The Ringer - 2019 NFL Preseason Power Rankings 2019-09-05T08:33:35-04:00http://www.theringer.com/rss/stream/206131942019-09-05T08:33:35-04:002019-09-05T08:33:35-04:00NFL Preseason Power Rankings, Part 4: Philly Special Is Back and Ready for Round 2
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<p>Can the Packers’ new coach bring Aaron Rodgers back to form? Will the Browns’ exciting pieces actually come together? And where does Patrick Mahomes fit into all of this?</p> <p class="p--has-dropcap" id="GWYnG5">We did it, folks. After seven long months, the NFL offseason is finally over. There’s a real, meaningful game Thursday night, and to prep, it’s time to finish off the preseason power rankings series that we’ve been putting out over the past four days. Today’s group is pretty straightforward: These are the best teams in the NFL, the ones who’ve assembled the most complete rosters and positioned themselves to have the inside track to the Lombardi Trophy. Hurry up and dig in, because kickoff will be here before you know it. </p>
<h3 id="GIxeyn">8. Green Bay Packers</h3>
<p id="tDwhrd"><strong>2018 record: </strong>6-9-1 <br><strong>2018 DVOA: </strong>Seventh on offense; 29th on defense </p>
<p id="t98Djy"><strong>Best-case scenario: </strong>It’s the dawn of a new era in Green Bay. Mike McCarthy was fired in December after 13 years as the Packers head coach and a second straight nightmare season. Many placed the blame for the team’s recent struggles on McCarthy’s spread-out, stagnant offense. Others have contended that Aaron Rodgers may not be a truly elite quarterback. We’re about to find out which side was right. First-year head coach Matt LaFleur’s scheme couldn’t be more different from McCarthy’s. As the coordinator in Tennessee last season, LaFleur used shotgun on just 51 percent of snaps—the sixth-lowest <a href="https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/snap-rates--shotgun-v-under-center--off-.html">rate</a> in the NFL. Green Bay clocked in at 71 percent in 2018, which was the seventh-<em>highest </em>mark. The Packers also ranked dead last in rushing rate at 33 percent; Tennessee, at 48 percent, finished second. </p>
<div class="c-float-left"><aside id="iWVjqp"><div data-anthem-component="readmore" data-anthem-component-data='{"stories":[{"title":"NFL Preseason Power Rankings, Part 3: The Seahawks’ Stock Is Up, and the Texans’ … We’ll See","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nfl-preview/2019/9/4/20848036/preseason-power-rankings-part-3-falcons-cowboys-bears"},{"title":"NFL Preseason Power Rankings, Part 2: Striking Gold or Out of Luck? ","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nfl-preview/2019/9/3/20844924/preseason-power-rankings-part-2-broncos-49ers-ravens"},{"title":"NFL Preseason Power Rankings, Part 1: Fish Tanking, Frostbite, and a New York State of Dread","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nfl-preview/2019/9/2/20841382/preseason-power-rankings-part-1-giants-raiders-jets-cardinals"}]}'></div></aside></div>
<p id="JkzKmf">The most important disparity as it relates to Rodgers, though, may be LaFleur’s incorporation of play-action. Rodgers used play-action on just 20.1 percent of his dropbacks last season, the second-lowest mark in the NFL among qualified quarterbacks. Titans QB Marcus Mariota ranked fourth at 31.3 percent. A lot has been made about how much freedom Rodgers will have to change plays pre-snap, and how the QB will do with his back to the line of scrimmage more often in play-action. But this scheme aligns more with Rodgers’s strengths than people realize. He ran plenty of outside-zone play-action in his early years in Green Bay, and both his ability to play on the move and his tendency to look for chunk plays down the field fit this system well. Quarterbacks all over the NFL, most prominently Matt Ryan and Jared Goff, have shown what this kind of offense can do for QB production. Now, we’ll see what the most talented passer of his generation will do with his turn. </p>
<p id="EoACLs">Part of the reason that Green Bay eschewed play-action concepts under McCarthy is that the offense had very few run concepts that were tied to corresponding play-action designs. This new scheme is <em>built </em>on that idea, which will mean an uptick in the running game. Aaron Jones has been excellent in limited work over the past two seasons, and LaFleur’s track record points to his being featured heavily as both a runner and a receiver. The offensive line—which includes the league’s best pass-protecting left tackle in David Bakhtiari and quality starters at three other positions—remains a strength. Davante Adams is a monster as Green Bay’s no. 1 receiver, and second-year wideout Marquez Valdes-Scantling—who clocked at 4.37 at last year’s combine—gives this offense a vertical dimension on the other side. Even with some growing pains, this will probably be a top-10 unit if Rodgers stays healthy.</p>
<p id="DDQLOs">Despite the addition of an offensive-minded head coach, building up this defense was the Packers’ central focus in free agency and the draft. Green Bay is notoriously frugal in the market, but general manager Brian Gutekunst threw plenty of cash around in March. The Packers brought in former Ravens pass rusher Za’Darius Smith on a four-year, $66 million deal and paired that contract with a four-year, $52 million deal for former Redskins edge rusher Preston Smith. Those two will join defensive tackle Kenny Clark to form a potentially formidable pass rush, which is an area where Green Bay struggled a year ago. Anything the Packers can get from ultra-athletic first-round pick Rashan Gary would be a welcome bonus. </p>
<p id="V3HfMR">Along with their spending spree up front, the Packers also signed former Bears safety Adrian Amos to a four-year, $36 million deal to help stabilize the back end of the secondary. Amos and first-round pick Darnell Savage give the Packers a new pair of safeties to open the season. Cornerback Jaire Alexander also seems ready to break into the upper echelon of defensive backs. The franchise smartly brought back coordinator Mike Pettine to oversee this unit for a second straight year, and under his tutelage this could be the best Packers defense in years. </p>
<p id="rObwtT"><strong>Worst-case scenario: </strong>Transitioning to a new scheme can be rocky, no matter how talented the quarterback is. Even if McCarthy’s plan limited the Packers and their QB at times, it was still a system that Rodgers had spent a decade and a half mastering. There could be some frustrating fits and starts early in the season, which I’m sure the folks in Wisconsin will handle with a level head. We already saw how chill everyone was this offseason at just the slightest hint of disharmony. </p>
<p id="GzUTA3">Even if Rodgers figures out the scheme quickly, there isn’t much depth in Green Bay’s pass-catching group. Valdes-Scantling and Geronimo Allison have a combined 93 career catches, and neither is a particularly imposing no. 2 receiver. The Packers’ best solution would probably be to use more 12 personnel (two receivers, one back, two tight ends), but with rookie tight end Jace Sternberger landing on injured reserve last week, that would mean a heavy dose of Jimmy Graham and Marcedes Lewis, which isn’t encouraging. Depth concerns also exist up front. Rookie second-round pick Elgton Jenkins provides insurance on the interior, but if Bryan Bulaga—who’s missed 13 games over the past two seasons—goes down again, there isn’t an easy solution at tackle. Free-agent signee Billy Turner could potentially kick outside while Jenkins moves into the starting lineup, but games of offensive-line musical chairs rarely work out well. </p>
<p id="gRJtcR">Injuries have already started to affect the defense, and the season hasn’t even started. Linebacker Blake Martinez’s back issue motivated the Packers to trade for B.J. Goodson as insurance, but even when healthy, Green Bay’s linebacker corps is the weakness of this unit. The front four is projected to be a strength, but for that group to fully come together, Gary will have to give Green Bay some production off the edge. Za’Darius Smith is best as an interior pass rusher in nickel situations, which would require another body on the outside. And since Gary’s athleticism never matched his production at Michigan, there’s a chance he’ll take some time to get up to speed.</p>
<p id="8MqYdW"><strong>Stat of note:</strong> 5.89. That’s the average number of offensive players the Packers had in the box last season, which was the lowest in the league, according to the Football Outsiders Almanac. Rushing into those light boxes helped Green Bay finish third in rushing DVOA. LaFleur’s reliance on heavier personnel packages should change that dynamic significantly. </p>
<p id="dnpjFa"><strong>Breakout player: </strong>Alexander. The second-year corner has all the makings of a star. He challenged 36.7 percent of targets thrown his way as a rookie, the <a href="https://twitter.com/PFF/status/1088870876836257792?s=20">highest rate</a> in the league, as measured by PFF. </p>
<h3 id="jPON0E">7. Pittsburgh Steelers </h3>
<p id="o7qJ25"><strong>2018 record: </strong>9-6-1 <br><strong>2018 DVOA: </strong>Sixth on offense; 13th on defense </p>
<p id="BPTpN9"><strong>Best-case scenario: </strong>Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell may be gone, but the Steelers should keep chugging along anyway. We’ve already seen what Pittsburgh can do without Bell, and it’s pretty damn impressive. The Steelers finished fifth in yards per drive last season with James Conner at running back, and the former Pitt product should have another monster year behind one of the league’s top offensive lines. JuJu Smith-Schuster looks more than ready to assume the no. 1 receiver role. He’s already capable of roasting corners both in the slot and outside, and the guy is still only 22 years old. The rest of the Steelers’ WR depth chart is more unsettled, but if any franchise can conjure a no. 2 receiver out of thin air, it’s this one. Whether it’s free-agent signee Donte Moncrief or homegrown picks James Washington and Diontae Johnson, there’s enough talent on the depth chart. </p>
<p id="WN9LUa">It didn’t much matter who Ben Roethlisberger was throwing to last year, though. He had the most prolific season of his career while leading the NFL in passing yards. The 37-year-old future Hall of Famer has more autonomy than ever now that former quarterbacks coach Randy Fichtner has been elevated to offensive coordinator. Pittsburgh lined up in shotgun on 79 percent of its snaps last season (tied for the second-highest rate in the league) and only the Packers threw at a higher rate. That approach has Roethlisberger’s imprint all over it, and with the results it produced last season, who’s complaining?</p>
<p id="0lCZbG">The Steelers’ marquee acquisition this offseason was rookie linebacker Devin Bush. After losing Ryan Shazier, this unit has been held back by a lack of speed in the middle. Bush gives Pittsburgh everything it needs at the position. He’s excellent in coverage and a terrific blitzer. The potential he brings to this defense makes him the most important rookie defender in the NFL. Bush rounds out a front seven that led the league in sacks last season and returns all of its key components. T.J. Watt has developed into a star pass rusher, and the duo of Cameron Heyward and Stephon Tuitt is an absolute nightmare for opposing offensive lines. The lone remaining question is the secondary, which has plagued the Steelers for years. By adding free agent Steven Nelson, Pittsburgh has hopefully solidified a cornerback trio that already included Joe Haden and underrated slot corner Mike Hilton. If 2018 first-round pick Terrell Edmunds can find his footing in year two, this could be a truly terrifying defense. </p>
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<img alt="Tampa Bay Buccaneers v Pittsburgh Steelers" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Kj4gce0T3L8PF_V-wCMOYSZ4XYo=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19169988/1168492719.jpg.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Justin Berl/Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>Devin Bush</figcaption>
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<p id="4CEfpu"><strong>Worst-case scenario: </strong>There’s no way to know what this offense will look like without Brown. He’s the type of receiver who forces defenses to build entire game plans around him and shift both bodies and attention his way. With Smith-Schuster as the only proven receiver remaining, defenses could devote most of their resources to him and dare the Steelers’ other receivers to beat them. The offensive line is also shakier than it’s been in recent years. Offensive line coach Mike Munchak is now in Denver, and former undrafted free agent Matt Feiler steps in at right tackle for Marcus Gilbert, who was traded to Arizona in the offseason. The unit still projects as an area of strength for this team, but it’s not quite the certainty that many are used to.</p>
<p id="oiNQy6">There’s reason for optimism with the secondary, but there are no guarantee that Edmunds will get any better in his second season. The Steelers have bet big on athletically gifted projects in recent drafts and hoped that they could figure out the pro game with proper coaching, but Bud Dupree is a testament to how that plan can go awry. As long as the front four stays healthy, Pittsburgh will have no trouble getting after the QB, but the secondary may continue to be the group that holds this team back. </p>
<p id="G9opSP"><strong>Stat of note: </strong>2.38 seconds. That was Roethlisberger’s average time to throw last season, which was lowest in the league. That didn’t hamper his big-play ability, though, as 12.9 percent of his passes traveled 20-plus yards (which ranked ninth).. Finding the balance between getting rid of the ball quickly and pushing it downfield isn’t easy, but Roethlisberger has managed to figure it out. </p>
<p id="r0kBA7"><strong>Breakout player: </strong>Bush. This is my favorite player-fit combination of the 2019 draft. Bush is a perfect modern linebacker, with extra abilities as a blitzer tossed into the mix. He’s a superstar in the making. </p>
<h3 id="udcFoI">6. Cleveland Browns</h3>
<p id="2zjxj8"><strong>2018 record: </strong>7-8-1<br><strong>2018 DVOA: </strong>17th on offense; 12th on defense </p>
<p id="bqTFOc"><strong>Best-case scenario: </strong>All aboard the Cleveland hype train. I’m more than willing to admit that I’ve gotten caught up in the excitement surrounding the Browns this offseason—but let’s just lean into it. Freddie Kitchens was promoted to head coach in large part because of how he developed Baker Mayfield during the second half of last season. The increased emphasis on downfield throws after Kitchens took over the offensive coordinator role helped unlock Cleveland’s rookie quarterback, and that connection should only continue in 2019. If Mayfield can join the upper tier of NFL quarterbacks in his second year, the potential for this offense is limitless. </p>
<p id="mL20Dj">Mayfield led the NFL in passing DVOA from Week 10 through the end of last season while throwing to Jarvis Landry and Rashard Higgins. Now, he’ll be throwing to Landry, Higgins, and Odell freaking Beckham. I’m not sure people properly appreciate how dynamic the Mayfield-Beckham pairing could be this season. When he’s healthy, Beckham is one of the most dominant <em>players </em>in the NFL, and he achieved that status while playing alongside Eli Manning’s skeleton. Outside of that connection, there are intriguing pieces all over this offense. Higgins has excellent chemistry with Mayfield and a nuanced route-running ability. He has the chance to develop into a really nice third option. Former first-round tight end David Njoku adds a vertical threat up the seam. And running back Nick Chubb is a constant big-play threat. The offensive line is a concern, but Mayfield’s game could mitigate pass-protection issues. He has special pocket awareness for a young player, getting the ball out quickly in some cases and subtly navigating traffic in others. Mayfield will be a full-blown superstar by the end of the season. Mark it down.</p>
<p id="VjYprK">The defense has a budding superstar of its own with defensive end Myles Garrett. The third-year pass rusher is due for a monster year in coordinator Steve Wilks’s scheme, and the rest of the Browns’ front—Olivier Vernon, Sheldon Richardson, and Larry Ogunjobi—will fill out this four-man wrecking crew. This group can swing entire games on its own. The Browns should also blitz less often in 2019 now that former coordinator Gregg Williams is with the Jets. Instead, they’ll lean on their excellent front and keep sound coverage behind them. Pairing a fearsome pass rush with a group of opportunistic corners is a recipe for plenty of turnovers, and Cleveland will have just that when second-round pick Greedy Williams cracks a secondary that already includes Denzel Ward.</p>
<p id="gc9ouE"><strong>Worst-case scenario: </strong>Kitchens was fantastic as an offensive play-caller last season, but we’ve still never seen him as a head coach. It’s a different level of responsibility, especially with a locker room that has several outsize personalities and outspoken stars. His ability to handle the new job remains the great unknown about Cleveland’s season. </p>
<p id="ZgZnrl">The Browns have a stacked group of skill-position players on offense, but even with Baker alleviating some of the pressure up front, the line is a major concern. Greg Robinson will start at left tackle, which Rams fans will tell you is a terrifying thought. The former no. 2 overall pick had a decent second half of 2018, but his track record suggests shaky times ahead. To secure Vernon from the Giants this offseason, the Browns had to trade starting right guard Kevin Zeitler. Journeyman Eric Kush beat out 2018 second-round pick Austin Corbett to replace him, which is troubling. If any area of this roster can torpedo Cleveland’s playoff chances in 2019, it’ll be this group.</p>
<p id="QBP3HJ"><strong>Stat of note: </strong>28. That’s the percentage of Cleveland’s throws that traveled at least 17 yards in the air last year, which led the NFL, according to the Football Outsiders Almanac. Mayfield’s willingness to push the envelope is one of his defining traits as a quarterback, and it only heightens the ceiling for this passing game.</p>
<p id="jbLRqW"><strong>Breakout player: </strong>Chubb. Putting him in this spot feels unfair, considering he rushed for 996 yards as a rookie. But I think we’ll talk about him as arguably the best running back in the NFL by season’s end. Chubb led the NFL in both Elusive Rating and yards after contact per rush (4.47) in 2018, according to Pro Football Focus. Broken tackles is a sticky stat that tends to stay consistent over time, and when you combine that with Chubb’s absurd physical gifts, the result is a home run threat every time the ball gets in his hands. </p>
<h3 id="l43FTq">5. New Orleans Saints </h3>
<p id="PVB6OZ"><strong>2018 record: </strong>13-3<br><strong>2018 DVOA: </strong>Fourth on offense; 11th on defense </p>
<p id="foXRWV"><strong>Best-case scenario: </strong>The Saints have made it to the doorstep of the Super Bowl in each of the past two seasons, and this roster might be even better in 2019. Superstars like Drew Brees, Michael Thomas, and Alvin Kamara still headline the offense. Free-agent signee Jared Cook had a standout year for the Raiders last season and could emerge as the Saints’ third option. The offensive line is still in the league’s top tier, with the best tackle duo in the NFL in Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk, and rookie center Erik McCoy stepping in to replace the retired Max Unger. As long as Brees and head coach Sean Payton are around, this will be one of the league’s most efficient units.</p>
<p id="XK1Vfz">The defense finally started to keep pace during the past two seasons, and this will arguably be the best group that New Orleans has fielded since Payton and Brees arrived in 2006. With 2018 first-round pick Marcus Davenport stepping into a starting role and defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins returning from his torn Achilles, the Saints will finally have multiple complements to All-Pro pass rusher Cameron Jordan. Marshon Lattimore is a shutdown cornerback, and the safety duo of Marcus Williams and Vonn Bell is as reliable it comes.</p>
<p id="MkKi21">What stands out most about this team, though, is the depth. Cornerback Patrick Robinson returns from a broken ankle to give the Saints even more security in the secondary. A.J. Klein and Alex Anzalone could start for nearly any team, but will be part of a linebacker logjam next to Demario Davis. With Malcolm Brown, Mario Edwards Jr., and David Onyemata joining Rankins on the interior, the Saints go four deep at defensive tackle. There are just very few doomsday scenarios for this season. </p>
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<img alt="Minnesota Vikings v New Orleans Saints" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/EDJsEYjsfTbcWIadNLh1sbKav2A=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19169995/1167436065.jpg.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>Alvin Kamara</figcaption>
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<p id="jF3oot"><strong>Worst-case scenario: </strong>The only one I can dream up involves a 40-year-old quarterback falling off an unfortunately placed cliff. For the majority of last season, Brees was playing the best football of his career. Through 11 games, he averaged 8.8 yards per attempt, completed an unfathomable 77 percent of his passes, and looked like a shoo-in for his first MVP award. Then the final month of the season happened. Brees was below average over his final six games, averaging just 6.7 yards per attempt with seven touchdowns and five interceptions. As ESPN’s Bill Barnwell <a href="https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/27343569/barnwell-inevitable-drew-brees-decline-already-begun">wrote</a> last month, there were plenty of factors that contributed to that decline. Brees has always performed worse on the road than he has in the Superdome, and the Saints played two games outdoors during his rough patch. Armstead also missed multiple games, which led to fewer clean pockets. Brees wasn’t nearly as bad as the numbers suggest, and it’s reasonable to expect just as many spectacular moments from him this season as disappointing ones. But when it comes to quarterbacks at this age, there’s just no telling when the decline—or end—will come. Teddy Bridgewater is a top-tier backup quarterback—another testament to this team’s depth—but the downgrade from Brees to Bridgewater is significant enough to knock New Orleans from the NFC elite.</p>
<p id="CkuZ9s"><strong>Stat of note: </strong>58.5. That’s Thomas’s contested catch percentage over the past three seasons, which is the second highest in the NFL during that span, according to Pro Football Focus. It shouldn’t be possible for a receiver to excel at finding voids in zone coverage <em>and </em>physically manhandle corners the way that Thomas does. He’s more than deserving of the market-setting five-year, $96.3 million contract he received this offseason. </p>
