushing.htm">finish as the second-highest total in the past 20 years</a> (and the highest since 2003). The league’s teams are averaging <a href="https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/NFL/scoring.htm">1.03 rushing touchdowns per game</a> this year, on pace to be the best mark since the 1979 season, and averaging 4.4 yards per carry (also on pace for an all-time record). Of course, quarterbacks are a big part of this rushing boom, too―with guys like Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, Cam Newton, Josh Allen, and Carson Wentz all picking up yards and scoring touchdowns with their legs. </p>
<p class="c-end-para" id="Vz1EHT">Put it all together, and just about every week has produced a beautiful display of offensive fireworks. And while scoring numbers and overall offensive production could dip slightly as the season goes on, the weather gets worse, and injuries (and possibly COVID cases) mount, there’s little reason to believe the league’s end-of-year offensive numbers won’t be historic. The big question, of course, is whether this offensive explosion is a one-off outlier or a sign of things to come. The NFL will have a big decision to make on whether it wants to go back to enforcing ticky-tack or less obvious penalties at a higher rate in 2021 and beyond, and when fans get back into the stands, offenses may see their numbers on the road marginally decline. But for now, I’m just going to enjoy the show, because for those of us who like watching high-scoring, back-and-forth barn burners each and every week, the 2020 season is certainly delivering. </p>
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https://www.theringer.com/2020/11/12/21561876/nfl-scoring-boom-offenseDanny Kelly2020-11-12T06:20:00-05:002020-11-12T06:20:00-05:00Which NFL Breakout Performances Are Here to Stay?
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<p>Many players have ascended to new levels of success in 2020. Which ones will be long-term stars?</p> <aside id="KfkBCD"><div data-anthem-component="readmore" data-anthem-component-data='{"stories":[{"title":"Everything You Need to Know at the NFL’s 2020 Midseason Point","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2020/11/12/21562008/everything-you-need-to-know-at-the-nfls-2020-midseason-point"}]}'></div></aside><p id="7VR9aO">Each year in the NFL, there are players whose star begins to shine so bright that it forces observers to take note. Some break through for the first time, while others reclaim the potential they had earlier in their career. Whatever the case may be, these breakthroughs are always exciting and can prove integral to the success of their respective squads.</p>
<p id="CC8NFT">With half of the 2020 NFL regular season in the books, there have been plenty of surprises and several breakthrough performances. Below, we take a look at some of those players who have stood out through the first half of the year, and break down why their performances might be sustainable moving forward.</p>
<aside id="D9dOQ5"><div data-anthem-component="readmore" data-anthem-component-data='{"stories":[{"title":"The NFL Has Never Seen an Offensive Boom Like This","url":"https://www.theringer.com/2020/11/12/21561876/nfl-scoring-boom-offense"},{"title":"Which Single-Season NFL Records Are Poised to Fall in 2020?","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2020/11/12/21561725/single-season-records-midseason-russell-wilson-patrick-mahomes"},{"title":"The NFL’s COVID-19 Tightrope Act Is Facing Another Stress Test","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2020/11/12/21561962/nfl-midseason-covid-playoff-super-bowl"}]}'></div></aside><h4 id="AVFqSG">Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers</h4>
<p id="wFQH1U">Herbert has been tremendous since taking over the Chargers starting job in Week 2 and he has emerged as a <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2020/11/9/21556587/midseason-nfl-awards-mvp-russell-wilson-alvin-kamara">strong Rookie of the Year candidate</a>. As <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2020/11/8/21555907/justin-herbert-chargers-lose-raiders-last-second"><em>The Ringer</em>’s Riley McAtee noted</a> after Los Angeles’s gutting defeat to the Raiders last week, Herbert has been historically efficient for a first-year quarterback. Tyrod Taylor’s presence made it seem unlikely that Herbert would see much of the field for the Chargers in his rookie season, but the former Oregon star hasn’t looked back since being pressed into starting duty.</p>
<p id="bz54Es">Part of the reason Herbert’s play has been so surprising is that he’s succeeding under pressure, which was not something he did well during his final season at Oregon.<a href="https://www.pff.com/news/college-justin-herbert-worth-risk-first-round-2020-nfl-draft"> According to Pro Football Focus</a>, Herbert ranked 124th out of 129 qualified FBS quarterbacks in negatively graded play under pressure during the 2019-20 collegiate season. Seven games into his NFL career, Herbert <a href="https://premium.pff.com/nfl/positions/passing/under_pressure?position=QB&season=2020&week=1%2C2%2C3%2C4%2C5%2C6%2C7%2C8%2C9%2C10%2C11%2C12%2C13%2C14%2C15%2C16%2C17&customMinimum=0&minimum=50%25">ranks</a> third among qualified passers in completion rate under pressure (59 percent), fifth in adjusted completion rate under pressure (74.0), and first in passer rating under pressure (101.6). This was the area that gave many draft pundits the most pause when discussing Herbert’s potential, and he’s stunningly curbed those issues.</p>
<p id="Z7HEXF">Passing numbers from a clean pocket, though, are more stable and more likely to reveal how a quarterback will perform over time. Through seven games, Herbert is 21st in completion rate (71.0), 17th in adjusted completion rate (79.4) and 18th in passer rating (106.1) when not under pressure, <a href="https://premium.pff.com/nfl/positions/passing/kept_clean?position=QB&season=2020&week=1%2C2%2C3%2C4%2C5%2C6%2C7%2C8%2C9%2C10%2C11%2C12%2C13%2C14%2C15%2C16%2C17&customMinimum=0&minimum=50%25">according to</a> PFF. Those numbers are near the middle of the pack, but are undoubtedly a solid foundation for Herbert to build on. Herbert has notched a completion rate that is 4.4 points higher than expected (tied for fourth), despite attempting tight-window throws on 18.6 percent of his attempts (eighth), <a href="https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#completionPercentageAboveExpectation">per</a> Next Gen Stats. His overall adjusted completion rate (77.8) ranks 12th in the NFL.</p>
<p id="5DU5lc">The initial returns suggest that Herbert’s breakout campaign is just the beginning of what should be a productive career. The next step: winning.</p>
<h4 id="mFRZJt">Jeffery Simmons, DL , Tennessee Titans</h4>
<p id="Rsva9J">The Titans selected Simmons 19th overall in the 2019 NFL draft. As a rookie, he missed seven games as he recovered from a torn ACL that he <a href="https://twitter.com/GrindSimmons94/status/1095424939287609345?s=20">suffered</a> after his final season at Mississippi State, but he appeared in nine games (seven starts), and made an impact as Tennessee improbably reached the AFC championship game. Simmons is fully healthy this season and has taken his game up another level to emerge as one of the NFL’s most talented interior linemen.</p>
<p id="l9ktfe">In seven starts, Simmons has <a href="https://premium.pff.com/nfl/positions/defense/summary?position=DI&season=2020&week=1%2C2%2C3%2C4%2C5%2C6%2C7%2C8%2C9%2C10%2C11%2C12%2C13%2C14%2C15%2C16%2C17">notched</a> 21 quarterback pressures and two sacks, plus leads all defensive tackles in<a href="https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29939464/2020-nfl-pass-rushing-run-stopping-blocking-leaderboard-win-rate-rankings#rbwrplayers"> ESPN</a>’s run-stop win rate—despite <a href="https://twitter.com/SethWalder/status/1324559741117468673/photo/1">drawing</a> double teams at a high clip.</p>
<p id="NX8hHP">He’s made impact plays in several of Tennessee’s victories this season, including a<a href="https://twitter.com/KyleAMadson/status/1305709569272721409?s=20"> monstrous fourth-and-goal stop</a> against the Broncos in Week 1, a forced fumble (<a href="https://twitter.com/NFL/status/1325531746482352128?s=20">recovered</a> by Desmond King for a touchdown) against the Bears, and a fumble recovery also against the Bears last week. Simmons’s improvement has made him a force and a crucial presence in helping the Titans remain a contender this year.</p>
<h4 id="iUrgT7">Fred Warner, LB, 49ers</h4>
<p id="YMhyIV">Warner doesn’t have the national recognition he likely deserves, although his teammates, opposing players and <a href="https://twitter.com/Joe_Fann/status/1321961436285865986?s=20">coaches</a> frequently emphasize the third-year middle linebacker’s talents.</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">"You're the best and everybody knows it. You should be All Pro"<br><br>We agree Aaron. <br><br>Full <a href="https://twitter.com/fred_warner?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Fred_Warner</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/Cisco?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Cisco</a> Mic'd Up </p>— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) <a href="https://twitter.com/49ers/status/1324899592790437888?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 7, 2020</a>
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<p id="3oGDFv">Warner has been outstanding this season for a Niners defense that’s lost many of its past key contributors. He’s one of the league’s best coverage linebackers—opposing quarterbacks <a href="https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WarnFr00.htm#detailed_defense::none">have</a> a passer rating of 50.4 when targeting him this year—and is just as capable as a run defender. Warner is ninth in the league with 74 total tackles and his 84.2 player grade ranks second among linebackers (min. 502 snaps), <a href="https://premium.pff.com/nfl/positions/defense/summary?position=LB&season=2020&week=1%2C2%2C3%2C4%2C5%2C6%2C7%2C8%2C9%2C10%2C11%2C12%2C13%2C14%2C15%2C16%2C17&customMinimum=0&minimum=80%25">according to</a> PFF.</p>
<h4 id="Qh1MCk">Brian Burns, Edge, Panthers</h4>
<p id="MEMQA4">Brain Burns has made the Year 2 leap. The 2019 first-round pick was productive as a rookie last year, recording 7.5 sacks and making five starts. But this season, he’s been consistently dominant, stressing opposing offensive lines and passers with his pass-rushing talents. His<a href="https://twitter.com/smccloverjr/status/1324343641243078658?s=20"> spin move</a> has been especially <a href="https://twitter.com/OnePantherPlace/status/1325521748540993539?s=20">effective</a>, but he’s <a href="https://twitter.com/BenjaminSolak/status/1310730262943338497?s=20">shown</a> that he can generate pressure without it, too.</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Brian Burns has been one of the most under appreciated players in 2020 thus far. Dominating presence on the Panthers D-Line.<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/panthers?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#panthers</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/CARvsNO?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#CARvsNO</a> <a href="https://t.co/K1G8VCSp4i">pic.twitter.com/K1G8VCSp4i</a></p>— Daniel Alameda (@DanielAlameda11) <a href="https://twitter.com/DanielAlameda11/status/1320443999639855104?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 25, 2020</a>
