The Ringer - 2019-20 NBA Power Rankings2019-10-22T06:10:00-04:00http://www.theringer.com/rss/stream/206887972019-10-22T06:10:00-04:002019-10-22T06:10:00-04:00NBA Power Rankings, Day 4: The Four-Team Title Race
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<p>The season is upon us, and the Bucks, Clippers, Sixers, and Lakers have the best shot at winning the championship. Can Giannis, Embiid, and Simmons go to another level? Can Kawhi, LeBron, and AD stay healthy enough to deliver a title to Los Angeles? </p> <p id="NMTJDN"><em>Basketball. Is. Back. I’m ranking all 30 teams and slotting them into tiers. In our four-part series, we’ve looked at teams </em><a href="https://www.theringer.com/nba/2019/10/17/20917964/nba-season-tiers-power-ranking-bradley-beal-kevin-love"><em>eyeing the future</em></a><em>, teams </em><a href="https://www.theringer.com/nba-preview/2019/10/18/20919923/nba-season-tiers-power-rankings-zion-williamson-luka-doncic"><em>at the crossroads</em></a><em>, and teams </em><a href="https://www.theringer.com/nba-preview/2019/10/21/20923923/nba-power-rankings-denver-miami-portland-finals-contenders"><em>on the brink of contention</em></a><em>. Today, we’re focusing on my top four NBA Finals favorites: Milwaukee and Philadelphia in the East, and both Los Angeles teams in the West. None of them is an overwhelming favorite like Golden State was in recent years, or LeBron’s Heatles were at the start of the decade. This decade is closing quite differently from how it began, with more parity than in any other year. </em></p>
<p id="IqVWJ2"><em>That’s what makes this season so different. There are only a handful of teams in the West without any chance of making the playoffs, and virtually every team in the East could grab an honorary playoff spot as the 8-seed. It’s the first year in a long time when there’s not an overwhelming Finals favorite, or any clarity about which 16 teams will actually make the playoffs. So what happens in games during the long regular season will matter. We will get a season with twists and turns, more big trades, and lots of drama.</em></p>
<p id="iy8S9q"><em>I’ll always have fond memories for this decade of basketball in how the game evolved and the incredible moments along the way, but I’m especially looking forward to this season more than any other because of the parity. I’m offering up what I think will be the major talking point, story line, or theme for each of these final four teams of this series. Let’s get this started.</em></p>
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<h3 id="FszImO">Finals Favorites </h3>
<h5 id="duEcaI">4. Milwaukee Bucks</h5>
<p id="ntoCOI">Can Giannis Antetokounmpo get better? And if he can, what would that look like? He narrowly missed out last year on joining Michael Jordan and Hakeem Olajuwon as the only players to ever win both MVP and Defensive Player of the Year in the same season. That it wouldn’t be a total shocker if Giannis were to make another run at both awards in 2020 is a testament to his emerging greatness.</p>
<p id="a8zySj">Giannis gets knocked for his jumper, but his accuracy has gotten better; he shot 34 percent on 153 dribble-jumper 3s and 31 percent on 42 catch-and-shoot 3s since Christmas last season, including the playoffs and the 2019-20 preseason. It’s a tiny sample but his form looks smoother. His playmaking, on the other hand, has stagnated.</p>
<p id="py9qoP">There were times in the playoffs last season when four or five defenders would be in the paint and he’d force a shot rather than kick it out, like here in Game 5 against the Raptors:</p>
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<p id="FMIGAV">If Giannis can get better at reading those situations, the Bucks offense will be even more lethal. Their roster makes total sense: Brook Lopez earned the nickname Splash Mountain, and now his brother Robin will be raining 3s, too. Khris Middleton is the perfect complement to Giannis, and they have a bunch of other shooters. In preseason, Giannis was noticeably aware of his targets when on the break:</p>
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<p id="7QoV3H">Giannis’s development as a passer would add range to Mike Budenholzer’s offense, and render Antetokounmpo that much more of a threat to make positive plays for his teammates no matter where he is on the floor. It would also lessen Milwaukee’s dependency on Eric Bledsoe’s playmaking. Malcolm Brogdon’s departure left the Bucks searching for a secondary playmaker. He was replaced by Wesley Matthews and Kyle Korver, neither of whom are in the same class as Brogdon as a passer or defender. He was an integral part of Milwaukee’s best lineups last season. At times, he was even their second-best player, ahead of Middleton.</p>
<p id="miwzbG">The Bucks should keep their eyes open for a better playmaker than Bledsoe, who was a stink bomb in the playoffs. In July, I suggested Chris Paul if he looks good this season. Bledsoe, Ersan Ilyasova, and George Hill for Paul would work financially; OKC would need to move players to create roster space, and more assets would be exchanged. Paul is old and expensive, but could he be a risk worth taking in pursuit of a title?</p>
<p id="TJoPfS">A reliable point guard—whether it’s Paul, Kyle Lowry, or someone else—would take pressure off Giannis and allow Budenholzer to be more creative with actions that get Antetokounmpo rolling toward the rim using on-ball screens and dribble handoffs. Or, if he improves his own playmaking, the Bucks front office could use assets to chase another wing defender, which could prove to be valuable in a potential Finals series. Milwaukee is close to being a Finals contender, but it feels like one piece is missing. It may not matter: Giannis himself could prove to be enough.</p>
<h5 id="C1wGEQ">3. Philadelphia 76ers</h5>
<p id="hxyqeu">The Sixers will have the NBA’s best defense. We’re talking about 2004 Pistons potential here. Joel Embiid is one of the league’s most impactful rim protectors, and Ben Simmons is a deserving All-Defensive player. Now they have the long and feisty Josh Richardson to contain opposing point guards. They added Al Horford, who fills a gaping hole behind Embiid. </p>
<p id="DaMfgA">Horford will start next to Embiid, but he’ll also be the NBA’s best backup center. In the preseason, Brett Brown staggered Horford with Embiid after the opening minutes to always keep a quality rim protector on the floor. Embiid should realistically enter the playoffs healthy and load-managed thanks to Horford. Toss in Matisse Thybulle, who already looks like one of the league’s best wing defenders, plus lengthy wings in Tobias Harris and James Ennis, and you have a matchup-proof defense.</p>
<p id="9Tzubv">The Sixers can play with jumbo-sized lineups: Embiid, Horford, Simmons, Harris, and Richardson. Or they can be more versatile with Thybulle in the game over Horford or Embiid. Heck, they can even go small with Simmons at center. Brown will be able to dictate matchups with his defense against most teams in the East. In a potential series against the Bucks, Brown has plenty of defenders to throw at Giannis in the half court, and the bodies to build a wall to contain his scary transition attacks.</p>
<div class="c-float-left"><aside id="kpMrB8"><div data-anthem-component="readmore" data-anthem-component-data='{"stories":[{"title":"Lou Williams May Not Start, but He’s Ready to Help the Clippers Finish Their Championship Quest","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nba/2019/10/22/20925456/lou-williams-los-angeles-clippers-kawhi-leonard-paul-george"},{"title":"The Clippers—Yes, the Clippers—Are the Team of Today ","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nba-preview/2019/10/22/20926126/kawhi-leonard-los-angeles-clippers-2019-20-nba-preview"}]}'></div></aside></div>
<p id="9NZtzy">The elephant in the room is the shooting. Embiid isn’t an outside threat and Simmons shoots with the wrong hand. The reserves have a lot to prove, whether it’s Thybulle and Ennis, or Zhaire Smith and Shake Milton. Harris, Richardson, and Horford will need to shoot the lights out. We’re about to find out how much size actually matters on offense. The Sixers could theoretically bully-ball opponents in the post. Brown could even get creative and run double-big pick-and-rolls close to the rim, which we’ve seen the Bucks do with Giannis. Philadelphia will almost always have a size advantage, which means Simmons will have to beat guys smaller than him, and Embiid will need to make quick reads when double-teams come.</p>
<p id="G8C3Xa">The Sixers also have to come up with a reliable crunch-time plan now that Jimmy Butler is in Miami. Simmons can’t yet be relied on in those situations because of his lack of a jumper, so it’ll likely have to be Harris or Richardson. <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nba-preview/2019/9/25/20882272/seven-breakout-nba-players-dangelo-russell-jayson-tatum">I made the case last month</a> that Richardson will absorb that role. Brown has been experimenting with using Richardson in a backup point guard role behind Simmons. If Philly can find this go-to scorer, it could mean the difference in a playoff game or a series.</p>
<p id="RXq47W">The Sixers get an edge over the Bucks because of their top-end talent and potentially historic defense, even though they have more questions facing their offense. The league is set up for a paradigm shift: Can Philadelphia force teams to start thinking big?</p>
<h5 id="3JbPKj">2. Los Angeles Clippers</h5>
<p id="RDrlZa">The first Clippers fan I ever met is my friend and <em>Ringer </em>coworker Isaac Lee. He often wears all black, an appropriate symbol for the sadness he’s long felt for his favorite team. For as long as I’ve known Isaac, he’s never had much hope for the Clippers because, as he told me, there’s a “foreboding premonition in the back of my mind that disappointment is inevitable. You can’t argue against history.” Well, even the most melodramatic Clippers fans like Isaac are starting to feel some hope.</p>
<p id="68Yv5w">Kawhi Leonard and Paul George will do that to you. The duo joins a group that features last season’s nastiest pick-and-roll duo—Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell—plus a knockdown shooter in Landry Shamet and the world’s most hostile defender, Patrick Beverley. Now Kawhi will get to benefit from this supporting cast:</p>