<p id="DStSPF"><strong>Breakout player: </strong>Davenport. New Orleans has dealt away so many picks in recent years that there isn’t much homegrown talent on this roster. Now in a full-time role, he will get plenty of opportunities as a pass rusher with Jordan demanding so much attention. </p>
<h3 id="LRlVwY">4. Los Angeles Rams</h3>
<p id="ef3heY"><strong>2018 record: </strong>13-3<br><strong>2018 DVOA finish: </strong>Second on offense; 17th on defense </p>
<p id="JiDrng"><strong>Best-case scenario: </strong>Sean McVay deserves the benefit of the doubt. The Rams’ stellar head coach orchestrated one of the most impressive turnarounds in NFL history in 2017, taking a team that had finished 4-12 the previous season to the playoffs. Then, in his second year, he led the Rams to the Super Bowl—where he was promptly manhandled by Bill Belichick and the Patriots. A poor offensive showing against the best defensive coach the sport has ever seen can be forgiven, but Jared Goff and the Rams’ passing game also had rough outings against the Bears, Lions, and Eagles in the second half of the season. This offense relies on misdirection and uncertainty to make up for a lack of personnel variety, but by the end of the year, it seemed like defenses had largely figured that system out. </p>
<p id="fVO1N5">For the Rams to reach their ceiling in 2019 and contend for another Super Bowl, they can’t rely on the same bag of tricks. And they won’t. When McVay took over two years ago, the plan wasn’t to use 11 personnel at a historic rate. That approach came about only after the coach studied the team’s roster and understood that using three-receiver sets was the best way to get Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, and a third receiver (currently Brandin Cooks, but Sammy Watkins at the time) onto the field. He’s a brilliant, adaptable coach, and his next challenge will be continuing the Rams’ evolution. The bones of L.A.’s system will likely remain the same: one of—if not <em>the—</em>highest play-action rates in the NFL, efficient early-down passes, and plenty of pre-snap motion to get Goff extra information before the snap. But this season I’d expect significantly more two-tight-end sets than the Rams have used in the past, both as a way to mess with preconceptions and try to coax more base personnel defenses onto the field. McVay will also still use plenty of three-receiver sets because with this set of wideouts at his disposal, it’d be silly not to. The Rams missed Kupp dearly late in the season; he was Goff’s security blanket and the team’s best option in the quick passing game. Now that he’s back in the fold, there’s no reason to think Goff can’t replicate the success he’s had for most of the past two seasons.</p>
<p id="BpZRJg">It’s also worth mentioning that the Rams have the best football player on earth in the middle of their defense. There are no words to describe Aaron Donald’s dominance. He is unblockable—an all-time talent just hitting his prime while playing in a defensive scheme that turns him loose. The pass rush also gets a boost with Dante Fowler Jr. returning, and there’s a chance (albeit slim) that a switch back to a full-time linebacker role can rejuvenate Clay Matthews. Aqib Talib, John Johnson, nickel corner Nickell Robey-Coleman, and free-agent signee Eric Weddle also give coordinator Wade Phillips a well-rounded secondary. We’ve already seen the best-case scenario for this roster, and it ends with them being the best team in the NFC. </p>
<p id="S4PQMb"><strong>Worst-case scenario: </strong>McVay’s performance in the Super Bowl is easier to overlook than Goff’s. The Patriots dared the Rams to turn to their dropback passing game, and whenever Goff didn’t use a play fake, he struggled to quickly diagnose the defense. The Rams <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nfl-preview/2019/9/3/20848641/jared-goff-sean-mcvay-rams-nfl-contract-extension">handed their QB a four-year deal</a> with $110 million guaranteed earlier this week based on his success with McVay the past two seasons, but it’s possible we’ve already seen the pinnacle of his career. Goff is a good fit within the machine. The question is whether that machine can keep rolling in Year 3.</p>
<p id="mKs6Tb">Then there are the concerns about Todd Gurley’s long-term health. The Rams have built an excellent running game no matter who’s carrying the ball, but without Gurley to throw to in the Super Bowl, they lost a crucial element of their attack. Third-round pick Darrell Henderson should help in that area, but this unit is still better with Gurley’s multifaceted skill set keeping defenses off balance. Two first-year starters will step in on the offensive line this season, with Brian Allen replacing John Sullivan at center and Joe Noteboom taking over the left guard spot from Rodger Saffold. Sullivan was exposed in pass protection late last season, but both he and Saffold brought a wealth of experience this group now lacks. Defensively, Marcus Peters is still prone to prolonged slumps at cornerback, and the pass rush outside of Donald is a bit uncertain. The Rams are still one of the most complete rosters in the league, but it’s fair to wonder whether last season was their best shot. </p>
<p id="o2vRu4"><strong>Stat of note: </strong>2.6. That was the difference in Goff’s yards per attempt with play-action last season (10.0) compared to without (7.4). A huge part of his success within this system has come via play-action, and if more teams can force the Rams to use their dropback game, it could be a long year. </p>
<p id="7brNwX"><strong>Breakout player: </strong>Henderson. Even if Gurley is healthy, Henderson should still have a role within the NFL’s most running-back-friendly offense. He averaged 8.9 yards per carry in his final season at Memphis with 22 touchdowns, and I expect plenty of big plays from him this fall.</p>
<h3 id="Vy5pfi">3. New England Patriots</h3>
<p id="fk44L3"><strong>2018 record: </strong>11-5<br><strong>2018 DVOA: </strong>Fifth on offense; 16th on defense </p>
<p id="AM0oAs"><strong>Best-case scenario: </strong>The formula here is simple and familiar. New England is more than capable of coasting through the AFC East yet again, and when Bill Belichick gets to the playoffs, no one is better at contriving a trio of one-game plans that ends in a championship. Barring catastrophe, this team will hang around late into January once again. Even by New England’s lofty standards, this roster is stacked, especially on the offensive line where position coach Dante Scarnecchia has once again worked his sorcery. The Patriots lost left tackle Trent Brown in free agency and will start the season without center David Andrews as he gets treatment for blood clots—and they’ll <em>still </em>have the best pass-blocking line in football. Brown will be replaced by 2018 first-round pick Isaiah Wynn, who missed his rookie season with a torn Achilles. The Patriots watched their left tackle leave for the largest offensive lineman contract in NFL history, and they’ll replace him with a first-round pick. That’s how this team operates. </p>
<p id="qNpuzi">New England made a similar swap at defensive end, where Michael Bennett will assume Trey Flowers’s role for half the price. Belichick also stumbled into Michigan star Chase Winovich in the third round of the draft, and he should be a pass-rushing presence immediately. Playoff heroes Dont’a Hightower and Kyle Van Noy return at linebacker. Stephon Gilmore is the best cover corner in the NFL, and he’s flanked by a deep, adaptable secondary that can smoothly transform to fit any scenario. The Pats defense always shows up in specific game situations (namely, the red zone) and in the playoffs. But this has a chance to be their best regular-season group in years. </p>
<p id="zxriFA">Did I mention that they also have the greatest quarterback of all time? Tom Brady is 42 years old and starting to show signs of decline, but that’s all relative. He’s still one of the most ruthlessly efficient quarterbacks in football, and he gets a huge lift with the <a href="https://www.theringer.com/2019/8/16/20809528/josh-gordon-reinstated-nfl-new-england-patriots">surprise reinstatement of Josh Gordon</a>. Losing Rob Gronkowski certainly hurts, but the Pats have more than enough skill position talent to make due. Julian Edelman and Gordon will hold down the top two receiver spots, and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels will undoubtedly use bigger personnel packages to slice and dice defenses through the air on early downs. Then there’s the Pats’ shape-shifting backfield. Grind you to dust with Sony Michel? They can do that. Exploit a linebacker in man coverage with James White? They can do that, too. Keep a fullback on the field and motion to an empty formation repeatedly to extend a drive and win the Super Bowl? Yep. That too. It’s year 19 of the Brady-Belichick dynasty, and it’s not stopping quite yet. </p>
<p id="0eksuT"><strong>Worst-case scenario: </strong>Assuming that Brady is human and not a replicant from <em>Blade Runner</em>—which isn’t a given—his aging body could break down at any time. To this point, the decline has been subtle and slow. He isn’t as sharp in stretches. New England’s deep passing game is no longer much of a factor. The fall has yet to come, but when it does, it’ll hit without warning. </p>
<p id="wlMKwP">Anything less than a calamitous string of injuries probably won’t be enough to sabotage this deep, well-rounded defense. But if the Patriots do have a weakness on that side of the ball, it’s that Belichick’s big, pass-rushing linebackers also have to drop back into coverage and match up against pass-catching running backs. But if teams are relying heavily on seven-yard angle routes to match a Tom Brady–led offense, they’ve already lost. </p>
<p id="g6B6Pd">Gronk’s absence does make New England less flexible. His prowess as a blocker and ability to split out wide was a key to the Pats’ unpredictability on offense, and now, McDaniels and Belichick will be forced to use a combination of Matt LaCosse, Ryan Izzo, and Ben Watson (when he returns from his four-game suspension) to mimic that role. Even with those questions, New England’s outlook still comes down to the undeniable: The Patriots will be contenders as long as Brady can put on his pads and Belichick is roaming that sideline. </p>
<p id="8570or"><strong>Stat of note: </strong>69. That’s the percentage of post-incompletion second-and-10 plays where the Patriots threw last season, the fourth-highest rate in the league, according to Warren Sharp’s NFL preview. New England runs the ball more often than most teams, but that’s not their guiding compass. Whereas most teams focus on establishing the run regardless of situation, the Pats throw when they should and run when they should. That’s the difference. </p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Carolina Panthers v New England Patriots" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/jJy_on3g5u0t3OrSiD0pyhE-jsY=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19170000/1169690208.jpg.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>Chase Winovich</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="NdJbTR"><strong>Breakout player: </strong>Winovich. There’s just no reason that Winovich should have been available in the third round after the career he had at Michigan. He’ll be a star sooner rather than later. </p>
<h3 id="TdIDPz">2. Kansas City Chiefs </h3>
<p id="98yCd9"><strong>2018 record: </strong>12-4<br><strong>2018 DVOA: </strong>First on offense; 26th on defense </p>
<p id="uA7Ndj"><strong>Best-case scenario: </strong>Witness the firepower of Andy Reid’s fully armed and operational battle station. Last season, Reid took the most innovative, quarterback-friendly scheme in the NFL and dropped in one of the most gifted passers who’s ever lived. It went about as well as you would have thought. Patrick Mahomes threw 50 touchdown passes en route to being crowned league MVP and emerging as the sport’s next great star. This year should bring more of the same. The Chiefs will return every key member of the offensive group that finished first in DVOA last season. Kansas City has a great tackle duo in Mitchell Schwartz and Eric Fisher, the NFL’s top receiving tight end in Travis Kelce, the league’s most valuable vertical option in Tyreek Hill, and a system that gets receiving production from its running backs, no matter who’s catching the ball. This should be a top-three offense, even if Mahomes does take a small step back in his second season as a starter. And I don’t think he will. </p>
<p id="zUfEpS">Kansas City’s problem last year was that this defense seemed to turn every opposing quarterback into Mahomes Lite. The Chiefs couldn’t stop a soul under former coordinator Bob Sutton, and their showing in last season’s AFC Championship game—where the Patriots put up 37 points in an overtime win—led to Sutton’s firing. Former Giants defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will assume that role, and he’ll have more talent to work with than his predecessor. Defensive tackle Chris Jones is the best interior pass rusher in the NFL not named Aaron Donald. The Chiefs sent a first-round pick to Seattle to acquire defensive end Frank Clark, who’s a definite upgrade over Dee Ford. Safety Tyrann Mathieu joins the secondary on a three-year, $42 million deal, and it’s likely that second-round pick Juan Thornhill will eventually assume the other starting safety spot. General manager Brett Veach also picked up speedy linebacker Darron Lee from the Jets for next to nothing. That may not seem like enough turnover to reshape one of the worst units in the NFL, but Spagnuolo doesn’t need to field a top-10 group. If Kansas City can finish above average, that should be enough to make this the best team in the AFC. </p>
<p id="Qu5Su9"><strong>Worst-case scenario: </strong>Still, even getting to league average will be a challenge with the holes that still remain on this defense. Free agent cornerback Bashaud Breeland is on his third team in three seasons. Linebacker Anthony Hitchens has been a huge misfire. It’s not hard to imagine a scenario where this group continues to hemorrhage points, even with Clark and Mathieu in the fold. </p>
<p id="69gm39">Injuries are the only thing that could seriously derail this offense, but if there is one deficiency, it’s the interior of the offensive line. The Patriots barraged Kansas City’s guards and center with twists and stunts in the playoffs, and the Chiefs had no answer. With center Mitch Morse leaving for Buffalo in free agency, you could easily argue that the interior of the line is <em>worse </em>than it was last season. All it takes a single crack for an entire pass-protection unit to start falling apart, and that may be the case with Kansas City. </p>
<p id="1SE7Qi"><strong>Stat of note: </strong>11.2. That’s how many yards per play the Chiefs averaged on running back screens last season, the highest mark in the league by <em>a lot</em>, according to the Football Outsiders Almanac. Reid is a football genius, but the work he does in building his screen game is his masterwork. </p>
<p id="sfLu5p"><strong>Breakout player: </strong>Mecole Hardman. The rookie receiver may not see enough volume to have much of a fantasy impact in his first year, but with 4.33 speed, he’s just another big-play threat waiting to happen. </p>
<h3 id="HzzxC2">1. Philadelphia Eagles</h3>
<p id="cOl7ev"><strong>2018 record: </strong>9-7 <br><strong>2018 DVOA: </strong>16th on offense; 15th on defense </p>
<p id="68IH4L"><strong>Best-case scenario: </strong>The Eagles won the Super Bowl two seasons ago thanks to the NFL’s best roster. And guess what? This roster is better. As teams around the league struggle to find functional starters, Philly goes two deep at nearly every position on the depth chart. General manager Howie Roseman drafted offensive tackle Andre Dillard in the first round this April, which gives the Eagles a contingency plan should left tackle Jason Peters, 37, miss time. Second-round pick Miles Sanders should emerge as the team’s best running back, even through a crowded backfield that includes Jordan Howard, Corey Clement, and Darren Sproles. Rookie receiver JJ Arcega-Whiteside is an Alshon Jeffery clone—and Alshon Jefffery is still on the roster. Roseman also signed Malik Jackson and DeSean Jackson to relatively cheap deals this offseason to further elevate two crucial position groups. The amount of talent on this roster is absolutely ridiculous. </p>
<p id="pAbnZl">Lackluster coaching staffs squander great rosters all the time, but we’ve already seen what head coach Doug Pederson and defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz are capable of. Along with the influx of new pieces Philly got this spring, the team will also benefit from a boost in health in 2019. The Eagles <a href="https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2019/2018-adjusted-games-lost-part-i">ranked</a> 31st in the NFL in adjusted games lost last season, and no position group was hit harder than the secondary. Philly’s defensive backfield was depleted by season’s end, but this year, it should be an area of strength. </p>
<p id="Dcesd8">The offense is similarly stacked across the board. Philly’s <a href="https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/27493236/philadelphia-eagles-offensive-linemen-want-bust-o-line-body-stigma-body-issue-2019">photogenic</a> offensive line is the best unit in the league, and the skill-position group may match that level this year. The combination of Jeffery and Jackson with a tight end duo of Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert will make this group a nightmare to guard. No coach in the NFL is better than Pederson at designing pass plays out of two tight end sets, and that will likely be the Eagles’ primary approach. </p>
<p id="DFghtn">Injuries are always a concern with Carson Wentz, but the last time he entered a season healthy, he was the presumptive MVP for most of the year. The same should be true in 2019, and the fourth-year QB could put together a career year with the best supporting cast he’s ever had. </p>
<div> <figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Baltimore Ravens v Philadelphia Eagles" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/M9oGZJFJwa27yqDqFtypRsq9KHI=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19170006/1169692549.jpg.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>Carson Wentz</figcaption>
</figure>
</div>
<p id="yEIHhK"><strong>Worst-case scenario: </strong>Any case against the Eagles begins with Wentz getting hurt, a situation which goes from unfortunate to devastating now that Nick Foles isn’t around to pick up the pieces. Outside of that, though, there just aren’t many areas to pick this team apart. The edge rusher depth isn’t what it used to be, but Derek Barnett and Brandon Graham are still an excellent duo. And with all-world defensive tackle Fletcher Cox and Malik Jackson inside, pass rush won’t be an issue. The Eagles’ glut of talent gives them the highest floor of any team, as long as their guy is under center. </p>
<p id="0hlqRM"><strong>Stat of note: </strong>43 percent. That’s how often the Eagles used two tight ends or six offensive linemen last season, the highest rate in the league, according to the Football Outsiders Almanac. They also ranked first in single-back sets. This team knows exactly what it wants to be formationally, and that identity typically leads to plenty of mismatches. </p>
<p class="c-end-para" id="LcnU4V"><strong>Breakout player: </strong>Sanders. The Penn State product is already the most talented running back on the Eagles’ roster. He should give this unit a jolt both as a runner and in the passing game. Not that they needed one. </p>
<p id="zm7xJs"></p>
https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2019/9/5/20849931/preseason-power-rankings-part-4-patriots-chiefs-rams-saintsRobert Mays2019-09-04T09:00:29-04:002019-09-04T09:00:29-04:00NFL Preseason Power Rankings, Part 3: The Seahawks’ Stock Is Up, and the Texans’ … We’ll See
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<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Hi4X_bS95X2GNIcEuZZ8YWRTgHU=/386x0:2786x1800/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/65169233/mays_2019_power_rankings_3_getty_ringer2.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Getty Images/Ringer illustration</figcaption>
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<p>Can a new coordinator unlock the Cowboys offense? How will Chicago handle the pressure at the top of the NFC North? And can the Chargers defense hold things together without Derwin James?</p> <p class="p--has-dropcap" id="i9SzM9">One more day. That’s all that stands between us and the start of the NFL regular season. I spent the past two days breaking down the initial two tiers of my preseason power rankings, but this is when things really get interesting. Part 3 is full of promising yet flawed rosters that have a chance to win it all with the right breaks. So with that, let’s get to our Super Bowl hopefuls. </p>
<h3 id="u5kYzI">16. Atlanta Falcons</h3>
<p id="ZL6uHY"><strong>2018 record: </strong>7-9<br><strong>2018 DVOA: </strong>Eighth on offense; 31st on defense </p>
<p id="kzuWKI"><strong>Best-case scenario: </strong>After a disappointing finish last season, the Falcons found several scapegoats, including former offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian. But the thing is—Atlanta’s offense was really good! Matt Ryan’s 69.4 completion percentage and 8.1 yards per attempt were both the second-highest figures of his career, trailing only his MVP campaign in 2016. The Falcons finished seventh in passing DVOA. Julio Jones led the league in yards per route run for the fourth straight season, according to Pro Football Focus, and first-round pick Calvin Ridley scored a ridiculous 10 touchdowns as teams focused on Jones in the red zone. </p>
<div class="c-float-left"><aside id="nv6Toj"><div data-anthem-component="readmore" data-anthem-component-data='{"stories":[{"title":"NFL Preseason Power Rankings, Part 1: Fish Tanking, Frostbite, and a New York State of Dread","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nfl-preview/2019/9/2/20841382/preseason-power-rankings-part-1-giants-raiders-jets-cardinals"},{"title":"NFL Preseason Power Rankings, Part 2: Striking Gold or Out of Luck? ","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nfl-preview/2019/9/3/20844924/preseason-power-rankings-part-2-broncos-49ers-ravens"},{"title":"NFL Preseason Power Rankings, Part 4: Philly Special Is Back and Ready for Round 2","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2019/9/5/20849931/preseason-power-rankings-part-4-patriots-chiefs-rams-saints"}]}'></div></aside></div>
<p id="4fqPMr">But that wasn’t enough to save Sarkisian’s job. The Falcons hired former Buccaneers head coach Dirk Koetter as their offensive coordinator this offseason, his second stint in the role he also held from 2012 to 2014. Koetter is familiar with Ryan and Jones, and if he sticks to a similar strategy to the ones used in 2016 and 2018, including a heavy dose of play-action, the offense should be on decent footing. </p>