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<p id="GQQ5Hh">Burns has been <a href="https://premium.pff.com/nfl/players/brian-burns/44522/defense/summary?season=2020&weekGroup=REGPO">disruptive</a>. He’s generated three forced fumbles, 31 pressures, and 11 quarterback hits. He was a major reason why the Panthers nearly upset the Chiefs last week, as Burns knocked down Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes three times and pressured him just as many. First-year coach Matt Rhule was high on Burns upon joining Carolina, and has made him a key piece in his talented defensive line. Burns ranks fifth among defensive ends and outside linebackers in <a href="https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29939464/2020-nfl-pass-rushing-run-stopping-blocking-leaderboard-win-rate-rankings#rbwrplayers">ESPN</a>’s run-stop win rate (32 percent) and fourth in pass-rush win rate (27 percent).</p>
<p id="NBeo38">The game appears to have <a href="https://twitter.com/TheScoutAcademy/status/1305959653780713475?s=20">slowed down</a> tremendously for Burns. The twitchy edge defender might not have the flashiest stats or play for a title contender, but he’s cemented himself as a dominant player off the edge. </p>
<h4 id="1iP49Y">James Robinson, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars</h4>
<p id="tYZO62">At 805 total yards from scrimmage, Robinson enters the halfway point <a href="https://twitter.com/FieldYates/status/1326209001386860545?s=20">on pace</a> to shatter the record for scrimmage yards (1,473) by an undrafted rookie. The Jaguars haven’t had much to celebrate this season, but Robinson’s ascension has been noteworthy. He’s sixth in the NFL in rushing (580 yards), averaging 4.4 yards per carry behind an offensive line that’s a <a href="https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/offensive-line/2020">middling</a> run-blocking unit. Robinson is averaging only 1.9 yards before contact per carry (tied for 36th among qualified ball carriers), <a href="https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2020/rushing_advanced.htm#advanced_rushing::11">per</a> Pro Football Reference, but he’s 11th in yards after contact (2.5).</p>
<p id="BbAqjw">Robinson’s burst is impressive, and it’s been useful both in working through holes to get upfield and beating linebackers along the perimeter as a receiver, despite lacking elite straight-line speed. Robinson has a skill set that suggests he should continue to be productive. <a href="https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2020/rushing_advanced.htm#advanced_rushing::15">Per</a> Pro Football Reference, Robinson is tied for 21st in attempts per broken tackle (13.2). If Jacksonville can ever improve its offensive line and passing game, Robinson should thrive.</p>
<h4 id="l3OeUM">Emmanuel Ogbah, DL, Miami Dolphins</h4>
<p id="jA0YvE">Ogbah has been a crucial part of the Dolphins’ surprising start. The fifth-year defensive end has settled in nicely with Brian Flores’s squad, posting a career-high seven sacks, tied for fourth most in the NFL and the <a href="https://twitter.com/schadjoe/status/1326254078704357378?s=20">most</a> ever by a Miami player in their first eight games with the club. Ogbah has been the Dolphins’ most disruptive lineman, generating 34 <a href="https://premium.pff.com/nfl/positions/defense/summary?position=ED&season=2020&week=1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17">pressures</a>, three forced fumbles, and deflected three passes.</p>
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<p lang="fr" dir="ltr"> Emmanuel Ogbah force un fumble de Kyler Murray sur ce sack, Shaq Lawson récupère et marque un TD ! <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/FinsUp?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#FinsUp</a><br><br> <a href="https://twitter.com/beinsports_FR?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@beinsports_FR</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/nflextra?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#nflextra</a><br> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NFLGamePass?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NFLGamePass</a> <a href="https://t.co/BVrrPH1gBZ">pic.twitter.com/BVrrPH1gBZ</a></p>— NFL France (@NFLFrance) <a href="https://twitter.com/NFLFrance/status/1325552843462500361?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 8, 2020</a>
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<p id="WJgRPa">The former second-round pick has been a notable catalyst for a defense <a href="https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/team-defense/2020">ranked</a> eighth in Football Outsiders’s pass defense DVOA.</p>
<h4 id="fSvsFY">Travis Fulgham, WR, Philadelphia Eagles</h4>
<p id="Fs0s76">The Eagles offense has been abysmal and is dealing with a litany of injuries that hamstrung the unit before the year even started. But Fulgham has emerged as an intriguing piece within Philadelphia’s barren receiving corps.</p>
<p id="uJ7P1d">Fulgham—a 2019 sixth-round pick who appeared in just three games (and recorded no catches) for the Lions last season—has been targeted 44 times this year. He’s made 29 catches for 435 yards and four touchdowns, recording just one drop. He’s averaging 87.0 receiving yards per game, which ranks sixth in the league.</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Ladies and gentlemen, his name is Travis Fulgham.<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/PHIvsSF?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#PHIvsSF</a> | <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/FlyEaglesFly?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#FlyEaglesFly</a><br><br> : NBC <a href="https://t.co/CmuohIejHF">pic.twitter.com/CmuohIejHF</a></p>— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) <a href="https://twitter.com/Eagles/status/1312951025377128448?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 5, 2020</a>
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<p id="1tvsR0">Despite quarterback Carson Wentz’s struggles, Fulgham has shined. He enters the week<a href="https://premium.pff.com/nfl/positions/receiving/summary?position=WR&season=2020&week=1%2C2%2C3%2C4%2C5%2C6%2C7%2C8%2C9%2C10%2C11%2C12%2C13%2C14%2C15%2C16%2C17"> </a>tied for seventh in PFF’s receiving grades (86.0). The former Old Dominion wideout is a late bloomer at 25 years old, but will remain a fixture within Philadelphia’s passing game through the rest of the year, and potentially beyond.</p>
<h4 id="l02koS">Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings</h4>
<p id="WyPHM9">Jefferson has already established himself as one of the NFL’s best receivers. The former LSU speedster and first-round pick has recorded 34 catches for 627 yards (15th), three touchdowns, and just one drop. His 18.4 yards per catch ranks second in the league.</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Justin Jefferson cooks Kendall Sheffield on the double move — HELLO<br><br>Jefferson leads all receivers in <a href="https://twitter.com/PFF?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@PFF</a> grade (90.7) and yards per route run (3.20) through Week 6. <a href="https://t.co/k68NDnieYB">pic.twitter.com/k68NDnieYB</a></p>— Austin Gayle (@PFF_AustinGayle) <a href="https://twitter.com/PFF_AustinGayle/status/1318219607589748736?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 19, 2020</a>
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<p id="HnRYAt">Jefferson has been a great replacement for Stefon Diggs, and Minnesota has used him<a href="https://twitter.com/JReidNFL/status/1316404573054152706?s=20"> similarly to how they used Diggs</a> within their offense. Jefferson has similar route-running ability and knack for routinely getting behind defenses. He’s proved that he’s dangerous after the catch, too, <a href="https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/receiving#avgYAC">ranking</a> ninth in yards after catch per reception (6.6). If his career path is any similar to Diggs, then it’s safe to assume that his production will last well beyond his rookie campaign.</p>
<h4 id="pk3W3h">Jessie Bates III, S, Cincinnati Bengals</h4>
<p id="xUpL9x">Bates is a third-year starter for Cincinnati, and he has immediately contributed after being selected in the second round of the 2018 draft out of Wake Forest. He was a productive player in his first two years, but he appears to have taken a leap in the Bengals defense this season. His instincts have always been good, but he’s made improvements as a pass defender and they’re showing up tangibly. The rangy safety is very reliable in pass coverage, boasting a 90.5 coverage grade—the highest mark in <a href="https://premium.pff.com/nfl/positions/defense/summary?position=S&season=2020&week=1%2C2%2C3%2C4%2C5%2C6%2C7%2C8%2C9%2C10%2C11%2C12%2C13%2C14%2C15%2C16%2C17&customMinimum=0&minimum=50%25">PFF’s</a> database this year.</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Jessie Bates is having as good of a 2020 season as any safety in the NFL <a href="https://t.co/nP8S4qD6H5">pic.twitter.com/nP8S4qD6H5</a></p>— Trevor Sikkema (@TampaBayTre) <a href="https://twitter.com/TampaBayTre/status/1322967578722131968?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 1, 2020</a>
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<p id="Azs122">Opposing quarterbacks have <a href="https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BateJe00.htm#detailed_defense::none">completed</a> just 9 of 23 (39.1 percent) throws when targeting him for 83 yards—an average of 9.2 yards per completion and a combined passer rating of 13.5. The average depth of targets when throwing at Bates has dropped from 10.9 to 8.3 this season. He has a great nose for the ball and helps stuff plays where he’s not targeted. He’s notched 57 total tackles (37 solo), 10 pass deflections, and two interceptions. The Bengals defense isn’t much to write home about, but Bates has played at a high level that merits attention.</p>
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https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2020/11/12/21561812/breakout-performances-justin-herbert-james-robinsonuntitledKaelen Jones2020-11-12T06:10:00-05:002020-11-12T06:10:00-05:00Which Single-Season NFL Records Are Poised to Fall in 2020?