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<p id="WGfVXT">Sacrifices had to be made for the Clippers to add so much star power (farewell, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander!), but Maurice Harkless and JaMychal Green are nice veteran additions, and rookie Terance Mann could eventually carve out a spot in the rotation.</p>
<p id="fiOXiW">The Clippers have the personnel to match up against anyone. Beverley can hound smaller opposing scoring guards like Steph Curry and Damian Lillard, while Kawhi and George can bother LeBron James. Conversely, there aren’t many teams that can stop Kawhi <em>and </em>George. Kawhi will take on alpha responsibilities, while George can abuse the opponent’s second-best wing defender and attack rotating defenses that have their hands full with Kawhi.</p>
<p id="K5CZAT">The Clippers could use one more ball handler—watch out for Andre Iguodala if he hits the buyout market—and a thick big man better than Ivica Zubac for a potential series against Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets. But we’re nitpicking. The Clippers have assembled a nearly perfect squad. </p>
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<p id="QOpTHP">All that really matters is that this team is healthy heading into the playoffs, but seeding is also important in a loaded conference, so George’s early-season absence is noteworthy as he recovers from double shoulder surgery. <a href="https://twitter.com/MarkG_Medina/status/1183126374627696640">Doc Rivers said</a> George will miss at least the first 10 games. The timeline is unclear, though. <a href="https://art19.com/shows/the-ringer-nba-show/episodes/9038b275-f709-4888-ac81-d09ca1a60964">I reported this summer</a> that he could miss closer to six weeks, which would mean he’s out for 20-25 games. By the time he’s back, we’ll either be talking about how much he’s missed or how Leonard is mounting a case for his first MVP.</p>
<p id="LnblDO">Kawhi <a href="https://twitter.com/AndrewGreif/status/1185066454200143873">said</a> he won’t be under a load management plan anymore now that he’s healthy. He doesn’t go balls to the wall on defense anymore since he paces himself for the playoffs, but he can still turn it up in big moments. There will be many of those early in the season, before George returns, with games against the Lakers, Rockets, and Bucks. And we already know what he can do offensively after he went full MJ last postseason. </p>
<p id="cuBDDA">The Clippers haven’t just changed their roster, they’re changing the way they play. Their shot selection is shifting: They ranked 27th in 3-point shooting frequency last season, but were closer to league average during preseason games. The Clippers attempted 38.8 percent of their shots from 3, which is the fifth-highest shift from the season to the preseason, trailing behind just two teams that had front office regime changes (Washington and Minnesota) and two teams that hired a new head coach (Cleveland and Chicago). The stylistic shift sticks makes sense: The more space for Leonard and George, the better off they’ll be.</p>
<p id="TgHqkQ">The Clippers are the safest bet to win the NBA Finals. I’m ranking them just a sliver behind the Lakers because I feel the purple and gold have slightly higher upside. Besides, should we really set expectations so high for Clippers Nation? They’re underdogs at heart.</p>
<h5 id="otBaig">1. Los Angeles Lakers</h5>
<p id="mzzWSE">There’s been so much focus on how depth, durability, and drama could derail the Lakers’ season, but their best-case scenario is overwhelming. News flash: LeBron James and Anthony Davis—two top-five stars with synergistic skills—play on the same team now. These two have <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nba/2019/7/22/20703153/lakers-anthony-davis-lebron-james-superteam-free-agency-trade">never played with anyone like each other</a>. It isn’t an exaggeration to say they could compose the greatest pick-and-roll duo the NBA has ever seen.</p>
<p id="qxSCyv">LeBron can score from anywhere and pass in any direction. Now his favored target is Davis—a guy who can pop for 3s, attack off the dribble, or throw down dunks. And we don’t talk enough about just how great Davis himself is as a passer.</p>
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<p id="2r9jZe">He can handle like a wing; his passing chops began to manifest last season, when he averaged 3.9 assists per game. Keep your eye on Draymond Green in the clip above. He claps his hands and shakes his head in frustration even before Davis lobs the ball to JaVale McGee. The play is over as soon as LeBron makes the entry pass. With the help defense rotating over to stop Davis’s drive, Avery Bradley is wide open for 3 and McGee is open for the lob. If the defense doesn’t help, then Davis is scoring. </p>
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<p id="jsDRAE">Davis’s playmaking minimizes the need for head coach Frank Vogel to lean on Rajon Rondo to generate offense when LeBron is off the floor. AD can be a creator. But the Lakers will rely heavily on LeBron and Davis to run the offense because of that dearth of options. Increased media attention means that LeBron’s and AD’s durability will get more coverage than other players with similar concerns, such as the Clippers’ stars. But the Clippers have more players who can effectively run an offense in the event of an injury. The Lakers don’t. Look for them to target Iguodala, who should eventually be available in the buyout market.</p>
<p id="fS72xC">This isn’t to say the Lakers have a bad supporting cast. Danny Green is established as one of the league’s best 3-and-D players; he will be LeBron’s best friend as a cutter and spot-up shooter. Bradley has hit 37.9 percent of his catch-and-shoot 3s in the past six seasons and can be a pest defending smaller guards. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is flawed but solid. Then you have competent shooters like Quinn Cook, Troy Daniels, and Alex Caruso; a reliable veteran in Jared Dudley; and a spark-plug scorer in Kyle Kuzma. I’m not the biggest Kuzma fan, but he gets buckets and tries hard on defense, even if he makes some goofy mistakes. If you just read the critiques of the Lakers’ bench, you’d think LeBron was still surrounded by Boobie Gibson and Sasha Pavlovic.</p>
<p id="UzY1hY">The Lakers are easy to poke fun at because their centers are McGee and Dwight Howard. But McGee is better than his reputation, and Howard needs only to play a limited role. These bigs give the Lakers lineup versatility. They can put Davis at the 5, with Kuzma and LeBron at forward to play more modern lineups. Or McGee or Howard can get plugged in at center if they want to go jumbo, like in a Finals series against a team like the Sixers. By the way, have you seen Dwight? He looks lean. He’s lost his plastic-action-figure shoulders, and he’s moving with a youthful fluidity. I’m not about to overreact to his preseason, but he looked capable of helping this team. All the Lakers really need from Dwight is to give them good minutes against opposing bigs like Nikola Jokic and Embiid, and to finish around the rim on cuts and rolls. The tough part for Howard will be to resist hijacking offensive possessions by demanding post-ups.</p>
<aside id="7XTWy9"><div data-anthem-component="readmore" data-anthem-component-data='{"stories":[{"title":"Will This Be LeBron James’s Revenge Year?","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nba/2019/10/1/20892017/lebron-james-los-angeles-lakers-michael-jordan-revenge"}]}'></div></aside><p id="ES2mFp">This team will go as far as LeBron’s and Davis’s health takes them. AD always seems to be dealing with some injury, and LeBron is almost 35 and has played 56,284 minutes in his career, which is more than any player ever through their first 16 years, including the playoffs. Whatever doubts there are about James’s durability are also the ones that make this season so interesting, and potentially historic for LeBron. Doubt once fueled Michael Jordan to a three-peat after he returned to basketball, and now LeBron is facing similar questions about his future. LeBron is ready for revenge, but his body will need to handle the burden as rising stars leading new contending teams come for his crown.</p>
<h3 id="339tQp">Predictions</h3>
<p id="eO9qWw"><strong>NBA Finals:</strong> Lakers over Sixers in 7<br><strong>Most Valuable Player:</strong> Stephen Curry, Warriors<br><strong>Rookie of the Year:</strong> Ja Morant, Grizzlies<br><strong>Most Improved Player of the Year:</strong> Caris LeVert, Nets<br><strong>Defensive Player of the Year:</strong> Anthony Davis, Lakers<br><strong>Sixth Man of the Year:</strong> Lou Williams, Clippers<br><strong>Coach of the Year: </strong>Michael Malone, Nuggets</p>
<p id="6jmf4G">Predictions are hard. A few missed games can drastically alter a player’s odds at earning votes—that’s why Morant gets the nod <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nba/2019/10/21/20925951/zion-williamson-surgery-6-to-8-weeks-absence">over Zion Williamson</a> here. But <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nba-preview/2019/10/21/20923923/nba-power-rankings-denver-miami-portland-finals-contenders">as discussed in Part 3</a> of this series, award voters historically love a good story. I bet on the Warriors being good, so I’d give Curry the edge over Giannis as MVP. LeVert, after his heartbreaking injury last season, looks geared for a big season next to Kyrie Irving. And while the Sixers should have the best defense in the league, Embiid probably won’t appear in enough games to earn the votes over another nominee like Davis.</p>
<p class="c-end-para" id="LAnx4Q">I can’t remember a time with more parity. It’s a reflection of the talent across the league. There are so many stars both young and old, and so much depth on each roster. It feels like anything is possible. Enjoy the ride.</p>
https://www.theringer.com/nba-preview/2019/10/22/20926094/nba-power-rankings-title-contenders-lebron-giannis-embiidKevin O'Connor2019-10-21T06:00:00-04:002019-10-21T06:00:00-04:00NBA Power Rankings, Day 3: The Teams on the Brink