<p id="dr4C4x">General manager Thomas Dimitroff also spent this offseason using most of Atlanta’s available resources to fix the Falcons’ most glaring personnel weakness on that side of the ball: the offensive line. Atlanta signed guards James Carpenter and Jamon Brown in free agency, drafted Boston College guard Chris Lindstrom with the 14th overall pick, and then traded back into the first round to take Washington tackle Kaleb McGary 31st overall. McGary missed most of the preseason after undergoing a heart procedure in late July, but he looked excellent in his debut last week. If he can secure the starting right tackle spot and both he and Lindstrom hit, this group could be a strength with a surprising amount of depth. </p>
<p id="Y0qAgU">The story on defense is all about health. The Falcons ranked 25th in adjusted games lost on defense last season, and that’s before you take into account <em>who </em>they lost. Linebacker Deion Jones, the team’s best defender, broke his foot in the season opener and missed 10 games. Strong safety and 2016 first-round pick Keanu Neal also went down in the first game of the year with a torn ACL. The lonely “2” figure in the tackles column of his 2018 stat line is a sad sight. Free safety Ricardo Allen also missed 13 games. Atlanta head coach Dan Quinn is taking over as the team’s defensive play caller this season after coordinator Marquand Manuel was fired in December, but with all the Falcons’ best players back in the mix, anyone with a heart beat could be calling the defense this year and things would improve. </p>
<p id="HizrQX"><strong>Worst-case scenario: </strong>The defense may be better, but this group still hasn’t ever been <em>really </em>good during Quinn’s tenure—and Dimitroff hasn’t retooled it enough to see significant results in 2019. Even with defensive tackle Grady Jarrett—fresh off a four-year, $68 million extension this offseason—in the fold, the Falcons have one of the weakest pass rushes in the NFL. Tak McKinley is only 23 years old and could take a leap in his third season, but there’s no reason to expect much from Vic Beasley, who carries a $12.8 million cap hit on his fifth-year option. Cornerback is also an unsettled position, where former safety Damontae Kazee—who filled in for the injured Neal last year—steps into the slot. The trio of Kazee, Isaiah Oliver, and Desmond Trufant could eventually become a strength, but we still haven’t seen enough of Oliver and Kazee to pencil that in quite yet. Atlanta’s choice to heavily invest in the offensive line this spring meant the holes on defense went largely unaddressed, and that figures to be a problem even if Quinn excels as a play-caller. </p>
<p id="iMAIXP"><strong>Stat of note: </strong>Third. That’s where Atlanta’s minus-10.8 percent defensive DVOA in the six games with Deion Jones would have ranked last season, according to the Football Outsiders Almanac. It’s an admittedly small sample, but the Falcons’ DVOA in the 10 games Jones missed was a horrendous 42.1 percent. He’s one of the most important players in the NFL, and Atlanta admitted as much this offseason by signing him to a four-year, $57 million contract. </p>
<p id="E49bTi"><strong>Breakout player: </strong>John Cominsky. The fourth-round, small-school product from Charleston may seem like a deep cut, but even after re-signing Adrian Clayborn, Atlanta needs pass rushers. The 286-pound defensive end wrecked the combine with 3-cone drill and 40-yard dash times in the 89th and 90th percentile, respectively. He’s the type of twitchy athlete the Falcons love, and he should have some opportunities to get after the quarterback. </p>
<h3 id="Ogom6U">15. Seattle Seahawks</h3>
<p id="QSaS30"><strong>2018 record: </strong>10-6<br><strong>2018 DVOA: </strong>ninth on offense; 14th on defense </p>
<p id="Xeydd3"><strong>Best-case scenario: </strong>I hope John Schneider rolled into work Monday wearing that <a href="https://twitter.com/minakimes/status/1167826635388702720?s=20">championship belt</a>. He deserves it. The Seahawks’ general manager <em>fleeced </em>the Texans and their nonexistent GM this weekend by dealing a third-round pick and two pairs of socks for Jadeveon Clowney. Oh, and Schneider also convinced the Texans to pay half of Clowney’s salary for 2019. So, to recap the Seahawks’ offseason: After franchise-tagging one pass rusher and flipping him for a first-round pick, they turned around and dealt a third-rounder for another team’s franchise-tagged pass rusher. And Seattle will pay Clowney less than half of what they would have paid Frank Clark on the tag. Schneider might know what he’s doing. </p>
<p id="HOBko4">No one is mistaking Clowney’s impact for Aaron Donald’s, but he’s still a movable piece that could help unlock the rest of this Seahawks front. Having Clowney in the mix will create more opportunities for Ziggy Ansah. Jarran Reed will see more single blocks when he returns from his six-game suspension for violating the league’s personal conduct policy. All-world linebacker Bobby Wagner is also one of the best blitzers in the NFL and will get chances to do damage rushing the passer. This front six will be a full-blown strength when Reed returns, and it might be stout enough to cover for an inexperienced secondary. </p>
<p id="bFEEb7">Seattle’s offense isn’t nearly as complete, but a truly great quarterback tends to make you forget about that. Russell Wilson is worth every cent of the record-setting four-year, $140 million deal he got this offseason. Offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer (likely doing Pete Carroll’s bidding) limited Wilson’s impact last year with a run-heavy approach—Seattle threw on less than 52 percent of its plays, the lowest rate in the league. But when Schottenheimer <em>did </em>dial up passes, they were the right kind of throws. Wilson threw deep (20-plus yards) on 15.9 percent of his passes, the third-highest rate in the league, and his connection with Tyler Lockett helped him finish with the second-best passer rating on such throws (128.1). Wilson also used play action on 30.8 percent of his drop backs—the fifth-highest rate in the NFL—and he completed 7.3 percent more of his throws when using a play fake, which was good for the sixth best mark among qualified passers. </p>
<p id="j9JaHg">The Seahawks have all the makings of a great passing game; they just need to throw the ball more often. Thanks to a gargantuan offensive line, an excellent back in Chris Carson, and a scheme that spreads teams out to run the ball, Seattle already has one of the more effective rushing attacks in the league. If Schottenheimer is willing to unleash Wilson this year, Seattle could easily be one of the NFL’s most efficient offenses. </p>
<p id="vcl0yN"><strong>Worst-case scenario: </strong>The problem is that committing to the run seems to be hardwired into Carroll’s football DNA. Remember the Seahawks’ maddening strategy in their playoff loss to the Cowboys last season? If Seattle’s coaching staff remains hell-bent on slamming Carson into the line on first and second down, they won’t just be hampering how good this team can be offensively. They’ll be turning Wilson’s contract into an anchor. Paying an elite quarterback $35 million isn’t a problem—unless a team’s scheme doesn’t allow that quarterback to be elite. </p>
<p id="ZIOZVi">There’s also the issue of Wilson’s receivers. Lockett had a breakout season in 2018, and he should only continue his ascension as he moves into Doug Baldwin’s slot role—and Baldwin’s former title as the Seahawks’ no. 1 receiver. But Baldwin’s departure leaves Lockett as the team’s only reliable option, and that’s more glaring now that David Moore and second-round pick D.K. Metcalf are dealing with injuries. </p>
<p id="Rzcoic">This unit can’t afford to falter, because Seattle’s success will be riding on the offense more than in recent years. Swindling the Texans for Clowney was a stroke of genius, but he’s not an upgrade over Clark as a pass rusher. Even with Clowney (and the promise of a healthy Ansah), Seattle’s defense looks a lot like the average unit that finished last season—only without Reed for six games and without slot corner Justin Coleman, who signed a four-year, $36 million deal with Detroit this offseason. Aside from safety Bradley McDougald, there is very little established talent in the Seahawks’ secondary. </p>
<p id="FUBGx4"><strong>Stat of note: </strong>40.<strong> </strong>That’s the percentage of first-half early downs where the Seahawks threw the ball last season, according to Warren Sharp’s 2019 NFL Preview. They were the only team to throw the ball less than 45 percent of the time in those situations. Someone needs to take the keys away from Schottenheimer and give them to Wilson. </p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Oakland Raiders v Seattle Seahawks" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/4T5vKqim8HCcJWWgkzJVIxt62Rw=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19166489/1171026505.jpg.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Alika Jenner/Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>Marquise Blair</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="ESotel"><strong>Breakout player: </strong>Marquise Blair. Seattle doesn’t have a ton of high-end young talent on its roster. First-round pick L.J. Collier is a high-floor prospect but won’t wow anyone with his athleticism. Seattle grabbed Blair, a hard-hitting safety prospect from Utah, in the second round, and even though a nagging back injury has kept him out of the starting lineup for now, the lack of competition on the back end of this defense means he could become their starting box safety later this season. </p>
<h3 id="T0zSy0">14. Houston Texans</h3>
<p id="s13bjL"><strong>2018 record: </strong>11-5<br><strong>2018 DVOA: </strong>21st on offense; seventh on defense</p>
<p id="unH3Nc"><strong>Best-case scenario: </strong>Examining the long-term impact of the Texans’ wild decision to trade two first-rounders and a second-round pick for Laremy Tunsil and Kenny Stills is an exercise for another time and platform. Houston is better in the short term, and it’s filled the biggest hole on the roster. With Tunsil at left tackle and first-round pick Tytus Howard at left guard, the offensive line will be better than it was in 2018, when quarterback Deshaun Watson was sacked a league-high 62 times. Houston ranked 13th in passing DVOA last season with Watson running for his life. If the pass protection can go from historically terrible to even just bad, the Texans could easily be a top-10 passing unit. </p>
<div id="kVXakz"><iframe src="https://open.spotify.com/embed-podcast/episode/1UGl882m7y6jLzBBdEPCHN" style="border: 0; width: 100%; height: 232px;" allowfullscreen="" allow="encrypted-media"></iframe></div>
<p id="PhQSFR">Head coach and de facto general manager Bill O’Brien was willing to <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nfl-preview/2019/8/31/20842505/texans-jadeveon-clowney-trade-mess">pay whatever it took</a> to protect Watson, because he understood that the Texans’ hopes are tied to their quarterback. Watson wasn’t the touchdown-throwing machine last year that he was as a rookie, when he threw a TD on an unsustainable 9.3 percent of his passes. But he was just as productive in nearly every other area (his adjusted yards per attempt actually <em>improved</em>, going from 8.4 to 8.5). Houston has surrounded Watson with a group of pass catchers that all have complementary skill sets. DeAndre Hopkins is the <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2019/7/3/20679161/best-wide-receiver-brown-beckham-thomas-julio-hopkins">best receiver in football</a>. Full stop. Will Fuller is an excellent vertical threat to pair with a chains-mover like Hopkins, and Stills gives the Texans an insurance plan if Fuller misses time like he has the past two seasons. Second-year slot man Keke Coutee caught 28 passes and showed a penchant for exploiting the middle of the field in just six games as a rookie. O’Brien also traded for former Browns back Duke Johnson, which should give Watson a pass-catching option out of the backfield and help ease the blow now that Lamar Miller is out for the season with a torn ACL. </p>
<p id="oI8Ynj">Hopkins and Watson are bona fide stars on offense, and J.J. Watt fills that role on defense. Watt was fully <em>back </em>last season after dealing with various injuries over the past two years. According to Pro Football Focus, only Dee Ford (78) had more disrupted dropbacks last year than Watt (74), and only Calais Campbell had more run stops (43 to Watt’s 32). Pass-rushing linebacker Whitney Mercilus struggled with a nagging hamstring issue early in the season, but tallied 27 disrupted dropbacks from Week 9 on. Starting linebackers Benardrick McKinney and Zach Cunningham both fit Houston’s scheme well. And if free-agent acquisitions Bradley Roby and Tashaun Gipson can mimic the production of Kareem Jackson and Tyrann Mathieu, this unit could replicate it’s production from last season, when it finished seventh in DVOA. </p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Los Angeles Rams v Houston Texans" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/J9a5t-Dd7InEJpd2tSRG6_ezgng=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19166497/1171775492.jpg.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>Deshaun Watson</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="VWYM4Z"><strong>Worst-case scenario: </strong>Let’s talk about Tunsil for a moment. The 25-year-old tackle is an ascending player, and—after he signs a massive extension—should give Houston a steady presence on the left side for a large chunk of Watson’s career. But Tunsil isn’t David Bakhtiari. He isn’t prime Tyron Smith. Plus, it takes more than a good left tackle to solve a team’s pass-protection issues. Both guards remain question marks, with the rookie Howard on the left side and backup-quality Zach Fulton on the right. Seantrel Henderson still leaves plenty to be desired at right tackle. Ideally, second-round pick Max Scharping would have cracked this lineup, but that hasn’t happened yet. Even with Tunsil, this is one of the five weakest offensive lines in the league, and that’s before considering Watson’s role in Houston’s protection issues. Watson spent an average of 3.12 seconds in the pocket last season, the second-highest rate in the league, according to Pro Football Focus. Only 38.7 percent of his throws came in less than 2.5 seconds, the third-lowest rate, and his average sack time of 3.56 seconds was the sixth longest in the NFL. The Texans’ weak line may have contributed to the beating their quarterback took last season, but Watson didn’t do himself any favors. </p>
<p id="xqyC5r">Houston’s unsettled line also contributed to a plodding ground game that finished 26th in rushing DVOA. That just shouldn’t be possible with a quarterback who’s also a threat to run. Part of the blame lies on O’Brien for not using enough read plays (likely in an effort to keep Watson from taking <em>more </em>hits), but the issues were certainly larger than that. This season, the Texans will lean on a combination of Johnson and Carlos Hyde in place of the injured Miller, and unless they make some significant schematic tweaks, they’ll struggle on the ground again. </p>
<p id="PnbWU2">If the principle pieces of the offense stay healthy, the Texans’ passing game should still be above average. The same can’t be said about their pass defense. Trading Jadeveon Clowney to Seattle puts a massive burden on Watt and Mercilus to get after the quarterback because there are real questions about this secondary. Roby had to sign a one-year, prove-it deal in Houston after a mediocre season in Denver last year. Cornerback Johnathan Joseph is 35 years old. Slot corner Aaron Colvin couldn’t even get on the field last year after signing a four-year, $34 million deal. McKinney and Cunningham can be exploited in coverage. The Texans’ pass defense finished 19th in DVOA last season, and it could fall even further in 2019. Houston also enjoyed a plus-13 turnover differential—including 29 takeaways—en route to the playoffs in 2018, and that number should come back to earth a bit. </p>
<p id="wd6MS0"><strong>Stat of note: </strong>32nd. That’s where the Texans would have finished in rushing DVOA without Watson’s carries, according to the Football Outsiders Almanac. </p>
<p id="9jQDrf"><strong>Breakout player: </strong>Justin Reid. This one feels a bit cheap, because Reid had a solid rookie season in 2018. But the safety also gave up his share of big plays. If Reid can limit the massive gains and keep the highlight plays in coverage, he has a chance to develop into a star. </p>
<h3 id="bWxtWS">13. Dallas Cowboys </h3>
<p id="8ilrUn"><strong>2018 record: </strong>10-6<br><strong>2018 DVOA: </strong>24th on offense; ninth on defense </p>
<p id="D5EKDo"><strong>Best-case scenario: </strong>The Cowboys ran one of the stalest, least inventive offenses in football last season. As teams around the league embraced a variety of formations and increased pre-snap motion, offensive coordinator Scott Linehan was content with being predictable. The fundamentals of the Dallas offense will remain the same in 2019 <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nfl-preview/2019/8/15/20806357/dallas-cowboys-new-offense-dak-prescott-ezekiel-elliott-kellen-moore">under first-year coordinator Kellen Moore</a>, but expect the Cowboys to dress up and disguise their intentions more than they have in years past. Differences in formations, motions to empty sets, and tweaks in receiver splits and alignments could help Dak Prescott have a stellar season—and quiet those who don’t think Prescott is worth the market-setting payday that he’s looking for. </p>
<p id="SjUERc">The entire offense is stocked with talent, which is part of the reason last season was so frustrating. The offensive line—headlined by All-Pros Tyron Smith, Travis Frederick, and Zack Martin—has ranked among the league’s best for years, and Frederick’s return after <a href="https://www.dallasnews.com/sports/cowboys/2019/08/04/after-lengthy-recovery-cowboys-travis-frederick-just-thankful-to-feel-normal/">missing the entire 2018 season</a> should boost the group back to that level. Frederick has the ability to make blocks in the running game that few other centers can pull off, which results in consistently easier assignments for the Cowboys’ guards. Getting him back is more than just a talent upgrade. It could be transformational for this group. </p>
<p id="dvEmam">It’s starting to <a href="https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1168936448281784320?s=20">sound</a> like Ezekiel Elliott’s contract holdout will end before the season begins. Wide receiver Amari Cooper was fantastic after arriving last October via trade, and second-year receiver Michael Gallup was a standout throughout training camp. Rookie running back Tony Pollard should give the Cowboys a dynamic they’ve lacked in recent years, even with Elliott back in the fold. If Moore can modernize this offense and create an infrastructure that helps his quarterback, the Cowboys have a chance to jump from a below-average to a top-12 unit. </p>
<p id="3FG4MA">Last season, first-year defensive backs coach (and de facto defensive coordinator) Kris Richard transformed the Cowboys’ young, talented defense into one of the league’s best. Leighton Vander Esch and Jaylon Smith—who just received a six-year, $68 million extension—form the most explosive linebacker duo in the NFL, and with players like Demarcus Lawrence, Byron Jones, and the recently acquired Robert Quinn filling out the rest of the unit, last season might have been just the beginning of a long run of defensive excellence. If the Cowboys’ young stable of corners—namely, safety Xavier Woods—can take steps forward this season, this could be one of the best defenses in the entire NFL. A string of excellent draft picks will require the Cowboys to do plenty of financial maneuvering in the next year, but it’s also given Dallas one of the most stacked rosters in football. </p>
<p id="EOe1zZ"><strong>Worst-case scenario: </strong>Moore has said all the right things about updating the Cowboys’ scheme this season, but head coach Jason Garrett will still have plenty of say in how the offense is run. If Garrett’s influence causes the Cowboys to revert back to Linehan’s approach, it could make for another disappointing showing. That scheme contributed to Prescott’s forgettable season, and he deserves the benefit of the doubt until we see him in a better system. But it’s also possible that his standout rookie year was mainly a product of his great supporting cast. </p>
<p id="0CV7Fw">That version of the Cowboys’ offensive line was one of the best groups the NFL has seen in years, and even though most of those pieces are back, that level of dominance is probably a thing of the past. Smith has been dealing with back issues for years, which is a major concern for a 320-pound tackle. Frederick may never reach the level he did before Guillain-Barré syndrome cost him the 2018 season. And recently extended right tackle La’el Collins still has lapses in his pass protection. In the receiving corps, Cooper is the only reliable piece that Cowboys have right now. Jason Witten is back, but at age 37, he won’t offer much. Slot receiver Randall Cobb hasn’t eclipsed 653 receiving yards since 2015. </p>
<p id="Byqb9x">It’s tempting to think that the defense’s performance last season was an indication of what’s to come, but defensive success is often hard to predict from year to year. Outside of Lawrence, there are concerns about the pass rush. Quinn will miss the first two games of the season and hasn’t been dominant for years, and the Cowboys interior defensive line isn’t going to scare anyone. Strong safety Jeff Heath is a liability at times, and looming paydays for their stars prevented the Cowboys from addressing that position during free agency. If Moore can’t jumpstart the offense and the unsung members of the defense can’t improve enough to stave off regression, last year’s playoff berth could prove to be a fluke. </p>
<p id="Viy4c9"><strong>Stat of note: </strong>24.7. That was the Cowboys’ snap-weighted age on defense last season, which made them the youngest unit in the league, according to Football Outsiders. Three key members of the secondary — Woods, Jourdan Lewis, and Chidobe Awuzie — are all entering their third seasons. If that group can continue to improve, it’ll go a long way toward keeping Dallas in the top tier of NFL defenses. </p>
<p id="t8qc7B"><strong>Breakout player: </strong>Gallup. The second-year receiver has the tools to develop into a deep-ball specialist, and his skills there could help unlock an underrated aspect of Prescott’s game. Last season, Prescott’s 115.7 QB rating on throws of 20-plus yards ranked fourth in the NFL behind Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, and Aaron Rodgers, according to Pro Football Focus. The problem is that Prescott threw deep on only 10.8 percent of passes, which ranked 20th out of 24 qualified QBs. </p>
<h3 id="3cGJJU">12. Minnesota Vikings</h3>
<p id="cUhIS6"><strong>2018 record: </strong>8-7-1<br><strong>2018 DVOA: </strong>18th on offense; fourth on defense </p>