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<p>Could Russell Wilson move past Peyton Manning on the passing touchdowns list? Can Ryan Tannehill complete the most clutch season ever? And could one punter break a mark that’s stood for 80 years?</p> <aside id="kzD0mm"><div data-anthem-component="readmore" data-anthem-component-data='{"stories":[{"title":"Everything You Need to Know at the NFL’s 2020 Midseason Point","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2020/11/12/21562008/everything-you-need-to-know-at-the-nfls-2020-midseason-point"}]}'></div></aside><p id="SXP9Jj">This NFL season has looked like no other. That’s not just because the coronavirus pandemic has upended the world as we know it and limited fan attendance at games. The on-field product has been wildly different as well.</p>
<p id="GZZft6">This season will be the highest scoring in league history—<a href="https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/NFL/">by far</a>. Yardage is up, turnovers are down, <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2020/11/11/21559877/pity-the-poor-punter-nfl-2020">punting is going extinct</a>, and defenses are struggling. Name an offensive stat, and it’s likely at or near all-time highs. This boost in offensive efficiency has also set many players on course to break long-held records. That’s especially true among quarterbacks. As we head into Week 10, let’s look at eight single-season records that could soon be broken.</p>
<h3 id="l8Eb7S">Passing Touchdowns</h3>
<p id="5SHPTL"><strong>Current record holder: </strong>Peyton Manning (55, 2013)<br><strong>2020 contender:</strong> Russell Wilson (28, on pace for 56)</p>
<p id="gtXykU">Wilson is on pace to break this record, but he’ll need some luck to get over the finish line. His current touchdown percentage of 9.4 percent is astronomically high. When Manning set this record in the 2013 season, his touchdown percentage was 8.3. That means Wilson doesn’t have raw volume to fall back on—he’ll need to maintain an unbelievably high level of efficiency to sniff Manning’s mark.</p>
<div class="c-float-left"><aside id="KYDpfH"><div data-anthem-component="readmore" data-anthem-component-data='{"stories":[{"title":"The 2020 Midseason Fantasy Football Awards","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2020/11/11/21559599/2020-midseason-fantasy-football-awards-travis-kelce-davante-adams-kyler-murray"},{"title":"The Fatal Flaws That Could Sink the NFL’s Top Contenders","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2020/11/11/21559211/fatal-flaws-nfl-contenders"},{"title":"The NFL’s COVID-19 Tightrope Act Is Facing Another Stress Test","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2020/11/12/21561962/nfl-midseason-covid-playoff-super-bowl"}]}'></div></aside></div>
<p id="kUBkUN">Plus, Wilson needs to keep up his prolific red zone pace. The Seahawks have just eight rushing touchdowns this year. Six of those have come from the red zone, while Wilson has 19 passing touchdowns from the same part of the field. For Wilson to break the record, he’ll need to continue to pass the ball into the end zone when Seattle gets close to the goal line. And if Wilson scores touchdowns with his feet, as he’s done once this year, he’ll be hurting his chances when it comes to moving past Manning on the single-season list.</p>
<p id="lMxggT">This is the most prominent record that is up for grabs. Since Dan Marino threw 48 touchdown passes in 1984, only two people have held this mark: Manning and Tom Brady. Wilson setting a new high would put him among the all-time greats. But he has no room for error.</p>
<h3 id="H1nSS0">Interception Percentage</h3>
<p id="xKnIfv"><strong>Current record holder: </strong>Aaron Rodgers (0.3 percent, 2018)<br><strong>2020 contender:</strong> Patrick Mahomes (0.3 percent)</p>
<p id="ZW62mK">Technically, Mahomes has the lead on Rodgers here. He’s thrown one pick on 329 attempts for an interception rate of 0.30 percent. In 2018, Rodgers threw two interceptions on 597 attempts for an interception rate of 0.34 percent. The goal for Mahomes is simple: He needs to either not throw another interception or throw at least 269 more passes while recording just one additional pick. If he throws three interceptions this season, his chances of breaking this mark are toast.</p>
<p id="7o9oIM">Mahomes’s position is precarious. One tipped pass or miscommunication with a receiver could end his bid for the record. And Mahomes has already benefited from significant luck when it comes to picks this season. In a <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2020/10/5/21503623/patrick-mahomes-bad-game-good-stat-line-patriots-chiefs">Week 4 win against the Patriots</a>, he had <em>three</em> different would-be interceptions fall through the hands of defenders.</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Yes, Patrick Mahomes has 25 TDs 1 INT.<br><br>But the 1 INT isn't a fair reflection of his turnover-worthy plays.<br><br>He's behind only Carson Wentz (7)+Fitzmagic (6) in dropped INTs by the defense this szn. <br><br>I'm not saying he sucks, he's still incredible, but the 1 INT stat is a mirage</p>— Sam Monson (@PFF_Sam) <a href="https://twitter.com/PFF_Sam/status/1326559193692827657?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 11, 2020</a>
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<p id="hCazys">Mahomes is the most talented passer in the league, but he’s hardly conservative with his throws. Given Mahomes’s aggressive style of play, I’d bet on Rodgers retaining his spot atop this leaderboard. </p>
<h3 id="n1oAR7">Passer Rating</h3>
<p id="kEnows"><strong>Current record holder: </strong>Aaron Rodgers (122.5, 2011)<br><strong>2020 contenders:</strong> Aaron Rodgers (117.5), Russell Wilson (117.1), Patrick Mahomes (115.9)</p>
<p id="sNEA0O">Passer rating is a very flawed stat—it doesn’t account for sacks, for example—but it’s still something fans and players alike use to measure quarterback performance. Rodgers’s 2011 MVP season stands as the gold standard in this metric, as he put up astronomical touchdown and yardage numbers while leading Green Bay to a 15-1 record that year. </p>
<p id="tHfjaU">It would take an enormous effort for this mark to fall in 2020. Rodgers himself is the closest to the record, as he’s exactly five points away from his career high. But even if Rodgers had thrown four additional touchdowns through Week 9—hypothetically giving him 28 instead of 24—his passer rating would still sit at only 122.2, leaving him short of his 2011 figure. Five points may not look like much, but it’s hard to get passer rating to budge much when the numbers are this high.</p>
<p id="TJHTvo">Still, three players are within striking distance. If Rodgers, Wilson, and Mahomes all continue on their current paces, they’d finish tied for fourth, tied for seventh, and 10th, respectively, on the all-time list. Could one of them go on a historic run in the second half of this season to claim the passer rating crown? It’s not terribly likely—but it’s not impossible either.</p>
<h3 id="fBzLdY">Completion Percentage</h3>
<p id="UraEvu"><strong>Current record holder: </strong>Drew Brees (74.4 percent, 2018)<br><strong>2020 contender:</strong> Drew Brees (74.0 percent)</p>
<p id="naNj8L">Brees remains the completion percentage king. He owns the three best seasons ever in this stat, and if he continues at this pace he’ll own the top four. (This season would come in third.) </p>
<p id="Np7vwc">But lauding Brees for his completion percentage would be like celebrating DeAndre Jordan for leading the NBA in field goal percentage so many times when all the Clippers asked him to do was dunk. While Brees is one of the most accurate and accomplished quarterbacks in NFL history, he’s currently benefiting from a dink-and-dunk offense that <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2020/9/24/21452616/drew-brees-arm-strength-new-orleans-saints">rarely requires him to push the ball downfield</a>. Per Pro Football Reference, Brees’s average pass this season has traveled just 5.5 yards downfield, down from 6.4 yards in 2019 and 7.1 in 2018. That’s by far the <a href="https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2020/passing_advanced.htm">lowest mark in the league</a>, a full 0.8 yards less than the nearest player (Jimmy Garoppolo). For context, the <a href="https://twitter.com/robertmays/status/1051879822572576768">typically checkdown-oriented Derek Carr</a> is averaging 7.6 intended air yards per attempt. </p>
<p id="BijtwH">Next Gen Stats gives Brees the highest expected completion percentage in the league (70.8), further indicating that he is making very few difficult throws. To his credit, he’s exceeding that expected mark by 3.2 percentage points, and it certainly seems as if this pace is sustainable. Still, it’s not <em>that</em> impressive.</p>
<aside id="n3n2gM"><div data-anthem-component="readmore" data-anthem-component-data='{"stories":[{"title":"The NFL Has Never Seen an Offensive Boom Like This","url":"https://www.theringer.com/2020/11/12/21561876/nfl-scoring-boom-offense"},{"title":"Which NFL Breakout Performances Are Here to Stay?","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2020/11/12/21561812/breakout-performances-justin-herbert-james-robinsonuntitled"}]}'></div></aside><h3 id="dyNNzR">Game-Winning Drives</h3>
<p id="CfK9a8"><strong>Current record holder: </strong>Matthew Stafford (eight, 2016)<br><strong>2020 contender:</strong> Ryan Tannehill (four, on pace for eight)</p>
<p id="LdIkYk">The difference between the Titans and the league’s other teams with six-plus wins is that Tennessee has played in almost exclusively close games. The Titans have been in six one-score games and are 5-1 in those contests. That’s an incredible run of luck—and clutch play from Tannehill. </p>
<p id="ErulsZ">Tannehill has picked off right where he left off last season, putting together another efficient season in this offense. He ranks ninth in QBR, ninth in Pro Football Focus grade, and third in adjusted net yards per attempt. And Tennessee consistently relies on him in critical moments. Last season, Tannehill recorded three game-winning drives despite making only 10 starts. That included one from a Week 10 matchup against the Chiefs, in which the Titans got the ball down 32-27 with 1:21 left on the clock and Tannehill marched down the field in just four plays (picking up 18 yards with his legs and 43 yards with his arm):</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">THE TITANS⁉️<br><br>Ryan Tannehill marches down the field for a game-winning touchdown to beat the Chiefs<a href="https://t.co/HtzuDtiOmw">pic.twitter.com/HtzuDtiOmw</a></p>— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) <a href="https://twitter.com/BleacherReport/status/1193637860181782528?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 10, 2019</a>
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<p id="1N89cv">This season, Tannehill’s heroics haven’t been as memorable. He’s led Tennessee on game-winning drives against the Broncos, Jaguars, Vikings, and Texans. Now the Titans’ schedule toughens up: They have two games remaining against the Colts, one game remaining against the Ravens, and one game left against the Packers. </p>
<p id="7q3csO">This will be a tough record to break, as it requires the Titans to get into sticky-but-not-too-sticky situations <em>and</em> Tannehill to successfully bail the team out. To eclipse Stafford’s 2016 mark, Tannehill needs to lead game-winning drives in five of Tennessee’s final eight games.</p>