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<p>These teams—including Denver, Portland, Miami, and Golden State—are one big trade or lucky break away from being serious Finals contenders </p> <p id="XuvlSL"><em>Basketball. Is. Back. I’m ranking all 30 teams and slotting them into tiers. After looking at the </em><a href="https://www.theringer.com/nba/2019/10/17/20917964/nba-season-tiers-power-ranking-bradley-beal-kevin-love"><em>teams eyeing the future</em></a><em> on Thursday and </em><a href="https://www.theringer.com/nba-preview/2019/10/18/20919923/nba-season-tiers-power-rankings-zion-williamson-luka-doncic"><em>teams at the crossroads</em></a><em> on Friday, today we’re focusing on teams on the brink of contention. These are the potential playoff teams—teams who could become real powerhouses with one big trade or one big break.</em></p>
<p id="ELdnz8"><em>That’s what makes this season so different. There are only a handful of teams in the West without any chance of making the playoffs, and virtually every team in the East could grab an honorary playoff spot as the 8-seed. It’s the first season in a long time when there’s not an overwhelming Finals favorite, or any clarity about which 16 teams will actually make the playoffs. So what happens in games during the long regular season will matter. We will get a season with twists and turns, more big trades, and lots of drama.</em></p>
<p id="7ZgFWG"><em>On Tuesday, we’ll finish this four-part series by looking at my top four teams in the league and season predictions. I’m offering up what I think will be the major talking points, story lines, or themes for each team for the next nine months. Let’s get this season started.</em></p>
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<h3 id="6icYSV">East Playoff Locks</h3>
<h5 id="yBHlLy">13. Indiana Pacers</h5>
<p id="rPttD1">This Pacers squad is weird. Victor Oladipo played five-on-five last Saturday, but there’s no timetable for his return to competitive action, as he recovers from a ruptured quad tendon in his right knee. Oladipo’s health looms over Indiana’s season. Even when he returns, is it really fair to expect him to regain his All-Star talent? Then you have the Domantas Sabonis situation; Indiana explored trades for him this past week, but ended up <a href="https://twitter.com/ShamsCharania/status/1186373077539737601">extending him</a> for four years and up to $85 million. There are a lot of new faces in town, and not a lot of continuity. Indy’s rotation <a href="https://www.nba.com/pacers/news/mcconnell-shaking-pacers-backcourt">isn’t even set yet</a>. This puzzle may not fit together, but I consider them a lock because this is the Eastern Freaking Conference; it’s a joke compared with the West, and the Pacers have the talent to overcome Oladipo’s absence.</p>
<p id="vfsVUQ">Malcolm Brogdon is the main reason. He’s best suited as a secondary option, next to Oladipo. But I’m interested to see what Brogdon can do when empowered to run more of the offense. He has long reminded me of Andre Miller, who once led the NBA in assists and was a longtime starting guard because of his reliable playmaking skill. Brogdon has the same “old man game,” and I’m confident in his ability to steady the ship. And he’ll make some spectacular plays while he’s doing it, like this sexy pass:</p>
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<p id="GIBg6E">As good as Oladipo is, he doesn’t accurately make many one-handed cross-court passes like this one by Brogdon. The Pacers have weapons for Brogdon to pass to, like returnees Sabonis, Doug McDermott, and Myles Turner, and newcomers T.J. Warren and Jeremy Lamb. The defense will be worse with these new guys, though. Lamb is a blah defender and Warren doesn’t even know what defense is. And unless Sabonis gets traded, there are fit questions next to Turner when those two share the floor because of Sabonis’s perimeter limitations. Turner will need to be even more ferocious when he’s protecting the rim for this team to once again be elite defensively.</p>
<p id="mlelzr">The Pacers need one of their young guys to pop, whether it’s Brogdon, Turner, or Sabonis. Otherwise, their future solely rests on whether Oladipo can return and make another leap. No guarantees of that. </p>
<h5 id="eBTi7t">12. Brooklyn Nets</h5>
<p id="jqorE5">For a moment, forget about Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant. Let’s look at the rest of this Nets roster that’s blooming with talent. Caris LeVert dribbles the ball like he’s changing time signature in a song. He herks and jerks, and stops and goes, until he sees an opening to attack. In preseason, he looked like the same emerging star that he was in the 2019 playoffs against the Sixers and pre-injury last season.</p>
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<p id="RHt7TE">LeVert could be good enough to lead the Nets to the playoffs. They also have Spencer Dinwiddie, a jumbo guard with no fear of big moments, and David Nwaba, a brick-wall defender and bulldozer on offense. Joe Harris is one of the league’s best shooters. Taurean Prince is a spark plug scorer at forward. Jarrett Allen is already a ballsy defender and an elite interior finisher, and DeAndre Jordan looks like he’s trying again on defense. Garrett Temple is a steady two-way player, and Rodions Kurucs and Dzanan Musa make for solid bench options.</p>
<p id="Nw23Mf">OK. <em>Now</em> add Irving to all that. Irving gives the Nets a star who uses sleight of hand on the basketball court to break ankles and score at the rim. He’s one of the hardest players to guard one-on-one, and now has a strong supporting cast that could lead to a career-best season. LeVert and Dinwiddie can amplify Irving’s potent off-ball shooting, while Irving’s mere presence will make their games easier.</p>
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<p id="qTQYWq">As good as D’Angelo Russell was, he’s no Irving, who’s far better at getting to the basket, drawing fouls, and pull-up shooting. Irving’s just a bigger threat, so I’m excited to see the type of looks Allen and Jordan get on the roll now that Irving is running point. Irving looks to be developing a solid chemistry with his bigs in Kenny Atkinson’s fast-paced, pick-and-roll-heavy scheme. This team will be a lot of fun to watch.</p>
<p id="f8v3vy">Then there’s the Durant factor. He’s out until very late in the season or next season while recovering from a ruptured right Achilles. Brooklyn can’t have true title aspirations until he’s back. There’s been a lot of talk about whether Durant will ever return to full strength following his injury. And there’s been an equal amount of chatter about whether Irving can ever lead a team again after his disastrous second season in Boston.</p>
<p id="sWw3g8">The Nets could really be special if everything breaks right. What if Irving is the good teammate he was during his first year in Boston? What if Durant returns full strength—or even near full strength? Irving and Durant are both elite, multidimensional scorers with playmaking skills. They have a track record of success at the highest level. They respect each other. The rest of the roster is deep with talent, some established, some emerging. If the Nets can get their All-Stars to align, they could be serious title contenders.</p>
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<h5 id="oxw0ny">11. Boston Celtics</h5>
<p id="QJUnvC">The Celtics are less talented than they were last season. Kemba Walker is taking over for Irving, and Al Horford left and was replaced by a crop of backup-caliber centers. They have some interesting young players in reserve, but youth historically doesn’t make for a consistently productive bench. I am bullish on the Celtics though because of their three forwards, all of whom can perfectly coexist with Kemba.</p>
<p id="3igKli">Gordon Hayward looked <em>a lot </em>more like his old self in preseason with aggressive drives to the rim and a quicker first step. I like how Brad Stevens used him in Horford’s old role by subbing him out early then putting him back in during the middle of the first quarter to run the second unit; playmaking is Hayward’s best skill.</p>
<p id="QDExkU">Jaylen Brown showed off an improved knack for sharp passing, too. I remain skeptical about Brown’s scoring upside, but he’s already a very good player.</p>
<p id="E8NrCL">Jayson Tatum remains an impactful two-way player and is taking smarter shots on offense, which could potentially lead to a leap. Walker needs a go-to scoring partner, and Tatum is the most likely candidate. Boston needs Tatum to pop if they have any hope of being an actual contender. In preseason, Tatum was inefficient when scoring but the types of shots he took were encouraging.</p>
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<p id="gT2hA7">Tatum would’ve pulled up for a jumper or settled for a floater before, but he’s shown more shake-and-bake getting to the rim. There was talk this summer that he was improving his attacking habits, and he’s walking the talk. He must keep it up. Shooting more 3s instead of deep 2s early in the clock is a nice bonus, too. The Celtics will need the points, especially considering their defense will be worse without Horford manning the paint. By the end of the season, Boston needs Walker-Tatum to become one of the league’s true scoring duos.</p>
<h5 id="KxzC2m">10. Miami Heat</h5>
<p id="Ejq2te">Summer league and preseason obviously don’t matter in the grand scheme of things, but I do find some value in them. <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nba-preview/2019/10/18/20920177/nba-preseason-2019-20-regular-season">Any professional game is part of the evaluation process</a>. You can notice trends and figure out how a coach might utilize a player. You can also check in on the developmental progress of younger players. In the case of Heat rookie wing Tyler Herro, I feel confident in saying that all I need is summer league and preseason to know that he has improved since his time at Kentucky, and I was wrong about him in the draft. I focused too much on Herro’s defensive weaknesses instead of his potential offensive strengths, and <a href="https://nbadraft.theringer.com/#tylerherro">I ranked him 27th</a> like a big dummy.</p>