<p id="WGHsmN"><strong>Best-case scenario: </strong>Minnesota’s first season with Kirk Cousins was a disappointment, but it’s hard to lay all the blame on the $84 million quarterback. The Vikings’ offensive line was a mess all season, the running game was a disaster, and offensive coordinator John DeFilippo was fired after 14 games. Cousins played fairly well last season, given the circumstances, and this year, he steps into an offense <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nfl-preview/2019/8/19/20811425/minnesota-vikings-kirk-cousins-kevin-stefanski-gary-kubiak-offensive-identity">perfectly suited to his talents</a>. Minnesota retained interim coordinator Kevin Stefanski and hired long-time NFL coach Gary Kubiak as a senior offensive assistant. The Vikings will shape their attack around a zone running game and use play-action passing as a complement to that. Cousins is consistently one of the best play-action passers in the NFL; he completed 8.9 percent more of his passes last year when using a play fake, tied for the third-highest rate in the league, according to Pro Football Focus, and he’s ranked near the top of the NFL in that metric virtually every season he’s been a starter.</p>
<p id="KeOoV7">The Vikings’ scheme change should bring out the best in their quarterback, as should the additions Minnesota made to its personnel. New starting center and 2019 first-round pick Garrett Bradbury has the ideal movement skills to fit this offense; Minnesota signed starting-caliber guard Josh Kline to a deal with only a $3.1 million cap hit in 2019; and starting right tackle Brian O’Neill should be better in his second season. Along with improved health from tackle Riley Reiff and guard Pat Elflein on the left side, the Vikings’ line should be considerably better in 2019. </p>
<p id="F1mpbJ">That’s good news for Dalvin Cook, who had a rough year coming back from a torn ACL and playing behind a piecemeal line. Kubiak’s system has a history of churning out prolific seasons from its running backs, and Cook may be next in line. This offense also features arguably the league’s top wide receiver duo in Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen, and the passing game should benefit from more two-tight-end sets featuring Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith Jr. All signs point to a considerable jump for this unit in 2019. </p>
<p id="pRLTJS">A better year from the offense would be enough to put Minnesota in playoff contention if the defense remains steady. Head coach Mike Zimmer belongs in any discussion about the top defensive minds in football, and after coaxing linebacker Anthony Barr back to the team following a brief free-agent dalliance with the Jets, the Vikings are returning virtually every key piece from the group that finished in the top four by defensive DVOA in each of the past two seasons. With Barr, defensive end Danielle Hunter, and safety Harrison Smith, this defense features stars at every level, and there are no glaring weaknesses to be found. </p>
<p id="ud9q4u"><strong>Worst-case scenario: </strong>A commitment to a run-zone running approach is fine if the end game is an offense built on play action; the concern is that Zimmer may tip the scales in the other direction. The <a href="http://www.startribune.com/vikings-coaching-staff-is-of-one-accord-in-run-first-philosophy/559207682/">company line</a> in the Twin Cities is that the Vikings will be a physical, run-first team. That’s worrisome no matter how effective a team’s running game is, and even with its improvements, no one is confusing this offensive line with the 2016 Cowboys. If Zimmer keeps his thumb on his 37-year-old coordinator and the Vikings lean too heavily on the run, this offense won’t have a chance to reach its ceiling. </p>
<p id="FTNqKU">Concerns also remain about some of the personnel on that side of the ball. Rudolph will turn 30 in November, and he’s been in decline for the past couple of seasons (especially as a blocker). Smith has promise as a receiver, but rookie tight ends typically face a steep learning curve. Outside of Thielen and Diggs, there’s no reliable third receiver on this offense. (Josh Doctson probably isn’t <a href="http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001046107/article/vikings-sign-josh-doctson-days-after-cutting-treadwell">going to</a> cut it, either.) During his best years in Washington, Cousins was surrounded by a stable of excellent pass catchers, and the fringes of that group just don’t compare. </p>
<p id="4fwzbu">Defensive success is assumed with this unit, but even if the names are the same, this group isn’t of the same caliber as it was two or three years ago. Cornerback Xavier Rhodes fell off precipitously last season. That could be attributable to nagging injuries, but at $13.3 million, he’ll carry the eighth largest cap hit among cornerbacks in 2019, and if he can’t rebound, it’ll be a significant problem. Cornerback depth has long been a strength of this team, but with 2018 first-round pick Mike Hughes returning from a torn ACL and some wondering whether slot corner Mackensie Alexander’s late-season run last year was a mirage, that group is more uncertain than ever. Barr and fellow linebacker Eric Kendricks also had their share of problems in coverage last season, which could be an even bigger issue if the cornerback group slips. In years past, this group was two deep at nearly every position. That depth is no longer a reality, and no area of this defense can afford to sustain long-term injuries. </p>
<p id="63YMsX"><strong>Stat of note: </strong>52.4. That’s the percentage of plays in which the Vikings created pressure when blitzing last season—the third-highest rate in the league, <a href="https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2019/pressure-number-pass-rushers-2018">according to</a> Football Outsiders. Zimmer doesn’t blitz as much as some other teams around the league, but when he does, it usually comes at the right time. Minnesota also had the third best-DVOA when sending extra pass rushers. </p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Minnesota Vikings v New Orleans Saints" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ZgoYUv4c0GCovOR-Om2CRbRGTJQ=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19166503/1167263668.jpg.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Sean Gardner/Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>Garrett Bradbury</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="vUlXim"><strong>Breakout player: </strong>Bradbury. It’s not easy for most people to get excited about drafting an offensive lineman in the first round. I am not most people. Bradbury’s skill set could not fit this system any better. He has a chance to make an immediate impact that trickles down to the entire offensive line. </p>
<h3 id="8J6V2U">11. Los Angeles Chargers</h3>
<p id="h5JMK3"><strong>2018 record: </strong>12-4<br><strong>2018 DVOA: </strong>Third on offense; eighth on defense </p>
<p id="0efxrg"><strong>Best-case scenario: </strong>The Chargers were one of the best teams in football last season on both sides of the ball, and they’re returning most of their core. Even with safety Derwin James starting the season on injured reserve, this defense is absolutely loaded. Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram are arguably the top edge duo in the NFL, and the addition of first-round pick Jerry Tillery gives this front an interior pass-rushing presence that it’s lacked in recent years. The Chargers also have a stacked cornerback group that features Casey Hayward, Michael Davis, and excellent slot man Desmond King. If rookie free safety Nasir Adderley can find his way into the lineup relatively early after missing most of the preseason with a hamstring injury, this could be a suffocating coverage unit. </p>
<p id="jY6Jra">Philip Rivers is virtually indestructible at this point, and he’s got a nice collection of receivers at his disposal. Keenan Allen is a perennial member of the Always Open Club, and third-year wideout Mike Williams has a chance to break out in a big way now that Tyrell Williams has gone to the Raiders. Tight end Hunter Henry is back healthy after missing nearly the entire 2018 season with a torn ACL, and even if the team is without Melvin Gordon while he sorts out his contract dispute, Austin Ekeler is among the most effective pass-catching running backs in the entire league. </p>
<p id="J6iVdR"><strong>Worst-case scenario: </strong>The Chargers Curse has set in earlier than normal this season. James is on IR, left tackle Russell Okung is out indefinitely after suffering blood clots this offseason, and there’s no telling how the situation with Gordon will play out. Among that group, James is easily the biggest loss. There’s no way coordinator Gus Bradley can replicate <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2018/11/29/18117075/derwin-james-los-angeles-chargers-perfect-nfl-defender">everything the safety brings to this defense</a>, even with a combination of multiple guys. James can just as easily function 20 yards down the field in coverage as he can near the line of scrimmage, and losing him will limit how Bradley game plans. </p>
<p id="oQ30mz">Okung’s absence is a problem for the offensive line, but the issues up front go much deeper. With 2018 undrafted free agent Trent Scott filling in on the left side and Sam Tevi manning the right tackle spot, the Chargers might have the weakest tackle duo in the league outside of Miami. Things aren’t much better at guard, where 2017 second-round pick Forrest Lamp failed to beat out incumbent starters Dan Feeney and Michael Schofield. It would be difficult for any offense to function with a line like this—let alone one that’s trying to compete with teams like the Patriots and Chiefs in the AFC. And a reminder: Injuries up front have a snowball effect, and this is how the Chargers are <em>starting </em>the season. If Rivers is constantly playing from a crumbling pocket, this passing game has little chance to succeed. </p>
<p id="T4ZyXD"><strong>Stat of note: </strong>80.3. That’s the percentage of plays where the Chargers sent four rushers last season, the second-highest mark in the league, according to Pro Football Focus. Having Bosa and Ingram allows Bradley to drop seven into coverage and still generate pressure—and the Chargers finished eighth in DVOA on such plays. </p>
<p id="TkWXQf"><strong>Breakout player: </strong>Tillery. Interior pass rushers have never been more valuable in the NFL, and getting after the quarterback is what the Notre Dame product does best. He’ll see plenty of single blocks in packages with Bosa and Ingram, and he should be able to roast guards alive from Day 1. </p>
<h3 id="sRKRs6">10. Chicago Bears </h3>
<p id="8ArW56"><strong>2018 Record: </strong>12-4<br><strong>2018 DVOA: </strong>20th on offense; first on defense </p>
<p id="QLUdX7"><strong>Best-case scenario: </strong>As a Chicago resident and Bears fan, I can tell you that the attitude around this city is Super Bowl or bust. This roster has no noticeable weaknesses. The Bears had the best defense in football last season, and they’ll return nine starters on that side of the ball. The other two—slot corner Bryce Callahan and safety Adrian Amos—were lost in free agency and replaced by Buster Skrine and Ha Ha Clinton-Dix. Khalil Mack still leads the way up front, with quality pieces like Akiem Hicks and Eddie Goldman pushing the interior of the pocket. Free safety Eddie Jackson is arguably the best play-making defensive back in the NFL, and the Bears’ cornerback pairing of Kyle Fuller and Prince Amukamara was lights out in 2018. Last year’s first-round pick, Roquan Smith, is likely going to take a significant step forward in his second season, and that type of boost could help this group fight off the regression that many believe is on its way. </p>
<p id="Bk3VoY">On offense, the Bears return 10 of their 11 starters, and some would say the one new face—running back David Montgomery—is actually an upgrade over last year’s starter, Jordan Howard. Chicago dealt Howard to the Eagles this offseason in large part because they felt like his skillset made the offense too predictable. That won’t be a problem with Montgomery, who has shown great balance and tackle-breaking ability in some exciting preseason performances, and also doubles as a capable receiver. Along with Tarik Cohen, this duo gives the Bears two pass-catching backs who will keep defenses guessing. The rest of the pass-catching corps also returns. Allen Robinson is a year removed from the ACL injury he suffered at the beginning of the 2017 season, and if his performance against the Eagles in last year’s playoffs is any indication, he’s ready to take off. Taylor Gabriel is a solid field-stretching option, and slot receiver Anthony Miller should be a bigger factor if he can stay healthy in his second season. The offensive line remains one of the more complete groups in the NFL, with second-year man James Daniels stepping in at center and recently extended Cody Whitehair shifting to guard. </p>
<p id="m9FVSj">That type of swap may seem insignificant, but opportunities for marginal improvement like that exist all over the offense. Daniels has a chance to be a star at center after getting time at guard early last season. Miller and Montgomery should give this group a different dynamic. Former Patriots gadget player Cordarrelle Patterson could be another explosive option. Even with most of the same supporting cast returning, a small boost here or there could transform the feel of this offense.</p>
<p id="hNQfvC">But all the incremental improvements in the world don’t compare to what could happen if Mitchell Trubisky takes a leap in his second season with head coach Matt Nagy. Nagy’s offense, which borrows heavily from Andy Reid’s scheme in Kansas City, is a dense study that would take a long time for any quarterback to master. Patrick Mahomes got to spend his first year in the system studying with Reid and Alex Smith rather than learning in front of a national audience. Trubisky has all the tools to be an above-average NFL quarterback. The one area where he’s struggled most is his ability to process information post-snap, and with a full season—and a second offseason—under his belt, he could absolutely improve in that area. Nagy and general manager Ryan Pace have built one of the most friendly environments in the NFL for their 25-year-old quarterback. If he can take full advantage, there’s no reason this team can’t compete for a championship. </p>
<div class="c-float-left"> <figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Chicago Bears v Indianapolis Colts" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/3fjWbTiCPlRhEvFuRMgkA-cpxSU=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19166509/1165511414.jpg.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>Mitchell Trubisky</figcaption>
</figure>
</div>
<p id="lGDNNl"><strong>Worst-case scenario: </strong>But that’s a big “if.” Trubisky’s decision-making last season, both in how he deciphered coverages and distributed his throws, was erratic. His lack of confidence often causes sloppy mechanics that lead to air-mailed throws and errant deep balls. Even with more time in the system, it’s possible that this is just who Trubisky is as a quarterback. And if that’s the case, it’s going to be difficult for the Bears to replicate the 12-4 finish they had in 2018. </p>
<p id="CQNs7o">That’s because Chicago is almost certainly going to need an offensive improvement to make up for the coming dropoff on defense. There’s plenty of evidence to suggest that defenses that heavily rely on turnovers (Chicago had a league-leading 36 takeaways in 2018) and injury luck (third lowest adjusted games lost in the NFL) will regress the following year. Chicago’s starting lineup stacks up to any defense in the league, but the Bears are a capped-out team with very little depth. Multiple injuries to any position group would be difficult to overcome. </p>
<p id="O2IhM8">There’s also the matter of losing the NFL’s best defensive play caller. Former coordinator Vic Fangio, who left to take the Broncos’ head coaching job this offseason, is the most creative defensive mind in the league. He’ll be replaced by Chuck Pagano, who hasn’t called defensive plays since 2011 when he was the coordinator in Baltimore. Even if Pagano finds his footing again, he still isn’t Fangio. Chicago’s defense could remain great this season, but if it falls from the league’s best to somewhere in the bottom half of the top 10 and Trubisky’s offense <em>doesn’t </em>improve, a lot of Bears fans are going to have a soul-crushing winter. </p>
<p id="QxNKYz"><strong>Stat of note: </strong>7.7. Going back 10 years, that’s an average of how many spots the no. 1 team in defensive DVOA has fallen the following season, according to the Football Outsiders Almanac. Pessimism about the Bears defense has nothing to do with not believing in the personnel or Pagano. It’s about believing in math. </p>
<p id="ogZXk0"><strong>Breakout player: </strong>Montgomery. During his final two seasons at Iowa State, Montgomery forced 185 missed tackles, the highest total in FBS, according to Pro Football Focus. No skill is more translatable from college to the NFL. Chicago moved up 14 spots in the third round to snag Montgomery in this year’s draft, and so far, it looks like that could be a steal. </p>
<h3 id="3OajKR">9. Carolina Panthers</h3>
<p id="MnT2WY"><strong>2018 record: </strong>7-9<br><strong>2018 DVOA: </strong>11th on offense; 22nd on defense</p>
<p id="XyKMYS"><strong>Best-case scenario: </strong>I roundly criticized the Panthers’ decision to hire 60-something offensive coordinator Norv Turner last offseason and I couldn’t have been more wrong. For the first half of last season, Carolina deployed one of the most creative, difficult-to-defend offenses, replete with tons of motion, RPOs, and one of the best designed running games. Cam Newton was playing some of the most efficient football of his career during the Panthers’ 6-2 start—before it all came crashing down. Newton’s injured throwing shoulder sabotaged Carolina’s offense during the second half of the year, and the Panthers’ season went down in flames.</p>
<p id="Wv52q8">Newton’s health is easily the most important question surrounding the 2019 Panthers, but if he’s right, this offense could be even better than it was last season. Running back Christian McCaffrey was brilliant in his second season, and he once again figures to be the focal point of Carolina’s scheme as both a runner and receiver. D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel might be the fastest starting receiver duo in the NFL, and Carolina does an excellent job getting them the ball down the field. Tight end Greg Olsen had surgery on his injured foot and looks noticeably healthier than he did last year. The main area of improvement, though, was on the offensive line. A healthy Daryl Williams will be added to the mix this year after re-signing to a one-year deal and stepping in at left tackle. The Panthers brought in former Broncos center Matt Paradis to fortify the middle of the line in one of the best free-agent moves of the offseason. With a right side consisting of tackle Taylor Moton and guard Trai Turner, this has a chance to be the best offensive line Newton has had in years. Carolina finished second in the NFL in rushing DVOA last season, and a combination of scheme and talent up front should keep that rolling this fall. </p>
<p id="cVaDgM">Another big question heading into the offseason, though, concerned the Panthers’ personnel on defense. Carolina was in serious need of a talent upgrade in its front four, and it certainly got one. The Panthers spent their first-round pick on Florida State pass rusher Brian Burns, who could immediately be the team’s best edge presence. Linebacker Bruce Irvin is also in the mix outside, along with tackle Gerald McCoy, whom the Panthers scooped up shortly after he was released by the Bucs. With McCoy, Kawann Short, and Dontari Poe inside and a rotation of Burns, Irvin, and Mario Addison on the edge, the Panthers should have a relatively versatile group that allows head coach Ron Rivera and coordinator Eric Washington to play a variety of fronts. </p>
<p id="PBlXAq">Luke Kuechly remains one of the best players in the NFL, and he’ll be joined in the back seven by an intriguing mix of players. Second-year cornerback Donte Jackson has the tools to be a star if he can put it all together this season. The Panthers brought in safety Tre Boston on a one-year deal to help solidify the back end. The challenge with any secondary is creating enough flexibility to keep the unit functioning even if injuries occur. With guys like Boston, Eric Reid, Ross Cockrell, and Rashaan Gaulden in the defensive backfield, the Panthers have exactly that. This is one of the soundest rosters in the entire NFL. </p>
<p id="Zr5O7i"><strong>Worst-Case Scenario: </strong>Health is the no. 1 factor with the Panthers. If Newton’s shoulder holds him back, then it’ll be another lost season. He doesn’t have to show off the rocket arm he had earlier in his career, but if he’s unable to make even simple throws in this offense, Carolina has no chance to keep up in the NFC. </p>
<p id="8VkPCd">The offensive personnel has a few noticeable holes. It would have been nice to see second-round pick Greg Little make it into the mix somewhere along the offensive line, but Greg Van Roten will hold onto the job at left guard for now. Beyond Moore and Samuel, there’s no one to get excited about in this pass-catching group. The Panthers signed former Patriots receiver Chris Hogan this offseason, but this team’s best personnel grouping will likely be two tight end sets with their top pair of receivers, Olsen, and 2018 fourth-round pick Ian Thomas. </p>
<p id="w7Mo5W">Burns has all the makings of a star, but if he can’t give some teeth to this pass rush immediately, that could spell trouble for Carolina. The Panthers learned firsthand last season just how much their defense can struggle when they can’t get after the quarterback. Carolina <a href="https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2019/pressure-number-pass-rushers-2018">finished</a> 29th in defensive DVOA last season when sending four rushers and was forced to blitz more than Rivera’s teams have in years past. The secondary is solid, but it’s not a strength. The Panthers will need a lot more consistent pressure for this defense to get back to how it was in 2017. </p>
<p id="v7iTL8"><strong>Stat of Note: </strong>1.77. That was McCaffrey’s average yards per route run last season, which ranked sixth among running backs. McCaffrey’s massive receiving totals last year weren’t just a product of volume. He’s the perfect modern running back. </p>
<p class="c-end-para" id="01VHpg"><strong>Breakout Player: </strong>Burns. At nearly 6-foot-5, he just shouldn’t be able to have the movement skills he does. And he’s already more refined as a pass rusher than many players coming out of college. He has a chance to be one of the steals of this draft. </p>
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https://www.theringer.com/nfl-preview/2019/9/4/20848036/preseason-power-rankings-part-3-falcons-cowboys-bearsRobert Mays2019-09-03T08:14:30-04:002019-09-03T08:14:30-04:00NFL Preseason Power Rankings, Part 2: Striking Gold or Out of Luck?