<h3 id="Edj49b">Longest Field Goal</h3>
<p id="VbFWsF"><strong>Current record holder: </strong>Matt Prater (64 yards, 2013)<br><strong>2020 contender:</strong> Joey Slye</p>
<p id="lIqBJQ">This isn’t a single-season record, but it’s worth highlighting nonetheless. Panthers kicker Joey Slye has had multiple attempts this year to make the longest field goal in league history. He attempted a 67-yarder in Week 9 that would have lifted the Panthers over the Chiefs; while he had plenty of distance, Slye missed it wide right. Maybe that was an overcorrection for his 65-yard attempt in Week 7; that was on line, but came up <em>just</em> short:</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">How close was Joey Slye to making that 65-yard FG.<br><br>THAT close. <a href="https://t.co/lwTMiYOQLx">pic.twitter.com/lwTMiYOQLx</a></p>— Edgar Salmingo, Jr. ✌️ (@PanthersAnalyst) <a href="https://twitter.com/PanthersAnalyst/status/1320450827564339200?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 25, 2020</a>
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<p id="2xyOGn">Slye has the leg for this. He’s <a href="https://twitter.com/MySportsUpdate/status/1167222899750637580">drilled long kicks before</a>, and has <a href="https://twitter.com/joshkleinrules/status/1169284404491051008">hit 70-yarders in practice</a>. Plus, Carolina head coach Matt Rhule has shown that he trusts Slye with long attempts. Now it’s just a question of opportunity and luck. The Panthers have just one more dome game this season (when they travel to Minneapolis in Week 12), and their Week 14 game against the Broncos takes place in Carolina instead of in the thin Denver air. Still, if the wind blows the right way, Slye has the potential to break Prater’s record.</p>
<h3 id="Ycb3F9">Yards Per Punt</h3>
<p id="U24OFt"><strong>Current record holder: </strong>Sammy Baugh (51.4, 1940)<br><strong>2020 contender:</strong> Jack Fox (52.8)</p>
<p id="6Yz3xU">Baugh led the league in punt average for four consecutive seasons from 1940 to 1943. Considering that he also played quarterback and defensive back, Baugh is arguably the greatest all-around football player ever. It’ll be especially difficult for Fox—or anyone—to break this 80-year-old record.</p>
<p id="bafWWG">Of course, Baugh played an almost completely different sport than the one Fox is playing. He frequently punted well before fourth down—sometimes as early as first down—using what was known as the <a href="https://www.si.com/nfl/2013/11/14/sammy-baugh-1943">quick kick strategy of the day</a>. His goal was to flip field position, and sometimes he punted the ball more than 70 yards. He even had a couple of punts that eclipsed 80 yards.</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">In 1943, Slingin’ Sammy Baugh led the <a href="https://twitter.com/NFL?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@NFL</a> in passing, punting and interceptions. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NFLHistory?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NFLHistory</a> <a href="https://t.co/ruKdXo6FJg">pic.twitter.com/ruKdXo6FJg</a></p>— NFL Throwback (@nflthrowback) <a href="https://twitter.com/nflthrowback/status/977997513008525312?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 25, 2018</a>
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<p id="pMUcjl">Modern punters don’t have the same goals, and they certainly don’t boot the ball before fourth down (though the Jets offense can be so bad that Adam Gase may want to consider it). They’re tasked with pinning opposing offenses deep, not kicking the ball as far as they can. When Fox is asked to punt from around midfield, his average will inevitably take a hit.</p>
<p id="aWVQPg">So far, Fox’s punting opportunities have boosted his average. Of <a href="https://stathead.com/football/play_finder.cgi?request=1&match=summary_all&sb=0&order_by_asc=0&order_by=yards&player_id_hint=Jack+Fox&player_id_select=Jack+Fox&player_id=FoxxJa01&year_min=2020&year_max=2020&game_type=R&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&week_num_min=0&week_num_max=99&quarter%5B%5D=1&quarter%5B%5D=2&quarter%5B%5D=3&quarter%5B%5D=4&quarter%5B%5D=5&minutes_max=15&seconds_max=0&minutes_min=0&seconds_min=0&down%5B%5D=0&down%5B%5D=1&down%5B%5D=2&down%5B%5D=3&down%5B%5D=4&field_pos_min_field=team&field_pos_max_field=team&end_field_pos_min_field=team&end_field_pos_max_field=team&type%5B%5D=PUNT&no_play=N&turnover_type%5B%5D=interception&turnover_type%5B%5D=fumble&score_type%5B%5D=touchdown&score_type%5B%5D=field_goal&score_type%5B%5D=safety&rush_direction%5B%5D=LE&rush_direction%5B%5D=LT&rush_direction%5B%5D=LG&rush_direction%5B%5D=M&rush_direction%5B%5D=RG&rush_direction%5B%5D=RT&rush_direction%5B%5D=RE&pass_location%5B%5D=SL&pass_location%5B%5D=SM&pass_location%5B%5D=SR&pass_location%5B%5D=DL&pass_location%5B%5D=DM&pass_location%5B%5D=DR">his 29 punts</a> this season, just six have come from beyond Detroit’s 40-yard line. The rest have given Fox the chance to boot the ball, and he has four punts that have traveled more than 60 yards. Just two have gone fewer than 40.</p>
<h3 id="cMbJWU">Team Passing Yards Allowed</h3>
<p id="FBFvGK"><strong>Current record holder: </strong>Packers (4,796, 2011)<br><strong>2020 contender:</strong> Seahawks (2,897, on pace for 5,794)</p>
<p id="9DirA7">The flip side of quarterbacks challenging so many passing records this season is that defenses are getting pummeled, and none have been worse than the Seahawks. They’re on pace to shatter the passing yards allowed record by nearly 1,000 yards. While many of the above marks will be tough to break this season, it’s hard to see how this one <em>won’t</em> be broken.</p>
<p class="c-end-para" id="VbeBUo">It’s shocking to think that Seattle traded for Jamal Adams this offseason to bolster its pass defense, and yet it still has the worst group in the league in that respect by a wide margin. The Falcons have allowed the second-most passing yards this season (2,793), but they’ve played nine games to the Seahawks’ eight. And as long as Russ keeps cooking at quarterback, teams will need to pass to keep up with Seattle—making it all the more likely that this record falls. </p>
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https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2020/11/12/21561725/single-season-records-midseason-russell-wilson-patrick-mahomesRiley McAtee2020-11-12T06:00:00-05:002020-11-12T06:00:00-05:00The NFL’s COVID-19 Tightrope Act Is Facing Another Stress Test
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<p>Rigidity—some might call it stubbornness—and luck have helped the league stay on course to finish its season. However, nothing is certain from now until the Super Bowl. </p> <aside id="S9HNAI"><div data-anthem-component="readmore" data-anthem-component-data='{"stories":[{"title":"Everything You Need to Know at the NFL’s 2020 Midseason Point","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2020/11/12/21562008/everything-you-need-to-know-at-the-nfls-2020-midseason-point"}]}'></div></aside><p id="ghry2x">Here’s some good news before the bad: According to Dr. Allen Sills, the NFL’s chief medical officer, there is no evidence that COVID-19 has spread during football games. Or <em>any </em>games he’s studied. “We have seen zero evidence of transmission player to player on the field, either during games or practices, which I think is an important and powerful statement,” Sills told <a href="https://www.si.com/nfl/2020/11/09/mmqb-week-9-lamar-jackson-ravens-growing-dolphins-giants-saints"><em>Sports Illustrated</em>’s Albert Breer this week</a>. “And it also confirms what other sports leagues have found around the world. We regularly communicate with World Rugby, Australian rules football, European soccer leagues. To date, no one has documented a case of player-to-player transmission in a field sporting environment.”</p>
<aside id="q0MpiL"><div data-anthem-component="readmore" data-anthem-component-data='{"stories":[{"title":"Which Single-Season NFL Records Are Poised to Fall in 2020?","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2020/11/12/21561725/single-season-records-midseason-russell-wilson-patrick-mahomes"},{"title":"Which NFL Breakout Performances Are Here to Stay?","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2020/11/12/21561812/breakout-performances-justin-herbert-james-robinsonuntitled"},{"title":"The NFL Has Never Seen an Offensive Boom Like This","url":"https://www.theringer.com/2020/11/12/21561876/nfl-scoring-boom-offense"}]}'></div></aside><p id="sjGd69">This, of course, is an important piece of the puzzle when it comes to understanding the virus as the NFL simultaneously tries to play a full season and keep its players and staff safe. But even if COVID-19 doesn’t spread during games, the NFL still has a COVID-19 problem, because it exists in a world with a COVID-19 problem. The numbers of positive cases are rising across the country at faster rates than at any point during the pandemic. At one point last week, about half of the league had a player or coach unavailable because of a positive test or close contact with someone who tested positive. The league has tried to reinforce its safety protocols by punishing teams and individuals who are found to be in violation of them. The Raiders organization and head coach Jon Gruden were fined and docked a draft pick last week; Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin was fined as well. Stars like Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield have been placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list, which indicates close contact or a positive test, although neither player is expected to miss games. Many other notable players <em>are </em>missing games: The 49ers ran out a bare-bones squad in their last game against Green Bay, playing without contributors Brandon Aiyuk, Trent Williams, and Deebo Samuel. Ravens star cornerback Marlon Humphrey was out last week after a positive test. No games have been canceled, but at this point, there have been virtually zero games unaffected. Players are ruled out, practices are canceled, games are played on a Tuesday. The virus has changed every corner of the league because it’s changing everything in 2020. </p>
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<p id="nYiUSe">We’re at the halfway point of what was supposed to be the weirdest season ever, and it’s time to take stock of what it looks like. The verdict is in: Yep, it’s weird. The most important thing, by far, is the health and safety of players, personnel, and their families. Next comes the football part. The NFL has not canceled a game, which has been, strangely, the result of the right mix of flexibility and rigidity. But it has had to shuffle enough furniture around to make this possible. Last month, the Titans’ outbreak led to multiple games being rescheduled; positive cases in the Patriots’ organization shortly after had the same effect. The Steelers lost a full bye week, which is a competitive disadvantage in football terms. In some cases—last week’s 49ers-Packers game being a good example—there’s probably a good argument to be made that games <em>should </em>have been pushed back. Games played in which lots of players are missing can create other health risks, such as if a replacement offensive lineman, for instance, who shouldn’t be in the game, is called into action to block stars. Stacking too many games close together with postponements also potentially creates injury concerns. As Yahoo Sports’s Dan Wetzel <a href="https://sports.yahoo.com/nf-ls-logistical-nightmares-come-into-focus-as-covid-19-threatens-games-paychecks-170023113.html">put it </a>last month, the league has generally benefited from sticking to the schedule on all matters—the draft, free agency and the regular season—because “that’s the NFL way, blunt force in the face of challenges.” </p>