<p id="UVwLuO">Herro has been the best rookie not named Zion Williamson (or maybe Nickeil Alexander-Walker) ever since the draft happened. Shots like this give me goosebumps:</p>
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<p id="LxFDCG">So many young players step into deep midrange jumpers, or stink at shooting from anywhere off the dribble. But Herro has clean footwork and a tight handle to side-step into 3s. It’s beautiful. Herro still has a lot to prove over larger sample size, but he’s already looking like an impact player on a playoff team. The Heat desperately needed floor spacing around Jimmy Butler, and Herro helps provide it with the added ability to do some stuff off the dribble. Butler will motor the offense, though; he’s a one-man show who can lead Miami to the playoffs as high as a 3-seed.</p>
<p id="tJ9iIi">The Heat don’t need to overtax Butler. There’s a lot of talent on this team, from ball handlers in Goran Dragic and Justise Winslow, to floor spacers in Kelly Olynyk and Duncan Robinson, to a super switchable big in Bam Adebayo. The pieces fit together well in Miami, and Pat Riley could also get aggressive in the trade market to improve the team.</p>
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<p id="J7pwOX">Would Kyle Lowry make sense? What would it take for Riley to go after Chris Paul? What if Riley kicks the tires on another Thunder player, Danilo Gallinari? Gallinari isn’t a primary ball handler like Paul, but he can get buckets off the dribble. Gallo’s expiring deal would let the Heat retain their cap space for a strong 2021 free-agent class. One thing’s clear: Miami’s good now and can get better later.</p>
<h3 id="8sx8BU">Potential Greatness</h3>
<h5 id="4SnlD1">9. Golden State Warriors</h5>
<p id="scAQG5">Kevin Durant left for Brooklyn. Klay Thompson is out until at least the All-Star break, and possibly longer, as he recovers from a torn ACL. Tested veterans have been replaced by unproven youngsters. People around the league actually think the Warriors could miss the playoffs in the loaded Western Conference. If Steph Curry can prove the doubters wrong and lead the Warriors to the postseason, he’ll have a strong case to win his third Most Valuable Player award, which would propel him up the all-time rankings.</p>
<p id="CmZhV1">Fair or not, voters typically love a good story. Curry would have a great one if he leads a team that replaced KD and Klay with D’Angelo Russell and some young guys to the playoffs. Winning it would make him only the ninth player ever to win at least three MVPs. Accolades or not for Steph, I’d bet on the Warriors being good. Russell has been a weirdly overlooked acquisition; he can both create for Curry and serve as a target. Draymond Green will play with a chip on his shoulder; if Thompson returns late in the season, and if the young kids on the team can make progress, this team has enough to compete for another championship. No matter what, just enjoy watching Steph; this year could be special.</p>
<p id="JevueP">Without Thompson and Durant, Warriors head coach Steve Kerr has no choice but to lean heavily on Curry. In four preseason games, Curry averaged 26.8 points on 16.8 shot attempts in 24.4 minutes—or 39.5 points and 24.7 shots per 36 minutes. These stats are comparable to what Steph posted when both Thompson and Durant were off the floor in recent years:</p>
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<p id="D9uCfU">The ingredients are there for Curry to outperform the historic numbers he posted in 2015-16: 30.1 points on 50-45-91 shooting with 6.7 assists on a 73-win team. Curry averaged 72.2 possessions per game that season; per the same amount of possessions, he would’ve averaged 33.7 points in the preseason. But as nice as projected numbers are, could Curry maintain them over a full season? The idea that he’ll be frequently double-teamed <a href="https://www.theringer.com/2019/6/8/18657848/toronto-raptors-steph-curry-defense">like he was in the Finals against the Raptors</a> is probably overblown, but he will receive increased defensive attention. And can Curry’s body handle the heavy workload? Ankle and knee injuries have been a problem over his career, so durability questions persist. Even if Curry stays healthy and owns offensively, the Warriors defense is a question mark. Andre Iguodala and Shaun Livingston helped stabilize that end of the floor, and now Draymond will need to cover for more youthful mistakes than ever. </p>
<h5 id="ooraT9">8. Portland Trail Blazers</h5>
<p id="wN7ewh">Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum need a boost, and Portland has the necessary salary fillers (Hassan Whiteside and Kent Bazemore) and the assets (Nassir Little, Zach Collins, future picks) to complete an impact trade. Dame and CJ are small, so it would make sense for that player to be a forward or a big. So far in this season-preview series, I’ve mentioned the following players as possible trade pieces: Kevin Love, Blake Griffin, Danilo Gallinari, Marc Gasol, and LaMarcus Aldridge. Blazers fans would do cartwheels down the streets of Portland if Woj reports any of those guys are on the trade block. This is a year for Neil Olshey to go all in.</p>
<p id="0A1Abr">The Blazers should be a playoff team even without a deal. They have lots of talent, continuity, and a good coach. This summer, they improved their shooting by trading Evan Turner for Bazemore and retaining Rodney Hood instead of Al-Farouq Aminu or Moe Harkless. I’m also quite high on Anfernee Simons, <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nba-preview/2019/9/25/20882272/seven-breakout-nba-players-dangelo-russell-jayson-tatum">whom I recently wrote about as a potential breakout player</a>. Simons gives the Blazers the bench scoring spark they lacked.</p>
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<p id="4SCsoM">The margin for error is so slim in the West that one turned ankle or one losing streak can cause a team to miss the playoffs. But the Blazers are equipped to be good again, and they’re close to being great.</p>
<h5 id="9l1SLl">7. Utah Jazz</h5>
<p id="v2UDnP">This is my favorite play from Utah’s preseason:</p>
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<p id="vaWlui">I like it because the five best players on the Jazz are all playing important roles. You have Joe Ingles and Bojan Bogdanovic both spacing the floor as knockdown 3-point shooters. Meanwhile, a trio makes the play. Rudy Gobert screens and rumbles down the lane as a destructive lob threat, then Donovan Mitchell sets a backscreen for Gobert then pops for a 3. Mike Conley orchestrates it all. Conley has long been one of the league’s most efficient pick-and-roll playmakers and scorers.</p>
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<p id="SK6PSX">He can hit dribble jumpers from anywhere, score at the rim, and create for others. In Utah, Mitchell will benefit the most. This preseason, 71.4 percent of Mitchell’s 3s were assisted, compared with only 58 percent last season. That’s good news: As a 40.1 percent shooter on spot-up 3s in his career, he’s much better when others feed him the ball. Conley will generate buckets for Mitchell, and head coach Quin Snyder will find more creative ways to get Mitchell the ball in more efficient positions to score.</p>
<p id="5vq5MF">Utah will have an elite defense once again. Their offense will be much better thanks to their new additions in Conley and Bogdanovic. Snyder is one of the NBA’s best coaches. They have depth and assets to get better. The Jazz are Finals sleepers, but maybe not for long.</p>
<h5 id="GWFCm6">6. Houston Rockets</h5>
<p id="zbZSWh">James Harden’s step-back is the modern version of the Kareem skyhook. I love Harden with all my heart, and I don’t care that so many people hate his style. Deal with it.</p>
<p id="TqVQRY">Houston will only get even wonkier this year. In preseason, the Rockets attempted a ludicrous 59.4 percent of their shots from 3. They probably won’t maintain that shot distribution, but should at least beat last season’s 51.9 percent. Their offense should kick ass again, but I do have some questions.</p>
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<p id="isuVKK">1. Where’s the depth? They have a shallow roster with no reliable support at forward behind P.J. Tucker. One turned ankle means they’ll get crushed by forward-driven teams like the Lakers or Clippers. The same is true at center: If Clint Capela goes down, his aging backups—Tyson Chandler or Nenê—will have to combine to play more than 35 minutes. Good luck.</p>
<p id="APJrWO">2. Will Mike D’Antoni survive? The Rockets fired nearly all of D’Antoni’s coaching staff, and he has only one year left on his contract. There has been no indication they want to retain him. I interviewed D’Antoni in August and he admitted that it’ll be a challenge to integrate so many new coaches, and since then he’s <a href="https://twitter.com/espn_macmahon/status/1180038818243563520">even openly joked</a> about his own job security. I have doubts that D’Antoni lasts the season if Houston gets off to a sluggish start.</p>
<p id="xhg086">3. Does friction between Daryl Morey and Tilman Fertitta continue? Morey hasn’t been allowed to go over the luxury tax ever since Fertitta took over as owner. Houston previously didn’t re-sign Trevor Ariza to avoid the tax, then Morey had to simultaneously play limbo and Twister to avoid it before the trade deadline earlier this year. Fertitta’s actions suggest he cares more about the bottom line than winning.</p>
<p id="aSLJom">4. How does Russell Westbrook adapt? In preseason, Westbrook looked like he was reading Houston’s sheet music, playing each note just as D’Antoni instructed. Here’s a play that illustrates Westbrook’s changing style:</p>
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<p id="fqGWgA">Marc Gasol sagged off of Westbrook as he turned the corner, and then Westbrook backed off. I would have bet my life on Westbrook taking that pull-up 2 with 16 seconds left on the clock in past seasons. Instead, Westbrook drove and kicked it out, which resulted in an open 3. Smart play.</p>
<p id="DTMGSp">Westbrook is also taking analytics-pleasing shots. In preseason, he took only 11 midrange shots compared to 26 shots coming from 3. </p>