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<p>Can the Colts make the most of their roster without Andrew Luck? Will the Ravens’ revolutionary offense hold up to the test? And what is going on with Jimmy G in San Francisco? </p> <p class="p--has-dropcap" id="Qo7eer">We kicked things off Monday with the <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nfl-preview/2019/9/2/20841382/preseason-power-rankings-part-1-giants-raiders-jets-cardinals">first batch of teams</a> in my 2019 preseason power rankings, and Tuesday’s group is full of franchises at various points in their trajectories. We’ve got two teams at a potential crossroads with lame duck quarterbacks. We’ve got one that just lost its franchise quarterback two weeks before the season. And we’ve got another with a brain trust that might be out of time. </p>
<p id="FUsUIo">No matter where these teams are headed, though, it’s unlikely that any will make a significant splash in 2019. This tier is typically reserved for teams on the outside looking in, and that’s no exception this season.</p>
<h3 id="HOEf01">24. Denver Broncos</h3>
<p id="hDBwsN"><strong>2018 record: </strong>6-10 <br><strong>2018 DVOA: </strong>14th on offense; fifth on defense </p>
<p id="P4gQU6"><strong>Best-case scenario: </strong>I miss Vic Fangio so much it hurts sometimes. As a Bears fan, I’m familiar with the excellence the Broncos’ first-year head coach can craft on defense, and that side of the ball will be the most important factor in Denver’s success this season. Outside of New England, Fangio is easily the most inventive defensive mind in football. Through his use of mixed coverages and hard-to-decipher schemes, he’s tapped into the best way to disrupt these high-scoring modern offenses. With Von Miller and Bradley Chubb rushing the passer on the outside—along with Fangio’s penchant for finding one-on-one matchups up front—and solid players like Derek Wolfe and Adam Gotsis on the interior, this defense should give opposing offenses fits. </p>
<div class="c-float-left"><aside id="5bpNtn"><div data-anthem-component="readmore" data-anthem-component-data='{"stories":[{"title":"NFL Preseason Power Rankings, Part 1: Fish Tanking, Frostbite, and a New York State of Dread","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nfl-preview/2019/9/2/20841382/preseason-power-rankings-part-1-giants-raiders-jets-cardinals"},{"title":"NFL Preseason Power Rankings, Part 3: The Seahawks’ Stock Is Up, and the Texans’ … We’ll See","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nfl-preview/2019/9/4/20848036/preseason-power-rankings-part-3-falcons-cowboys-bears"},{"title":"NFL Preseason Power Rankings, Part 4: Philly Special Is Back and Ready for Round 2","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2019/9/5/20849931/preseason-power-rankings-part-4-patriots-chiefs-rams-saints"}]}'></div></aside></div>
<p id="9Xp7kH">Denver’s main defensive upgrades this offseason came in the secondary. Fangio brought former Bears slot corner Bryce Callahan to town on a three-year, $21 million deal and also signed former Texans safety/cornerback Kareem Jackson to a three-year, $33 million contract. Jackson found a new niche last season in his move to safety, and he should slot into a starting role there next to Justin Simmons, who figures to have a bounceback year with more positional stability and better talent around him. Signing Callahan means that Chris Harris Jr.’s days as a slot corner are over, but he remains one of the best cover men in the league, regardless of where he lines up. As a whole, this group has more than enough talent to thrive. </p>
<p id="PlhWq5">It’s tougher to find optimism on the offensive side, but coaxing offensive line coach Mike Munchak—who interviewed to be Denver’s <em>head </em>coach this offseason—away from Pittsburgh was a definite coup for a team that’s struggled to develop players up front. Denver also signed former Dolphins right tackle Ja’Wuan James to a market-setting four-year, $51 million deal this spring and drafted guard Dalton Risner in the second round. Risner has already looked like a steal through the preseason, and with Munchak overseeing this group, the Broncos offensive line should be better than it’s been in years. </p>
<p id="Obahfn">Fangio brought in former 49ers quarterbacks coach Rich Scangarello to coordinate the offense, which means Denver will be employing a similar play-action-heavy scheme to the one Kyle Shanahan runs in San Francisco. New Broncos quarterback Joe Flacco has had some success in an under-center, play-action offense in the past, and he’ll have plenty of receiving options. Emmanuel Sanders somehow looks explosive after tearing his Achilles last season. Second-year receiver Courtland Sutton is a downfield option that should take a step forward this season, and second-year slot receiver DaeSean Hamilton could make a jump this fall. Denver also spent the 20th overall pick on former Iowa tight end Noah Fant, who immediately steps into the league as one of the most athletically gifted players at his position. There’s a lot of projection here, but also a lot of potential. </p>
<p id="TKhM9x"><strong>Worst-case scenario: </strong>We’re not likely to see some sort of renaissance from Flacco at this point in his career. He’s been downright bad over the past few seasons, and no scheme change is likely to change that. Denver drafted Mizzou quarterback Drew Lock in the second round this spring, but he’s had a disastrous preseason that’s included several public floggings from Fangio. The Broncos have one of the worst quarterback situations in the NFL. That seems bad! </p>
<p id="d4g6pL">Even with Munchak coaching the line, there are still some questions up front. Left tackle Garett Bolles is a penalty machine—he led the league with seven holding flags last year—and at age 27, the technique issues that he displayed in college haven’t improved much in his two pro seasons. Denver also let quality center Matt Paradis walk in free agency, and 2016 fifth-round pick Connor McGovern will fill his spot in the middle of the line. </p>
<p id="galiWd">There’s also no guarantee that the Broncos’ skill position group will come together. Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman make for a quality running back duo, but Fant hasn’t lit the preseason on fire and Sutton had the second-worst drop rate in the league last season at 17.6 percent (according to Pro Football Focus). Combine all that uncertainty with a coach who’s calling plays for the first time in the NFL and this offense could be a serious problem. </p>
<p id="8rcaC2">Ideally, Fangio’s defense would be able to make up for any offensive shortcomings, but it may take a while for this group to acclimate to his complicated system. The Bears needed three seasons to fully find their footing, and the Broncos also have some personnel concerns that Chicago’s 2018 team didn’t. All of Fangio’s elite defenses over the past decade have had extremely athletic linebacker groups. This year, with Todd Davis and Josey Jewell on the inside, linebacker is the weakest area of Denver’s roster. And there’s also a question about how 2018 third-round pick Isaac Yiadom will fare as he steps into a starting outside cornerback role. Fangio will get the most out of this group, but it may not click right away. </p>
<p id="DlXILv"><strong>Stat of note: </strong>52.6. That was Flacco’s passer rating on throws of 20-plus yards last season, which was the second-lowest mark in the league, according to Pro Football Focus. His adjusted completion percentage of 30.8 was the worst in the league. Some still laud Flacco as a deep-ball master, but that just isn’t true anymore.</p>
<p id="cmFmA7"><strong>Breakout player: </strong>Risner. The Kansas State product played right tackle in college, but he should have no trouble making the transition to guard. Much like fellow K-State alum Cody Whitehair, Risner is a solid technician capable of playing all over the line. He was a home-run pick in the second round. </p>
<h3 id="5TDtQD">23. Buffalo Bills</h3>
<p id="qyQOHd"><strong>2018 record: </strong>6-10<br><strong>2018 DVOA: </strong>31st on offense; second on defense </p>
<p id="E5NJiR"><strong>Best-case scenario: </strong>With so much focus on Josh Allen’s (lack of) development and (surprising) fantasy relevance by the end of the season, it’s easy to forget just how good the Bills defense was in 2018. This unit has talent all over the place, but its strength is still the secondary. Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer make up one of the best safety duos in the league. Cornerback TreDavious White didn’t match his rookie-year production last season, but he’s still a solid building block. It sounds like 2018 undrafted free agent and pleasant surprise Levi Wallace will lock down the no. 2 cornerback spot, and free agent signee (and former first-round pick) Kevin Johnson will step in as the third corner—on a cheap deal, no less. </p>
<p id="BpQywA">The secondary is also aided by a frightening four-man pass rush. Buffalo brought four rushers on 72.8 percent of snaps last season (13th highest in the league, according to Football Outsiders) and generated pressure at the sixth-highest rate (33.8 percent). Defensive end Jerry Hughes continues to be a consistent force into his 30s. Among qualified edge defenders, Hughes was the most productive pass rusher in the NFL on a per-snap basis last season, according to Pro Football Focus, and totaled 74 disrupted dropbacks (tied with J.J. Watt for the second-highest total in the league). Pass rusher Lorenzo Alexander—still going strong at age 36—led all linebackers in disrupted dropbacks with 38. Plus, Houston defensive tackle Ed Oliver fell into the Bills’ laps with the ninth overall pick in this year’s draft. He should provide the perfect interior complement to Hughes and Alexander.</p>
<p id="GosDaN">Outside of Oliver, general manager Brandon Beane spent almost all the team’s resources this offseason trying to overhaul arguably the least talented offense in the NFL. John Brown, Cole Beasley, and Tyler Kroft were brought in to revamp the pass-catching group. The Bills signed center Mitch Morse to what was briefly the richest deal in NFL history for a center (four years, $44.5 million with $26.2 million guaranteed), handed former Redskins swing tackle Ty Nsekhe a two-year, $10 million deal to compete at right tackle, drafted Sooners mauler Cody Ford in the second round, and signed former Titans guard Quinton Spain to a $2 million deal. Beane also made several smaller signings along the offensive line, but we’ll likely see a starting five of incumbent left tackle Dion Dawkins, Spain, Morse, Ford, and Nsekhe. </p>
<p id="XTRuvS">Buffalo went from having arguably the league’s worst offensive line last season to an average one. The same can be said for the receiving corps. For a team trying to help a quarterback that drastically needs to improve, those kinds of upgrades can mean everything. Because when you break it all down, the Bills’ chances this season are still tied to Allen’s development. The rookie had plenty of horrendous misfires from last season, but he also inspired hope with some <a href="https://www.buffalobills.com/video/can-t-miss-play-allen-goes-deep-to-foster-for-75-yard-td-strike">thrilling</a> plays down the field. The additions of Brown, Beasley, and a revamped offensive line will give Allen the infrastructure he needs to get better in his second year. </p>
<p id="96Y3tq"><strong>Worst-case scenario: </strong>In theory, having Brown as a deep threat and Beasley as a middle-of-the-field option should help Allen, but there’s no evidence yet that he’ll be any good at utilizing them. Allen showed off his cannon a lot late last year on deep shots to undrafted gem Robert Foster, and he certainly isn’t afraid to let it fly (a league-leading 19.7 percent of his passes traveled 20-plus yards in the air, according to Pro Football Focus). But Allen ranked 20th among 24 qualified QBs in adjusted completion percentage on deep throws, and his passer rating of 62.9 ranked 22nd. He also continues to struggle with processing coverages and his short-range accuracy, which could hamper Beasley’s effectiveness. A lot has been made of Allen’s running prowess, but almost all of his rushing total came from scrambling rather than designed runs. There’s a limit to how much that can help an offense. </p>
<p id="akAyBj">Even if Allen can take a step forward in his second season, this offense still has a defined ceiling. Brown, Beasley, and a couple pieces on this offensive line are short-term solutions as the Bills tinker with a largely overhauled roster. This team is building something the right way, but it may still take a year before the vision fully comes to light. </p>
<p id="1zLbS0"><strong>Stat of note: </strong>3.22 seconds. That was Allen’s average time to throw in 2018, according to NFL Next Gen Stats—the highest in the league by 0.12 seconds. Along with his accuracy, Allen’s decision-making needs to improve considerably in year two.</p>
<p id="jQKfUX"><strong>Breakout player: </strong>Tremaine Edmunds. Wallace is another candidate here, but let’s go with the second-year linebacker who runs a 4.54 at 250 pounds. The Bills envisioned Edmunds as a guy who could erase plays in the middle of the field with his range and wingspan. If he can become that player this season, watch out. </p>
<h3 id="uk7V6n">22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers</h3>
<p id="hwBraN"><strong>2018 record: </strong>5-11<br><strong>2018 DVOA: </strong>12th on offense; 32nd on defense </p>
<p id="i9JBZ6"><strong>Best-case scenario: </strong>Of the eight teams entering the season with new coaching staffs, the Bucs made the most significant upgrade. Tampa Bay’s offense was both efficient and explosive in 2018 with then-coordinator Todd Monken calling plays, but Bruce Arians has a track record of success as an offensive coach. For the first time in his head coaching career, Arians will cede play-calling duties to first-year coordinator Byron Leftwich, and if Leftwich can find his sea legs quickly, this unit has the talent to emerge as one of the league’s more high-flying passing games. </p>
<p id="gzN758">Arians’s aggressive, downfield scheme is also well-suited to quarterback Jameis Winston’s playing style. Winston has a tendency to make a few head-scratching throws per game, but he’s an undeniably talented passer who could help this group take off—if Leftwich and Arians can curtail some of his mistakes. Then there’s Mike Evans, who is too often overlooked in a league loaded with elite receivers. Evans is one of three players in NFL history with at least 395 receptions, 6,100 receiving yards, and 40 touchdowns in his first five seasons. The other two are Randy Moss and A.J. Green. That’s pretty good company! It might sound ambitious to say that Evans could have the best season of his career under Arians, considering he caught 86 passes for 1,524 yards last year. But he’s a prime candidate to lead the NFL in receiving yards and touchdowns in 2019. </p>
<div class="c-float-left"> <figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Tampa Bay Buccaneers v Dallas Cowboys" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ThD4gZiFfQGuJn8KZ3piRsxtjMU=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19161744/1171008795.jpg.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>Jameis Winston</figcaption>
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<p id="G1Q7FU">The Winston-Evans connection would be enough to warrant excitement on its own, but the mammoth receiver is far from the Bucs’ only weapon on offense. Third-year receiver Chris Godwin is this year’s fantasy football darling. With DeSean Jackson gone to the Eagles, Godwin will step into the no. 2 receiver role and finally see time as a full-time starter. Former first-round pick O.J. Howard is one of the most athletic tight ends to come into the league in a long time, and he’ll be yet another big-play option. That trio (with no. 2 tight end Cameron Brate and deep threat Breshad Perriman mixed in) is arguably the NFL’s scariest collection of pass catchers. </p>
<p id="9SFbef">The offensive potential has long been there in Tampa, but the most important difference between last year’s team and this year’s is the outlook on defense. The defensive staff under former head coach Dirk Koetter was horrible. Coordinator Mike Smith trotted out some of the most predictable, simplistic looks in the league. Smith got canned in October and was replaced by career position coach Mark Duffner, who was coordinating a defense for the first time since the early 2000s. Arians has handed the defensive reins to Todd Bowles, and though he may not be Vic Fangio, Bowles is an accomplished coach who represents a <em>massive</em> upgrade from what the Bucs have had during the past few years. </p>
<p id="IaKgVy">Tampa Bay should be stout against the run, with Ndamukong Suh and 2018 first-round pick Vita Vea on the interior, but for what seems like the 10th straight year, the Bucs lack the same level of pass rushing talent on the outside. That’s where Bowles comes in. Last season with the Jets, Bowles’s blitz-happy scheme used five rushers on 29.4 percent of passes, which ranked seventh in the league, <a href="https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2019/pressure-number-pass-rushers-2018">according to</a> Football Outsiders. The Jets also blitzed a defensive back on 16.4 percent of passes, the second-highest mark. This year, 2019 first-round pick Devin White will be a crucial piece of that puzzle. The LSU product is a classic sideline-to-sideline linebacker (with 4.42 40 speed), but more importantly he profiles as one of Tampa Bay’s best pass rushers in this scheme. With White and Lavonte David in the middle, this team has plenty of athleticism at linebacker at a time when that’s more important than ever. </p>
<p id="aSOMvj">The biggest potential issue for this defense is in the secondary, an area that’s plagued Tampa Bay for years. Constant blitzing will put a lot of pressure on a young group that includes <em>seven </em>top-100 picks from the past four drafts—including 2016 first-rounder Vernon Hargreaves III, who’ll be back this year after missing most of 2018 with a torn labrum. Hargreaves has struggled to break through so far in his career, but playing under Bowles could finally be the key to unlocking the potential that general manager Jason Licht saw when he took the corner 11th overall. With all the investments the Bucs have made in the secondary, the hope is that a coaching upgrade could provide this defense with a functional set of five DBs. </p>
<p id="qkMlfJ"><strong>Worst-case scenario: </strong>Any optimism about the secondary is based on projections. There’s still not much evidence that young players like Hargreaves, Carlton Davis, Justin Evans, and a trio of 2019 rookies will be above-average players in the NFL. And this scheme will test them early and often by committing extra bodies to the pass rush. If this pass defense can’t come together, the Bucs will lose some shootouts in the same way that last year’s team did. </p>
<p id="QhlEYy">Meanwhile, there are two areas of the roster that could hold back the offense. The offensive line is one of the most expensive in football, but the quality of this group—outside of star left guard Ali Marpet—doesn’t match up with that investment. Donovan Smith is a talented but inconsistent left tackle with a $12.5 million cap hit. Demar Dotson is functional but aging at right tackle. Ryan Jensen has the fifth-highest cap hit in the league among centers ($10 million), but he didn’t play at that level in 2018. The Bucs’ running back situation is also a huge issue. With Peyton Barber and 2018 second-round misfire Ronald Jones II, there’s no one to get excited about in the backfield. </p>
<p id="TtuKoB">More than any position group, though, Tampa Bay’s biggest issue on offense remains Winston’s carelessness with the ball. His 3.0 interception rate is the second-highest mark since he came into the league in 2015, according to Football Outsiders. Tampa Bay led the league in both turnovers per drive and interceptions per drive last season. Pick-happy quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick didn’t help matters, but the Bucs also ranked 30th in turnovers per drive in 2017, when Winston started all but three games. If Leftwich and Arians can’t coach those awful throws out of their QB, the Bucs will stagnate once again. </p>
<p id="VR56K7"><strong>Stat of note: </strong>72.5 percent. That’s the completion percentage the Bucs defense surrendered last season, which was easily the highest mark in league history. This unit still has some question marks, but no matter what, it’ll be considerably better than it was in 2018. </p>
<p id="Cuk7DI"><strong>Breakout player: </strong>White. The right inside linebacker can be a transformative star in the modern era (see: Wagner, Bobby), and White has all the makings of that type of player. </p>
<h3 id="gG8SFt">21. Jacksonville Jaguars </h3>
<p id="H4sTkw"><strong>2018 record: </strong>5-11<br><strong>2018 DVOA: </strong>30th on offense; sixth on defense </p>