<div class="c-float-left"><aside id="hXy987"><div data-anthem-component="readmore" data-anthem-component-data='{"stories":[{"title":"The 2020 Midseason Fantasy Football Awards","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2020/11/11/21559599/2020-midseason-fantasy-football-awards-travis-kelce-davante-adams-kyler-murray"},{"title":"The Most Pressing Questions for the Second Half of the NFL Season","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2020/11/10/21557773/questions-second-half-nfl-2020-season"},{"title":"Pity the Poor Punter During the NFL’s Offensive Boom","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2020/11/11/21559877/pity-the-poor-punter-nfl-2020"}]}'></div></aside></div>
<p id="uy6Obw">This week, the NFL expanded its flexibility, approving a measure that allows it to add two playoff teams—one in each conference—if games that impact the playoff race have to be canceled. NFL commissioner Roger Goodell said the plan is a contingency—the league remains committed to finishing the season as scheduled. “This is hard, and everyone is making sacrifices to keep the season on track,” Goodell told reporters this week. </p>
<p id="UBvhs5">Finishing the season is <em>the </em>story in the NFL the rest of the way—failure to do so means there are no other stories. Several college football teams are currently dealing with positive COVID-19 tests leading to the cancellation of Ohio State–Maryland and four SEC games this weekend. Wisconsin’s last two games were canceled after an outbreak within the program. </p>
<p id="X3zXHE">There are countless differences between the pro and college ranks, from testing protocols to the daily life of the athletes. There is no way to compare the two, except in one regard: If your team isn’t in a bubble, it needs a lot of discipline and luck to remain COVID-19-free. The NFL has said it will not play games in a bubble. Sills said last month it was unlikely, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/14/the-nfl-hasnt-ruled-out-a-post-season-bubble-but-appears-unlikely.html">citing mental health reasons</a> and potential isolation from family as a factor in the NFL’s reluctance to go that route. The NFL’s approach to the virus has not been perfect, but the league has played its cards right and created a system that has, so far, allowed it to utilize its own good luck and play the season with limited interruptions. </p>
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<p id="RSAkBI"><br>The NFL is going to finish the season—the playoffs and Super Bowl will happen. It’s how the league is wired. It should, however, investigate a playoff bubble. A player missing a week of practice before playing in the regular season is deemed acceptable. In Roethlisberger’s case, he won’t practice while self-isolating before possibly playing this Sunday. Tomlin said he’s “not overly concerned about it. This guy has been doing his job for 17 years.” I do not believe this Super Bowl will or should have an imaginary asterisk when we talk about it in the future: On the field, it’s basically been a normal season. It <em>would </em>head to asterisk territory if a star quarterback can’t play in a conference championship game, which is why a short-term bubble scenario for the playoffs might be necessary. Sills said last month that bubbles are not foolproof, as we saw in MLB playoffs. We will probably know more about this virus in a month than we do now. According to <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/dinner-may-be-the-most-dangerous-part-of-sports-during-the-pandemic-11603286441?mod=e2tw"><em>The Wall Street Journal</em></a>, players eating together has been the cause of a handful of football COVID-19 outbreaks. </p>
<p class="c-end-para" id="2gcMYl">In the past two months, I’ve asked nearly every person I’ve spoken to in the league what is different on the field this year. The answers are varied—a lot about special teams, or tackling, or the lack of holding penalties, or increase in pass interference penalties—but mostly, people say the games haven’t been all that much different. The scoring boom that’s peaking this season started in 2011. Great quarterbacks in silent stadiums can carve up defenses, but great quarterbacks are a pretty big advantage any year. Most people I talk to say that everything that’s happening now is an exaggerated or accelerated version of what was already happening. It’s what’s happening off the field and in facilities on a weekly basis that is making this the weirdest and most precarious football season in history. It has eight more weeks to go, and the NFL needs everything to break right to keep it intact. </p>
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https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2020/11/12/21561962/nfl-midseason-covid-playoff-super-bowlKevin Clark2020-11-11T09:08:59-05:002020-11-11T09:08:59-05:00The Fatal Flaws That Could Sink the NFL’s Top Contenders
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<p>No football team is perfect. And even some of the best teams in 2020 have weaknesses that could be their undoing.</p> <p id="Mf9PKy">No matter how good a football team might be, it’s almost impossible for one to be flawless. And in the parity-loving NFL, the margins between the good and the great teams are usually slim. Entering the 2020 regular season’s halfway point, there is one unbeaten team; one one-loss team; six two-loss teams; and seven three-loss teams. All of them are in the thick of the playoff picture, but one setback, especially with just one bye up for grabs in each conference, could be massive. The three teams tied for the best record in the NFC (Saints, Seahawks and Packers) are only one game in the loss column ahead of the fourth-, fifth- and sixth-place teams in the conference (Buccaneers, Cardinals and Rams). Four teams in the AFC are currently 5-3 and battling for the conference’s final two playoff spots, yet are a victory away from jumping to fourth place.</p>
<p id="ADvPja">All of these teams do many things well—but none are perfect. With the playoff picture taking shape, all it takes is one misstep to doom a team’s postseason chances. With that in mind, here are the biggest issues facing each contender as the season enters its second half.</p>
<h3 id="k0ZfcR">Bills (7-2): Josh Allen’s old habits</h3>
<p id="jwR8Wz">The Bills’ third-year quarterback remains enigmatic. He started the season looking like an MVP candidate, then cooled off against the Titans and Chiefs. Even against relatively weak defenses in the Jets and Patriots, he completed 67 percent of his passes for 461 yards, no touchdowns, and one interception. It seemed that as more defenses employed softer zone coverages, Allen began to struggle again. A matchup against the Seahawks helped him rebound, but that was expected against one of the worst statistical pass defenses in NFL history. Eight games in, it’s clear that Allen has improved dramatically from his first two seasons and that he’s capable of playing at a tantalizing level—but he’s also capable of going cold at the wrong times.</p>
<p id="2gZL9n">The problem might be that the Bills are reliant on Allen. Perhaps they’re not as dependent on him as the Seahawks are on Russell Wilson, but Buffalo’s two defeats (Titans and Chiefs) came in contests when Allen exhibited the same antsy, turnover-prone tendencies that troubled him in his first two seasons. The Bills defense did enough against Kansas City to keep them in the game, but Tennessee hammered their defense, which entered Week 9 <a href="https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/team-defense/2020">ranked</a> 23rd in Football Outsiders’s defensive DVOA ratings—a significant drop from the no. 7 spot they <a href="https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/team-defense/2019">held</a> in 2019. Without a top-tier defense to bail the offense out, Allen falling into old habits could be catastrophic for Buffalo.</p>
<p id="5SSmpZ">The Bills have gone as Allen has gone—he’s yet to have a phenomenal game when it wasn’t enough for Buffalo to win. So long as Allen doesn’t indulge in his past erratic ways, the Bills will be able to compete with anyone. But Buffalo’s success rests mightily with a player who hasn’t yet shown he can be consistent, and that should worry Bills fans.</p>
<h3 id="GT6lrD">Buccaneers (6-3): Chemistry and inconsistency</h3>
<p id="K1bTBb">After 20 seasons with the Patriots, Tom Brady joined a new team and adopted a new system for the first time in his career. No preseason games and an abbreviated offseason prevented him from getting fully acquainted with his new digs. Considering Brady is 43 years old, this was bound to impact his success, and that’s been apparent. Yet while there have been inconsistent performances from the Buccaneers offense this year, there have been some very strong showings, too.</p>
<p id="VHms1r">It’s made for an uneven first half. One week, Brady and Co. <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2020/10/18/21522442/buccaneers-defense-slows-aaron-rodgers-tom-brady">look great against the Packers</a>. The next, they’re scraping by against the Giants and looking hapless against the Saints. </p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Tampa Bay dropped -11.7% DVOA this week. That's the biggest week-to-week drop ever for a No. 1 team in Week 8 or later.</p>— Aaron Schatz (@FO_ASchatz) <a href="https://twitter.com/FO_ASchatz/status/1325841338290626561?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 9, 2020</a>
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<p id="s8l2PC">Tampa Bay has the makeup of a championship team, but hasn’t been able to consistently play at an elite level. That made sense earlier in the season, but at this point, it’s concerning. It’s difficult to diagnose the exact problem. Brady’s completion rate (65.3 percent) is right around his career average (63.9) and is 0.3 higher than expected, <a href="https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#completionPercentageAboveExpectation">per</a> Next Gen Stats. Brady’s <a href="https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/tam/2020.htm#rushing_and_receiving::13">target distribution</a> reveals that among tight ends and receivers, he’s shown rapport with Cameron Brate (caught 83.3 percent of targets), Tyler Johnson (83.3 percent), and Chris Godwin (80 percent). But Brady is completing less than 70 percent of his passes when targeting Mike Evans (65.4 percent), Justin Watson (63.6 percent), Scotty Miller (63.4 percent), Antonio Brown (60 percent), and Rob Gronkowski (58.7 percent), who came out of retirement after a year away. Of this group, only Evans, Gronkowski, and Miller (the team’s three leaders in targets) have played all nine games. At times, Brady has appeared in sync with his collection of targets and shined, but there are still moments when Brady doesn’t appear to be on the same page as other players.</p>