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<p id="Succb1">But how long will this actually last? Will Westbrook fall back into old habits? And even if he does keep playing the way he’s told, how effective will he be really? Westbrook had nearly as many turnovers (21) as made shots (22) in preseason. He’s never been a reliable 3-point shooter and didn’t look any better in preseason. Harden is miles better than Westbrook as a playmaker. How long until D’Antoni turns Westbrook into a de facto off-ball player, and will Westbrook be happy playing that role?</p>
<p id="LFjSlQ">I want to see Westbrook finally become a winning player. But he hasn’t changed in years, and it would be foolish to expect him to now. Fortunately for the Rockets, they’ll be great as long as Harden is on the floor because he’s so special. Maybe things click for Westbrook, too. And we shouldn’t rule out Morey trying to make an all-in move for a star like he tried to do for Jimmy Butler last season. Just as long as Fertitta approves. It might be now or never for the Rockets to make this work, or else the whole thing will blow up.</p>
<h5 id="BM6UkL">5. Denver Nuggets</h5>
<p id="ifuO3f">Nikola Jokic brings so much joy to my life. I love the way he moves as if he’s wearing slippers in a bathroom. I love the way he passes the ball with the precision of Greg Maddux. I love that he’s chunky. Jokic is already one of my favorite players ever, and now he plays on a team that has a real shot of having a special season.</p>
<p id="22WUyK">Look up and down Denver’s roster and you’ll find talent. Jamal Murray and Gary Harris perfectly complement each other, and they both work seamlessly with Jokic pick-and-rolls as both ball handlers or screeners. Malik Beasley is their 3-and-D backup and an emerging on-ball presence; someone will drop the bag for him as a restricted free agent next summer. Mason Plumlee is one of the best backup centers in the game.</p>
<p id="7WDZwP">The Nuggets are loaded at wing and forward. Paul Millsap, Jerami Grant, Will Barton, and Torrey Craig look like they’ll get minutes if Mike Malone’s rotation in their recent dress rehearsal was any indication of his regular-season plans. That means Michael Porter Jr. and Juancho Hernangómez probably won’t even play to start the season. It’s a good problem to have for Malone, as long as chemistry issues don’t emerge.</p>
<p class="c-end-para" id="uSxouS">Nuggets president of basketball operations Tim Connelly could get clever with trades if he wants to consolidate talent and assets into one bigger piece. But more realistically, Denver will have to look within. At some point, Porter will have to be unleashed. At 6-foot-10 with hops, he showed off the same shot-creation flashes that made him a top high school prospect. He looked to be an attentive cutter, too. Perimeter shots didn’t fall for him, but he’s a proven potent shooter. Improving his defense will be the key to earning regular minutes, but once that happens he’ll offer a dynamic that could make Denver’s go-to players, Jokic and Murray, even deadlier. <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nba/2019/1/23/18193818/denver-nuggets-nikola-jokic-funky">Jokic and the funky Nuggets</a> are so close to breaking into the next tier.</p>
<p id="2bRehe"><em>Come back on Tuesday for a look at the final four: the two teams in Los Angeles, plus Milwaukee and Philadelphia. The season’s almost here!</em></p>
<p id="k8vaB1"><em>This piece was updated on Monday afternoon with details of Domantas Sabonis’s contract extension.</em></p>
https://www.theringer.com/nba-preview/2019/10/21/20923923/nba-power-rankings-denver-miami-portland-finals-contendersKevin O'Connor2019-10-18T05:20:00-04:002019-10-18T05:20:00-04:00NBA Power Rankings, Day 2: The Good Teams That Might Not Be Good Enough
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<p>A playoff seed will be hard to come by next season, especially in the West. Which teams will be left out? And which should consider pulling the plug and blowing things up? </p> <p id="IRmuzR"><em>Basketball. Is. Back. I’m ranking all 30 teams and slotting them into tiers. After looking at the </em><a href="https://www.theringer.com/nba/2019/10/17/20917964/nba-season-tiers-power-ranking-bradley-beal-kevin-love"><em>teams eyeing the future</em></a><em> on Thursday, today we’re focusing on young teams with playoff hopes, plus a large group of teams standing at the crossroads of contention. The league is filled with teams that should arguably be buyers or sellers depending on how they perform.</em></p>
<div class="c-float-left"><aside id="720Htk"><div data-anthem-component="readmore" data-anthem-component-data='{"stories":[{"title":"What the NBA Preseason Can Tell Us About the Regular Season","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nba-preview/2019/10/18/20920177/nba-preseason-2019-20-regular-season"},{"title":"The Five Biggest Names Left on the NBA Trade Market ","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nba-preview/2019/10/18/20920114/nba-trade-market-biggest-names-left"},{"title":"Making Sense of the Five Biggest Trending Topics of the NBA Preseason","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nba-preview/2019/10/18/20919741/nba-preseason-trending-topics-zion-pelicans-anthony-davis"}]}'></div></aside></div>
<p id="t0o3H7"><em>Usually, it’s quite clear what a team should do, whether it’s go all in or blow it up. But this season is different in that there are only a handful of teams in the West without any chance of making the playoffs, and virtually every team in the East could grab an honorary playoff spot as the 8-seed. It’s the first year in a long time when there’s not an overwhelming Finals favorite, or any clarity about which 16 teams will actually make the playoffs. So what happens in games during the long regular season will matter. We will get a season with twists and turns, more big trades, and lots of drama.</em></p>
<p id="uU1FrO"><em>On Monday and Tuesday, we’ll continue this four-part series by looking at the teams most likely to make deep playoff runs and my season predictions. I’m offering up what I think will be the major talking point, story line, or theme for each team for the next nine months. Let’s get started.</em></p>
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<h3 id="TnaS0N">West Playoff Hopefuls</h3>
<h5 id="bjL94s">22. Minnesota Timberwolves</h5>
<p id="LBcBve">Andrew Wiggins is going through a breakup. Let’s all be sensitive to his feelings here. It can’t be easy ending things with a high school sweetheart, but Wiggins had to dump the early-clock midrange jumper for the betterment of his career. At least he seems to be moving on quickly. This preseason, Wiggins received a ball in the midrange early in the clock and then dribbled behind the 3-point line to attempt his shot.</p>
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<p id="hIl94u">That really happened! </p>
<p id="6Q4coE">After ranking near the top of the NBA in midrange shot frequency in his career, Wiggins made a concerted effort to rid the much-maligned long 2 from his repertoire this preseason. It’s encouraging, to say the least. Now let’s just hope Wiggins doesn’t hook back up with the midrange, or else things could get real ugly, since there’s been a teamwide push to change styles in Minnesota.</p>
<p id="bjfgRd">New president of basketball operations Gersson Rosas comes from the Houston Rockets, and he’s embraced Daryl Morey’s analytics-driven philosophies. In training camp, the Wolves painted shot value numbers on their practice court to train players to value layups, free throws, and 3s. The players are adapting: The Wolves are taking 42.9 percent of their shots from 3 so far this preseason, which is the second-highest difference in the league compared to last season.</p>
<div class="c-float-left"><aside id="Lt24jT"><div data-anthem-component="readmore" data-anthem-component-data='{"stories":[{"title":"KAT’s Out of the Bag","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nba-preview/2019/10/16/20916201/karl-anthony-towns-minnesota-timberwolves"}]}'></div></aside></div>
<p id="5XBAW9">Does this mean the Wolves will be good? Well, no. Simply changing where they’re taking their shots doesn’t change a team’s fortunes on its own. Wiggins is the poster boy for their new style, but he’s still one of a bunch of ordinary players on this roster; Wiggins needs to get better at everything, not just scoring. It’s Karl-Anthony Towns who will <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nba-preview/2019/10/16/20916201/karl-anthony-towns-minnesota-timberwolves">determine just how great this team can be</a>. It’s hard to find another player on Minnesota’s roster who’s remotely a second option, unless Wiggins makes a leap or rookie Jarrett Culver steps up. Towns can stroke 3s, bang inside, flush lobs, and attack off the dribble. And in coach Ryan Saunders’s system, he could be even better by using pick-and-pops to take 3s instead of midrange shots, and more spacing could make him an even more potent post threat. But the Wolves need him to do more than score.</p>
<p id="RFVO0R">Saunders <a href="http://www.startribune.com/q-amp-a-with-wolves-coach-ryan-saunders-ready-for-a-drama-free-beginning/561646552/">said</a> he wants to run more offense through Towns, which suggests he’ll be empowered to be a playmaker. The Wolves need Towns to do it all: score, create, and defend. We’re about to find out whether he can handle the load. </p>
<h5 id="8cyIXX">21. Sacramento Kings</h5>
<p id="FPUL7E">I don’t trust you if you don’t like the Kings. What is there not to like? De’Aaron Fox is an energizer. Buddy Hield is a flamethrower from 3. Bogdan Bogdanovic is immune to pressure. Then there’s Marvin Bagley III and a bunch of solid veterans like Harrison Barnes, Trevor Ariza, and Dewayne Dedmon. For the first time in a long time, the Kings have real hopes for making the playoffs. The hard part will be living up to the hype.</p>
<p id="l87Ndy">The Kings fueled their modest success last season with a breakneck pace led by Fox, but they still had the league’s 21st-ranked defense and 17th-ranked offense. That amounted to 39 wins (sadly somehow their high mark since 2005-06). They’re young and inexperienced in a loaded conference. Um, maybe competing for the playoffs should suffice? I’d bet that’s all it’s gonna be anyway.</p>