<p id="u9or9c"><strong>Best-case scenario: </strong>The Jaguars may finally have found some competence at quarterback. After jettisoning longtime starter Blake Bortles this offseason, Jacksonville handed Nick Foles a four-year, $88 million deal (with $50.1 million guaranteed). No one needs a refresher on what Foles did for the Eagles in recent years. His performance during Philadelphia’s Super Bowl run in 2017 and the playoffs last season are enough evidence to believe he’ll be an improvement over Bortles. And to get the most out of Foles, the Jaguars also hired his former quarterbacks coach, John DeFilippo, as their offensive coordinator. DeFilippo’s preference for a shotgun-based passing game should help make Foles’s transition as smooth as possible. </p>
<p id="4eW1ea">Just as important as signing Foles, though, is how much better the Jags could be up front in 2018. Jacksonville was decimated by injuries on offense last season—only the Redskins had more adjusted games lost (88.9) than Jacksonville (88.4), and most of those injuries came along the offensive line. Left tackle Cam Robinson tore his ACL in Week 2, center Brandon Linder missed the final seven games of the season with a knee injury, and high-priced free agent guard Andrew Norwell missed the final five games of the year with an ankle injury. All three look ready to go for Week 1, and the Jaguars also lucked into getting Florida tackle Jawaan Taylor—who many considered a top-10 talent—in the second round of this spring’s draft. He’ll start immediately at right tackle. An improved offensive line and more effective passing game should help running back Leonard Fournette, who averaged an absolutely brutal 3.3 yards per carry last season. </p>
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<p id="6qc1Ms">The fixation on the Jags’ offensive improvement is a product of how confident most still are about the defense. Jacksonville didn’t have the same game-wrecking unit in 2018 that it fielded the year before, but this is still an extremely talented group. The Jags added Kentucky pass rusher Josh Allen with the seventh overall pick this spring, which doesn’t seem particularly fair with Calais Campbell and Yannick Ngakoue already on the roster. Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye form one of the league’s best cornerback duos, and do-it-all linebacker Myles Jack was just rewarded with a four-year, $57 million deal. Jacksonville is hoping that if Foles and the offense can take a big step forward, the defense will be dominant enough to make this team a contender.</p>
<p id="HrFhhR"><strong>Worst-case scenario: </strong>The problem with that logic, though, is that there’s no reason to think the defense will be as good as it’s been the past couple years. Telvin Smith’s decision to take a year off from football creates a massive hole at linebacker, where rookie third-round pick Quincy Williams was supposed to step in before injuring his knee in early August. Safety, which was a strength when the Jags were at their best two seasons ago, is now a huge question mark, with former undrafted free agent Jarrod Wilson and 2018 third-round pick Ronnie Harrison slated to start. Adding Allen should help with a pass rush that fell off drastically in 2018, but the Jags also cut Malik Jackson this offseason to save money. This team has largely been built through free agency, and with so many large deals on the books, the window for Jacksonville’s defense to remain great was relatively small. </p>
<p id="tNFtDt">Better injury luck and even decent play from Foles should help the offense improve this year, but there’s cause for skepticism about this group too. Foles was downright bad at times with the Eagles during the regular season, and the Jaguars’ pass-catching group isn’t exactly stacked. Foles is at his best when targeting the middle of the field, and aside from slot receiver Dede Westbrook, Jacksonville doesn’t have many proven options in that area. There’s also the question of Foles’s health. The quarterback has never played a full season as a starter, and the Jags’ backup situation is <em>rough</em>. If Foles misses any time, Jacksonville is looking at life with sixth-round pick Gardner Minshew II as its starting quarterback. Overall this group should be better this year, but pull the wrong thread and things could unravel into a nightmare season. </p>
<p id="dWRQ2P"><strong>Stat of note: </strong>59 percent. That’s how often the Jags ran the ball directly behind the center with a second-half lead last season, according to Warren Sharp’s 2019 NFL preview. The league average was 30 percent. Jacksonville averaged 1.7 yards per carry on those plays. Bortles wasn’t the only problem with the Jaguars offense over the past couple seasons. </p>
<p id="PByo8p"><strong>Breakout player: </strong>Taylor. The Florida product was a dominant presence for the Gators, and he could be considered the steal of the draft by the end of this season. Landing Allen in the first round and snagging Taylor in the second was a massive break for the Jags. </p>
<h3 id="gV7k6y">20. Tennessee Titans</h3>
<p id="pnncwI"><strong>2018 record: </strong>9-7<br><strong>2018 DVOA: </strong>22nd on offense; 19th on defense</p>
<p id="1BA2l2"><strong>Best-case scenario: </strong>For the most part, the Titans have a similar roster to the one they fielded last season. The team’s two biggest offensive free agent additions were slot receiver Adam Humphries and former Rams guard Rodger Saffold. Longtime Dolphins pass rusher Cameron Wake joined the defensive front on a three-year, $23 million deal. But for the most part, Tennessee will be banking on continued improvement from its young core—which is why it’s difficult to find reasons this team could be better than it was in 2019. But let’s give it a whirl anyway. </p>
<p id="OjHPm4">Harold Landry showed flashes as a pass rusher during his rookie year, and he should only benefit from Wake’s arrival. Jurrell Casey is a bona fide star on the interior of the defensive line. The secondary has no real flaws, which is a good thing considering it’s the sixth-most-expensive defensive backfield in the NFL. And that’s <em>before </em>Pro Bowl safety Kevin Byard’s five-year, $70.5 million extension kicks in next season. </p>
<p id="If2AzZ">On offense, Derrick Henry’s late-season dominance is reason for hope, but this unit’s ceiling is all about the development of the passing game. Humphries gives this group a middle-of-the-field element it lacked last season. His presence, along with Delanie Walker’s return from injury, should be a big help for Marcus Mariota. The Titans also got some fresh backup for their starter by trading for Ryan Tannehill this offseason. It was a low-risk move that provides excellent insurance should Mariota go down with injury—something that’s been a problem over the past couple years. A better pass-catching corps and more games from a competent starting quarterback should mean a better season. </p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="NFL: Preseason-Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/4M2rdLb48IlfshMlUcZTGV_9Cpo=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19163121/usa_today_13278791.jpg">
<cite>Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports</cite>
<figcaption>Tennessee Titans head coach Mike Vrabel</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="8ubj2I"><strong>Worst-case scenario: </strong>But the question is how much better. Mariota is entering his fifth season, and now he has former tight ends coach Arthur Smith as his offensive coordinator. Even with a better group of pass catchers, expecting a different version of the quarterback to appear out of thin air isn’t reasonable. It also looks like fourth-year wideout Tajae Sharpe will start over second-round pick A.J. Brown in three-receiver sets with Humphries and Corey Davis. That can’t be what the Titans envisioned when they drafted Brown. </p>
<p id="fzgpeU">They also couldn’t have envisioned the offensive line going from this team’s greatest strength in 2016 to a weakness three years later. Left tackle Taylor Lewan is suspended for the first four games of the season after violating the league’s performance-enhancing drugs policy. That seems like a problem for a team whose quarterback can’t stay healthy. Jack Conklin has struggled since his great rookie season. Even with Saffold and underrated center Ben Jones, this group isn’t nearly what it was in recent years. </p>
<p id="HLHPtT">The defense has enough talent to again be solid, but that’s not really going to cut it. Wake is 37 years old and has been banged up a bit in recent years. Expecting more from Rashaan Evans and Landry is merely a projection. Tennessee used its first-round pick on Mississippi State defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons, who is slated to miss his entire rookie season after tearing his ACL this spring. Even if the defense does improve, the offense is still likely to languish just below average, and this team’s ceiling will be capped the same way it has been during Mariota’s first four seasons as a starter. </p>
<p id="1koM5A"><strong>Stat of note: </strong>27. That’s the percentage of Tennessee’s runs that went into light boxes last season, the lowest rate in the league, according to the <em>Football Outsiders Almanac</em>. The Titans absolutely loved running the ball with multiple tight ends on the field last season, which didn’t do their running backs many favors. </p>
<p id="f6LUo0"><strong>Breakout player: </strong>Landry. After playing behind incumbent starters Derrick Morgan and Brian Orakpo as a rookie, Landry will step into a full-time role in year two. Pass rushers tend to take a season or two to find their footing in the league, but Landry has the tools to become a consistent force for Tennessee off the edge. </p>
<h3 id="orGGrH">19. San Francisco 49ers</h3>
<p id="4ZnKLi"><strong>2018 record: </strong>4-12<br><strong>2018 DVOA: </strong>27th on offense; 23rd on defense </p>
<p id="3HEs9D"><strong>Best-case scenario: </strong>Injuries wreaked havoc on the Niners offense last year. That obviously starts with quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, who missed the final 13 games of the season with a torn ACL. But running back Jerick McKinnon and virtually every decent receiver on the roster also missed time. Head coach Kyle Shanahan was still able to scheme up a palatable offense with lesser players, like third-string quarterback and former practice squad member Nick Mullens, who averaged 8.3 yards per attempt in eight starts. Now San Francisco’s path to a playoff bid starts with getting—and keeping—Garoppolo and the rest of the unit healthy. If that happens, Shanahan should be able to open the entire playbook in 2019. </p>
<p id="GCIaJC">The pass-catching group starts with Pro Bowl tight end George Kittle, who set the NFL record for receiving yards at the position last season with 1,377. Kittle is a bonafide star, the sort of blocking-and-receiving double threat that we don’t see much of anymore at the tight end position. And this year, he shouldn’t have to shoulder the load alone. Second-year receiver Dante Pettis is an excellent fit for Shanahan’s offense, and the Niners have a deep stable of options after drafting South Carolina’s Deebo Samuel in the second round and Baylor’s Jalen Hurd in the third. Former Falcons running back Tevin Coleman reunites with Shanahan after signing a two-year, $8.5 million deal this offseason. Part of Coleman’s appeal is his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield or split out as a receiver, which gives Garoppolo yet another tool in the passing game. If Garoppolo has this full unit around him all season and can tap into some of the magic he found during the final five games of 2017, this could be a top-10 unit. </p>
<p id="tr3vSd">There isn’t nearly as much potential on defense, but the arrow is pointing up in a few crucial areas. The Niners had just two interceptions last year. Two! That partially stems from a lack of talent in the secondary and pass rush, but it’s also just terrible luck. That number should almost assuredly rise this season, and that uptick will be aided by a revamped pass rush. General manager John Lynch’s biggest investments of the offseason were in his front four, first dealing a second-round pick to the Chiefs for Dee Ford and then drafting Ohio State product Nick Bosa second overall. Ford led the league with 78 disrupted dropbacks last season, and Bosa profiles as a similar prospect to his brother, Joey. If that edge duo comes together with star interior lineman DeForest Buckner, the Niners should crank up the pressure and see a massive increase in takeaways. </p>
<p id="Y6jGZv"><strong>Worst-case scenario: </strong>Aside from the Bosa and Ford acquisitions, Lynch used his resources in curious ways this offseason. The Niners signed inside linebacker Kwon Alexander to a four-year, $54 million deal in March, and although only $14.3 million of that was guaranteed at signing, it’s still a sizable contract to hand a player coming off a torn ACL—especially when you take into account all the other holes remaining on coordinator Robert Saleh’s defense. Other than Richard Sherman, the Niners don’t have a proven, reliable cornerback on the roster. Lynch rolled the dice on oft-injured Chargers first-round pick Jason Verrett with a one-year, $1.5 million deal, but Verrett’s already missed nearly a month of practice with a sprained ankle he suffered in early August. San Francisco is also short on talent at safety. Even if Ford and Bosa (who also missed nearly a month of practice after severely spraining his ankle) bring some teeth to this pass rush, the Niners defense is still vulnerable in too many areas. </p>
<p id="ae5UPZ">Given the team’s resources, the offense will have to carry most of the burden, and success on that side of the ball is not a guarantee. The Niners have a lot of wide receivers, but few proven ones. San Francisco fell short in the Odell Beckham Jr. sweepstakes this offseason, and they’re without a true no. 1 option on the outside. Ultimately, though, Garoppolo will determine whether this offense sinks or swims. </p>
<div class="c-float-left"> <figure class="e-image">
<img alt="NFL: Preseason-San Francisco 49ers at Kansas City Chiefs" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/MO7ND_D4M79JZRudaFo1Anwbeto=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19163124/usa_today_13295587.jpg">
<cite>Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports</cite>
<figcaption>Jimmy Garoppolo</figcaption>
</figure>
</div>
<p id="AnfYqL">Garoppolo did not look comfortable in his three starts last season. He still struggles to process information quickly at times, and in this offense—where <em>someone </em>is usually open on every play—progressing to the right receiver on time is paramount. It may sound strange because he’s in his sixth season, will turn 28 in early November, and has $74 million guaranteed on his current contract, but Garoppolo is still an inexperienced QB. He’s started just 10 games in his career, and he should absolutely be better with another year of experience in Shanahan’s offense. But the Niners are running out of time. The clock started ticking the moment Lynch traded for the QB in 2017 and handed him a mega-extension. If the Niners miss the playoffs again this season, sweeping changes could be around the corner. </p>
<p id="5R1uXh"><strong>Stat of note: </strong>41. That’s the percentage of snaps where the Niners used 21 personnel (two running backs, two receivers, one tight end) last season. They were the only team in the league to use two backs more often than they used three receivers. Shanahan is a master of using different personnel packages to dress up concepts and create chunk plays in the passing game. San Francisco averaged 8.3 yards per attempt out of 21 personnel. </p>
<p id="ga48iw"><strong>Breakout player: </strong>Bosa. It seems reductive to compare Bosa to his brother, but their playing styles are nearly identical—down to their favorite pass-rush moves. Nick wasn’t a combine marvel and didn’t pile up huge stats even when healthy in college, but he has all the makings of a consistently productive NFL pass rusher.</p>
<h3 id="IwGOFH">18. Indianapolis Colts</h3>
<p id="ADkFoA"><strong>2018 record: </strong>10-6<br><strong>2018 DVOA: </strong>10th on offense; 10th on defense </p>
<p id="sZVN0f"><strong>Best-case scenario: </strong>The ideal outcome involves building a time machine and going back to convince Andrew Luck to stick around, but without some rapid scientific advancements over the next few days, that doesn’t seem feasible. There’s no way around this: Luck’s retirement is a devastating blow for a franchise that harbored Super Bowl aspirations heading into the season. But there’s still hope that the Colts can contend in the AFC South, even without their franchise quarterback. </p>
<aside id="MJVVx1"><div data-anthem-component="readmore" data-anthem-component-data='{"stories":[{"title":"Everything You Need to Know About Andrew Luck’s Retirement","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2019/8/25/20832279/everything-you-need-to-know-about-andrew-lucks-retirement"}]}'></div></aside><p id="jnZiQD">Indy has built one of the best offensive infrastructures in the league. Head coach Frank Reich was a revelation in his first year as the Colts’ play-caller last season, and he showed he belongs in the conversation with Andy Reid, Sean Payton, Doug Pederson, and Sean McVay as an elite offensive mind. Players will be running open in this offense, which is a far cry from the situation Jacoby Brissett was in when he took over as the starter in 2017. The Colts also have plenty of pass-catching talent, with T.Y. Hilton headlining the receiver group and free agent signee Devin Funchess and gadget-play threat Parris Campbell likely to see plenty of work. Reich knows exactly how to find matchup advantages via formation, and Indy is likely going to lean on two-tight-end sets featuring Eric Ebron and Jack Doyle. And with a versatile stable of backs to choose from, this group has more than enough talent to get the most out of Brissett. </p>
<p id="xzirW9">Offensive line became a strength for the Colts in 2018. Center Ryan Kelly had a career year, and general manager Chris Ballard drafted generational guard prospect Quenton Nelson sixth overall last spring while adding right tackle Braden Smith in the second round. The Colts gave up a league-low 18 sacks in 2018, and even if that number regresses a bit this fall, this should still be a quality pass-blocking group. </p>
<p id="xESQbg">The defense is also one of the most promising young units in the NFL. Coordinator Matt Eberflus was fantastic in his first season filling that role at the NFL level (see: the Colts’ 21-7 wild-card win over the Texans). His group was led by All-Pro rookie linebacker Darius Leonard, and slot cornerback Kenny Moore, safety Malik Hooker, and defensive tackle Denico Autry also looked like important building blocks. Indy’s biggest need entering the offseason was pass rusher, and Ballard addressed it by signing longtime Chiefs star Justin Houston to a two-year, $24 million deal. Houston isn’t the 20-sack player he was in his prime, but he still tallied 48 pressures on just 339 pass rush snaps last year. He remains one of the most productive per-snap rushers in the league. Armed with a surplus of second-round picks thanks to last year’s draft-day trade with the Jets for Sam Darnold, Ballard also added cornerback Rock Ya-Sin and pass rusher (slash combine superstar) Ben Banogu for even more young defensive pieces. </p>
<p id="p3kG0Z"><strong>Worst-case scenario: </strong>Houston is a notable addition, but despite having over $100 million in cap space, the Colts were cautious in free agency. Ballard re-signed starters Pierre Desir and Clayton Geathers in the secondary and largely decided to roll with last year’s unit. That won’t be a problem if all the individual pieces replicate their performance from a year ago, but if 2018 was a mirage rather than an indication of what’s to come, the defense could take a step back. </p>
<p id="mk66mm">The Colts’ floor probably hovers around 6-10 or 7-9, even if Brissett struggles. That may not seem all that bad, but Ballard built a championship-caliber roster around an elite quarterback; only the latter has been removed from the equation. A .500 season and a chance to win the AFC South would be a disappointment, considering that the Colts seemed like a contender two weeks ago. But even a disaster scenario would be tolerable for a team that may be looking for its new quarterback next spring, even after signing Brissett to a two-year, $30 million extension on Monday. </p>
<p id="6XXxw7"><strong>Stat of note: </strong>13 percent. That’s how much man coverage the Colts played through the first 14 games of the regular season last year, the second-lowest rate in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus. Eberflus has built a zone-heavy system that allows completions but limits big plays, and it was a hit in 2018. </p>
<p id="VKOg2U"><strong>Breakout player: </strong>Campbell. Most of the Colts’ young pieces have already broken out, and Campbell should be a fixture on the Red Zone Channel this season. The Ohio State product ran a 4.31 at the combine, and he was a terror with the ball in his hands in college. He’s the sort of fun chess piece that any play-caller would be thrilled to have in the fold. </p>
<h3 id="INLqnO">17. Baltimore Ravens </h3>
<p id="wrJsnz"><strong>2018 record: </strong>10-6<br><strong>2018 DVOA: </strong>15th on offense; third on defense</p>