<p id="qJ7d10">Health has been a concern too, not only within the receiving corps (Godwin and Miller were on Tampa’s injury across previous weeks, and Gronkowski was nursing a shoulder injury the week before), but along the offensive line as well. Starting left guard Ali Marpet didn’t play against New Orleans because of a <a href="https://www.buccaneers.com/team/injury-report/">concussion</a>, and starting left tackle Donovan Smith battled a knee injury through the early weeks of the season. The Bucs’ O-line, like each of its position groups, is performing inconsistently this year, even against four-man pressure:</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">The Saints 4-man pass rush terrorized Tom Brady, with 3 sacks and 13 pressures on 26 dropbacks (50.0% pressure rate).<br><br>David Onyemata<br>➤ 7 pressures on 29 pass rushes (24.1%)<br><br>Trey Hendrickson<br>➤ 7 pressures, 2 sacks on 25 pass rushes (28.0%)<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NOvsTB?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NOvsTB</a> | <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Saints?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Saints</a></p>— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) <a href="https://twitter.com/NextGenStats/status/1325652514025377792?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 9, 2020</a>
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<p id="VZ0GmZ">The Bucs are one of the NFL’s best-constructed rosters. But they are still figuring out how to reach their potential.</p>
<h3 id="pXjPej">Chiefs (8-1): Run defense</h3>
<p id="P8Acvr">The Chiefs are as close to flawless as a team can be. Their defense has given up more than 20 points only twice. Their offense is among the best in several categories, including third-down conversion rate (50 percent, fourth), yards per play (6.3, third), pass yards per attempt (8.1, fifth), pass yards per game (295.3, second), and points per game (31.8, second).</p>
<p id="Yuf4pW">The Chiefs have scored 13 first-half points or fewer in four of their nine games this season (Chargers, Patriots, Bills, and Panthers). Kansas City won each game, surpassing their first-half output during the second half of three of those contests. The Chiefs appear close to unstoppable, and the only team that’s beaten them so far is the Raiders, who played as perfect a game as a team can against them. Las Vegas matched Kansas City’s first-half output and managed to generate a lead in second, then forced a few punts and an interception—Mahomes’s only interception of the year thus far.</p>
<p id="ajK7sb">Mahomes is leading one of the NFL’s highest-scoring teams while putting the ball in jeopardy at a lower clip (a league-best 0.3 percent interception rate) than he has at any point in his career. Opposing defenses have tried their best to slow down Mahomes by mixing zone coverages, but it has not worked. The Chiefs have scored on 52.8 percent of their possessions (highest in the NFL), while allowing opponents to score on just 35.1 percent (seventh lowest). Kansas City, coming off its first title in 50 years, shows no signs of slowing down and has the looks of a dynasty in the making. The Chiefs look so much better than their opponents that it feels like they don’t need to put their foot on the gas until they have to.</p>
<p id="a5fBwt">There is one potential weakness that teams have shown some ability in taking advantage of: the Chiefs’ run defense, which <a href="https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2020/opp.htm#rushing::8">ranks</a> last in expected points added (minus-38.79) and 26th in yards allowed per carry (4.8). Seven of Kansas City’s opponents have rushed for 100 yards or more. But relying on the run alone will rarely be enough to overpower Mahomes and Co.</p>
<p id="Py3r0u">The way the Chiefs operate is reminiscent of the dynastic Warriors: They’re a young, dominant squad centered around a once-in-a-generation player who’s capable of doing things nobody has seen with distinct regularity—and has the on-field swagger to suggest he knows how good he is. It’s producing results. Kansas City has no true weakness. No lead is safe. The only hope for opposing teams is to find a way to slow down Mahomes early, then hang on for dear life.</p>
<h3 id="cTovFx">Packers (6-2): Run defense</h3>
<p id="WHG6tV">Aaron Rodgers doesn’t have many weapons outside of receiver Davante Adams and tailback Aaron Jones, but those two coupled with Rodgers are enough to make the Packers offense one of the best in the NFL. Their defense, despite boasting a handful of great pass rushers and strong secondary play, has been susceptible against the run at times. It was Green Bay’s undoing last season in the NFC championship game against the 49ers, and has shown signs of being a weakness again this year.</p>
<p id="FkWPyb">Halfway into the season, the Packers rank 24th in EPA by their rush defense at minus-25.15 mark, <a href="https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2020/opp.htm#rushing::8">per</a> Pro Football Reference, and 20th in <a href="https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/team-defense/2020">Football Outsiders’s</a> rush defense DVOA ratings. The Packers are average in terms of opponent yards per carry, allowing 4.5.</p>
<p id="W3nph5">Teams have only registered 196 rushing attempts against Green Bay this season (fifth fewest), a sign most opponents have turned to the air to try to keep up with Matt LaFleur’s offense, which is averaging 31.6 points per game (third). Aside from the Vikings’ upset behind a 163-yard, three-touchdown rushing performance from Dalvin Cook, few teams have had the chance or the willingness to run the ball against Green Bay. That doesn’t mean it’s not an area of weakness. Where the Packers can perhaps be encouraged by their run defense though, is in opponents’ explosive carry rate, which is only 10 percent halfway through the season, the NFL’s ninth-lowest rate <a href="https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/explosive-play-rankings%E2%80%94def-.html">per</a> Warren Sharp’s database. Nonetheless, a team successfully rushing the ball against the Packers—moving the ball and chewing up clock while also keeping the ball out of Rodgers’s hands—could take Green Bay down.</p>
<h3 id="Go0Co5">Ravens (6-2): Lamar Jackson’s regression</h3>
<p id="E5CVzn">The Colts’ game plan against Lamar Jackson last week incorporated a heavy amount of spying, utilizing the athleticism of star linebacker Darius Leonard to aid in containing the reigning league MVP. It worked: Through two quarters, the Ravens offense scored no points and gained just 61 total yards. Jackson had just 15 yards rushing. But in the second half, the Ravens made the necessary adjustments. Jackson completed 10-of-10 passes for 119 yards and rushed for 43 yards and one touchdown, leading Baltimore to a 24-10 win—Jackson’s first-ever NFL victory after trailing at half.</p>
<p id="7cI2k6">Jackson completed 82.6 percent of his passes in the win, improving his <a href="https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/J/JackLa00/gamelog/#stats::10">record</a> to 22-1 as a starter when he completes 56 percent of his passes or better. But Jackson hasn’t consistently played at the dominant level that he did last season and has declined in nearly every statistical category. His play has been particularly worrisome in big games. Each of his defeats this season—against the Chiefs and Steelers—saw Jackson’s impact severely diminished. A key to beating the Ravens is getting pressure on Jackson and bringing him down, something both the Chiefs and Steelers were able to achieve in their regular-season meetings this season. The Ravens have skill players whom they could likely work within game plans to ease the burden on Jackson, but in each of the past two years, he’s faltered in prime-time matchups in the playoffs and the regular season. A Thanksgiving rematch with the Steelers could perhaps be the first step towards proving that he can overcome the jitters against the NFL’s best.</p>
<h3 id="jEOIlu">Saints (6-2): The deep ball</h3>
<p id="VIM5mR">The Saints’ blowout of the Bucs on Sunday night broke a five-game streak of one-score games (4-1), and has pushed New Orleans back into the Super Bowl discussion. But there are still visible weaknesses for the Saints, who have one of the league’s most balanced and deep rosters. The most glaring one is that Drew Brees appears <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2020/9/24/21452616/drew-brees-arm-strength-new-orleans-saints">incapable of airing the ball out</a> like he used to.</p>
<p id="26EjLp">Brees’s 5.8 intended air yards per attempt ranks last in the league this season, <a href="https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#average-intended-yards">per</a> Next Gen Stats. Saints receivers have seen their yards before catch average dip from 6.0 (<a href="https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2018/advanced.htm#advanced_receiving::8">2018</a>), to 5.2 (<a href="https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/advanced.htm#advanced_receiving::8">2019</a>), to 5.1 (<a href="https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2020/advanced.htm#advanced_receiving::8">2020</a>), and their yards after catch average decrease from5.4 (2019) to 5.2 (2020). Brees’s inability to go deep has affected the receivers’ ability to make things happen after the catch. The Saints’ passing game <a href="https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/team-offense/2020">ranks</a> seventh in Football Outsiders’s DVOA metric, so the inability to stretch the field hasn’t completely tanked the offense. But New Orleans’s 17 explosive pass plays rank 30th in the league, <a href="https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/explosive-play-rankings%E2%80%94off-.html">per</a> Warren Sharp’s database. The Saints are registering explosive pass plays on only 6 percent of throws (27th).</p>
<p id="DTSDPn">Brees has been limited by a <a href="https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/11/04/drew-brees-on-injury-report-but-he-downplays-right-shoulder-issue/">right shoulder injury</a> over the past few weeks, and there’s concern about whether it will play a bigger role as the season goes on. The Saints have suffered heart-wrenching postseason defeats to the Vikings (twice) and Rams in the past three years. Brees has struggled down the stretch of each of them. Time is running out on Brees’s chance at a second title, but if he’s going to capture it, it won’t be by testing his opponents deep.</p>
<h3 id="RH4UsD">Seahawks (6-2): Pass defense</h3>
<p id="AOR1B8">You cannot discuss the NFL’s last decade without mentioning the Seahawks’ legendary Legion of Boom. Eight games into this decade, Seattle’s secondary is being talked about for all of the wrong reasons. The Seahawks are giving up 362.1 pass yards per game, the most ever allowed by a team through eight games.</p>
<p id="ztc4Ds">The heroics of Russell Wilson, who’s playing at an MVP-caliber level this season, <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2020/11/8/21555611/seahawks-defense-lose-josh-allen-buffalo-bills">won’t always be enough</a>, as recent weeks have revealed. The Seahawks have allowed opposing passers to generate explosive plays on 10 percent of throws, tied for the fourth-worst rate this season, <a href="https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/explosive-play-rankings%E2%80%94def-.html">per</a> Warren Sharp’s database. The 38 explosive pass plays Seattle has allowed is the second-most allowed overall this season.</p>