<div class="c-float-right"><aside id="Hnkdwx"><div data-anthem-component="readmore" data-anthem-component-data='{"stories":[{"title":"The Sacramento Kings Have Some Decisions to Make","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nba/2019/10/16/20918134/sacramento-kings-buddy-hield-bogdan-bogdanovic-extensions"}]}'></div></aside></div>
<p id="cmYUKx">I hope Hield keeps progressing as an on-ball scorer. Bagley needs to start defending. Even Luke Walton needs to develop as an X’s-and-O’s coach. And Fox needs to make another big leap—he couldn’t put the ball in the basket as a rookie, but drastically improved last season as a shooter and at-rim finisher. Fox still ranked only in the 33rd percentile for scoring efficiency in the half court last season, which played a big role in Sacramento’s struggles in a set offense; the team ranked 20th in scoring efficiency last season, per Synergy. The exhilarating coast-to-coast finishes give you a natural high, but it’s the stuff in the half court that leads to winning—and maybe someday, winning deep in the playoffs.</p>
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<h5 id="XLAx7c">20. Dallas Mavericks</h5>
<p id="bVOMbB">Rick Carlisle is getting funky with his new 7-foot-1 big man who shoots like a wing. Watch this after-timeout play that Carlisle designed for Kristaps Porzingis:</p>
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<p id="nJJmos">Porzingis sprinted through a screen, faked a cut to the basket, then popped back out for a 3. Nasty. Had the Bucks overplayed the 3, he would have kept going toward the rim and flushed a lob dunk. That’s what happened in a different set against Oklahoma City:</p>
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<p id="lOU8Aa">Thunder center Nerlens Noel started to inch over the first screen, assuming that Porzingis would go through it, and KP made a proper read to cut. Then Luka Doncic delivered a dime. Porzingis has long had the ability to shoot off of screens; the difference now is he has Carlisle, an elite X’s-and-O’s coach, and Doncic, an elite playmaker. I just spent a few days in Dallas and talked with Doncic, Porzingis, and Mark Cuban, so if you’d like to learn more about how the Mavericks are ready to compete for the playoffs, and how they’ll build moving forward, <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nba-preview/2019/10/14/20912920/dallas-mavericks-kristaps-porzingis-luka-doncic-interview">click here</a> to read my feature on the Mavs.</p>
<h5 id="GTTFVd">19. New Orleans Pelicans</h5>
<p id="4rPDCp">The Pelicans went through so much drama with Anthony Davis, but the basketball gods blessed them with a second chance at a superstar in Zion Williamson. So far this preseason, coach Alvin Gentry is taking full advantage of the new opportunity.</p>
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<p id="2i3yt5">Gentry is getting creative with Zion. In the clip above, he unleashes Williamson by having the ball handler and screener decoy a high pick-and-roll. The center rolls, then sets a screen for Zion, who curls toward the middle of the floor. Williamson is a handful to stop when he’s rumbling downhill, so the goal here is to keep him in motion toward the rim.</p>
<div class="c-float-right"><aside id="b7Ysls"><div data-anthem-component="readmore" data-anthem-component-data='{"stories":[{"title":"Zion Is Having One of the Best Preseasons in History","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nba-preview/2019/10/17/20918102/zion-williamson-nba-new-orleans-pelicans"}]}'></div></aside></div>
<p id="YhD2Rv">The interesting wrinkle to this play is that if Williamson was better covered, there would’ve been space for him to dump the ball off to his center, Jahlil Okafor. Playmaking is one of the more overlooked areas of Zion’s game, and Gentry is already putting him in position to show it off. You’ll find Williamson screening and rolling, then kicking the ball out. Once the ball is in his hands, he naturally forces the defense to rotate, and that opens up passing lanes for him to find open shooters.</p>
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<p id="cSZ4RO">Zion is throwing fastballs for strikes, even when he’s delivering the ball from an off-balance stance. His ability to pass in any direction is impressive, too; he fires one pass to Brandon Ingram toward the right corner, then the other to Frank Jackson in the left corner. Some players struggle to see and make passes in one direction or the other, but so far Williamson is showing a blend of passing velocity and vision that’s beyond his years.</p>
<p id="rCiCWY">Hype was already at a fever pitch when the Pelicans jumped to no. 1 on lottery night and landed Zion, but the first few glimpses of Williamson on the NBA stage have somehow raised the bar even higher. The Pelicans could make a playoff run this season, and if more good things come their way in the future, they’ll absolutely be in Finals contention for years to come.</p>
<h3 id="1axS8B">At the Crossroads</h3>
<h5 id="t8cAGe">18. Detroit Pistons</h5>
<p id="GrNllT">Blake Griffin kicked ass last season, posted career-best numbers, and was named to his fifth All-NBA team. But I would explore trading him. Griffin’s injury history is too long, too scary, and it has already sapped him of his gravity-defying hops. He’s 30. He’ll cost $110.2 million through the next three seasons. The best time to quietly explore trading any player is when they still have value, and the risk of a major injury or further physical decline is greater than any benefit of keeping him when the Pistons are stuck in the dreaded middle.</p>
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<p id="ApD4IH">Teams are smart and know the risks involved in trading for Griffin, so I can’t imagine there would be a ton of suitors. But if Griffin is shining again and healthy when January or February comes around, who says Portland wouldn’t want to go all in on this season? Or what if the Heat opt to target a big instead of a guard, since Jimmy Butler handles the ball so much anyway? The Clippers didn’t need to create a bidding war to get good value from the Pistons for Griffin, and neither would the Pistons if they opt to flip him to a team with a better shot of winning it all.</p>
<p id="TrHxmg">I doubt this will happen. The Pistons remain in win-now mode. They signed Joe Johnson, Derrick Rose, and Markieff Morris—three older veterans to help bolster their depth around Griffin and Andre Drummond. Rookie Sekou Doumbouya is barely even playing in preseason. Luke Kennard is pushed off the ball too often with Rose and Reggie Jackson taking primary shot-creation duties. Their front office moves indicate it’s more probable they attempt to flip these young guys and future picks for the best player that becomes available in a trade. I just don’t think this team is good enough for it to be worth it in the long run.</p>
<h5 id="raJ3uC">17. Oklahoma City Thunder</h5>
<p id="uws6GY">I know, this is a high ranking for a team that just traded away two All-NBA players and should be in tanking mode, but until they actually make some trades, they’ll be in the playoff conversation. Other than depth at forward, this team still has plenty of talent. But league sources fully expect the Thunder to explore trading Chris Paul and Danilo Gallinari to continue their rebuild following the Russell Westbrook and Paul George blockbusters this summer. Trading Gallinari wouldn’t be difficult, provided he’s healthy. Finding a new home for Paul will be tough. He’s 34, has an injury history, and is owed $124 million over the next three years. That deal is terrifying. Paul can help himself and the Thunder out by excelling this season. All it takes is one team to bite.</p>
<p id="eIf6ng">It may not happen for Paul or OKC, which has a crowded backcourt that features Paul, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Dennis Schröder. My editor Chris Ryan half-jokingly calls them the “three-headed hydra,” and I actually don’t mind it. While Gilgeous-Alexander is best on the ball, it’s not necessarily a bad idea for him to get off-ball reps. Ideally, OKC would have a multi-creator offense anyway. What do we always hear about offenses? You want as many guys who can create with the ball in their hands as possible. Well, the Thunder can have three on the floor at once. </p>
<h5 id="j3tLBI">16. Toronto Raptors</h5>
<p id="hIXVaf">Congratulations to the defending champion Toronto Raptors for the greatest one-hit season in league history. Kawhi’s gone, and soon the other veterans who made last season’s improbable run possible could follow him out the door. Masai Ujiri wanted to rebuild as soon as he took the Raptors gig in 2013, and the expectation around the league is that he will, finally, take that opportunity. Kyle Lowry has two years and $64.3 million left on his contract (after recently signing a <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nba/2019/10/7/20903019/kyle-lowry-toronto-raptors-extension">one-year extension</a>), while Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka have just this season remaining. Could Gasol do for another team what he did for Toronto last season? And why would a team in need of a point guard upgrade—such as the Pistons or Heat—pursue CP3 if Lowry could be available?</p>
<p id="mmZcu2">The question really is whether Toronto will be too good to tear down. Should a high-impact player become available, why wouldn’t the Raptors be buyers? They have the aforementioned expiring salaries, plus young pieces, and all their future first-round picks to dangle in a trade. Ujiri wasn’t afraid to go for it all before. Why not do it again?</p>
<h5 id="NXwyru">15. Orlando Magic</h5>
<p id="GWADtD">I’m confused by the Magic this season. On one hand, they ranked first in defensive rating over their final 37 games last season. But on the other hand, teams typically ease up in the second half of the season as they make vacation plans or wait for the playoffs. Were they not getting each opponent’s best effort? What should we make of Kawhi Leonard and the Raptors making quick work of them in the first round of the playoffs? I lean toward the Magic being really good on defense.</p>