<p id="Sn5hJd"><strong>Best-case scenario: </strong>Let the great experiment begin. The Ravens have now had a full offseason to build around second-year quarterback Lamar Jackson, and the result will probably be the strangest NFL offense we’ve seen in quite some time. Former run-game coordinator Greg Roman is now the team’s OC, and no coach in the league is better at devising quarterback runs. Roman regularly creates schemes that generate excellent angles for his linemen and put defenders in a bind. With Jackson’s rushing abilities often swinging the math in the Ravens’ favor, and free-agent signee Mark Ingram and speedy fourth-round pick Justice Hill now in the fold, Baltimore’s rushing attack should be devastating once again. </p>
<p id="ok0e4i">Rushing efficiency is a given with this group, but Baltimore’s offense could become truly terrifying if Jackson grows as a passer. The Ravens spent their first-round pick on Oklahoma burner Marquise Brown this spring and also added combine superstar Miles Boykin in the third round. Baltimore now has <em>tons </em>of speed to work with on the outside, and we’ll likely see some play-action shots down the field and plenty of gadget plays designed to get the ball in Brown’s hands. Even with the rookie receivers aboard, though, Baltimore’s passing game will often feature two tight ends and a steady diet of throws over the middle to take advantage of the space that play-action creates with linebackers flying toward the line of scrimmage. </p>
<p id="NjAsuK">The Ravens offense has garnered most of the attention this offseason, but the defense also added the best safety of his generation. Earl Thomas landing in Baltimore’s secondary is borderline unfair. He joins a group that already featured Tony Jefferson, Marlon Humphrey, Brandon Carr, and Jimmy Smith, which gives the Ravens arguably the league’s best secondary. Baltimore lost plenty of quality players in free agency this spring, but adding Thomas might be enough to overcome that exodus. The Ravens also feature one of the most creative defensive coordinators in football in Wink Martindale. No team brought the heat on blitzes as often as Baltimore did last season, and with so much talent in the secondary, Martindale’s unit is well equipped to follow the same blueprint this season. </p>
<p id="j1SPcm"><strong>Worst-case scenario: </strong>Jackson’s tough day against the Chargers in last year’s playoffs is still fresh in peoples’ minds. Los Angeles flooded the field with defensive backs and neutralized the Baltimore running game, which put the onus on Jackson to generate some offense through the air. He finished 14 of 29 on the day, and many started to question whether the Ravens’ revolutionary plan could actually work. Teams will almost certainly dare the Ravens to throw this season, and if Jackson can’t take advantage, it’s going to be a long, frustrating year for this offense. </p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="NFL: Preseason-Green Bay Packers at Baltimore Ravens" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/8WD1FMLDhVO1PRO_fwTaimekBLs=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19163126/usa_today_13213551.jpg">
<cite>Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports</cite>
<figcaption>Lamar Jackson</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="B8bOHt">More than any offensive system change, Baltimore’s defense was what led the team’s march to the playoffs last season, and the amount of talent they hemorrhaged this offseason might make that difficult to replicate. The unit’s top two pass rushers—Za’Darius Smith and Terrell Suggs—departed in free agency, and Baltimore didn’t do much to replace them. Linebacker C.J. Mosley is also gone, and the Ravens will be relying on the combination of Patrick Onwuasor and Kenny Young on the inside. This secondary can cure a lot of ills, but there are plenty of question marks about a defense that might be forced to carry this team if Jackson plateaus. </p>
<p id="cVr11Q"><strong>Stat of note: </strong>42.9. That’s the percentage of dropbacks on which Jackson used play action last season, the highest mark in the league by 7.1 percentage points, according to Pro Football Focus. The emphasis on rushing earns a lot of the headlines with this offense, but the Ravens’ approach is a massive departure in more ways than that. Jackson was also significantly better on play-action throws last season. He averaged 2.9 yards per attempt more with play action than without, the fifth highest mark in the NFL. </p>
<p class="c-end-para" id="gNPETh"><strong>Breakout player: </strong>Mark Andrews. The second-year tight end is a perfect fit for this system. He finished with 34 catches for 552 yards last season, which comes out to a ridiculous 16.2 yards per catch. He should develop into Jackson’s favorite target over the course of this season. </p>
https://www.theringer.com/nfl-preview/2019/9/3/20844924/preseason-power-rankings-part-2-broncos-49ers-ravensRobert Mays2019-09-02T06:15:00-04:002019-09-02T06:15:00-04:00NFL Preseason Power Rankings, Part 1: Fish Tanking, Frostbite, and a New York State of Dread
<figure>
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/KAQ1ckS9zftdJ2ojy6dy9qRRMjs=/400x0:2800x1800/1310x983/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/65155603/mays_2019_power_rankings_1_getty_ringer_3.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Getty Images/Ringer illustration</figcaption>
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<p>Just how bad can Miami be this season? How much reason for hope is there in Arizona? And can either New York team pull things together? </p> <p class="p--has-dropcap" id="2s24lb">Labor Day weekend always brings mixed feelings. On one hand, for people who live in cities like my hometown of Chicago, it’s the last gasp of summer. It’s the final chance for boat rides or BBQs before the crushing winter begins to set in. On the other hand, it means football is finally here. </p>
<div class="c-float-left"><aside id="zxtxFK"><div data-anthem-component="readmore" data-anthem-component-data='{"stories":[{"title":"NFL Preseason Power Rankings, Part 2: Striking Gold or Out of Luck? ","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nfl-preview/2019/9/3/20844924/preseason-power-rankings-part-2-broncos-49ers-ravens"},{"title":"NFL Preseason Power Rankings, Part 3: The Seahawks’ Stock Is Up, and the Texans’ … We’ll See","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nfl-preview/2019/9/4/20848036/preseason-power-rankings-part-3-falcons-cowboys-bears"},{"title":"NFL Preseason Power Rankings, Part 4: Philly Special Is Back and Ready for Round 2","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2019/9/5/20849931/preseason-power-rankings-part-4-patriots-chiefs-rams-saints"}]}'></div></aside></div>
<p id="MJ0TF9">The season kicks off in a few short days, and to celebrate, I’m rolling out my annual preseason power rankings, just like I’ve done every year since <em>The Ringer</em> launched in 2016. The 2019 edition is a bit odd, in the sense that there aren’t many teams that feel like out-and-out disasters. Except <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2019/8/31/20842724/miami-dolphins-laremy-tunsil-trade-process-tanking">the Dolphins</a>, that is. But at least that’s on purpose! The Jets and Raiders have notably flawed rosters, but also spent plenty of money this offseason trying to fix their problems. With Kyler Murray on offense, the Cardinals could be one of the more intriguing teams in the league. And of course, there’s the Always Fascinating New York Giants. There aren’t all that many guaranteed duds this season, but somebody’s got to be at the bottom. </p>
<p id="AiFwrt">Over the next four days, I’ll be breaking down all 32 teams into four tiers. These rankings are based heavily on a team’s roster with relevant predictions about scheme and coaching changes (elements that are much more difficult to project) worked into the mix. The goal is to make this a comprehensive look at the league as we start another season. So to kick things off, here are the eight teams I have the least hope for in 2019.</p>
<h3 id="QwPycX">32. Miami Dolphins</h3>
<p id="580TtQ"><strong>2018 record: </strong>7-9<br><strong>2018 </strong><a href="https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2018/final-2018-dvoa-ratings"><strong>Football Outsiders’ DVOA</strong></a><strong>: </strong>26th on offense; 25th on defense</p>
<p id="lyL9d8"><strong>Best-case scenario: </strong>It’s tough to decipher what the Dolphins’ brass would consider the “best” outcome for 2019. Miami’s front office, along with first-year coach Brian Flores, began a full-scale rebuild this offseason unlike any the league has seen since <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2019/8/21/20826377/cleveland-browns-the-process-sashi-brown">Sashi Brown’s experiment in Cleveland</a>. General manager Chris Grier purged the roster on both sides of the ball, starting by trading quarterback Ryan Tannehill to the Titans (and eating $18.4 million in dead money to do it) and ending with a rash of cuts this month that included T.J. McDonald, Jordan Mills, and Akeem Spence. The Dolphins also traded left tackle <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nfl-preview/2019/8/31/20842505/texans-jadeveon-clowney-trade-mess">Laremy Tunsil to Houston</a> this weekend, which doesn’t make sense even for a rebuilding team—but it’s a sign of just how thoroughly Grier and Miami’s ownership want to tear this down and start over. </p>
<p id="8eC6J1">When the Dolphins traded a second-round pick for Josh Rosen during this year’s draft, it seemed like they might have snagged a QB of the future for a fraction of the traditional price— but as it stands right now, Rosen may not get a chance to prove he’s worth that status. Ryan Fitzpatrick is the team’s starting quarterback, and even if Rosen does eventually get a shot to start, the odds that this offense can even function with its current personnel (especially along the offensive line), let alone operate well enough for him to sway Miami’s front office are slim. At this point, it’s time to embrace the Fish Tank and hope a 2-14 record leads to drafting someone like Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa and starting the next chapter of the franchise. </p>
<p id="Z3Douy"><strong>Worst-case scenario: </strong>Considering the goal here is to be terrible, the only dreaded outcome for Miami is <em>winning </em>too many games. Unfortunately for the Dolphins, Fitzpatrick might just be the guy who can make that happen. If Fitzmagic drags this team to five or six wins, that might mean suffering through another brutal season without much hope as the Dolphins wait to figure out their QB situation in 2021. </p>
<p id="OtpgtI"><strong>Stat of note: </strong>Zero. That’s how many combined games the Dolphins’ starting guards have played in the NFL. Miami is rolling with rookie third-round pick Michael Deiter on the left side and rookie undrafted free agent Shaq Calhoun on the right. Former undrafted free agent Jesse Davis, who was waived by two different teams upon entering the league in 2016, is the starting right tackle. It’s a strong bet that Miami will easily have the worst offensive line in football this season.</p>
<p id="zbeBCx"><strong>Breakout player: </strong>Christian Wilkins. Finding a breakout candidate in this smoldering pile of rubble is a challenge, but the former Clemson defensive tackle is probably the best bet. Wilkins has all the characteristics of an effective, disruptive three-technique tackle, and by all accounts could be a guy to build a franchise around. </p>
<h3 id="S9gtWK">31. Washington Redskins</h3>
<p id="elpTqn"><strong>2018 record: </strong>7-9<br><strong>2018 DVOA: </strong>28th on offense; 20th on defense </p>
<p id="vmvcU2"><strong>Best-case scenario: </strong>It’s hard to find a franchise more lost than the Redskins. The Dolphins will be bad, sure, but at least Miami has some semblance of a plan. Washington doesn’t seem to have any idea where it wants to go, let alone how to get there. This offseason, the franchise gave safety Landon Collins a six-year, $84 million deal (with $44 million guaranteed) before cutting both starting linebackers to save money against the cap. Every step forward also involves two steps back. </p>
<p id="l1WTrP">The exception might be quarterback Dwayne Haskins, whom the Redskins drafted 15th overall this spring. Washington was thrown unexpectedly into the quarterback market after Alex Smith’s horrible leg injury last season, and now may finally have a long-term answer at the sport’s most important position. The question is how they’ll handle Haskins’s rookie season. It was clear during the preseason that Haskins needs a bit more time to get acclimated to the NFL game, which led head coach Jay Gruden to name stopgap signing Case Keenum the starter in late August. The ideal outcome for the rookie might be spending half the year behind Keenum before taking over in November. If Haskins and a young core of skill-position players like running back Derrius Guice and wide receiver Terry McLaurin can get some time together down the stretch and show some promise, the Washington front office may feel better about their 2020 chances. </p>
<p id="p7sVyH">On defense, the range of outcomes is much smaller. The strength of this roster is its front four, which has the potential to be a real problem for opposing offensive lines. Da’Ron Payne, Jonathan Allen, and Matt Ioannidis make for a nasty trio of interior defenders. The hope is first-round pick Montez Sweat can team up with stalwart pass rusher Ryan Kerrigan to give Washington a similarly frightening pair of edge rushers. The team’s linebacking corps and secondary still have holes, but this unit has a relatively high floor. </p>
<p id="3OGDV8"><strong>Worst-case scenario: </strong>Bottoming out would almost certainly cost Gruden his job, but that wouldn’t necessarily be the worst outcome for the franchise’s long-term health. At this point, the only truly disastrous result this season would be Haskins’s growth being stunted. That could happen if he gets forced into action too fast (should Keenum get hurt, Haskins would be the only option as Colt McCoy continues his rehab from a leg injury) or the team’s current infrastructure ends up being as bad as it seems. Pro Bowl left tackle Trent Williams <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2019/08/29/bruce-allen-thinks-trent-williams-will-return-deangelo-hall-says-it-wont-be-before-week/">appears</a> dead set on continuing his absence from the team, and Washington’s starting left guard is human turnstile Ereck Flowers. If the Redskins’ pass-protection issues and lack of experience in their pass-catching group make it a risk for Haskins to play at all his rookie year, Washington might be better off leaving him on the bench and planning ahead for next season. </p>
<p id="73u4OQ"><strong>Stat of note: </strong>42.6 percent. That was Keenum’s completion percentage under pressure last season, which ranked 26th among 30 qualified QBs, according to Pro Football Focus. With the Vikings in 2017, Keenum led the league in that metric at 55.7 percent. It’s almost as if the playmaking success and bit of luck Keenum had with Minnesota that season wasn’t sustainable long term. </p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Washington Redskins v Atlanta Falcons" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/7WxZHaWKOuxKIYJhk136v0hxdxg=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19158794/1163262314.jpg.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>Montez Sweat </figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="hg5cgo"><strong>Breakout player: </strong>Sweat. Washington’s duo of former Alabama inside linemen are already too established to be considered breakout candidates, and the team will likely bring Guice along slowly as he recovers from an ACL tear. Sweat should see some snaps from the get-go, and he has the rare physical tools to flash immediately when given the chance opposite Kerrigan. </p>
<h3 id="TCYZHI">30. Arizona Cardinals </h3>
<p id="uwZwze"><strong>2018 record: </strong>3-13<br><strong>2018 DVOA: </strong>32nd on offense; 17th on defense </p>
<p id="Mg6GPN"><strong>Best-case scenario: </strong>There’s a significant disconnect between how good the Cardinals will probably be in 2019 and how excited people should be to watch them in Week 1. With <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nfl-preview/2019/8/14/20804948/arizona-cardinals-kliff-kingsbury-kyler-murray-nfl-trends">Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury</a> in place, seemingly anything could happen: On one hand, the offense could be a complete and utter flop; but on the other, Murray could be a star and Kingsbury could be the guru the Cardinals organization promised him to be. Arizona’s goal this year will be to prove the risks it took on its diminutive QB and unproven head coach were worth it. If that involves throwing the ball 70 percent of the time and playing a wide-open brand of offense unlike anything the league has seen before, that’s just an added bonus. Kingsbury will also try to develop his young core of pass catchers, which Arizona has spent considerable draft capital on in the past two years. Second-year receiver Christian Kirk is the most likely candidate to take a leap, but flashes from second-round pick Andy Isabella—who’s struggled to make an impact during training camp—would also be encouraging. </p>
<p id="5Rz5c8"><strong>Worst-case scenario: </strong>If Murray and Kingsbury fall flat in year one, the defense certainly won’t save the day. Patrick Peterson is suspended for the first six games of the season for violating the league’s performance-enhancing drugs policy, and Arizona is worryingly thin at cornerback—and there are questions at every other level of the defense, too. Free-agent signings like Terrell Suggs and Jordan Hicks should help matters a bit, but even if the Cardinals offense clicks from the start, they’ll likely be involved in plenty of shootouts. </p>
<p id="W2Kstz">The defense’s performance is really beside the point, though. Judgement on the 2019 campaign will solely be based on the success (or failure) of Murray, Kingsbury, and the offense. If that group thrives and Murray looks like a star, this offseason’s choices will be hailed as a success. If Kingsbury’s group never finds its footing, then this team is in serious trouble. </p>
<p id="KxnlBp"><strong>Stat of note: </strong>3.7 percent. That was Texas Tech’s sack rate during the past five seasons under Kingsbury, which ranked fourth in FBS over that stretch, <a href="https://establishtherun.com/https-wp-me-pb8qu3-2uc/">according</a> to <em>Establish the Run</em>’s Evan Silva. Kingsbury’s offense is built to get rid of the ball quickly, which should help Arizona’s recently remade offensive line. </p>
<p id="tMOkWI"><strong>Breakout player: </strong>Murray. I mean, who else could it possibly be? The no. 1 pick from this year’s draft is stepping into the same system that helped him win the Heisman Trophy last season. If Kingsbury’s offense will function at the NFL level, Murray should be the right QB to guide it. </p>
<h3 id="HQOBeu">29. Cincinnati Bengals</h3>
<p id="DrUtZm"><strong>2018 record: </strong>6-10<br><strong>2018 DVOA: </strong>19th on offense; 27th on defense </p>
<p id="TFQhrr"><strong>Best-case scenario: </strong>The 2019 Bengals are at something of a crossroads. After a decade and a half with Marvin Lewis at the helm, the franchise decided to finally move on this offseason. Superstar wide receiver A.J. Green is nursing a foot injury and is on the last year of his deal. Quarterback Andy Dalton will be 32 years old next season and will have no dead money remaining on his contract. This could be the final year that this iteration of the Bengals is together, and if that’s the case, then this season is really about gauging whether first-year head coach Zac Taylor is the right man to lead the organization into the future. If Taylor, who served as the Rams quarterbacks coach last season, can put together a capable offense with Dalton under center, it’ll be a promising sign that he’ll be able to pilot next year’s unit no matter which direction Cincinnati decides to go. Even without Green, who’s expected to miss the first few games of the season, the Bengals still have a reasonable amount of pass-catching talent with Tyler Boyd, Joe Mixon, and (<em>if</em> he can stay healthy) Tyler Eifert. Right now, Taylor’s ability to produce with those players is paramount, because he’s the only major piece of the offense that’s all but guaranteed to be back next season. </p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Cleveland Browns v Cincinnati Bengals" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/l7WLJJ0_TK3rkuaD8-UDFKhYbu4=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19158802/1080696000.jpg.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>Tyler Boyd </figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="pIboW5"><strong>Worst-case scenario: </strong>Losing first-round pick Jonah Williams to a torn labrum in late June was the worst start the Bengals could have imagined—and it’s led to a domino effect up front. Williams’s injury forced the Bengals to move Cordy Glenn back to left tackle, which makes Cincinnati weaker at two positions. Rookie fourth-round pick Michael Jordan will now start next to Glenn. Last year’s first-round pick, center Billy Price, was also recently beat out in training camp by career backup Trey Hopkins. And things don’t get much better on the right side, where the Bengals brought back uninspiring option Bobby Hart to play tackle. The scheme Taylor took from Sean McVay in Los Angeles has a history of helping alleviate troubles along the offensive line, but even that may not be enough for this group. </p>