<p id="o5yc5m">The Seahawks have struggled to generate much of a pass rush, which certainly plays a role in their inability to slow opposing passers. But injuries and poor performances from members of the secondary have led to major questions surrounding the unit entering the second half of the year. There’s still plenty of time to perhaps remedy the issues, but until there’s even marginal signs of improvement, Seattle will have to rely on the arm of Wilson to carry the team.</p>
<h3 id="svrjfL">Steelers (8-0): Keeping Ben Roethlisberger healthy</h3>
<p id="m6nuuC">Through eight games, Pittsburgh is the NFL’s only unbeaten team. This is the Steelers’ best start ever, and coach Mike Tomlin has his squad positioned for an exciting playoff run. But Pittsburgh’s undefeated start nearly ended against the lowly Cowboys last week, pointing toward some potential weaknesses for this squad.</p>
<p id="FyYFcV">Hardly anyone expected Pittsburgh to struggle in Dallas. But when Ben Roethlisberger came out of the game during the second quarter because of a knee injury—while the Cowboys were leading—and Mason Rudolph replaced him, it seemed like a recipe for disaster, one that the Steelers became familiar with last season. Roethlisberger returned for the second half and finished with 306 passing yards and three touchdowns. Roethlisberger was the difference between the Steelers being a playoff contender and a .500 squad last year. He’s the key to them achieving this season, in concert with one of the NFL’s most dominant defenses.</p>
<p id="VvP21n">But for Roethlisberger, 38, making it through the next eight-plus games fully healthy will be difficult. In Week 8 against the Ravens, he <a href="https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/11/01/ben-roethlisberger-elbow-is-good-just-a-funny-bone/">dinged up</a> the same elbow he underwent season-ending surgery for last year. On Monday, NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport <a href="https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1325931569572433920?s=20">reported</a> that Roethlisberger injured both knees against the Cowboys and there’s “cautious optimism” about his health ahead of facing the Bengals this week. On Tuesday, he was <a href="https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1326179664151408640?s=20">placed</a> on the reserve/COVID-19 list after being ruled a close contact of teammate Vance McDonald, who tested positive. Pittsburgh already had its bye week after its matchup with the Titans was <a href="https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/30023819/pittsburgh-steelers-tennessee-titans-game-rescheduled-oct-25">rescheduled</a> because of a virus outbreak, so there’s a chance Roethlisberger could have to play 13 games in a row prior to the postseason starting. The Steelers will need to keep him upright, because Rudolph will not be able to keep this team in championship contention.</p>
<h3 id="PVyxrj">Titans (6-2): Third-down defense</h3>
<p id="lEXzNQ">The Titans have followed up their surprising AFC championship run with a 6-2 start to the 2020 season. The most remarkable part of Tennessee’s record is that it has gone 5-1 in one-possession games so far. When the going gets tough, there are few teams who can grind a game out better than the Titans—until it’s third down.</p>
<p id="HELdVH">Tennessee’s defense ranks dead last in third-down percentage, allowing opposing offenses to convert 55.4 percent of the time. And this is <em>after</em> the Titans held the Bears to 2-for-15 last week. Prior to facing Chicago—which entered 31st in third-down offense (34.9 percent)—Mike Vrabel’s defense was allowing opposing offense to <a href="https://www.theherald-news.com/2020/11/08/against-the-nfls-worst-third-down-defense-bears-go-2-for-15-on-third-down/aa3hosg/#:~:text=The%20Bears%20entered%20Week%209,%2Ddown%20conversions%20(34.9%25).&text=To%20add%20insult%20to%20injury,%2C%E2%80%9D%20receiver%20Allen%20Robinson%20said.">convert</a> 61.9 percent of third downs. It’s been a dramatic free fall from the 36.3-percent mark the Tennessee defense was holding opposing offenses to last season in such situations.</p>
<p id="NXvCSN">This season, opposing passers have combined to complete 53 of 87 passes (60.9 percent) for 597 yards, six touchdowns, two interceptions, and 45 first downs on third downs against the Titans. Opposing rushers have attempted 23 carries for 115 yards (5.0 ypc), managing 17 first downs and one touchdown.</p>
<p id="My4rWh">There are a handful of factors that have contributed to Tennessee’s issues on third down, including a lacking pass rush and inconsistent perimeter coverage. The offseason addition of former All-Pro pass rusher Vic Beasley did not work out—he was released after appearing in just five games. The acquisition of Jadeveon Clowney has aided the front seven, but hasn’t firmly established the Titans’ pass rush as dominant, as he’s been hampered by a knee injury since Week 5. Tennessee <a href="https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2020/opp.htm#advanced_defense::none">ranks</a> eighth worst in pressure rate (19.1 percent) and is tied for the NFL’s third-worst sack rate (3.0 percent). Those numbers have also been influenced by shaky coverage in the secondary. Starting cornerback Adoree’ Jackson was placed on injured reserve before the season started, pressing veteran Johnathan Joseph into the lineup. The Titans cut Joseph, who tied for 62nd in <a href="https://premium.pff.com/nfl/positions/defense/summary?position=CB&season=2020&week=1%2C2%2C3%2C4%2C5%2C6%2C7%2C8%2C9%2C10%2C11%2C12%2C13%2C14%2C15%2C16%2C17">Pro Football Focus’s</a> coverage grades (62.4), after seven games. Tennessee acquired one-time All-Pro defensive back Desmond King from the Chargers at the trade deadline, and he made an immediate impact—King scored off a fumble return in a 24-17 win during his debut. But the Titans will need last week’s defensive performance to be more than just an outlier moving forward.</p>
<p class="c-end-para" id="oIB9YJ">Tennessee also has an awful red zone defense, which is the league’s <a href="https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2020/opp.htm">second worst</a> halfway through the season, with opponents scoring touchdowns on 23 of 29 chances (79.3 percent). The Titans have time to figure things out, but as long as they’re shaky on third down, it will leave them susceptible to folding in big moments.</p>
https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2020/11/11/21559211/fatal-flaws-nfl-contendersKaelen Jones2020-11-11T08:10:24-05:002020-11-11T08:10:24-05:00The RB Drought, In-Season Sleepers, and Midseason Fantasy Awards
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<img alt="NFL: NOV 01 Steelers at Ravens" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/JnW3vhfL5HEltCGpWDUkujLwnMk=/0x0:3600x2700/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/67770585/1229428283.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Bad beats, the ‘Old Yeller’ award, and more</p> <div id="yLrpX0"><iframe src="https://open.spotify.com/embed-podcast/episode/6fcei7a8oimVKld0U2zH1i" style="border: 0; width: 100%; height: 232px;" allowfullscreen="" allow="encrypted-media"></iframe></div>
<p id="gmlUFn"><br><a href="https://open.spotify.com/episode/6fcei7a8oimVKld0U2zH1i?si=wQRSI8_8QcSzu1yZGQLHGA">As we enter the second half of the fantasy season</a>, we give out our Ringer Fantasy Football Awards after the first nine weeks before getting into some Week 9 bad beats.</p>
<p id="EQxh6b">Awards:</p>
<p id="XfvuML">The Leap Award (4:15)</p>
<p id="GM1MH6">The Just Don’t Watch Them Play Award (9:30)</p>
<p id="qNFFdp">Matt Asiata Award for Biggest Vulture (14:35)</p>
<p id="psyEOX">Most Unexpected Breakout (19:00)</p>
<p id="NdtLkH">The ‘N SYNC Award (28:30)</p>
<p id="o79ZIJ">The Old Yeller Award (32:30)</p>
<p id="2FE4AJ">The Top Sleeper Award (34:00)</p>
<p id="K3eToG">Sleepers That Failed You (37:00)</p>
<p id="2xZZy3">The Drunken Amazon Order Award (41:30)</p>
<p id="1ZUQWm">Bad Beats (42:30)</p>
<p id="1Nqd3Q">Email us! ringerfantasyfootball@gmail.com</p>
<p id="CyPG8L"><strong>Subscribe: </strong><a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/0XLPhMzcKmxoNziHkVkYpR">Spotify</a></p>
<p id="dOGcMw"></p>
https://www.theringer.com/2020/11/11/21559760/the-rb-drought-in-season-sleepers-and-midseason-fantasy-awardsDanny HeifetzDanny KellyCraig Horlbeck2020-11-11T06:00:00-05:002020-11-11T06:00:00-05:00The 2020 Midseason Fantasy Football Awards
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<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/YgkA5vAGVW65xMsjCmDwgeXMSQc=/67x0:1134x800/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/67770177/NFL_midseason_fantasy_getty_ringer_2.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Getty Images/Ringer illustration</figcaption>
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<p>We’re closing in on crunch time in the fantasy football world. These are the guys who have made your season, broken your season, or failed to show up all together. </p> <p id="ZZqdBp">Fantasy football had a hard collision with reality this year. Checking which players are on the COVID-19 list has become part of the weekly fantasy ritual, like adding and dropping bench guys and finding the right GIF to trash-talk friends. This strange season has created two groups of fantasy players: Those who will win their leagues and proclaim this the most meaningful season of them all, and everyone else, who will lose and insist there is an asterisk on this year. (“We want to count all <em>legal</em> championships,” could be a common phrase in group texts). </p>
<p id="3TlDOZ">So for the overwhelming percentage of people who <em>won’t</em> win their championships this year, we give you a small consolation prize: the 2020 midseason fantasy football awards.</p>
<h4 id="aEGf0T">The ’NSync Award—Pittsburgh Steelers Receiving Corps</h4>
<p id="DjJPFc">Everyone who sunk a top pick into JuJu Smith-Schuster this year thought they were getting Justin Timberlake. Instead, JuJu turned out to be Pittsburgh’s Lance Bass. He’ll always be famous, but he might not have the talent to be a leading man. </p>
<p id="2fv131">In a stunning twist, Chase Claypool has risen to become Pittsburgh’s Timberlake. Claypool leads the team in receiving yards and touchdowns, and is the smart bet to have the brightest future of anyone in the group. Claypool also played at Notre Dame, so like Timberlake, he once had a golden dome. </p>
<p id="xxFGK4">Diontae Johnson is JC Chasez. He can handle the lead vocals but has suffered too many injuries to do it consistently. Eric Ebron is Joey Fatone: Never the star, but when he scores a touchdown, it’s nice to remember he exists. James Washington is Chris Kirkpatrick. Obviously. And while Steelers general manager Kevin Colbert keeps cranking out these young receivers, we’re going to stop the comparisons <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/lou-pearlman-backstreet-boys-nsync-lure-people-massive/story?id=67630954">there</a>.</p>
<div id="wBPKgW"><iframe src="https://open.spotify.com/embed-podcast/episode/6K1u6Erw7gKl6YIrAAEVrm" style="border: 0; width: 100%; height: 232px;" allowfullscreen="" allow="encrypted-media"></iframe></div>