<p id="skw64q">And as good as Orlando is on that side of the ball, Jonathan Isaac is the biggest reason. Isaac plays defense like he’s possessed by the spirit of Andrei Kirilenko. He roams off the ball like a safety in football:</p>
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<p id="S70gGo">Relax, man! It’s just preseason, but Isaac can’t be switched off. He’s as much of a pest in man-to-man situations, whether he’s up against guards, wings, or bigs. He’s a deterrent who not only alters shots but prevents them since he’s so long and smart. He’s rarely in the wrong position, and even when he is, he’s so athletic that he can make up for it.</p>
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<p id="Lj9NRa">Isaac slides over the screen like a guard to prevent Jayson Tatum from attacking the rim, then helps stop Gordon Hayward’s drive before heavily contesting Tatum’s shot. All-Defensive teams are in Isaac’s future.</p>
<p id="4IQc6s">Mo Bamba, one of the many long-armed Magic players, finishes off Tatum by swatting the ball out of bounds. Bamba, the no. 6 overall pick last year, might not be good yet, but he’s still only 21. If he makes progress, Nikola Vucevic may suddenly become a more expendable player for a piece of greater need, such as a go-to scoring guard.</p>
<p id="7NXW5l">We haven’t even mentioned Khem Birch, who was better than Bamba last season. Or Markelle Fultz, who still looks like he’s starring in <em>Bird Box </em><a href="https://www.theringer.com/nba-preview/2019/9/25/20884455/markelle-fultz-orlando-magic">on offense</a> but at least has excellent defensive potential. Or Aaron Gordon, who is one of the most underrated defenders in the game. I wrote about Gordon last month <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nba-preview/2019/9/25/20882272/seven-breakout-nba-players-dangelo-russell-jayson-tatum">as a potential breakout player</a>; the Magic need him to pop on offense. Otherwise, trades will need to be made using expendable pieces and picks to find a scorer. Until then, they’ll just be hard to score <em>on</em>. </p>
<h5 id="gxUoym">14. San Antonio Spurs</h5>
<p id="kGXBf7">Much like Gregg Popovich pivoting to the midrange when 3s are all the rage, I’m high on the Spurs when many others think the San Antonio dynasty is all but over. Granted, I had doubts about the Spurs just 19 months ago when I <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nba/2018/3/8/17095658/san-antonio-spurs-end-of-dynasty-kawhi-leonard">wrote an article</a> titled “No, Seriously This Time: Is This the End of the Spurs’ Dynasty?”</p>
<p id="KEE0TB">In it, I detailed the imminent challenges facing the Spurs: Kawhi Leonard’s status, the lack of young talent, and an aging core. Those questions are being answered now. Kawhi is gone and the team is now rich with young talent. Dejounte Murray and Derrick White are two elite defensive players in the backcourt, while Lonnie Walker IV could develop into a go-to scoring wing. Luka Samanic and Keldon Johnson project as reliable role players. Trey Lyles was a low-risk, high-reward signing this summer. Jakob Poeltl is a rock-solid center. Kudos to the Spurs for going young.</p>
<p id="nb1rfS">We also know the Spurs won 48 games last season despite losing numerous players to injuries, most notably Murray to a torn ACL before the season began. And they won a lot <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nba/2019/1/3/18166331/san-antonio-spurs-kawhi-pop-derozan-aldridge">by playing drastically different styles</a>, focusing on the midrange when one or both of LaMarcus Aldridge and DeMar DeRozan were on the floor, and playing a modernized style with their fast and feisty reserve units led by Patty Mills and Bryn Forbes.</p>
<p id="yTSfSh">The Spurs will be competitive again this season. Murray could elevate their defense to a typical Spursian level, and DeRozan now has a full year of experience in Popovich’s system. If the Spurs are really, really good, is there any logic to them cashing in one of their young players and assets for a high-level veteran to maximize this core? Time is running out on their best players: DeRozan, 30, has a player option worth $27.7 million for the final season of his contract, and Aldridge, 34, has only $7 million of his $24 million guaranteed for next season. Other veterans like Mills, Rudy Gay, and DeMarre Carroll can also be free agents by 2021. Or, if the Spurs slip this season, would they become a team that instead trades those veterans to build young?</p>
<p class="c-end-para" id="1TnxzN">There are a lack of proven stars available on the market. If the Spurs were to put, say, Aldridge on the table, why would a team not want to take a flyer on him? He’s an elite post presence and a good defender; having a true big would be a requirement to get through Joel Embiid and the Sixers, or Anthony Davis and the Lakers. Plus, Aldridge has a team-friendly contract due to his nonguaranteed salary for next year. If the Spurs want to cash in, they can become instant contenders. But if they want to cash out, they could bolster their efforts to sustain the dynasty. </p>
https://www.theringer.com/nba-preview/2019/10/18/20919923/nba-season-tiers-power-rankings-zion-williamson-luka-doncicKevin O'Connor2019-10-17T05:50:00-04:002019-10-17T05:50:00-04:00NBA Power Rankings, Day 1: The Tankers, the Rebuilders, and the Disasters
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<p>The NBA season is right around the corner and the title race is more wide open than it’s been in years. But that doesn’t matter for these teams, the franchises in various stages of falling apart and putting it back together. </p> <p id="dc88w8"><em>Basketball. Is. Back. I’m ranking all 30 teams and slotting them into tiers. Today, we’ll look at the teams eyeing the future. These are the franchises that would just simulate the season if they could in order to get to the draft lottery and the summer. But real life isn’t a video game, and real basketball will be played. Fortunately, even most bad teams have a lot to get excited about.</em></p>
<p id="JxQ7Mp"><em>That’s what makes this season different. There are only a handful of teams in the West without any chance of making the playoffs, and virtually every team in the East could grab an honorary playoff spot as the 8-seed. It’s the first year in a long time when there’s not an overwhelming Finals favorite, or any clarity about which 16 teams will make the playoffs. So what happens in games during the long regular season will really matter. We’re going to get a season with twists and turns, more big trades, and lots of drama.</em></p>
<p id="sxBCMw"><em>On Friday, we’ll look at teams that could rise or fall. Then on Monday and Tuesday, we’ll look at the teams most likely to make deep playoff runs and my season predictions. For each franchise, I’m offering up what I think will be the major talking point, story line, or theme that will hover over the team for the next nine months. Let’s get started.</em></p>
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<h3 id="XgBmA6">Press Fast-Forward</h3>
<h4 id="kdWkKp">30. Charlotte Hornets</h4>
<p id="a15c1E">Head coach James Borrego has <a href="https://sports.yahoo.com/former-celtics-guard-terry-rozier-012821841.html">said</a> that Terry Rozier will probably play around 34 minutes per game, which is coachspeak for “we are tanking the hell out of this season.” What other choice do the Hornets really have? They have the worst roster in the NBA. It’s gonna be an ugly year, though tanking sure beats being stuck in the dreaded middle. The Kemba Walker era created wonderful memories, but it’s time for the Hornets to start thinking about tomorrow. The team was going nowhere. They’ll have high lottery odds whether they tank or just straight up suck. Miles Bridges and PJ Washington have talent, and I’m not giving up on Malik Monk. But this team needs to find a new face of the franchise in the draft. If only they could skip to the draft lottery.</p>
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<h4 id="KjD2eA">29. Washington Wizards</h4>
<p id="xqpsHB">Bradley Beal signed a two-year, $72 million extension with the Wizards on Thursday morning, according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski. It comes as something of a surprise when you look down the Wizards bench and see John Wall wearing street clothes while he recovers from a ruptured Achilles. Or you look at the floor and see Beal surrounded by a bunch of misfits and castaways. Or you realize that every contender would have loved to add him to its lineup. But Beal’s decision is a sign of loyalty to the franchise and to his longtime backcourt partner, Wall; signing this extension aligns his contract with Wall’s through the 2022-23 season.</p>
<p id="1w8mHo">New Wizards general manager Tommy Sheppard had resisted trade offers for Beal, and for good reason. He’s only 26 and has gotten better every season. Even if his skills stay the same, he’s a top-25 player in the NBA. Beal can plug into any system with any type of star player because he’s so adaptable. Have a ball-dominant player? Beal can stroke spot-up 3s, run off of screens, cut, and serve as a secondary ball handler. Need a go-to scorer? Beal can do that, too, as he showed last season when he ran more pick-and-roll and used more isolations after Wall was sidelined.</p>
<p id="ZFsoEA">Beal was coveted because of his adaptability, and teams across the league were hoping he would become available. His decision to re-sign changes the trade landscape. Teams looking to make a big move to swing the title picture will have to look elsewhere, but there are few, and possibly no, high-impact players like Beal available on the trade market. Instead, Sheppard and the Wizards will be able to build around Beal, Wall, and rookie lottery pick Rui Hachimura. Beal’s decision gives the Wizards more time. That’s all they could ask for.</p>
<h4 id="FjQIlw">28. Cleveland Cavaliers</h4>
<p id="lDZyHB">Much of what’s true for Washington is true for Cleveland, except Kevin Love lacks the same value that Beal has. He’s older, has more years remaining on his contract, and has suffered more major injuries. He is not in the same class as Beal as a player, though he can still make positive contributions with his shooting, playmaking, and rebounding. The Cavaliers are interesting with or without Love. They have frisky prospects like Darius Garland and Collin Sexton; it wouldn’t shock me if by the end of the season, Garland is an All-Rookie player. And, speaking of rookies, don’t sleep on rookies Kevin Porter Jr. and Dylan Windler. The Cavs could be a fun bad team!</p>