<p id="WOsOR2">About a month after Williams went down, Cincinnati also lost the best player on its offense when Green injured his foot on a lackluster practice surface in Dayton, Ohio. We don’t need to imagine what the Bengals offense looks like without Green because we’ve seen it plenty during the past couple seasons. Again, it’s possible Taylor and the new offense can lean on Boyd and Mixon to tread water until Green returns, but this unit could really struggle as it settles into its first year in an unfamiliar scheme. </p>
<p id="Je4nBN">In the past, Cincinnati’s defense—led by Lewis—could carry the team, but that just won’t be the case this season. Overall, this group—which is now led by first-time defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo—is solid but unspectacular. The trio of Geno Atkins, Carl Lawson, and Carlos Dunlap gives Cincinnati a solid collection of players up front. William Jackson III and Jessie Bates III are both young building blocks in the secondary. But the ceiling here is probably a middle-of-the-road finish. Even with a new coaching staff in place, there just isn’t much to be excited about with this team. </p>
<p id="MIkDnY"><strong>Stat of note: </strong>Four. That’s the number of top-60 picks the Bengals have spent on offensive linemen since 2015. None of them will be starting for Cincinnati in Week 1. </p>
<p id="neTRQA"><strong>Breakout player: </strong>Bates. As a rookie last season, Bates had his share of ups and downs, but there were plenty of moments that pointed to his potential in coverage. Hopefully, with a full offseason under his belt, he’ll be a more consistent presence in 2019. </p>
<h3 id="1fCGcq">28. New York Giants</h3>
<p id="QEwli5"><strong>2018 record: </strong>5-11<br><strong>2018 DVOA: </strong>13th on offense; 24th on defense</p>
<p id="6rIKDN"><strong>Best-case scenario: </strong>This probably depends on who you ask. If the question was posed to ownership, the answer would likely involve Eli Manning having a bounceback season before officially handing the team to Daniel Jones next year. For most rational Giants fans, I assume it would be installing Jones as soon as possible and seeing how far the offense can go with him at the controls. A revamped offensive line could help fully unleash Saquon Barkley, and a healthy Evan Engram could be an effective focal point of the Giants’ passing game. That may be enough for his group to be fine with Manning at quarterback. But the Giants made a franchise-altering move this spring by drafting Jones sixth overall, and at some point, it’d be nice to see him get the chance to, ya know, alter the franchise. </p>
<p id="f8LU7c">Unlike in years past, this team’s infrastructure isn’t a risky place to put a young quarterback. The investment the Giants made into their offensive line during the past two years may not match the returns, but adding players like Kevin Zeitler and Mike Remmers to a group that already featured Nate Solder does give head coach Pat Shurmur two more proven players up front (and in Remmers’s case, on a palatable one-year, $2.5 million deal). Losing Odell Beckham Jr. is obviously a major blow, but if Sterling Shepard can return from the broken thumb he suffered early in the preseason and Golden Tate can hit the ground running after his four-game suspension ends, there’s enough receiving talent on this team to sustain a decent passing game. If things break right, Manning could probably pilot this group to an average finish and a record that approaches .500. But it’d be far more exciting for the Giants’ long-term prospects to see Jones do the same. </p>
<div class="c-float-left"><aside id="RKFwqf"><div data-anthem-component="readmore" data-anthem-component-data='{"stories":[{"title":"Eli Manning, Daniel Jones, and the New York Giants’ Own Season of ‘Succession’","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2019/8/29/20836779/new-york-giants-eli-manning-daniel-jones-quarterback-transition"}]}'></div></aside></div>
<p id="dWUfrl"><strong>Worst-case scenario: </strong>Doom for Giants fans would be watching Manning drag down an otherwise decent group of offensive talent while Jones sits on the sideline and the defense gets decimated. The QB drama with this team will get all the headlines and air time in New York, but coordinator James Bettcher’s unit is far more concerning. Prying Zeitler from the Browns meant giving up defensive end Olivier Vernon, who finished with a team-leading 46 disrupted dropbacks last season. Without Vernon, the Giants are woefully thin up front and have almost no teeth to their pass rush. At 342 pounds, first-round pick Dexter Lawrence won’t solve that problem, even if he’s effective in other areas. The situation doesn’t get much better at linebacker, which is particularly troubling because Alec Ogletree will carry a cap hit of $11.8 million this season. Of all the … interesting moves general manager Dave Gettleman has made in his year and a half with the Giants, trading fourth- and sixth-round picks to the Rams for Ogletree may be the worst. It’s possible that rookie cornerback Deandre Baker, safety Jabrill Peppers (who the Giants got in the deal for Beckham), and a reengaged Janoris Jenkins can help turn the Giants’ secondary into a strength, but it’s hard to imagine this unit as a whole being very good in 2019. </p>
<p id="nunyBR"><strong>Stat of note: </strong>77. That’s the number of pressures tallied last season by the combination of Markus Golden, Kareem Martin, and B.J. Hill—who should make up three-quarters of the Giants’ nickel pass-rush unit in 2019. It’s also one less than the number league-leader Dee Ford recorded by himself. </p>
<p id="47dVfK"><strong>Breakout player: </strong>Baker. The first-round pick suffered a knee sprain in mid-August that gave the Giants a temporary scare, but it’s <a href="https://www.nj.com/giants/2019/08/giants-rookie-deandre-baker-feeling-no-discomfort-in-sprained-knee-when-does-he-expect-to-be-back.html">reportedly</a> not serious. Baker was a proven man-coverage corner at Georgia, and if the Giants have to blitz as often as it seems like they will, they’ll need to feel comfortable leaving their outside corners without a lot of help. </p>
<p id="4vrvar"></p>
<h3 id="uZSlju">27. Detroit Lions </h3>
<p id="focUJa"><strong>2018 record: </strong>6-10<br><strong>2018 DVOA: </strong>23rd on offense; 29th on defense </p>
<p id="lWTnyL"><strong>Best-case scenario: </strong>In his year and a half on the job, Lions’ head coach Matt Patricia has made a painstaking effort to reshape this team to fit his run-heavy, defense-driven ideals. Now it’s time to find out if that was all worth it. The strength of this roster is absolutely the defensive line. After trading for Snacks Harrison mid-season and transforming their run defense in the process—the Lions handed former Patriots defensive end Trey Flowers a five-year, $90 million deal in free agency and also signed former Packers defensive tackle Mike Daniels when he was cut by Green Bay in July. Adding that duo to Harrison and 2018 surprise success Da’Shawn Hand gives Detroit one of the more talented and well-rounded defensive fronts in the entire league. </p>
<p id="lkLQaW">The rest of the Lions defense is a bit more unsettled, but there’s a scenario in which a few things fall into place and this group turns a corner. Second-round linebacker Jahlani Tavai is the type of versatile second-level player Patricia loved in New England, and free-agent cornerback Justin Coleman gives Detroit a reliable option in the slot. And the Lions are hoping Rashaan Melvin, whom they signed on a relatively risk-free $2.2 million deal, can regain his 2017 form as the outside corner opposite superstar Darius Slay. It’s a new-look group for Detroit this year, and the Lions want the results to look that way, too. </p>
<p id="OrJhtC">The offense has undergone a transformation during the past two offseasons, and the unit’s approach under first-year coordinator Darrell Bevell should be considerably different than what Detroit did with Jim Bob Cooter. After signing tight end Jesse James in free agency, the Lions spent this year’s eighth overall pick on Iowa tight end T.J. Hockenson. Detroit’s direction seems to indicate they’re looking to get bigger and become more run-focused with second-year back Kerryon Johnson, who looked excellent as a rookie last year before missing the final six games of the season with a knee injury. If the Lions can mix an effective ground game with some scattered play-action shots to Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones Jr. and their pair of tight ends, the dramatically different strategy on offense could be a positive … </p>
<p id="elSVLl"><strong>Worst-case scenario: </strong>… but there are reasons to be skeptical. If the past few seasons have taught us anything about how to create an effective running game in the NFL, it’s that throwing more big bodies onto the field isn’t the answer. The Rams thrived on the ground recently in large part because they took tight ends <em>off </em>the field. The Lions seem to want to do the opposite. Matthew Stafford also isn’t the first name that comes to mind when you think of play-action success: He ranked dead last in play-action percentage among qualified QBs in two of the past three seasons. That may be a product of the Lions’ scheme and lack of running game, but it still doesn’t bode well for a team planning to lean more on play-action concepts in 2019. </p>
<p id="iCFLDj">As for all those potential positive breaks on defense, they could just as easily go the other way. If Tavai doesn’t end up being an immediate contributor, the Lions are woefully thin at linebacker, and Melvin may not be the answer opposite Slay. This defense should be much better this season, but if the offense turns into a run-heavy slog, it won’t be enough to drag this team to the finish it wants. </p>
<p id="pSlBk3"><strong>Stat of note: </strong>150. That’s how many snaps the Lions used 12 personnel (one running back, two tight ends, and two receivers) on in 2018. That accounted for 15 percent of their offensive plays, which was lower than the league average of 17 percent. Even with slot receiver Danny Amendola coming to the team in free agency, expect that number to be a lot higher in 2019. </p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Green Bay Packers v Detroit Lions" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ToF5yVw2A0NiLweQVPA0GJTPgAQ=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19158808/1051009354.jpg.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>Da’Shawn Hand</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="p4Itqq"><strong>Breakout player: </strong>Hand. He finished with only three sacks as a rookie, but the Alabama product showed plenty of versatility along the defensive line. He’s surrounded by talent up front, and should get a lot of one-on-one chances in year two. </p>
<h3 id="JnCYLt">26. Oakland Raiders</h3>
<p id="ItF3EO"><strong>2018 record: </strong>4-12<br><strong>2018 DVOA: </strong>25th on offense; 30th on defense</p>
<p id="uJRTJ7"><strong>Best-case scenario: </strong>The Raiders’ path to relevance is fairly straightforward. Head coach Jon Gruden’s team spent a small fortune this offseason adding talent to its offense and providing Derek Carr with a supporting cast who can lift him back to his 2016 form. That haul started with Antonio Brown, who is one of the best offensive players in football when he has a helmet and two working feet. At the height of his powers, Brown is a transformative talent, a player who reconfigures the geometry of an entire defense and elevates both his quarterback and fellow receivers just by stepping onto the field. And while the trade for Brown may have been the start of Oakland’s overhaul, it was hardly the end. The Raiders also handed former Chargers receiver Tyrell Williams a four-year, $44.3 million deal (one that includes no guaranteed money after this season). They spent a fifth-round pick on former Clemson stalwart Hunter Renfrow, who profiles as the team’s starting slot receiver. Athletic tight end Darren Waller played only four games last season after missing 2017 due to a suspension for repeated substance issue violations, but is a popular pick to burst onto the scene. This group looks <em>much </em>different than it did last season, and all that turnover could lead to a renaissance for Carr and this passing offense. </p>
<p id="hmQA44">Oakland also made substantial moves to update its personnel up front and in the backfield. The Raiders handed former Patriots tackle Trent Brown a four-year, $66 million deal with $36.3 million guaranteed in the first two years. General manager Mike Mayock brought in Richie Incognito to start at left guard. Pro Bowl fixture Rodney Hudson just signed a three-year, $33.75 million deal that made him the highest-paid center in football in terms of average annual value. There are legitimate questions about 2018 first-round pick Kolton Miller’s viability at left tackle and right guard Gabe Jackson’s health after he suffered a knee injury in early August, but this group is undeniably improved. And they’ll be paving the way for first-round running back Josh Jacobs, who should give the Raiders a dual-threat, high-volume back from the start. </p>
<p id="BqmVOG">There’s talent here! The Raiders spent enough this offseason to guarantee that. The question is whether Carr can take full advantage of it. Carr was tied for the lowest average depth of target in the league last season at 6.7 yards. If he’s unwilling to push the ball downfield with this group of receivers, Oakland will fall well short of its offensive potential. But if he can fully utilize deep threats like Brown and Williams, this offense could reach a gear that few anticipate. </p>
<p id="WSsalV"><strong>Worst-case scenario: </strong>If Carr struggles and the offense lags, this season could be yet another disaster in Oakland. This defense still has a <em>long </em>way to go. The Raiders used this year’s fourth overall pick on Clemson defensive end Clelin Ferrell, and they’ll lean on the rookie in a big way this season. Arden Key, the team’s 2018 third-round pick, could take a step forward in his second season, but this team is desperately hurting for pass rushers. </p>
<p id="gbXVtx">The linebacking corps also lacks much high-end talent, and that prompted Oakland to take a chance on Vontaze Burfict this offseason. Safety figures to be a strength with Karl Joseph and first-round pick Johnathan Abram patrolling the back end and nickel and free-agent signee Lamarcus Joyner sliding in as the slot cornerback. But cornerback remains a concern if 2017 first-round pick Gareon Conley can’t build on a somewhat promising second season. Even if the Raiders get some unexpected contributions from their younger players, this unit still has too many holes to get very far. The offense will either have to carry Oakland this season, or the Raiders may be looking for a new QB in 2020. </p>
<p id="kef94I"><strong>Stat of note: </strong>3.5 percent. That was the Raiders’ adjusted sack rate last season, which ranked dead last in the NFL, according to Football Outsiders. The gap between the Raiders and the Dolphins, who ranked 28th, was almost the same as the gap between the Dolphins and Vikings, who led the league at 9.3 percent. </p>
<p id="XS6OmD"><strong>Breakout player:</strong> Jacobs. He’s by far the no. 1 option in the backfield, and it’d be a surprise to see any other backs on the roster cut into his touches. Drafting any running back in the first round is dubious, but he should give this team a boost as both a runner and receiver in 2019. </p>
<h3 id="683kyk">25. New York Jets </h3>
<p id="3YaYLK"><strong>2018 record: </strong>4-12<br><strong>2018 DVOA: </strong>29th on offense; 21st on defense </p>
<p id="BzUOMn"><strong>Best-case scenario: </strong>If Sam Darnold can be anything close to the quarterback he was late in his rookie year for the majority of this season, Jets fans will celebrate in the street. After returning from injury in Week 14, Darnold averaged 8.05 adjusted yards per attempt and completed 64 percent of his passes. Nothing about his early rookie-season performance should discourage fans from thinking he’s the answer, and the Jets made a point to add talent to their pass-catching group this offseason to support their young QB. The big name in that group is obviously Le’Veon Bell, but Jamison Crowder should give Darnold yet another option in the short to intermediate areas of the field. Plus, possession receiver Quincy Enunwa and vertical option Robby Anderson give the Jets a varied collection of skill sets. Add tight end Chris Herndon to the mix after he returns from a four-game suspension for violating the league’s substance abuse policy, and this receiving corps gets interesting in a hurry. </p>
<p id="Xtpzyw">But no matter who he’s throwing to, Darnold is the key to the Jets’ hopes in 2019 and beyond. If he can take a significant step this fall and enter into the same tier as other talented young passers like Baker Mayfield, that will do more for this offense than any personnel moves could.</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="New Orleans Saints v New York Jets" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/qV-5KOXhBgnlIgzAhupe8Ezg1V0=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19158813/1170572890.jpg.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Al Pereira/Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>Sam Darnold</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="J8ab7r"><strong>Worst-case scenario: </strong>First-year coach Adam Gase’s unremarkable three-year tenure with the Dolphins gives little reason to think he’s the right man to guide the Jets’ relatively promising future, or get the most out of Darnold. Yet the franchise still decided to hand him temporary personnel control on top of his coaching duties after former general manager Mike Maccagnan was fired in May. (The team has since hired former Eagles executive Joe Douglas.)</p>
<p id="KlBgJ1">Outside of Gase and a stunted year from Darnold, the other area that could hold this team back is the offensive line. The hope is that Pro Bowl guard Kelechi Osemele can have a bounceback year after escaping the clutches of Tom Cable with the Raiders. And the Jets finally addressed their hole at the center position by coaxing Ryan Kalil out of retirement—though that signing is more about providing Darnold with a veteran presence than anything. This group still has a major hole at right tackle, and left tackle Kelvin Beachum isn’t the best option on the other side. </p>
<div class="c-float-left"><aside id="VKoQhd"><div data-anthem-component="readmore" data-anthem-component-data='{"stories":[{"title":"Adam Gase Is Armed With a QB of the Future. He’s Also Carrying the Weight of the Jets’ Past.","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2019/8/29/20838276/new-york-jets-adam-gase-sam-darnold"},{"title":"Le’Veon Bell Could Be the Next Jets Free Agent Disaster—or Their Offensive Savior ","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nfl-preview/2019/8/29/20837836/new-york-jets-leveon-bell-signing-sam-darnold"},{"title":"Sam Darnold Already Looks Like 2019’s Breakout Sophomore Quarterback","url":"https://www.theringer.com/nfl-preview/2019/8/29/20837718/sam-darnold-sophomore-breakout-candidate"}]}'></div></aside></div>
<p id="H9ua6K">Then there’s the defense. Former Browns coordinator and perpetual yeller Gregg Williams takes over a unit with plenty of talent on the interior of the defensive line and not much else. Leonard Williams, third overall pick Quinnen Williams, and Henry Anderson will give teams plenty of trouble, but this unit doesn’t have much in the way of edge talent. That would seem to mesh well with Williams’s blitz-heavy scheme, but the Jets’ corners likely won’t do well without much help—outside of the severely overpaid yet serviceable Trumaine Johnson, this team’s cornerback depth is <em>rough. </em>Jamal Adams is still a superstar on the back end, though that will make it only more depressing when Williams starts lining him up 25 yards behind the line of scrimmage for no reason. To fortify the linebacking corps, the Jets signed the solid C.J. Mosley to a market-setting deal, which was roundly panned by everyone in the football world. That’s always good. </p>
<p id="KO5bes"><strong>Stat of note: </strong>32nd. That’s where the Jets ranked on second-and-long runs last season by Football Outsiders’ DVOA, according to the FO Almanac. Teams shouldn’t run the ball on second-and-long, but when they do, it <em>should </em>gain more than the 3.5 yards per carry the Jets averaged. No matter the price tag, Bell is a massive backfield upgrade. </p>
<p class="c-end-para" id="UjiRhW"><strong>Breakout player: </strong>Quinnen Williams. The rookie isn’t technically listed as a starter as the Jets enter the season, but he’s simply got too much talent to be held down for long. The combination of him and Leonard Williams on the inside will be a blast. </p>
https://www.theringer.com/nfl-preview/2019/9/2/20841382/preseason-power-rankings-part-1-giants-raiders-jets-cardinalsRobert Mays