<h4 id="OxxePP">
<br>The Drunken Amazon Order Award: Kenyan Drake</h4>
<p id="dFOrAg">Plenty of people have been drunk-scrolling through Amazon and thought, “I could really use a 24-pack of Slim Jims.” Then you see the 48-pack is cheaper on a per–Slim Jim basis and pull trigger. But by the time the package arrives, you are sober and completely bewildered as to why you bought it. Similarly, drafting Kenyan Drake in the second round seemed brilliant at the time, like a cheaper version of Clyde Edwards-Helaire. But then the season started, your team opened with a 1-3 record, and now Drake ranks 19th among running backs in yards from scrimmage per game. What was going through your head during the draft? Maybe too many Bud Lights. </p>
<h4 id="bskAdx">The Wile E. Coyote Off a Cliff Award: The Dallas Cowboys</h4>
<div id="Bw1eFV"><div style="left: 0; width: 100%; height: 0; position: relative; padding-bottom: 74.9425%;"><iframe src="https://giphy.com/embed/39wBF8ZtAwIXvDnI23" style="border: 0; top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; position: absolute;" allowfullscreen="" scrolling="no" allow="encrypted-media"></iframe></div></div>
<p id="IMiVWb">Dallas dropped off a cliff this season harder than anyone since Wile E. Coyote. Before Dak Prescott got injured in Week 5, the Cowboys were floating. Amari Cooper was the third-best receiver in fantasy, CeeDee Lamb was in the top 15, and tight end Dalton Schultz was in the top eight at his position. But without Prescott over the past four weeks, Cooper is barely in the top 25 receivers, Lamb is outside the top 45, and Schultz is 15th among tight ends. Apparently Andy Dalton, Ben DiNucci, and Garrett Gilbert are not able to sustain one of the NFL’s premier passing offenses.</p>
<p id="OFxg14">The hardest hit of anyone on the team has been Ezekiel Elliott, who gets the Cubic Zeke-conia award: He looks stunning from a distance, but is not worth much upon closer inspection. With the injuries to Prescott allowing defenses to key in on the run, and injuries to the offensive line turning the Cowboys’ dominant blocking unit into one of the league’s worst, Elliott has struggled more than any other top pick. He ranks 31st in fantasy points by running backs over the last month and 46th in fantasy points per game. On the season, he is averaging just 64 rushing yards per contest, which ranks 17th in the league, one spot behind Phillip Lindsay. Perhaps Gilbert will save the Cowboys season. Or perhaps Dallas will drop to rock bottom.</p>
<div id="lj24Kj"><iframe src="https://open.spotify.com/embed-podcast/episode/4WLHyzPfxjqgSduUgue2d5" style="border: 0; width: 100%; height: 232px;" allowfullscreen="" allow="encrypted-media"></iframe></div>
<h4 id="JbGWgJ">
<br>Most Cash Money: Davante Adams</h4>
<p id="aIyT13">There are players you can take to the bank, and then there are those who just print money on their own. Adams is averaging 28.1 fantasy points per game in PPR leagues, seven more than the next closest receiver. That means Adams is putting the equivalent of a touchdown between himself and the no. 2 receiver every week. He is one touchdown away from leading the NFL despite having played three fewer games than the current leader, Tyreek Hill. There is no more consistent player in the NFL or in fantasy football than Adams.</p>
<h4 id="sETq3W">The Game Wrecker: Dalvin Cook</h4>
<p id="NWKPA3">Cook has the most fantasy points among running backs despite having played just seven games. In his last two contests, Cook has put up 478 yards from scrimmage and six touchdowns, which combines for more fantasy points in PPR leagues (88) than second-rounders like Kenyan Drake and Miles Sanders have had all season. Cook has single-handedly won many matchups for managers over the past couple of weeks.</p>
<div id="8ITpG9"><iframe src="https://open.spotify.com/embed-podcast/show/0XLPhMzcKmxoNziHkVkYpR" style="border: 0; width: 100%; height: 232px;" allowfullscreen="" allow="encrypted-media"></iframe></div>
<h4 id="EHTQ0b"></h4>
<h4 id="5QXhPD">The Sleepers Who Actually Worked Out</h4>
<ol>
<li id="sBUSqe">
<strong>James Robinson: </strong>The undrafted rookie went from fifth on Jacksonville’s running back depth chart to a top-five fantasy running back.</li>
<li id="Njw9b0">
<strong>Antonio Gibson: </strong>Gibson won the starting running back job in Washington and already has nearly three times as many carries in the NFL as he did at Memphis.</li>
<li id="gpcx5a">
<strong>Justin Jefferson: </strong>He has the sixth-most receiving yards ever through a player’s first eight games.</li>
<li id="ikkI1x">
<strong>Robby Anderson: </strong>Anderson came out of nowhere (the Jets) to rank tied for third in catches and fourth in receiving yards this season.</li>
<li id="lrBr37">
<strong>Jonnu Smith: </strong>The tight end position has been turned upside down, starting with Jonnu Smith ranking top five in points per game among TEs.</li>
</ol>
<h4 id="oHHzDm">The Sleepers Who Ghosted</h4>
<ol>
<li id="iaqkV2">
<strong>Michael Gallup</strong>: Even when the Cowboys were rolling, Gallup was covered in moss.</li>
<li id="zTPqVF">
<strong>Marquise Brown</strong>: We are changing his nickname from “Hollywood” to “Bakersfield.”</li>
<li id="OZSgNv">
<strong>Jordan Howard</strong>: Howard got nearly $5 million this season but was a healthy scratch for much of October.</li>
<li id="DRDIE6">
<strong>Tyler Higbee</strong>: One of the most popular sleepers this offseason has not surpassed 56 receiving yards in a game.</li>
<li id="o1EoN7">
<strong>Chris Herndon</strong>: Has more fumbles (two) than games with more than 25 receiving yards (one).</li>
</ol>
<h4 id="rUtCUn">Biggest Return on Investment: Mid-Round Quarterbacks</h4>
<p id="qe0jiT">Amazon, Facebook, and Google have made people historic amounts of money because it turns out investing in <a href="https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2020/10/house-amazon-facebook-apple-google-have-monopoly-power-should-be-split/">monopolies</a> is profitable. Similar ROI is happening in fantasy football this season. The firewall between elite running and passing has melted. Lamar Jackson dominated fantasy last year because he led the league in passing touchdowns and also had more than 1,000 rushing yards. This season, the floodgate has opened for rushing quarterbacks. </p>
<p id="XmqlHK"><a href="https://stathead.com/football/pgl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&order_by_asc=0&order_by=fantasy_points_ppr&year_min=1950&game_type=R&positions%5B%5D=qb&age_min=0&age_max=99&game_num_min=1&game_num_max=9&week_num_min=0&week_num_max=99&season_start=1&season_end=-1">Kyler Murray has more fantasy points</a> through eight games than any quarterback in NFL history. He has more points than Jackson in 2019, more than Patrick Mahomes in 2018, more than Peyton Manning in 2013, or Tom Brady in 2007. Not only is Murray on pace for the best fantasy season ever from a quarterback, but Russell Wilson is on pace for the second-best season ever. Toss in Josh Allen (and Patrick Mahomes, even though he was an early pick in most leagues), and four of the best 20 starts in fantasy football history are all happening this season. We will spend all spring and summer wondering what happened and whether this type of ridiculous success is repeatable. But for now, the people who drafted these guys are rich.</p>
<h4 id="MyAVcc">Injuries That Ruined Your Season, Ranked (Non-COVID Edition)</h4>
<ol>
<li id="QB2DHV">
<strong>Saquon Barkley:</strong> He doesn’t even have a suitable handcuff to replace him.</li>
<li id="70H7Hb">
<strong>Christian McCaffrey:</strong> You either got Mike Davis to replace him or you didn’t.</li>
<li id="i0hqub">
<strong>Michael Thomas:</strong> The safest receiver in the game missed most of the first half of the season.</li>
<li id="XoCD4z">
<strong>Austin Ekeler:</strong> A second-round pick who doesn’t even have a clear timeline to return.</li>
<li id="D8A6I8">
<strong>Nick Chubb:</strong> A second-round pick who was looking really good until he got hurt.</li>
<li id="7De5Dt">
<strong>Courtland Sutton:</strong> A breakout candidate who tore his ACL in Week 2. </li>
<li id="lyB29l">
<strong>Dak Prescott:</strong> Was keeping many teams afloat as a top-five QB until he got hurt.</li>
<li id="UxIXfC">
<strong>49ers Defense:</strong> The no. 1 defense drafted this year was destroyed by injuries two weeks into the season and is barely worth rostering.</li>
<li id="xnrdhz">
<strong>Kenny Golladay and Chris Godwin:</strong> Two receivers drafted in the third round who have barely played this season, and even when they have been on the field, they’ve barely produced.</li>
</ol>
<h4 id="1uNDbw">Healthy Players Who Ruined Your Season, Ranked</h4>
<ol>
<li id="s7Qe66">
<strong>Ezekiel Elliott: </strong>See: Cubic Zeke-conia</li>
<li id="Bq2ZIl">
<strong>Jonathan Taylor: </strong>Lost snaps to Jordan Wilkins even before an ankle injury.</li>
<li id="xXH0Xc">
<strong>Devin Singletary:</strong> Has had touchdowns stolen by Josh Allen and Zack Moss.</li>
<li id="nP3bUu">
<strong>Le’Veon Bell:</strong> Hated by his former coach and now buried in a great offense.</li>
<li id="sNQNn3">
<strong>David Montgomery: </strong>Mediocre running back on the league’s least inspiring offense.</li>
<li id="iFaJT6">
<strong>T.Y. Hilton: </strong>Averaging career lows in every meaningful category, has no touchdowns and zero rapport with Philip Rivers.</li>
</ol>
<h4 id="n0YvAC">Ole Faithful: Travis Kelce</h4>
<p id="OEleEg">Kelce is on pace to score more points than he did in 2018, when he broke the record for receiving yards by a tight end in a single season. San Francisco tight end George Kittle rebroke that record hours later, but this year, Kelce is peerless. He has 168.9 fantasy points this season (almost a Gronk-like figure), while the next closest tight end is Darren Waller with 111.4. Kelce has more than twice as many PPR points than Evan Engram, the 10th-highest scoring tight end this season, and nearly 300 more receiving yards than any one at his position. Kelce’s absolute dominance is giving the people who drafted him the equivalent of an extra roster spot.</p>
<h4 id="0xzauj">The Guy You Are 1000% Not Trading Away: DK Metcalf</h4>
<p class="c-end-para" id="Rfdu3i">There is real joy in having the most exciting player in football on your team. This isn’t always the <em>best</em> fantasy football player (though it can be): Odell Beckham Jr., Lamar Jackson, Christian McCaffrey, and Rob Gronkowski have all been this guy in the past. This year, that person is DK Metcalf. The wideout who fell to the Seahawks in the second round and fell to many fantasy managers in the sixth this year has been the no. 2 fantasy wide receiver through nine weeks—but he is no. 1 in everyone’s hearts. Metcalf is the most fun player to watch with the ball in his hands, and sometimes even when the ball is not in his hands, like that epic rundown of Cardinals safety Budda Baker last month. That tackle didn’t earn points, but when one of your players is the league’s unanimous rising star <em>and</em> one of the most productive in fantasy, it doesn’t matter what anyone offers you in a trade—you can’t deal away a first-row ticket to watch him. </p>
https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2020/11/11/21559599/2020-midseason-fantasy-football-awards-travis-kelce-davante-adams-kyler-murrayDanny Heifetz