<h4 id="ZT2MYG">27. Phoenix Suns</h4>
<p id="xHMKWD">The rap on Devin Booker is that he’s a ball hog who puts up big stats on losing teams. He didn’t help himself by throwing a fit over getting double-teamed during an offseason scrimmage. But at this point, Booker is underrated. After playing exclusively as an off-ball shooter at Kentucky, Booker has rounded out his game and can now threaten defenses as a shot creator.</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">“Hey bro we not doubling in open gym. I get that s--t all season. Come on man. Let’s work on our game.” - Devin Booker at an open run. (via <a href="https://twitter.com/swishcultures_?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@swishcultures_</a>) <a href="https://t.co/8hgKFLo4ak">pic.twitter.com/8hgKFLo4ak</a></p>— House of Highlights (@HoHighlights) <a href="https://twitter.com/HoHighlights/status/1163641139989229568?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 20, 2019</a>
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<p id="n5UwOe">Booker isn’t a pure passer, though, so Phoenix sought a point guard this offseason. The Suns had hoped to land D’Angelo Russell but ended up <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nba-preview/2019/10/11/20909208/ricky-rubio-summer-spain-fiba-mvp-gold-medal-phoenix-suns">settling for Ricky Rubio</a>, signing him to a three-year, $51 million deal. I was a bit puzzled by the choice; three years seems like too much since Rubio isn’t an ideal fit next to Booker because he struggles as an off-ball shooter. But it’ll be fascinating to see what a pure point guard can do to reveal a more well-rounded side of Booker, while also hopefully creating easier shots for Deandre Ayton.</p>
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<p id="MqK5sf">This play got me very excited. The Suns ran a double screen with Booker popping and Ayton rolling, then Rubio throwing the lob. Maybe Rubio’s veteran experience could be an aggregate positive for the Suns if he’s helping Ayton develop and reviving Booker’s dormant skills. If the rest of Phoenix’s young roster—Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson, and Dario Saric—makes strides, then they could still be the Bright Future Suns after all.</p>
<h3 id="zl9QQX">Hopeful Rebuilding</h3>
<h4 id="8j2aKD">26. Memphis Grizzlies</h4>
<p id="leUVHG">The lack of hype around Ja Morant is a bit weird. I get that he’s on a small-market team. I get that he didn’t play in summer league. I get that he’s not Zion Williamson. But, dude, have you seen this guy pass?</p>
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<p id="GmCzIy">Morant is such a shifty ball handler, and he’s so smart. He consciously jumps here to make the defender contest his shot, except he’s not shooting. He jumped to bait the defender, freeing up Jaren Jackson Jr. for a dunk. This is advanced stuff. One more pass, please:</p>
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<p id="WbxSBQ">I mean, come on. Morant goes behind the back then soars in the air while palming the ball and fires a bull’s-eye to Kyle Anderson, who swings the ball to Dillon Brooks. Brooks misses, but at least he had an open chance thanks to Morant’s ludicrous pass.</p>
<p id="mC1jEQ">Morant’s perimeter game needs to improve, but there’s no doubt he’ll make an immediate impact as a passer. And he has juicy pick-and-roll weapons in fellow rookie Brandon Clarke, an explosive lob threat, and Jackson, who can pop or roll. We will be watching Jackson and Morant grow together for years to come. The Grizzlies aren’t ready to qualify for the playoffs, but this trio will make them one of the league’s must-watch young teams.</p>
<h4 id="Z0CO8d">25. New York Knicks</h4>
<p id="4LZTde">Kevin Durant said recently “the cool thing right now is not the Knicks.” He’s right. The Knicks have won an average of 33 games per season this century—the worst in the NBA. A whole generation of fans has grown up with the Knicks sucking. Who could blame Durant and Kyrie Irving for choosing Brooklyn? After Plan A—landing at least Durant, if not Durant and Irving—failed, the Knicks had an imperfect summer, and they took a lot of heat for it. But despite the harsh criticism they received, their forward-thinking decisions were at least a step in the right direction.</p>
<p id="0rufbs">New York didn’t waste its cap space by signing to long-term contracts players who couldn’t make it a winner, just for the sake of adding a bigger name. The Knicks added some hard-nosed dudes, like Marcus Morris and Taj Gibson, who’ll make them look at least competent as they develop their young talent. It’s all about the kids, anyway: The Knicks are building for the early 2020s, a time when their youth should be developed and still on their rookie deals. By then, an improved team and financial flexibility could make them appealing to free agents. Consider that the Knicks can enter the 2021 offseason with the following players still on their rookie contracts: RJ Barrett, Kevin Knox, Mitchell Robinson, and whoever they select using their three first-round picks in the next two strong draft classes. They could create one max slot and still retain Julius Randle and Frank Ntilikina or Dennis Smith Jr. Or they could flip some players. Or maybe they could let all three walk in free agency and sign two players instead. The point is that New York has a bunch of young talent with more coming over the next two drafts and can create a lot of financial flexibility. The Knicks are set up to be cool again, just as long as James Dolan doesn’t screw it all up.</p>
<h4 id="GpJlrc">24. Atlanta Hawks</h4>
<p id="EpvSZD">Here’s one thing I know for sure: Travis Schlenk has real guts. You’d have to in order to make the kinds of risky moves he has since becoming general manager of the Hawks in 2017. Schlenk essentially traded Luka Doncic, Jaxson Hayes, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and other draft assets for Trae Young, De’Andre Hunter, and Cam Reddish. It doesn’t look like a smart swap on paper, yet you analyze the current roster and it makes sense. <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nba/2019/6/21/18700640/atlanta-hawks-2019-nba-draft-deandre-hunter-cam-reddish-trae-young">The Hawks are building</a> precisely the type of team you’d want to put around a transcendent playmaker like Young, with versatile wings in Hunter and Reddish, a sharpshooter in Kevin Huerter, and a bouncy big in John Collins.</p>
<p id="9qfRu3">Young is entering his second season but is already one of the league’s best passers. He can conduct a symphony with the players around him, in a fun, fast-paced offense coached by Lloyd Pierce. There’s no doubt this team is on the rise, and it shouldn’t shock anyone if they fight for a low playoff seed in the weak Eastern Conference.</p>
<p id="DP1cCu">One note of caution for a team that clearly plans to put the ball in Young’s hands a ton: Young needs to prove he’s a better shooter than his reputation would suggest. He is often discussed as a potential Steph Curry–like threat because of his propensity for firing deep 3s, but Young has never shot higher than 36 percent from 3 in college or the pros, while Curry has never shot worse than 38.7 percent. Young has soft touch on tricky layups, floaters, and free throws, so I hope he’s just a late bloomer from downtown. But it’s hard to totally buy in until he proves it.</p>
<h4 id="pIrfsQ">23. Chicago Bulls</h4>
<p id="6xvorD">The Bulls took baby steps in recent years and have officially graduated to this tier now that they’re ready to compete for the postseason. It’s not saying much, since the East is weak. But we’re about to see what they can do with real stakes. This team isn’t too shabby, either. Say what you will about Zach LaVine’s J.R. Smith–style tendencies, but he’s a scorer who has been empowered this preseason to carry Chicago’s offense. The roster around him is coming together: The Bulls’ five best young players include talented bigs in Lauri Markkanen and Wendell Carter Jr., a stabilizing two-way forward in Otto Porter Jr., and another scoring guard in Coby White. With some veterans like Thad Young and Tomás Satoransky sprinkled in, the Bulls will be in the mix for the playoffs. But here’s the most pressing question: How does Lauri fit into the offensive equation?</p>
<p id="CCgvYe">Markkanen isn’t a shot creator like LaVine or White. LaVine will lead the team in touches and shots this season, and if White shoots like he has in preseason, he’ll put up volume numbers. Even Porter has been empowered to handle the ball more frequently on the break and in the pick-and-roll. Porter isn’t a star playmaker, but he’s a better passer than Markkanen. Bulls head coach Jim Boylen often has to relegate Markkanen to a basic pick-and-pop or spot-up shooting role.</p>
<p id="iO7N4X">That’s a gross underutilization of Markkanen’s offensive talent. He can run off screens for 3s, attack the basket off the dribble, and handle the ball in the pick-and-roll. I wasn’t particularly high on Markkanen in his draft because of his limitations as a defender, rebounder, and passer. But there’s no denying his scoring potency, and it’s an open question whether there will be enough opportunity for his strengths to manifest in Chicago.</p>
<p class="c-end-para" id="hy6HGs">It’s only Markkanen’s third season, but he’s had problems with injuries and could stand to be more aggressive. Entering the season, it’s clear he falls behind LaVine, White, and possibly Porter in the hierarchy—which makes sense now, but may not down the line if the franchise wants to keep rising from the bottom. As promising as the Bulls are, should they invest more in Markkanen?</p>
<p id="e6GW5B"><em>This piece was updated at 11:10 a.m. ET on October 17 with additional information about Bradley Beal’s extension.</em></p>
https://www.theringer.com/nba/2019/10/17/20917964/nba-season-tiers-power-ranking-bradley-beal-kevin-loveKevin O'Connor